So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
I think you meant Bankers, not Bakers.
But it wouldn't only be the bankers who will be hurt, all those connected in the financial services industry will also be buggered senseless, and all those tax revenues are lost, and well that means spending cuts, instead of giving £350m a week extra to the NHS, Boris might have to take £350m a week away from the NHS
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
You could easily tweak that to a job offer > £x, and an upper limit/transition period.
I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
Those are not the two available options necessarily. Our EU friends can offer us, or decline to offer us, whatever they like. If they don't want to offer the full EEA Monty, no-one can force them to. Or if they want to offer the deal Southam described, that would be very hard indeed for a UK politician to decline.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Well that's the Union saved, at least for a while. The idea that Scotland could take over our opt-outs and vetoes was pie in the sky. Glad to see a dose of reality served.
OK, my fantasy Labour snap GE EU/Immigration Section of the manifesto:
BREXIT POLICY - Pause invocation of article 50 until at least Jan 2017. - Gain a memo of understanding with EFTA to join and preserve EEA status - Devise economic tests which are genuine indicators of economic crisis, and will need to be passed for Brexit to proceed. - Invoke A50 when all three of the above are in place. - If these conditions are not in place by Jan 2018, call a second referendum in which the options will be to 'Immediately trigger A50' or 'Suspend indefinitely A50 and remain in EU'.
MIGRATION / POPULATION POLICY: - Make the case that falling working age population and increase in pensioner population make some level of immigration highly desirable and define and commit to publish every 2 years an ideal level of immigration that would serve long-term demographics. This level would maintains working / childbearing age population (on current pension age), and ultimately be consistent with a long-term stable population. 120-160k/yr is a likely initial range, but would not be treated as a committed target. - Retain EFTA free movement, but make full use of benefit flexibility EFTA allows, to indirectly influence EU immigration. (Fight for financial passporting in return, although relax about some FS leaving London in a controlled way) - Target reduction in visa non-EU net immigration to around 50000 within 3 years (Universities to retain 9k fee cap during transition, and transitional arrangements tbc for business) - Introduction of variable pension age considered for those born after 5/4/61, and implemented in event of Brexit without EFTA. Pension age will be announced annually for individual age ranges, at least 10 years in advance of retirement date, with age variable by up to 4 months each year. (i.e. this will be an explicit price for any reduction in immigration) - Note contribution of tax-paying immigration to deficit reduction, and say extra tax receipts from immigration will be split 50:50 between deficit reduction and extra services to support population growth until deficit is within target, then fully committed to extra services at that point. - Budget pot to be set up from above for rapid funding for relief plans to areas and sectors particularly affected by immigration (e.g. the wider Fens / agriculture) - Update discrimination laws to include or make more explicit that discrimination against white British people is unlawful. - Asylum seekers who are not from recognised source countries or have engaged in forms of arrival that are either dangerous or help sustain people trafficking to be de-prioritised and obliged to process their claims in person through offices in areas of low inward migration (e.g. north of Scotland) and asylum detention to be moved to those areas. - Greater rights with respect to short-term temporary employment for asylum seekers being processed who are deemed to have played by the rules.
After all Rajoy has such a strong mandate in Spain and is in no way likely to end up out in the cold as the only possible path to a workable Spanish government.
I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
Those are not the two available options necessarily. Our EU friends can offer us, or decline to offer us, whatever they like. If they don't want to offer the full EEA Monty, no-one can force them to. Or if they want to offer the deal Southam described, that would be very hard indeed for a UK politician to decline.
This is a God-awful mess by any standard.
I think we'd walk out of the exit door if that was the only offer on the table and try our luck with prime brokering and looser regulations.
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.
We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
You could easily tweak that to a job offer > £x, and an upper limit/transition period.
Yes. There are several variations of "Free Movement" that could result, yet a lot of media commentators see only the status quo or a points-based visa system.
Something along the lines of Hannan's EEA proposal - for freedom of labour rather than freedom of welfare - will keep the majority of the Leave vote onside, as it will reduce the pull factors currently influencing immigration from the Continent.
I picked up a copy of the Telegraph yesterday. It was cover-to-cover doom and gloom, with multiple calls for the government to Do Something to keep us in the Single Market. Even CityAM today was much the same.
Re India-EU, the Indian government used to have a very detailed set of pages on EU negotiations, but I can't seem to find it. (They had one on EFTA negotiations too.)
I don't know if they're removed it, or (more likely) if my Google Fu skills are just lacking today.
The Deputy Finance Minister was telling the FT that he felt it would be much easier to deal with us as a single country just a few days ago.
The South Koreans, New Zealanders and Australians have all been talking about bi-lateral deals also.
Mr Lilico was suggesting we look to political union/grouping with Canada, NZ, and Australia.
"A CANZUK union would be a very significant geopolitical player, with a combined GDP of about three quarters of that of China, the fourth largest economic area in the world. It would have the largest land area of any union. It would have the third largest defence expenditure. It would be a very significant geopolitical player. "
Interesting tidbit (which illustrates how ponderous trade talks can be). The draft FTA with Singapore was completed in October 2014. It was submitted to the ECJ in July 2015. It's not yet been ratified.
For the partisan crowd, it's genuinely not a dig at the EU. It should serve as a cautionary warning to all of us that trade agreements aren't necessarily swiftly hammered out over a pint on the back of a fag packet.
Isnt that part of the malaise though? EU trade agreements need to be ratified by all the member states. Organised labour and in general producer interests are not fans of free trade. The process runs at the speed of the slowest country. Look how difficult politically free trade is for american politicians, in a nation that is suppose to be pretty darn
Bilateral agreements can be knocked out fairly quickly if both countries are keen to do so. Of course detail is important...
Watson now favourite as next Leader, suggesting he's the most likely to challenge. Best odds 11/4 from 7/2 this morning. Eagle out from 2/1 to 3/1. No-one else remotely in the frame.
Not sure either is all that good value, as it requires at least evens that Corbyn loses and I can't see either having a chance at a second shot.
Well that's the Union saved, at least for a while. The idea that Scotland could take over our opt-outs and vetoes was pie in the sky. Glad to see a dose of reality served.
It hasn't changed that aspect at all.
If Scotland is to inherit the UK membership it is by QMV and does not involve the Spanish veto.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
This is the problem. Brexit from the EU isn't mutually assured destruction for both parties. It's an Indo-Pak nuclear war. To be avoided at all costs but one side anhilated the other gravely injured but it's continuity of Civilisation intact. We've gravely misjudged the strength of our negotiating hand.
Whatever happens to Labour, they are more unelectable now than they have ever been in their history, and that's quite something when you consider that has mostly been their default status. Corbyn will not go, unless McDonnell and Watson beg him to, and I'm not sure even then. He is pathologically stubborn to the point of destruction. If there's a leadership contest with him on the ballot paper, he'll win by a landslide, which will result in the splitting of the Labour party. It's conceivable you could have two Labour leaders at future PMQs. Could there even be mass defections to the Limp Dims? Perhaps not, as little Timmy Farron is about as effective as Corbyn.
All this leads to an enormous opportunity for the Tories, should they unite (and they will) around the new leader. They MUST call an early election, or risk the same fate as Gordon Brown in 2010.
Watson now favourite as next Leader, suggesting he's the most likely to challenge. Best odds 11/4 from 7/2 this morning. Eagle out from 2/1 to 3/1. No-one else remotely in the frame.
Not sure either is all that good value, as it requires at least evens that Corbyn loses and I can't see either having a chance at a second shot.
PS. Ignore all that. Oddschecker clearly way behind Betfair cf Rod Crosby.
Looks like the coup has failed. Corbyn going nowhere, Eagle would be deselected by her own constituency if she stood, and be demolished by Corbyn in a ballot anyhow - "the lesser of two Eagles", as the Corbynites briefed this morning...
I raised this very point this morning. The MPs want rid but what about the CLPs who may then threaten deselection on those that try to remove or stand against Jez.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Labour MPs have to unite sufficiently around one or two initial candidates. Should be locked in a room in a pretty exact replica of papal enclave, until they do so.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
Oh, that might be possible.
Well it's just a rumour for now as to what was being tabled at the gang of six meeting.
I've been canvassing Corbyn's local fan club - they are more convinced than ever that he is Superman fighting off the evil traitors. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he won again.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!
It doesn't make sense. EEA (and Swiss) citizens have the same rights as EU citizens in this regard. That's the whole point about the freedom of movement directive applying to the EEA countries.
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
Looks like the coup has failed. Corbyn going nowhere, Eagle would be deselected by her own constituency if she stood, and be demolished by Corbyn in a ballot anyhow - "the lesser of two Eagles", as the Corbynites briefed this morning...
I raised this very point this morning. The MPs want rid but what about the CLPs who may then threaten deselection on those that try to remove or stand against Jez.
It's corbynite but not as we know it.....
Be aware though that the £3 "supporters" don't have a vote in MP selections.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.
What did they expect? There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.
The Daily Mail has picked up this story which takes place not 800 yards from my front door.
This is why I voted LEAVE last Thursday - not because of racism or xenophobia but because the EU has fundamentally failed large numbers of people.
I'll be more controversial - I blame the Single Market which sucks wealth from the poorest areas to the richest and since people will always go to the money, the people come too. An entire family come looking for work and finish up under the North Circular Road.
There are multiple failings - the family itself is not beyond reproach for their actions but the lesson remains - if people think there is a better life for them somewhere and they can get there, they will. It's human nature and I understand it.
I also see a third of Lithuanians have emigrated since the country joined the EU - what are the statistics for the other Baltic states and parts of Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia - I don't know.
What I do know is the EU has failed on a human level - instead of helping the economic regeneration of eastern Europe after 1989, it created the Single Market which has become a pool of cheap labour to power the British and German economies but without recognition of the social, political, cultural and above all human implications for the continent.
No Rajoy hasn't saved the Union. Or at least not in the way that you think. He's saying Scotland gets what the UK gets. Which improves Nicola's hand in the longer term. Which weakens the PM's hand. Which nudges A50 a bit further down the tracks.
After all Rajoy has such a strong mandate in Spain and is in no way likely to end up out in the cold as the only possible path to a workable Spanish government.
Is the concept of being a self-governing nation really so abhorrent to those in favour of Scotland leaving the UK? Do you have to be either a subset of the UK, or a subset of the EU?
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn than a centre left one with a chance of being the government. Labour members are happy to help him achieve that goal. He is home and dry.
No Rajoy hasn't saved the Union. Or at least not in the way that you think. He's saying Scotland gets what the UK gets. Which improves Nicola's hand in the longer term. Which weakens the PM's hand. Which nudges A50 a bit further down the tracks.
Rajoy has his own issues with Catalonia and other parts of regional Spain. He is politically unable to offer a separatist region a separate deal - whatever he offers to Edinburgh, Barcelona will want one day.
If Rajoy is even still there (unlikely) he'll be demanding Scotland gets in so the CFP doesnt collapse.
The situation is so extraordinarily fluid that Spain's position is utterly rigid until it isn't and frankly the only UK leader that has a grip is Nicola Sturgeon :
Dave - Demob happy Jezza - Mob happy Boris - Happy not to be seen Gove - Not seen and not heard Farron - As Above-lite Ruth - The Lioness of the North has lost her choppers Kezia - Found her voice months too late Falconer - Thought to be on holiday in the Bermuda Triangle.
I seem to have entered a nether world in which I am right about absolutely everything (except England losing to Iceland).
That said, if Rajoy were no longer Spanish PM the situation might change very quickly. The Scottish situation is not analogous to Catalonia declaring independence and then looking for fast track EU entry.
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn than a centre left one with a chance of being the government. Labour members are happy to help him achieve that goal. He is home and dry.
If there was a leadership contest would you join back to vote?
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.
I seem to have entered a nether world in which I am right about absolutely everything (except England losing to Iceland).
That said, if Rajoy were no longer Spanish PM the situation might change very quickly. The Scottish situation is not analogous to Catalonia declaring independence and then looking for fast track EU entry.
Speaking from experience, the nether world doesn't last as long as you hoped, so enjoy it whilst it lasts.
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
The worrying thing is, would he make that choice?
Well Cameron did one thing right in recognising quickly that our best piece of leverage was the risk to the EU of being left in limbo with no Article 50, whilst dissenters in various other EU states weigh up their options. Of maybe he just didn't want his name on it so arrived at the right tactic by accident.
But the Leave campaign has been warned from the beginning that the UK's position would be poor, and all we got back from them was some crap about how we were such a large economy etc. so everyone would offer us amazing terms.
What did they expect? There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.
Quite so. And the rUK trade links for Scotland are worth approximately 8x what the EU trade is worth so the critical issue is whether Scotland can have a single market with rUK as we have had for the last 300 years or so.
If rUK stay in the single market then the single market between Scotland and rUK remains intact so independence and an application to join the EU is on the table. If the UK is not in the single market an independent Scotland would be committing suicide by applying. The SNP need to wait and see what the outcome is. Ironically, not being in the Single Market makes the chances of the UK breaking up much less but I still think we should go for it.
So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!
Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?
The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.
Good luck Boris :-D
In order to be able to damage our economy by cutting immigration we will damage it by losing passporting. Cunning.
That's the choice Boris will get. He'll have to turn it down. But he'll be turning down immigration controls to save bankers.
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
The worrying thing is, would he make that choice?
No Tory PM could walk away from the City like that. Frankly, no PM could. But it's only a Tory one that could get us into this ridiculous position in the first place.
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.
If we are in the EEA the rules apply exactly the same as they do in the EU to the basic principle of freedom of movement. It is freedom of movement for EEA citizens not just EU citizens.
As I've said time and again, mass immigration is caused by a poorly designed benefits system and an education system that isn't fit for purpose.
Fining universities for admitting foreign students would put a rocket up them as far as helping to improve British pre-university education is concerned. Better still, make the universities do some community service, teaching pre-university students in Britain. I don't mean doing PR for their own institutions, saying how they fall over themselves to try to get oiks to apply from the dirtiest smelliest areas but sadly the oiks are just so unwilling, being dirty feckless oiks. Measure them on results. If they don't admit more British students, increase the amount of community teaching service they have to do the next year. They know their subject? Well they can teach it to those who don't. If they can't, they don't know it properly.
Come on, Oxford, Cambridge, others in the golden triangle and the Russell Group, you can manage it. It is British people who pay tax so that British universities don't have to. Ban them from spending money on recruitment drives abroad, in places such as China and Saudi.
Of course this will never happen, because the structure of the British education system has elitism written all the way through it as if it were a stick of Brighton rock.
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn than a centre left one with a chance of being the government. Labour members are happy to help him achieve that goal. He is home and dry.
If there was a leadership contest would you join back to vote?
Of course. You have to try. But Corbyn will win. The membership would prefer a Tory government to a Labour party led by someone who is not Jeremy Corbyn.
There is so little liquidity on the market that i wouldn't pay any attention to it.
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
There is no way on God's earth that he is going. The prize is too big. A far left party with 10% of the vote is far more important to Corbyn...
The Daily Mail has picked up this story which takes place not 800 yards from my front door.
This is why I voted LEAVE last Thursday - not because of racism or xenophobia but because the EU has fundamentally failed large numbers of people.
I'll be more controversial - I blame the Single Market which sucks wealth from the poorest areas to the richest and since people will always go to the money, the people come too. An entire family come looking for work and finish up under the North Circular Road.
There are multiple failings - the family itself is not beyond reproach for their actions but the lesson remains - if people think there is a better life for them somewhere and they can get there, they will. It's human nature and I understand it.
I also see a third of Lithuanians have emigrated since the country joined the EU - what are the statistics for the other Baltic states and parts of Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia - I don't know.
What I do know is the EU has failed on a human level - instead of helping the economic regeneration of eastern Europe after 1989, it created the Single Market which has become a pool of cheap labour to power the British and German economies but without recognition of the social, political, cultural and above all human implications for the continent.
I did some research and posted on it last week. Poland is in trouble. It has a low fertility rate and high emigration. They're looking to import Belorussians to help look after the Polish elderly, fix the Polish boilers and whatnot. The expectation is that the Polish emigres are not going to return (the average salary in Poland is around a third of the UK).
I completely agree with your comments. When we talk about immigration, we're consistently looking down the wrong end of the telescope. We've performed a kind of intellectual beggar-thy-neighbour, and now complain about it.
If Rajoy is even still there (unlikely) he'll be demanding Scotland gets in so the CFP doesnt collapse.
The situation is so extraordinarily fluid that Spain's position is utterly rigid until it isn't and frankly the only UK leader that has a grip is Nicola Sturgeon :
Dave - Demob happy Jezza - Mob happy Boris - Happy not to be seen Gove - Not seen and not heard Farron - As Above-lite Ruth - The Lioness of the North has lost her choppers Kezia - Found her voice months too late Falconer - Thought to be on holiday in the Bermuda Triangle.
TBH I think that’s a bit hard on Farron. He’s doing his damndest to be heard but the London Media have decided no, and that seems to be it.
On topic, presumably the rules for an election will be set by the NEC. Do we know which way it would be likely to go in terms of questions that might favour Corbyn or hinder him?
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.
If we are in the EEA the rules apply exactly the same as they do in the EU to the basic principle of freedom of movement. It is freedom of movement for EEA citizens not just EU citizens.
Do they have to be treated as if they were UK citizens? Housing benefit, tax credits, NHS etc?
@euanmccolm: make no mistake, alex salmond came within a few hundred thousand votes of being boris in 2014.
Whilst there would obviously still have been massive market turmoil - possibly large than what we are seeing now - I can say with confidence that Salmond would have at least have had a fucking plan which would be being enacted right now.
Corbyn is about to aannounce that Blair should be tried for war crimes. Can you imagine how many Labour members are going to join that day ?
Jez will ascend to the heavens before stepping down in their eyes.
Don't profess to know the machinations of the Labour Party but could some of the recent events b connected to Chilcott. In other words if Corbyn is back on the back benches then it limits the damage he can actually do to the Balirites from the depart have box as LOTO , many of which are the ones that agreed to the war and have just resigned and issued a vote of no confidence.
What did they expect? There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.
Quite so. And the rUK trade links for Scotland are worth approximately 8x what the EU trade is worth so the critical issue is whether Scotland can have a single market with rUK as we have had for the last 300 years or so.
If rUK stay in the single market then the single market between Scotland and rUK remains intact so independence and an application to join the EU is on the table. If the UK is not in the single market an independent Scotland would be committing suicide by applying. The SNP need to wait and see what the outcome is. Ironically, not being in the Single Market makes the chances of the UK breaking up much less but I still think we should go for it.
Presumably an independent Scotland that remained a member of the EU would like to have the same relationship with the UK as the Republic of Ireland. Why would this not be viable?
Mr Hannan seemed to suggest that EEA is free movement of _Labour_ only. It required a solid job offer, and included no access to state services/benefits.
If he suggested that, he was being economical with the truth, which he of all people must know.
Richard, this is the comprise I've heard on free movement, the EU will increase from 90 days to 180 days the period in which a person is ineligible for state assistance. The change will be made across the EU. I think that will be enough for us to sign up to all four freedoms.
State assistance cannot apply to a UK out of the EU. If UK citizens are no longer EU citizens, EU citizens have no entitlement to be treated like UK citizens.
Hope that makes sense!
It would still apply, as Richard N has pointed out on many, many occasions, the free movement clause in the EEA agreement is identical to the one written into the EU treaties.
If the UK is not an EU member state, being an EU citizen in the UK is being a foreign national.
No, but as a part of the EEA agreement we would recognise EU citizens and that they have the same rights as our own citizens. It would be no different. The only way to stop mass migration is to ensure demand for workers can be filled by UK citizens which means improving our education system and crucially make it much more difficult to be unproductive.
@lindayueh: SMMT: UK car industry needs “unrestricted & reciprocal access” to Single Market or risk becoming 2nd tier;>800k jobs https://t.co/9TTon5oaCd
Comments
But it wouldn't only be the bankers who will be hurt, all those connected in the financial services industry will also be buggered senseless, and all those tax revenues are lost, and well that means spending cuts, instead of giving £350m a week extra to the NHS, Boris might have to take £350m a week away from the NHS
If Corbyn loses will there be a left wing party? Seems likely
Either way if the tories can agree on a leader without too much division and manage Brexit halfway reasonably then it's looking great for them, no?
You could easily tweak that to a job offer > £x, and an upper limit/transition period.
https://twitter.com/AlanRoden/status/748140444073234432
This is a God-awful mess by any standard.
BREXIT POLICY
- Pause invocation of article 50 until at least Jan 2017.
- Gain a memo of understanding with EFTA to join and preserve EEA status
- Devise economic tests which are genuine indicators of economic crisis, and will need to be passed for Brexit to proceed.
- Invoke A50 when all three of the above are in place.
- If these conditions are not in place by Jan 2018, call a second referendum in which the options will be to 'Immediately trigger A50' or 'Suspend indefinitely A50 and remain in EU'.
MIGRATION / POPULATION POLICY:
- Make the case that falling working age population and increase in pensioner population make some level of immigration highly desirable and define and commit to publish every 2 years an ideal level of immigration that would serve long-term demographics. This level would maintains working / childbearing age population (on current pension age), and ultimately be consistent with a long-term stable population. 120-160k/yr is a likely initial range, but would not be treated as a committed target.
- Retain EFTA free movement, but make full use of benefit flexibility EFTA allows, to indirectly influence EU immigration.
(Fight for financial passporting in return, although relax about some FS leaving London in a controlled way)
- Target reduction in visa non-EU net immigration to around 50000 within 3 years
(Universities to retain 9k fee cap during transition, and transitional arrangements tbc for business)
- Introduction of variable pension age considered for those born after 5/4/61, and implemented in event of Brexit without EFTA. Pension age will be announced annually for individual age ranges, at least 10 years in advance of retirement date, with age variable by up to 4 months each year. (i.e. this will be an explicit price for any reduction in immigration)
- Note contribution of tax-paying immigration to deficit reduction, and say extra tax receipts from immigration will be split 50:50 between deficit reduction and extra services to support population growth until deficit is within target, then fully committed to extra services at that point.
- Budget pot to be set up from above for rapid funding for relief plans to areas and sectors particularly affected by immigration (e.g. the wider Fens / agriculture)
- Update discrimination laws to include or make more explicit that discrimination against white British people is unlawful.
- Asylum seekers who are not from recognised source countries or have engaged in forms of arrival that are either dangerous or help sustain people trafficking to be de-prioritised and obliged to process their claims in person through offices in areas of low inward migration (e.g. north of Scotland) and asylum detention to be moved to those areas.
- Greater rights with respect to short-term temporary employment for asylum seekers being processed who are deemed to have played by the rules.
Eagle out to 11 on BF...
After all Rajoy has such a strong mandate in Spain and is in no way likely to end up out in the cold as the only possible path to a workable Spanish government.
Next official meeting to discuss Brexit is September 16th in Bratislava.
Something along the lines of Hannan's EEA proposal - for freedom of labour rather than freedom of welfare - will keep the majority of the Leave vote onside, as it will reduce the pull factors currently influencing immigration from the Continent.
Bilateral agreements can be knocked out fairly quickly if both countries are keen to do so. Of course detail is important...
Not sure either is all that good value, as it requires at least evens that Corbyn loses and I can't see either having a chance at a second shot.
If Scotland is to inherit the UK membership it is by QMV and does not involve the Spanish veto.
@georgeeaton: John McDonnell writes exclusively for the NS: "Jeremy is not standing down .... Our members are sovereign."
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2016/06/jeremy-corbyn-not-standing-down-172-people-cannot-drown-out-democracy
Bluff Jezza into resigning. There's no Plan B.
All this leads to an enormous opportunity for the Tories, should they unite (and they will) around the new leader. They MUST call an early election, or risk the same fate as Gordon Brown in 2010.
It's corbynite but not as we know it.....
Hope that makes sense!
I personally think he'll go once he gets some kind of commitment that a fellow Corbeiber gets on the list, and Tom Watson will take over in this period.
Well that would be sensible thing to do. But what do I know?
Boris bats for the bankers
Boris boosts the bankers
Boris says no to immigration controls to save the bankers
And so on.
Leave has totally misread the balance of strength in this negotiation. You take out free trade - both sides want that- and what levers does the UK have left? The square root of none, I'd say.
There's no way a second Scottish referendum can take place during the EU negotiations, there would be too many balls in the air at the same time and people would be voting on hypothetical results of in-progress negotiations.
http://www.barkinganddagenhampost.co.uk/news/http_www_barkinganddagenhampost_co_uk_news_romanian_family_of_16_sleeping_under_north_circular_in_barking_1_4595578_1_4595578
The Daily Mail has picked up this story which takes place not 800 yards from my front door.
This is why I voted LEAVE last Thursday - not because of racism or xenophobia but because the EU has fundamentally failed large numbers of people.
I'll be more controversial - I blame the Single Market which sucks wealth from the poorest areas to the richest and since people will always go to the money, the people come too. An entire family come looking for work and finish up under the North Circular Road.
There are multiple failings - the family itself is not beyond reproach for their actions but the lesson remains - if people think there is a better life for them somewhere and they can get there, they will. It's human nature and I understand it.
I also see a third of Lithuanians have emigrated since the country joined the EU - what are the statistics for the other Baltic states and parts of Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia - I don't know.
What I do know is the EU has failed on a human level - instead of helping the economic regeneration of eastern Europe after 1989, it created the Single Market which has become a pool of cheap labour to power the British and German economies but without recognition of the social, political, cultural and above all human implications for the continent.
Jez will ascend to the heavens before stepping down in their eyes.
Wow, who saw that coming? Oh, wait...
Dave - Demob happy
Jezza - Mob happy
Boris - Happy not to be seen
Gove - Not seen and not heard
Farron - As Above-lite
Ruth - The Lioness of the North has lost her choppers
Kezia - Found her voice months too late
Falconer - Thought to be on holiday in the Bermuda Triangle.
I might even stop saying rude things about them for a while.
That said, if Rajoy were no longer Spanish PM the situation might change very quickly. The Scottish situation is not analogous to Catalonia declaring independence and then looking for fast track EU entry.
Interesting that we've heard more from Mrs Micheael Gove than we've heard from Mr Michael Gove himself?
But the Leave campaign has been warned from the beginning that the UK's position would be poor, and all we got back from them was some crap about how we were such a large economy etc. so everyone would offer us amazing terms.
If rUK stay in the single market then the single market between Scotland and rUK remains intact so independence and an application to join the EU is on the table. If the UK is not in the single market an independent Scotland would be committing suicide by applying. The SNP need to wait and see what the outcome is. Ironically, not being in the Single Market makes the chances of the UK breaking up much less but I still think we should go for it.
Come on, Oxford, Cambridge, others in the golden triangle and the Russell Group, you can manage it. It is British people who pay tax so that British universities don't have to. Ban them from spending money on recruitment drives abroad, in places such as China and Saudi.
Of course this will never happen, because the structure of the British education system has elitism written all the way through it as if it were a stick of Brighton rock.
I completely agree with your comments. When we talk about immigration, we're consistently looking down the wrong end of the telescope. We've performed a kind of intellectual beggar-thy-neighbour, and now complain about it.
(Or perhaps I should just adjust my tin foil hat)
@lindayueh: SMMT: UK car industry needs “unrestricted & reciprocal access” to Single Market or risk becoming 2nd tier;>800k jobs https://t.co/9TTon5oaCd