politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Team Corbyn shouldn’t assume that he’ll get “three quidder

If Corbyn does survive, he's going to be like Obi Wan Kenobi.

"If You strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."

SouthamObserver said:

Corbyn will walk it. Labour members are prepared to kill the Labour party to keep him in place.

Considering every Labour government has left the economy worse than it found it, we thank them for their service. Maybe like a phoenix a less dogmatic left wing party will arise from the Ashes.

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Corbyn does survive, he's going to be like Obi Wan Kenobi.

"If You strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."

Yes. Though it's not actually true of Obi-Wan is it? He's a fat load of use once he's dead.

Re India-EU, the Indian government used to have a very detailed set of pages on EU negotiations, but I can't seem to find it. (They had one on EFTA negotiations too.)

I don't know if they're removed it, or (more likely) if my Google Fu skills are just lacking today.

Pauly said:

I'm trying to bet on who'll go first Cam or Corbyn, but I've got no idea how long labour leadership contests take. Does anyone know how long the 3 shortest contests historically were?

The Labour contest ends at Labour Conference.
The Tory contest is to end before Tory Conference.
Labour Conference happens before Tory Conference.

So it theoretically could be possible that both contests end at the same time.

When will the Con MPs have their first round of voting on the new Con leader?

Looks like we're either going to be fully in or out of the Single Market

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

PlatoSaid said:

Conor Pope
The Chakrabarti Inquiry into anti-Semitism in the Labour Party will be published tomorrow.

Was wondering why they had sold out of whitewash at B&Q...

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

Re India-EU, the Indian government used to have a very detailed set of pages on EU negotiations, but I can't seem to find it. (They had one on EFTA negotiations too.)

I don't know if they're removed it, or (more likely) if my Google Fu skills are just lacking today.

The Deputy Finance Minister was telling the FT that he felt it would be much easier to deal with us as a single country just a few days ago.

The South Koreans, New Zealanders and Australians have all been talking about bi-lateral deals also.

Oh, there'll be no shortage of trade deals.

SouthamObserver said:

Corbyn will walk it. Labour members are prepared to kill the Labour party to keep him in place.

Not totally sure. There will be a recruitment drive for anti-Corbynites - I've already been asked - and the tone of the campaign will be very different from last year. Corbyn won't be new and refreshing and his opponent will position themselves more sensibly.

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

The negotiation period is 2 years.

At the risk of repeating myself, the four freedoms are the EU's 2nd amendment issue. I struggle to see how they could be persuaded to relinquish or amend the unqualified freedom of movement.

TheScreamingEagles said:

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

I expected nothing less. To give us that would be to end the EU. Anyone who thinks we can gain single market status without accepting free movement (even with a fig leaf) is kidding themselves.

I fully expect that in a vote of EEA vs WTO, the EEA side would win by 60/40. Whoever has the balls to call the vote will win a huge mandate to keep us in the single market. The EU will be happy with that and the government won't have to deal with all the screams about "betrayal".

They need a convincing alternative candidate though. They need ideas. About the economy, the EU, the disconnect between Hampstead and Humberside. Not easy.

Wanderer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Corbyn does survive, he's going to be like Obi Wan Kenobi.

"If You strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you could possibly imagine."

Yes. Though it's not actually true of Obi-Wan is it? He's a fat load of use once he's dead.

Watch the scene again. Obi Wans ' Suicide by Cop ' was the psychological shock Luke needed to pull Excalibur from the Stone. If Corbyn handles this killing correctly ( which he isn't ) he could evoke a similar outcome from his chosen successor.

rcs1000 said:

PlatoSaid said:

Conor Pope
The Chakrabarti Inquiry into anti-Semitism in the Labour Party will be published tomorrow.

I believe they'll conclude they're in favour of it.

Chortle ..

John_M said:

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

The negotiation period is 2 years.

At the risk of repeating myself, the four freedoms are the EU's 2nd amendment issue. I struggle to see how they could be persuaded to relinquish or amend the unqualified freedom of movement.

They're negotiating a no-free-movement deal with the swiss _now_. The reporting was that it was being held up until after our referendum vote.

looks like Corbyn is planning the destruction of the labour party

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like we're either going to be fully in or out of the Single Market

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

To be fair even if the EU is prepared to agree to an a la carte access they'd start negotiations by saying they're not. You don't start negotiations by giving away everything for free and then start making demands.

notme said:

SouthamObserver said:

Corbyn will walk it. Labour members are prepared to kill the Labour party to keep him in place.

As others have said there might be a Chilcot impact also, the Stop The War mob will love him if he calls for the arrest of Tony Blair from the dispatch box.

Would the Prime minister agree with me that an immediate arrest warrant be put out for the former Prime minister Anthony Blair thought to be currently holed up in a mansion in Kazakhstan.

PlatoSaid said:

Conor Pope
The Chakrabarti Inquiry into anti-Semitism in the Labour Party will be published tomorrow.

Nothing like pouring fuel on the fire!

anotherDave said:

John_M said:

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

The negotiation period is 2 years.

At the risk of repeating myself, the four freedoms are the EU's 2nd amendment issue. I struggle to see how they could be persuaded to relinquish or amend the unqualified freedom of movement.

They're negotiating a no-free-movement deal with the swiss _now_. The reporting was that it was being held up until after our referendum vote.

Switzerland doesn't have financial passporting, mind. It's why all the Swiss banks have much bigger London operations than Zurich ones.

http://support.labour.org.uk/# They aren't taking new £3 supporters at the moment.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like we're either going to be fully in or out of the Single Market

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

To be fair even if the EU is prepared to agree to an a la carte access they'd start negotiations by saying they're not. You don't start negotiations by giving away everything for free and then start making demands.

But that's exactly what we've just done. We've resigned but are now trying to negotiate the exit package having already quit.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like we're either going to be fully in or out of the Single Market

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

To be fair even if the EU is prepared to agree to an a la carte access they'd start negotiations by saying they're not. You don't start negotiations by giving away everything for free and then start making demands.

Tusk's statements are consistent with the EU's previous voiced position that you can't take what you want and leave what you don't. It does not however rule out taking half of what we want. as long as we take half of what we don't.

It also doesn't rule out the EU agreeing a special agreement in the same way we've had special agreements via opt outs in the past. That they've not agreed to it today does not mean there's no chance of them agreeing to it in the future.

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

Anorak said:

How about taking the view that the 48% who voted remain, plus a rather large chunk of Leavers (the Richard Tyndall and Smithson Jr types) are perfectly happy with free movement.

It's a straightforward case that this is more than half the vote and thus perfectly democratic to retain it. Leave Frothers will froth, natch, but there is literally no realistic, negotiated outcome that wouldn't result in that anyway.

It is obvious to me that over half the population would go for the EEA option, given full membership has been removed. Two issues: (1) It's up to the rEU to offer it to us and indications are that they probably won't, at least in its current form. (2) EEA is unlikely to work for Britain anyway. It's a balanced option designed to give nobody what they want.

Needless to say I disagree with both of those claims about EEA membership.

Just addressing the first it ignores the fact that we are an independent signatory to the EEA Agreement and that we have already had countries moving in the opposite direction from EFTA to the EU without having to rewrite the treaty. It needed a simple amendment under the Vienna Convention.

Given that it would give the EU basically everything they want including free movement of people I think you are overestimating the opposition anyway.

I know, we have been over this ground several times. Very briefly, it is very unlikely in practice that the UK would reenter/transfer to the EEA as an EFTA member without an explicit offer to do so by the EU negotiating team. As predicted by Open Europe's war gaming earlier this year, France but also Germany and Ireland would aim to peel off financial services from the single market deal with the UK. This is already starting to play out. As such, it isn't the EEA any more.

YellowSubmarine said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like we're either going to be fully in or out of the Single Market

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

To be fair even if the EU is prepared to agree to an a la carte access they'd start negotiations by saying they're not. You don't start negotiations by giving away everything for free and then start making demands.

But that's exactly what we've just done. We've resigned but are now trying to negotiate the exit package having already quit.

No it's not, we've announced we're going to resign and are now trying to negotiate a package that suits both our interests.

If we'd announced that the UK would have zero tariffs or restrictions on EU exports to the UK even if we don't reach an agreement then that would be equivalent to what the EU have said. We have what the EU wants, the EU has what we want, neither are prepared to give the milk away for free currently so negotiations will happen. The final deal will not be either parties starting deal.

ANZUKA sounds good and is resonate of the ANZAC's.

rcs1000 said:

anotherDave said:

John_M said:

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

The negotiation period is 2 years.

At the risk of repeating myself, the four freedoms are the EU's 2nd amendment issue. I struggle to see how they could be persuaded to relinquish or amend the unqualified freedom of movement.

They're negotiating a no-free-movement deal with the swiss _now_. The reporting was that it was being held up until after our referendum vote.

Switzerland doesn't have financial passporting, mind. It's why all the Swiss banks have much bigger London operations than Zurich ones.

Didn't the London based hedge funds decamp to Switzerland after an EU anti-hedge fund directive?

FF43 said:

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

Anorak said:

How about taking the view that the 48% who voted remain, plus a rather large chunk of Leavers (the Richard Tyndall and Smithson Jr types) are perfectly happy with free movement.

It's a straightforward case that this is more than half the vote and thus perfectly democratic to retain it. Leave Frothers will froth, natch, but there is literally no realistic, negotiated outcome that wouldn't result in that anyway.

It is obvious to me that over half the population would go for the EEA option, given full membership has been removed. Two issues: (1) It's up to the rEU to offer it to us and indications are that they probably won't, at least in its current form. (2) EEA is unlikely to work for Britain anyway. It's a balanced option designed to give nobody what they want.

Needless to say I disagree with both of those claims about EEA membership.

Just addressing the first it ignores the fact that we are an independent signatory to the EEA Agreement and that we have already had countries moving in the opposite direction from EFTA to the EU without having to rewrite the treaty. It needed a simple amendment under the Vienna Convention.

Given that it would give the EU basically everything they want including free movement of people I think you are overestimating the opposition anyway.

I know, we have been over this ground several times. Very briefly, it is very unlikely in practice that the UK would reenter/transfer to the EEA as an EFTA member without an explicit offer to do so by the EU negotiating team. As predicted by Open Europe's war gaming earlier this year, France but also Germany and Ireland would aim to peel off financial services from the single market deal with the UK. This is already starting to play out. As such, it isn't the EEA any more.

Legally they would find that very difficult and would be faced with a position whereby the whole EEA deal could collapse. I know they might try but they really are not in a a strong position as far as the treaty itself is concerned to do so.

chestnut said:

anotherDave said:

chestnut said:

rcs1000 said:

Re India-EU, the Indian government used to have a very detailed set of pages on EU negotiations, but I can't seem to find it. (They had one on EFTA negotiations too.)

I don't know if they're removed it, or (more likely) if my Google Fu skills are just lacking today.

The Deputy Finance Minister was telling the FT that he felt it would be much easier to deal with us as a single country just a few days ago.

The South Koreans, New Zealanders and Australians have all been talking about bi-lateral deals also.

Mr Lilico was suggesting we look to political union/grouping with Canada, NZ, and Australia.

"A CANZUK union would be a very significant geopolitical player, with a combined GDP of about three quarters of that of China, the fourth largest economic area in the world. It would have the largest land area of any union. It would have the third largest defence expenditure. It would be a very significant geopolitical player. "

http://reaction.life/so-what-next/

I like the sound of that.

Similarly wealthy nations, single language, a heavily shared history.

The US would never permit Canada to join such a union. Canada is nominally free, just as we were nominally allowed to leave the EU at any time. We of course by enormous fluke/divine intervention are on course to do the latter. It will be a cold day in hell before the US allows Canada to do the former.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Faddy, welcome to pb.com.

On the Conservative leadership: today is the only day for nominations, right?

Open today, close tomorrow.

FF43 said:

FPT

Richard_Tyndall said:

FF43 said:

Anorak said:

How about taking the view that the 48% who voted remain, plus a rather large chunk of Leavers (the Richard Tyndall and Smithson Jr types) are perfectly happy with free movement.

It's a straightforward case that this is more than half the vote and thus perfectly democratic to retain it. Leave Frothers will froth, natch, but there is literally no realistic, negotiated outcome that wouldn't result in that anyway.

It is obvious to me that over half the population would go for the EEA option, given full membership has been removed. Two issues: (1) It's up to the rEU to offer it to us and indications are that they probably won't, at least in its current form. (2) EEA is unlikely to work for Britain anyway. It's a balanced option designed to give nobody what they want.

Needless to say I disagree with both of those claims about EEA membership.

Just addressing the first it ignores the fact that we are an independent signatory to the EEA Agreement and that we have already had countries moving in the opposite direction from EFTA to the EU without having to rewrite the treaty. It needed a simple amendment under the Vienna Convention.

Given that it would give the EU basically everything they want including free movement of people I think you are overestimating the opposition anyway.

I know, we have been over this ground several times. Very briefly, it is very unlikely in practice that the UK would reenter/transfer to the EEA as an EFTA member without an explicit offer to do so by the EU negotiating team. As predicted by Open Europe's war gaming earlier this year, France but also Germany and Ireland would aim to peel off financial services from the single market deal with the UK. This is already starting to play out. As such, it isn't the EEA any more.

Worth a read. Looks like some of the City’s activities will quite soon be elsewhere. The question is not whether, but how much.

Tissue_Price said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Faddy, welcome to pb.com.

On the Conservative leadership: today is the only day for nominations, right?

Open today, close tomorrow.

Didn't they say midday tomorrow?

So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!

Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?

The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.

Good luck Boris :-D

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Legally they would find that very difficult and would be faced with a position whereby the whole EEA deal could collapse. I know they might try but they really are not in a a strong position as far as the treaty itself is concerned to do so.

Why? The treaty would need rewriting anyway whatever happens. The politicians will decide this and then the bureaucrats and lawyers will draw up the legal stuff.

Why will it? It wasn't changed when Sweden and other nations switched from the EFTA leg to the EU leg of the EEA.

SouthamObserver said:

So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the ba[n]kers will be hurt!!

Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?

The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.

Good luck Boris :-D

Yes, I fear you are right.

MTimT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like we're either going to be fully in or out of the Single Market

AFP: EU 27 agree 'no single market a la carte' for UK: Tusk

To be fair even if the EU is prepared to agree to an a la carte access they'd start negotiations by saying they're not. You don't start negotiations by giving away everything for free and then start making demands.

Tusk's statements are consistent with the EU's previous voiced position that you can't take what you want and leave what you don't. It does not however rule out taking half of what we want. as long as we take half of what we don't.

It also doesn't rule out the EU agreeing a special agreement in the same way we've had special agreements via opt outs in the past. That they've not agreed to it today does not mean there's no chance of them agreeing to it in the future.

And there is absolutely no reason this should not be a multi-step negotiation. We Brits tend to like to do a deal, come to an agreement and stick to it.

In the Middle East, any deal agreed is simply the starting point of the next negotiation. We should learn from the Israelis and the Arabs. Get what we can from Europe now and renegotiate later. Or, leave completely now without a deal, and wait until they are ready to do the best mutual deal, rather than requiring an element of punishing us.

Ha, so true about the Middle East. We will have a deal, insh'allah.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Legally they would find that very difficult and would be faced with a position whereby the whole EEA deal could collapse. I know they might try but they really are not in a a strong position as far as the treaty itself is concerned to do so.

Why? The treaty would need rewriting anyway whatever happens. The politicians will decide this and then the bureaucrats and lawyers will draw up the legal stuff.

Why will it? It wasn't changed when Sweden and other nations switched from the EFTA leg to the EU leg of the EEA.

Yes it was.

Can you show a link to how it was changed then please?

SouthamObserver said:

The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.

Good luck Boris :-D

That's not exactly true. They misrepresented the strength of the UK hand.

I think Boris knows exactly how weak it is. That's why he wanted to lose. His poker face was on display on Friday. Ashen.

RodCrosby said:

Looks like the coup has failed.
Corbyn going nowhere, Eagle would be deselected by her own constituency if she stood, and be demolished by Corbyn in a ballot anyhow - "the lesser of two Eagles", as the Corbynites briefed this morning...

Hahahahahahahahahahaha Hah

SouthamObserver said:

So, here's what will happen. We will be offered an EEA-style deal that allows us a level of control over migration and full access tot he Single Market, with one exception - passporting for the City will be excluded. What a great deal - only the bakers will be hurt!!

Is there a Tory PM who would sign up to that?

The Leavers have so miscalculated the strength of the UK's hand it is unbelievable.

Good luck Boris :-D

I don't think any Tory PM would sign up to that, the donors wouldn't be happy.

We will accept free movement and keep our current single market status or we will fully leave and put up full immigration restrictions on EU migrants. Those are the two available options, anything else would be sub-optimal in one way or another.

@euanmccolm: make no mistake, alex salmond came within a few hundred thousand votes of being boris in 2014.

RodCrosby said:

Corbyn going nowhere

How perceptive of you Rod to conceive the title of the next Labour Party general election manifesto.