politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn loses the confidence vote by a huge margin
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Mr. Lowlander, yes, the Liberals are still around, albeit not in huge numbers.0
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Not much magnanimity on show from Farage today.0
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In private Dan Hannan must be as embarrassed by the Leave campaign's focus on immigration as you were. He has the misfortune of being publicly associated with it, but to go on TV and point blank refuse to admit that it was a major factor in the result just damages any credibility the rest of his arguments might have.Richard_Tyndall said:
You don't quote it in full. He immediately explained what he wants and makes it clear that means being outside the EU. Or couldn't you actually be bothered to listen to the rest after you had your partial quote?williamglenn said:
You're projecting.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. I don't like fuckwits who misrepresent people. I spend all my time on here trying to be straight and factual and attacking both sides when they misrepresent. You clearly have no interest in the truth. You are pretty much the embodiment of what is wrong with political debate in this country.williamglenn said:
You ok hun?Richard_Tyndall said:
Partial quoting again. You really are a despicable piece of shit.williamglenn said:
He's saying we need to repatriate powers but can't ignore the 48%.kle4 said:
That cannot be the literal quote!?Scott_P said:WTAF?
@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d
Amanpour: I thought this referendum was about disassociating from the EU.
Hannan: I get that you thought that. You were evidently not listening.
Amanpour: So it wasn't?
Hannan: Correct.
The interesting part of the video is the first minute where Hannan clearly leaves all options open. I quoted the bit near the end in full because that was the except used in the tweet.0 -
Ones that voted for AV? And banning Trump?Danny565 said:I honestly think a new "Progress Labour" breakaway party would top out at about 5% in the polls. Apart from a few media comentators, who exactly would be supporting them?? Which constituencies would they be competitive in in a general election?
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Ah yes, that's the thread I compared the Lib Dems to an STD.
Once they infect, they are difficult to get rid off and it involves a lot of pain.0 -
No, TSE would be the ideal leader, given that he's a Sheffield Hallam LibDem at heartTheScreamingEagles said:I think I might write a thread header headlined
'Is David Cameron the ideal leader for a breakaway SDP Mark 2 party comprising the right wing of the Labour Party, One Nation Tories, and Orange bookers'
*innocent face*0 -
Yep, what the country is clamouring for are open borders and solidarity with the Palestinians.Danny565 said:
Again, the irony is that an SDP v2 would be based exactly on the principles behind the "Remain" campaign -- the campaign that just got hammered by the voters.bigjohnowls said:
Labour splitters have faired worse in the past.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I think we can all see the working class flocking to support Corbyn Labour's pro open door immigration, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas platform. When you are living in a dump and not earning enough to warm your house in winter solidarity with the Palestinians is what keeps you going.bigjohnowls said:
Progress Labour buggers off and at least 15 years of Tory Governments ensues as left vote is split between Labour and progress Labour until progress Labour gives it up as a bad jobtaffys said:Mr. JS, Corbyn can survive. Not sure about Labour, though.
Mr Morris If Corbyn goes back to the membership, and they confirm him, what on earth happens then?
Looking on the bright side at least we get to find out who was most out of touch with WWC,
I think Progress Lab are in for a shock but we will see.
Maybe the Members will back down
When Lab splits which I now see as very likely.
We will find our if Lab or SDP 2 proves most popular.
You up for a bet when that point is reached?
For all the Labour moderates' asserting (without evidence) that they know how to win elections, their mixture of economic conservatism/cultural liberalism has never been less popular with the country.
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She was excellent during the campaign, but I heard her on WatO on Friday and she was literally lost for words a couple of times when they played extracts of what she had said back to her. I'm afraid she sank in my estimation as a result.anotherDave said:
I really liked Ms Leadsom during the referendum campaign. Fingers crossed for her.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, REMAIN doing better than expected however it maybe that Theresa is attracting some of the LEAVErs. On a separate note, Leadsom at 13% is remarkable and should encourage her to stand to at least force herself into the cabinet, maybe as Chancellor. She is a clean skin compared to Fox and should pick up MP votes at each stage. Osborne is an abysmal 2% although part of that is deflated by his announcement not to stand today. PS Osborne and 2% support has a certain similarity to his national rating amongst all voters.anotherDave said:
I'm surprised the Remain support is so high. Going to be interesting to see the verdict on this one.TCPoliticalBetting said:
ConHome numbers - I can only see a chance for the first 5. The REMAINer vote is 44%. LEAVEr vote is 56%. If a LEAVEr gets on ballot then they win IMHO.rottenborough said:Just in case PBers haven't noticed this, Guido has a spreadsheet on nominations for Boris and Co.
Boris: 25 Crabb: 16 May: 8
Looks like Crabb wanted to be up and running quickly.
Theresa May: 29 per cent.
Boris Johnson: 28 per cent.
Andrea Leadsom: 13 per cent.
Liam Fox: 13 per cent.
Stephen Crabb: 9 per cent.
Sajid Javid: 2 per cent. Dominic Raab: 2 per cent. George Osborne: 2 per cent. Nicky Morgan: 1 per cent. Jeremy Hunt: 1 per cent. Amber Rudd: 0 per cent.
(I've also got £10 @ 16/1!)0 -
They're relatively popular in Liverpool.Lowlander said:
Doesn't the old Liberal party still technically exist?TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might write a thread header headlined
'Is David Cameron the ideal leader for a breakaway SDP Mark 2 party comprising the right wing of the Labour Party, One Nation Tories, and Orange bookers'0 -
Yes Kellner said in 2016 that phone polls were best and that REMAIN would win by that margin. In his absence Yougov changed their methodology and have an acceptable degree of absence. Yougov's current head also had a public spat with Kellner and must be enjoying being proved right.Tissue_Price said:
Mr Kellner is no longer with YouGov.anotherDave said:
I believe Mr Kellner was predicting an 8 point margin for Remain. Not super.Tissue_Price said:YouGov's analysis of the referendum polling is notably catty.
"They hired a former city trader to conduct an analysis of whether the telephone polls or the online polls were more reliable. The report, which now turns out to have been completely wrong, became extremely influential despite YouGov’s strong arguments at the time that it was based on flimsy evidence and circular logic."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/28/online-polls-were-right/0 -
+1... Regardless of the Referendum they provided a useful anchor on the sillier ideas being implemented. The suggestion that all schools had to be academies would have lasted seconds if ever revealed...TheScreamingEagles said:
Shocking after timing, but last year, I wrote but didn't publish a thread about how Dave biggest political mistake might have been to destroy the Lib Dems.Lennon said:
With Nick Clegg as his able Deputy presumably...TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might write a thread header headlined
'Is David Cameron the ideal leader for a breakaway SDP Mark 2 party comprising the right wing of the Labour Party, One Nation Tories, and Orange bookers'
Of course the big question is was it Dave's mistake or George's0 -
He's eaten a lot of poo over the years. Let him strut.AndyJS said:Not much magnanimity on show from Farage today.
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Won't need many stories like this for "steady as she goes" to look more attractiveSeanT said:Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
@krishgm: neighbour's house sale just fell through with buyers citing Brexit economic fears. Anyone else hearing such things?0 -
Plenty of room round Tim's campfireTheScreamingEagles said:Ah yes, that's the thread I compared the Lib Dems to an STD.
Once they infect, they are difficult to get rid off and it involves a lot of pain. 0 -
Mr. JS, Farage is an oaf.0
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Expecting my Gran's to fall through... It hasn't yet but I think that's just because there is nothing around...Scott_P said:
Won't need many stories like this for "steady as she goes" to look more attractiveSeanT said:Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
@krishgm: neighbour's house sale just fell through with buyers citing Brexit economic fears. Anyone else hearing such things?0 -
So you too think Labour Progress will outlive Labour.JohnO said:
Yep, you said it: the Tories will have another 15 years in power and when Labour does reunite (if it survives) it will be on the terms of those who quit now.bigjohnowls said:
Labour splitters have faired worse in the past.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - I think we can all see the working class flocking to support Corbyn Labour's pro open door immigration, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas platform. When you are living in a dump and not earning enough to warm your house in winter solidarity with the Palestinians is what keeps you going.bigjohnowls said:
Progress Labour buggers off and at least 15 years of Tory Governments ensues as left vote is split between Labour and progress Labour until progress Labour gives it up as a bad jobtaffys said:Mr. JS, Corbyn can survive. Not sure about Labour, though.
Mr Morris If Corbyn goes back to the membership, and they confirm him, what on earth happens then?
Looking on the bright side at least we get to find out who was most out of touch with WWC,
I think Progress Lab are in for a shock but we will see.
Maybe the Members will back down
When Lab splits which I now see as very likely.
We will find our if Lab or SDP 2 proves most popular.
You up for a bet when that point is reached?
If the split happens are you up for a bet which of the 2 does best.
As SO and I both say both will lose out but I think Corbyn Lab beats Progress Lab.0 -
@RupertMyers: No connection between Brexit & racism, except according to the architect of Brexit https://t.co/Ns5jwvBAzTanotherDave said:He's eaten a lot of poo over the years. Let him strut.
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I do feel that the pace of our politicians is somewhat out of kilter with the economic urgencies of the moment. A selection of candidates for the Tories so people can put down future markers for themselves seems more than self indulgent at this point. We need leadership which can make clear decisions and we need it soon.SeanT said:
This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.SouthamObserver said:More self-inflicted harm. We were specifically warned about this one on here ...
http://qz.com/717626/after-brexit-the-race-is-on-to-replace-london-as-europes-startup-capital/
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.0 -
Didn't think I'd ever say this but I am pondering the same but from the ex-Labour direction. I will rejoin for £3 to vote for the next leader but if Corbyn prevails then I'm off.JosiasJessop said:Oh, and perhaps as a sign of my mental infirmity at the moment, I'm seriously considering joining the LibDems. I considered joining either the Lib Dems or Conservatives after the last GE, but am now leaning heavily towards the LDs.
We need an effective opposition in England and Wales, and Labour's too busy opposing itself atm.
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@Conorpope: Emergency Labour NEC meeting called for Thursday
@PolhomeEditor: The Labour plotters' big bazooka is the resignation of the whips' office, paralysing the opposition. Could happen tonight or tomorrow.0 -
who cares that some stupid fanny who was obviously just a tyre kicker pulled out using any old excuse. Property sales have always fallen through and always will. FannyScott_P said:
Won't need many stories like this for "steady as she goes" to look more attractiveSeanT said:Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
@krishgm: neighbour's house sale just fell through with buyers citing Brexit economic fears. Anyone else hearing such things?0 -
I've been giving this site a wide berth since Friday (for reasons that should be obvious to anyone reading the threads) but i won't be voting for Boris.Andypet said:Is it possible that May could out Brexit Boris? Could she say that her sole reason for remaining was based on security and was predicated on being a full member? If we are not to be a member, then our security is best served by not having free movement.
Put simply, I don't trust him and I don't think he's up to the job.
I think he'll promise anything to anyone to get to the top job, and then do whatever he finds most politically expedient when he gets there.
When I see him clarifying he wants serious reforms to free movement claiming he was "tired" before, and then see Soames come out for him enthusiastically hours later, I smell a giant rat.0 -
He's spread a lot of poo over the years as well. Time to let him sink.anotherDave said:
He's eaten a lot of poo over the years. Let him strut.AndyJS said:Not much magnanimity on show from Farage today.
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It depends who was standing for them and what the circumstances are at the time. Corbyn Labour will go even further left, Brexit may become politically unpopular if the economic waters get choppy. Under such circumstances it may be possible for a lot of MPs who are well known in their constituencies to hold on - especially if members in the constituency jump ship with them.Danny565 said:I honestly think a new "Progress Labour" breakaway party would top out at about 5% in the polls. Apart from a few media comentators, who exactly would be supporting them?? Which constituencies would they be competitive in in a general election?
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Which is why a new members vote is required now Corbyn says BRING IT ON.Scott_P said:@PolhomeEditor: Shadow minister: "No-one disputes that Jeremy was elected by the members. But not for life. It isn't North Korea."
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@JosiasJessop Plenty of room for you too 0
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You'd be mad to buy now. Prices could be falling pretty soon.Scott_P said:
Won't need many stories like this for "steady as she goes" to look more attractiveSeanT said:Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
@krishgm: neighbour's house sale just fell through with buyers citing Brexit economic fears. Anyone else hearing such things?
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Much like the referendum, it's possible they didn't think it would be quite so potent a force to unleash, the assault on the LDs, and it proved more effective than they intended.eek said:
+1... Regardless of the Referendum they provided a useful anchor on the sillier ideas being implemented. The suggestion that all schools had to be academies would have lasted seconds if ever revealed...TheScreamingEagles said:
Shocking after timing, but last year, I wrote but didn't publish a thread about how Dave biggest political mistake might have been to destroy the Lib Dems.Lennon said:
With Nick Clegg as his able Deputy presumably...TheScreamingEagles said:I think I might write a thread header headlined
'Is David Cameron the ideal leader for a breakaway SDP Mark 2 party comprising the right wing of the Labour Party, One Nation Tories, and Orange bookers'
Of course the big question is was it Dave's mistake or George's0 -
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.0 -
Angela Eagle to challenge Corbyn - ITN0
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More from that Yougov article. Populus get both barrels.
"One result of that report was an extraordinary method of ‘weighting by social attitude’ which essentially pushes a poll result to a previously known poll of social attitudes. As attitudes to the EU are social attitudes, it was a bizarre idea with no precedent in polling science (you might as well force-weight a sample to previously known EU Referendum attitudes). This method was used for the Remain campaign’s internal polling, and led to Populus’s day-of-voting poll showing a 55-45 victory for Remain (we don’t include it in our averages as we don’t consider it a proper poll). "
Of course no one on PB swallowed the line of ABs are going to win this for REMAIN brieifng from populus/Cooper?
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Chris Ship: Eagle gets the gig...
Utterly pointless. I don't believe it. Others will come forward.0 -
Another 1000 members joined today...now 8,000 since FridayOllyT said:
Didn't think I'd ever say this but I am pondering the same but from the ex-Labour direction. I will rejoin for £3 to vote for the next leader but if Corbyn prevails then I'm off.JosiasJessop said:Oh, and perhaps as a sign of my mental infirmity at the moment, I'm seriously considering joining the LibDems. I considered joining either the Lib Dems or Conservatives after the last GE, but am now leaning heavily towards the LDs.
We need an effective opposition in England and Wales, and Labour's too busy opposing itself atm.
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You have to hand it to him, he kept at a hopeless cause and got it through and in the interim has lived well on the Brussels trough. The boy done good.JosiasJessop said:
He's spread a lot of poo over the years as well. Time to let him sink.anotherDave said:
He's eaten a lot of poo over the years. Let him strut.AndyJS said:Not much magnanimity on show from Farage today.
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The NEC is key. They decide who gets on the leadership ballot paper. I am not sure this is something the courts would go near, given the way that Labour is set up.Scott_P said:@Conorpope: Emergency Labour NEC meeting called for Thursday
@PolhomeEditor: The Labour plotters' big bazooka is the resignation of the whips' office, paralysing the opposition. Could happen tonight or tomorrow.
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John Baron is going to be the new Tory leader.
Confirmed: Conservative party board have pushed back leadership deadline to September 9th, after 1922 recommended 2nd - new PM by then
So Mike's on holiday when the result is out.0 -
It's happening in my (ex-) industry. People are really worried for their jobs, including Mrs J. One small startup has had some funding withdrawn yesterday (although there's always the possibility that might have happened anyway).SeanT said:
Dead Cat Bounce?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Considering most of our politicians are behaving like idiots that does rather nail the were all doomed meme.MarkHopkins said:Good News.
Pressure has eased on UK financial markets after two days of turmoil in the wake of the Brexit vote, with the FTSE 100 share index closing higher.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36648630
Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
Confidence is low; no wonder when there have been staff and friends crying because they feel unwelcome.
And n pathetic safe-area cries of 'Wacist!' can change that.0 -
Do we think Angela Eagle is electable?0
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Sounds great.Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: It's war, now. If Corbyn wins 2nd mandate, mandatory reselection of MPs, recall + more power for members all planned
https://t.co/NhvzFccCw3
How could any supporter of democracy not like that.
Lab splitters not so much!
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In the poo?Pulpstar said:@JosiasJessop Plenty of room for you too
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I listened to that, and I don't think she performed badly. Quite liked her having a go at the presenter for presenting a Remain supporter as a non-political voice.TudorRose said:
She was excellent during the campaign, but I heard her on WatO on Friday and she was literally lost for words a couple of times when they played extracts of what she had said back to her. I'm afraid she sank in my estimation as a result.anotherDave said:
I really liked Ms Leadsom during the referendum campaign. Fingers crossed for her.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, REMAIN doing better than expected however it maybe that Theresa is attracting some of the LEAVErs. On a separate note, Leadsom at 13% is remarkable and should encourage her to stand to at least force herself into the cabinet, maybe as Chancellor. She is a clean skin compared to Fox and should pick up MP votes at each stage. Osborne is an abysmal 2% although part of that is deflated by his announcement not to stand today. PS Osborne and 2% support has a certain similarity to his national rating amongst all voters.anotherDave said:
I'm surprised the Remain support is so high. Going to be interesting to see the verdict on this one.TCPoliticalBetting said:
ConHome numbers - I can only see a chance for the first 5. The REMAINer vote is 44%. LEAVEr vote is 56%. If a LEAVEr gets on ballot then they win IMHO.rottenborough said:Just in case PBers haven't noticed this, Guido has a spreadsheet on nominations for Boris and Co.
Boris: 25 Crabb: 16 May: 8
Looks like Crabb wanted to be up and running quickly.
Theresa May: 29 per cent.
Boris Johnson: 28 per cent.
Andrea Leadsom: 13 per cent.
Liam Fox: 13 per cent.
Stephen Crabb: 9 per cent.
Sajid Javid: 2 per cent. Dominic Raab: 2 per cent. George Osborne: 2 per cent. Nicky Morgan: 1 per cent. Jeremy Hunt: 1 per cent. Amber Rudd: 0 per cent.
(I've also got £10 @ 16/1!)
38m40s into the programme below.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h2vc6
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Meh. I think that was because there were a bunch of people who objected to a ham-fisted assault on the Office of the Speaker by the government, not because people like Bercow specifically.JackW said:
And yet enjoys substantial cross party support as witnessed by the failed pre-election government coup.Charles said:Which is why he is a crap Speaker
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How quickly can you call an election nowadays...TheScreamingEagles said:John Baron is going to be the new Tory leader.
Confirmed: Conservative party board have pushed back leadership deadline to September 9th, after 1922 recommended 2nd - new PM by then
So Mike's on holiday when the result is out.0 -
Lord Peter the Punter, shirley.Richard_Nabavi said:
They should ask Peter the Punter to adjudicate.Tissue_Price said:
The Labour Party have one set of legal advice. The leadership have another.SimonStClare said:
That is my understanding also - automatically on the list.eek said:
Supposedly he's on the ballot automatically as the reigning leader...stjohn said:This article says Corbyn needs 50 to get on the leadership ballot but that can include MEPs.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-labour-leadership-brexit-can-he-stand-for-re-election-vote-of-no-confidence-legal-a7107291.html0 -
@patrickwintour: "In light of recent developments", Danny Blanchflower tells John McDonnell " it's over." More credibility shot. https://t.co/Uc1kg0lAPt0
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Vote Leave = Vote to split the UnionSeanT said:
Given that you want to break my country up, I won't take your advice on what's best for my country.Lowlander said:
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.0 -
Is that in the wake of there not being 5m unemployed?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Britain is on a Bosman.
It does not want want to renew it's contract. It is the 5th best player in the world.
The EU's offer? 430m people and 12% of global GDP.
The rest of the world? 7bn people and 85% of global GDP.0 -
Can I gar a bet on how many times she bursts in to tears during the campaignGallowgate said:Do we think Angela Eagle is electable?
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https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/747846318282911745RodCrosby said:Chris Ship: Eagle gets the gig...
Utterly pointless. I don't believe it. Others will come forward.0 -
Does Mike deliberately go on holiday when the big political events occur?TheScreamingEagles said:John Baron is going to be the new Tory leader.
Confirmed: Conservative party board have pushed back leadership deadline to September 9th, after 1922 recommended 2nd - new PM by then
So Mike's on holiday when the result is out. 0 -
We're not throwing coins into a wishing well.SeanT said:
Given that you want to break my country up, I won't take your advice on what's best for my country.Lowlander said:
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.
The decision has been made, the electorate has spoken. This cannot be undone or wished away. Your suggestion - that the UK joins the EEA and quickly - would mean the absolute hammering of the Tories and Labour at the next elections. It could result in civil disobedience in the interim as well. It would be that big a decision.
If you want to keep the UK together you need a better idea. The one you have come up with is an utter fantasy which is completely unworkable.
If you can't come up with a viable idea, then it is time to accept the outcome and face up to making the dissolution of the UK as smooth and quick as possible for everyone's economic sake.0 -
NEC has a Corbyn majority last time I looked but who knows now.SouthamObserver said:
The NEC is key. They decide who gets on the leadership ballot paper. I am not sure this is something the courts would go near, given the way that Labour is set up.Scott_P said:@Conorpope: Emergency Labour NEC meeting called for Thursday
@PolhomeEditor: The Labour plotters' big bazooka is the resignation of the whips' office, paralysing the opposition. Could happen tonight or tomorrow.0 -
TheKrakenAwakes said:
Another 1000 members joined today...now 8,000 since FridayOllyT said:
Didn't think I'd ever say this but I am pondering the same but from the ex-Labour direction. I will rejoin for £3 to vote for the next leader but if Corbyn prevails then I'm off.JosiasJessop said:Oh, and perhaps as a sign of my mental infirmity at the moment, I'm seriously considering joining the LibDems. I considered joining either the Lib Dems or Conservatives after the last GE, but am now leaning heavily towards the LDs.
We need an effective opposition in England and Wales, and Labour's too busy opposing itself atm.
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George Freeman MP [who?] denies he's going to stand as Leader of Conservative Party on BBC Look East this evening. His name had been mooted by Guido Fawkes and others.0
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bigjohnowls said:
Can I get a bet on how many times she bursts in to tears during the campaignGallowgate said:Do we think Angela Eagle is electable?
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It's Waycist.JosiasJessop said:
It's happening in my (ex-) industry. People are really worried for their jobs, including Mrs J. One small startup has had some funding withdrawn yesterday (although there's always the possibility that might have happened anyway).SeanT said:
Dead Cat Bounce?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Considering most of our politicians are behaving like idiots that does rather nail the were all doomed meme.MarkHopkins said:Good News.
Pressure has eased on UK financial markets after two days of turmoil in the wake of the Brexit vote, with the FTSE 100 share index closing higher.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36648630
Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
Confidence is low; no wonder when there have been staff and friends crying because they feel unwelcome.
And n pathetic safe-area cries of 'Wacist!' can change that.
Apparently, none of this is happening. I am supposed to have made up one of our marketing team being called a Polack and told to fuck off home.
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She couldn't even hold on to third place in the Deputy Leadership election less than a year ago...Gallowgate said:Do we think Angela Eagle is electable?
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She should be careful saying that, she'd be one rude comment at a table in the Holyrood cafeteria to lose 80% of her MSPs.Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: Breaking - Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, says 'if I had lost support of 80pc of my MSPs I could not do my job'
@bbclaurak: By implication Dugdale calling on Corbyn to go0 -
No. She's likeable but not electable IMO.Gallowgate said:Do we think Angela Eagle is electable?
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To be fair to her I imagine she was as tired as the rest of us. Even so I didn't think she showed 'star quality'.anotherDave said:
I listened to that, and I don't think she performed badly. Quite liked her having a go at the presenter for presenting a Remain supporter as a non-political voice.TudorRose said:
She was excellent during the campaign, but I heard her on WatO on Friday and she was literally lost for words a couple of times when they played extracts of what she had said back to her. I'm afraid she sank in my estimation as a result.anotherDave said:
I really liked Ms Leadsom during the referendum campaign. Fingers crossed for her.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Yes, REMAIN doing better than expected however it maybe that Theresa is attracting some of the LEAVErs. On a separate note, Leadsom at 13% is remarkable and should encourage her to stand to at least force herself into the cabinet, maybe as Chancellor. She is a clean skin compared to Fox and should pick up MP votes at each stage. Osborne is an abysmal 2% although part of that is deflated by his announcement not to stand today. PS Osborne and 2% support has a certain similarity to his national rating amongst all voters.anotherDave said:
I'm surprised the Remain support is so high. Going to be interesting to see the verdict on this one.TCPoliticalBetting said:
ConHome numbers - I can only see a chance for the first 5. The REMAINer vote is 44%. LEAVEr vote is 56%. If a LEAVEr gets on ballot then they win IMHO.rottenborough said:Just in case PBers haven't noticed this, Guido has a spreadsheet on nominations for Boris and Co.
Boris: 25 Crabb: 16 May: 8
Looks like Crabb wanted to be up and running quickly.
Theresa May: 29 per cent.
Boris Johnson: 28 per cent.
Andrea Leadsom: 13 per cent.
Liam Fox: 13 per cent.
Stephen Crabb: 9 per cent.
Sajid Javid: 2 per cent. Dominic Raab: 2 per cent. George Osborne: 2 per cent. Nicky Morgan: 1 per cent. Jeremy Hunt: 1 per cent. Amber Rudd: 0 per cent.
(I've also got £10 @ 16/1!)
38m40s into the programme below.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07h2vc60 -
Eagle or Corbyn for you ?bigjohnowls said:
Can I gar a bet on how many times she bursts in to tears during the campaignGallowgate said:Do we think Angela Eagle is electable?
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It's going to be interesting to see how many Labour MPs turn up for PMQs0
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Whose, Corbyn or Blanchflower’s?Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: "In light of recent developments", Danny Blanchflower tells John McDonnell " it's over." More credibility shot. https://t.co/Uc1kg0lAPt
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Hannan made a point of not associating himself with the immigration campaign and wrote extensively about how he was in favour of the EFTA solution which included freedom of movement. It is clearly why the campaigns kept him out of the way. Indeed lots of people were on here in the last few days of the campaign asking why he had not been used.williamglenn said:
In private Dan Hannan must be as embarrassed by the Leave campaign's focus on immigration as you were. He has the misfortune of being publicly associated with it, but to go on TV and point blank refuse to admit that it was a major factor in the result just damages any credibility the rest of his arguments might have.Richard_Tyndall said:
You don't quote it in full. He immediately explained what he wants and makes it clear that means being outside the EU. Or couldn't you actually be bothered to listen to the rest after you had your partial quote?williamglenn said:
You're projecting.Richard_Tyndall said:
No. I don't like fuckwits who misrepresent people. I spend all my time on here trying to be straight and factual and attacking both sides when they misrepresent. You clearly have no interest in the truth. You are pretty much the embodiment of what is wrong with political debate in this country.williamglenn said:
You ok hun?Richard_Tyndall said:
Partial quoting again. You really are a despicable piece of shit.williamglenn said:
He's saying we need to repatriate powers but can't ignore the 48%.kle4 said:
That cannot be the literal quote!?Scott_P said:WTAF?
@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d
Amanpour: I thought this referendum was about disassociating from the EU.
Hannan: I get that you thought that. You were evidently not listening.
Amanpour: So it wasn't?
Hannan: Correct.
The interesting part of the video is the first minute where Hannan clearly leaves all options open. I quoted the bit near the end in full because that was the except used in the tweet.
Your implication is that everyone who voted or campaigned for Leave, no matter what they said about immigration or how clear they were that it was not the issue for them is guilty by association. That includes me and everyone else on here who supported Leave.
It is a pretty stupid position to take.
Mind you at least you have not tried to defend your partial quoting of Hannan about EU membership. I assume like Scott you realise you fucked up there and are trying to deflect the debate elsewhere.0 -
I know better than to trust Dan Hannan too. As I said quite clearly before the referendum, several times.Richard_Tyndall said:
Surely you know better than to trust anything at all Scott writes.williamglenn said:
He wants to keep his job in the European Parliament after all...Scott_P said:WTAF?
@mrianleslie: In this interview Daniel Hannan says the Leave campaign was NOT about disassociating the UK from the EU https://t.co/6FW9agTL2d0 -
Cobblers. It's exactly the kind of thing the Courts would go near, as they have already done many times in the past...SouthamObserver said:
The NEC is key. They decide who gets on the leadership ballot paper. I am not sure this is something the courts would go near, given the way that Labour is set up.Scott_P said:@Conorpope: Emergency Labour NEC meeting called for Thursday
@PolhomeEditor: The Labour plotters' big bazooka is the resignation of the whips' office, paralysing the opposition. Could happen tonight or tomorrow.0 -
About bloody time. A more useless, idiotic and partial member I find it hard to imagine.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
McDonnell cares as much about Labour as Corbyn does. They are getting close to what they have always dreamed of - its destruction as a bourgeois apologist for capitalism and the enslavement of the proletariat. They are not giving up now.Scott_P said:@patrickwintour: "In light of recent developments", Danny Blanchflower tells John McDonnell " it's over." More credibility shot. https://t.co/Uc1kg0lAPt
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JC vs AE is a no contest KO for JC IMO.
Looks like the splitters haven't thought this through at all to me0 -
Yes. Leaving aside my own personal circumstances (which I really don't want to discuss at the mo) a woman in my office who was due to complete on Friday has been informed by her buyers that they are pausing to think about the implications. Whether "pausing" means "not going to proceed" or "hold on a minute, let me think" is not known to me nor her, so this may yet be a hiccup instead of a fallen-thru sale, but it is a source of some concern to the woman in question.Scott_P said:@krishgm: neighbour's house sale just fell through with buyers citing Brexit economic fears. Anyone else hearing such things?
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Eagle still at 3 on BF0
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You Brexit, you bought it.SeanT said:
Who gives a F what you think. Even if Scotland quits we need England and London in the EEA/single market. I suspect economic forces are soon going to make that very clear and apparent to the voters.
England cannot enter the EEA without free movement and the people of England have said NO! I'm not sure what you're missing here. 54% of England voted no and all the evidence points to that being dominated by the desire to end free movement.
The deal is done, you can't wish away the consequences.0 -
We'll see.RodCrosby said:
Cobblers. It's exactly the kind of thing the Courts would go near, as they have already done many times in the past...SouthamObserver said:
The NEC is key. They decide who gets on the leadership ballot paper. I am not sure this is something the courts would go near, given the way that Labour is set up.Scott_P said:@Conorpope: Emergency Labour NEC meeting called for Thursday
@PolhomeEditor: The Labour plotters' big bazooka is the resignation of the whips' office, paralysing the opposition. Could happen tonight or tomorrow.
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Would be interesting to see on which side of the house they sit.Scott_P said:It's going to be interesting to see how many Labour MPs turn up for PMQs
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I hope the Lowlands are able to liberate themselves from their central belt oppressors soon.Lowlander said:
We're not throwing coins into a wishing well.SeanT said:
Given that you want to break my country up, I won't take your advice on what's best for my country.Lowlander said:
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.
The decision has been made, the electorate has spoken. This cannot be undone or wished away. Your suggestion - that the UK joins the EEA and quickly - would mean the absolute hammering of the Tories and Labour at the next elections. It could result in civil disobedience in the interim as well. It would be that big a decision.
If you want to keep the UK together you need a better idea. The one you have come up with is an utter fantasy which is completely unworkable.
If you can't come up with a viable idea, then it is time to accept the outcome and face up to making the dissolution of the UK as smooth and quick as possible for everyone's economic sake.0 -
Perhaps so but it's striking that most of Bercows's critics are those bitter that Bercow was a "Cameronite" before Dave was even in the Commons.Charles said:
Meh. I think that was because there were a bunch of people who objected to a ham-fisted assault on the Office of the Speaker by the government, not because people like Bercow specifically.JackW said:
And yet enjoys substantial cross party support as witnessed by the failed pre-election government coup.Charles said:Which is why he is a crap Speaker
Cut past that bile and the regular Daily Mail crap and Bercow is actually a rather decent and reforming Speaker even if given to a dash of pomposity.0 -
I can only hope the Lib Dems are a broad church.OllyT said:
Didn't think I'd ever say this but I am pondering the same but from the ex-Labour direction. I will rejoin for £3 to vote for the next leader but if Corbyn prevails then I'm off.JosiasJessop said:Oh, and perhaps as a sign of my mental infirmity at the moment, I'm seriously considering joining the LibDems. I considered joining either the Lib Dems or Conservatives after the last GE, but am now leaning heavily towards the LDs.
We need an effective opposition in England and Wales, and Labour's too busy opposing itself atm. 0 -
Surely an easy excuse - or indeed a valuable opportunity for people to look hard at some of the biggest financial decisions of their lives. The exception is the top end of the market where I am sure Brexit has a more direct impact.viewcode said:
Yes. Leaving aside my own personal circumstances (which I really don't want to discuss at the mo) a woman in my office who was due to complete on Friday has been informed by her buyers that they are pausing to think about the implications. Whether "pausing" means "not going to proceed" or "hold on a minute, let me think" is not known to me nor her, so this may yet be a hiccup instead of a fallen-thru sale, but it is a source of some concern to the woman in question.Scott_P said:@krishgm: neighbour's house sale just fell through with buyers citing Brexit economic fears. Anyone else hearing such things?
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Why would Danny "5 million unemployed" Blanchflower be considered credible for any kind of review?AlastairMeeks said:
With experts like these ...0 -
They have not said no. They said no to the EU. Anything else is a matter for debate. The polls show there is string support for EFTA membership even when it is explained it would include freedom of movement.Lowlander said:
You Brexit, you bought it.SeanT said:
Who gives a F what you think. Even if Scotland quits we need England and London in the EEA/single market. I suspect economic forces are soon going to make that very clear and apparent to the voters.
England cannot enter the EEA without free movement and the people of England have said NO! I'm not sure what you're missing here. 54% of England voted no and all the evidence points to that being dominated by the desire to end free movement.
The deal is done, you can't wish away the consequences.0 -
Don't forget 'graduates not getting jobzzzz' because we all know they were walking into them before.SeanT said:
Dead Cat Bounce?Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Considering most of our politicians are behaving like idiots that does rather nail the were all doomed meme.MarkHopkins said:Good News.
Pressure has eased on UK financial markets after two days of turmoil in the wake of the Brexit vote, with the FTSE 100 share index closing higher.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36648630
Look, I don't want to be the sad, ranting Cassandra in the corner, but day to day movements in the market are nothing compared to the mood music of companies not investing and banks relocating and big infrastructure projects cancelled and all the rest.
It's like looking at the tea leaves, to see your future, when the tea room is possibly burning down.
And the brand new invention of racist dickheads, forged orc like from the bowels of Brexit Middle Earth.0 -
So who controls the NEC now? Have heard conflicting reports.DanSmith said:
Differing legal advice. And the NEC's final decision is very unlikely to be overturnable in court.RochdalePioneers said:0 -
The referendum question was:Lowlander said:
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"0 -
Mr Cameron did two panicky press conferences in the last week of the campaign. Did they perhaps start using a different pollster?TCPoliticalBetting said:This method was used for the Remain campaign’s internal polling, and led to Populus’s day-of-voting poll showing a 55-45 victory for Remain (we don’t include it in our averages as we don’t consider it a proper poll). "
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What's the better option if you're anti Corbyn.
i) Prevent Corbyn from running and watch him and the unions break from the party.
ii) Let him run, watch him win the election, then 170 MPs break away to form Progressive Labour (or something along those lines).-1 -
U.K. Politics in one tweet
This week 80 Tory MPs wrote telling Cameron to stay so he resigned & 170 Labour MPs told Corbyn to go so he's staying. KEEP UP AT THE BACK.0 -
I did say that it was my impression based on the evidence I've seen.Richard_Tyndall said:
They have not said no. They said no to the EU. Anything else is a matter for debate. The polls show there is string support for EFTA membership even when it is explained it would include freedom of movement.Lowlander said:
You Brexit, you bought it.SeanT said:
Who gives a F what you think. Even if Scotland quits we need England and London in the EEA/single market. I suspect economic forces are soon going to make that very clear and apparent to the voters.
England cannot enter the EEA without free movement and the people of England have said NO! I'm not sure what you're missing here. 54% of England voted no and all the evidence points to that being dominated by the desire to end free movement.
The deal is done, you can't wish away the consequences.
Are you really suggesting there is a reasonable argument where the UK can implement EEA membership and freedom of movement without the Tory and Labour parties being destroyed by the Kippers? I don't see how that can happen.0 -
stand down... for nowTheScreamingEagles said:John Baron is going to be the new Tory leader.
Confirmed: Conservative party board have pushed back leadership deadline to September 9th, after 1922 recommended 2nd - new PM by then
So Mike's on holiday when the result is out.
Mark D'Arcy
@DArcyTiP
53m
John Baron MP says he's taking soundings, has been asked to consider leadership run; not yet committed to running. Sorry if overstated
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Thanks for the considered response - appreciated as always.JosiasJessop said:
I think there's a section(s) on this in one of he HS2 reports: from memory, the faster trains go, the fewer you can fit on any section of line (mainly due to braking distances). However, having slower-speed and faster-speed services on the same track reduces capacity much more. Therefore you might as well go for trains gong fast at roughly the same speed. And if you're doing that, you make them go fast. Especially as that makes them more competitive against air services.MyBurningEars said:
I don't know a lot about rail infrastructure. I understand there is widespread agreement on increasing capacity. I am also led to understand that a large part of HS2's cost comes from the engineering challenges you face if you want to make the trains really fast.JosiasJessop said:
HS2: it all depends on Euston. It needs doing right, yet just that small area could easily sink billions. I still have not seen anything disproving the need for capacity enhancement, and the utter failure of the WCML upgrade ten years ago shows that capacity is hard to increase on working railways.
Something beyond my ken: if you are faced with budget limitations, and capacity is the main issue, why not just make the trains "quite fast" instead? We are talking about distances much smaller than spanning France or Spain, so the difference between "really fast" and "quite fast" won't translate into that many minutes of journey time, which (to my layman's eyes) doesn't seem to affect the fundamental business plan.
Usually there is something more subtle going on that a know-nothing like me is missing, but it does smell a bit "grand project" and there's rarely much gap between that and a white elephant.
There are many problems with this: one is that you need long multi-track sections to allow stopping services to get up to line speed before they join the main line. This is a positive disincentive to having stopping stations.
But there's a reason why so many countries opt for high-speed rail. And it's not just for civic pride.
(I could go into how much of the wheel-rail interaction required for high-speed rail was developed at Derby in the 1950s and 1960s (*) and then given away to Japan, France et al. But I'll just raise my blood pressure).
I can recommend reading HS2's reports, and especially the ones (?Atkins?) that compare it to rival proposals.
(*) e.g. http://www.traintesting.com/HSFV1-6.htm0 -
Dissolve the United Kingdom and the referendum result becomes null and void. A velvet divorce with both parts staying in the EU would be the best scenario for the whole country.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The referendum question was:Lowlander said:
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"0 -
0
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I'm with @RodCrosby - if an interested party wants to challenge the NEC's interpretation of its own rules, the courts will hear the case and decide it.
It would make the Labour party look still more ridiculous but I suppose that barely matters at present.0 -
This is now just a price on her beating Corbyn head-to-head, assuming no resignation. Looks on the big side to me - though will sign-ups be allowed during the election?rottenborough said:Eagle still at 3 on BF
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It wasn'twilliamglenn said:
Dissolve the United Kingdom and the referendum result becomes null and void.Sunil_Prasannan said:
The referendum question was:Lowlander said:
If the UK implements anything which involves freedom of movement, then it will absolutely destroy the Conservatives and in all likelihood will take Labour down with them.SeanT said:This is why we need to move to EEA/Norway NOW. Within months max. Not when the fucking Tories get their new leader in place in 2019, and then decides he doesn't want the single market anyhow.
As AEP said in the Telegraph, Brexit can be fine, indeed good, if we handle it correctly. If it is mishandled it could be disastrous.
I think a Farage government (which would be the outcome) is far more worrying a thought than not being in the EEA.
The decision has been made, the UK voted out to end free movement. Now let's get on with the job of dissolving the UK so we can all move on as separate nations.
"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
"Should Scotland remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" or
"Should England remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?".0
