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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371

    I am rapidly developing the opinion that the only thing that the Remainder crowd fear more than being right about all the post-Brexit doom and gloom is being wrong about it.

    Richard, I eventually voted remain, and I said on Friday I accept the result of the vote. So did others on here.

    But you can't just wave away the real effects the vote is already having. I'm seeing it with my own eyes.

    A friend - a well-paid and well-integrated immigrant - says she had a nightmare of someone setting fire to her house. It's never happened before, and it's a direct result of the tone of the leave debate. An overreaction? Perhaps. But it's real.

    But feel free to ignore it, or disbelieve me.
    I don't disbelieve you but we cannot run policy based upon people's unreasonable fears.
    The campaign you supported *caused* those fears, whether unreasonable or not (*). It's tone was mired in it.

    As an example, the following is from the FB feed of a German friend, who is an architect in the UK, and who worked for one of Germany's top architectural practices before coming over here:

    "... after three days still devastated and somehow not feeling welcome any more."

    (*) I think they are reasonable.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    tyson said:

    Those people who wished the UK ill were those racist fuckers who were told over again that Brexit would make us poorer, wouldn't do anything to sort out immigration, and marginalise our country in the world.....but heh ho, they were so fucking racist, and ignorant that they didn't care.

    So, please, do not blame us.....blame people who voted Brexit.


    You come across as the most prejudiced person on here. Every bit as bad in your own way as these hypothetical "racist fuckers" you rail against.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,439

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    Right ole bollox we've got ourselves into. The UK has whacked itself over the head with a huge, wrought iron frying ban. Right on the noggin. At the same time, the EU has put our nuts in a cracker.....and is slowly going to ease up the tension.

    the EU is crapping itself, dont think otherwise.

    Yes, that's true. The EU is frit, as well. See the Poles calling for huge reform today.

    We may still have enough leverage to get them to offer us a brake on Free Movement, then we can all breathe a sigh of relief and stay in, for now, after a revote. It's just about possible.

    I guess it depends whose economy burns down quickest, between now and September.
    I think it would be an over-simplification to refer to the "EU" as if it is a monolith with one shared agenda and view. My impression is that there is considerable thirst, particularly within the Parliament, for significant reform, and if you work through the comments of leading EU politicians recently a lot of them are saying as much. As with any large organisation there are internal struggles for power, and we have to hope that the more democratic side of the EU makes the most of the opportunity to get some reform on the agenda. If they don't, as others are saying, they too face some significant political risks.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    edited June 2016
    Fox has drifted out to 34.

    Looks like only 4 have any serious chance.

    Stewart Jackson just added to Boris column per Guido - now (including the candidate themselves):

    Boris - 28
    Crabb - 17
    May - 9
    Leadsom - nobody yet
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,673
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    murali_s said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Of the 10 LEAVERS I've spoken to in the last few days, since the vote, at least half are now having serious second thoughts. This ranges from my Dad's Cornish cleaner to posho London journos.

    It's purely anecdotal, I know, but I reckon if a revote was held now it could be a simple switch: 52:48 win for REMAIN.

    And this is before the economic flames now beginning to lick around London become remotely perceptible to most Britons out there, where it seems like nothing has changed.

    In two or three months, IF this contagion spreads, then REMAIN could be 60/40 in public opinion and LEAVE politicians will be howlingly unpopular

    I don't want this to happen, but you can see how, if it does happen, all of our politics will be upended. Boris could be hated.

    And we'd lose all Cameron's concessions, and probably be back in a much worse position wrt the EU than we were last year.

    The voters have voted. We should be fully out.

    If we got for EEA/EFTA many people will be very, very unhappy. Perhaps even violence-on-the-streets-of-London unhappy. That's what Leave sold them.
    We have no brilliant choices. We have a pretty decent choice if we act fast, and join the EEA/single market, promising the people a rethink and the rest of it on free movement when we see the scale of migration in that arrangement

    Fully Out in one wrench could take 5-10% off our economy. Senseless. The vote from the people was LEAVE, it wasn't END ALL IMMIGRATION AND SCREW TRADE AS WELL
    FFS - your lot won. As others have said from both sides - suck it up.

    I voted Remain a few days and Labour last year as I am very pro-EU. I am gutted. I am concerned about the economy and the nervousness of being an immigrant right now. But life has to go on...


    So what would you like the UK to do? Join the EEA? Or leave the single market as well? What?

    Serious question. I'm interested to know how REMAINERS are thinking.

    I'd go for EU membership but with the amendments Dave got in his deal. If we still don't like it in a few years we can always have another vote.

    So you'd simply ignore the vote. Great.
    Of course I was being ironic, but that does seem the best solution right now. Ripping ourselves from the EU was always going to be perilous. Slowly reassessing our relationship, with Dave's deal as the initial step, might have been the safe and wise move.



  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    bunnco said:

    John Baron MP. Basildon and Benefit. Announces run for Leader.
    BBC PolEd says

    That's quite a left of field candidate.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,172
    Omnium said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:



    I really don't know Sean - I'm just a simple middle manager in a corporate.

    Possibly kick Article 50 into the long grass and keep it there for a number of years - but I know the risks with that are huge but the risks with other options could be bigger.

    We are in a huge mess - all self-inflicted.

    Staying in the EU was and still is the best option IMHO.

    I think delaying Article 50 for too long will hang over the economy like a black cloud, ours and in the EU. We need a pre-negotiated settlement and then trigger article 50. Right now the EU is understandably upset at the leave vote, we need to let them calm down over the summer, let the new PM settle in and then let her(!) begin negotiating along with her new team, once an outline is reached then trigger article 50 and have a joint announcement over the timetable for our transition into EFTA and that we will remain a signitory to the EEA agreement and crucially for UK and EU businesses; in the single market, we will also pay into Horizon2020, the single European sky and a few other optional programmes like Erasmus.

    Economic stability prioritised, no mention of the emergency brake, we can solve immigration by making the benefits system contribution based and invest in education and training.
    Good luck with that. We wouldn't be in this mess if that was easy....
    However it perhaps is that easy.
    Don't get me wrong I think it's essential that we do implement a contribution based system and now is about the one time you could implement it. Trouble is I really can't see anyone brave enough to do it. Heck the one thing untouched in the sod you all brexit budget was benefits.

    That really should have been items 1, 2 and 3 in that budget.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    OllyT said:

    SeanT said:

    Danny565 said:


    Yep - I think we can all see the working class flocking to support Corbyn Labour's pro open door immigration, pro-IRA, pro-Hamas platform. When you are living in a dump and not earning enough to warm your house in winter solidarity with the Palestinians is what keeps you going.

    Labour splitters have faired worse in the past.

    When Lab splits which I now see as very likely.

    We will find our if Lab or SDP 2 proves most popular.

    You up for a bet when that point is reached?
    Again, the irony is that an SDP v2 would be based exactly on the principles behind the "Remain" campaign -- the campaign that just got hammered by the voters.

    For all the Labour moderates' asserting (without evidence) that they know how to win elections, their mixture of economic conservatism/cultural liberalism has never been less popular with the country.
    Remain did win 16m+ votes, which is more than any party has ever done. Now, granted, a lot of it might have been grudging support but I wouldn't dismiss it out of hand.
    Of the 10 LEAVERS I've spoken to in the last few days, since the vote, at least half are now having serious second thoughts. This ranges from my Dad's Cornish cleaner to posho London journos.

    It's purely anecdotal, I know, but I reckon if a revote was held now it could be a simple switch: 52:48 win for REMAIN.

    And this is before the economic flames now beginning to lick around London become remotely perceptible to most Britons out there, where it seems like nothing has changed.

    In two or three months, IF this contagion spreads, then REMAIN could be 60/40 in public opinion and LEAVE politicians will be howlingly unpopular

    I don't want this to happen, but you can see how, if it does happen, all of our politics will be upended. Boris could be hated.
    Whereas everyone I know who voted Leave are even more convinced that it was the right thing to do and this stretches from the factory floor to director level.

    Do you really think anyone in the midlands or North or Wales is going to do anything other than laugh about a risk to London property prices or City bonuses ?

    Of course they won't and I don't blame them but where is the guarantee that it will stop there?
    You want guarantees ? I'll give you two guarantees:

    1) the fatcats wont lose out.

    2) if we stay in the EU the establishment will shit all over the midlands, North and Wales for voting Leave
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    IanB2 said:

    And it looks likely that the number of new LibDem members since the 23rd will pass 10,000 before midnight tonight...

    Pie-tastic.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    Right ole bollox we've got ourselves into. The UK has whacked itself over the head with a huge, wrought iron frying ban. Right on the noggin. At the same time, the EU has put our nuts in a cracker.....and is slowly going to ease up the tension.

    the EU is crapping itself, dont think otherwise.

    I'm sure you are right about the EU....but when you have 500 million people and capitalism on your side, the odds are slightly in their favour.
    Are they ? I mean for a start off they havent got all their 500 million people on side and they are having to beat some of them up to make sure they behave. Moreover the rest of the wordl contains 10 times that number and they're all growing faster than the EU.

    If youre a french winemaker or a polish pork farmer your idiotic commissioners who got you in to this mess wont inspre confidence haggling as you watch the aussies and canucks nick your livelihood.

    we should do a deal with Russia too.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,306

    I'm loving #BrexitProblems

    -No-one has given me a job now I've graduated!
    -My skyscraper might not be built!
    -Someone I've talked to is worried!
    -Someone else I've talked to is thinking of moving to France!
    -No-one is certain whether they want to throw finance at my amazing newt-selling app start-up!

    DO YOU SEE WHAT YOU'VE DONE BREXITERS? DO YOU??

    *Rest of Britain gets on with life*

    Sorry, I don't find others' economic misfortune particularly funny.
    The humour lies in the fact that all these issues (aside from not being life and death) were entirely plentiful before. But we don't have uncertainty now, we have brexit uncertainty. We don't have racism, we have brexit racism. We don't have 'I didn't get the job', we have 'Brexit took my job'. It's becoming the new 'immigration' for the metros.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    Pulpstar said:

    Anna Soubry with Jon Snow at the protest.

    What a pair of idiots. And I speak as a remain supporter.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529

    I am rapidly developing the opinion that the only thing that the Remainder crowd fear more than being right about all the post-Brexit doom and gloom is being wrong about it.

    Richard, I eventually voted remain, and I said on Friday I accept the result of the vote. So did others on here.

    But you can't just wave away the real effects the vote is already having. I'm seeing it with my own eyes.

    A friend - a well-paid and well-integrated immigrant - says she had a nightmare of someone setting fire to her house. It's never happened before, and it's a direct result of the tone of the leave debate. An overreaction? Perhaps. But it's real.

    But feel free to ignore it, or disbelieve me.
    I don't disbelieve you but we cannot run policy based upon people's unreasonable fears.
    The campaign you supported *caused* those fears, whether unreasonable or not (*). It's tone was mired in it.

    As an example, the following is from the FB feed of a German friend, who is an architect in the UK, and who worked for one of Germany's top architectural practices before coming over here:

    "... after three days still devastated and somehow not feeling welcome any more."

    (*) I think they are reasonable.
    While the present situation has been causing fears for a decade as people see their jobs and neighbourhoods and lives changed for the worse.

    Yet nobody gave a toss for the Mrs Duffys did they.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:



    I really don't know Sean - I'm just a simple middle manager in a corporate.

    Possibly kick Article 50 into the long grass and keep it there for a number of years - but I know the risks with that are huge but the risks with other options could be bigger.

    We are in a huge mess - all self-inflicted.

    Staying in the EU was and still is the best option IMHO.

    I think delaying Article 50 for too long will hang over the economy like a black cloud, ours and in the EU. We need a pre-negotiated settlement and then trigger article 50. Right now the EU is understandably upset at the leave vote, we need to let them calm down over the summer, let the new PM settle in and then let her(!) begin negotiating along with her new team, once an outline is reached then trigger article 50 and have a joint announcement over the timetable for our transition into EFTA and that we will remain a signitory to the EEA agreement and crucially for UK and EU businesses; in the single market, we will also pay into Horizon2020, the single European sky and a few other optional programmes like Erasmus.

    Economic stability prioritised, no mention of the emergency brake, we can solve immigration by making the benefits system contribution based and invest in education and training.
    I agree but the Leavers say no way.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    A lovely meal at the Moon at Garway, a couple of beers and return to pb to find the country in flames. What on earth are we going to do when something actually bad happens?

    Pedant alert: EU has 443 million proles. They decided they didn't really need about 13% of their population, and 17.5% of their GDP.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    glw said:

    I am rapidly developing the opinion that the only thing that the Remainder crowd fear more than being right about all the post-Brexit doom and gloom is being wrong about it.

    I'm sure that that is the big fear in EU circles as well, not that Brexit will cause chaos, but that it works and others follow our lead.
    In PB circles too.

    Its really sad to see so many posters wishing the country ill. Orwell wouldn't have been surprised though.
    One person's scaremongering is another's I'm really worried. Surely better to accept the divisions that are there [52/48 is not a landslide] and look for a consensus way forward.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371

    Dont fall into Browns investment trap. The vast majority of that £30 billion so called investment is maintenance and renewals.

    You are right about Euston. Concentrating all fast intercity services to the north on one line and terminus is crazy - another reason to cancel the eastern leg and spend the money adding capacity and speed upgrades to ECML and MML instead.

    "The vast majority of that £30 billion so called investment is maintenance and renewals."

    I'm pretty sure that's incorrect (*). From memory the budget is split into three: maintenance, renewals, and improvements (under different names). I *think* income to NR from the TOCs is enough pay for the first two for the last couple of years; it's improvements to the networks that are taking the majority of the budget. But I don't have the figures to hand. Perhaps in the Hendy Report?

    AIUI the capacity constraints are mianly on the WCML, not the ECML and MML.

    (*) But you know your sausages on this, so feel free to correct me.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371

    I am rapidly developing the opinion that the only thing that the Remainder crowd fear more than being right about all the post-Brexit doom and gloom is being wrong about it.

    Richard, I eventually voted remain, and I said on Friday I accept the result of the vote. So did others on here.

    But you can't just wave away the real effects the vote is already having. I'm seeing it with my own eyes.

    A friend - a well-paid and well-integrated immigrant - says she had a nightmare of someone setting fire to her house. It's never happened before, and it's a direct result of the tone of the leave debate. An overreaction? Perhaps. But it's real.

    But feel free to ignore it, or disbelieve me.
    I don't disbelieve you but we cannot run policy based upon people's unreasonable fears.
    The campaign you supported *caused* those fears, whether unreasonable or not (*). It's tone was mired in it.

    As an example, the following is from the FB feed of a German friend, who is an architect in the UK, and who worked for one of Germany's top architectural practices before coming over here:

    "... after three days still devastated and somehow not feeling welcome any more."

    (*) I think they are reasonable.
    While the present situation has been causing fears for a decade as people see their jobs and neighbourhoods and lives changed for the worse.

    Yet nobody gave a toss for the Mrs Duffys did they.
    Whilst the lives of many others have been improved. It's just that it's convenient to blame immigrants for lots of things that are probably more the responsibility of all of us.

    I'm not denying that there are many problems, especially in some communities; and that some things need to change. Perhaps leaving the EU will be that change, or part of it. But the tone has been *all* immigrants are to blame.

    I'm not sure you really gave much of a toss for Mrs Duffy either.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,380

    I am rapidly developing the opinion that the only thing that the Remainder crowd fear more than being right about all the post-Brexit doom and gloom is being wrong about it.

    Richard, I eventually voted remain, and I said on Friday I accept the result of the vote. So did others on here.

    But you can't just wave away the real effects the vote is already having. I'm seeing it with my own eyes.

    A friend - a well-paid and well-integrated immigrant - says she had a nightmare of someone setting fire to her house. It's never happened before, and it's a direct result of the tone of the leave debate. An overreaction? Perhaps. But it's real.

    But feel free to ignore it, or disbelieve me.
    I don't disbelieve you but we cannot run policy based upon people's unreasonable fears.
    The campaign you supported *caused* those fears, whether unreasonable or not (*). It's tone was mired in it.

    As an example, the following is from the FB feed of a German friend, who is an architect in the UK, and who worked for one of Germany's top architectural practices before coming over here:

    "... after three days still devastated and somehow not feeling welcome any more."

    (*) I think they are reasonable.
    While the present situation has been causing fears for a decade as people see their jobs and neighbourhoods and lives changed for the worse.

    Yet nobody gave a toss for the Mrs Duffys did they.
    As a one-time Rochdale resident I feel very concerned for the Mrs Duffy’s. Their neighbourhood has changed immeasurably in the last 40 or so years.

    I also feel concerned for my half-Thai grandchildren, visiting this summer, whose British father is concerned that they’ll experience prejudice when out and about.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142

    Dont fall into Browns investment trap. The vast majority of that £30 billion so called investment is maintenance and renewals.

    You are right about Euston. Concentrating all fast intercity services to the north on one line and terminus is crazy - another reason to cancel the eastern leg and spend the money adding capacity and speed upgrades to ECML and MML instead.

    "The vast majority of that £30 billion so called investment is maintenance and renewals."

    I'm pretty sure that's incorrect (*). From memory the budget is split into three: maintenance, renewals, and improvements (under different names). I *think* income to NR from the TOCs is enough pay for the first two for the last couple of years; it's improvements to the networks that are taking the majority of the budget. But I don't have the figures to hand. Perhaps in the Hendy Report?

    AIUI the capacity constraints are mianly on the WCML, not the ECML and MML.

    (*) But you know your sausages on this, so feel free to correct me.
    See page 30 of the Final Determination:

    http://tinyurl.com/ja7j4l3

    £12.9bn for enhancements. Of course, the assumptions about GWEP proved to be way out and the upshot is that schemes planned for CP5 have now been shoved into CP6.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529
    edited June 2016


    Richard, I eventually voted remain, and I said on Friday I accept the result of the vote. So did others on here.

    But you can't just wave away the real effects the vote is already having. I'm seeing it with my own eyes.

    A friend - a well-paid and well-integrated immigrant - says she had a nightmare of someone setting fire to her house. It's never happened before, and it's a direct result of the tone of the leave debate. An overreaction? Perhaps. But it's real.

    But feel free to ignore it, or disbelieve me.

    I don't disbelieve you but we cannot run policy based upon people's unreasonable fears.
    The campaign you supported *caused* those fears, whether unreasonable or not (*). It's tone was mired in it.

    As an example, the following is from the FB feed of a German friend, who is an architect in the UK, and who worked for one of Germany's top architectural practices before coming over here:

    "... after three days still devastated and somehow not feeling welcome any more."

    (*) I think they are reasonable.
    While the present situation has been causing fears for a decade as people see their jobs and neighbourhoods and lives changed for the worse.

    Yet nobody gave a toss for the Mrs Duffys did they.
    Whilst the lives of many others have been improved. It's just that it's convenient to blame immigrants for lots of things that are probably more the responsibility of all of us.

    I'm not denying that there are many problems, especially in some communities; and that some things need to change. Perhaps leaving the EU will be that change, or part of it. But the tone has been *all* immigrants are to blame.

    I'm not sure you really gave much of a toss for Mrs Duffy either.
    I first pointed out on this site that uncontrolled immigration was going to have disastrous consequences in working class area eight years ago.

    Few people were interested and even fewer cared back then.

    But now the consequences are in full bloom.

    What proportion of the negative effects that working class communities have suffered during the last decade was down to immigration I don't know. It is clearly not the only factor but it is equally clear that it is a factor. And that's something some people are still either denying or don't care about or even in some cases think is a good thing.

    Whether I personally give a toss about the Mrs Duffys is irrelevant. Its not to my advantage for working class communities to be turned into shitholes as the economic and social effects will have knock on effects which would affect me.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,529

    I am rapidly developing the opinion that the only thing that the Remainder crowd fear more than being right about all the post-Brexit doom and gloom is being wrong about it.

    Richard, I eventually voted remain, and I said on Friday I accept the result of the vote. So did others on here.

    But you can't just wave away the real effects the vote is already having. I'm seeing it with my own eyes.

    A friend - a well-paid and well-integrated immigrant - says she had a nightmare of someone setting fire to her house. It's never happened before, and it's a direct result of the tone of the leave debate. An overreaction? Perhaps. But it's real.

    But feel free to ignore it, or disbelieve me.
    I don't disbelieve you but we cannot run policy based upon people's unreasonable fears.
    The campaign you supported *caused* those fears, whether unreasonable or not (*). It's tone was mired in it.

    As an example, the following is from the FB feed of a German friend, who is an architect in the UK, and who worked for one of Germany's top architectural practices before coming over here:

    "... after three days still devastated and somehow not feeling welcome any more."

    (*) I think they are reasonable.
    While the present situation has been causing fears for a decade as people see their jobs and neighbourhoods and lives changed for the worse.

    Yet nobody gave a toss for the Mrs Duffys did they.
    As a one-time Rochdale resident I feel very concerned for the Mrs Duffy’s. Their neighbourhood has changed immeasurably in the last 40 or so years.

    I also feel concerned for my half-Thai grandchildren, visiting this summer, whose British father is concerned that they’ll experience prejudice when out and about.
    We're now dealing with the consequences of unlimited and unprepared for immigration into communities which were likely to be adversely affected by it.

    In addition to the government's lack of concern about the economic changes globalisation would bring.

    Plus the government's obsession with wealth as a measure of success instead of quality of life issues.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:



    I really don't know Sean - I'm just a simple middle manager in a corporate.

    Possibly kick Article 50 into the long grass and keep it there for a number of years - but I know the risks with that are huge but the risks with other options could be bigger.

    We are in a huge mess - all self-inflicted.

    Staying in the EU was and still is the best option IMHO.

    I think delaying Article 50 for too long will hang over the economy like a black cloud, ours and in the EU. We need a pre-negotiated settlement and then trigger article 50. Right now the EU is understandably upset at the leave vote, we need to let them calm down over the summer, let the new PM settle in and then let her(!) begin negotiating along with her new team, once an outline is reached then trigger article 50 and have a joint announcement over the timetable for our transition into EFTA and that we will remain a signitory to the EEA agreement and crucially for UK and EU businesses; in the single market, we will also pay into Horizon2020, the single European sky and a few other optional programmes like Erasmus.

    Economic stability prioritised, no mention of the emergency brake, we can solve immigration by making the benefits system contribution based and invest in education and training.
    Immigration is already solved. Britain has made itself poorer and more racist. It'll go down on its own. The next prime minister just needs an excuse to take the credit for it.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:



    I really don't know Sean - I'm just a simple middle manager in a corporate.

    Possibly kick Article 50 into the long grass and keep it there for a number of years - but I know the risks with that are huge but the risks with other options could be bigger.

    We are in a huge mess - all self-inflicted.

    Staying in the EU was and still is the best option IMHO.

    I think delaying Article 50 for too long will hang over the economy like a black cloud, ours and in the EU. We need a pre-negotiated settlement and then trigger article 50.
    You don't get that. No negotiation before notification is the clear legal position.

    No talks start till the article 50 letter goes in.
This discussion has been closed.