politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first
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Mr. (Alistair) M, welcome to pb.com.
May peruse the Austrian markets soon, see if anything leaps out at me.0 -
Always remember & never forget - the majority of graduates voted Remain, the majority with a criminal record voted Leave.RealBritain said:
Eloquent, persuasive, rational - the argument won in a flash.GeoffM said:
Bollocks.RealBritain said:
There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.GeoffM said:
There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.RealBritain said:
Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.
Mostly imagined.
Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
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If things pan out that way - and I share your view - then it makes the LibDem position look a lot more realistic.Innocent_Abroad said:
There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.AlistairM said:Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.
The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.
I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.
Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!
I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.
As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.
2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.
And shines a highlight on Labour's problem. UKIP are no-EU no free movement. The Tories are EEA/EFTA. LibDems are EU. What are Labour? Or even the two halves of Labour?0 -
Yep, stocks and currencies looking like a sea of green in early trading, although short of regaining yesterday's losses. At least it's moving in the right direction, and while there will be volatility ahead it's not close to the doom-laden prophecies of some during the campaign.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.0 -
Heh
Sadiq Khan on an independent London: "I'm not planning to blockade the m25, although I do like the sound of El Presidente." #TimesCEOsummit0 -
No were not, we are angry because we said this all through the campaign. And in return we just had the smug scaremongering reply.MP_SE said:
No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.Fenster said:
I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
I'm confident it won't.
And the recession is coming to pass, and it is going to be worse than project fear spelt out. Our real economy is now grinding to a shuddering halt.....don't look at the ups and downs of the stock market (which is bad enough)- look at people and businesses spending money, banks lending money. I think you'll find we've hit a wall.
I am so annoyed because we can no more think that we can exist outside Europe, outside the common market than we could living without a vital organ.
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The deal Cameron negotiated would not now be passed following the referendum and we would return to the EU humiliated and ready to be steamrollered. The best bet is May takes over, unites the country and takes us into EFTA and any disappointed Leavers can go to UKIP if they so desirelogical_song said:
What does that mean?HYUFD said:
We would lose the renegotiationRobD said:
Not saying it's going to happen, but we wouldn't be forced into anything as we haven't triggered article 50.HYUFD said:
No as that would lead to national humiliation, a return to the EU with full integration and maybe the Euro toomurali_s said:Is the country trying to emerge from this clusterf*ck by having a second referendum? This seems to be gaining traction.
Legally the referendum was advisory and legally if we don't trigger article 50 then we are back in the status quo before last Thursday.0 -
No, I don't think so.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
The sooner those who wanted Brexit take power the better. I hope they make it work for the sake of my financial well being if nothing else. You'll forgive me if I think that we would have been better off remaining.0 -
Mainly becauseInnocent_Abroad said:
Always remember & never forget - the majority of graduates voted Remain, the majority with a criminal record voted Leave.RealBritain said:
Eloquent, persuasive, rational - the argument won in a flash.GeoffM said:
Bollocks.RealBritain said:
There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.GeoffM said:
There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.RealBritain said:
Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.
Mostly imagined.
Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.
a) the youngsters have more degrees because they were dumbed down. Only 5% of people over 60 went to University. 50% of those under 30 have.and
b) People aged over 60 have had a full life to obtain a criminal record.0 -
Do you agree that the EU needs enormous reform?notme said:
I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.tyson said:
I know- I'm so frustrated and angry about Brexit. There were a few people like you and Richard looking at what the implications were for the single market, and drawn to Brexit on the legal side.notme said:
If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.tyson said:notme said:
Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?Richard_Tyndall said:
EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
But Brexit won on the basis of immigration. Simple as. Taking back control- was a dog whistle to say that we could stop immigration. And what is going to happen now when all those people who voted Brexit to stop immigration now realise that they were fooled? And they were fooled because it is impossible that UK capitalism will allow us to operate without access to the single market.
If you do, then do you think voting for Remain would've provoked reform?
I'm quietly confident at the moment that our shock exit might, just might, be the catalyst for reform that benefits everybody on the continent. Apart from the arch-federalists.
I might be wrong, but Brexit might get the EU's arse into gear.0 -
SouthamObserver said:
Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
Sounds encouraging.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.0 -
Sky News Breaking
Last nights football match between England and Iceland is to be rerun as a minority of fans didn't like the outcome.0 -
Why are Brexiteers turning into such cowards?
Michael Gove a no-show at @thetimes CEO summit. "Not so much Brexit as Leggsit" says @PCollinsTimes0 -
Did any of the footballers cheat?Moses_ said:Sky News Breaking
Last nights football match between England and Iceland is to be rerun as a minority of fans didn't like the outcome.0 -
I only heard a bit of his interview when driving this morning but what he said was spot on. The candidates for PM must be clear and realistic about what they hope to achieve in the negotiations with the EU. This requires a clear sighted vision of what is in the UK's interest now reflecting the reality of the vote. If they have that it does not matter so much if they were for Leave or Remain.AlastairMeeks said:George Osborne is a young man. He may yet have a long contribution to politics ahead of him.
OTOH it would be realistic to acknowledge that those who led the Leave campaign will get cut a little more slack in any backtracking than someone who was a Remainer who will face accusations of trying to reverse the vote.
This country will be much the poorer if George Osborne does not continue to contribute to its public life for a long time yet.0 -
Almost recovered yesterday's falls. Still miles off the falls since Friday.GIN1138 said:
Sounds encouraging.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.0 -
Surely if we end up in the EEA and have to agree to the free movement of EU/EEA citizens this will go against the Leave promise of a points-based system of controls.
Not only that but weren't we warned that Turkey was about to enter the EU. We are no longer going to have a say or veto over their accession. Nor are the (much derided) limits on access to benefits negotiated by Cameron going to apply.
How can someone like Johnson possibly face the electorate and say you voted Leave and, you know what, we now have even less control over who comes here.
Or am I being niaive?0 -
What about if every party, UKIP aside, put continued membership in their manifesto? Could get very interesting then!Innocent_Abroad said:
There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.AlistairM said:Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.
The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.
I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.
When there is a new PM they should do the following:
- Confirm out has to be out
- Not invoke A50 immediately
- Join EFTA as a starting point
- Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
- Look at setting up a new freedom of movement zone with countries of similar economic standing (Canada, Australia, NZ initially). Others can join if they meet strict economic criteria - no fudging of the rules like the EU did.
- Persuade Ireland that they would be better off in our new economic world than shackle themselves to the failing EU
- When we are ready then invoke A50
Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!
I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.
As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.
2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.0 -
Will you stop it. Even during the 2008 crisis, when banks were on the verge of running out of money, collapsing and bringing the real world economy to ruin, the markets were fluctuating daily.Sandpit said:
Yep, stocks and currencies looking like a sea of green in early trading, although short of regaining yesterday's losses. At least it's moving in the right direction, and while there will be volatility ahead it's not close to the doom-laden prophecies of some during the campaign.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.
Stock markets will eventually go up.....but Brexit will cause a correction and have a significant impact on the real economy- that part that raise taxes to pay for our NHS.
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If so, it would be a shame to be out of it, wouldn't it?Fenster said:
Do you agree that the EU needs enormous reform?notme said:
I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.tyson said:
I know- I'm so frustrated and angry about Brexit. There were a few people like you and Richard looking at what the implications were for the single market, and drawn to Brexit on the legal side.notme said:
If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.tyson said:notme said:
Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?Richard_Tyndall said:
EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
But Brexit won on the basis of immigration. Simple as. Taking back control- was a dog whistle to say that we could stop immigration. And what is going to happen now when all those people who voted Brexit to stop immigration now realise that they were fooled? And they were fooled because it is impossible that UK capitalism will allow us to operate without access to the single market.
If you do, then do you think voting for Remain would've provoked reform?
I'm quietly confident at the moment that our shock exit might, just might, be the catalyst for reform that benefits everybody on the continent. Apart from the arch-federalists.
I might be wrong, but Brexit might get the EU's arse into gear.0 -
That was the immigration policy Mr Hannan appeared to be outlining in his recent TV interviews, but he's not the decision maker.JamesM said:
What I don't understand is whether EFTA/EEA allows us to revert to free movement of labour over people; thus only guaranteeing access to those with job offers?
Whatever deal the UK strikes with the EU, it will be customised to fit the UK. It won't be exactly Norway, or Turkey etc. I'll be very surprised if it doesn't include UK control over immigration.
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And all racists voted Leave...Innocent_Abroad said:
Always remember & never forget - the majority of graduates voted Remain, the majority with a criminal record voted Leave.RealBritain said:
Eloquent, persuasive, rational - the argument won in a flash.GeoffM said:
Bollocks.RealBritain said:
There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.GeoffM said:
There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.RealBritain said:
Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.
Mostly imagined.
Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.0 -
There was always going to be a very significant initial reaction to Brexit because business in general and the markets in particular, tend to over-react to shocks, surprises, etc.logical_song said:
Almost recovered yesterday's falls. Still miles off the falls since Friday.GIN1138 said:
Sounds encouraging.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.
Hopefully after a few days things will steady...0 -
Would you also like the moon on a stick?AlistairM said:
When there is a new PM they should do the following:
- Confirm out has to be out
- Not invoke A50 immediately
- Join EFTA as a starting point
- Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
- Look at setting up a new freedom of movement zone with countries of similar economic standing (Canada, Australia, NZ initially). Others can join if they meet strict economic criteria - no fudging of the rules like the EU did.
- Persuade Ireland that they would be better off in our new economic world than shackle themselves to the failing EU
- When we are ready then invoke A500 -
LOL!Alistair said:
Would you also like the moon on a stick?AlistairM said:
When there is a new PM they should do the following:
- Confirm out has to be out
- Not invoke A50 immediately
- Join EFTA as a starting point
- Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
- Look at setting up a new freedom of movement zone with countries of similar economic standing (Canada, Australia, NZ initially). Others can join if they meet strict economic criteria - no fudging of the rules like the EU did.
- Persuade Ireland that they would be better off in our new economic world than shackle themselves to the failing EU
- When we are ready then invoke A500 -
Not if there's a second referendum and we get back in it.logical_song said:
If so, it would be a shame to be out of it, wouldn't it?Fenster said:
Do you agree that the EU needs enormous reform?notme said:
I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.tyson said:notme said:
If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.tyson said:notme said:
Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?Richard_Tyndall said:
EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
If you do, then do you think voting for Remain would've provoked reform?
I'm quietly confident at the moment that our shock exit might, just might, be the catalyst for reform that benefits everybody on the continent. Apart from the arch-federalists.
I might be wrong, but Brexit might get the EU's arse into gear.
Don't forget the EU is going to lose 19% of its GDP when we exit. There will be a flurry of diplomacy and hard-thinking done over the next two years.. there will be extreme reluctance to let Britain go.
The negotiations post-Brexit will likely be kinder than they were pre-Brexit.0 -
The problem is, as long as we don't know what's happening, any improvements in the markets can be taken to mean "they think we're not leaving the EU/not leaving the stuff that matters."Sandpit said:
Yep, stocks and currencies looking like a sea of green in early trading, although short of regaining yesterday's losses. At least it's moving in the right direction, and while there will be volatility ahead it's not close to the doom-laden prophecies of some during the campaign.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.0 -
Italy
The FT reports the italians are going to be having a referendum soon on reforming their political system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_constitutional_referendum,_20160 -
There is a division, those that are either unelected or are elected in a way that no one makes them accountable (EU commission and EU parliament) are quite keen to punish the UK for putting their project at risk. It's all the fault of the UK for not wanting to play their part. We never really wanted you anyway, F Off and dont let the door hit you on the way out.
National leaders though, who have an electorate, have local industries that trade, have massive migration moves to the UK and know that ripping out the second largest economy in the EU away will have implications if we dont do it as smooth as possible.
Not only are we the second largest economy, we are the most dynamic economy, we have FULL employment, we absorb 500,000 workers a year and still our unemployment rates drop.
It seems clear we are going to suffer some economic consequences for this, but it is in everyone's interest that it goes well.
If the EU had taken Cameron's pleadings seriously, they could have gave him some real concessions. They didnt.0 -
"The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold."IanB2 said:
If things pan out that way - and I share your view - then it makes the LibDem position look a lot more realistic.Innocent_Abroad said:
There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.AlistairM said:Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.
The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.
I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.
Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!
I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.
As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.
2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.
And shines a highlight on Labour's problem. UKIP are no-EU no free movement. The Tories are EEA/EFTA. LibDems are EU. What are Labour? Or even the two halves of Labour?
An optimistic view, but the best option for the country. The 48.1% plus Bremorsers should carry it.0 -
You really do need to actually learn something about how the EEA works before trying to post on the subject.Jobabob said:
EEA/EFTA is the least worst alternative - but it leaves the situation on the ground largely unchanged albeit with the U.K having far less influence than it did when in the EU. So what was the point of all this? Just to rattle the hearts of a few xenophobic Red BNP types who won't get what they want anyway.OldKingCole said:
What you seem to be looking at is a Norway-style arrangement. Fraragists will indeed dislike it.numbertwelve said:
Pragmatically, I cannot see any good alternative to EEA/EFTA at this moment in time. We have two years once Article 50 is invoked. This is not a long time to get alternative trade deals in place. Indeed, it looks like a near impossibility and we would not be negotiating from a position of strength.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
Can someone who favours EFTA/EEA please inform me how, if at all, this membership option meets these requirements? I can see benefits compared to EU membership, but I know many colleagues who think it is worse than EU membership. I also wonder if it could be a transition model, which we may, if we want leave eventually if our trade with Europe declines further?
The EUs likelihood to budge on anything like the four freedoms at this moment in time looks incredibly slim.
So we are either stuck at the end of two years reverting to WTO rules, with a very slim likelihood of any free trade deals of importance in place (which is very much a nuclear option) or we go for the quick-fix option of retaining access to the single market and free movement, with the benefit of being able to pursue our own trade deals in the meantime.
I think it is inconceivable we'll plump for anything else. The difference between leaders will be maybe how it is sold. Some might stress it as a more temporary solution than others.
Mr Farage will, of course, have a field day.0 -
As someone who voted Leave I would say that it is too early to say. The problem is that Brexit has got tangled up in a series of other issues, such as the parlous state of EZ banks. It has acted as something of a trigger or catalyst for some serious lumps in the carpet that everyone has been doing their best to ignore and step over. These issues have not gone away. The road ahead looks somewhat bumpy (that's enough metaphors for one morning, ed).Sandpit said:
Yep, stocks and currencies looking like a sea of green in early trading, although short of regaining yesterday's losses. At least it's moving in the right direction, and while there will be volatility ahead it's not close to the doom-laden prophecies of some during the campaign.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.0 -
The number one cause of recessions is people saying there will be a recession.tyson said:
No were not, we are angry because we said this all through the campaign. And in return we just had the smug scaremongering reply.MP_SE said:
No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.Fenster said:
I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
I'm confident it won't.
And the recession is coming to pass
You just can't help yourself, can you?
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Rooney thought he was going to score.logical_song said:
Did any of the footballers cheat?Moses_ said:Sky News Breaking
Last nights football match between England and Iceland is to be rerun as a minority of fans didn't like the outcome.0 -
Check out those Don't Know figures!anotherDave said:Italy
The FT reports the italians are going to be having a referendum soon on reforming their political system.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_constitutional_referendum,_20160 -
Sky live from Brussels parly now0
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We'd lose a percentage of our GDP if/when Scotland becomes independent. It's not that the GDP of the remaining EU is dropping - except in as much as UK/EU trade shift will affect both them and us.Fenster said:
Not if there's a second referendum and we get back in it.logical_song said:
If so, it would be a shame to be out of it, wouldn't it?Fenster said:
Do you agree that the EU needs enormous reform?notme said:
I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.tyson said:notme said:
If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.tyson said:notme said:
Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?Richard_Tyndall said:
EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
If you do, then do you think voting for Remain would've provoked reform?
I'm quietly confident at the moment that our shock exit might, just might, be the catalyst for reform that benefits everybody on the continent. Apart from the arch-federalists.
I might be wrong, but Brexit might get the EU's arse into gear.
Don't forget the EU is going to lose 19% of its GDP when we exit. There will be a flurry of diplomacy and hard-thinking done over the next two years.. there will be extreme reluctance to let Britain go.
The negotiations post-Brexit will likely be kinder than they were pre-Brexit.0 -
Stop lying.murali_s said:
And all racists voted Leave...Innocent_Abroad said:
Always remember & never forget - the majority of graduates voted Remain, the majority with a criminal record voted Leave.RealBritain said:
Eloquent, persuasive, rational - the argument won in a flash.GeoffM said:
Bollocks.RealBritain said:
There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.GeoffM said:
There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.RealBritain said:
Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.
Mostly imagined.
Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.0 -
From a statistically-inclined friend ...
by the time we leave, in say 2019, probably 5% of Leave voters will be dead. Far fewer Remain voters will have died as they are younger.
Meanwhile, more young Remainers will be on the register and a few Leavers will still have have buyer's remorse.
Consequently, there may be no popular mandate for Exit by the time we, er, exit.
So, there probably has to be another plebiscite to ratify the terms on which we become an Associate Member, Semi-Detached Member, Non-Member or whatever.0 -
FFS.... Grow up. I last heard that type of argument in the playground of my infants school 55years ago.logical_song said:
Did any of the footballers cheat?Moses_ said:Sky News Breaking
Last nights football match between England and Iceland is to be rerun as a minority of fans didn't like the outcome.0 -
Don't disagree with that. We need a stable government quickly in place with a clear direction. A functioning opposition would also be useful but I'm not holding out for that any time soon! IMHO an Autumn General Election would be a distraction from the huge amount of work that's required.tlg86 said:
The problem is, as long as we don't know what's happening, any improvements in the markets can be taken to mean "they think we're not leaving the EU/not leaving the stuff that matters."Sandpit said:
Yep, stocks and currencies looking like a sea of green in early trading, although short of regaining yesterday's losses. At least it's moving in the right direction, and while there will be volatility ahead it's not close to the doom-laden prophecies of some during the campaign.Paul_Bedfordshire said:FTSE UP 134 (2.2%)
Pound UP from its low of 1.31 against dollar to 1.33.0 -
The causes of any recession are currency, stock market and business related - and due to Brexit, not anybody on PB expressing an opinion.ThreeQuidder said:
The number one cause of recessions is people saying there will be a recession.tyson said:
No were not, we are angry because we said this all through the campaign. And in return we just had the smug scaremongering reply.MP_SE said:
No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.Fenster said:
I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
I'm confident it won't.
And the recession is coming to pass
You just can't help yourself, can you?0 -
They'll be replaced by young ones getting older and being more euroscepticrural_voter said:From a statistically-inclined friend ...
by the time we leave, in say 2019, probably 5% of Leave voters will be dead. Far fewer Remain voters will have died as they are younger.
Meanwhile, more young Remainers will be on the register and a few Leavers will still have have buyer's remorse.
Consequently, there may be no popular mandate for Exit by the time we, er, exit.
So, there probably has to be another plebiscite to ratify the terms on which we become an Associate Member, Semi-Detached Member, Non-Member or whatever.
0 -
His name wasn't George by any chance? There are assumptions in every one of those trends which may or may not be vindicated, a bit like the growth projections during the campaign. A more likely scenario is that a significant part of the Remain support will accept the decision in better grace than most of our media is showing and move on.rural_voter said:From a statistically-inclined friend ...
by the time we leave, in say 2019, probably 5% of Leave voters will be dead. Far fewer Remain voters will have died as they are younger.
Meanwhile, more young Remainers will be on the register and a few Leavers will still have have buyer's remorse.
Consequently, there may be no popular mandate for Exit by the time we, er, exit.
So, there probably has to be another plebiscite to ratify the terms on which we become an Associate Member, Semi-Detached Member, Non-Member or whatever.0 -
Do you think Banksy voted leave?murali_s said:
And all racists voted Leave...Innocent_Abroad said:
Always remember & never forget - the majority of graduates voted Remain, the majority with a criminal record voted Leave.RealBritain said:
Eloquent, persuasive, rational - the argument won in a flash.GeoffM said:
Bollocks.RealBritain said:
There's a simple choice for some people on the Leave side ; accept that this is linked to the referendum early on, and try to mitigate it by denunciation and disassociation from the actual objectives of the leave campaign. Denial, instead will leave it to fester and deepen, and then the blame apportioned will be far, far more serious.GeoffM said:
There's always going to be background noise unpleasantness, real or imagined.RealBritain said:
Your posts and tone are becoming more and more objectionable, I'm afraid. This "faux hostility" you're imagining is real, and has consequences for millions of people.
Mostly imagined.
Stop projecting it all on to freedom and a victory that you choose to sneer at.0 -
Reality Check: Have Leave campaigners changed their minds?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-366413900 -
Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.0
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Hmm. Does Leanne Wood realise that most of Wales voted for independence?
Sturgeon's posturing for advantage, but at least Scotland did actually vote to Remain. Wood's argument appears to be, er, not necessarily in keeping with the laws of reason.
"We voted for something, and we got it. Therefore, we must get our independence because... um...."
Edited extra bit: ha, meant 'to leave the EU', rather than 'independence', but you knew that.0 -
I'm getting the distinct impression that Ms Woods is just aping Sturgeon and hasn't applied a single braincell to why it doesn't make any sense.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Does Leanne Wood realise that most of Wales voted for independence?
Sturgeon's posturing for advantage, but at least Scotland did actually vote to Remain. Wood's argument appears to be, er, not necessarily in keeping with the laws of reason.
"We voted for something, and we got it. Therefore, we must get our independence because... um...."
Edited extra bit: ha, meant 'to leave the EU', rather than 'independence', but you knew that.0 -
Fantastic accent though.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Does Leanne Wood realise that most of Wales voted for independence?
Sturgeon's posturing for advantage, but at least Scotland did actually vote to Remain. Wood's argument appears to be, er, not necessarily in keeping with the laws of reason.
"We voted for something, and we got it. Therefore, we must get our independence because... um...."
Edited extra bit: ha, meant 'to leave the EU', rather than 'independence', but you knew that.0 -
You'd think Holland and France rejecting the EU Constitution would have done that. But they just rolled on.Fenster said:
Do you agree that the EU needs enormous reform?notme said:
I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.tyson said:
I know- I'm so frustrated and angry about Brexit. There were a few people like you and Richard looking at what the implications were for the single market, and drawn to Brexit on the legal side.notme said:
If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.tyson said:notme said:
Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?Richard_Tyndall said:
EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
But Brexit won on the basis of immigration. Simple as. Taking back control- was a dog whistle to say that we could stop immigration. And what is going to happen now when all those people who voted Brexit to stop immigration now realise that they were fooled? And they were fooled because it is impossible that UK capitalism will allow us to operate without access to the single market.
If you do, then do you think voting for Remain would've provoked reform?
I'm quietly confident at the moment that our shock exit might, just might, be the catalyst for reform that benefits everybody on the continent. Apart from the arch-federalists.
I might be wrong, but Brexit might get the EU's arse into gear.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanine_Hennis-PlasschaertSandpit said:
She is good. No idea who she is though.PlatoSaid said:Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.
From one of our oldest allies, obviously 0 -
Britain leaving is an order of magnitude larger.anotherDave said:
You'd think Holland and France rejecting the EU Constitution would have done that. But they just rolled on.Fenster said:
Do you agree that the EU needs enormous reform?notme said:
I agree that I cannot see how we could realistically not want to be a member of the single market. As i told my MP, what thatcherite Tory would not want to be a member of the Single Market? It's her raison d'etre across a continent.tyson said:
I know- I'm so frustrated and angry about Brexit. There were a few people like you and Richard looking at what the implications were for the single market, and drawn to Brexit on the legal side.notme said:
If you see any of my posts over the last six months you will see I've made repeated comments that we need to remain in the Single Market.tyson said:notme said:
Do you think EFTA/EEA would give us more flexibility to reduce the pull factors that made us a disproportionate pull?Richard_Tyndall said:
EFTA/EEA will give you all those things with the exception of immigration control. So it depends on how important that issue is to you.JamesM said:Morning all. As a Conservative member and Vote Leave supporter I have no particular requirement for the next Prime Minister to be a Brexit supporter. My only requirement and expectation here is that the new PM invokes Article 50 and fulfils the will of the British people asap and prior to any further General Election or second referendum. Keep delaying things will undermine public trust and further de-stabilise the markets.
In terms of alternative options, my preference has always been a bespoke UK deal. My main priorities are to enhance UK sovereignty and democracy, gain the ability to set-up our own trade deals and to be able to more effectively control immigration bringing it under UK democratic governance.
But Brexit won on the basis of immigration. Simple as. Taking back control- was a dog whistle to say that we could stop immigration. And what is going to happen now when all those people who voted Brexit to stop immigration now realise that they were fooled? And they were fooled because it is impossible that UK capitalism will allow us to operate without access to the single market.
If you do, then do you think voting for Remain would've provoked reform?
I'm quietly confident at the moment that our shock exit might, just might, be the catalyst for reform that benefits everybody on the continent. Apart from the arch-federalists.
I might be wrong, but Brexit might get the EU's arse into gear.0 -
I'm sure all Con party MPs are focused on the leadership contest. They won't have free time for beanos.TheScreamingEagles said:Why are Brexiteers turning into such cowards?
Michael Gove a no-show at @thetimes CEO summit. "Not so much Brexit as Leggsit" says @PCollinsTimes
0 -
Who is the blonde woman speaking at the European parliament on Sky news? she is extremely sane!!!0
-
Where's Sunil? She almost called for the EU to be reorganised for a safe and secure society... almost.
0 -
That's her! Thanks.RobD said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanine_Hennis-PlasschaertSandpit said:
She is good. No idea who she is though.PlatoSaid said:Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.
From one of our oldest allies, obviously
Very sensible speech. Sounds like she understands why the vote went the way it did, and that the EU needs to be reformed if it is to prosper in the future.0 -
Here comes Junker...0
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She has a lovely portrait on the EU website.Fenster said:
I was thinking the same thing..PlatoSaid said:Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.
I just typed in 'Mature Blondes' in a bid to find out who she was
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/28176/JEANINE_HENNIS-PLASSCHAERT_home.html
Brains and beauty, what could be better?
Speak of the devil.. Juncker 0 -
Miss Plato, on a scale of shandy to absinthe, how stable is he?0
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Hurrah for sensible measured debate... Lets see what Junker says,,Sandpit said:
That's her! Thanks.RobD said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanine_Hennis-PlasschaertSandpit said:
She is good. No idea who she is though.PlatoSaid said:Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.
From one of our oldest allies, obviously
Very sensible speech. Sounds like she understands why the vote went the way it did, and that the EU needs to be reformed if it is to prosper in the future.0 -
I'm sure there'll be books on this in the next few years, but the impression I get is that Mr Cameron didn't ask for anything.notme said:If the EU had taken Cameron's pleadings seriously, they could have gave him some real concessions. They didnt.
He appears to have taken a very pro-EU attitude along, and wanted to get the UK electorate to endorse the current deal, not offer them a less-EU deal.
0 -
@BBCNormanS: "If the uk decides to leave" says council spokeswoman . "If"0
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Belligerent from the startnotme said:
Hurrah for sensible measured debate... Lets see what Junker says,,Sandpit said:
That's her! Thanks.RobD said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeanine_Hennis-PlasschaertSandpit said:
She is good. No idea who she is though.PlatoSaid said:Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.
From one of our oldest allies, obviously
Very sensible speech. Sounds like she understands why the vote went the way it did, and that the EU needs to be reformed if it is to prosper in the future. 0 -
Drunker up next, making an arse of himself again - having a go at Farage for having the temerity to turn up.0
-
Mr. Dave, that's my view as well. Cameron's arrogant complacency extended to the ill-named negotiations, as well as the disastrous campaign.0
-
Different style. She speaks to the 'people', he speaks to the Parliament monkeys. OMFG he's now attacking MEPs who campaigned for exit. What a total C***.0
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I suspect if, say PM Boris (worst case) came on the TV and announced that the new deal was finalised and, upon questioning admitted that there would still be free movement there would be howls of rage (at least!). I say suspect because I’ve not talked to many people, only read and heard media reports.
What does come across to me is that many people voted leave because they were fed up with a) the country changing immeasurably from what it was 30+ years ago and b) that when they grumbled about that they were patted on the head and told they didn’t understand. Or similar!
I get the impression that if we end up in EFTA, and there are still opportunities here, that we’ll still have Romanian car-washers, pizza deiverers and bar staff. Oh, and Bulgarian carers.0 -
My colleague has just admitted she fancies Osborne and he'd get her vote
! 0 -
Tyson you very sensibly said a few days ago that there was no point even looking at the effects of Brexit overall for 6 months. We just won't know until we have enough data.tyson said:
No were not, we are angry because we said this all through the campaign. And in return we just had the smug scaremongering reply.MP_SE said:
No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.Fenster said:
I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
I'm confident it won't.
And the recession is coming to pass, and it is going to be worse than project fear spelt out. Our real economy is now grinding to a shuddering halt.....don't look at the ups and downs of the stock market (which is bad enough)- look at people and businesses spending money, banks lending money. I think you'll find we've hit a wall.
I am so annoyed because we can no more think that we can exist outside Europe, outside the common market than we could living without a vital organ.
I would suggest you stick to that rather than bigging up your own fears.0 -
I loved him saying that he'd had to cancel meetings to come to the Parly - but it was important. He's so full of himself.notme said:Different style. She speaks to the 'people', he speaks to the Parliament monkeys. OMFG he's now attacking MEPs who campaigned for exit. What a total C***.
It's all about him during this speech - it's bizarre.0 -
She's Dutch tooRobD said:
She has a lovely portrait on the EU website.Fenster said:
I was thinking the same thing..PlatoSaid said:Who's the blond lady at #2 in the EU parly? She's very sensible and eloquent.
I just typed in 'Mature Blondes' in a bid to find out who she was
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/28176/JEANINE_HENNIS-PLASSCHAERT_home.html
Brains and beauty, what could be better?
Speak of the devil.. Juncker
I bet she's very liberal in her views!0 -
I wonder whether the Tories who object to the EU on the grounds that its parliamentary processes are undemocratic will be voting to reform the House of Lords?0
-
That's like the fourth time he's asked us to clarify our position, although he did just say "not today or tomorrow at 9am", so a bit of leeway there!0
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he's not a grey bureaucrat or technocrat, says the grayest bureaucrat and technocrat ever...0
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The house of Commons is (should be) the ultimate authority, especially given the Parliament Act. Maybe we should let the Labour peers knowTheKrakenAwakes said:I wonder whether the Tories who object to the EU on the grounds that its parliamentary processes are undemocratic will be voting to reform the House of Lords?
0 -
Drunker says basically that no-one in Brussles is to talk to anyone British until Article 50 is declared.0
-
I'll admit, this is the longest I've ever watched the European Parliament for....0
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In my opinion, Boris lost all right to take over once it was clear he had no earthly idea what to do next. Same goes for most of the other Leavers. Now that we're in this mess, there are probably two alternatives - either go for the safest pair of hands you can think of, which must be May, or go for the most nationally uniting ticket, which would be Crabb and Javid. I honestly hope the Tories go for the latter, though I don't really think they will.
It also occurs to me that this is such a frenzied time because there are a lot of, at least perceived, last chances. This is probably the last chance to come up with a solution that will save the UK as a country for the next 10 years; the last chance for Labour to get rid of Corbyn before he leads them to disaster; maybe the last chance for the EU to save itself before collapsing under the weight of unbalanced economies and continent-wide unpopularity.
With so much being at stake, can there be any justification (other than watching him fail) to putting Boris in charge?0 -
If that happened, then look to see UKIP .win 30% or so.BigIan said:
What about if every party, UKIP aside, put continued membership in their manifesto? Could get very interesting then!Innocent_Abroad said:
There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.AlistairM said:Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.
The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.
I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.
When there is a new PM they should do the following:
- Confirm out has to be out
- Not invoke A50 immediately
- Join EFTA as a starting point
- Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
-
Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!
I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.
As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.
2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.0 -
I do love nigel sitting next to him!!!
Top Trolling!!
0 -
I suspect the coming Brexit recession will be driven in good part by business investment dropping off a cliff, thanks to the uncertainty and damage that a Leave vote has delivered.logical_song said:
The causes of any recession are currency, stock market and business related - and due to Brexit, not anybody on PB expressing an opinion.ThreeQuidder said:
The number one cause of recessions is people saying there will be a recession.tyson said:
No were not, we are angry because we said this all through the campaign. And in return we just had the smug scaremongering reply.MP_SE said:
No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.Fenster said:
I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
I'm confident it won't.
And the recession is coming to pass
You just can't help yourself, can you?0 -
Am about to get on a plane in just over an hour.. I wonder if Corbyn will still be leader when I land?
0 -
... and come second in lots of places, maybe win 10MPs.Sean_F said:
If that happened, then look to see UKIP .win 30% or so.BigIan said:
What about if every party, UKIP aside, put continued membership in their manifesto? Could get very interesting then!Innocent_Abroad said:
There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.AlistairM said:Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.
The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.
I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.
When there is a new PM they should do the following:
- Confirm out has to be out
- Not invoke A50 immediately
- Join EFTA as a starting point
- Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
-
Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!
I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.
As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.
2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.0 -
"I'm not tired or sick...doctors are journalists now..."
"I'm a very serene person"
What on Earth?0 -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hmrc-exchange-rates-for-2016-monthly
July 2016 rate 1.43 $; 1.3 €
Has the entire apparatus of government buried it's head in the sand ?0 -
now he is attacking the German press!!0
-
@paulwaugh: ICYMI. Read this Brexit voter's email to all MPs, apologising for their ballot.
And @theresecoffey zinger in reply https://t.co/gwafdylTe50 -
logical_song said:
... and come second in lots of places, maybe win 10MPs.</blockquoteSean_F said:
If that happened, then look to see UKIP .win 30% or so.BigIan said:
What about if every party, UKIP aside, put continued membership in their manifesto? Could get very interesting then!Innocent_Abroad said:
There won't be another referendum The next Tory leader will call a GE & put continued membership in the Tory manifesto. In the meantime the s.50 application will be put on hold.AlistairM said:Some thoughts following the referendum. I voted for David Cameron to become Tory leader when I was a member. I always had a high opinion of him until he tried to sell his renegotiation as a good deal. I lost all faith then. He was right to resign but we need a new leader quickly.
The complete lack of preparation for the possibility of a Brexit vote is completely shocking. It is clear that the vast majority of Government and Opposition did not want or expect Brexit. However, they should have prepared for what the next steps would have been. To have not done so is in my view a massive dereliction of duty.
I had always liked Boris but I think his performance since the result have been dire. He should've been straight onto the airwaves calming things and reassuring that plans are being put in place, nothing changes immediately but we're now working on the best solution. I don't have a vote now for Tory leader but I would go for Theresa May now if I did.
When there is a new PM they should do the following:
- Confirm out has to be out
- Not invoke A50 immediately
- Join EFTA as a starting point
- Make free trade deals with our friends in the world (Commonwealth + USA as a starting point) which can be introduced when we do leave the EU
-
Europe would hate this but we are within our rights to do this. Leave the EU and look out to the world!
I was a Leaver and was beginning to have #Bremorse having seen the markets go into full panic mode. However, having seem the EU reaction and having thought some more about the possibilities of making our own deals with other countries throughout the world I am much more positive. Also, the panic in the markets across the world seems massively overdone - are they really saying that the UK leaving the EU is going to have such a major impact that it causes an economic meltdown more than in 2008? Nothing has really changed (yet) so it seems to me now to be everyone getting the wobbles.
As for Labour - they have no choice but to split now.
2nd EU referendum? Not unless it is to ratify our approach to leaving the EU.
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The only justification is that he would be more easily able to pursue an about face and renege on all the promises the Leave camp made. However, even if we can get a grown up in charge, we still have 25+ Tory MPs who are head banging enough to be quite happy to burn Europe down if it 'frees' the UK - somehow they need to be dealt with. Perhaps about 40 Labour MPs could be persuaded to defect to the Tories...JacobD said:
With so much being at stake, can there be any justification (other than watching him fail) to putting Boris in charge?
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I was referring to the stock market and sterling- but I think now the 20% correction is going to be happen sooner.Richard_Tyndall said:
Tyson you very sensibly said a few days ago that there was no point even looking at the effects of Brexit overall for 6 months. We just won't know until we have enough data.tyson said:
No were not, we are angry because we said this all through the campaign. And in return we just had the smug scaremongering reply.MP_SE said:
No, not SO but there are plenty on here who seem delighted at the prospect of a UK recession.Fenster said:
I don't think SO is one of those! But on Twitter you get the sense that some on the left want Britain to fall to bits.MP_SE said:
Sadly some on PB would rather a recession than Brexit be a success.SouthamObserver said:Some good news - the FTSE 250 is sharply up this morning. Hopefully, the initial shit-storm is abating.
I'm confident it won't.
And the recession is coming to pass, and it is going to be worse than project fear spelt out. Our real economy is now grinding to a shuddering halt.....don't look at the ups and downs of the stock market (which is bad enough)- look at people and businesses spending money, banks lending money. I think you'll find we've hit a wall.
I am so annoyed because we can no more think that we can exist outside Europe, outside the common market than we could living without a vital organ.
I would suggest you stick to that rather than bigging up your own fears.
The real economy- you know that bit that employs people and pays tax- that part is already gone. When you have those quarterly revisions- and you get comments like...the weather had an impact, and growth was 1,3% instead of 1.4%....what kind of impact do you think this monumental clusterfuck is having? It's going to feed into those economic growth figures quarter after quarter. Britain will come out of this.....not as bad as the 2008 crash, but we are a much weaker economy now than then. And like always the poor will suffer.
BTW a house price crash is not good for the economy, well not ours which is driven by consumer debt
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