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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May 7% ahead of Johnson amongst CON voters in first leadership race poll
The detail of the YouGov CON leadership poll which has Johnson 7% behind amongst CON voters pic.twitter.com/sL1K6dQsSG
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TM4PM0
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Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.0 -
What we really need is a poll of Tory members0
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I thought Boris was a shoo in until this sense of panic and confusion descended on the political scene over the weekend and on Monday. At this moment in time, you can imagine why people would be more inclined to lean towards someone with a reputation for seriousness. As I mentioned on the previous thread, there's an unflappability about May that I can understand people might be drawn to at the moment, rather than a lot of waffle and noise from Johnson.0
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A poll of the electorate? Madness!TheScreamingEagles said:What we really need is a poll of Tory members
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Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?0
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It's a futile petition, but there's 3.8 million signatures, they cannot all be hacked ones.nunu said:0 -
You tend to get a mandate from the peopleLowlander said:Nicola Sturgeon taking forward a bill - including a second referendum - tomorrow in the Scottish Parliament.
Will give her full rights to back any course of action, including Indyref 2 to retain Scotland's membership. Greens and Labour will back. Liberals too possible. Tories will try to ammend to remove Independence option but will get voted down by SNP and Greens at least, possibly others.
Almost certain Nicola will get full mandate for second referendum.
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She's former Bank of England, I reckon she'll go down the route of the greater good for the economyTissue_Price said:Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?
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People still looking at polls? There's an old lady at the end of Brighton Pier rubbing her hands together. Legalised fraudsters.0
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From that it looks as though Johnson would be better off trying to become leader of UKIP0
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I would find a choice between May and Boris very difficult.
I think May would be a great steady the ship leader, but not a great campaigner. Whilst Boris would be unlikely to lose in 2020 unless events kill the story brand.
A tough one.0 -
Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!TheScreamingEagles said:TM4PM
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And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
I'd hazard a guess that she'd be an EFTA-ite. Quick solution, calm things down, win back some sovereignty, give ourselves breathing space to get some other trade deals in place and pursue further reform or alternative options at a later date. The small c conservative option.Tissue_Price said:Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?
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Does that weighted sample imply Con 34 Lab 35 LD 11 UKIP 20? (scaled down a bit for "others) ?0
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Given the mood of the Commons today, I can see why he is keeping silent. He might actually have had a rougher hearing than Corbyn.numbertwelve said:I thought Boris was a shoo in until this sense of panic and confusion descended on the political scene over the weekend and on Monday. At this moment in time, you can imagine why people would be more inclined to lean towards someone with a reputation for seriousness. As I mentioned on the previous thread, there's an unflappability about May that I can understand people might be drawn to at the moment, rather than a lot of waffle and noise from Johnson.
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Labour being ahead in the polls is like gold dust for Corbyn and his supporters. It would obviously be so much easier for his opponents if they were 10% behind.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
Been out today, did Boris really not show up at the House of Commons today?0
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Even up until 2 days before the referendum she was on the TV saying we need to reform free movement, even though she was backing Remain (although not enthusiastically). She also made that very strong speech on immigration at the Tory party conference, where she talked about communities being overwhelmed, wages pushed down, services stretched and said numbers from EU too high and serious reform needed to bring them down.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's former Bank of England, I reckon she'll go down the route of the greater good for the economyTissue_Price said:Really interested to see what Theresa's interpretation of Brexit is. Will she insist something is done on free movement?
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Was the poll before or after half the shadow cabinet resigned? *innocent face*No_Offence_Alan said:Does that weighted sample imply Con 34 Lab 35 LD 11 UKIP 20? (scaled down a bit for "others) ?
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FPT:
I definitely think May's absence for much of the campaign was tactical. I think the trouble for Leavers, is that none of their leading lights look like good leadership prospects for the country. Boris would be a total disaster as PM, for example. And I hardly think the country is crying out for Grayling, IDS, or Gove either.numbertwelve said:
I admit May seems like the best choice given where the country is at the moment. No matter what you think of her otherwise, she does give off an air of unflappability and seriousness which is exactly what we need at the moment. A steady hand on the tiller.The_Apocalypse said:I wouldn't believe any UK poll right now. They have been hilariously wrong on two massive occasions in the last year now. I would love May to be our next PM though - she's by far the best option out of an underwhelming bunch. Boris and Osborne shouldn't be anywhere near the Conservative leadership.
On the game, I called it regarding this England team months ago. Qualifiers and friendlies cannot be used as a measurement of this team - they simply don't have a tournament mentality in the way teams like Germany and Italy do. Even the Welsh have been mentally stronger this year than us FFS. Rooney and Kane were totally dire tonight, and Kane has been terrible throughout this entire tournament. Roy should have started Rashford.
Backed remain, but kept her head down (some might say tactically) and is widely considered eurosceptic. A fair compromise for the membership, I'd have thought.0 -
Would it be surprising if Tory members were more like UKIP supporters than Tory supporters?0
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Totally unrelated to anything much.
Danny Baker's tweets throughout this evening are like the combined voice of millions of England fans. Gems.
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Boris is the new comical Ali
"Your pensions are safe, the markets are stable, the pound is stable". For effect he should have spoken in a trading room with the red screens behind him.0 -
Very early days yet, Boris started slowly when the referendum headed up too. And I've heard alot of contradictory advice on the betting strat for Tory leader. My book quite frankly is a mess.
~ £80 underwater and holding for the moment.
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Ignore the polls/experts.0
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I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.RobD said:
Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!TheScreamingEagles said:TM4PM
He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.
Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.0 -
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
Not necessarily. People were prepared to sit tight when it looked like Labour was going to lose whatever. If it looks as if they might have a chance to win...AndyJS said:
Labour being ahead in the polls is like gold dust for Corbyn and his supporters. It would obviously be so much easier for his opponents if they were 10% behind.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
I should VM them in advanceTheScreamingEagles said:
I will consult with JohnO before I cast my vote.RobD said:
Don't vote Boris, even though you want him to squirm!TheScreamingEagles said:TM4PM
He and Tissue Price are the only PBers who can influence me on this.
Though there are some 'Tories' who can influence me, I'll vote against whomever they are backing.
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Not sure how much use this particular poll is, except perhaps as a guide for MPs as to general electability. But I think MPs will use their own judgement, not polls, for that - this is a very volatile time, and public opinion can switch fast.
Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.
But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.0 -
He did not. It was, er, noted by participants.CopperSulphate said:Been out today, did Boris really not show up at the House of Commons today?
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I'll be voting for May if it's her vs Boris a final two.0
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AmenNickPalmer said:May's edge is the same that Merkel had (and to some extent still has) she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
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Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.0 -
I'm in a similar position - have had to pivot that particular book so many times. For my book's sake, I'm hoping Rudd, Clark and Jesse Norman stand.Pulpstar said:Very early days yet, Boris started slowly when the referendum headed up too. And I've heard alot of contradictory advice on the betting strat for Tory leader. My book quite frankly is a mess.
~ £80 underwater and holding for the moment.
In reality, I'm expecting none of them too.0 -
I'd love it to be Boris because he has a lot of responsibility for this mess and I'd like to see him squirm then crash and burn.
It'll be May though.0 -
Slightly random thought: Our constitution seems to be poorly set up to handle extended leadership campaigns that come with democratic party institutions. Moments where we most need leadership are also moments where at least one major party is liable to be stuck with a lame duck or interim leader.0
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You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.0 -
I'll be voting for Boris ofc. Where do I sign up?0
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Whichever side won the charlatans would have won. Both are as bad as each other. They are politicians after all.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.0 -
Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.0
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Too late. We're not complete idiots.murali_s said:I'll be voting for Boris ofc. Where do I sign up?
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From what my friend at the FCO said earlier tonight, the shitstorm has not even begun.blackburn63 said:
You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.0 -
Would David Cameron accepted a seat in cabinet under a new PM?Richard_Nabavi said:Not sure how much use this particular poll is, except perhaps as a guide for MPs as to general electability. But I think MPs will use their own judgement, not polls, for that - this is a very volatile time, and public opinion can switch fast.
Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.
But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.0 -
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A huge LOL!!!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
You're a Leaver too, aren't you? Another straw in the wind.MaxPB said:I'll be voting for May if it's her vs Boris a final two.
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Evening Standard 27th June 2016
" Special relationship will stay strong despite EU votes result.
Hillary Clinton has insisted that Americas special relationship with Britain will remain despite vote to leave EU. The presidential hopeful reconfirmed
"The common interests and values " of the two nations is a corner stone of American foreign policy.
Oh wait a minute.... We're we not meant to be at the back of the queue ?0 -
It should be May because she stands the best chance of getting us out of this clusterfuck
Boris does need to squirm, so May needs to offer him a big job, maybe even chancellor, so he gets to explain why there is no £350m a week for the NHS. Every week.
He could refuse, but of course that would also be heavily publicised0 -
Your friend at the FCO?foxinsoxuk said:
From what my friend at the FCO said earlier tonight, the shitstorm has not even begun.blackburn63 said:
You lot need to make your minds up it seems, one says the charlatans won, the other that we're tired of them.foxinsoxuk said:
On the contrary charlatans are clearly popular, probably more popular than ever. They won a referenum just a few days ago.blackburn63 said:
What evidence do you have that people are tiring of charlatans? Name the charlatans.NickPalmer said:And Labour slightly ahead in the same poll...
I think that Boris has done himself serious harm in recent days - too many people regard him with amused contempt. His Achilles heel is that he just doesn't think things through, so people attach themselves to him because of the charisma and end up disappointed. May's edge is the same that Merkel had and to dsome extent still has - she's boring and solid at a time when people are getting tired of charlatans.
Last week the country told us exactly what they're tired of = being hectored and patronised.
Well we were talking of charlatans.....
You still saying the population will fall due to mass emigration?
You're an emotional wreck, have a few days off.0 -
It is - lolY0kel said:Totally unrelated to anything much.
Danny Baker's tweets throughout this evening are like the combined voice of millions of England fans. Gems.
Like he says,hope wembley empty for next Qualifiers.0 -
I doubt it.annak said:
Would David Cameron accepted a seat in cabinet under a new PM?Richard_Nabavi said:Not sure how much use this particular poll is, except perhaps as a guide for MPs as to general electability. But I think MPs will use their own judgement, not polls, for that - this is a very volatile time, and public opinion can switch fast.
Even allowing for that, this is not an FPTP contest with 10 candidates. It cannot be repeated too often that this is initially an MP selection process which will end up with just two candidates presented to party members. As things stand, it's hard to see those two candidates being anyone other than Boris and Theresa. So the poll we need is one which is (a) based on a forced choice of those two, (b) of Conservative Party members, not voters or the general public, and (c) Is not a voodoo (AKA ConservativeHome) poll.
But yes, Theresa May has a very good chance, and should either be favourite, or on similar odds to Boris.
Edit: Perhaps a more interesting question is whether Osborne would.0 -
Gutted!! I am a part time PB Tory.Tissue_Price said:
Too late. We're not complete idiots.murali_s said:I'll be voting for Boris ofc. Where do I sign up?
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Aren't we supposed to lay the early favourite in Tory leadership contests?0
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There is gonna be so much comedy in tonight's result.
https://twitter.com/Just_Greig/status/7475407574819307530 -
May leads with Tories, Labour voters and LDs, Boris with UKIP voters. She has 8 times Boris' support with Remainers, and over half of his support with Leave voters. She is clearly the best candidate to unite the country now0
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May's "eurosceptic" support for Remain should rule her out.0
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It's been my aim all along.MP_SE said:Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.
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Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.0 -
So Boris is our next PM and negotiates membership of the EEA - his preferred option - which means we're out of the EU but still have lots of Poles, Latvians etc coming and going. Given that's not what the closet, and no so closet racists who voted Leave wanted, how long do you think he'll last?0
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I first suspected Leave was going to win on Thursday night when he mentioned that private exit poll showing Leave in the lead.Mortimer said:Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.
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It is the least crap of a lot of crap choices.MP_SE said:Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.
Or put in gameshow format:
Behind one door is a car, one a goat and one a bicycle.
You open one door and win the car
Monty Hall asks if you want to switch to one of the other doors.
You do.
That is what happened last week.
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Jus seen the vid of Corbyn on the bus. Doesn't look like a man who is going anywhere.0
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I first suspected it when the returning officer for the Newcastle count was about to ball whilst reading the result, she knew the closeness meant it must be all over.DanSmith said:
I first suspected Leave was going to win on Thursday night when he mentioned that private exit poll showing Leave in the lead.Mortimer said:Tom Newton Dunn is a seriously impressive comentator. I spent my weekend with a number of metropolitan remainers - they all laughed at me when I said how good the Sun's political judgement was. Almost sneered.
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Much is being made of how we should all accept that out won but we do not know what Leavers want. If the referendum had had 5 choices
Remain
EEA
Swiss model
Canadian model
WTO
then Remain would almost certainly have won.0 -
If you flood the market with immigrants putting the native born out of a job and leaving the youth to kick their heels so you can pay cheaper wages and not train youngsters, the country suffers
England 1 vs Iceland 20 -
FPT there was some discussion whether Boris would even make final two, given how MPs currently regard him.
I'm trying to see things from the PoV of a Remainer MP. (Bear in mind that some of these folk were not strong Remainers but were "persuaded" by government, by whatever means, to back the cause. But we can at least assume they range from moderately eurosceptic to eurolukewarm to the odd europhile.)
Is there any reason at all for them to opt for Boris when he has done so much damage to their party and, as they would see it, to the country/economy, and carries the obvious risks? I can think of three.
Firstly Boris is not a headbanging eurosceptic, if he can be described as a eurosceptic at all. His rough vision of Britain's future place in Europe is not far removed from what many Remain MPs would like to aim for given the current situation.
Secondly, there are bad optics if the leader comes from a pro-Remain background and carries out a "backdoor remain". Essentially, a leaver has a "right to compromise on behalf of the 48%" that a remainer does not. (Electorally the Tories can afford to lose many of the 48% without great bloodbath - many of them are generally non-voters, and those in Labour heartlands are essentially irrelevant to Tory strategy. Moreover many of those 48% were people who weighed up the decision and only opted for it narrowly, so a compromise would only cost a certain portion of them. But it is still healthier for that fraction to minimised.)
Thirdly, they may support Boris - not least for self-preservation instincts - if they see he has electoral appeal. For instance, he won twice in the difficult territory of London. He was deemed to have performed well in the Leave campaign and although he can't personally claim 17 million people voted for him, it seems likely that fewer nationwide would have have backed Brexit without him.
Weighed against the first of these reasons is that Boris is not a "details guy" so his capacity to extract a European position of his desire is in question. (In contrast to Brown though, he is good at delegating.) Weighed against the second, is that for a Leaver to backtrack may be seen as a betrayal. Weighed against the third, Boris would likely cause deep divisions in the Tory party (damaging electoral appeal and making retaining your seat harder). It seems likely his appointment would add momentum to the Scottish independence drive. He also carries a very serious risk of implosion, from all manner of sources: personal life, a bumbling approach to clarity (or indeed, truth), not someone who gives an impression of a "safe pair of hands " when crisis management skills are paramount...
Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
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Weird market on betfair. You can back Osborne at 85 to be PM after Cameron, and lay him at 36 to be next Tory leader. What's the scenario?0
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First honest thing Osborne has said in agesTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The car was a Lada.foxinsoxuk said:
It is the least crap of a lot of crap choices.MP_SE said:Does anyone here object to EEA+EFTA?
Personally I prefer May to Boris and EEA+EFTA to a bespoke deal.
Or put in gameshow format:
Behind one door is a car, one a goat and one a bicycle.
You open one door and win the car
Monty Hall asks if you want to switch to one of the other doors.
You do.
That is what happened last week.0 -
There's all sorts of quasi-arbs between the two markets if you've got the cash. I can't see a realistic scenario where they don't settle as the same.alex. said:Weird market on betfair. You can back Osborne at 85 to be PM after Cameron, and lay him at 36 to be next Tory leader. What's the scenario?
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Apparently someone called Nic Dakin has resigned from the Labour front bench.
No, I hadn't either.0 -
I don't think we know enough yet to judge where this is going.
1. We need to hear (as a matter of urgency) exactly what Brexit means and looks like with Boris and Gove.
2. We need to be convinced that Boris is genuinely serious about all of this. That it wasn't just a feud with a fellow Etonian that out of control. That he really, really is convinced about the merits of Brexit and wants to see this through to the end.
3. We need to know what Theresa thinks... The woman has basically kept her council for weeks and weeks, What is her vision of Brexit?0 -
The bus had broken down?Pulpstar said:Jus seen the vid of Corbyn on the bus. Doesn't look like a man who is going anywhere.
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Boris has won two mayoral elections in Labour-leaning London, and has just won a national referendum.
What's not to like?0 -
If it's May vs Corbyn and she's upfront on what her credible Brexit strategy is I may cast a once in a lifetime Conservative vote in an Autumn election. Lots and lots of variables between now and then but....0
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Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.MyBurningEars said:Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.0 -
You could tell the man was finished from how he looked when he sat next to Cameron in HoC today. Night of the living dead....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Seems the Sun headline is
Dumbs gone to Iceland.0 -
Re thread header
Any other party just has to say despite electing someone even remotely acceptable to the public Labour are always now just a heartbeat away from electing the same as JC
Next time though they could be in government when they do so.....
Tory landslide0 -
Can't argue with that logic at all. But I think it is a big if. If I were May, I'd be more worried about a more charismatic insurgent stop Boris candidate at this stage.Tissue_Price said:
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.MyBurningEars said:Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.0 -
Watching and listening to Angela Eagle today was an uncomfortable experience because she was genuinely upset at what was going on.0
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On the other hand, ITV News had a vox-pop from Mansfield tonight where all Leave voters interviewed were still stood by their choice, anger at other people's refusal to accept the result, and putting the blame for the pound falling on our politicians "talking the economy down".RealBritain said:Astonishing reversal of mood tonight in the comments sections of the popular press, as other people have pointed out elsewhere tonight. The confident anti-EU mood has vanished.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3661362/Immigration-NOT-reason-people-voted-leave-insists-Boris-Brexit-campaigner-suggests-Osborne-Foreign-Secretary-dream-ticket-replace-David-Cameron.html
I think a second referendum may even happen.0 -
There surely must be some members who start going wobbly. They can't all be automatons.GIN1138 said:I don't think we know enough yet to judge where this is going.
1. We need to hear (as a matter of urgency) exactly what Brexit means and looks like with Boris and Gove.
2. We need to be convinced that Boris is genuinely serious about all of this. That it wasn't just a feud with a fellow Etonian that out of control. That he really, really is convinced about the merits of Brexit and wants to see this through to the end.
3. We need to know what Theresa thinks... The woman has basically kept her council for weeks and weeks, What is her vision of Brexit?
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Perhaps the only thing preventing mass defections/splits is that MPs in both parties want to play a part in the respective leadership elections.0
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EEA+ EFTA implies free movement. It would be a betrayal of the WWC voters for Brexit (though I personally wouldn't be unhappy about it). I think it would be better to begin by unilaterally removing tariffs under WTO rules, and simultaneously apply restrictions on *new* migrants while preserving rights of existing migrants, and seek similar arrangements with former EU partners wrt their immigrants from UK.0
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I don't think it will be decided on Leave v Remain - that decision has been taken - but on credibility in sorting out the mess. Theresa May clearly has the advantage of being competent, reliable and solid, Boris has the advantage of having seized the political initiative which gives him a quasi-mandate. But I think his advantage in that respect has a limited lifetime and could go into reverse.Tissue_Price said:
Iain Dale said yesterday that he had enough MPs to make the ballot [not 100% clear if that meant the final two, mind]. With Gove's support that's plausible; all the more so if Osborne might back him.MyBurningEars said:Overall I can see Boris will have some grounds for support among MPs. But why is he such a heavy betting favourite?
If it's a final two of Boris v Theresa I'd currently be 1.75 Boris, 2.33 Theresa. But Theresa can win if she converts convincingly to Brexit. I reckon the members voted 70-30 or so for Out.0 -
A choice between a steady personality, who admittedly doesn't have anything very compelling going for her and Comical Ali.0
