I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA. er in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Actually Lord Ashcrofts polling shows immigration is number two issue number one was policies should be made here.
But one of those policies that should be made here is immigration Basically that is what Hannan has been saying for years, he doesn't necessarily want immigration reduced, he just wants to British people to be in charge of it, a view with which I personally have much sympathy (so that we can chuck out various undesirables).
But that was most definitely not the prospectus on which you won the referendum.
Would Leave have won saying " If we win we be joining another trading bloc which will still allow Freedom of Movement from the EU including Turkey (as they will be joining imminently as we were told) and still mean we will be contributing to the EU budget"?
What you seem to be missing is that although Vote Leave were the Official Leave Campaign, and the Official Leave Campaign released many policy pledges, and it is highly likely that many of those who voted Leave did so because they wanted those policy pledges enacted (the policy pledges of the Official Leave Campaign), actually at 10pm on June 23rd, the Official Leave Campaign disappeared, and became a non-Official Leave Campaign.
And it became up to the government, etc, etc, blah, blah..
I would be interested to know whether Conservative Leavers on here trust Johnson or May to actually deliver Brexit. Obviously they will say they will but are you happy with those assurances or would you prefer a leader who is more ideologically committed to Leave.
I won't be happy until Article 50 is triggered. It's pretty clear how unwilling most of the Establishment/media are to accept the will of the people. The last few days reminded me of the BBC over Hutton - and that's not a good thing.
I trust Gove completely.
Once the denial/anger phase is over - I'm a little anxious about the bargaining mindset. I don't believe in my head that anyone from Leave would be sucked in by that siren call. After 3 months of taking every insult going, they're not going to backtrack now.
I read Boris' article and took it as a pitch for PM, soothing words, healing wounds, listen to concerns da-de-da. It's typical of what every new winner says.
I'm very ambivalent about May - I really don't like her authoritarian streak, nor her endless side swapping for careerist reasons. She's a tough lady though and has the gravitas. Boris needs to show me he can be serious.
The Leave campaign are quite happy to keep Article 50 in the long grass, possibly for ever.
Not forever.the pressure to declare is too high and they'd be eaten alive if they don't at some point. Only a new offer from the eu could prevent it being declared - conspiracy would be that's why we want to wait to declare, to get one - but they have for once been very clear and self interest would mean it should be belied that there won't be. Add to that as the people's will has been shown, realistically only the people's will being shown to change is needed to not declare after all. And any second ref would probably be lost. Either half s million switchers, much higher turnout for remain but not for leave and Scotland turning out again for remain, none of which is likely, is needed.
Good day.
Won't take much to change the 'people's will', 1.9% of the total. I suspect that will be the case within a few weeks. Good point about Scotland though, they might vote Leave if a new referendum was held now.
No a second referendum would get a result like the Winchester by-election 1997.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
The WWC were always going to be the cannon fodder in the referendum, stoke them up over immigration to get the win then row back and ignore them the moment you have got what you want. Has Matthew Elliot's odious paw prints all over it.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
I was wondering whether the scheme was still open.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
Yes, let's plunge the country into an even deeper crisis than it is already in.
I apologise if some one has already made this observation... If a "get back in the EU" party set itself up with a single objective, to re-enter the EU, and once that has been achieved recall a general election.
No. For the same reason as UKIP struggles to get elected. People will keep asking them what their defense and education policy is when they really don't have one or care about it. It also needs 330+ candidate MPs that people would trust to vote to give up their job after rejoining. Also rejoining would probably take 5-6 years.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
I was wondering whether the scheme was still open.
It is and it's probably Corbyn's biggest weakness.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
It's all magic mushroom politics - TeamCorbyn made it very plain that they're not going down without a serious fight.
I can't believe we're back to where we were last year!
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
I'm willing to accept a peerage to become Shadow Leader of the Lords.
As the top female contender for the Labour leadership, I'm surprised that HenryG's pick Lisa Nandy hasn't yet resigned from the Shadow Cabinet or is she playing some clever tactical game, the precise intricacies of which have escaped me?
Would Leave have won saying " If we win we be joining another trading bloc which will still allow Freedom of Movement from the EU including Turkey (as they will be joining imminently as we were told) and still mean we will be contributing to the EU budget"?
You appear to be still struggling with the concept that different people in Leave have different views, in a rather similar way as do, to take an example at random, the Labour Front Bench.
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Actually Lord Ashcrofts polling shows immigration is number two issue number one was policies should be made here.
I just love the way Leavers are now trying to pretend it wasn't immigration that won it. Priceless, just about every angry Leaver interviewed said it was immigration and no amount of Lord Ashcroft's "polling" is going to convince people otherwise.
It is interesting that as Johnson and other Conservatives are trying to at least qualify their promises on immigration, a whole swathe of Labour figures are criticising Corbyn for his unequivocal backing for uncontrolled EU migration, indeed his failure even to recognise it as a problem. I think that is more than a tactical stance and reflects genuine if belated recognition by Labour campaigners at the salience of the issue and that those views cannot be ignored. If Corbyn does fall, that could amount to quite a shift in political outlook.
It seems to me that the tenacity with which the Hard Left are clinging on to Jezza, rather than their policy positions, indicates they think he has a large £3er personal vote, rather than people really want the policies. Otherwise, why not ditch him and put up someone on the left who can actually make a speech or run a campaign?
As the top female contender for the Labour leadership, I'm surprised that HenryG's pick Lisa Nandy hasn't yet resigned from the Shadow Cabinet or is she playing some clever tactical game, the precise intricacies of which have escaped me?
She is rumoured to be part of the delegation visiting Corbyn today
Cameron has an opportunity to rescue some of his reputation and his legacy. He could have a reshuffle today to oust Ozzy and empower some of the Brexiters. Yes - I know. He'd more likely cartwheel naked down Whitehall. But making Gove Deputy PM or Chancellor and giving Boris a chief negotiator role or some such would help. He should at least very publically tell all the Project Teddy In The Corner mob to STFU. It's still his job as PM to do the right thing for the country and all this infantile backtracking the day after a political revolution is NOT helping either country or any of the protagonists' own reputations.
Cameron wont do anything to help Boris, and why should he.
He appears to be concerned about his legal, not behaving like a petulant tit and doing what is best for his country in the new circumstances would probably help his place in history immeasurably.
You appear to be still struggling with the concept that different people in Leave have different views
And you appear to be struggling with the concept that 17m people thought they were voting for something and will be aggrieved to find out they were lied to by your team
As the top female contender for the Labour leadership, I'm surprised that HenryG's pick Lisa Nandy hasn't yet resigned from the Shadow Cabinet or is she playing some clever tactical game, the precise intricacies of which have escaped me?
Jeremy will resign before Nandy or McDonnell. They'd love for Corbyn to stay but if he is forced out then they'll be ready for a continuation of the project.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
I was wondering whether the scheme was still open.
It is and it's probably Corbyn's biggest weakness.
It seems to me that the tenacity with which the Hard Left are clinging on to Jezza, rather than their policy positions, indicates they think he has a large £3er personal vote, rather than people really want the policies. Otherwise, why not ditch him and put up someone on the left who can actually make a speech or run a campaign?
Given that the Compliance Unit didn't manage to weed out many hard-Left/mischief makers last time - perhaps they're relying on more of the same, provided they vote for Jezza?
The current polls are showing Tories only about a couple points ahead Labour. Suspect they are wrong again and Rods prediction swing back from local elections mean Tories are 10% ahead are correct. 40% Tory, 30% Labour is my prediction. Leading to a 50-60 seat majority.
Under FPTP a 10% lead should lead to a massive majority (around 100) - unless something else intervenes such as a surprise (and regionally concentrated) surge by UKIP or the LibDems
I would be interested to know whether Conservative Leavers on here trust Johnson or May to actually deliver Brexit. Obviously they will say they will but are you happy with those assurances or would you prefer a leader who is more ideologically committed to Leave.
I won't be happy until Article 50 is triggered. It's pretty clear how unwilling most of the Establishment/media are to accept the will of the people. The last few days reminded me of the BBC over Hutton - and that's not a good thing.
I trust Gove completely.
Once the denial/anger phase is over - I'm a little anxious about the bargaining mindset. I don't believe in my head that anyone from Leave would be sucked in by that siren call. After 3 months of taking every insult going, they're not going to backtrack now.
I read Boris' article and took it as a pitch for PM, soothing words, healing wounds, listen to concerns da-de-da. It's typical of what every new winner says.
I'm very ambivalent about May - I really don't like her authoritarian streak, nor her endless side swapping for careerist reasons. She's a tough lady though and has the gravitas. Boris needs to show me he can be serious.
I doubt any of the lead Tory leavers ever intended to exit the single market and end FoM. They simply let Farage and his oppos whip up the anti-immigration vote to get the win.
In hindsight this whole referendum will come to be seen as the most breathtakingly cynical con by, you guessed it, the elite.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
It's all magic mushroom politics - TeamCorbyn made it very plain that they're not going down without a serious fight.
I can't believe we're back to where we were last year!
How Remain must have longed for Corbyn to come out for Leave, that would have won it for them, but JC played it beautifully and I thank him for that.
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
It's all magic mushroom politics - TeamCorbyn made it very plain that they're not going down without a serious fight.
I can't believe we're back to where we were last year!
I can. Last year I actually voted for Kendall on the basis that the Labour party needed someone middle of the road for a chance to win.
This time I will happily and enthusiastically vote for TeamCorbyn knowing that they will win in the hope that another of the Parliamentary Labour party will realise the game is up and form a new party....
The new appointments include: Shadow foreign secretary - Emily Thornberry Shadow health secretary - Diane Abbott Shadow education secretary - Pat Glass Shadow transport secretary - Andy McDonald Shadow defence secretary - Clive Lewis Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury - Rebecca Long-Bailey Shadow international development secretary - Kate Osamor Shadow environment food and rural affairs secretary - Rachel Maskell Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs - Cat Smith Shadow Northern Ireland secretary - Dave Anderson
It seems to me that the tenacity with which the Hard Left are clinging on to Jezza, rather than their policy positions, indicates they think he has a large £3er personal vote, rather than people really want the policies. Otherwise, why not ditch him and put up someone on the left who can actually make a speech or run a campaign?
It seems to me that the tenacity with which the Hard Left are clinging on to Jezza, rather than their policy positions, indicates they think he has a large £3er personal vote, rather than people really want the policies. Otherwise, why not ditch him and put up someone on the left who can actually make a speech or run a campaign?
They would no doubt do so if the threshold for MPs nominations had been reduced to 5% of the PLP, as they are seeking in future rule changes. Without that, the Corbynites have to cling on to Corbyn because no-one else from the hard left would ever be able to get on the ballot.
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
It's all magic mushroom politics - TeamCorbyn made it very plain that they're not going down without a serious fight.
I can't believe we're back to where we were last year!
I can. Last year I actually voted for Kendall on the basis that the Labour party needed someone middle of the road for a chance to win.
This time I will happily and enthusiastically vote for TeamCorbyn knowing that they will win in the hope that another of the Parliamentary Labour party will realise the game is up and form a new party....
I voted Corbyn and Angela Eagles. I thought Angela would make a good Dept Leader. Has either Eagles resigned?
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
The WWC were always going to be the cannon fodder in the referendum, stoke them up over immigration to get the win then row back and ignore them the moment you have got what you want. Has Matthew Elliot's odious paw prints all over it.
People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc
Jack Blanchard @Jack_Blanchard_ Team Corbyn digging in. Source says they're "ready" for leadership contest and will launch new £3 membership drive to boost support
Genius!
£3 to destroy the Labour Party once and for all. I'm in....
Yes, let's plunge the country into an even deeper crisis than it is already in.
You must remember that some people gain from Brexit, while others have nothing to lose. If you are well-off, own your home outright, retired or choose not to work then you are going to be absolutely fine and can look on all of this as one great big laugh, if you are so inclined.
UKIP ain't gonna struggle soon what with the"No change" policy being advocated by Boris
If they have any sense (big if I know) they will ditch Farage, put Woolfe in the top job, and use the opportunity to move to a clear Old Labour economy platform, and then reel in the northern seats by the truck full.
If someone has to tell the country that it can't have immigration controls and access to the single market, it is best done by a Leave leader. He or she will then have to do some real leading rather than following. May would be most unwise to attempt it.
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
Was, for different reasons, trawling through pre-vote posts and came across this very prescient one from Bob Sykes on June 14.
"I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.”
Para 3 hasn’t yet come to pass, at least so far as the last clause is concerned, of course, but I think Mr S should be congratulated.
The new appointments include: Shadow foreign secretary - Emily Thornberry Shadow health secretary - Diane Abbott Shadow education secretary - Pat Glass Shadow transport secretary - Andy McDonald Shadow defence secretary - Clive Lewis Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury - Rebecca Long-Bailey Shadow international development secretary - Kate Osamor Shadow environment food and rural affairs secretary - Rachel Maskell Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs - Cat Smith Shadow Northern Ireland secretary - Dave Anderson
Clive Lewis is another anti-Trident chap isn't he?
I can't recall how many Jezza needs. Is it 12 or 16 to cover the front bench briefs?
Then there is the internal renegotiation. Where all going to be shafted by Brexit in the short and medium term. The battle is for the long term. Now that the referendum is over and the useful idiots of the northern and welsh WWC have served their purpose the normal power structures ( elites and parliament ) will reassert themselves. The new dialectic will be between Tory, prosperous and southern leave areas and Remainia. The short and medium term is the easiest bit. The cuts necessitated by Leave can simply be concentrated on the northern WWC areas as the previous customers were. Scotland will punch above it's weight under Sturgeon. It's how the southern Leavers and Remainia reach synthesis that's key. I don't know how yet but it won't be pretty for the northern WWC who've suicide bombed our place in Europe.
Those wwc voters though can now guarantee UKIP a quarter of the vote and UKIP will be focused almost entirely on an anti immigration platform
Will UKIP exist in 2020?
A backstory during the referendum campaign was intense faction fighting within UKIP. I think Suzanne Evans was sacked 3 times.
They will if the Tory Leavers ditch the commitment to end FoM.
It seems to me that the tenacity with which the Hard Left are clinging on to Jezza, rather than their policy positions, indicates they think he has a large £3er personal vote, rather than people really want the policies. Otherwise, why not ditch him and put up someone on the left who can actually make a speech or run a campaign?
35 nominations from PLP.
Plus plotters plan is to bypass the membership with an unspecified unity candidate
I've been appointed Shadow Minister of State in the Department of Social Affairs and Citizenship, taking over from Ben Swain after his resignation earlier.
[I'm assuming that is a joke...there is a non-zero probability that it is not]
If someone has to tell the country that it can't have immigration controls and access to the single market, it is best done by a Leave leader. He or she will then have to do some real leading rather than following. May would be most unwise to attempt it.
Was, for different reasons, trawling through pre-vote posts and came across this very prescient one from Bob Sykes on June 14.
"I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.”
Para 3 hasn’t yet come to pass, at least so far as the last clause is concerned, of course, but I think Mr S should be congratulated.
It was a good guess, but wrong in its basic premise. Cameron didn't hang on.
The new appointments include: Shadow foreign secretary - Emily Thornberry Shadow health secretary - Diane Abbott Shadow education secretary - Pat Glass Shadow transport secretary - Andy McDonald Shadow defence secretary - Clive Lewis Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury - Rebecca Long-Bailey Shadow international development secretary - Kate Osamor Shadow environment food and rural affairs secretary - Rachel Maskell Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs - Cat Smith Shadow Northern Ireland secretary - Dave Anderson
With the appointment of Pat Glass and the promotions for Emily Thornberry and Diane Abbot Corbyn is showing that he "gets it", though quite what that "it" is is another thing entirely.
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
Had the shadow cabinet not resigned yesterday, I was going to do a thread along those lines.
Headlined 'June 23rd might be Leave's Cannae, they may have won the battle but will they lose the war'
I had actually predicted what Boris had written in his column.
Yes, as I said last night on PB, went to bed more optimistic that this isn't going to actually happen.
It will become so clear that the economic cost is too high that we'll find a classic British fudge.
What a mess!
I said several times in the lead up to the referendum that whatever the result we will never leave the EU and although a Leaver myself, I stick by that. We will have to wait and see what kind of fudge emerges ....... treacle, chocolate or my favourite, vanilla. However for this to happen we need far more support from our friends in Europe to oppose the dreadful unelected Juncker and others who would have us out tomorrow if it was in their power. These friends, and we do have some, need to take account of the fact that it was the ordinary people of the UK who voted in their millions for us to leave, NOT the politicians, a large majority of whom were Remainers. For us to vote thus in such numbers, they really need to ask themselves why and what might have persuaded us to vote otherwise. It shouldn't prove impossible to arrive at sensible solutions if there is a real will to succeed.
I am a Leave supporter and I agree that immigration control was a major issue in the campaign. However, now Brexit is going to happen and the country is divided there will need to be a compromise. I don't see EEA membership as an option - the rules on freedom of movement and adoption of too much EU law will be unacceptable to the Leave campaign. However, the EU are going to want something in return for a FTA.
So how do Leavers (and others) feel about (a) a UK-EU FTA (b) some block payment to the EU in return as with the Swiss (c) an agreement that any EU citizen can enter and work in the UK providing they have a job offer in advance, but that they do not gain permanent residency rights nor are they eligible for any benefits (as there is no longer a concept of EU citizenship and shared rights). Basically, EU citizens would have an unlimited period temporary work visa on demand, and the same for UK citizens in the EU, but if they want permanent residency they have to apply as usual. I think this would reduce immigration from the EU significantly - many of the Eastern European immigrants just rock up and look for low skilled work and will not be able or prepared to get a job offer in advance, and the lack of long term residency will be a limiter.
Is it enough of a win for the immigration-control leavers and would it give the EU enough of a win to agree to an FTA, which frankly they are going to have to do at some stage, whether now or in the future?
Actually Lord Ashcrofts polling shows immigration is number two issue number one was policies should be made here.
I just love the way Leavers are now trying to pretend it wasn't immigration that won it. Priceless, just about every angry Leaver interviewed said it was immigration and no amount of Lord Ashcroft's "polling" is going to convince people otherwise.
They can claim whatever they want. There was leave and remain campaigns. They both put forward their positions. But the question wasnt whether or not you agree with either side, the question was to leave or remain in the EU.
You can leave the EU. If we leave the EU, it is utterly essential that we remain in the single market. Remaining in the single market will not make one jot of difference to free movement, and it wont even remotely bother industry.
Good luck explaining that to the WWC at the next election. It was a con, we all know it was a con. As Philip Hammond said last night on TV Leave won by making contradictory promises and now they don't know what to do next.
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
Don't worry, Corbyn's going nowhere. You'll get to see him lead Labour to catastrophic defeat.
Was, for different reasons, trawling through pre-vote posts and came across this very prescient one from Bob Sykes on June 14.
"I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.”
Para 3 hasn’t yet come to pass, at least so far as the last clause is concerned, of course, but I think Mr S should be congratulated.
It was a good guess, but wrong in its basic premise. Cameron didn't hang on.
Maybe Corbyn's plan was all along to put moderates in his cabinet then wait for them to resign and replace with the left wing. I am assuming the cabinet is more left wing than it was before...
I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
The MPs don't want him.
The membership don't want him.
The only thing that gives him a chance is the £3ers and there's no reason why with decent organisation (lacking in the Labour party for a while I'll admit) that can't be overcome. A Labour leadership election is now quite unique in politics in that you can change the composition of the electorate pretty easily...
BTW, I saw a few people stating that the EU was going to announce the formation of an EU army on the 24th. Was this announcement lost in the post Brexit froth?
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
Don't worry, Corbyn's going nowhere. You'll get to see him lead Labour to catastrophic defeat.
Corbyn's almost the last decent thing about Labour apart from the vast majority of members who voted him in. I'd love to see him ousted because I have a congenital hatred for the Labour Party and would rejoice in its demise.
People keep assuming there will be no blowback for the Tories if this happens. If free movement of people continues the Tories can wave goodbye to seats like S Thanet, Thurrock, Castle Point, Cleethorpes, Boston, Gt Yarmouth etc
Those South East/London former LD seats must be risky in the event of an election.
I'm a betting man and I'd prefer to go off of hard information rather than what people wish might be the case. Last time I checked he had a big mandate, I accept things may have changed though.
I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
So do you think that the EU will allow us the "perfect world" of not being a member of the EU, paying nothing in, having closed borders yet have access to the free market? The EU will try to make this divorce as difficult as possible so to discourage other countries from having referendums.
I'm a betting man and I'd prefer to go off of hard information rather than what people wish might be the case. Last time I checked he had a big mandate, I accept things may have changed though.
He didn't win a majority of the party membership at peak Corbyn, do you think his popularity has increased since then? Seems unlikely to me.
I think we have to accept a small but finite chance that politicians have been talking to each other and actually know a little more about what is happening and what is possible than we do.
You'd have thought so, but I'm sceptical at the moment.
Would Leave have won saying " If we win we be joining another trading bloc which will still allow Freedom of Movement from the EU including Turkey (as they will be joining imminently as we were told) and still mean we will be contributing to the EU budget"?
You appear to be still struggling with the concept that different people in Leave have different views, in a rather similar way as do, to take an example at random, the Labour Front Bench.
As Leavers were so fond of telling us during the referendum we are able to kick the b*stards out in A GE if they lie, what course of action do we have when it becomes evident that Leave won on a pack of lies?
By that logic there should be a second referendum once the deal is on the table if it differs significantly from what appeared to be on offer when we voted.
Was, for different reasons, trawling through pre-vote posts and came across this very prescient one from Bob Sykes on June 14.
"I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.”
Para 3 hasn’t yet come to pass, at least so far as the last clause is concerned, of course, but I think Mr S should be congratulated.
It was a good guess, but wrong in its basic premise. Cameron didn't hang on.
He’s said he’s going to resign, but he hasn’t yet. And he’s got form for saying one thing and doing another.
From Guido (Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
Has any political leader ever not quit after a dozen resignations in one day?
Has any political leader elected by an overwhelming majority ever been kicked out 9 months later by a group not representative of those tat elected him.?
I can fully understand why members who still retain confidence - or a belief in internal democracy - are well tee'd off.
TBH, I can't get my head around the conflicts within Labour any more.
MPs in Northern seats are still preaching More Europe or hoping the problem will magically go away.
They're collectively pissed off with Corbyn's lack of leadership skils, but they've no one to offer up as a credible opponent or a rival policy platform.
Nothing has changed since July last year, bar lots more belly-aching.
I genuinely have no idea what they want as an outcome. The PLP, their voters and their membership are talking three different languages.
Used to be a big David Cameron fan but his lack of leadership since Thursday is a disgrace.
You are still the PM - man up.
He's an Eden or Chamberlain case. The sooner he's gone the better.
He claims to admire MacMillan but has made a bigger balls up than Eden.
John Major made a decent attempt to govern the country and cope with the Euro-'head bangers' (from a working-class Tory background).
May is also from a fairly non-posh background, which could help connect with ordinary voters who are fed up with toffs who break their promises the day after a referendum.
Comments
And it became up to the government, etc, etc, blah, blah..
Leave has the moral courage of a blancmange.
It will become so clear that the economic cost is too high that we'll find a classic British fudge.
What a mess!
The WWC were always going to be the cannon fodder in the referendum, stoke them up over immigration to get the win then row back and ignore them the moment you have got what you want. Has Matthew Elliot's odious paw prints all over it.
I can't believe we're back to where we were last year!
For the party you understand.
So if Boris is Caesar is Gove Brutus ?
WAT
Bank shares down.
https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/747338750007508992
They simply let Farage and his oppos whip up the anti-immigration vote to get the win.
In hindsight this whole referendum will come to be seen as the most breathtakingly cynical con by, you guessed it, the elite.
This time I will happily and enthusiastically vote for TeamCorbyn knowing that they will win in the hope that another of the Parliamentary Labour party will realise the game is up and form a new party....
Shadow foreign secretary - Emily Thornberry
Shadow health secretary - Diane Abbott
Shadow education secretary - Pat Glass
Shadow transport secretary - Andy McDonald
Shadow defence secretary - Clive Lewis
Shadow chief secretary to the Treasury - Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow international development secretary - Kate Osamor
Shadow environment food and rural affairs secretary - Rachel Maskell
Shadow voter engagement and youth affairs - Cat Smith
Shadow Northern Ireland secretary - Dave Anderson
@RodCrosby analysis looking more and more right.
You are still the PM - man up.
(Saturday night) Most of the Shadow Cabinet (from now on "The Plotters"): Let's gradually resign one-by-one tomorrow and Jeremy will have to quit by the time five or six of us have gone.
(Sunday afternoon) The Plotters: Didn't think we'd need to reach double figures before Jeremy quit.
(Sunday evening) The Plotters: Who hasn't quit yet ? ... because we might need a couple more in the morning.
(Sunday night) Someone within The Plotters: I've got a cunning plan ... why don't we ask a few PPS's to help us out ? ... that should keep the pressure going until at least tomorrow lunchtime and Jeremy can't possibly survive that.
(to be continued ... probably with Jeremy still in charge by the time The Plotters' office cleaners are asked if they'll resign as well)
May would be most unwise to attempt it.
"I'm convinced, for what it's worth, that Cameron will try to hang on if there is a Brexit win. Unless it was a landslide, which it won't be, I think it's a PM's indeed any politician's natural instinct. Look at Brown when he lost the 2010 GE. Clinging on. Dave will do the same.
If, as possible, it's something like 53-47 in favour of Leave, I think he could reasonably say that the country is split down the middle, but he won an outright majority at a GE just 13 months ago, the referendum was not a verdict on him and he was very clear throughout that it was not, and he will stay on.
He will announce that, in the interests of stability, there will be no immediate upheaval. We will continue as EU members for now, as per our obligations, and he will not trigger Article 50, but as a majority of the country narrowly favours Brexit, we now need to take stock of what that means in practical terms, and there will be a period of calm reflection and a 3 month consultation period on what form of relationship Britian should negotiate with our European cousins and the rest of the world, and in the meantime, appoint Michael Gove as Secretary of State for Brexit and Boris as Deputy PM.
Then continue running the country. This would, more than anything, send a signal to Brussels and the other EU capitals, that there might be a chink of light here - a way of offering something radical and new to the UK that might just "keep us in". That should be the signal through diplomatic channels (indeed, I'd hope that's already gone out, in case).
If 50+ Tory MPs want to trigger a contest, then so be it.”
Para 3 hasn’t yet come to pass, at least so far as the last clause is concerned, of course, but I think Mr S should be congratulated.
I can't recall how many Jezza needs. Is it 12 or 16 to cover the front bench briefs?
They will if the Tory Leavers ditch the commitment to end FoM.
Plus plotters plan is to bypass the membership with an unspecified unity candidate
[I'm assuming that is a joke...there is a non-zero probability that it is not]
near perfect
We will have to wait and see what kind of fudge emerges ....... treacle, chocolate or my favourite, vanilla.
However for this to happen we need far more support from our friends in Europe to oppose the dreadful unelected Juncker and others who would have us out tomorrow if it was in their power. These friends, and we do have some, need to take account of the fact that it was the ordinary people of the UK who voted in their millions for us to leave, NOT the politicians, a large majority of whom were Remainers.
For us to vote thus in such numbers, they really need to ask themselves why and what might have persuaded us to vote otherwise. It shouldn't prove impossible to arrive at sensible solutions if there is a real will to succeed.
The membership don't want him.
The only thing that gives him a chance is the £3ers and there's no reason why with decent organisation (lacking in the Labour party for a while I'll admit) that can't be overcome. A Labour leadership election is now quite unique in politics in that you can change the composition of the electorate pretty easily...
There's a phrase I'm searching for here...
I'm a betting man and I'd prefer to go off of hard information rather than what people wish might be the case. Last time I checked he had a big mandate, I accept things may have changed though.
Fuck.
By that logic there should be a second referendum once the deal is on the table if it differs significantly from what appeared to be on offer when we voted.
TBH, I can't get my head around the conflicts within Labour any more.
MPs in Northern seats are still preaching More Europe or hoping the problem will magically go away.
They're collectively pissed off with Corbyn's lack of leadership skils, but they've no one to offer up as a credible opponent or a rival policy platform.
Nothing has changed since July last year, bar lots more belly-aching.
I genuinely have no idea what they want as an outcome. The PLP, their voters and their membership are talking three different languages.
John Major made a decent attempt to govern the country and cope with the Euro-'head bangers' (from a working-class Tory background).
May is also from a fairly non-posh background, which could help connect with ordinary voters who are fed up with toffs who break their promises the day after a referendum.