politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buye
Comments
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As of today, Tyneside and Cornwall are not in my country. Their priorities are not my priorities. My priorities are not their priorities.Starfall said:
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.SouthamObserver said:The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
London has quite enough poverty to sort out. Let us look to our own needs first.0 -
IAG sticks out to me. Fundamentally still very strong, with weak Sterling, BA could see a lot of additional incoming traffic from the transatlantic routes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Do any of those drops strike you as particularly overdone?rcs1000 said:I'm just looking through the FTSE100 changes: the housebuilders have lost a quarter of their value (in Sterling), media companies and airlines 20%, and banks 15%. Oil companies, miners, Rolls Royce, and other non sterling earners (such as SAB Miller) are flat to up. (So down in USD, up in Sterling)
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Mark Carnage, the guy who said we'll all be eating hay next weekTGOHF said:
What carnage ?Richard_Nabavi said:If anyone seriously voted for economic carnage because they were miffed at the phrasing of Obama's restatement of US policy, they needs their heads examining.
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Anyone know whether any kind of Bill needs to go through Parliament, at some point, for actual Brexit?0
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Jezz has been very lucky with his enemies.Lowlander said:It is arguable that Corbyn has achieved a huge amount in a very short time. He's seen off Cameron, he's achieved his dream of Brexit and he's likely gotten a fresh election 4 years early.
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.0 -
We'd have a customised version of EFTA/EEA membership.Paristonda said:As a member of EFTA / EEA, how could we enact controls on migration, entirely of our own power (i.e. something that Norway could currently do)?
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
The EU will want to do a deal with the UK and put the uncertainty to rest. Politics will trump principle.
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LDs to block Brexit?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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In other news, my friend's just given birth to a beautiful baby girl.
She isn't calling her Brexit for some reason.
Life goes on.0 -
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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English carer for my mum - angry about leave because of the poor people in europe won't be able to work here. She lives in a 1 bedroom flat with 4 children. I didn't tell her but her EU coworker has a 2 bed flat with 1 child. Both rented with housing benefit.0
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And it was 1.14 in Aug 2013, and 1.24 in Aug 2014. Are you sure the 'slide' was just down to the referendum?felix said:
If you can't spot it I can't be bothered to explain it. Enjoy your victory.JonnyJimmy said:
Err - it was 1.23 in April. So What?felix said:
err - the £ was 1.40 to the euro last summer - the slide began pretty well as soon as the referendum was announced. I would not be sanguine we've reached the bottom today.JonnyJimmy said:
I know, and we have fallen by over 5% against almost every currency in the world today. But a fair bit of that is a correction to the pound getting pumped up overnight by traders who thought we were nailed on to remain.rcs1000 said:
It's a bit more complicated than that; you need to look at constant currency changes. I.e. if you had a pound in the CAC and a pound in the FTSE, you gained back everything you lost in the Euro's appreciation versus Sterling.JonnyJimmy said:European stock exchanges - AEX (Amsterdam), DAX MDAX SDAX TECDAX (Frankfurt), CAC40 (Paris), BEL20 (Brussels), IBEX (Madrid), SMI SPI (Zurich).. have all lost more than the FTSE100 today
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and they say the left talk straight and don't spin.Lowlander said:It is arguable that Corbyn has achieved a huge amount in a very short time. He's seen off Cameron, he's achieved his dream of Brexit and he's likely gotten a fresh election 4 years early.
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.0 -
Redbridge was closer than expected, 46% Leave.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I was born abroad and I voted LEAVEchestnut said:Anyone trying to understand why London is different must take account of the fact that nearly 40% of the population was born abroad.
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Well quite.Richard_Nabavi said:If anyone seriously voted for economic carnage because they were miffed at the phrasing of Obama's restatement of US policy, they needs their heads examining.
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Based on the PB.Com aggregation news network, there appears to be almost total silence from the usual EU talking heads. – I wonder if they had a backup plan for such an event?0
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The powers to negotiate deals with trading partners, for starters.Starfall said:
Which powers?Jobabob said:
Greater devolution means greater decision making power, not flooding it with more public money. Has to happen.Starfall said:
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.SouthamObserver said:The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
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Gisela?JosiasJessop said:In other news, my friend's just given birth to a beautiful baby girl.
She isn't calling her Brexit for some reason.
Life goes on.
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Mr. Jessop, congrats to your friend 0
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They'd only need to win a couple of extra seats: St Ives and Bath for example. Maybe NE Fife.kle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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Just learning more about Article 50. Worth googling the term. Some interesting articles especially in the FT
The preferred sequence for the EU side is
1. UK immediately triggers Article 50
2. The UK wraps up the exit terms: payments on multiyear projects, what to do about expats in Spain etc. Decided by QMV
3. The UK leaves and reverts to WTO terms in the interim
4. The UK and EU negotiate longer term arrangement by treaty and unanimity. Requires legislation in EU parliament and all 28 national parliaments. May take up to ten years to complete
The preferred sequence for the UK side is
1. The UK and EU hammer out basic deal favourable to both parties
2. The exit terms and the new arrangements are negotiated in parallel and come into force simultaneously
3. Article 50 is unimportant.
A stalemate is likely if Britain delays triggering Article 50 and the EU refuses to pre-negotiate the longer term arrangement. In principle everything carries on as at present.
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Given their recovery will likely needs to be over a decade at least, perhaps their pitch should be to want to rejoin - it's too risky for Labour to try, but while the LDs have pitched under the pro-EU banner before, if things do go badly if they are already arguing to rejoin (even accepting we would pay through the nose and have to use the Euro etc, if they even let us rejoin) they might be better placed to pick up support.rottenborough said:
LDs to block Brexit?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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Let me caveat that by saying it's not going to be necessarily a great deal. We will have to give in certain areas. I'm currently looking at our actual trade with Europe, to see who we actually need to negotiate with beyond the obvious ones.anotherDave said:
We'd have a customised version of EFTA/EEA membership.Paristonda said:As a member of EFTA / EEA, how could we enact controls on migration, entirely of our own power (i.e. something that Norway could currently do)?
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
The EU will want to do a deal with the UK and put the uncertainty to rest. Politics will trump principle.
We should be confident that we can get a mutually beneficial deal with Germany without too much faffing about.0 -
Even if a longshot Labour must do it and save the country from its own mistake.Jobabob said:NickPalmer said:
Interesting idea. Would drastically redraw the political landscape in both directions.RobD said:
Could Labour stand on a platform not to leave the EU, I wonder?Scott_P said:@MichaelLCrick: McDonnell tells me Labour would welcome a general Elelction this autumn and expects new PM to call one
I hope everyone got on this
Clever idea. But a successful one? I'm not so sure. If you chose a Tory-friendly ultra-moderate leader like Chuka it might just work. Become the europhile party of the centre, centre-right and centre-left. The Tories might struggle then to stand on a eurosceptic platform, because they'd need lots of working class eurosceptic voters, which don't like voting Tory.
Longshot? Certainly. But maybe not as mad as it sounds, especially as many Leavers are now openly saying they regret voting that way.0 -
I've been trying to get a hold of my German contact, but he's been a bit unresponsive today!SimonStClare said:Based on the PB.Com aggregation news network, there appears to be almost total silence from the usual EU talking heads. – I wonder if they had a backup plan for such an event?
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There is also silence from G Osborne. That could be significant.SimonStClare said:Based on the PB.Com aggregation news network, there appears to be almost total silence from the usual EU talking heads. – I wonder if they had a backup plan for such an event?
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So the UK should stop sending £8.5 billion NET to Brussels each year?AlastairMeeks said:
As of today, Tyneside and Cornwall are not in my country. Their priorities are not my priorities. My priorities are not their priorities.Starfall said:
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.SouthamObserver said:The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
London has quite enough poverty to sort out. Let us look to our own needs first.0 -
What about Norfolk ?AlastairMeeks said:
As of today, Tyneside and Cornwall are not in my country. Their priorities are not my priorities. My priorities are not their priorities.Starfall said:
London getting more devolution would mean less money to poor places like Tyneside and Cornwall. No decent progressive can support that.SouthamObserver said:The logical extension of this result is clearly that Scotland gets to decide on whether it wants independence and that there is much greater devolution of power within England to those areas that want it. London would be an obvious example. That must be what taking power back from the elite means in practice.
London has quite enough poverty to sort out. Let us look to our own needs first.0 -
What could it mean?AlastairMeeks said:
There is also silence from G Osborne. That could be significant.SimonStClare said:Based on the PB.Com aggregation news network, there appears to be almost total silence from the usual EU talking heads. – I wonder if they had a backup plan for such an event?
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He's accepted the referendum result (on twitter).AlastairMeeks said:
There is also silence from G Osborne. That could be significant.SimonStClare said:Based on the PB.Com aggregation news network, there appears to be almost total silence from the usual EU talking heads. – I wonder if they had a backup plan for such an event?
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Keiran Pedley
Ipsos MORI | News | Statement from Ipsos MORI on the EU referendum result https://t.co/zetAP7Wtq00 -
Perhaps we can hold that position through a new GE and get a new HoC to debate the finer details.FF43 said:Just learning more about Article 50. Worth googling the term. Some interesting articles especially in the FT
The preferred sequence for the EU side is
1. UK immediately triggers Article 50
2. The UK wraps up the exit terms: payments on multiyear projects, what to do about expats in Spain etc. Decided by QMV
3. The UK leaves and reverts to WTO terms in the interim
4. The UK and EU negotiate longer term arrangement by treaty and unanimity. Requires legislation in EU parliament and all 28 national parliaments. May take up to ten years to complete
The preferred sequence for the UK side is
1. The UK and EU hammer out basic deal favourable to both parties
2. The exit terms and the new arrangements are negotiated in parallel and come into force simultaneously
3. Article 50 is unimportant.
A stalemate is likely if Britain delays triggering Article 50 and the EU refuses to pre-negotiate the longer term arrangement. In principle everything carries on as at present.0 -
Scope in the counties surrounding London, the right sort of liberal conservative mirrors places in Surrey, Herts etckle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
Elsewhere, Trump is a liar and a fraud, what sort of idiot could support his clown politics here?
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Ha! My mentioning the Treaty of Troyes at 4.31pm, this at 4.34pm....PlatoSaid said:SkyNews
French government spokesman says UK's decision to leave the European Union will not affect its bilateral immigration treaty with UK #EUref0 -
I think quite a few people are nostalgic for the coalition right now.AndyJS said:
They'd only need to win a couple of extra seats: St Ives and Bath for example. Maybe NE Fife.kle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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Let's hope so. I think it is in Remainer's interests to throw in their lot with those leavers happy with a result like that. The politics of it could well be why we don't get a favourable deal though, the EU can't give us too good an offer or it will be finished. I'm just not sure what they could offer on free movement though. Quotas?anotherDave said:
We'd have a customised version of EFTA/EEA membership.Paristonda said:As a member of EFTA / EEA, how could we enact controls on migration, entirely of our own power (i.e. something that Norway could currently do)?
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
The EU will want to do a deal with the UK and put the uncertainty to rest. Politics will trump principle.0 -
He's a bit like the Peter Sellers character in the film Being There.Lowlander said:It is arguable that Corbyn has achieved a huge amount in a very short time. He's seen off Cameron, he's achieved his dream of Brexit and he's likely gotten a fresh election 4 years early.
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.0 -
Yes I think there was something of a conflation of correlation and causation in Lowlander's post. But I suspect he is fully aware of that...Stark_Dawning said:
Jezz has been very lucky with his enemies.Lowlander said:It is arguable that Corbyn has achieved a huge amount in a very short time. He's seen off Cameron, he's achieved his dream of Brexit and he's likely gotten a fresh election 4 years early.
Of course that doesn't mean the new election will go well for him. But on his record, he is doing a remarkable job.0 -
I added that bit on. I wouldn't actually stake money on it, but it would not surprise me. If things get bumpy in a few months this is not going to seem such a good idea and we will still be a member state. It might work for everyone if we quietly revoked our invocation of Article 50. However, it looks like the deal Cameron got has now been consigned to the rubbish bin so we'd be going back on the pre-deal terms, which means it's probably less likely than it might otherwise have been.Jobabob said:SouthamObserver said:
Yep, we do most of our business in US$ so today has been pretty good news for us, at least in the short term.rcs1000 said:
If you look at the FTSE 100, it's full of US dollar earners: Anglo American, Shell, BP, Rio Tinto, BHP, ARM etc. If the sterling goes down, it is entirely logical they go up.TCPoliticalBetting said:What economic shock?
FTSE100 now trading higher than it was in February when Cameron called the referendum.
source Skynews 3.50pm
A better barometer of the extent of the shock is to look at the performance of the banks (don 15% or so), or to look at the FTSE250.
Talking of brave tips – the second part of your "we will vote to Leave" was that we "will never actually leave the EU, because people will very soon regret it".
Standing by that too?
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Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"0
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Obladi ObladaJosiasJessop said:In other news, my friend's just given birth to a beautiful baby girl.
She isn't calling her Brexit for some reason.
Life goes on.0 -
I think we need to wait and see what happens once the German industrial unions and leaders sink their teeth into Merkel and Schäuble for ever letting it get this far and to force them into getting a deal done quickly, they will never want to lose the UK consumer market to Japanese, American and domestic suppliers.FF43 said:Just learning more about Article 50. Worth googling the term. Some interesting articles especially in the FT
The preferred sequence for the EU side is
1. UK immediately triggers Article 50
2. The UK wraps up the exit terms: payments on multiyear projects, what to do about expats in Spain etc. Decided by QMV
3. The UK leaves and reverts to WTO terms in the interim
4. The UK and EU negotiate longer term arrangement by treaty and unanimity. Requires legislation in EU parliament and all 28 national parliaments. May take up to ten years to complete
The preferred sequence for the UK side is
1. The UK and EU hammer out basic deal favourable to both parties
2. The exit terms and the new arrangements are negotiated in parallel and come into force simultaneously
3. Article 50 is unimportant.
A stalemate is likely if Britain delays triggering Article 50 and the EU refuses to pre-negotiate the longer term arrangement. In principle everything carries on as at present.0 -
bit late now, when they should have told Merkel to do a deal, they kept stumm.MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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What happened to MI5?0
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Basically they're trying to claim they were right all along but where they were wrong it wasn't their fault.PlatoSaid said:Keiran Pedley
Ipsos MORI | News | Statement from Ipsos MORI on the EU referendum result https://t.co/zetAP7Wtq0
The entire polling industry seems incapable of getting England right. The strange thing is they get Scotland pretty much spot on.0 -
No they don't. They wanted us, up to a point.MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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Yes, well we were the main nation standing against EU integration, we took all the heat for it while Poland reaped the benefits while not standing in our corner. With friends like them who needs enemies?MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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Clearly we will throw our lot in with that. People are already trying to work out a way that we get back into the single market pronto and there is no point cutting our noses off to spite our faces.Paristonda said:
Let's hope so. I think it is in Remainer's interests to throw in their lot with those leavers happy with a result like that. The politics of it could well be why we don't get a favourable deal though, the EU can't give us too good an offer or it will be finished. I'm just not sure what they could offer on free movement though. Quotas?anotherDave said:
We'd have a customised version of EFTA/EEA membership.Paristonda said:As a member of EFTA / EEA, how could we enact controls on migration, entirely of our own power (i.e. something that Norway could currently do)?
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
The EU will want to do a deal with the UK and put the uncertainty to rest. Politics will trump principle.0 -
I think the UK would have to make free movement a deal breaker.Paristonda said:
Let's hope so. I think it is in Remainer's interests to throw in their lot with those leavers happy with a result like that. The politics of it could well be why we don't get a favourable deal though, the EU can't give us too good an offer or it will be finished. I'm just not sure what they could offer on free movement though. Quotas?anotherDave said:
We'd have a customised version of EFTA/EEA membership.Paristonda said:As a member of EFTA / EEA, how could we enact controls on migration, entirely of our own power (i.e. something that Norway could currently do)?
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
The EU will want to do a deal with the UK and put the uncertainty to rest. Politics will trump principle.
This morning Mr Hannan seemed to be talking about standard immigration controls. We could refuse entry to undesirables/unskilled. No access to UK welfare, or voting rights. > Think work permits.
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Pensrottenborough said:What happened to MI5?
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So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
Boris? New voting system? More devolution?SouthamObserver said:
I know it's going to be OK in the end. What worries me is whether what we end up with will be worth all the pain in the meantime. Thinking positively, if Boris, Gove etc do act imaginatively to make our democracy much more vibrant - more devolution, a change in voting system etc - then it will certainly be worth some pain. But I suspect that now they are in charge they will be very happy to keep things as they are. I hope I am wrong.CD13 said:Mr Observer,
"Congratulations by the way on calling the result."
Who needs the pollsters when you're around? Cheer up, things are never as dark as they seem. I'm sure a few Brexiteers woke up with a feeling of "What have we done?". After 41 years, that's natural.
The old gits remember how we got here and know the dangers are over-egged. Why else would a normally risk-averse demographic vote for change while the weedy kids are peeing themselves? That, and the fact that they've endured ongoing insults for years. It's the old white men that are the problem, remember?
Let me know what you are taking...I want some!0 -
That'll depend on whether inflation rises above target. If the pound cratered, inflation would rise.TudorRose said:
Fair point. Any thoughts on interest rates? I heard someone on R5 speculating on short/medium term rate rises, but I think it might just muddy the (already unclear) waters.rcs1000 said:
If you rebase everything to include currency changes, we're not looking so hot.TudorRose said:
Nice spot! Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels all down c.6% and Madrid down 10%. Even the FTSE allshare is only down 3%.IanB2 said:
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.maaarsh said:
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.Sandpit said:
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.Omnium said:it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
One of the many issues facing us is that we're already on Planet Weird as far as the economy goes. Brexit just moves us along to Planet Bizarre. Liquidity isn't an issue, so there's that.0 -
That happens to me a lot.Lowlander said:
Basically they're trying to claim they were right all along but where they were wrong it wasn't their fault.PlatoSaid said:Keiran Pedley
Ipsos MORI | News | Statement from Ipsos MORI on the EU referendum result https://t.co/zetAP7Wtq0
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"Liquidity isn't an issue, so there's that."John_M said:
That'll depend on whether inflation rises above target. If the pound cratered, inflation would rise.TudorRose said:
Fair point. Any thoughts on interest rates? I heard someone on R5 speculating on short/medium term rate rises, but I think it might just muddy the (already unclear) waters.rcs1000 said:
If you rebase everything to include currency changes, we're not looking so hot.TudorRose said:
Nice spot! Paris, Frankfurt and Brussels all down c.6% and Madrid down 10%. Even the FTSE allshare is only down 3%.IanB2 said:
People will mull things over the weekend and I would expect the markets will test new lows at some point next week.maaarsh said:
Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.Sandpit said:
It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.Omnium said:it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.
Meanwhile the Euro-markets have been hit at least as much, of course, because of the risk that Brexit leads to the disintegration of the whole EU project...
One of the many issues facing us is that we're already on Planet Weird as far as the economy goes. Brexit just moves us along to Planet Bizarre. Liquidity isn't an issue, so there's that.
Because we can just print the stuff.0 -
FF43 said:
Just learning more about Article 50. Worth googling the term. Some interesting articles especially in the FT
The preferred sequence for the EU side is
1. UK immediately triggers Article 50
2. The UK wraps up the exit terms: payments on multiyear projects, what to do about expats in Spain etc. Decided by QMV
3. The UK leaves and reverts to WTO terms in the interim
4. The UK and EU negotiate longer term arrangement by treaty and unanimity. Requires legislation in EU parliament and all 28 national parliaments. May take up to ten years to complete
The preferred sequence for the UK side is
1. The UK and EU hammer out basic deal favourable to both parties
2. The exit terms and the new arrangements are negotiated in parallel and come into force simultaneously
3. Article 50 is unimportant.
A stalemate is likely if Britain delays triggering Article 50 and the EU refuses to pre-negotiate the longer term arrangement. In principle everything carries on as at present.
If you really want to read about this there are some very good articles on law firm websites. Camerons is very good (and I've never worked there).0 -
No, I think Poland needs us, we were, mostly, alone in fighting against integration and standing up for non-EMU interests. Without us fighting that unpopular battle and taking all the heat, they will have to do it alone and it won't be long before the rest the EU turns against them as they did to us.kle4 said:
No they don't. They wanted us, up to a point.MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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Yeah but it wasn't supposed to go like that... Wasn't a distraught Downing St, source quoted as saying "This wasn't supposed to happen" at 5am?Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call. 0 -
Oh, this is worse than Suez. Maybe need to go back to the Irish Home rule crisis of late 19th and early 20th c?Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
BBC — Stephen Kinnock supporting no confidence motion.0
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BBC: Steven Kinnock supports the vote of no confidence in Corbyn.
His mum and dad must be so pissed off....0 -
Then they should have been more supportive in convincing others to give us more.MaxPB said:
No, I think Poland needs us, we were, mostly, alone in fighting against integration and standing up for non-EMU interests. Without us fighting that unpopular battle and taking all the heat, they will have to do it alone and it won't be long before the rest the EU turns against them as they did to us.kle4 said:
No they don't. They wanted us, up to a point.MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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You'll find quite a few posters on this website. WTF!Thrak said:
Scope in the counties surrounding London, the right sort of liberal conservative mirrors places in Surrey, Herts etckle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
Elsewhere, Trump is a liar and a fraud, what sort of idiot could support his clown politics here?0 -
Absolutely right, if only Dave had said that from the beginning, we would have had a landslide leave vote, he'd still be PM and the EU could brush it off as a "British problem" rather than it destabilising the whole project while we have no leadership and no real contingency plan.Jobabob said:
Clearly we will throw our lot in with that. People are already trying to work out a way that we get back into the single market pronto and there is no point cutting our noses off to spite our faces.Paristonda said:
Let's hope so. I think it is in Remainer's interests to throw in their lot with those leavers happy with a result like that. The politics of it could well be why we don't get a favourable deal though, the EU can't give us too good an offer or it will be finished. I'm just not sure what they could offer on free movement though. Quotas?anotherDave said:
We'd have a customised version of EFTA/EEA membership.Paristonda said:As a member of EFTA / EEA, how could we enact controls on migration, entirely of our own power (i.e. something that Norway could currently do)?
If the EU is insistent on no special deals and a quick timeline, we will likely be offered a menu of one item - Norway.
Can migration controls of some form be enacted in this case? emergency brakes for example?
The EU will want to do a deal with the UK and put the uncertainty to rest. Politics will trump principle.0 -
So many gravy train passengers have hit the buffers.MarqueeMark said:BBC: Steven Kinnock supports the vote of no confidence in Corbyn.
His mum and dad must be so pissed off....0 -
Poland didn't just get benefits. Losing a chunk of your educated working age population has negative effects.MaxPB said:
Yes, well we were the main nation standing against EU integration, we took all the heat for it while Poland reaped the benefits while not standing in our corner. With friends like them who needs enemies?MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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If he'd backed LEAVE in February, he would still be PM...Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
Are they talking about wives?Lowlander said:
Basically they're trying to claim they were right all along but where they were wrong it wasn't their fault.PlatoSaid said:Keiran Pedley
Ipsos MORI | News | Statement from Ipsos MORI on the EU referendum result https://t.co/zetAP7Wtq0
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there's a lot of discussion about this today - standing for the 48% in the way that the SNP stood for the 45% I suspect this is just the denial stage (and frankly, once you're out, and going back in on less favourable terms it's a different equation) but it looks like serious thought is being given. 1000 new Lib Dem members today apparently. Hoping a few are in my ward!kle4 said:
Given their recovery will likely needs to be over a decade at least, perhaps their pitch should be to want to rejoin - it's too risky for Labour to try, but while the LDs have pitched under the pro-EU banner before, if things do go badly if they are already arguing to rejoin (even accepting we would pay through the nose and have to use the Euro etc, if they even let us rejoin) they might be better placed to pick up support.rottenborough said:
LDs to block Brexit?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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He would also be a national hero....Sunil_Prasannan said:
If he'd backed LEAVE in February, he would still be PM...Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
It wasn't calling the referendum that did for him; it was the god awful renegotiation and his attempt to sell it.Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
They also have draconian anti-abortion laws. I thought the EU was about feminism?anotherDave said:
Poland didn't just get benefits. Losing a chunk of your educated working age population has negative effects.MaxPB said:
Yes, well we were the main nation standing against EU integration, we took all the heat for it while Poland reaped the benefits while not standing in our corner. With friends like them who needs enemies?MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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I think the first clue we're going to get is when Dave goes to Brussels next week. Let's see what the mood music is from the various leaders then.FF43 said:Just learning more about Article 50. Worth googling the term. Some interesting articles especially in the FT
The preferred sequence for the EU side is
1. UK immediately triggers Article 50
2. The UK wraps up the exit terms: payments on multiyear projects, what to do about expats in Spain etc. Decided by QMV
3. The UK leaves and reverts to WTO terms in the interim
4. The UK and EU negotiate longer term arrangement by treaty and unanimity. Requires legislation in EU parliament and all 28 national parliaments. May take up to ten years to complete
The preferred sequence for the UK side is
1. The UK and EU hammer out basic deal favourable to both parties
2. The exit terms and the new arrangements are negotiated in parallel and come into force simultaneously
3. Article 50 is unimportant.
A stalemate is likely if Britain delays triggering Article 50 and the EU refuses to pre-negotiate the longer term arrangement. In principle everything carries on as at present.
It wouldn't surprise me if the sabre rattling continues for a while. As an outsider, I can't easily tell what the true power balance is between the idealists and the pragmatists.
For now, everything is exactly the same as it was yesterday. I'm much more worried about our current account deficit than anything related to the EU (market shenanigans aside).0 -
kle4 said:
I think quite a few people are nostalgic for the coalition right now.AndyJS said:
They'd only need to win a couple of extra seats: St Ives and Bath for example. Maybe NE Fife.kle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
None of them are Tim Farronkle4 said:
I think quite a few people are nostalgic for the coalition right now.AndyJS said:
They'd only need to win a couple of extra seats: St Ives and Bath for example. Maybe NE Fife.kle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
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"Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt"
If they have already begun moving them, how come they don't know if they are sending them to Dublin or Frankfurt?0 -
Agreed, but I don't think they were alone in underestimating the anger our working classes had wrt to EU immigration, and as the source of a lot of the immigration one wonders whether the Polish government didn't want to upset all their expats in the UK by agreeing to benefits restrictions or forcing them to pay in for a few years.kle4 said:
Then they should have been more supportive in convincing others to give us more.MaxPB said:
No, I think Poland needs us, we were, mostly, alone in fighting against integration and standing up for non-EMU interests. Without us fighting that unpopular battle and taking all the heat, they will have to do it alone and it won't be long before the rest the EU turns against them as they did to us.kle4 said:
No they don't. They wanted us, up to a point.MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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Constitutional ban on gay marriage too. GRS is allowed, so they get a C+.Sunil_Prasannan said:
They also have draconian anti-abortion laws. I thought the EU was about feminism?anotherDave said:
Poland didn't just get benefits. Losing a chunk of your educated working age population has negative effects.MaxPB said:
Yes, well we were the main nation standing against EU integration, we took all the heat for it while Poland reaped the benefits while not standing in our corner. With friends like them who needs enemies?MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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PMs - after a while they start believing their own bullshit. It always gets them in the end. Cameron was just quicker than most.GIN1138 said:
Yeah but it wasn't supposed to go like that... Wasn't a distraught Downing St, source quoted as saying "This wasn't supposed to happen" at 5am?Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.0 -
Shocking vox pops from Hartlepool on radio 5. Leave voters blaming 'the immigrants ruining the nhs', 'I don't know why I voted leave' etc. To hell with the political correctness here, and I'm happy saying this as I'm from a similar background and know it well, but these people are thick, self destructive, intolerant. I escaped and I never want anything to do with them again; that they can spread that destruction nationally is a sick, sick joke. I don't want them pandered to, I want them to suffer. Not PC I know, but the nice comfy middle class here don't have to deal with them, just needing to use their ignorance from the other end of the country. Shame on you. Get out there and see what you have wrought.0
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The EFTA court applies ECJ case law.MaxPB said:
We wouldn't be under ECJ jurisdiction. We would instead be under the EFTA court and only for issues relating to trade, not anything else. The ECJ would no longer apply their worldview on our own and we would be able to judge ECHR rulings in our own courts again according to our laws, not the EU/ECJ's fundamental charter.SouthamObserver said:
And that is a very fair view. Hopefully, a majority will continue to see it that way too. We are, of course, still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, though, and will be for several more years. If you get the EEA/EFTA deal you want we will be after that as well.MaxPB said:
We had an "expert currency trader" on here, can't remember his name, who was adamant that Sterling would fall to parity levels with EUR and hit 1.05 with USD. Cicero of this parish also has given some outlandish views of market movements that didn't materialise today, yet he is still her trying to spread doom and gloom.OllyT said:
You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.JennyFreeman said:
exactly.Chelyabinsk said:How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.
I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
It will be a bumpy ride, but this nation has been through worse and we will come out stronger and with a better democracy for it. The centre of power has moved one step closer to voters for a very large number of issues and we're no longer under ECJ jurisdiction. That is worth whatever comes out way IMO.
How do we make our democracy better?
That was one of the biggest victories last night, we have reclaimed our own laws which suit our way of life.0 -
The one good thing to come out of this, conspiracy proven wrong.rottenborough said:What happened to MI5?
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Me,
Am I smug? Nah!
I am a proud Englishman that is happy to get my country - and all Subjects within - back under English-Law. Tomorrow may pour-down but today is nothing but sunshine, breathing fresh-air and celebrating the great sentiment that is freedom. *
* This view may not be shared by Scots born, Liverpool supporters whom claim to be 'true Yorkshiremen' because they are poncie-shoed solicitors....0 -
Thats awful. The last thing we need is less merchant bankers.David_Evershed said:"Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt"
If they have already begun moving them, how come they don't know if they are sending them to Dublin or Frankfurt?0 -
My guess is that a) the class-dimension trumped the London-dimension and b) the difference between the BAME population and the white population wasn't as great as people had speculatedAndyJS said:I'd be interested to know why Remain underperformed expectations in Newham, Hounslow, Greenwich, Slough.
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Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
Of course not, why would the Defence Secretary pine for that? #obviousjokeFreggles said:kle4 said:
I think quite a few people are nostalgic for the coalition right now.AndyJS said:
They'd only need to win a couple of extra seats: St Ives and Bath for example. Maybe NE Fife.kle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
None of them are Tim Farronkle4 said:
I think quite a few people are nostalgic for the coalition right now.AndyJS said:
They'd only need to win a couple of extra seats: St Ives and Bath for example. Maybe NE Fife.kle4 said:
Where would the LDs win back seats? Their old English and Welsh seats voted Leave, Scottish ones will presumably once again go SNP. So the few seats in London?AndyJS said:We could be back to a Tory/LD coalition after an autumn election if the Tories lose a few seats and the LDs recover slightly.
0 -
The fall in the pound will help
a) Increase exports and close the trade deficit, and
b) Increase inflation to the 2% target specified to the B of E by the Government0 -
Not leaving after all?Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.
Oh and I totally floated that second idea here on PB! 0 -
Amazing that shadow cabinet ministers are hoping for a general election loss:
https://twitter.com/ChrisMcSh/status/7463616296427929600 -
FWIW, I don't think that's fair or indeed accurate. Suez was a cabinet level decision. While it signalled a step change in Britain's view of itself in the world, it was only a question of time and place: The 2 superpower world could only mean that.rottenborough said:
Oh, this is worse than Suez. Maybe need to go back to the Irish Home rule crisis of late 19th and early 20th c?Jonathan said:So let's get this straight.
Cameron offered a referendum to placate his right-wing and win the 2015 general election. In return it bought him another 12 months of power and a place in the pantheon of Prime Minsters alongside Eden.
Good call.
The referendum is more a case of vox populi, vox dei. For better or worse.0 -
The "I don't know why I voted Leave" is becoming something of a meme, sadly.Thrak said:Shocking vox pops from Hartlepool on radio 5. Leave voters blaming 'the immigrants ruining the nhs', 'I don't know why I voted leave' etc. To hell with the political correctness here, and I'm happy saying this as I'm from a similar background and know it well, but these people are thick, self destructive, intolerant. I escaped and I never want anything to do with them again; that they can spread that destruction nationally is a sick, sick joke. I don't want them pandered to, I want them to suffer. Not PC I know, but the nice comfy middle class here don't have to deal with them, just needing to use their ignorance from the other end of the country. Shame on you. Get out there and see what you have wrought.
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Yes, but that's a different argument, Poland now looks very lonely as a nation against integration.anotherDave said:
Poland didn't just get benefits. Losing a chunk of your educated working age population has negative effects.MaxPB said:
Yes, well we were the main nation standing against EU integration, we took all the heat for it while Poland reaped the benefits while not standing in our corner. With friends like them who needs enemies?MarqueeMark said:Polish Ambassador on BBC: "We need the British"
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Unless MI5s agenda was to get rid of Cameron!Freggles said:
The one good thing to come out of this, conspiracy proven wrong.rottenborough said:What happened to MI5?
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You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
They really, really wouldn't.Scott_P said:
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
Yeah, lol. You have to wonder how much of this is just winged.kle4 said:
You mean to cocking tell me they can pull together such a proposal in a day, or else already had it in their back pockets?! We might have gone for that! But it's obviously too late to offer it to us now, even if there were so inclined. So others will reap the benefits.Scott_P said:Straws in the wind
@Louiseaileen70: BBG head:
"GERMAN & FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTERS TO PRESENT PAPER TO COLLEAGUES FROM 6 FOUNDING EU MEMBERS ON SAT SUGGESTING A FLEXIBLE EU"
@RupertMyers: Many people would vote for and campaign for a new Labour leader to win a general election on a platform of keeping Britain in the EU.0 -
If that's what they think then Corbyn is obviously safe and they know they couldn't beat him.AndyJS said:Amazing that shadow cabinet ministers are hoping for a general election loss:
https://twitter.com/ChrisMcSh/status/7463616296427929600 -
Newham had a lot of enthusiastic young people who have never been in politics joining the vote leave campaign. They fought a hard campaign there as apperently 200 people turned up at the campaign centre on the day! Asian people are not that in favour of remain also.Lennon said:
Non-EU Immigrants less Remain than expected? (See also Burnley)AndyJS said:I'd be interested to know why Remain underperformed expectations in Newham, Hounslow, Greenwich, Slough.
0
