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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buye

SystemSystem Posts: 12,547
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buyer’s remorse

Only 30% of Leave supporters thought the UK would actually vote leave. Many will have woken up surprised today. pic.twitter.com/2228FDL9cK

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    First?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Mike, I've also donated. You, your son, and all the mods do a wonderful job.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    FPT

    Scott et al,

    I just read a tweet that says Morgan Stanley have refuted the BBC leave story.

    Your concerns are noted though, and I do have a sense of foreboding today.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    I was right. They are wishing a recession.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/746331933337071616
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    People said the same when the Tories won a majority without the Lib Dems, but it didn't seem to materialise in any future polls.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    edited June 2016
    If you think we're deep in the brown stuff now just wait until the Tory Euro loons elect Boris as PM.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Gaby Hinsliff must be in seventh heaven, she’s guaranteed years of Guardian articles whining about the past 24 hours.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jason said:

    I was right. They are wishing a recession.

    When a recession materialises, you are going to blame it on wishes?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    The voters are never wrong even they manifestly are. If there is buyers remorse ( and it's far to early to tell ) voters won't express it as " I was wrong ! " The good news is they'll hang Boris from a lamppost. The bad news is Remainers can't win by going on again about remaining because we're leaving. It's got to be a different product and expressed with humility. We just haven't understood several million people. The voters are never wrong even when they manifestly are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    The tweets above remind me of last year when all these people were decrying that the country had the nerve to vote for a Tory majority government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Interestingly I would have been one who said I thought Leave would win, in fact I predicted it on many occasions, but from my own stunned response, I don't think at heart I actually believed myself that it would happen.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,576
    edited June 2016
    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now? The public have had their only say and will any politicians force these pledges through? What's the come-back if voters say they only voted Leave on the basis of promises that dissolved into the ether the next day?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,038
    I don't know if Matthew Shaddick or anybody from Ladbrokes reads this board, but the staff at your shop couldn't have been more helpful in paying out. Thank you for making an unnerving experience less worrying
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    taffys said:

    FPT

    Scott et al,

    I just read a tweet that says Morgan Stanley have refuted the BBC leave story.

    Your concerns are noted though, and I do have a sense of foreboding today.

    It's a bit like walking out on your wife, and the day after you think 'what have I done?'.

    The test will be longer down the road when you're both in a much healthier happier place (hopefully!!!).

  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    For the vast majority of voters tomorrow will be just another day, and none more so that the mass of C2DE voters that roused themselves for the first time and came out to vote. The FTSE is down a bit, but within the bounds of the last six months, Sterling is down a fraction, but no worse than last week, most of those people will glance at the morning's paper and then get on with their lives. There may well be substantial changes ahead, but how many of them are going to be noticed by the people that actually swung the vote ?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarkHopkins said:

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    About as shocking as the sun rising in the east.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited June 2016
    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited June 2016
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    MarkHopkins said:

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    No surprises there. For all the hyperbole from foreign leaders before the vote, pragmatism will quickly take over now that we are where we are.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    tpfkar said:

    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now? The public have had their only say and will any politicians force these pledges through? What's the come-back if voters say they only voted Leave on the basis of promises that dissolved into the ether the next day?

    That's easy, we get the chance to kick them out every 5 years! The £100/week just disappeared into the unaccountable EU to date.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,169
    MarkHopkins said:

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    Where does that say that he'd give us an immediate trade deal, which was rather his point?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236
    FPT
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    Why would the EU position be stronger. I still fail to see it, we are a nation of importers and consumers, they are a bloc of producers and savers. Yes, their market is vast, but for 30 years it hasn't worked in our favour, we now have a chance to reset that relationship, I can't foresee any government signing a deal that didn't include access for services exports. It would be better to go for WTO at that point and let the Germans deal with import substitution and more competitive British exports in non-EU nations.

    We don't need a deal, especially one that doesn't include services trade. I expect if the EU tried to play hardball, we'd tell them to go fuck themselves and watch the chairmen of Daimler, BMW and Opel demand Mrs Merkel (or whoever replaces her) give in to British demands on services trade. Britain is a huge, huge market, especially for finished manufactured goods.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,793
    "The majority have no right to do wrong."
    - Eamonn de Valera after the June 1922 Free State election, when his Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein lost to the Pro-Treaty faction.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    Has anybody set eye's on Osborne?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    tpfkar said:

    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now? The public have had their only say and will any politicians force these pledges through? What's the come-back if voters say they only voted Leave on the basis of promises that dissolved into the ether the next day?

    Tough. I think voters who made that call are a bit thick. But so what ? They probably think I'm a sneering elitist. People can vote on what ever basis they chose then we count the votes. Caveat Emptor.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    Artist said:

    People said the same when the Tories won a majority without the Lib Dems, but it didn't seem to materialise in any future polls.

    This sort of reaction seems to happen with all votes in the era of social media and the internet. As I said back a bit the 2004 Presidential election was epic for hysterical whinging, and few if any of the many, many threats to decamp were actually carried out.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    viewcode said:

    I don't know if Matthew Shaddick or anybody from Ladbrokes reads this board, but the staff at your shop couldn't have been more helpful in paying out. Thank you for making an unnerving experience less worrying

    He sometimes drops in here, goes by @shadsy if you wanted to drop him a message.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236
    Lol, so the Morgan Stanley story was a fake. As I said, with all of this we have to be quite wary about what to believe. The government haven't even set out what Leave looks like yet, companies won't react until then. Except maybe European ones who are feeling a lot of political heat to invest at home.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:

    ttps://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    Poor you. All those Labour voters. Scrape them off the bottom of your shoe.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,793
    Chelyabinsk said:

    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.

    Pro-REMAIN bias from Mike and TSE :lol:
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,054
    Sandpit said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    No surprises there. For all the hyperbole from foreign leaders before the vote, pragmatism will quickly take over now that we are where we are.
    It may be enduring, but we're still at the back of the queue.

    Although if it's a LIFO queue that's the place to be. ;)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    I don't doubt there will be plenty of buyer's remorse going around - if things do in fact go badly in the next 6 months, I'll probably be tearfully telling Jobabobb he was right all along. The EU will be playing hardball from now on, Cameron is for all his faults an ok PM and his replacements far from certain, and a probable mid range break up of the UK is back into short term focus. There'll be remorse from people who didn't realise what it really meant or actively ignored the risks as being possible - rather than determining the risk was worth it - and yes, particularly where people didn't believe it would happen.

    I imagine it was only a small number of people, certainly not swinging any result, but how many felt more comfortable voting Leave when the odds got ridiculous yesterday morning?

    But it is too late now. Maybe referenda should need more than such a narrow margin, but there was no rule it had too, so it's done, and the EU is not inclined to make a new offer so not even an pretext to re run to be had.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    Stark_Dawning said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    Where does that say that he'd give us an immediate trade deal, which was rather his point?
    He won't even be POTUS when we want to negotiate.

    The Donald however... ;)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Blue_rog said:

    Mike, I've also donated. You, your son, and all the mods do a wonderful job.

    Thank you
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Chelyabinsk said:

    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.

    exactly.

    I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Indigo said:

    For the vast majority of voters tomorrow will be just another day, and none more so that the mass of C2DE voters that roused themselves for the first time and came out to vote. The FTSE is down a bit, but within the bounds of the last six months, Sterling is down a fraction, but no worse than last week, most of those people will glance at the morning's paper and then get on with their lives. There may well be substantial changes ahead, but how many of them are going to be noticed by the people that actually swung the vote ?

    well said
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Chelyabinsk said:

    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.

    Well quite.

    I didn't think we'd win - I didn't bet on what I wanted because I didn't want to jinx it.

    And we've shown a load more backbone than many thought.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016
    tpfkar said:

    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now? The public have had their only say and will any politicians force these pledges through? What's the come-back if voters say they only voted Leave on the basis of promises that dissolved into the ether the next day?

    The usual comeback, kicking the buggers out at the next election.

    Leaving aside the Remain and Leave are only campaign groups, neither of which exist after today, and only HMG can set policy the government has to decide how to implement the voters mandate, and if they voters don't like the result they kick them out and elect someone else to do it better.

    Dave ditched 8-9 manifesto promises within a month of being elected, at the next GE that will be one of the factors taken into account when voters decided who they plan to elect. Similarly if the current government is perceived to have screwed over the voters, it might be, however unlikely, Mr Corbyn's lucky day.

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,730
    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,236
    Stark_Dawning said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    Where does that say that he'd give us an immediate trade deal, which was rather his point?
    We don't have a trade deal with the US at the moment and we trade with them just fine. I'd also be very surprised if the TTIP passed now without our backing, the US might come knocking a lot sooner than most think.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,639
    I must admit that I do feel the doomongers have taken over the airwaves today.

    That's not to say that we haven't had a nasty economic shock. And it's very possible this shock will continue. But it did feel this morning as if the TV stations were keen to all pile on a "we're doomed" narrative.

    Having now digested things, it seems clear to me we've had a reaction. But the UK will endure. Something feels much different here than in 2008 - a feeling that we're going to have an uncomfortable readjustment, but that this isn't full on terror like what is being presented.

    I hope I'm right.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    GIN1138 said:

    Has anybody set eye's on Osborne?

    Been dealing with G7 and fallout according to twitter account.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    edited June 2016
    tpfkar said:

    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now?

    I suspect we'll have an election where these things and the "type" of Brexit we want to negotiate is set out in a manifesto.

    Could be as early as this Autumn depending on how quickly the Con leadership contest progresses.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    The Trump that might be the next leader of the free world.. ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,730
    MikeSmithson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Mike, I've also donated. You, your son, and all the mods do a wonderful job.

    Thank you
    Yep. Great job Mr S.

    Some Omnium funds in your kitty too.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    MikeSmithson said:

    Blue_rog said:

    Mike, I've also donated. You, your son, and all the mods do a wonderful job.

    Thank you
    Will be donating later. PB has been amazing these past weeks. :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    numbertwelve said:

    I must admit that I do feel the doomongers have taken over the airwaves today.

    Seems like irresponsible behaviour from the MPs. They should be talking down economic squalls.

  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    YellowSubmarine said:

    tpfkar said:

    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now? The public have had their only say and will any politicians force these pledges through? What's the come-back if voters say they only voted Leave on the basis of promises that dissolved into the ether the next day?

    People can vote on what ever basis they chose then we count the votes.
    Yes indeed. As long as no laws were broken, people being misled or misinterpreting what was being promised, or those promising it changing their minds later and not doing it, is very standard. Normally the accountability can be a bit more direct, it's your responsibility to get angry about it and vote them out next time, or be better informed. With this it's not as easy as blaming an entire party for a claim, but you have to put the effort in.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    numbertwelve said:

    I must admit that I do feel the doomongers have taken over the airwaves today.

    That's not to say that we haven't had a nasty economic shock. And it's very possible this shock will continue. But it did feel this morning as if the TV stations were keen to all pile on a "we're doomed" narrative.

    Having now digested things, it seems clear to me we've had a reaction. But the UK will endure. Something feels much different here than in 2008 - a feeling that we're going to have an uncomfortable readjustment, but that this isn't full on terror like what is being presented.

    I hope I'm right.

    Have you seen Bad Al on Sky - he's in full bile mode.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Buyer's Remorse. Lol.
    A vintage crop of sour grapes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    edited June 2016
    Montie on Sky still banging on about Farage, racists, etc etc etc.

    The London media bubble just don't get it.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    71% of leavers think the internet is a force for ill. Seriously?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,793
    http://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/746330414592188416/photo/1
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    numbertwelve said:

    I must admit that I do feel the doomongers have taken over the airwaves today.

    That's not to say that we haven't had a nasty economic shock. And it's very possible this shock will continue. But it did feel this morning as if the TV stations were keen to all pile on a "we're doomed" narrative.

    Having now digested things, it seems clear to me we've had a reaction. But the UK will endure. Something feels much different here than in 2008 - a feeling that we're going to have an uncomfortable readjustment, but that this isn't full on terror like what is being presented.

    I hope I'm right.

    The thing is it is the doom-mongers that have the most to lose by said economic doom-mongering...
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.
  • HappyMcFluffyHappyMcFluffy Posts: 53
    tpfkar said:

    One question is where accountability will come from - Vote Leave have pledged to implement a points-based immigration system, £100m per week to the NHS and reduce VAT on fuel. But how can anyone hold them to account now? The public have had their only say and will any politicians force these pledges through? What's the come-back if voters say they only voted Leave on the basis of promises that dissolved into the ether the next day?

    £350m per week, right...

    But seriously - it can be said that Leave aren't a political party, and don't have to implement that policy, or any of the others. However, Boris (and Gove?) stood by that figure, and they are both in the running to be the next PM. I would expect them to be held to it - or at least to show how they will implement it, once we have left the EU.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    edited June 2016
    Thrak said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Has anybody set eye's on Osborne?

    Been dealing with G7 and fallout according to twitter account.
    Hiding under the duvet with a bottle whisky more like... ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    Jobabob said:

    71% of leavers think the internet is a force for ill. Seriously?

    They haven't been on PB :p
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    edited June 2016
    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    Check out the map. Usual suspects: London and Brighton, for the most part.
    Jobabob said:

    71% of leavers think the internet is a force for ill. Seriously?

    No. 51% of people who think the internet is a force for evil voted for Leave, which means that 49% voted Remain. But unfortunately, you can't stereotype Leavers as Luddites because 51% of the people who think it's a force for good voted Leave.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    ? 22% anti-feminists voted Remain with you, and 38% of pro-feminists voted Leave against you.

    Groups and individuals are a cocktail of differing, often contrary opinions.
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Indigo said:

    For the vast majority of voters tomorrow will be just another day, and none more so that the mass of C2DE voters that roused themselves for the first time and came out to vote. The FTSE is down a bit, but within the bounds of the last six months, Sterling is down a fraction, but no worse than last week, most of those people will glance at the morning's paper and then get on with their lives. There may well be substantial changes ahead, but how many of them are going to be noticed by the people that actually swung the vote ?

    FTSE 100 at 6143 - it was below 6000 as recently as a fortnight ago
    FTSE 250 at 15990, lowest it's been since... erm February 2016
    There's obviously a lot of uncertainty in the markets at the moment, particularly so since I think people generally assumed Remain would win.

    Here's what Neil Woodford has to say:

    "In the near-term it is likely that UK GDP will be lower over the next 18 months or so than if we had voted to remain. But, because inflation will (temporarily) be higher following the fall in the pound, nominal GDP could well be little changed. Growth in consumer cash flow will be marginally lower, principally because fuel prices will be higher but of course exporters will enjoy something of a windfall.

    Longer term, he thinks the trajectory of both the UK and global economy will not be influenced significantly by today's outcome.

    "Although market conditions such as these can be unsettling, we would strongly urge investors to look through this period of uncertainty and focus on the long-term opportunity which, in our view, continues to remain attractive.""

    http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/331448/neil-woodfords-wisdom-brexit



  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    PlatoSaid said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.

    Of course. Because there is another vote coming up so clearly and obviously they are trying to influence the outcome :-D

  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Indigo said:

    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    The Trump that might be the next leader of the free world.. ?
    One Brit has tried to off him already. if Clinton doesn't get him someone else may well try to.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,397
    Absolutely gutted at the result, but that is democracy and the electorate has spoken.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Montie on Sky still banging on about Farage, racists, etc etc etc.

    The London media bubble just don't get it.

    Haven't they noticed that the votes have been cast and the result announced ? Most of the country will now move on with their lives (except on here naturally ;) )
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,310
    edited June 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.

    Of course. Because there is another vote coming up so clearly and obviously they are trying to influence the outcome :-D

    It's unusual for the winning side to proclaim themselves as victims but there you go.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,600
    Jobabob said:

    71% of leavers think the internet is a force for ill. Seriously?

    No, you don't understand the graphic. Read it more carefully.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good afternoon all. Hinsliff is an idiot.

    We lost our AAA rating with Moody and Fitch several years ago. S&P warned that the UK would lose its AAA rating in June last year. But, hey, don't let facts stand in the way of a twitter tantrum.

    Today, I'm mostly just tired out. Good speeches from Cameron and Johnson. I certainly don't feel any sense of triumph. We're too divided. The closeness of the result means that it's going to be (at least) a bile-filled weekend. Thank God for Twitch and Reddit.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    Phone of the hook, and into his third hour of playing video games on his iPad.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,564
    Indigo said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Montie on Sky still banging on about Farage, racists, etc etc etc.

    The London media bubble just don't get it.

    Haven't they noticed that the votes have been cast and the result announced ? Most of the country will now move on with their lives (except on here naturally ;) )
    Yeah, this feels like a monumental event which I can't yet fully comprehend. It feels weird, and I feel weird. Probably will take a while for it to fully settle in, probably because I follow politics so closely.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
    What if the next referendum is below 60%? And the one after that? Come on. You either believe in a democratic process or you don't. A majority is a majority, unequivocally, even by just one vote. I believe in that, the losing side obviously don't.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Thrak said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
    Like you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    edited June 2016
    75 Labour controlled council areas voted out. Agent Jahadi Jez wins it for leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Chelyabinsk said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    Check out the map. Usual suspects: London and Brighton, for the most part.
    Jobabob said:

    71% of leavers think the internet is a force for ill. Seriously?

    No. 51% of people who think the internet is a force for evil voted for Leave, which means that 49% voted Remain.
    Surprisingly light in Scotland - too busy joining the SNP to confirm Independence no doubt. A fairly decent spread in the hundreds across the south though, if obviously concentrated in the usual places.

    When it hits 5 million, then they'll be a force to be reckoned with.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,684
    Buyers remorse ? Hmmm. Will we hear rather less about the wisdom of crowds or the accuracy of the consensus from now on? If there is any buyers remorse it seems the like of SeanT who thought he could do the right thing but not risk his house price?

    Gesture voting is never a good idea. Vote for what you want, none of this tactical rubbish.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,038
    PlatoSaid said:

    I didn't bet on what I wanted because I didn't want to jinx it.

    This is why the betting market is not a perfect market. And as long as people continue to make betting decisions to demonstrate loyalty to a cause or machismo (the "Deutsche Bakner" problem), there will continue to be betting opportunities

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    anotherDave said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    Phone of the hook, and into his third hour of playing video games on his iPad.
    Just another day's chillaxing?

    So do we think now it's over people will start speaking out about how much Downing St. was orchestrating Project Fear (example, Barry saying "back of the queue" rather than "back of the line" always seemed suspicious)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,176
    edited June 2016
    TUC spin line...it was the global economic crash and cuts.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    PlatoSaid said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I must admit that I do feel the doomongers have taken over the airwaves today.

    That's not to say that we haven't had a nasty economic shock. And it's very possible this shock will continue. But it did feel this morning as if the TV stations were keen to all pile on a "we're doomed" narrative.

    Having now digested things, it seems clear to me we've had a reaction. But the UK will endure. Something feels much different here than in 2008 - a feeling that we're going to have an uncomfortable readjustment, but that this isn't full on terror like what is being presented.

    I hope I'm right.

    Have you seen Bad Al on Sky - he's in full bile mode.
    He's getting warmed up for when Chilcot accuses him in a couple of weeks' time.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    News reporting by copying what they read off twitter. Unreal.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,600
    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
    Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,964
    Is Boris the man to unite the nation?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjFboRwGiqc
  • glwglw Posts: 10,454
    edited June 2016
    Indigo said:

    For the vast majority of voters tomorrow will be just another day, and none more so that the mass of C2DE voters that roused themselves for the first time and came out to vote.

    There are two big football matches coming up for us anti-EU neanderthals to be more concerned about than what the FTSE does or some investment bank says.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    GIN1138 said:

    anotherDave said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    Phone of the hook, and into his third hour of playing video games on his iPad.
    Just another day's chillaxing?

    So do we think now it's over people will start speaking out about how much Downing St. was orchestrating Project Fear (example, Barry saying "back of the queue" rather than "back of the line" always seemed suspicious)
    There'll be books on that campaign. I'm looking forward to reading them. :)
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Thrak said:

    Indigo said:

    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746284427165184000

    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    The Trump that might be the next leader of the free world.. ?
    One Brit has tried to off him already. if Clinton doesn't get him someone else may well try to.
    In the present climate that sort of post is best avoided.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,930
    Sandpit said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    numbertwelve said:

    I must admit that I do feel the doomongers have taken over the airwaves today.

    That's not to say that we haven't had a nasty economic shock. And it's very possible this shock will continue. But it did feel this morning as if the TV stations were keen to all pile on a "we're doomed" narrative.

    Having now digested things, it seems clear to me we've had a reaction. But the UK will endure. Something feels much different here than in 2008 - a feeling that we're going to have an uncomfortable readjustment, but that this isn't full on terror like what is being presented.

    I hope I'm right.

    Have you seen Bad Al on Sky - he's in full bile mode.
    He's getting warmed up for when Chilcot accuses him in a couple of weeks' time.
    I heard he was going to get away with it (Tony not so much)

    We'll see...

    Tick. Tock.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    YellowSubmarine said:

    The voters are never wrong even they manifestly are. If there is buyers remorse ( and it's far to early to tell ) voters won't express it as " I was wrong ! " The good news is they'll hang Boris from a lamppost. The bad news is Remainers can't win by going on again about remaining because we're leaving. It's got to be a different product and expressed with humility. We just haven't understood several million people. The voters are never wrong even when they manifestly are.

    It is much too early. And there will not be Leave or Remain parties. We have voted to go and that is that. However, what we also know is that the Tory Leavers now own what happens from today onwards. They have promised no tax increases, more public spending, higher wages, more jobs, cheaper housing costs and so on. It is up to them to deliver. They are the champions of ordinary people. And ordinary people will judge them on that basis.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
    What if the next referendum is below 60%? And the one after that? Come on. You either believe in a democratic process or you don't. A majority is a majority, unequivocally, even by just one vote. I believe in that, the losing side obviously don't.

    What I find most heartening is that despite the very many attempts to subvert the democratic process - we voted Leave.

    £9m tax payers money on an incredibly biased leaflet, giving concessions on HMG legislation for Remain union campaigning, breaking purdah, allowing Remain to campaign for weeks before the Electoral Commission picked an official Leave team - and on and on and on.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,706
    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    If that petition were implemented, we could end up with an actual neverendum. There's no escape clause if the referendums repeatedly throw up results which don't match the criteria.

    But I guess from the date it only went up yesterday or today?
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 509
    kle4 said:

    When it hits 5 million, then they'll be a force to be reckoned with.

    We ignored the Chartists, and they got six million. And they put a damn sight more effort into their petition to boot.
This discussion has been closed.