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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first challenge for the BREXIT team – dealing with buye

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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,949
    DavidL said:

    Buyers remorse ? Hmmm. Will we hear rather less about the wisdom of crowds or the accuracy of the consensus from now on? If there is any buyers remorse it seems the like of SeanT who thought he could do the right thing but not risk his house price?

    Gesture voting is never a good idea. Vote for what you want, none of this tactical rubbish.

    The question was clear enough. The answer was clear too. So we move on. Democracy can't and shouldn't protect us from stupid decisions.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,419
    Sandpit said:


    He sometimes drops in here, goes by @shadsy if you wanted to drop him a message.

    I've thanked him via message. Thank you.

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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    PlatoSaid said:

    Thrak said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
    Like you?
    From my reading you over a week you are one of the most extreme hate filled posters on here, insult me and I will be proud of it. You are no conservative.

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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:
    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    More than half the country is nasty? OK. I really don't think the metro elite will ever get the message.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,015

    Apparently not at the back of the queue...

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/746333998654296064

    Where does that say that he'd give us an immediate trade deal, which was rather his point?
    errr he wont be there in 5 months.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,941

    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.

    exactly.

    I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
    You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
    What if the next referendum is below 60%? And the one after that? Come on. You either believe in a democratic process or you don't. A majority is a majority, unequivocally, even by just one vote. I believe in that, the losing side obviously don't.

    I think there is an argument to be had that some things require a little more authority than just 50%+1 vote - as you point out, the difficulty then becomes what the level should be then, when it should be employed, and so on. That is presumably why we haven't got such a rule on our referendums, as agreeing those points would not be easy.

    But it is flippant to suggest the mere idea if not believing in the democratic process. We place certain limits on pure democracy for various reasons - for example, why isn't it law that the referendum must be followed? It won't happen, but parliament could ignore 52% of the public - do they believe in the democratic process or not? No, it has been decided that, will of the people or not, we want our representatives to have the opportunity to decide what to do in response, and a changing situation. It could be decided some things are important enough a great level of support is reasonably required.

    You might well disagree - I'm not convinced what level such should be at or when, or indeed what questions should be decided by referenda at all - but there's some nuance to the question, even if the petition is let down by a) being backdated to stop the result and b) the turnout figure clearly designed to take account of what this specific turnout was
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
    What if the next referendum is below 60%? And the one after that? Come on. You either believe in a democratic process or you don't. A majority is a majority, unequivocally, even by just one vote. I believe in that, the losing side obviously don't.

    What I find most heartening is that despite the very many attempts to subvert the democratic process - we voted Leave.
    I don't think I'll entirely relax until we are legally out of the EU though. Or the EU ceases to be!

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Barry saying "back of the queue" rather than "back of the line" always seemed suspicious)

    No, it really, really didn't.

    Adjust your tinfoil.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    JohnO said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.

    Of course. Because there is another vote coming up so clearly and obviously they are trying to influence the outcome :-D

    It's unusual for the winning side to proclaim themselves as victims but there you go.

    There are people who thrive on victimhood.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    Scott_P said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Barry saying "back of the queue" rather than "back of the line" always seemed suspicious)

    No, it really, really didn't.

    Adjust your tinfoil.
    I'm going to try and be kind to you today Scott. :)
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Thrak said:

    Indigo said:

    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:
    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    The Trump that might be the next leader of the free world.. ?
    One Brit has tried to off him already. if Clinton doesn't get him someone else may well try to.
    In the present climate that sort of post is best avoided.
    Precisely because of the present clomate that it needs addressing. He has so many enemies he has to be careful.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784

    kle4 said:

    When it hits 5 million, then they'll be a force to be reckoned with.

    We ignored the Chartists, and they got six million. And they put a damn sight more effort into their petition to boot.
    It was merely an expression
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    Check out the map. Usual suspects: London and Brighton, for the most part.
    Jobabob said:

    71% of leavers think the internet is a force for ill. Seriously?

    No. 51% of people who think the internet is a force for evil voted for Leave, which means that 49% voted Remain. But unfortunately, you can't stereotype Leavers as Luddites because 51% of the people who think it's a force for good voted Leave.
    You've read the chart wrong, it's 71%. 51% of Leavers thought Capitalism is a force for ill. The label is beneath the icon.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    Thrak said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
    I'm too boss-eyed to dig down into the figures. Maybe I've just been wandering around in a bubble. Just about everybody I know is pretty much socially liberal, even here in the boonies.

    My extended family ramifies across the working/middle/upper classes, two of my nephews have settled down with 'foreign' girls (Irish and Iranian), one has just got married to his boyfriend, I'm non-op TG, both my sibs and I have done the ex-pat thing and travelled the world. Isn't everyone like that :)? Mostly we voted Leave, but I assumed everyone at least liked the Internet fer chrissake.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,278
    LucyJones said:

    Indigo said:

    For the vast majority of voters tomorrow will be just another day, and none more so that the mass of C2DE voters that roused themselves for the first time and came out to vote. The FTSE is down a bit, but within the bounds of the last six months, Sterling is down a fraction, but no worse than last week, most of those people will glance at the morning's paper and then get on with their lives. There may well be substantial changes ahead, but how many of them are going to be noticed by the people that actually swung the vote ?

    FTSE 100 at 6143 - it was below 6000 as recently as a fortnight ago
    FTSE 250 at 15990, lowest it's been since... erm February 2016
    There's obviously a lot of uncertainty in the markets at the moment, particularly so since I think people generally assumed Remain would win.

    Here's what Neil Woodford has to say:

    "In the near-term it is likely that UK GDP will be lower over the next 18 months or so than if we had voted to remain. But, because inflation will (temporarily) be higher following the fall in the pound, nominal GDP could well be little changed. Growth in consumer cash flow will be marginally lower, principally because fuel prices will be higher but of course exporters will enjoy something of a windfall.

    Longer term, he thinks the trajectory of both the UK and global economy will not be influenced significantly by today's outcome.

    "Although market conditions such as these can be unsettling, we would strongly urge investors to look through this period of uncertainty and focus on the long-term opportunity which, in our view, continues to remain attractive.""

    http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/331448/neil-woodfords-wisdom-brexit
    That's a very good article. The market reaction as reported by the media is lacking in context somewhat.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.
    Sky this morning were bizarre. EU is lovely, EU is great blah-blah-blah.

    I actually watched the BBC by choice!
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    glwglw Posts: 9,583
    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    The thing I was imagining earlier was the Queen and Prince Philip at breakfast. I suspect he had a smile on his face.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,419
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Buyers remorse ? Hmmm. Will we hear rather less about the wisdom of crowds or the accuracy of the consensus from now on? If there is any buyers remorse it seems the like of SeanT who thought he could do the right thing but not risk his house price?

    Gesture voting is never a good idea. Vote for what you want, none of this tactical rubbish.

    The question was clear enough. The answer was clear too. So we move on. Democracy can't and shouldn't protect us from stupid decisions.
    More precisely, democracy isn't a method of making good decisions, it's a method for seeking consent. People are entitled to vote for any reason they dashed well please.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,377
    taffys said:

    FPT

    Scott et al,

    I just read a tweet that says Morgan Stanley have refuted the BBC leave story.

    Your concerns are noted though, and I do have a sense of foreboding today.

    Usual Scott scaremongering twatter talk
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,419
    Anyhoo, I gotta go. Laters, Alligators
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Thrak said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Thrak said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
    Like you?
    From my reading you over a week you are one of the most extreme hate filled posters on here, insult me and I will be proud of it. You are no conservative.

    Aww, you're such a charmer.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    John_M said:

    Thrak said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
    I'm too boss-eyed to dig down into the figures. Maybe I've just been wandering around in a bubble. Just about everybody I know is pretty much socially liberal, even here in the boonies.

    My extended family ramifies across the working/middle/upper classes, two of my nephews have settled down with 'foreign' girls (Irish and Iranian), one has just got married to his boyfriend, I'm non-op TG, both my sibs and I have done the ex-pat thing and travelled the world. Isn't everyone like that :)? Mostly we voted Leave, but I assumed everyone at least liked the Internet fer chrissake.
    It is possible to see too many cat pictures.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Is Boris the man to unite the nation?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjFboRwGiqc

    The hinterlands are going to be a bit surprised when the Leave leadership keep funneling the money into London.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    AnneJGP said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    If that petition were implemented, we could end up with an actual neverendum. There's no escape clause if the referendums repeatedly throw up results which don't match the criteria.

    But I guess from the date it only went up yesterday or today?
    It went up today.
    Something tells me it wouldn't have gone up, had we voted Remain.
    Still, didn't we have a petition last year along the lines of "XXX% of people didn't vote for Cameron, so he shouldn't be PM"?
    A worrying number of people only seem to accept democratic rule when it gives them the result they wanted.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,015
    Alistair Campbell now knifing Corbyn
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    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,358

    JohnO said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.

    Of course. Because there is another vote coming up so clearly and obviously they are trying to influence the outcome :-D

    It's unusual for the winning side to proclaim themselves as victims but there you go.

    There are people who thrive on victimhood.

    I wonder how long it will take for them to realize that they are now The Establishment.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,686
    OllyT said:

    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.

    exactly.

    I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
    You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.
    We had an "expert currency trader" on here, can't remember his name, who was adamant that Sterling would fall to parity levels with EUR and hit 1.05 with USD. Cicero of this parish also has given some outlandish views of market movements that didn't materialise today, yet he is still her trying to spread doom and gloom.

    It will be a bumpy ride, but this nation has been through worse and we will come out stronger and with a better democracy for it. The centre of power has moved one step closer to voters for a very large number of issues and we're no longer under ECJ jurisdiction. That is worth whatever comes out way IMO.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    nunu said:

    Thrak said:

    Alistair said:
    I've tried to think that I might have something in common with leavers but that's shocking. They hate feminism too! These are nasty, nasty people. Trump level nasty.
    More than half the country is nasty? OK. I really don't think the metro elite will ever get the message.
    Wwc background, we aren't all the same. The closer you are the more you know these people and what they really are.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    edited June 2016
    AnneJGP said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    If that petition were implemented, we could end up with an actual neverendum. There's no escape clause if the referendums repeatedly throw up results which don't match the criteria.

    But I guess from the date it only went up yesterday or today?
    Yes. Given the point is for these things to go to a debate (which will be small, very few MPs will openly agree with such a thing, though a few might agree in principle for future plebiscites), such details could be ironed out if the cause were taken up by someone who sought to bring a bill to that effect, but clearly the proposal as it stands is not designed as a common sense rule for all referenda.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    glw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    The thing I was imagining earlier was the Queen and Prince Philip at breakfast. I suspect he had a smile on his face.
    I'm sure... And "Mummy" wherever she is god bless her, will be raising a dram... ;)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,015
    edited June 2016
    Funny 8 hours on and Cameron just doesn't seem relevant any more.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    PlatoSaid said:

    Jason said:

    kle4 said:

    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    The 75% turnout rule would be ridiculous, far too high a bar, but the other bit isn't a bad idea (nice it is 'if remain or leave'). No justification for backdating a rule like that though. Might not be a bad idea to bring in for future though - so if we do try to rejoin, then leave, then rejoin again or whatever, that we're really sure this time.
    What if the next referendum is below 60%? And the one after that? Come on. You either believe in a democratic process or you don't. A majority is a majority, unequivocally, even by just one vote. I believe in that, the losing side obviously don't.

    What I find most heartening is that despite the very many attempts to subvert the democratic process - we voted Leave.

    £9m tax payers money on an incredibly biased leaflet, giving concessions on HMG legislation for Remain union campaigning, breaking purdah, allowing Remain to campaign for weeks before the Electoral Commission picked an official Leave team - and on and on and on.
    It'd be nice to see a what if episode where HMG recommended Brexit. 90%:10% ?

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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.
    Miss Plato, the seven(?) stages of grief. First comes denial, then anger and so on. This site is full of it today. The BBC and Sky are perhaps still at stage one as are some on here (though most of those grieving seem to have progressed to stage 2 very quickly).
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Funny 8 hours on and Cameron just doesn't seem relevant any more.

    If he wants to be relevant he should do something with a dead pig.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    viewcode said:

    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    Buyers remorse ? Hmmm. Will we hear rather less about the wisdom of crowds or the accuracy of the consensus from now on? If there is any buyers remorse it seems the like of SeanT who thought he could do the right thing but not risk his house price?

    Gesture voting is never a good idea. Vote for what you want, none of this tactical rubbish.

    The question was clear enough. The answer was clear too. So we move on. Democracy can't and shouldn't protect us from stupid decisions.
    More precisely, democracy isn't a method of making good decisions, it's a method for seeking consent. People are entitled to vote for any reason they dashed well please.

    It's one of history's little ironies that we generally laud the Athenians for being the fathers of democracy, without examining the sequence of entirely boneheaded decisions that the voters subsequently took.

    I'll assert that it's impossible to read a history of the Peloponnesian War without facepalming at least once as the Athenians vote to exile or execute their most gifted leaders and admirals, even in the face of almost certain doom.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Do we have any post mortem re: party share yet? However sampled and rejigged, I'd love to plug these in to my 2015 voting model....
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016

    Funny 8 hours on and Cameron just doesn't seem relevant any more.

    Hey, you're talking about Regaine's next UK spokesmodel there pal. Of course he's relevant!

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    malcolmg said:

    taffys said:

    FPT

    Scott et al,

    I just read a tweet that says Morgan Stanley have refuted the BBC leave story.

    Your concerns are noted though, and I do have a sense of foreboding today.

    Usual Scott scaremongering twatter talk
    Afternoon Malc. We've socked it to the Establishment eh? ;)
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    John_M said:

    Thrak said:

    Jobabob said:

    Leavers "hate" feminism. Really?

    And the internet.

    Are they some sort of luddites as well as being grossly intolerant?
    I'm too boss-eyed to dig down into the figures. Maybe I've just been wandering around in a bubble. Just about everybody I know is pretty much socially liberal, even here in the boonies.

    My extended family ramifies across the working/middle/upper classes, two of my nephews have settled down with 'foreign' girls (Irish and Iranian), one has just got married to his boyfriend, I'm non-op TG, both my sibs and I have done the ex-pat thing and travelled the world. Isn't everyone like that :)? Mostly we voted Leave, but I assumed everyone at least liked the Internet fer chrissake.
    It is possible to see too many cat pictures.
    Only if you follow me on Twitter :smiley:
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Congrats @viewcode - winning your first political bet IIRC? Took me at least 4 or 5 goes before I got on to a winner....
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    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    FTSE100 now down around 1.75% and steadily rising. It's now the worst fall in 10 days, so lots of journalists have some rewriting to do.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,515
    edited June 2016
    Other European exit portmanteaux

    Grexit
    Departugal
    Italeave
    Czechout
    Oustria
    Finish
    Slovakout
    Latervia
    Byegium

    From http s://twitter.com/AlvinCarpio/status/746021433235640320:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    Phone of the hook, and into his third hour of playing video games on his iPad.
    Just another day's chillaxing?

    So do we think now it's over people will start speaking out about how much Downing St. was orchestrating Project Fear (example, Barry saying "back of the queue" rather than "back of the line" always seemed suspicious)
    The thing I don't get about the 'back of the queue' conspiracies, is do you really think Barack Obama is incapable of reading the speech, knowing it was seen as important, and putting a personal spin on it, having his people take our things he obviously wouldn't say?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,015

    JohnO said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.

    Of course. Because there is another vote coming up so clearly and obviously they are trying to influence the outcome :-D

    It's unusual for the winning side to proclaim themselves as victims but there you go.

    There are people who thrive on victimhood.

    I wonder how long it will take for them to realize that they are now The Establishment.
    Nothing wrong with taking the politicans out and giving them a damned good kicking.

    Maybe now we'll kill of the toxic formula that they have nowhere else to go and politicans will start taking voters concerns on board
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    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    I mean no disrespect, Alastair, but the boot is rather on the other foot. The cover has been taken off the bed that the powerful made for the weak in our society to lie on - and released a swarm of biting insects.
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    RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,654
    Stewart Pearson / David Cameron on the Conservative Party:

    "I've spent ten years detoxifying this party. It's been a bit like renovating an old, old house, yeah? You can take out a sexist beam here, a callous window there, replace the odd homophobic roof tile. But after a while you realise that this renovation is doomed. Because the foundations are built on what I can only describe as a solid bed of cunts."
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Mortimer said:

    Do we have any post mortem re: party share yet? However sampled and rejigged, I'd love to plug these in to my 2015 voting model....

    Ashcroft poll I posted earlier. Look at his twitter.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,835
    maaarsh said:

    FTSE100 now down around 1.75% and steadily rising. It's now the worst fall in 10 days, so lots of journalists have some rewriting to do.

    Ed Conway will still balls it up.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    All those people saying Carney was toast, his public and behind the scenes work appears to have, at least temporarily, helped shore things up.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    If I had to bet, I would actually suggest there will not be other countries leaving the EU. The EU is great at fudging solutions - not that these solve problems long term - when their backs are really to the wall. Clearly many leavers didn't even think leave would win, and I doubt the EU did too. Now they know it has happened here and can happen elsewhere, they will pull out the stops to prevent this becoming a trend.

    It is a glorious tragedy that it may be that it was simply not possible to get a more flexible EU such as even many Leavers wanted, until someone, in this case us, actually Left.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,015

    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.
    Miss Plato, the seven(?) stages of grief. First comes denial, then anger and so on. This site is full of it today. The BBC and Sky are perhaps still at stage one as are some on here (though most of those grieving seem to have progressed to stage 2 very quickly).
    Llama man, I never thought we'd do it.

    Cheers, I'll be opening a bottle tonight
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    The hysteria will evaporate entirely within a few weeks
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    perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    If you think about the last 100 years of our history we have been bu**ered by Germany - WW1, WW11, German inflexibility in the EU. You are witnessing the beginning of the Fourth Reich, if the EU survives.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    MaxPB said:

    OllyT said:

    How does it follow from the information given here that "many voted for LEAVE because they thought it wouldn’t happen"? I suspect most Leavers did the same as me: voted for the result they wanted, but expected others to lose their nerve in the booth. It just happens that the public as a whole is more staunch than we expected.

    exactly.

    I hope 'experts' will stop spouting crap and be a bit more humble. not holding my breath though
    You might be wise to wait to see whether they were right or not before tell;ing them to shut up.
    We had an "expert currency trader" on here, can't remember his name, who was adamant that Sterling would fall to parity levels with EUR and hit 1.05 with USD. Cicero of this parish also has given some outlandish views of market movements that didn't materialise today, yet he is still her trying to spread doom and gloom.

    It will be a bumpy ride, but this nation has been through worse and we will come out stronger and with a better democracy for it. The centre of power has moved one step closer to voters for a very large number of issues and we're no longer under ECJ jurisdiction. That is worth whatever comes out way IMO.

    And that is a very fair view. Hopefully, a majority will continue to see it that way too. We are, of course, still under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, though, and will be for several more years. If you get the EEA/EFTA deal you want we will be after that as well.

    How do we make our democracy better?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140
    runnymede said:

    The hysteria will evaporate entirely within a few weeks

    Winning the Euros would be a pleasant distraction :p
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,069
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. kle4, we might see non-eurozone nations (Sweden being the prime example) leaving.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    Has anybody told them the referendum is over? Perhaps they are still in shock.
    Both the BBC and Sky are still trying to win it for Remain. It's most entertaining - and very obvious.
    Miss Plato, the seven(?) stages of grief. First comes denial, then anger and so on. This site is full of it today. The BBC and Sky are perhaps still at stage one as are some on here (though most of those grieving seem to have progressed to stage 2 very quickly).
    Indeedee. I went to bed at about 5am totally plonked. And spent 3hrs catching up on a thousand+ posts - some of them are truly bizarro.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    runnymede said:

    The hysteria will evaporate entirely within a few weeks

    We'll have a lot of fun first though.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    edited June 2016


    Mr. kle4, we might see non-eurozone nations (Sweden being the prime example) leaving.

    Perhaps - depends on how big our initial shock and how long it goes on (and thus how much a risk it will be for them, now there is a case study), and what new offers the EU makes (to them).
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    kle4 said:

    If I had to bet, I would actually suggest there will not be other countries leaving the EU. The EU is great at fudging solutions - not that these solve problems long term - when their backs are really to the wall. Clearly many leavers didn't even think leave would win, and I doubt the EU did too. Now they know it has happened here and can happen elsewhere, they will pull out the stops to prevent this becoming a trend.

    It is a glorious tragedy that it may be that it was simply not possible to get a more flexible EU such as even many Leavers wanted, until someone, in this case us, actually Left.

    Ireland and Denmark only joined the EU on our coat-tails. It's not a stretch to see them follow us out too.

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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    Pure affectation.
    You're on the record saying you wouldn't shed a tear if the UK left the innately flawed EU.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140
    kle4 said:


    Mr. kle4, we might see non-eurozone nations (Sweden being the prime example) leaving.

    Perhaps - depends on how big our initial shock and how long it goes on, and what new offers the EU makes (to them).
    I'm wondering if the EU will use this as a reason to further political union, in an attempt to make the EU more secure.
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    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,941

    Buyer's Remorse. Lol.
    A vintage crop of sour grapes.

    It's too early to be drawing any conclusions in either direction. Let's see where we are in a year's time, the electorate are extremely fickle, especially if they don't get the "stuff" they think they have been promised. Leave have won but now they have to put their money where their mouths are. It won't be easy, enjoy the moment.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    I can see 'Esperanto as a second language' courses becoming popular......
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    Pure affectation.
    You're on the record saying you wouldn't shed a tear if the UK left the innately flawed EU.
    Perhaps it's leaving for the 'wrong reasons'? Alastair has been critical of the campaign to leave.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    AnneJGP said:

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    I mean no disrespect, Alastair, but the boot is rather on the other foot. The cover has been taken off the bed that the powerful made for the weak in our society to lie on - and released a swarm of biting insects.
    Bedbugs for Brexit :lol:
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
    Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
    The EU is now (almost) officially bankrupt - they have no real bargaining power and the leaders are just now figuring it out - the Emperor has no clothes.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,583
    kle4 said:

    It is a glorious tragedy that it may be that it was simply not possible to get a more flexible EU such as even many Leavers wanted, until someone, in this case us, actually Left.

    Sometimes you just have to take one for the team.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    AnneJGP said:

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    I mean no disrespect, Alastair, but the boot is rather on the other foot. The cover has been taken off the bed that the powerful made for the weak in our society to lie on - and released a swarm of biting insects.

    As far as I can see the powerful are still in charge. And one extremely privileged man is likely to be replaced as PM by another extremely privileged man. Political parties will still be able to govern on 37% of the vote and will still be able to ignore the wishes, needs and aspirations of many of those who voted to Leave. So what exactly has changed, except that we are gong to get a regime change within the establishment?

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    perdix said:

    If you think about the last 100 years of our history we have been bu**ered by Germany - WW1, WW11, German inflexibility in the EU. You are witnessing the beginning of the Fourth Reich, if the EU survives.

    If we must complain of german dominance in the EU, which is a thing, could we not at the least refer to it as german hegemony rather than the nazi analogies? They're dominant because they are strong, and not in the same way as they were in the world wars, and the problems with their dominance are the same either.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140
    edited June 2016

    AnneJGP said:

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    I mean no disrespect, Alastair, but the boot is rather on the other foot. The cover has been taken off the bed that the powerful made for the weak in our society to lie on - and released a swarm of biting insects.

    As far as I can see the powerful are still in charge. And one extremely privileged man is likely to be replaced as PM by another extremely privileged man. Political parties will still be able to govern on 37% of the vote and will still be able to ignore the wishes, needs and aspirations of many of those who voted to Leave. So what exactly has changed, except that we are gong to get a regime change within the establishment?

    For the love of all that is holy I hope it isn't Boris!
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    She can't get through.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    Don't get fleas.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140
    The most gerrymandered constituencies ever? :p
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,065
    Thrak said:

    All those people saying Carney was toast, his public and behind the scenes work appears to have, at least temporarily, helped shore things up.

    Yep. Those experts again. Turns out we need them.

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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,989
    It's funny really. Through the statements coming out from the EU its sort of finally dawned on me just what a political entity it had become. It really does act as a federal entity and it will become rapidly more integrated as a result of Brexit. We were never comfortable with that.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
    Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
    When the UK leaves, I believe Spain becomes a net donor to the EU.
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Can you imagine the calls Cameron is taking from Hezza and Clarke and Merkel today? I bet the air is blue (actually he may have taken the phone off the hook by now, lol)

    Nobody purrrrrrrrrrrrrrrring down the phone today methinks. :smiley:

    Phone of the hook, and into his third hour of playing video games on his iPad.
    Just another day's chillaxing?

    So do we think now it's over people will start speaking out about how much Downing St. was orchestrating Project Fear (example, Barry saying "back of the queue" rather than "back of the line" always seemed suspicious)
    Cameron can always invite Obama for a round of golf at Turnberry.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140

    Thrak said:

    All those people saying Carney was toast, his public and behind the scenes work appears to have, at least temporarily, helped shore things up.

    Yep. Those experts again. Turns out we need them.

    Does kind of make a mockery of Osborne saying there were no contingency plans for Brexit.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    LMAO. Caroline Flint saying "Jeremy should've been more positive about the EU".

    These people can't have it both ways, they can't criticise Corbyn for not being flexible enough to public opinion generally AND that he should've been more nthusiastic about the EU in defiance of public opinion
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784

    kle4 said:

    If I had to bet, I would actually suggest there will not be other countries leaving the EU. The EU is great at fudging solutions - not that these solve problems long term - when their backs are really to the wall. Clearly many leavers didn't even think leave would win, and I doubt the EU did too. Now they know it has happened here and can happen elsewhere, they will pull out the stops to prevent this becoming a trend.

    It is a glorious tragedy that it may be that it was simply not possible to get a more flexible EU such as even many Leavers wanted, until someone, in this case us, actually Left.

    Ireland and Denmark only joined the EU on our coat-tails. It's not a stretch to see them follow us out too.

    Ireland seems like it would do so very unwillingly, feels like at the least cordial relations might take a bit. They'd see us a giant diseased ape living in their house that keeps ruining things for anyone they bring home, but they can't afford the rent on any other place.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Jason said:

    If this doesn't sum up the mentality of the Remainers (or some of them), then nothing does -

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    Astonishing. If Remain had won today, I would have been gutted. However, I would have ACCEPTED it. These nutters do not even want a democracy, let alone public referenda.

    Why don't they just cut to the chase?

    "Jo Cox was for Remain, so we should scrap the result in her memory..."

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080

    maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
    Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
    When the UK leaves, I believe Spain becomes a net donor to the EU.
    Wonder how long they'll be able to keep that up for...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784

    AnneJGP said:

    They've made their bed, they're going to have to lie on it.

    Sadly, so are the rest of us.

    I mean no disrespect, Alastair, but the boot is rather on the other foot. The cover has been taken off the bed that the powerful made for the weak in our society to lie on - and released a swarm of biting insects.

    As far as I can see the powerful are still in charge. And one extremely privileged man is likely to be replaced as PM by another extremely privileged man. Political parties will still be able to govern on 37% of the vote and will still be able to ignore the wishes, needs and aspirations of many of those who voted to Leave. So what exactly has changed, except that we are gong to get a regime change within the establishment?

    This, at least, is perfectly true. People railing against elites can be pleased at kicking euro-elites, but ours are the same.
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    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Thrak said:

    All those people saying Carney was toast, his public and behind the scenes work appears to have, at least temporarily, helped shore things up.

    That's true.
    So Osborne did have a Brexit contingency plan, after all?

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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,140
    GIN1138 said:

    maaarsh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Omnium said:

    it's outrageous that the BBC (or anyone else) ran the Morgan Stanley story without (apparently) asking the firm.

    It's almost as if certain areas of the media are trying to talk down the stock market so they can make a story out of it. Shocking.
    Not working, the FTSE is now down less than 2.5%. Even accounting for Forex the Spanish market has been harder hit than ours, which seems strange given what a strong position the EU is in to dictate terms to us, or so I am told.
    When the UK leaves, I believe Spain becomes a net donor to the EU.
    Wonder how long they'll be able to keep that up for...
    Don't worry, a tax on non-Spanish residents ought to cover it ;)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 24,015

    Thrak said:

    All those people saying Carney was toast, his public and behind the scenes work appears to have, at least temporarily, helped shore things up.

    Yep. Those experts again. Turns out we need them.

    The experts spinners lost to the amateurs
    The expert pollsters called it wrong
    The City experts cost their customers billions

    The problem with most experts is it appears they arent
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    Danny565 said:

    LMAO. Caroline Flint saying "Jeremy should've been more positive about the EU".

    These people can't have it both ways, they can't criticise Corbyn for not being flexible enough to public opinion generally AND that he should've been more nthusiastic about the EU in defiance of public opinion

    Also "Corbyn is a disaster as no one will listen to him" "Corbyn could have single handedly convinced millions to vote Remain"
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    There was no gender gap: both men and women voted 52/48.

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I'm surprised that we're leaving the EU. I don't think I voted Leave hoping to claim the moral high ground (we wuz robbed!) in the event of Bremain.

    I just assumed that with the full weight of the government behind it, the swingback to the status quo would see them over the line. I officially conceded to Remain last Tuesday, what a tipster am I.

    Do I feel buyer's remorse? Yes, I probably do - but I do whenever I make a big decision. It's very natural, surely? Will it last? Hard to tell.

    Obviously, almost half the electorate are feeling disappointed, angry and disenfranchised. While I dislike his precise wording, I do take Mr Meeks' point. London <3 the EU. I generally don't like doing things that mean I'm heaped with opprobrium. So, yeah, regrets, I have a few etc.

    From here on in, we cannot run a control with some virtual UK that voted to Remain. We're now entering the Phony War. In the EU, playing by EU rules, but somehow already drifting away. My best guess is that we'll delay article 50 until just after the French elections. But given my track record, don't take my word for it :).
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741
    Nigel Farage: £350m NHS pledge 'a mistake'
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36624697
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    OllyT said:

    Buyer's Remorse. Lol.
    A vintage crop of sour grapes.

    It's too early to be drawing any conclusions in either direction. Let's see where we are in a year's time, the electorate are extremely fickle, especially if they don't get the "stuff" they think they have been promised. Leave have won but now they have to put their money where their mouths are. It won't be easy, enjoy the moment.
    It's rare for nations to regret their liberation from their oppressors. Maybe some third world hell holes have imperial nostalgia but civilized democracies don't.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,949

    kle4 said:

    If I had to bet, I would actually suggest there will not be other countries leaving the EU. The EU is great at fudging solutions - not that these solve problems long term - when their backs are really to the wall. Clearly many leavers didn't even think leave would win, and I doubt the EU did too. Now they know it has happened here and can happen elsewhere, they will pull out the stops to prevent this becoming a trend.

    It is a glorious tragedy that it may be that it was simply not possible to get a more flexible EU such as even many Leavers wanted, until someone, in this case us, actually Left.

    Ireland and Denmark only joined the EU on our coat-tails. It's not a stretch to see them follow us out too.

    For different reasons I think neither is likely. Economically, Denmark is an extension of Germany. That is not a disparaging remark about a proudly independent country that has suffered from its bigger neighbour on occasion. Ireland does too well from business opportunities coming from a smart and flexible member of the EU and the Eurozone. It's going to pick up a chunk of the business fleeing from the City of London.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    edited June 2016
    Danny565 said:

    LMAO. Caroline Flint saying "Jeremy should've been more positive about the EU".

    These people can't have it both ways, they can't criticise Corbyn for not being flexible enough to public opinion generally AND that he should've been more nthusiastic about the EU in defiance of public opinion

    I don't know why the PLP is blaming Jezza... I'm not his greatest fan as you know, but he's not responsible for this fiasco.

    Whats happened with Labour's northern heartlands has been brewing for years. Mrs Duffy gave them a big warning of what was around the corner in 2010.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,784
    RobD said:

    Thrak said:

    All those people saying Carney was toast, his public and behind the scenes work appears to have, at least temporarily, helped shore things up.

    Yep. Those experts again. Turns out we need them.

    Does kind of make a mockery of Osborne saying there were no contingency plans for Brexit.
    That was one of those lies I didn't even understand, it was so unbelievable.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    kle4 said:

    Danny565 said:

    LMAO. Caroline Flint saying "Jeremy should've been more positive about the EU".

    These people can't have it both ways, they can't criticise Corbyn for not being flexible enough to public opinion generally AND that he should've been more nthusiastic about the EU in defiance of public opinion

    Also "Corbyn is a disaster as no one will listen to him" "Corbyn could have single handedly convinced millions to vote Remain"
    As I said earlier, the Blairites are just as ideological as the Corbynites, just about different issues.

    I would rather an ideological approach on austerity and welfare, rather than an ideological approach on Europe which is the Blairites' raison d'etre.
This discussion has been closed.