politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

I think Jezza played a blinder. When General Thornberry and Labour's Lemming Brigade charged to the cliff, calling to their supporters to follow, he hung back a little. "I'll just stay with Captain Mann, he seems to know what he's doing."

A wise general, even if by accident

weejonnie said:

In effect, if the EU had remained a trading block of the richest European countries, mutually co-operating in removing tariffs and encouraging free trade then we would still be in.

But they didn't.

You had the EEC, but you wouldn't let it lie, would you? You wouldn't let it lie....

Danny565 said:

I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.

The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.

They won't need to admit that they made a mistake. They'll just turn on the people who told them it would all be ok.

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.

Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!

As I've suggested before: Rory Stewart. He's a remainer, but he's generally kept his head down and explained his reasons well.

I'm probably wrong though.

David_Evershed said:

Hannan should be offered the Whitney seat for the by-election fight.

Cameron hasn't said he's leaving parliament.

DavidL said:

Lennon said:

Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.

On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')

I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.

God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?

FF43 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Scott_P said:

Fenster said:

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

He wants Free Movement.

The people who voted Out don't

Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.

That's not the EEA. It be an FTA that covers the sectors in this table marked in green (cars, aerospace, food, chemicals and machinery) where we have a trade deficit and most not cover the sectors marked in red or orange (finance, insurance and professional services) where we have a surplus. A trade deal that markedly favours the EU in other words

http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150306_Open_Europe_Brexit_table.png

Why would we sign such a deal?

Lamy: City will lose its Financial Passport to rest of EU. Frankfurt will pick up

peter_from_putney said:

David_Evershed said:

GIN1138 said:

BBC News: EU Official shaking [with rage] when the result came through this morning...

Any pictures or link?

How is it possible to shake with rage as a result of 17 million honest to goodness British citizens having voted in a way which they believe is genuinely best for their country?

Oh, but the temerity. The temerity....of DEMOCRACY! It's just not how EU do things....

Fenster said:

Indigo said:

Fenster said:

The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?

Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

Absolutely, and I hope he's looking forward to the redundancy that he asked of us

Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.

Omnium said:

David_Evershed said:

Hannan should be offered the Whitney seat for the by-election fight.

Cameron hasn't said he's leaving parliament.

He didn't say he'd stand down as PM if he lost either, but here we are.

SNP reporting a surge in membership applications.

DavidL said:

DavidL said:

Lennon said:

Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.

On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')

I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.

God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?

Duchy of Lancaster?

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

The Country was warned by these Companies. It is not revenge it is business

logical_song said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Just heard this rumour in the City: both @BNPParibas and @jpmorgan planning to relocate to Paris #BrexitVote

Oh, and then there is this...

Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.

Well, 'Project Fear' is now redundant, so are we soon going to get 'Project Revenge' - the beastly elite punishing Britain for it's plucky stance for independence.

Do you seriously think that these large companies are interested in taking 'revenge' on anybody. They'll be making hard headed decisions on what they think is best for their companies.

Equally there is a very big difference between saying today 'we're going to see what happens before making any further decisions' and 'screw you - we're leaving'

FF43 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Scott_P said:

Fenster said:

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

He wants Free Movement.

The people who voted Out don't

Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.

That's not the EEA.

Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Listening to Boris and Gove they do not look like they are at ease with the position they are in. The problems labelled 'project fear' are all materialising today and the leavers seem to have no plan of what to do. This is beginning to look far more serious then many acknowledged and I do not see any leader who has the ability and leadership that can deal with this. I wonder if in a few days time many leavers will be having many regrets. I am worried at how this crisis will pan out

I agree. Maybe there will be some kind of step back in a few months time. Maybe after a GE.

Frankfurt now rubbing its hands with glee as it becomes the new main financial centre in EU.

DavidL said:

Lennon said:

Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.

On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')

I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.

Agreed, but is there an unknown gem in there somewhere, who is preferably liked and respected on both sided of the great divide?

Scott_P said:

Oh FFS

@PaulBrandITV: Looks like we'll have a parliamentary debate on a second EU referendum then. #neverendum #neverendumstory https://t.co/DR8zw63xSn

On the petition itself, it's not in itself a terrible idea for a referendum to be decided by a bit more than 50% +1 vote (turnout limit they suggest way too high though) - but stable doors, horses bolted and all that, too late to rerun on new rules.

Chelyabinsk said:

FF43 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Scott_P said:

Fenster said:

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

He wants Free Movement.

The people who voted Out don't

Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.

That's not the EEA.

Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas in which Britain should seek to re-establish control?

Because he's an opportunistic professional politician.

logical_song said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_P said:

@chrisshipitv: Just heard this rumour in the City: both @BNPParibas and @jpmorgan planning to relocate to Paris #BrexitVote

Oh, and then there is this...

Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.

Well, 'Project Fear' is now redundant, so are we soon going to get 'Project Revenge' - the beastly elite punishing Britain for it's plucky stance for independence.

Do you seriously think that these large companies are interested in taking 'revenge' on anybody. They'll be making hard headed decisions on what they think is best for their companies.

weve been telling you that all this campaign, it's why they've prgressively wound down their UK operations and see us simply as a sales outlet. If they contribute nothing why should they have the benefits of our economy ?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

The Country was warned by these Companies. It is not revenge it is business

they haven't gone yet.

Danny565 said:

I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.

The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.

The psychology of this has been well documented. People refuse to accept they were wrong even when faced with evidence. Instead a different justification is switched to. Humans are narcissists.

David_Evershed said:

Hannan should be offered the Whitney seat for the by-election fight.

Like that thinking! Not sure how long Dave will stay around though, he's only 50 and might fancy a few years on the back benches to annoy the Leavers in Parliament!

edmundintokyo said:

Danny565 said:

I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.

The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.

They don't need to admit the got the decision wrong, they just correct their recollections of how they voted.

And only 1% of the population would have to get such remorse. this wasn't 55:45

Spanish stockmarket down 12.5%

Italian market down 10.5%

French market down 8.5%

German market down 7.0%

UK market down 4.0%

I bet the continentals wish they had offered more concessions in the renegotiation now.

Fenster said:

If the EU treats the UK with spite and vengeance then all it will do is stiffen the resolve of the British people. It would be a ridiculous thing to do because it would prove the 'anti democratic' slurs were true.

It'll be interesting to see if the EU brings in its beloved Tobin Tax now we are gone.

I bet they won't.

That's a really great question. I'd bet they won't too.

Alanbrooke said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

The Country was warned by these Companies. It is not revenge it is business

they haven't gone yet.

And lets hope they don't but I am concerned that the new cabinet won't be in place until October as the economy drifts or worse

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

DavidL said:

DavidL said:

Lennon said:

Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.

On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')

I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.

God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?

Cabinet office.

Maybe ambassador to someone we are really seriously unlikely to go to war with, no matter what he does.

Governor of the South Sandwich Islands? Can't see the penguins getting too rebellious no matter what...

JosiasJessop said:

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.

Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!

As I've suggested before: Rory Stewart. He's a remainer, but he's generally kept his head down and explained his reasons well.

I'm probably wrong though.

His TV series, founded on the thesis that Hadrians wall created an artificial border followed by a potted history of a dozen kingdoms that straddled the wall without any issue, made me doubt his acumen.

Also a Scottish leader may well become rapidly untenable.

peter_from_putney said:

DavidL said:

Lennon said:

Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.

On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')

I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.

Agreed, but is there an unknown gem in there somewhere, who is preferably liked and respected on both sided of the great divide?

Well if Ruth was in Parliament...but she is not and having her and Boris in the same cabinet just might get complicated.

Jason said:

I think it's quite clear from what I've read here and the dreadful tw@tter that the Remainers are PRAYING for a recession so that they can say 'told you'. Worse sour grapes than the general election.

Miles worse, this is Bush '04 level whinging.

Chameleon said:

I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.

That's karma, Chameleon.

Chelyabinsk said:

FF43 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Scott_P said:

Fenster said:

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

He wants Free Movement.

The people who voted Out don't

Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.

That's not the EEA.

Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?

He doesn't want freedom of movement, so that rules out membership of the EU (which I think Hannan was talking about retaining) as well as membership of the EEA. So you are left with a Korean style Free Trade Agreement

Danny565 said:

I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.

The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.

Yeah.

But joining the EEA or similar might be a way to offer reassurance without actually admitting a mistake. That's what former Remainers need to be focused on promoting.

(Though Labour remainers are more interested in knifing Corbyn, it seems)

FF43 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

FF43 said:

Chelyabinsk said:

Scott_P said:

Fenster said:

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

He wants Free Movement.

The people who voted Out don't

Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.

That's not the EEA.

Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?

He doesn't want freedom of movement

Thank you.

peter_from_putney said:

Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.

Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!

Grayling.

matt said:

brokenwheel said:

matt said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

You say revenge. They say rational business decision based on risk and uncertainty.

I say they don't want to reward their client states for going against them, because they know it'll spread.

They don't own us.

So Siemens is no more than a policy arm of the German government. Ok.

actually that's got more truth in it than you might think

A reminder for those entering via vanillaforums who may not see all the way to the bottom of a header (or the earlier mentions), a donate button to help support site infrastructure is up if anyone feels so inclined following monetary success last night.

David_Evershed said:

Spanish stockmarket down 12.5%

Italian market down 10.5%

French market down 8.5%

German market down 7.0%

UK market down 4.0%

I bet the continentals wish they had offered more concessions in the renegotiation now.

If you're going to make that comparison you need to use a single currency: Most of the UK stock market decline is in the drop in value of the token it's denominated in.

But no, there's nothing the rest of the EU could reasonably offered Britain that would have swung enough voters to change the outcome. I mean, they could have said Britain would have a veto on Turkish membership, but it already has one.

matt said:

brokenwheel said:

matt said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

You say revenge. They say rational business decision based on risk and uncertainty.

I say they don't want to reward their client states for going against them, because they know it'll spread.

They don't own us.

So Siemens is no more than a policy arm of the German government. Ok.

Quite the opposite actually...

That's your globalisation.

Alanbrooke said:

Thrak said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

Just economics. You know, what those experts who were ignored mentioned a few times.

EXPERTS ARRRGH !!!!!!!

The experts in the ad and spin world were assured us they would crush Leave - They didn't
The experts in polling called it for Remain by some margin - totally wrong
The experts in the City have just lost billions of investors money this week when they got it wrong

Experts they know bugger all frankly.

Quite. The FTSE is now back up to the level it was about a week ago. This is the end of the world? It seems somewhat quiet.

JosiasJessop said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarkHopkins said:

Scott_P said:

@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45

The revenge begins.

remove his train franchises then. Bombardier in Derby will be delighted with the business

I really doubt Bombardier in Derby have the capacity. They've just won an order for about 100 new EMU carriages, and from my admittedly flawed memory turned down a large contract last year (or the year before) as they were too busy.

According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows:
Bombardier : 886
Siemens : 1,440
Hitachi : 893
CAF : 75

New orders in 2016 have been:
CAF : 407
Bombardier : 92
Hitachi : 95

I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.

Short term perhaps, but if Siemens are saying theyre pulling out its an opportunity for those who want to stay to get more business

when that fact registers with Siemens they;ll stop talking nonsense.

Scenario:
Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.

Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.

Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.

rottenborough said:

LibDemNewswire @LibDemNewswire
Tim Farron has broken the news that 1,000 people have joined Lib Dems already today.

Time for a resurrection?

Who are the Lib Dems?

Sandpit said:

Fenster said:

Indigo said:

Fenster said:

The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?

Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.

I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

Absolutely, and I hope he's looking forward to the redundancy that he asked of us

Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.

SJW? Explain?

Scott_P said:

@BBC_Joe_Lynam: Morgan Stanley says it's begun a process to relocate 2,000 key Investment banking staff from London to either Dublin or Frankfurt

Any calculations floating around on the effect on Exchequer of losing City revenues like this?

RochdalePioneers said:

S
Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.

Probable

RochdalePioneers said:

Scenario:
Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.

.

Nope. It'll change after we leave, or too late to stop it, not before, and Boris or others will not be given an offer even if they wanted to reconsider

RochdalePioneers said:

Scenario:
Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.

Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.

Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.

Is that a scenario or a plan? Leave has been missing a plan from the start and it is getting rather urgent.