Ruth about to respond to Nicola - lets hope she is more measured than Villiers et al !!
The Ruth masterstroke would be reluctantly accept independence, as a price worth paying to stay in the EU.
Won't happen though.
It would be Ruth's destruction - she just got the Copns best result ever on an absolute No Second Indy Ref under any circumstances platform - the bul of Scotland's 38% Leave voters will be Conservative voters.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
I think the EU will be playing good cop/bad cop over the next few months.
On the one hand, the EU won't want anyone else to leave and to stabilise the whole Union. On the other, they will want to be practical and create a stable long-term deal for the UK that allows strong trading links and close partnership with the EU on a number of issues to continue.
Yes. We'll end up with something that looks rather like the EEA, although it might not be called that. Free movement might even continue exist in theory, but in practice it will be curtailed substantially by the UK being allowed to discriminate with regard to benefits and welfare payments, charges for healthcare and education etc.
I see - and presumaby therefore Brits living in EU countries woud have simiar charges imposed on them . So pensioners on limited incomes - amybe not in good heath to pay for health services in France, Spain, etc - What coud possibly go wrong?
@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt
Well that's preposterous surely from a legal standing? Although it might as well be the referendum is not binding on our government, so it cannot possibly act as a legal declaration
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Do either of you get the impression that Cameron's renegotiation showed a desire to have more states in the EU with special privileges? Do you think the EU is more or less likely to tolerate the possession of these privileges by a net contributor of forty years standing, than it is to grant them to a newly-joining state with a £8bn hole in its budget?
Tbh I don't understand your point. The UK is out of the EU. It's over. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, it needs to get its budget deficit down. It would be painful. I voted No in 2014 because genuinely it wasn't in Scotland's interest to be independent. I also voted Remain in 2016 for exactly the same reasons. So I (genuinely) accept the decision to leave the EU even though I think it a profoundly foolish one. Then someone comes along and says how about independence for Scotland? I'm not going to think it is any smarter a second time round but bear in mind I have already accepted one stupid decision.
After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.
Asking the question again is legitimate if circumstances have dramatically changed, and for Scotland I think that is pretty much undeniable (depending a little on the exit terms the UK gets, of course)
The question is whether the fundamentals that drove the vote last time, other than the EU dimension, have changed. Hence Sturgeon is right to take her time. I read her statement today as a) putting the Indy Q back on the table so people start to think about it, and b) as a bid for a seat around whatever table decides how the UK takes things forward.
@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt
Given that the HoC has the right to ignore the referendum result, that's a constitutionally interesting approach.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?
What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.
The same problem that moved the UK customs checks to Calais. Migrants being turned back at the UK border, and the Chunnel (owned by the french state?) having to pick up the bill.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.
OK. Didn't see that.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Didn't duty free amount to a bottle and a half of wine or half a bottle of spirits, maximum, before the EU?
I've got the horrible feeling that Boris, like a few Leavers on here, really just wanted a narrow Remain. It would allow a few quick fixes (zap Dave) without any lasting damage. Such thinking has proved a touch dangerous.
Someone posted elsewhere that what Boris really wanted was the status quo, just with him in Downing Street instead of Cameron.
And now he will inherit chaos beyond his wildest imaginings.
@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt
Given that the HoC has the right to ignore the referendum result, that's a constitutionally interesting approach.
Hmm. But the head of the UK Government has said it won't be ignored (and it can hardly suggest otherwise).
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.
OK. Didn't see that.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.
I've got the horrible feeling that Boris, like a few Leavers on here, really just wanted a narrow Remain. It would allow a few quick fixes (zap Dave) without any lasting damage. Such thinking has proved a touch dangerous.
Someone posted elsewhere that what Boris really wanted was the status quo, just with him in Downing Street instead of Cameron.
And now he will inherit chaos beyond his wildest imaginings.
Be careful what you wish for...
Always was a little suspicious of boris.. hmm
Enough coverage for me. What a weird time to be alive.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?
What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.
There were camps in Calais before the treaty, though. This is a deal which works for both sides.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.
OK. Didn't see that.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Those older voters voted "in" back in 1975, when they were young and gullible too.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?
What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.
The same problem that moved the UK customs checks to Calais. Migrants being turned back at the UK border, and the Chunnel (owned by the french state?) having to pick up the bill.
They aren't going to take them back, either we disperse them to centres or we get migrant camps in Dover.
If the Scots want another referendum then I guess its their right. I quibble a little with the grounds - they voted to be part of the UK, and now wish to pick and choose whether they accept the results of being in that union.
I think it would be an economic disaster for them. The EU may not exist in two years anyway.
The idea of any London separatism is preposterous in my view. I can't imagine Khan would say anything like that directly.
We are in the period of peak pain for people who truly believe that the EU is the only viable way forward.
However, what Scottish and London separatist responses are saying is that they believe their own majority votes count for more than those of the rest of England & Wales.
Now - why not acknowledge it - since England & Wales probably couldn't survive without London, they are also saying they don't care about England & Wales.
Sadly, this is a prime driver of the high Leave vote. E&W has long been aware (as has Scotland) that London doesn't care about the country of which it is the capital. That awareness has mostly been focussed on Westminster but the distinction is hard to spot from outside.
Can we find a different approach? London (and indeed Scotland) wants to stay in the EU. So what can they do to help heal the wounds that E&W has suffered over decades at the hands of people who don't care about them, which has resulted in such a massive disconnect between perceived interests?
London is a city of pragmatists. I'm a Londoner, and I would say that many Londoners voted the way they did because of economic fears. Anyone that owns a home here has an enormous economic interest in not rocking the apple-cart. Moreover the city is a wonderful melting pot of all sorts of interests and cultures - the xenophobia of UKIP at their worst has been felt quite deeply.
If you take away the economic fear, and take away the nervousness about how the UK deals with people other than the indigenous then London would be far closer to the England and Wales view.
So knuckling down and making the best of where we find ourselves, and also making sure that the 'we' means all of us who are here and call the UK our home will address the London disconnect. With a bit of luck it will also create growth and employment in the areas of the UK that voted out.
I've no idea how you solve the Scottish issue - but independence now is a disaster for them.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.
OK. Didn't see that.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.
At any national referendum you should get a number of votes equal to max(age-average_life_expectancy,1)
Those who live with the decision longest get the most say.
@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt
Given that the HoC has the right to ignore the referendum result, that's a constitutionally interesting approach.
Hmm. But the head of the UK Government has said it won't be ignored (and it can hardly suggest otherwise).
No, but how the government approaches the negotiations has not been agreed, so the ref on its own woukd never be enough to trigger something, even though it's not ignored either.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Didn't duty free amount to a bottle and a half of wine or half a bottle of spirits, maximum, before the EU?
Just one example of the millions of tons of minor regulations and so forth we will have to sort out.
Brexit will tie almost all government activity for two years or more. Meanwhile, real problems continue unsolved.
Ruth about to respond to Nicola - lets hope she is more measured than Villiers et al !!
The Ruth masterstroke would be reluctantly accept independence, as a price worth paying to stay in the EU.
Won't happen though.
It would be Ruth's destruction - she just got the Copns best result ever on an absolute No Second Indy Ref under any circumstances platform - the bul of Scotland's 38% Leave voters will be Conservative voters.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.
OK. Didn't see that.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.
Young people dragged out of Glasto or the pub and frogmarched to the polling booths whilst being force fed enough coffee to sober them up so they can vote ? It's a view I suppose.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.
OK. Didn't see that.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.
Young people dragged out of Glasto or the pub and frogmarched to the polling booths whilst being force fed enough coffee to sober them up so they can vote ? It's a view I suppose.
I didn't say I shared it - if young people do t vote it's their own faults.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
I've got the horrible feeling that Boris, like a few Leavers on here, really just wanted a narrow Remain. It would allow a few quick fixes (zap Dave) without any lasting damage. Such thinking has proved a touch dangerous.
My impression is that many thousands, even millions, of Leavers wanted that result, and thought they would get it. There is a notable lack of celebrating going on.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
The circumstances of an exit from the EU are different.
If the EU could manage to keep Scotland in the EU as an independent state it would send the message to other members: Leave the EU and your country will not survive in the same form.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Didn't duty free amount to a bottle and a half of wine or half a bottle of spirits, maximum, before the EU?
Just one example of the millions of tons of minor regulations and so forth we will have to sort out.
Brexit will tie almost all government activity for two years or more. Meanwhile, real problems continue unsolved.
Well it's a good job the Queens speech was almost entirely bereft of actual legislation then .
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
I suggest the pros and cons for the Spanish could be finely balanced, since Spain both wants and needs that the EU doesn't fall apart.
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
The circumstances of an exit from the EU are different.
If the EU could manage to keep Scotland in the EU as an independent state it would send the message to other members: Leave the EU and your country will not survive in the same form.
Exactly – it's the reverse of the Cataluna example.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
One good thing about this referendum from a Labour point of view is that there has been quite a redistribution of wealth from the rich to the poor via Betfair.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?
What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.
The same problem that moved the UK customs checks to Calais. Migrants being turned back at the UK border, and the Chunnel (owned by the french state?) having to pick up the bill.
They aren't going to take them back, either we disperse them to centres or we get migrant camps in Dover.
I cannot imagine that the French government wants to manufacture another issue for themselves.
Britain leaving the EU is already a problem to be addressed. Political agitation for a french referendum will be increasing. The cross-mediterrean migrant crisis is on-going. Euro-crisis is on-going. The french presidential elections are due in May 2017.
I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?
What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.
The same problem that moved the UK customs checks to Calais. Migrants being turned back at the UK border, and the Chunnel (owned by the french state?) having to pick up the bill.
They aren't going to take them back, either we disperse them to centres or we get migrant camps in Dover.
Of course they are, in the same way as other countries will take back the immigrants that France rejects at the border, and all other countries go across pretty much the whole world.
My impression is that many thousands, even millions, of Leavers wanted that result, and thought they would get it. There is a notable lack of celebrating going on.
I am seeing quite a lot of "I voted Leave, but now it's happened I wish I hadn't"
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
I suggest the pros and cons for the Spanish could be finely balanced, since Spain both wants and needs that the EU doesn't fall apart.
It's possible, but again, I'm not sure how well that is going to be received by the other smaller nations, given our vetoes, opt-outs and rebate.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.
I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.
The circumstances of an exit from the EU are different.
If the EU could manage to keep Scotland in the EU as an independent state it would send the message to other members: Leave the EU and your country will not survive in the same form.
I think the target of any EU messaging needs to be the populations, not the governments. So people realise there is a personal cost to going out of the EU and will vote accordingly. This message doesn't do that.
My impression is that many thousands, even millions, of Leavers wanted that result, and thought they would get it. There is a notable lack of celebrating going on.
I am seeing quite a lot of "I voted Leave, but now it's happened I wish I hadn't"
If only there was a pithy phrase for that...
I'm thiking of selling t-Shirts with
"I'm not to Blame I Voted Remain"
with some kind of snazzy logo. Shall I put you down for 100?
After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.
The problem Scotland has is being railroaded into a referendum without the budgetary changes required for Scotland to manage independence... I'm sure Sturgeon knows this or will remember it soon enough...
Time for sleep. Not an encouraging start to the new era, to put it lightly, but then chaos was bound to happen in the aftermath.
Personally I'd be perfectly happy for the EU to make a new offer and to be asked again, assessing if it was any good, but as we were told out means out, and they won't make an offer and our government wouldn't accept it. So we'll have to hope the early signs are not reflective of how things will carry on.
It will be a heavy burden if all goes to crap and i made the wrong decision, even knowing the alternative was poor. Why oh why couldn't associate membership have been up for grabs? It seems like it woukd suit everyone - everyone within the Eu, but only as much as comfortable with, able to be encouraged to upgrade.
Didn't Farage used to be some sort of financial trader? And didn't Farage concede defeat shortly before polls closed last night?
Indeed one of the remarkable things last night was that the meme of an impending remain win (which I fell for) was so strong that between 9pm and 11pm all of Farage, Boris, Villiers and Carswell (separately) conceded that Remain was going to win!
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Looking on the bright side, the EU gets to develop as it sees fit without the British bitching and moaning and trying to prevent it becoming more democratic, then young British people can take another look at it in 15 years and make an informed decision about whether it's something they want to be part of.
That said, Brexit is going to cost a lot, and this money needs to come out of these people's pensions.
I suspect sovereignty will be untouched but it will affect freedom of movement and trade between Spain and Gibraltar. Spain will now have a free hand in cracking down on trade/smuggling.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
Um, the majority in Scotland don't want to be Independent, there was a vote if you recall. They may feel differently now, granted. the argument is over how often is reasonable to ask. 5 years into a rocky independence would it be too soon to ask the uk to try rejoining the EU? Probably.
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
They'll get their second referendum in Scotland. And they'll lose. To Project Fear. Real fear not some 'there'll be war, zombie apocalypse and no inter-railing' horseshit of the Brexit campaign. The Remain camp lost because their scaremongering was simply not credible. The Sindy2 scaremongering will be. Very real.
Project Fear has already had one campaign to fine-tune its message specifically for Scotland. There have also been two campaigns in which Project Fear lost a massive lead, so hopefully third time round it will be accompanied by Project Love-bomb.
MikeK just contacted me (he's pleased with the vote, as you may've gathered), and is keen to be un-banned to have his say [some clarity on the timing or temporary/permanent nature of the ban would be welcomed].
Also, per this tweet, the three main European political groupings appealing to stop faffing around and trigger Article 50 already.
Not up to them.
This is of course true, although in the meantime the old anti-EU fantasy about all the other countries ganging up on Britain in QMV votes may finally turn into reality...
Calling people who disagree with you "the great unwashed" may be some of the reason seventeen million voted against you.
I accept that you're sore. I was disappointed last night when Leave hit 7/1 with the bookies. I assumed it was all over, but if it's the will of the people, washed or unwashed, you have to accept it.
We'll be able to make our own rules. If we want to increase immigration we can - subject to electoral reality. Trust your own people. It's not as if Italy has clean hands when it comes to Fascism.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
Um, the majority in Scotland don't want to be Independent, there was a vote if you recall. They may feel differently now, the argument is over how often is reasonable to ask.
I don't see why it's unreasonable to say they should be asked again when there's been such a significant change.
I wouldn't necessarily expect them to actually vote for independence (IIRC, test polls in the last few weeks showed Scotland would still stay in the union even in the hypothetical Brexit scenario) but they have a perfectly good case to have another indyref.
I suspect sovereignty will be untouched but it will affect freedom of movement and trade between Spain and Gibraltar. Spain will now have a free hand in cracking down on trade/smuggling.
Didn't Farage used to be some sort of financial trader? And didn't Farage concede defeat shortly before polls closed last night?
Indeed one of the remarkable things last night was that the meme of an impending remain win (which I fell for) was so strong that between 9pm and 11pm all of Farage, Boris, Villiers and Carswell (separately) conceded that Remain was going to win!
Farage was a commodities trader on the London Metals Exchange and then several other commodities brokerages.
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
France are a net CAP contributor.
And I suspect that there will be several countries who will find that instead of being net recipients they will become net donors. The people won't like that.
FTSE holding steady at 6060. It's not been that low since, umm, last week.
The £ isn't looking so happy at $1.36 and a bit. Almost unbelievable that at 9pm yesterday it was $1.50.
One wonders how much coordinated central bank support there is behind the curtain. That uncontrolled freefall hasn't happened doesn't mean that it could not have done.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
Um, the majority in Scotland don't want to be Independent, there was a vote if you recall. They may feel differently now, granted. the argument is over how often is reasonable to ask. 5 years into a rocky independence would it be too soon to ask the uk to try rejoining the EU? Probably.
Yes I noticed that. What I was observing was, should they hold another referendum and decide that they do want to leave after all it would be intellectually incoherent to object to this given the public position the government takes on, inter alia, The Falklands and Northern Ireland.
Polly Toynbee @pollytoynbee 2m2 minutes ago If Tories need someone sane to challenge Boris, just watch Anna Soubry on fire today
? Anna Soubry? Not going to happen.
I can't see the Conservative party electorate looking for a candidate to successfully lead exit negotiations and alighting on the person who's spent all morning on national TV chelping about how terrible it all is, and why didn't the ghastly public listen to her?
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
France are a net CAP contributor.
And I suspect that there will be several countries who will find that instead of being net recipients they will become net donors. The people won't like that.
Dutch referendum next too. They're another donor state.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Looking on the bright side, the EU gets to develop as it sees fit without the British bitching and moaning and trying to prevent it becoming more democratic, then young British people can take another look at it in 15 years and make an informed decision about whether it's something they want to be part of.
That said, Brexit is going to cost a lot, and this money needs to come out of these people's pensions.
"the British .....trying to prevent becoming more democratic....." You are of course joking.
The PLP need to understand three things: 1. Leave won because Labour voters supported Leave in large numbers 2. MPs can just as easily be faced with a motion of no confidence in them by their CLPs 3. All of them will face a confidence motion by their electorate in the near future. Will be entertaining to see right wing MPs telling their own voters how they are Wrong and Stupid and probably Racist so vote for me please
Comments
However, it is a gift that SLab have to offer.
I thought it was strange enough when I agreed with SouthamObserver and Roger, but now I am siding with TUD
The kaleidoscope is still being shaken...
The question is whether the fundamentals that drove the vote last time, other than the EU dimension, have changed. Hence Sturgeon is right to take her time. I read her statement today as a) putting the Indy Q back on the table so people start to think about it, and b) as a bid for a seat around whatever table decides how the UK takes things forward.
I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
And now he will inherit chaos beyond his wildest imaginings.
Be careful what you wish for...
Do they want Nigel Farage PM?
I feared the result of Remain 51% in terms of UKIP surge but Con Leave leadership are trying to get the worst of both worlds.
Strange dayz
Enough coverage for me. What a weird time to be alive.
If you take away the economic fear, and take away the nervousness about how the UK deals with people other than the indigenous then London would be far closer to the England and Wales view.
So knuckling down and making the best of where we find ourselves, and also making sure that the 'we' means all of us who are here and call the UK our home will address the London disconnect. With a bit of luck it will also create growth and employment in the areas of the UK that voted out.
I've no idea how you solve the Scottish issue - but independence now is a disaster for them.
Those who live with the decision longest get the most say.
Brexit will tie almost all government activity for two years or more. Meanwhile, real problems continue unsolved.
Very true.
https://twitter.com/dannydorling/status/746100749478789120?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
If the EU could manage to keep Scotland in the EU as an independent state it would send the message to other members: Leave the EU and your country will not survive in the same form.
Britain leaving the EU is already a problem to be addressed.
Political agitation for a french referendum will be increasing.
The cross-mediterrean migrant crisis is on-going.
Euro-crisis is on-going.
The french presidential elections are due in May 2017.
If only there was a pithy phrase for that...
The only way around it is a Corbyn resignation. And then what? McDonnell?
Why waste one!
(Just for clarity I have no truck whatsoever with real bullets - Hollywood bullets are fine though)
A bit like divorcing the wife for a mistress, leaving the kids- but still wanting to keep your shagging rights without paying childcare.
"I'm not to Blame
I Voted Remain"
with some kind of snazzy logo. Shall I put you down for 100?
Personally I'd be perfectly happy for the EU to make a new offer and to be asked again, assessing if it was any good, but as we were told out means out, and they won't make an offer and our government wouldn't accept it. So we'll have to hope the early signs are not reflective of how things will carry on.
It will be a heavy burden if all goes to crap and i made the wrong decision, even knowing the alternative was poor. Why oh why couldn't associate membership have been up for grabs? It seems like it woukd suit everyone - everyone within the Eu, but only as much as comfortable with, able to be encouraged to upgrade.
Not up to them.
Polly Toynbee @pollytoynbee 2m2 minutes ago
If Tories need someone sane to challenge Boris, just watch Anna Soubry on fire today
Indeed one of the remarkable things last night was that the meme of an impending remain win (which I fell for) was so strong that between 9pm and 11pm all of Farage, Boris, Villiers and Carswell (separately) conceded that Remain was going to win!
That said, Brexit is going to cost a lot, and this money needs to come out of these people's pensions.
Calling people who disagree with you "the great unwashed" may be some of the reason seventeen million voted against you.
I accept that you're sore. I was disappointed last night when Leave hit 7/1 with the bookies. I assumed it was all over, but if it's the will of the people, washed or unwashed, you have to accept it.
We'll be able to make our own rules. If we want to increase immigration we can - subject to electoral reality. Trust your own people. It's not as if Italy has clean hands when it comes to Fascism.
I wouldn't necessarily expect them to actually vote for independence (IIRC, test polls in the last few weeks showed Scotland would still stay in the union even in the hypothetical Brexit scenario) but they have a perfectly good case to have another indyref.
They'd actually be better with Nicky Morgan.
1. Leave won because Labour voters supported Leave in large numbers
2. MPs can just as easily be faced with a motion of no confidence in them by their CLPs
3. All of them will face a confidence motion by their electorate in the near future. Will be entertaining to see right wing MPs telling their own voters how they are Wrong and Stupid and probably Racist so vote for me please
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth