Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
Um, the majority in Scotland don't want to be Independent, there was a vote if you recall. They may feel differently now, the argument is over how often is reasonable to ask.
I don't see why it's unreasonable to say they should be asked again when there's been such a significant change.
I wouldn't necessarily expect them to actually vote for independence (IIRC, test polls in the last few weeks showed Scotland would still stay in the union even in the hypothetical Brexit scenario) but they have a perfectly good case to have another indyref.
I agree there's been a significant change, it probably is reasonable. But I was replying to an implication the Union case was thin as it went against going with the majority, which is untrue. A majority did vote for remain, and i think a majority woukd now also vote for independence, but there hasn't been a majority vote on the latter. Yet.
Ironically, I think the terrain is perfectly set for a centre-left government to succeed in Britain.
If Labour (or another centre left party) can get a popular, persuasive leader in place and make the case for per-capita wealth and not this ridiculous hamster-wheel GDP wealth, then there is fertile ground for them to succeed quickly.
We've become material rich (smart phones/widescreens/cars/kitchens/overseas holidays) via easy credit, but, we've all become time and security poor. We are eating up the world's resources as an incredible rate of knots, scorching the earth and spending less time doing things of value.
A re-set of the way we all think, with more localised politics and - dare I say it - a BIG society, has to be the most sensible way forward for those of us who care about 'happiness'.
I know this sounds a bit blue-sky-thinking but I'm just throwing it out there. The working classes (far less racist, selfish and bigoted than many will realise) are crying out for an olive branch and if the Labour party gets it shit together, they could be in business.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.
'We' had a referendum? You get to have an opinion on the matter, but not one that anyone in Scotland has to take account of.
"We" in the sense that a majority of the people of Scotland have decided that they are part of the UK demos and hence of the "we".
My personal opinion was - and remains - I'd be sad to see you go, but if that's what you decide then good luck to you and hopefully we can come up with a sensible "win-win" deal and be good neighbours. I don't think anyone in Scotland could reasonably object to Brit with that view (don't forget that my mother's family is Scottish: Graham, Majoribanks, Hamilton-Gordon and Campbell)
It's fair enough that a lot of Labour MPs are not big fans of Corbyn but I hope they aren't deluding themselves that if only they'd had a convincing pro-European leader all those people in their 'heartlands' would have voted for Remain.
After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.
'We' had a referendum? You get to have an opinion on the matter, but not one that anyone in Scotland has to take account of.
"We" in the sense that a majority of the people of Scotland have decided that they are part of the UK demos and hence of the "we".
My personal opinion was - and remains - I'd be sad to see you go, but if that's what you decide then good luck to you and hopefully we can come up with a sensible "win-win" deal and be good neighbours. I don't think anyone in Scotland could reasonably object to Brit with that view (don't forget that my mother's family is Scottish: Graham, Majoribanks, Hamilton-Gordon and Campbell)
"a sensible "win-win" deal "
Hear, hear. Like the EU split, SIndy does not have to be a win-lose battle, where one side gains at the expense of the other. Both sides could end up richer and happier. There can be a win-win.
One wonders how much coordinated central bank support there is behind the curtain. That uncontrolled freefall hasn't happened doesn't mean that it could not have done.
Was thinking that. The £ is only down 4c on where it was 3months ago.
Signing off, at what stage is the right time to judge if a mistake was made? Discouraging start, yes, but too soon to know it was a mistake, particularly if others leave and the eu gets worse. Say a few years, when our performance can be judged and we see if others are still trying to leave?
It's fair enough that a lot of Labour MPs are not big fans of Corbyn but I hope they aren't deluding themselves that if only they'd had a convincing pro-European leader all those people in their 'heartlands' would have voted for Remain.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
As I voted Leave, I am, of course pleased, but would the media please get over themselves.
I think a period of silence from Nigel Farage and all his grinning Praetorian Guard would be very much appreciated. He has totally embarrassed himself. Why any woman would want to join this macho club is beyond me.
I'm not a fan of Boris but his speech was just pitch perfect.
The PLP need to understand three things: 1. Leave won because Labour voters supported Leave in large numbers 2. MPs can just as easily be faced with a motion of no confidence in them by their CLPs 3. All of them will face a confidence motion by their electorate in the near future. Will be entertaining to see right wing MPs telling their own voters how they are Wrong and Stupid and probably Racist so vote for me please
Don't think Dan Jarvis has said being pro Leave makes you wrong or stupid has he?
Labour may well be more neutral in this upcoming indyref2. There is no longer a realistic hope of a recovery there for them, and more importantly, cutting loose Scotland would remove the SNP as a boogeyman against Labour for the next general election.
Fenster - possibly but we still have a substantial budget deficit meaning there isn't a lot of money to go round and you also need a credible vehicle for such a progressive movement. I'm not sure we have one at the moment.
The PLP need to understand three things: 1. Leave won because Labour voters supported Leave in large numbers 2. MPs can just as easily be faced with a motion of no confidence in them by their CLPs 3. All of them will face a confidence motion by their electorate in the near future. Will be entertaining to see right wing MPs telling their own voters how they are Wrong and Stupid and probably Racist so vote for me please
All of those points are correct. But Corbyn isn't just incompetent he's guilty of corporate manslaughter. The country is in a once in a century flux. We need an Opposition leader who is upto it.
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
France are a net CAP contributor.
And I suspect that there will be several countries who will find that instead of being net recipients they will become net donors. The people won't like that.
Dutch referendum next too. They're another donor state.
Will there be an EU for Scotland to flee to I wonder?
It's only easy if you're British. If you're Scottish then rules is rules and nothing is negotiable...
That's the difference between being a net contributor and functional state, versus a net recipient which hasn't been a functional independent state since before the monarch last vetoed a piece of legislation.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
The British Government has been consistent in that respect in Scotland as well.
FTSE holding steady at 6060. It's not been that low since, umm, last week.
The £ isn't looking so happy at $1.36 and a bit. Almost unbelievable that at 9pm yesterday it was $1.50.
One wonders how much coordinated central bank support there is behind the curtain. That uncontrolled freefall hasn't happened doesn't mean that it could not have done.
I think everyone is holding their breath and waiting to see what kind of deal that the new team will come up with. The SNB intervened to weaken CHF against EUR and I expect the BoE may have supported Sterling at 1.20 for a while but people have calmed down and the shock is slowly going away.
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
France are a net CAP contributor.
And I suspect that there will be several countries who will find that instead of being net recipients they will become net donors. The people won't like that.
Dutch referendum next too. They're another donor state.
Will there be an EU for Scotland to flee too I wonder?
In so e form yes. Skepticism is rising, but still peripheral in many, at least to the point of wanting exit. If we do poorly expect a fudged eu to carry on with almost all members.
Signing off, at what stage is the right time to judge if a mistake was made? Discouraging start, yes, but too soon to know it was a mistake, particularly if others leave and the eu gets worse. Say a few years, when our performance can be judged and we see if others are still trying to leave?
Ten years to tell at least.
But hard to see the counterfactual accurately since a post-Brexit EU won't turn out the same way as if we had voted to remain.
What was it Mao said about the success of the French Revolution - too early to tell?
Signing off, at what stage is the right time to judge if a mistake was made? Discouraging start, yes, but too soon to know it was a mistake, particularly if others leave and the eu gets worse. Say a few years, when our performance can be judged and we see if others are still trying to leave?
The time for using the EU as an excuse for our own failures is now over. It's time to take our future on our own shoulders and make the country better. (*)
However I rather fear that many people who wrongly put the failures of the country onto the EU will be looking for another group to blame. Probably immigrants (again), but I hope not.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
The British Government has been consistent in that respect in Scotland as well.
But repeat votes is just taking the p1ss
The facts have clearly changed. There is no denying that this is a material change.
After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.
Looking on the bright side, the EU gets to develop as it sees fit without the British bitching and moaning and trying to prevent it becoming more democratic, then young British people can take another look at it in 15 years and make an informed decision about whether it's something they want to be part of.
That said, Brexit is going to cost a lot, and this money needs to come out of these people's pensions.
"the British .....trying to prevent becoming more democratic....." You are of course joking.
Absolutely not. The British have been the main impediment to democratizing the EU.
For example, a lot of people across the EU think the President of the European Commission should be elected. They couldn't get all the member states to agree to this so they ended up with a fudge in Lisbon where the member states would "take into account" the results of the European elections when choosing the Commission president. The main political party groupings then went ahead and nominated candidates who appeared in debates, and most of the member states wanted to choose the candidate whose party got the most votes. The main opposition to this was David Cameron, who wanted a back-room stitch-up instead. At one point it looked like he might get his way, but popular opposition, particularly in Germany, wasn't having any of it, and the winner got the job.
The corollary to the British losing that battle is that if the voters don't like Juncker once his first term is up, they can vote for another party and fire him.
My impression is that many thousands, even millions, of Leavers wanted that result, and thought they would get it. There is a notable lack of celebrating going on.
I am seeing quite a lot of "I voted Leave, but now it's happened I wish I hadn't"
I suspect sovereignty will be untouched but it will affect freedom of movement and trade between Spain and Gibraltar. Spain will now have a free hand in cracking down on trade/smuggling.
Didn't Farage used to be some sort of financial trader? And didn't Farage concede defeat shortly before polls closed last night?
Indeed one of the remarkable things last night was that the meme of an impending remain win (which I fell for) was so strong that between 9pm and 11pm all of Farage, Boris, Villiers and Carswell (separately) conceded that Remain was going to win!
Farage conceded several times and then unconceded, didn't he? At the time we didn't know whether old Labour would turn out and, if they did, would they vote the same as new Labour. I suspected that old Labour was being omitted on the polling (or their voice was being downplayed) and once Sunderland (50% Labour) went leave big time I had a pretty good idea - I don't bet, I come here for the banter and chat.
Anyway, life goes on. Hopefully the inter-site feuding will clear and we move onto new territory which are.
Cameron's successor. - I wouldn't start from this point, hard to see the diamond in the rough. Trump or Clinton. Sanders endorsing Clinton may have been prepared for today to take away the probable poll surge for Trump post Brexit.
FWIW - I don't think Corbyn will go - the 'New Labour' may huff and puff but as has already been mentioned the activists would keep him in and no one will want to end their political aspirations that much.
FWIW2 - I don't think Sindy2 will happen either. Instead of project fear, this may happen or that may happen, the Remain campaign has solid facts to present and will surely present them effectively. Whilst there is a significant desire for Scotland to be self-determining there is nothing driving the average Scotsman to leave. Indeed if Brexit is achieved successfully economically there may be a bit more money going round. If.
I am comfortable with the idea of Corbyn going - I never thought he really wanted it anyway.
As a party we are about to disappear down the same black hole the LibDems threw themselves down. The people we need to vote for us to become the government are Leavers. The party apparatchiks are Remainers. They are upset that Corbyn didn't lead enough of a campaign - how else do you explain so many ignorant stupid people voting against their own best interests? We mustn't have put our case clearly and strongly enough, therefore need a new leader.
A leader who can tell Brexit Labour voters that they really ARE stupid for ignoring these facts and IGNORANT for disagreeing with us and if you mention refugees at all then you're just RACIST. Apparently that's what we need.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
I would like to see a lot more of Mr Hannan, but I don't think he naturally fits as a Tory and those differences would become rather more obvious in parliament. As I said I think he is one of the relatively rare right-wing communitarians, which is the label I would put on my own outlook. I dont think those views, emphasising the institutions and common good over state coercion and the power of the market, get much of a following in the Conservative party
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
What is concerning me is the government may feel it needs to offer a sop to Scotland and that will mean protecting the financial sector in Edinburgh. Of course Tory donors will have their say, the CBI chief is already saying that we need business figures to be a big part of the negotiation - so what sort of deal would we get? I don't envisage one favourable to the working man.
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
I am comfortable with the idea of Corbyn going - I never thought he really wanted it anyway.
As a party we are about to disappear down the same black hole the LibDems threw themselves down. The people we need to vote for us to become the government are Leavers. The party apparatchiks are Remainers. They are upset that Corbyn didn't lead enough of a campaign - how else do you explain so many ignorant stupid people voting against their own best interests? We mustn't have put our case clearly and strongly enough, therefore need a new leader.
A leader who can tell Brexit Labour voters that they really ARE stupid for ignoring these facts and IGNORANT for disagreeing with us and if you mention refugees at all then you're just RACIST. Apparently that's what we need.
Spot on. The problem with the current Labour party is that it has too many Emily Thornberrys and not enough John Manns
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth
Soubry dropped to 20 from around 350 (on BF)
How much would you like at 20? I think I can facilitate most requests at that price, although in fairness there are now better offers available on Betfair.
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
Unless that becomes 50% and accompanied by some revolutionary mass action, it will be irrelevant.
Ask me in 6 months I might be a regretter, but Let's try to be optimistic.
They were comprehensively lied to by a very slick Leave campaign; they ignored the somewhat true warnings of the Remain campaign; they almost certainly didn't stop to think about the consequences of their decision.
But you know what? It doesn't matter. We are where are.
I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.
Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?
France are a net CAP contributor.
And I suspect that there will be several countries who will find that instead of being net recipients they will become net donors. The people won't like that.
Dutch referendum next too. They're another donor state.
Will there be an EU for Scotland to flee to I wonder?
There is no independent state of Scotland for the EU to deal with.
Two Labour MPs have submitted a motion of no confidence in Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey confirmed the move in a letter to the chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
The motion has no formal constitutional force but calls for a discussion at their next PLP meeting on Monday.
It will be up to the PLP chairman to decide whether it is debated. If accepted it would be followed by a secret ballot of Labour MPs on Tuesday. -- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777
One wonders how much coordinated central bank support there is behind the curtain. That uncontrolled freefall hasn't happened doesn't mean that it could not have done.
Was thinking that. The £ is only down 4c on where it was 3months ago.
Maybe a bottom of 1.20 USD. Managed over the coming weeks.
So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth
Soubry dropped to 20 from around 350 (on BF)
How much would you like at 20? I think I can facilitate most requests at that price, although in fairness there are now better offers available on Betfair.
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
See my last post. What a self-inflicted disaster.
At what point can MPs stop this madness?
They can't. Or rather any time they want but the public would just punish the. Until we have MPs who will do it anyway.
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth
Soubry dropped to 20 from around 350 (on BF)
How much would you like at 20? I think I can facilitate most requests at that price, although in fairness there are now better offers available on Betfair.
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
as much as Sarah Woollaston?
She'll come out of it with credit. Heart for Brexit but overruled by head once she'd thought about it properly. A lot of Brexit voters will think the same as reality sets in.
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
Well, 'Project Fear' is now redundant, so are we soon going to get 'Project Revenge' - the beastly elite punishing Britain for it's plucky stance for independence.
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
See my last post. What a self-inflicted disaster.
At what point can MPs stop this madness?
It will be services that are more likely to be affected rather than manufacturing. The city is too big and the economy needs to re-balance. It might also help young people afford to live in London.
I wouldn't have wanted it to happen this way but it's pointless to think there won't be some benefits to this.
So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth
Soubry dropped to 20 from around 350 (on BF)
How much would you like at 20? I think I can facilitate most requests at that price, although in fairness there are now better offers available on Betfair.
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
None thanks. I have a small wager at 350, based solely on the fact that anything seems able to happen in politics at the moment, so why not?
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
Labour may well be more neutral in this upcoming indyref2. There is no longer a realistic hope of a recovery there for them, and more importantly, cutting loose Scotland would remove the SNP as a boogeyman against Labour for the next general election.
I have long been saying that for Labour to get power in Westminster again, it needs an independent Scotland...
In effect, if the EU had remained a trading block of the richest European countries, mutually co-operating in removing tariffs and encouraging free trade then we would still be in.
So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth
Soubry dropped to 20 from around 350 (on BF)
How much would you like at 20? I think I can facilitate most requests at that price, although in fairness there are now better offers available on Betfair.
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
as much as Sarah Woollaston?
She'll come out of it with credit. Heart for Brexit but overruled by head once she'd thought about it properly. A lot of Brexit voters will think the same as reality sets in.
Nah, she'll be tainted as careerist flip flopper, the point about principles is sticking with them even when it hurts as leavers like myself may yet find out
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
All that is very sad if it happens. Certainly some 'buyers' remorse likely in the Welsh valleys possibly [pun intended]
I am comfortable with the idea of Corbyn going - I never thought he really wanted it anyway.
As a party we are about to disappear down the same black hole the LibDems threw themselves down. The people we need to vote for us to become the government are Leavers. The party apparatchiks are Remainers. They are upset that Corbyn didn't lead enough of a campaign - how else do you explain so many ignorant stupid people voting against their own best interests? We mustn't have put our case clearly and strongly enough, therefore need a new leader.
A leader who can tell Brexit Labour voters that they really ARE stupid for ignoring these facts and IGNORANT for disagreeing with us and if you mention refugees at all then you're just RACIST. Apparently that's what we need.
Quite. I actually laughed out loud at Hodge saying one of her reasons was that Corbyn was "too half-hearted" in the referendum. Like criticising someone for not getting close enough to a pack of wild tigers.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
All because he wants free movement but the people who are supposed to vote for him won't.
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
In effect, if the EU had remained a trading block of the richest European countries, mutually co-operating in removing tariffs and encouraging free trade then we would still be in.
But they didn't.
It never was that. We left EFTA in order to join it.
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.
I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.
I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.
The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.
The British Government has been consistent in that respect in Scotland as well.
But repeat votes is just taking the p1ss
Yeah.
the '79 40% rule Douglas Home offering 'better' devolution then Thatcher dumping it. Con and Lab saying a majority of SNP mps were the threshold for Scottish Indy. Cons opposing devolution. Vote No for Devo Max and to guarantee our EU membership.
Polly Toynbee @pollytoynbee 2m2 minutes ago If Tories need someone sane to challenge Boris, just watch Anna Soubry on fire today
? Anna Soubry? Not going to happen.
As a Conservative member, Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan could crawl on their hands and knees and beg me for their vote but NO, NO AND NO.
And yet both have turned ex-Labour seats into marginals and then safe seats. That takes effort and skill. The sort of seats that the Conservatives need to win to win elections.
What I hear is the buzzing drone of Conservative equivalent of Kinnock's "getting my party back". I'm not wholly convinced this is the better approach.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA. It be an FTA that covers the sectors in this table marked in green (cars, aerospace, food, chemicals and machinery) where we have a trade deficit and most not cover the sectors marked in red or orange (finance, insurance and professional services) where we have a surplus. A trade deal that markedly favours the EU in other words
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
All that is very sad if it happens. Certainly some 'buyers' remorse likely in the Welsh valleys possibly [pun intended]
Of course, all these companies have been given the perfect alibi. They can now layoff or relocate at will and there's nothing anyone can say.
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
Well I've long advocated Rees-Mogg (and I win a massive amount if he gets the gig - it's me backing him on BF, and I just hope it's not Mr RM himself laying the bets . Leadsome is a possibility, and there are off-radar choices too. Some people seem to favour Crabb, but I can't see it really)
BBC News: EU Official shaking [with rage] when the result came through this morning...
Any pictures or link?
How is it possible to shake with rage as a result of 17 million honest to goodness British citizens having voted in a way which they believe is genuinely best for their country?
Comments
If Labour (or another centre left party) can get a popular, persuasive leader in place and make the case for per-capita wealth and not this ridiculous hamster-wheel GDP wealth, then there is fertile ground for them to succeed quickly.
We've become material rich (smart phones/widescreens/cars/kitchens/overseas holidays) via easy credit, but, we've all become time and security poor. We are eating up the world's resources as an incredible rate of knots, scorching the earth and spending less time doing things of value.
A re-set of the way we all think, with more localised politics and - dare I say it - a BIG society, has to be the most sensible way forward for those of us who care about 'happiness'.
I know this sounds a bit blue-sky-thinking but I'm just throwing it out there. The working classes (far less racist, selfish and bigoted than many will realise) are crying out for an olive branch and if the Labour party gets it shit together, they could be in business.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
My personal opinion was - and remains - I'd be sad to see you go, but if that's what you decide then good luck to you and hopefully we can come up with a sensible "win-win" deal and be good neighbours. I don't think anyone in Scotland could reasonably object to Brit with that view (don't forget that my mother's family is Scottish: Graham, Majoribanks, Hamilton-Gordon and Campbell)
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-uk-has-voted-to-leave-eu.html
Hear, hear. Like the EU split, SIndy does not have to be a win-lose battle, where one side gains at the expense of the other. Both sides could end up richer and happier. There can be a win-win.
I think a period of silence from Nigel Farage and all his grinning Praetorian Guard would be very much appreciated. He has totally embarrassed himself. Why any woman would want to join this macho club is beyond me.
I'm not a fan of Boris but his speech was just pitch perfect.
Really sad to see the PM go.
But repeat votes is just taking the p1ss
But hard to see the counterfactual accurately since a post-Brexit EU won't turn out the same way as if we had voted to remain.
What was it Mao said about the success of the French Revolution - too early to tell?
However I rather fear that many people who wrongly put the failures of the country onto the EU will be looking for another group to blame. Probably immigrants (again), but I hope not.
(*) Yes, I know 'better' is an awful word.
The people who voted Out don't
Leave 40%
Regret 12%
http://theweek.com/speedreads/632139/some-brexit-supporters-now-say-already-regret-voting-leave-eu
For example, a lot of people across the EU think the President of the European Commission should be elected. They couldn't get all the member states to agree to this so they ended up with a fudge in Lisbon where the member states would "take into account" the results of the European elections when choosing the Commission president. The main political party groupings then went ahead and nominated candidates who appeared in debates, and most of the member states wanted to choose the candidate whose party got the most votes. The main opposition to this was David Cameron, who wanted a back-room stitch-up instead. At one point it looked like he might get his way, but popular opposition, particularly in Germany, wasn't having any of it, and the winner got the job.
The corollary to the British losing that battle is that if the voters don't like Juncker once his first term is up, they can vote for another party and fire him.
Fair enough...
Either way, what a bl88dy mess.
@nxthompson: We'll have a shot in November, too. https://t.co/WMeRimgfGd
Anyway, life goes on. Hopefully the inter-site feuding will clear and we move onto new territory which are.
Cameron's successor. - I wouldn't start from this point, hard to see the diamond in the rough.
Trump or Clinton. Sanders endorsing Clinton may have been prepared for today to take away the probable poll surge for Trump post Brexit.
FWIW - I don't think Corbyn will go - the 'New Labour' may huff and puff but as has already been mentioned the activists would keep him in and no one will want to end their political aspirations that much.
FWIW2 - I don't think Sindy2 will happen either. Instead of project fear, this may happen or that may happen, the Remain campaign has solid facts to present and will surely present them effectively. Whilst there is a significant desire for Scotland to be self-determining there is nothing driving the average Scotsman to leave. Indeed if Brexit is achieved successfully economically there may be a bit more money going round. If.
Ask me in 6 months I might be a regretter, but Let's try to be optimistic.
@PaulBrandITV: Looks like we'll have a parliamentary debate on a second EU referendum then. #neverendum #neverendumstory https://t.co/DR8zw63xSn
As a party we are about to disappear down the same black hole the LibDems threw themselves down. The people we need to vote for us to become the government are Leavers. The party apparatchiks are Remainers. They are upset that Corbyn didn't lead enough of a campaign - how else do you explain so many ignorant stupid people voting against their own best interests? We mustn't have put our case clearly and strongly enough, therefore need a new leader.
A leader who can tell Brexit Labour voters that they really ARE stupid for ignoring these facts and IGNORANT for disagreeing with us and if you mention refugees at all then you're just RACIST. Apparently that's what we need.
Buyer's remorse. Perfectly natural in the circumstances.
Oh, and then there is this...
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
that's good isnt it ?
At what point can MPs stop this madness?
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
But you know what? It doesn't matter. We are where are.
Two Labour MPs have submitted a motion of no confidence in Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey confirmed the move in a letter to the chairman of the Parliamentary Labour Party.
The motion has no formal constitutional force but calls for a discussion at their next PLP meeting on Monday.
It will be up to the PLP chairman to decide whether it is debated. If accepted it would be followed by a secret ballot of Labour MPs on Tuesday.
-- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36621777
How serious is this for JC?
As for predictions, I bet heavily on leave.
I am long on May for next leader.
And after Cameron said he was leaving in the next 3 months I pointed out you can still get odds for Cameron leaving "in the next 3 months"
Soubry and Rudd compete for least likeable ministers ever.
I wouldn't have wanted it to happen this way but it's pointless to think there won't be some benefits to this.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
But they didn't.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
You'll be much happier
the '79 40% rule
Douglas Home offering 'better' devolution then Thatcher dumping it.
Con and Lab saying a majority of SNP mps were the threshold for Scottish Indy.
Cons opposing devolution.
Vote No for Devo Max and to guarantee our EU membership.
A monument to consistency.
What I hear is the buzzing drone of Conservative equivalent of Kinnock's "getting my party back". I'm not wholly convinced this is the better approach.
http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150306_Open_Europe_Brexit_table.png
Edit: Priti Patel is not impossible.
The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.