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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,989

    I mean, they could have said Britain would have a veto on Turkish membership, but it already has one.

    To be honest that might have worked. Gordon Brown understood the value of reannouncing existing policy as something new.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,685
    Anyway, on to much more important matters. Sri Lanka bat.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,170
    Chameleon said:

    I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.

    I'm also pretty worried about Scotland potentially leaving, really don't want that to happen.

    I'm actually quite surprised. I thought all the Leavers on here would be jubilant, but their main concern seems to be with throwing barbs at the Remainers (still). What's the point?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    If anyone is interested - I gather The Times paywall is down today - have a read.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,536

    LibDemNewswire @LibDemNewswire
    Tim Farron has broken the news that 1,000 people have joined Lib Dems already today.

    Time for a resurrection?

    1001 members is hardly a force to be reckoned with...
    Thats tripled their membership
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,960
    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    I'd be more concerned he's broken into your house, apparently.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    Scenario:
    Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.

    Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.

    Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.

    Listen comrade, you voted Brexit. Live with it. Europe are not going to give us good terms.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,242

    Scott_P said:

    @BBC_Joe_Lynam: Morgan Stanley says it's begun a process to relocate 2,000 key Investment banking staff from London to either Dublin or Frankfurt

    Any calculations floating around on the effect on Exchequer of losing City revenues like this?
    Yes and when London begins to pick up more Asian business and solidifies ties with the US, they'll all come back, if they even leave in the first place.

    These kinds of announcements are not really to be taken seriously, we don't even know what kind of trading agreement we will seek with the EU.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Which pollster did Leave.EU use? They called it almost spot on.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590

    Spanish stockmarket down 12.5%

    Italian market down 10.5%

    French market down 8.5%

    German market down 7.0%

    UK market down 4.0%

    I bet the continentals wish they had offered more concessions in the renegotiation now.

    Quite. I'm the PM wished he had played hard ball more!

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,056

    Scott_P said:

    @jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45


    The revenge begins.

    remove his train franchises then. Bombardier in Derby will be delighted with the business
    I really doubt Bombardier in Derby have the capacity. They've just won an order for about 100 new EMU carriages, and from my admittedly flawed memory turned down a large contract last year (or the year before) as they were too busy.

    According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows:
    Bombardier : 886
    Siemens : 1,440
    Hitachi : 893
    CAF : 75

    New orders in 2016 have been:
    CAF : 407
    Bombardier : 92
    Hitachi : 95

    I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.
    Short term perhaps, but if Siemens are saying theyre pulling out its an opportunity for those who want to stay to get more business

    when that fact registers with Siemens they;ll stop talking nonsense.
    We need the trains (*) in the short- and medium-term, mainly thanks to DoT mucking up. Also if were to get rid of any contract, it should be for the awful contract with Hitachi which will be a millstone around passengers' necks for ?25? years.

    The situation is much more complex than throwaway 'solutions' allow. It may be possible for the Siemens contracts to be postponed and reallocated, but there will be penalties considering some are already being delivered. It will also mean that SWT and Thameslink passengers have to cope with clapped-out trains that were ready for withdrawal and that the electrification schemes are thrown into further chaos.

    (*) According to the DoT
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,186
    Alistair said:

    MY one betting regret is that no numbnut backed up their jaw flapping on the whole "Scotland will vote just like the rest of the UK" proposition.

    And they seemed so sure...
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    kle4 said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    I'd be more concerned he's broken into your house, apparently.
    He would be very disappointed, I dont even have a cappuccino machine ;)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    Indigo said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fenster said:

    I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

    He wants Free Movement.

    The people who voted Out don't
    Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
    That's not the EEA.
    Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?


    He doesn't want freedom of movement, so that rules out membership of the EU (which I think Hannan was talking about retaining) as well as membership of the EEA. So you are left with a Korean style Free Trade Agreement
    My reading of Hannan is that he believes that the basis of a society is found in its institutions, and that for the British society to be successful those institutions have to be in the control of the British people, so that they feel pride in their ownership. I think he probably wants EEA style free movement (ie people with jobs), but it is more important to him that the British people get the level of immigration that they feel comfortable with at any moment in time, because that it good for social cohesion.
    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    Having spent 3hrs reading the posts since 0530 - Mr Meeks is a shockingly poor loser.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45


    The revenge begins.

    Just economics. You know, what those experts who were ignored mentioned a few times.
    EXPERTS ARRRGH !!!!!!!

    The experts in the ad and spin world were assured us they would crush Leave - They didn't
    The experts in polling called it for Remain by some margin - totally wrong
    The experts in the City have just lost billions of investors money this week when they got it wrong

    Experts they know bugger all frankly.
    The Maoist takeover continues.

    Next, the inteliectuals will be put up against a wall.....

  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    Am seeing a number of comments along the lines of 'why are the Leavers jubilant - do you have buyers remorse' and similar.

    I will reiterate something which I said in the early hours of the morning:
    Despite voting Leave, I was more anxious about the potential consequence of a Leave vote than a Remain one - and what it says about the country. All of us involved in politics need to spend far more time listening to people, and far less time shouting at them.

    My view of 'Leave' was always that the potential upside for the country was higher, but the potential downside was also lower - we need to work really hard to make sure that we can have a more united, less divided nation which can work together and move forward with optimism rather than revert to populist division. That means those of us on the Leave side being open and generous to those on the other side of the debate and ensure that they are included in the conversation if they feel able to be a willing part of that conversation.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    The idea that "Remainers are willing a recession" is just the sort of insulting shit that we are sadly exposed to from time to time on here, on what is an otherwise a good site full of decent people from both sides.

    My wife and I have both been in tears today, worried about the future of London, our family and our livelihoods. Workplaces in this great city are like morgues. Now we are subjected to thousands of tweets and several TV interviews with Leavers who say they had not expected a Leave win and would have voted otherwise had they considered it a realistic prospect.

    I can assure you that, far from willing a crash, I am doing the opposite – looking for any crumb of comfort that this Brexit thing might work. I am finding no such crumb. It has become immediately clear that Boris and Gove a) didn't expect to win and b) have not the foggiest idea to do now they have .

    Credit to Chameleon for his post below, it takes a big man to admit that. In contrast, those Leavers saying Remainers are willing a recession should hang their heads in shame.

    I await the childish responses.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,536
    PlatoSaid said:

    I see Feldman will fall on his sword when Cameron's replacement is chosen.

    Good.

    It won't be his sword.....
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    Having spent 3hrs reading the posts since 0530 - Mr Meeks is a shockingly poor loser.
    The article by Owen Jones could have been written about him.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494

    Chameleon said:

    I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.

    I'm also pretty worried about Scotland potentially leaving, really don't want that to happen.

    I'm actually quite surprised. I thought all the Leavers on here would be jubilant, but their main concern seems to be with throwing barbs at the Remainers (still). What's the point?
    Not yet realised that they have to defend. I'm enjoying the freedom to attack, it's much more fun.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,806

    GIN1138 said:

    BBC News: EU Official shaking [with rage] when the result came through this morning...

    Any pictures or link?
    How is it possible to shake with rage as a result of 17 million honest to goodness British citizens having voted in a way which they believe is genuinely best for their country?
    Oh, but the temerity. The temerity....of DEMOCRACY! It's just not how EU do things....
    "The majority have no right to do wrong!"

    - Eamonn de Valera after the June 1922 Free State election, which Anti-Treaty Sinn Fein lost.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,242
    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    Having spent 3hrs reading the posts since 0530 - Mr Meeks is a shockingly poor loser.
    Lets wait and see how much of a poor winner you are when it all starts to go pear shaped as it will..
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GdnPolitics: Europeans in the UK react to Brexit: 'Britain is a poorer, crueller country' https://t.co/FlgOjTyIKG
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Lennon said:

    Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
    Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!

    Given that there is no realistic way for Dan Hannan or Ruthie to be on the list I too am struggling, and am wondering if the Tories would want to go back to a "safe pair of hands" type leader. If only Hague hadn't stepped down last year...
    The problem is that all the Tory front runners are decidedly shop-soiled.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Just nationalise Sieman's trains - what is the problem exactly - I thought Labour was in favour of that?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Thrak said:

    Thrak said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45


    The revenge begins.

    Just economics. You know, what those experts who were ignored mentioned a few times.
    EXPERTS ARRRGH !!!!!!!

    The experts in the ad and spin world were assured us they would crush Leave - They didn't
    The experts in polling called it for Remain by some margin - totally wrong
    The experts in the City have just lost billions of investors money this week when they got it wrong

    Experts they know bugger all frankly.
    The Maoist takeover continues.

    Next, the inteliectuals will be put up against a wall.....

    I voted out! Fuck the experts! I'm gonna use homeopathy to cure my cancer!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Indigo said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    Having spent 3hrs reading the posts since 0530 - Mr Meeks is a shockingly poor loser.
    The article by Owen Jones could have been written about him.
    Quite.

    I still can't believe we've done it. My hangover isn't helping - but what a fab reason to have one :lol:
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    THE BBC NEWS BULLETIN SPENT FOUR MINUTES BEFORE GETTING ON TO THE RESIGNATION OF THE PRIME MINISTER!

    Has there ever been a day when the PM quitting is so far down the news agenda?

    (Think the priorities are correct - Cameron was going to go at some point in next four years. The EU vote changes the entire historical trajectory of this country. But I still find this astonishing.)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,989
    PClipp said:

    Lennon said:

    Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
    Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!

    Given that there is no realistic way for Dan Hannan or Ruthie to be on the list I too am struggling, and am wondering if the Tories would want to go back to a "safe pair of hands" type leader. If only Hague hadn't stepped down last year...
    The problem is that all the Tory front runners are decidedly shop-soiled.
    Leadsom being ramped by ITV.

    http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2016-06-24/south-northamptonshire-mp-leadsom-emerges-as-one-of-the-favourites-to-be-next-pm/
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    Chameleon said:

    I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.

    That's karma, Chameleon.
    For me the most powerful image of the day was Carney trying to halt a run on the bank shares. That spoke volumes.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    tyson said:

    Scenario:
    Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.

    Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.

    Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.

    Listen comrade, you voted Brexit. Live with it. Europe are not going to give us good terms.

    So within 12 hours of the result we now have fantasy reconciliation plans from the Leavers. It real is the most depressing of days.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,056
    Jobabob said:

    The idea that "Remainers are willing a recession" is just the sort of insulting shit that we are sadly exposed to from time to time on here, on what is an otherwise a good site full of decent people from both sides.

    My wife and I have both been in tears today, worried about the future of London, our family and our livelihoods. Workplaces in this great city are like morgues. Now we are subjected to thousands of tweets and several TV interviews with Leavers who say they had not expected a Leave win and would have voted otherwise had they considered it a realistic prospect.

    I can assure you that, far from willing a crash, I am doing the opposite – looking for any crumb of comfort that this Brexit thing might work. I am finding no such crumb. It has become immediately clear that Boris and Gove a) didn't expect to win and b) have not the foggiest idea to do now they have .

    Credit to Chameleon for his post below, it takes a big man to admit that. In contrast, those Leavers saying Remainers are willing a recession should hang their heads in shame.

    I await the childish responses.

    Mrs J is very concerned for her job, and apparently the atmosphere in her office is gloomy. We are fortunate that if the worst does happen, we have some savings set aside and a very small mortgage.

    Many others are not so lucky.

    We should be shouting to the world that we are open for business. The more we wallow in gloom the more excuse they have to trade elsewhere.

    Confidence is key.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Scott_P said:

    @jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45


    The revenge begins.

    remove his train franchises then. Bombardier in Derby will be delighted with the business
    I really doubt Bombardier in Derby have the capacity. They've just won an order for about 100 new EMU carriages, and from my admittedly flawed memory turned down a large contract last year (or the year before) as they were too busy.

    According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows:
    Bombardier : 886
    Siemens : 1,440
    Hitachi : 893
    CAF : 75

    New orders in 2016 have been:
    CAF : 407
    Bombardier : 92
    Hitachi : 95

    I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.
    Short term perhaps, but if Siemens are saying theyre pulling out its an opportunity for those who want to stay to get more business

    when that fact registers with Siemens they;ll stop talking nonsense.
    Why can't Bombadier take advantage and expand its facilities?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Jobabob said:

    The idea that "Remainers are willing a recession" is just the sort of insulting shit that we are sadly exposed to from time to time on here, on what is an otherwise a good site full of decent people from both sides.

    My wife and I have both been in tears today, worried about the future of London, our family and our livelihoods. Workplaces in this great city are like morgues. Now we are subjected to thousands of tweets and several TV interviews with Leavers who say they had not expected a Leave win and would have voted otherwise had they considered it a realistic prospect.

    I can assure you that, far from willing a crash, I am doing the opposite – looking for any crumb of comfort that this Brexit thing might work. I am finding no such crumb. It has become immediately clear that Boris and Gove a) didn't expect to win and b) have not the foggiest idea to do now they have .

    Credit to Chameleon for his post below, it takes a big man to admit that. In contrast, those Leavers saying Remainers are willing a recession should hang their heads in shame.

    I await the childish responses.

    I'm with you in spirit of this - talking positive to clients and steady as she goes, it'll be ok, in the medium term it won't be that material an impact (per the 'experts' from Invesco) etc

    No tears though, stiff upper lip. Mrs. Scrap is bemused whilst I had a furious daughter who was demanding why if she hadn't got a vote why were people over 75 allowed to vote as it wasn't going to affect them for very long (!!!! - grand parents will be chuffed)

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    Having spent 3hrs reading the posts since 0530 - Mr Meeks is a shockingly poor loser.
    Lets wait and see how much of a poor winner you are when it all starts to go pear shaped as it will..
    Well more of us believe we're going to be a better nation as a result.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    PlatoSaid said:

    Which pollster did Leave.EU use? They called it almost spot on.

    Survation.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    IF today is anything to go by with market panic and Leave already backtracking on their main promises, I wouldn't be surprised if in about 6 months 60-70% of people will be supporting some kind of attempt to undo Leaving. Interesting political dynamic
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,815
    edited June 2016
    Am seeing a number of comments along the lines of 'why aren't the Leavers jubilant - do you have buyers remorse' and similar.

    I will reiterate something which I said in the early hours of the morning:

    Despite voting Leave, I was more anxious about the potential consequence of a Leave vote than a Remain one - and what it says about the country. All of us involved in politics need to spend far more time listening to people, and far less time shouting at them.

    My view of 'Leave' was always that the potential upside for the country was higher, but the potential downside was also lower - we need to work really hard to make sure that we can have a more united, less divided nation which can work together and move forward with optimism rather than revert to populist division. That means those of us on the Leave side being open and generous to those on the other side of the debate and ensure that they are included in the conversation if they feel able to be a willing part of that conversation.


    Far from being jubilant - I am determined - it is now that the real hard work starts to help to move this country forward, to heal its divisions and to work better for all of its people.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    THE BBC NEWS BULLETIN SPENT FOUR MINUTES BEFORE GETTING ON TO THE RESIGNATION OF THE PRIME MINISTER!

    Has there ever been a day when the PM quitting is so far down the news agenda?

    (Think the priorities are correct - Cameron was going to go at some point in next four years. The EU vote changes the entire historical trajectory of this country. But I still find this astonishing.)

    I'm watching Sky - surprised they aren't all wearing black. Their whole mood is funereal.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,056
    edited June 2016
    PAW said:

    Just nationalise Sieman's trains - what is the problem exactly - I thought Labour was in favour of that?

    I think you're joking, but they're being made in Krefeld, Germany. Good luck in nationalising a German plant owned by a German firm. ;)

    The situation is much more complex than that as well.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_700

    Actually having a long-term rail policy rather than the spurts of investment we see at the moment would help. It leads to times when trainmakers are overloaded and others when they are waiting for work.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 28,071
    edited June 2016
    Just a note to say thanks to the site for the tips and quips over the last year and a bit.

    I started dabbling at the GE or a little before, and thanks to tips and listening, and I hope a some decent judgements I now have made my original bankroll back and left as much again for future stakes.

    A donation will be forthcoming.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,806

    PlatoSaid said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    Having spent 3hrs reading the posts since 0530 - Mr Meeks is a shockingly poor loser.
    Lets wait and see how much of a poor winner you are when it all starts to go pear shaped as it will..
    Sore Loserman!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,403

    Chameleon said:

    I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.

    I'm also pretty worried about Scotland potentially leaving, really don't want that to happen.

    I'm actually quite surprised. I thought all the Leavers on here would be jubilant, but their main concern seems to be with throwing barbs at the Remainers (still). What's the point?
    Not all of us Stark. My intent is to treat Remain supporters on here in the way I would hope to be treated if the position had been reversed this morning. I am pleased with the result but have always seen this as a job less than half done.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    nunu said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Which pollster did Leave.EU use? They called it almost spot on.

    Survation.
    Massive plaudits for them in that case - the rest, especially Populus, made complete charlies of themselves.

    IIRC Survation suppressed a poll just before GE2015 - and it was almost spot on too.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited June 2016
    Now is the time for the Government to seize control, set up an infra-structure bank and shovel loads of money into British business.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,882
    Thrak said:

    Andrew said:

    matt said:


    One wonders how much coordinated central bank support there is behind the curtain. That uncontrolled freefall hasn't happened doesn't mean that it could not have done.

    Was thinking that. The £ is only down 4c on where it was 3months ago.
    Maybe a bottom of 1.20 USD. Managed over the coming weeks.
    Agree - and would temper the "only" with the thoughts that we are at a 30-year low, and yesterday's fall was, I think, almost unprecedented...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,045
    Jobabob said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Indigo said:

    Fenster said:

    The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?

    Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
    I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
    Absolutely, and I hope he's looking forward to the redundancy that he asked of us :)

    Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.
    SJW? Explain?
    Social Justice Warrior. A term that people who spend too long on the internet call people who spend too long on the internet

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,116
    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @itvnews: A woman who voted leave says she is unhappy with her choice and now wishes to vote remain
    https://t.co/dW6inOjHbl https://t.co/7wjFLlrjwK

    @Cavalorn: 'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,045
    Mike, hi

    More than happy to contribute but I prefer cash to electronic transfer. If you have a physical location I can send money to please let me know. I guarantee that I will not disclose it to anybody

    Regards, viewcode
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,225
    Just up after a few hours sleep. My fb feed has exploded into a morass of virtue signalling, blame and, frankly, bigotry. I'm so much more impressed with how people on here have reacted. #winninghere
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Lennon said:

    Am seeing a number of comments along the lines of 'why aren't the Leavers jubilant - do you have buyers remorse' and similar.

    I will reiterate something which I said in the early hours of the morning:

    Despite voting Leave, I was more anxious about the potential consequence of a Leave vote than a Remain one - and what it says about the country. All of us involved in politics need to spend far more time listening to people, and far less time shouting at them.

    My view of 'Leave' was always that the potential upside for the country was higher, but the potential downside was also lower - we need to work really hard to make sure that we can have a more united, less divided nation which can work together and move forward with optimism rather than revert to populist division. That means those of us on the Leave side being open and generous to those on the other side of the debate and ensure that they are included in the conversation if they feel able to be a willing part of that conversation.


    Far from being jubilant - I am determined - it is now that the real hard work starts to help to move this country forward, to heal its divisions and to work better for all of its people.

    Great post. Some celebration is due to those who campaigned for Leave for sure, but today marks the beginning of the hard work rather than the end.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    All this thrashing about and finger pointing will be over in a few days, regardless of the economic side-effects.

    We've voted OUT, Article 50 will be invoked and both Lab, Con and the Lib Dems will have to coalesce and deal with the new reality. The terms of the debate will move swiftly from Brexit to the type of country Britain is now going to aspire to be and which British political party is best placed to lead it.

    Some very interesting political times (and betting opportunities) lie immediately ahead.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    PlatoSaid said:

    If anyone is interested - I gather The Times paywall is down today - have a read.

    Oh yes, @TSE mentioned last night but I forgot. Will take a look, thanks.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: A woman who voted leave says she is unhappy with her choice and now wishes to vote remain
    https://t.co/dW6inOjHbl https://t.co/7wjFLlrjwK

    @Cavalorn: 'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.

    LOL Thought that was an Onion story until I clicked on the link.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,045

    We should be shouting to the world that we are open for business.

    We just voted to leave the largest free-trading block in the universe because we no longer wish to import cheap labour to build things cheaply.

    If you knoww a way to reconcile that with "we are open for business", your facility with the English language is greater than mine.

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

    Ditto. Frankly, I think the massive raspberry the population has blown at The Establishment and their entitled fellow travellers is remarkable.

    Call us racists, xenophobes, isolationists, stupid, bigoted, ignorant, Little Englanders - and you get all you deserve.

    Those who used those terms need to have a very long look in the mirror at themselves.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: A woman who voted leave says she is unhappy with her choice and now wishes to vote remain
    https://t.co/dW6inOjHbl https://t.co/7wjFLlrjwK

    @Cavalorn: 'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.

    Sounds like she expected some sort of 'cooling off period' when you vote. Which, if there was electronic voting (which I hate), would actually be quite possible.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Time to take a break, lick my wounds and wait what happens. Not long until Spurs are back with us and maybe a fantasy footie league again. Adieu.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,045
    Fenster said:

    Some very interesting political times (and betting opportunities) lie immediately ahead.

    Indeed

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Scott_P said:

    @itvnews: A woman who voted leave says she is unhappy with her choice and now wishes to vote remain
    https://t.co/dW6inOjHbl https://t.co/7wjFLlrjwK

    @Cavalorn: 'I never thought leopards would eat MY face,' sobs woman who voted for the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party.

    Idiot
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,034
    Jobabob said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fenster said:

    Indigo said:

    Fenster said:

    The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?

    Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
    I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
    Absolutely, and I hope he's looking forward to the redundancy that he asked of us :)

    Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.
    SJW? Explain?
    Social Justice Warrior. The middle class liberal lefties from Islington who think the biggest problem facing the UK in 2016 is that we haven't taken in enough refugees. See Emily Thornberry and Yvette Cooper for details.


  • PClipp said:

    Lennon said:

    Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
    Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!

    Given that there is no realistic way for Dan Hannan or Ruthie to be on the list I too am struggling, and am wondering if the Tories would want to go back to a "safe pair of hands" type leader. If only Hague hadn't stepped down last year...
    The problem is that all the Tory front runners are decidedly shop-soiled.
    Correct

    But the same can be said of Labour

    When you stand back and look at both parties -between them they have roughly 600 MPs yet there really is only an absolute handful of half decent MP's who could lead their party.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746255954929455104

    I predicted SNP Remain vote would be 65%

    I am a genius.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Scott et al,

    I just read a tweet that says Morgan Stanley have refuted the BBC leave story.

    Your concerns are noted though, and I do have a sense of foreboding today.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    PlatoSaid said:

    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

    Ditto. Frankly, I think the massive raspberry the population has blown at The Establishment and their entitled fellow travellers is remarkable.

    Call us racists, xenophobes, isolationists, stupid, bigoted, ignorant, Little Englanders - and you get all you deserve.

    Those who used those terms need to have a very long look in the mirror at themselves.
    It is indeed remarkable, in that those who have blown it are going to bear the brunt of the pain that is to follow.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,056
    Blue_rog said:

    Scott_P said:

    @jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45


    The revenge begins.

    remove his train franchises then. Bombardier in Derby will be delighted with the business
    I really doubt Bombardier in Derby have the capacity. They've just won an order for about 100 new EMU carriages, and from my admittedly flawed memory turned down a large contract last year (or the year before) as they were too busy.

    According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows:
    Bombardier : 886
    Siemens : 1,440
    Hitachi : 893
    CAF : 75

    New orders in 2016 have been:
    CAF : 407
    Bombardier : 92
    Hitachi : 95

    I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.
    Short term perhaps, but if Siemens are saying theyre pulling out its an opportunity for those who want to stay to get more business

    when that fact registers with Siemens they;ll stop talking nonsense.
    Why can't Bombadier take advantage and expand its facilities?
    I know at least one poster has a much more intimate connection than my outdated knowledge, but the following might be true:

    *) Plant size: thy might have to open a new plant as Litchurch Lane is fairly constrained (from memory). At the very least they'd have to open new lines, with all the associated costs.

    *) Litchurch Lane survived for twenty years on the basic Turbostar / Electrostar design family inherited from their predecessor Adtranz. It was a remarkably robust and flexible design, but is at its end. They've started building from a new design called Aventra that, as far as I'm aware, won't meet all the requirements given by DfT for some of these contracts.

    *) The trains are needed now and in the next few years.

    *) The nature of government investment in rail means that they would spend money expanding capacity for a glut, only for it to stand idle when the consequent lull occurs.

    Some info on the Aventra:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aventra
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,079
    PlatoSaid said:

    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

    Ditto. Frankly, I think the massive raspberry the population has blown at The Establishment and their entitled fellow travellers is remarkable.

    Call us racists, xenophobes, isolationists, stupid, bigoted, ignorant, Little Englanders - and you get all you deserve.

    Those who used those terms need to have a very long look in the mirror at themselves.
    52:48 not such a huge raspberry.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,711
    Lennon said:

    Am seeing a number of comments along the lines of 'why aren't the Leavers jubilant - do you have buyers remorse' and similar.

    I will reiterate something which I said in the early hours of the morning:

    Despite voting Leave, I was more anxious about the potential consequence of a Leave vote than a Remain one - and what it says about the country. All of us involved in politics need to spend far more time listening to people, and far less time shouting at them.

    My view of 'Leave' was always that the potential upside for the country was higher, but the potential downside was also lower - we need to work really hard to make sure that we can have a more united, less divided nation which can work together and move forward with optimism rather than revert to populist division. That means those of us on the Leave side being open and generous to those on the other side of the debate and ensure that they are included in the conversation if they feel able to be a willing part of that conversation.


    Far from being jubilant - I am determined - it is now that the real hard work starts to help to move this country forward, to heal its divisions and to work better for all of its people.

    I agree, it was never going to be a source of jubilation. But just as it would have been easier for us to pull out at an earlier stage, I do firmly believe that the longer we stayed in the worse the eventual pain would be. Better to tackle it now than be faced with worse later.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    I tried to back Dominic Raab as next Con leader a few years back. I contacted Paddy Power and they'd never heard of him!

    He's 20/1 now!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MTimT said:

    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.

    We did this at the time. Absolute value is illusory

    We sell 40% of our stuff to them

    They sell 8% of their stuff to us

    Which one has the upper hand? And remember our pain is local. Their pain is spread across 27 countries.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,242
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    Why would the EU position be stronger. I still fail to see it, we are a nation of importers and consumers, they are a bloc of producers and savers. Yes, their market is vast, but for 30 years it hasn't worked in our favour, we now have a chance to reset that relationship, I can't foresee any government signing a deal that didn't include access for services exports. It would be better to go for WTO at that point and let the Germans deal with import substitution and more competitive British exports in non-EU nations.

    We don't need a deal, especially one that doesn't include services trade. I expect if the EU tried to play hardball, we'd tell them to go fuck themselves and watch the chairmen of Daimler, BMW and Opel demand Mrs Merkel (or whoever replaces her) give in to British demands on services trade. Britain is a huge, huge market, especially for finished manufactured goods.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Alistair said:

    ttps://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/746255954929455104

    I predicted SNP Remain vote would be 65%

    I am a genius.

    All those Little Englanders did it for Cameron.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,056

    PlatoSaid said:

    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

    Ditto. Frankly, I think the massive raspberry the population has blown at The Establishment and their entitled fellow travellers is remarkable.

    Call us racists, xenophobes, isolationists, stupid, bigoted, ignorant, Little Englanders - and you get all you deserve.

    Those who used those terms need to have a very long look in the mirror at themselves.
    52:48 not such a huge raspberry.
    Yes, some leavers seem to be rather ignoring how close the vote was.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,882

    Scott_P said:

    taffys said:

    IF you want a vision of the future, imagine a remainer posting 'It's all your fault' for eternity.

    You Brexit, you pays for it...
    No. We are all in it together. Cameron and Osborne told us so.
    Well we're certainly in it! The 'together' bit, discuss....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
    Not only that but the UK economy is stronger and has the potential to unleash growth we didn't have yesterday by negotiating with the rest of the world. The EU economy is mired in sclerosis and mass unemployment and has lost its single largest customer with no upside if they don't make a deal with us.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Viewcode - "We just voted to leave the largest free-trading block in the universe because we no longer wish to import cheap labour to build things cheaply" - You are a lefty? Union supporter? Or are you a mill owner?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
    What's the US TV saying about this vote? I'm still too hungover to even try...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159
    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    ...
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
    If the EU doesn't negotiate on, say, financial services they will relocate to their territories. We are already seeing that with JP Morgan. They can get quite a lot of what they want by sitting on their hands. Car factories won't move from Germany to the UK. The EU has the bigger critical mass. The UK needs the EU market more than the other way round. It's not just bilateral trade. A company may require EU access before it sets its worldwide operations in the UK. It's not going to bother so much about UK access for its operations in Germany. The EU has the template for the FTA and negotiators who have done dozens of similar deals. The EU controls the timing of the negotiations with a two year guillotine under Article 50.

    These add up to a lot of reasons why the EU has the stronger hand.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,122

    Jobabob said:

    The idea that "Remainers are willing a recession" is just the sort of insulting shit that we are sadly exposed to from time to time on here, on what is an otherwise a good site full of decent people from both sides.

    My wife and I have both been in tears today, worried about the future of London, our family and our livelihoods. Workplaces in this great city are like morgues. Now we are subjected to thousands of tweets and several TV interviews with Leavers who say they had not expected a Leave win and would have voted otherwise had they considered it a realistic prospect.

    I can assure you that, far from willing a crash, I am doing the opposite – looking for any crumb of comfort that this Brexit thing might work. I am finding no such crumb. It has become immediately clear that Boris and Gove a) didn't expect to win and b) have not the foggiest idea to do now they have .

    Credit to Chameleon for his post below, it takes a big man to admit that. In contrast, those Leavers saying Remainers are willing a recession should hang their heads in shame.

    I await the childish responses.

    I'm with you in spirit of this - talking positive to clients and steady as she goes, it'll be ok, in the medium term it won't be that material an impact (per the 'experts' from Invesco) etc

    No tears though, stiff upper lip. Mrs. Scrap is bemused whilst I had a furious daughter who was demanding why if she hadn't got a vote why were people over 75 allowed to vote as it wasn't going to affect them for very long (!!!! - grand parents will be chuffed)

    First time I've shed tears on a political event. Anger mainly. I had an hours sleep, and woke up with "what the hell have you done?" blazing in my head. It is unthinkable to see the UK out of Europe, derided and dismissed by our closest neighbours.

    The worst part is how Brexit turned the campaign on kicking migrants, praying on people's fears and prejudices. And when Brexit doesn't deliver the promises it proclaims. What then? It has let the genie out of the bottle

    Today and 9/11 are the darkest political days in my life. The short term prospects for the UK are bleak. Worse though, is the corrosive affect this will have on our psyche as a nation. Winning a campaign by appealing to people's racism and ignorance....what more do you need to say?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Indigo said:

    kle4 said:

    Indigo said:

    Christ I am going to have to get this clothing washed again with all the blood spatter from Tyson running around like a headless chicken.

    I'd be more concerned he's broken into your house, apparently.
    He would be very disappointed, I dont even have a cappuccino machine ;)
    Oh are you from up north? :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,806

    PlatoSaid said:

    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

    Ditto. Frankly, I think the massive raspberry the population has blown at The Establishment and their entitled fellow travellers is remarkable.

    Call us racists, xenophobes, isolationists, stupid, bigoted, ignorant, Little Englanders - and you get all you deserve.

    Those who used those terms need to have a very long look in the mirror at themselves.
    52:48 not such a huge raspberry.
    Yes, some leavers seem to be rather ignoring how close the vote was.
    Close? I raise you a Quebec:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,056

    PlatoSaid said:

    A) I am surprised at some on the remain side seemingly wishing for some sort of total economic collapse.

    B) how the EU became synonymous with "outward looking and liberal" is beyond me. It's been an unmitigated disaster in terms of its political ambitions.

    Ditto. Frankly, I think the massive raspberry the population has blown at The Establishment and their entitled fellow travellers is remarkable.

    Call us racists, xenophobes, isolationists, stupid, bigoted, ignorant, Little Englanders - and you get all you deserve.

    Those who used those terms need to have a very long look in the mirror at themselves.
    52:48 not such a huge raspberry.
    Yes, some leavers seem to be rather ignoring how close the vote was.
    Close? I raise you a Quebec:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
    Your point being?

    Oh, you don't have one.

    As usual.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,898
    FF43 said:

    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    ...
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
    If the EU doesn't negotiate on, say, financial services they will relocate to their territories. We are already seeing that with JP Morgan. They can get quite a lot of what they want by sitting on their hands. Car factories won't move from Germany to the UK. The EU has the bigger critical mass. The UK needs the EU market more than the other way round. It's not just bilateral trade. A company may require EU access before it sets its worldwide operations in the UK. It's not going to bother so much about UK access for its operations in Germany. The EU has the template for the FTA and negotiators who have done dozens of similar deals. The EU controls the timing of the negotiations with a two year guillotine under Article 50.

    These add up to a lot of reasons why the EU has the stronger hand.
    you sort of just make this up, dont you ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,159

    FF43 said:

    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    ...
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
    If the EU doesn't negotiate on, say, financial services they will relocate to their territories. We are already seeing that with JP Morgan. They can get quite a lot of what they want by sitting on their hands. Car factories won't move from Germany to the UK. The EU has the bigger critical mass. The UK needs the EU market more than the other way round. It's not just bilateral trade. A company may require EU access before it sets its worldwide operations in the UK. It's not going to bother so much about UK access for its operations in Germany. The EU has the template for the FTA and negotiators who have done dozens of similar deals. The EU controls the timing of the negotiations with a two year guillotine under Article 50.

    These add up to a lot of reasons why the EU has the stronger hand.
    you sort of just make this up, dont you ?
    You sort of just sneer, don't you?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,882

    Danny565 said:

    I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.

    The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.

    They won't need to admit that they made a mistake. They'll just turn on the people who told them it would all be ok.
    +1 Agree absolutely. A proportion of the electorate now expects a) all immigration will stop, b) all EU migrants already here will go home, c) the NHS will quickly become the lovely queue-free vision from the right hand side of the screen in leave EUref broadcast, d) fuel bills will drop by 5%, e) all health and safety regulations are null and void and f) any dodgy imam will be shipped of to Guantanamo no questions asked.

    When they are disappointed, will they blame: a) themselves, or b) the snake oil salesmen from the Tory Party that promised them all of the above.... ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,882

    Listening to Boris and Gove they do not look like they are at ease with the position they are in. The problems labelled 'project fear' are all materialising today and the leavers seem to have no plan of what to do. This is beginning to look far more serious then many acknowledged and I do not see any leader who has the ability and leadership that can deal with this. I wonder if in a few days time many leavers will be having many regrets. I am worried at how this crisis will pan out

    +1 +1 +1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,882
    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fenster said:

    I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

    He wants Free Movement.

    The people who voted Out don't
    Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
    That's not the EEA. It be an FTA that covers the sectors in this table marked in green (cars, aerospace, food, chemicals and machinery) where we have a trade deficit and most not cover the sectors marked in red or orange (finance, insurance and professional services) where we have a surplus. A trade deal that markedly favours the EU in other words

    http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/150306_Open_Europe_Brexit_table.png
    Why would we sign such a deal?
    Because it is better than nothing. Total trade matters as well as trade balances.
    Deal or no deal? It's a brutal choice.

    Did you hear the lunchtime interviews with various EU bigwigs on R4? I took away the likelihood that the EU will play the exit negotiations hard and long, hoping that at some point the UK might change its mind on leaving. If there has been a GE meanwhile, surely this isn't an impossibility?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,882

    FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Fenster said:

    I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.

    He wants Free Movement.

    The people who voted Out don't
    Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
    That's not the EEA.
    Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?


    Because EU-imposed free movement is an unwelcome imposition from the EUSSR super-state. Voluntary free movement is freedom and us taking control....
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,176
    MTimT said:

    FF43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    FF43 said:



    I think that a coherent point of view, but it is neither the EU nor EEA. It is a Korean style FTA, which probably hasn't been to the advantage of Korea.

    http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150727001080

    From my view, the EEA is attractive as a second best to the EU but is unworkable, with the FTA as the third remaining option. That option has big costs for the UK. The sad thing is that EU membership is by far the best option for the UK but that is the only option to have been excluded.

    In your opinion it's the best option. In reality it's a dysfunctional market in which we have one foot out of the door.

    I still don't see why we would sign a trade deal which isn't at least equal. We have a £120bn trade deficit with the EU and EU exports as a share of GDP has been falling every year.
    Not really. There are three realistic options for a relationship between the UK and the EU - four if you add in your suggestion of nothing at all. The EEA has all the features that people dislike about the EU with extra problems. All the downsides plus a couple of extra ones and no upside. That is an objective summary. If you dislike the EU, the EEA has to be worse. Now, the EU has been eliminated so we may end up with the EEA, but that doesn't change my point.

    Now the FTA is a different beast. If you want to control immigration, it allows you to do that. That may be an upside from your POV. But the additional downsides versus the EEA and EU are big.

    We would sign a deal like the Korean one for the same reasons Korea did. There will be a haggle, probably some things to do with services. The UK will get enough bits and pieces out of it for the deal to be acceptable to it given where it's negotiating from. But the UK and the EU will be negotiating from different places and the EU position will be much stronger.
    A very logical post until the last seven words. Explain why the EU position is much stronger when there is a 120 billion trade imbalance in its favour.
    Because their economy is 4-5 times larger than the UK it represents a much lower share of their GDP.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    The Remainers are going beyond parody now -

    https://www.change.org/p/sadiq-khan-declare-london-independent-from-the-uk-and-apply-to-join-the-eu

    They just will not accept it, will they? News flash - you have no choice, so stop whinging, stop bleating, stop peddling moronic conspiracy theories, and ACCEPT the result. Better still, buggar off to North Korea where you'll be welcomed.
This discussion has been closed.