I think Jezza played a blinder. When General Thornberry and Labour's Lemming Brigade charged to the cliff, calling to their supporters to follow, he hung back a little. "I'll just stay with Captain Mann, he seems to know what he's doing."
In effect, if the EU had remained a trading block of the richest European countries, mutually co-operating in removing tariffs and encouraging free trade then we would still be in.
But they didn't.
You had the EEC, but you wouldn't let it lie, would you? You wouldn't let it lie....
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
As I've suggested before: Rory Stewart. He's a remainer, but he's generally kept his head down and explained his reasons well.
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
Well I've long advocated Rees-Mogg (and I win a massive amount if he gets the gig - it's me backing him on BF, and I just hope it's not Mr RM himself laying the bets . Leadsome is a possibility, and there are off-radar choices too. Some people seem to favour Crabb, but I can't see it really)
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
Given that there is no realistic way for Dan Hannan or Ruthie to be on the list I too am struggling, and am wondering if the Tories would want to go back to a "safe pair of hands" type leader. If only Hague hadn't stepped down last year...
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA. It be an FTA that covers the sectors in this table marked in green (cars, aerospace, food, chemicals and machinery) where we have a trade deficit and most not cover the sectors marked in red or orange (finance, insurance and professional services) where we have a surplus. A trade deal that markedly favours the EU in other words
Listening to Boris and Gove they do not look like they are at ease with the position they are in. The problems labelled 'project fear' are all materialising today and the leavers seem to have no plan of what to do. This is beginning to look far more serious then many acknowledged and I do not see any leader who has the ability and leadership that can deal with this. I wonder if in a few days time many leavers will be having many regrets. I am worried at how this crisis will pan out
BBC News: EU Official shaking [with rage] when the result came through this morning...
Any pictures or link?
How is it possible to shake with rage as a result of 17 million honest to goodness British citizens having voted in a way which they believe is genuinely best for their country?
Oh, but the temerity. The temerity....of DEMOCRACY! It's just not how EU do things....
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
Absolutely, and I hope he's looking forward to the redundancy that he asked of us
Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
Well, 'Project Fear' is now redundant, so are we soon going to get 'Project Revenge' - the beastly elite punishing Britain for it's plucky stance for independence.
Do you seriously think that these large companies are interested in taking 'revenge' on anybody. They'll be making hard headed decisions on what they think is best for their companies.
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA. It be an FTA that covers the sectors in this table marked in green (cars, aerospace, food, chemicals and machinery) where we have a trade deficit and most not cover the sectors marked in red or orange (finance, insurance and professional services) where we have a surplus. A trade deal that markedly favours the EU in other words
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
Well, 'Project Fear' is now redundant, so are we soon going to get 'Project Revenge' - the beastly elite punishing Britain for it's plucky stance for independence.
Do you seriously think that these large companies are interested in taking 'revenge' on anybody. They'll be making hard headed decisions on what they think is best for their companies.
Equally there is a very big difference between saying today 'we're going to see what happens before making any further decisions' and 'screw you - we're leaving'
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA.
Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?
Listening to Boris and Gove they do not look like they are at ease with the position they are in. The problems labelled 'project fear' are all materialising today and the leavers seem to have no plan of what to do. This is beginning to look far more serious then many acknowledged and I do not see any leader who has the ability and leadership that can deal with this. I wonder if in a few days time many leavers will be having many regrets. I am worried at how this crisis will pan out
I agree. Maybe there will be some kind of step back in a few months time. Maybe after a GE.
Frankfurt now rubbing its hands with glee as it becomes the new main financial centre in EU.
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
Agreed, but is there an unknown gem in there somewhere, who is preferably liked and respected on both sided of the great divide?
Listening to Boris and Gove they do not look like they are at ease with the position they are in. The problems labelled 'project fear' are all materialising today and the leavers seem to have no plan of what to do. This is beginning to look far more serious then many acknowledged and I do not see any leader who has the ability and leadership that can deal with this. I wonder if in a few days time many leavers will be having many regrets. I am worried at how this crisis will pan out
Yes. That was my greatest fear - I don't trust the current crop of jokers to sort anything out, let alone a catastrophic mess of their own making.
@PaulBrandITV: Looks like we'll have a parliamentary debate on a second EU referendum then. #neverendum #neverendumstory https://t.co/DR8zw63xSn
On the petition itself, it's not in itself a terrible idea for a referendum to be decided by a bit more than 50% +1 vote (turnout limit they suggest way too high though) - but stable doors, horses bolted and all that, too late to rerun on new rules.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA.
Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas in which Britain should seek to re-establish control?
Because he's an opportunistic professional politician.
Tata Steel, Britain’s biggest steel producer, said the decision to leave the EU could damage the chances of it maintaining its operations in the UK, according to a person close to the company.
Well, 'Project Fear' is now redundant, so are we soon going to get 'Project Revenge' - the beastly elite punishing Britain for it's plucky stance for independence.
Do you seriously think that these large companies are interested in taking 'revenge' on anybody. They'll be making hard headed decisions on what they think is best for their companies.
weve been telling you that all this campaign, it's why they've prgressively wound down their UK operations and see us simply as a sales outlet. If they contribute nothing why should they have the benefits of our economy ?
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
Duchy of Lancaster?
Yes, that sounds safe, ish. Hopefully his collection of photos were only of the previous incumbents.
@PaulBrandITV: Looks like we'll have a parliamentary debate on a second EU referendum then. #neverendum #neverendumstory https://t.co/DR8zw63xSn
On the petition itself, it's not in itself a terrible idea for a referendum to be decided by a bit more than 50% +1 vote (turnout limit they suggest way too high though) - but stable doors, horses bolted and all that, too late to rerun on new rules.
I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.
The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.
The psychology of this has been well documented. People refuse to accept they were wrong even when faced with evidence. Instead a different justification is switched to. Humans are narcissists.
If the EU treats the UK with spite and vengeance then all it will do is stiffen the resolve of the British people. It would be a ridiculous thing to do because it would prove the 'anti democratic' slurs were true.
It'll be interesting to see if the EU brings in its beloved Tobin Tax now we are gone.
Hannan should be offered the Whitney seat for the by-election fight.
Like that thinking! Not sure how long Dave will stay around though, he's only 50 and might fancy a few years on the back benches to annoy the Leavers in Parliament!
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
Cabinet office.
Maybe ambassador to someone we are really seriously unlikely to go to war with, no matter what he does.
If the EU treats the UK with spite and vengeance then all it will do is stiffen the resolve of the British people. It would be a ridiculous thing to do because it would prove the 'anti democratic' slurs were true.
It'll be interesting to see if the EU brings in its beloved Tobin Tax now we are gone.
I bet they won't.
That's a really great question. I'd bet they won't too.
I think it's quite clear from what I've read here and the dreadful tw@tter that the Remainers are PRAYING for a recession so that they can say 'told you'. Worse sour grapes than the general election.
@PaulBrandITV: Looks like we'll have a parliamentary debate on a second EU referendum then. #neverendum #neverendumstory https://t.co/DR8zw63xSn
On the petition itself, it's not in itself a terrible idea for a referendum to be decided by a bit more than 50% +1 vote (turnout limit they suggest way too high though) - but stable doors, horses bolted and all that, too late to rerun on new rules.
Should have been 2/3 majority.
Should have been a 1/4 majority. Not for any good reason of course, but I can pull numbers out of the air as well as you can.
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
Cabinet office.
Maybe ambassador to someone we are really seriously unlikely to go to war with, no matter what he does.
Governor of the South Sandwich Islands? Can't see the penguins getting too rebellious no matter what...
I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.
I'm also pretty worried about Scotland potentially leaving, really don't want that to happen.
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
As I've suggested before: Rory Stewart. He's a remainer, but he's generally kept his head down and explained his reasons well.
I'm probably wrong though.
His TV series, founded on the thesis that Hadrians wall created an artificial border followed by a potted history of a dozen kingdoms that straddled the wall without any issue, made me doubt his acumen.
Also a Scottish leader may well become rapidly untenable.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA. It be an FTA that covers the sectors in this table marked in green (cars, aerospace, food, chemicals and machinery) where we have a trade deficit and most not cover the sectors marked in red or orange (finance, insurance and professional services) where we have a surplus. A trade deal that markedly favours the EU in other words
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
Agreed, but is there an unknown gem in there somewhere, who is preferably liked and respected on both sided of the great divide?
Well if Ruth was in Parliament...but she is not and having her and Boris in the same cabinet just might get complicated.
@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45
The revenge begins.
remove his train franchises then. Bombardier in Derby will be delighted with the business
I really doubt Bombardier in Derby have the capacity. They've just won an order for about 100 new EMU carriages, and from my admittedly flawed memory turned down a large contract last year (or the year before) as they were too busy.
According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows: Bombardier : 886 Siemens : 1,440 Hitachi : 893 CAF : 75
New orders in 2016 have been: CAF : 407 Bombardier : 92 Hitachi : 95
I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.
I think it's quite clear from what I've read here and the dreadful tw@tter that the Remainers are PRAYING for a recession so that they can say 'told you'. Worse sour grapes than the general election.
@PaulBrandITV: Looks like we'll have a parliamentary debate on a second EU referendum then. #neverendum #neverendumstory https://t.co/DR8zw63xSn
On the petition itself, it's not in itself a terrible idea for a referendum to be decided by a bit more than 50% +1 vote (turnout limit they suggest way too high though) - but stable doors, horses bolted and all that, too late to rerun on new rules.
Should have been 2/3 majority.
Turnout thresholds and super majority requirements are terrible. They were terrible in '79, they are terrible now.
I'm getting a pretty serious case of buyers remorse. Leaving the EU just seems to be sacrificing a lot for very little. The one upside I can see right now is that we may not have the FTT while the rest of Europe has it.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA.
Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?
He doesn't want freedom of movement, so that rules out membership of the EU (which I think Hannan was talking about retaining) as well as membership of the EEA. So you are left with a Korean style Free Trade Agreement
@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45
The revenge begins.
Just economics. You know, what those experts who were ignored mentioned a few times.
EXPERTS ARRRGH !!!!!!!
The experts in the ad and spin world were assured us they would crush Leave - They didn't The experts in polling called it for Remain by some margin - totally wrong The experts in the City have just lost billions of investors money this week when they got it wrong
I think the idea of "buyers' remorse" is wishful thinking from Remainers.
The public are too stubborn to ever admit that they got a decision wrong, atleast not for a very long time afterwards.
Yeah.
But joining the EEA or similar might be a way to offer reassurance without actually admitting a mistake. That's what former Remainers need to be focused on promoting.
(Though Labour remainers are more interested in knifing Corbyn, it seems)
@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45
The revenge begins.
The Country was warned by these Companies. It is not revenge it is business
they haven't gone yet.
And lets hope they don't but I am concerned that the new cabinet won't be in place until October as the economy drifts or worse
Yes, that's the only thing that worries me, dragging this out to October is going to drag on the uncertainty. I think we need the government to lay out what our plan is, do we go EFTA or do we go WTO and then negotiate from outside. I think either can be made to work, and businesses can invest on the basis of either plan, not knowing is worse right now.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA.
Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?
Leaving aside the three front runners of Boris, Mrs. May and Michael Gove none of whom I believe has the required attributes to be Prime Minister and discounting also the chances of 3 previously favoured potential candidates, being Messrs. Osborne, Hammond and Javid all of whom have fallen away for one reason or another, who else, including current unknowns, do PBers consider might emerge from the pack over the next couple of months - I must admit I'm struggling to find anyone.
Edit bit: for Morris - please don't suggest your long time favourite and my MP, Ms. Greening, she has absolutely no chance!
A reminder for those entering via vanillaforums who may not see all the way to the bottom of a header (or the earlier mentions), a donate button to help support site infrastructure is up if anyone feels so inclined following monetary success last night.
Are we agreed that Boris is pretty unlikely to become Tory Leader / PM or am I missing something? I just don't see how he gets to the final 2 given his soured relationship with the Remain section of the party.
On the other hand, I have just had a virtual stand-up argument in the office with people who were going 'obviously it'll be Boris - they'd be mad to pick anyone else'. (Amusingly followed by 'But he's the betting favourite')
I think Boris is the man to beat and if Gove backs him (in exchange for the Chancery) he will be pretty much unstoppable. A remainer is not going to get it and the tories are not daft enough to go back to IDS.
God, that probably means Chris Grayling gets another job as well. Oh lord. Can anyone think of anything pretty much unbreakable?
Duchy of Lancaster?
Yes, that sounds safe, ish. Hopefully his collection of photos were only of the previous incumbents.
Can't they make him Cabinet Minister for Hugging Huskies?
I bet the continentals wish they had offered more concessions in the renegotiation now.
If you're going to make that comparison you need to use a single currency: Most of the UK stock market decline is in the drop in value of the token it's denominated in.
But no, there's nothing the rest of the EU could reasonably offered Britain that would have swung enough voters to change the outcome. I mean, they could have said Britain would have a veto on Turkish membership, but it already has one.
@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45
The revenge begins.
Just economics. You know, what those experts who were ignored mentioned a few times.
EXPERTS ARRRGH !!!!!!!
The experts in the ad and spin world were assured us they would crush Leave - They didn't The experts in polling called it for Remain by some margin - totally wrong The experts in the City have just lost billions of investors money this week when they got it wrong
Experts they know bugger all frankly.
Quite. The FTSE is now back up to the level it was about a week ago. This is the end of the world? It seems somewhat quiet.
@jo_makel: Siemens boss says future investment and expansion of business in the #Humber is now under threat. More on @looknorthBBC, BBC One 13.45
The revenge begins.
remove his train franchises then. Bombardier in Derby will be delighted with the business
I really doubt Bombardier in Derby have the capacity. They've just won an order for about 100 new EMU carriages, and from my admittedly flawed memory turned down a large contract last year (or the year before) as they were too busy.
According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows: Bombardier : 886 Siemens : 1,440 Hitachi : 893 CAF : 75
New orders in 2016 have been: CAF : 407 Bombardier : 92 Hitachi : 95
I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.
Short term perhaps, but if Siemens are saying theyre pulling out its an opportunity for those who want to stay to get more business
when that fact registers with Siemens they;ll stop talking nonsense.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
He wants Free Movement.
The people who voted Out don't
Then why has he suggested Britain "opt out of the non-economic aspects of membership, such as foreign affairs, agriculture, fisheries, social policy, environmental law, immigration and citizenship" and argued "We shall control our domestic affairs: taxation, employment law, social policy, defence, farming, fishing, immigration"? Seems pretty clear he doesn't want freedom of movement, even if he might tolerate it.
That's not the EEA.
Let me try this again. Why, if he supports free movement of people, has he specifically said that immigration is one of the areas over which Britain should seek to re-establish control?
He doesn't want freedom of movement, so that rules out membership of the EU (which I think Hannan was talking about retaining) as well as membership of the EEA. So you are left with a Korean style Free Trade Agreement
My reading of Hannan is that he believes that the basis of a society is found in its institutions, and that for the British society to be successful those institutions have to be in the control of the British people, so that they feel pride in their ownership. I think he probably wants EEA style free movement (ie people with jobs), but it is more important to him that the British people get the level of immigration that they feel comfortable with at any moment in time, because that it good for social cohesion.
Scenario: Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.
Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.
So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC
Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry
I can barely see through the tears of mirth
Soubry dropped to 20 from around 350 (on BF)
How much would you like at 20? I think I can facilitate most requests at that price, although in fairness there are now better offers available on Betfair.
Soubry has totally wrecked her career this morning.
LibDemNewswire @LibDemNewswire Tim Farron has broken the news that 1,000 people have joined Lib Dems already today.
Time for a resurrection?
They had loads join after the GE, it hasn't led to anything yet - but if not now, when? Maybe they could be the 'let's reapply to join' party, has to be more than 4-6% people now.
The same applies to the Tories, of course. But can Gove, Johnson et al, extend that olive branch as convincingly and winningly as the Labour party could?
Hannan could, he is conspicuously a right-wing communitarian at heart, Gove maybe he is strong associated with the "Good Right" movement, Johnson not so much.
I bet Hannan won over more centre left voters than any other Tory on the Leave side. His campaigning and oratory was brilliant. Positive, hopeful, clear and without any hint of malice or fear.
Absolutely, and I hope he's looking forward to the redundancy that he asked of us
Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.
Scenario: Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.
.
Nope. It'll change after we leave, or too late to stop it, not before, and Boris or others will not be given an offer even if they wanted to reconsider
We should of had a mock run of the vote with the consequences after so people knew what they were voting for. Just think all those elites, and establishments and experts....turned out they knew what they were talking about after all.
Shame it is all too late and ignorance and racism has plunged the UK into a crisis.
Scenario: Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.
Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.
Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.
Is that a scenario or a plan? Leave has been missing a plan from the start and it is getting rather urgent.
Comments
A wise general, even if by accident
I'm probably wrong though.
The revenge begins.
Labour as a grassroots movement need to ditch the hectoring SJW types and promote councillors from the WWC areas to be MPs. Let the Coopers and the Thornberrys join the Greens if that's the price for connecting with the working people, the people that just showed up in big numbers to stick two fingers up at the political class.
Frankfurt now rubbing its hands with glee as it becomes the new main financial centre in EU.
A Brexiter.
It'll be interesting to see if the EU brings in its beloved Tobin Tax now we are gone.
I bet they won't.
They don't own us.
Italian market down 10.5%
French market down 8.5%
German market down 7.0%
UK market down 4.0%
I bet the continentals wish they had offered more concessions in the renegotiation now.
I'm also pretty worried about Scotland potentially leaving, really don't want that to happen.
Also a Scottish leader may well become rapidly untenable.
According to the latest Rail, the orders for new UK 'trains' (meaning individual carriages) at the beginning of 2016 were as follows:
Bombardier : 886
Siemens : 1,440
Hitachi : 893
CAF : 75
New orders in 2016 have been:
CAF : 407
Bombardier : 92
Hitachi : 95
I doubt Bombardier has anywhere near the capacity to make Siemens' trains, yet alone the others, within the timescales in which they are required. I think in the case of Hitachi they don't even have a product.
The experts in the ad and spin world were assured us they would crush Leave - They didn't
The experts in polling called it for Remain by some margin - totally wrong
The experts in the City have just lost billions of investors money this week when they got it wrong
Experts they know bugger all frankly.
But joining the EEA or similar might be a way to offer reassurance without actually admitting a mistake. That's what former Remainers need to be focused on promoting.
(Though Labour remainers are more interested in knifing Corbyn, it seems)
Farewell rUK, it was nice knowing you. I'll still come to visit my relatives.
But no, there's nothing the rest of the EU could reasonably offered Britain that would have swung enough voters to change the outcome. I mean, they could have said Britain would have a veto on Turkish membership, but it already has one.
That's your globalisation.
Tim Farron has broken the news that 1,000 people have joined Lib Dems already today.
Time for a resurrection?
" There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
I couldn't agree more. And they've blown a giant raspberry at them.
Well done.
when that fact registers with Siemens they;ll stop talking nonsense.
Cameron pulled the speed brake with is "lets have a new leader first" ploy. That gives months for the Ignorant and Racist contagion to sweep Europe. Podemos take power in Spain, half of Western Europe have demands for their own Leave votes, Schengen folds for good, the banks fall to their knees under the strain.
Eurocrat types realise the jig is up and start looking at plans for a slower looser confederation. With the EU as was collapsing anyway, and the UK being sucked into the black hole of Doom by the markets, PM Boris offers a new vote on membership of the new European Confederation (or "EC" for short), which with the view over the precipice looking large in voters windows, they vote to join the refounded EC.
Do NOT bank on the EU as is continuing.
Democracy in action.
We should of had a mock run of the vote with the consequences after so people knew what they were voting for. Just think all those elites, and establishments and experts....turned out they knew what they were talking about after all.
Shame it is all too late and ignorance and racism has plunged the UK into a crisis.
Good.