politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

You're just panicking.

Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.

The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.

"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"

@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum

If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.

I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.

Chelyabinsk said:

williamglenn said:

The EU could just transfer all the UK's accumulated opt-outs and vetos directly to the newly formed Scottish state.

There are ways round all problems.

FF43 said:

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Do either of you get the impression that Cameron's renegotiation showed a desire to have more states in the EU with special privileges? Do you think the EU is more or less likely to tolerate the possession of these privileges by a net contributor of forty years standing, than it is to grant them to a newly-joining state with a £8bn hole in its budget?

Tbh I don't understand your point. The UK is out of the EU. It's over. If an independent Scotland were to join the EU, it needs to get its budget deficit down. It would be painful. I voted No in 2014 because genuinely it wasn't in Scotland's interest to be independent. I also voted Remain in 2016 for exactly the same reasons. So I (genuinely) accept the decision to leave the EU even though I think it a profoundly foolish one. Then someone comes along and says how about independence for Scotland? I'm not going to think it is any smarter a second time round but bear in mind I have already accepted one stupid decision.

Scott_P said:

@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt

Given that the HoC has the right to ignore the referendum result, that's a constitutionally interesting approach.

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Nicola does not want independence.

They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.

Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?

IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.

No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.

Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.

I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.

I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?

tyson said:

I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.

We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through

Didn't duty free amount to a bottle and a half of wine or half a bottle of spirits, maximum, before the EU?

All these Leave leaders suddenly being in favour of free movement and unlimited immigration. How thick are they?

Do they want Nigel Farage PM?

I feared the result of Remain 51% in terms of UKIP surge but Con Leave leadership are trying to get the worst of both worlds.

anotherDave said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK, so I decided to have a lie-in after going to bed after 6am

Good "morning" everyone!

The Sunil on Sunday wishes all PBers a very Happy Independence Day!

Well done on your heroic vote quest! Braved the storm of the gods across a thousand leagues, and cast the vote that saved the land!

Why, thank you!

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

TOPPING said:

anotherDave said:

TOPPING said:

Hannan saying he wants free movement.

I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.

Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.

He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.

OK. Didn't see that.

Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.

Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.

After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.

Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.

Scott_P said:

Stark_Dawning said:

I've got the horrible feeling that Boris, like a few Leavers on here, really just wanted a narrow Remain. It would allow a few quick fixes (zap Dave) without any lasting damage. Such thinking has proved a touch dangerous.

Someone posted elsewhere that what Boris really wanted was the status quo, just with him in Downing Street instead of Cameron.

And now he will inherit chaos beyond his wildest imaginings.

Be careful what you wish for...

Always was a little suspicious of boris.. hmm

Enough coverage for me. What a weird time to be alive.

Thrak said:

anotherDave said:

Thrak said:

tyson said:

I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.

We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through

Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.

Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?

What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.

There were camps in Calais before the treaty, though. This is a deal which works for both sides.

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Nicola does not want independence.

They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.

Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?

IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.

No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.

Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.

I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.

I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?

And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.

AnneJGP said:

Omnium said:

If the Scots want another referendum then I guess its their right. I quibble a little with the grounds - they voted to be part of the UK, and now wish to pick and choose whether they accept the results of being in that union.

I think it would be an economic disaster for them. The EU may not exist in two years anyway.

The idea of any London separatism is preposterous in my view. I can't imagine Khan would say anything like that directly.

We are in the period of peak pain for people who truly believe that the EU is the only viable way forward.

However, what Scottish and London separatist responses are saying is that they believe their own majority votes count for more than those of the rest of England & Wales.

Now - why not acknowledge it - since England & Wales probably couldn't survive without London, they are also saying they don't care about England & Wales.

Sadly, this is a prime driver of the high Leave vote. E&W has long been aware (as has Scotland) that London doesn't care about the country of which it is the capital. That awareness has mostly been focussed on Westminster but the distinction is hard to spot from outside.

Can we find a different approach? London (and indeed Scotland) wants to stay in the EU. So what can they do to help heal the wounds that E&W has suffered over decades at the hands of people who don't care about them, which has resulted in such a massive disconnect between perceived interests?

London is a city of pragmatists. I'm a Londoner, and I would say that many Londoners voted the way they did because of economic fears. Anyone that owns a home here has an enormous economic interest in not rocking the apple-cart. Moreover the city is a wonderful melting pot of all sorts of interests and cultures - the xenophobia of UKIP at their worst has been felt quite deeply.

If you take away the economic fear, and take away the nervousness about how the UK deals with people other than the indigenous then London would be far closer to the England and Wales view.

So knuckling down and making the best of where we find ourselves, and also making sure that the 'we' means all of us who are here and call the UK our home will address the London disconnect. With a bit of luck it will also create growth and employment in the areas of the UK that voted out.

I've no idea how you solve the Scottish issue - but independence now is a disaster for them.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

TOPPING said:

anotherDave said:

TOPPING said:

Hannan saying he wants free movement.

I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.

Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.

He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.

OK. Didn't see that.

Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.

Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.

After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.

Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.

At any national referendum you should get a number of votes equal to max(age-average_life_expectancy,1)

Those who live with the decision longest get the most say.

Wanderer said:

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

You're just panicking.

Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.

The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.

"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"

@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum

If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.

I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.

Quite. I would also cheer them on.

IanB2 said:

tyson said:

I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.

We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through

Didn't duty free amount to a bottle and a half of wine or half a bottle of spirits, maximum, before the EU?

Just one example of the millions of tons of minor regulations and so forth we will have to sort out.

Brexit will tie almost all government activity for two years or more. Meanwhile, real problems continue unsolved.

MaxPB said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Nicola does not want independence.

They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.

Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?

IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.

No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.

Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.

I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.

I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?

And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.

Spain only cares about vetoing UDI states.

Corbyn is bulletproof.

Indigo said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

anotherDave said:

TOPPING said:

anotherDave said:

TOPPING said:

Hannan saying he wants free movement.

I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.

Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.

He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.

OK. Didn't see that.

Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.

Remainers like me were warning that this is precisely what would happen. We lose all the benefits of EU and for what? A crappy trade deal still needs free movement.

After a few hours sleep, I still as angry as this morning. I see the demographics of the vote mean the older voters have voted for a future young people don't want.

Old people should not be allowed to vote on things that have lasting impacts? How else do you address the problem of young people not getting what they want.

Young people dragged out of Glasto or the pub and frogmarched to the polling booths whilst being force fed enough coffee to sober them up so they can vote ? It's a view I suppose.

I didn't say I shared it - if young people do t vote it's their own faults.

Margaret Hodge looks like an owl.

MaxPB said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Nicola does not want independence.

They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.

Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?

IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.

No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.

Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.

I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.

I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?

And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.

The circumstances of an exit from the EU are different.

If the EU could manage to keep Scotland in the EU as an independent state it would send the message to other members: Leave the EU and your country will not survive in the same form.

MaxPB said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Nicola does not want independence.

They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.

Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?

IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.

No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.

Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.

I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.

I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?

And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.

I suggest the pros and cons for the Spanish could be finely balanced, since Spain both wants and needs that the EU doesn't fall apart.

Fenster said:

Corbyn is bulletproof.

He has the unsinkable quality of the Titanic.

Jonathan said:

Fenster said:

Corbyn is bulletproof.

He has the unsinkable quality of the Titanic.

That he'll bring the whole party down with him if he is sunk?

what happens to gibraltar now?

I've just made a contribution to help fund the site. Thank you again to Mike and all those who continue to make this such a fascinating community.

IanB2 said:

MaxPB said:

MTimT said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

viewcode said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

nunu said:

Nicola does not want independence.

They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...

But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.

Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?

IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.

No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.

Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.

Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.

Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.

I suspect that, if Scotland votes for independence before the Article 50 two years are up, the EU will bend over backwards to keep them in the EU. This might even extend to the EU interpreting Scotland as never leaving, so sticking with its current membership terms.

I have not looked at the treaties, but what are the rules for succession, rather than accession, for 'new' members?

And open the door for Flanders, Cataluña and other breakaway regions to keep their national membership on becoming independent. One imagines Spain would veto such a deal within less than a minute.

I suggest the pros and cons for the Spanish could be finely balanced, since Spain both wants and needs that the EU doesn't fall apart.

It's possible, but again, I'm not sure how well that is going to be received by the other smaller nations, given our vetoes, opt-outs and rebate.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

what happens to gibraltar now?

Part of the negotiation, surely.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

what happens to gibraltar now?

Funnily enough, nothing, despite all the scare-mongering.

Fenster said:

Corbyn is bulletproof.

As in not bullet-worthy?

Why waste one!

(Just for clarity I have no truck whatsoever with real bullets - Hollywood bullets are fine though)

Haha...listening to the Euro fruitcakes...Redwood....wants access to the single market without freedom of labour, or paying for it.

A bit like divorcing the wife for a mistress, leaving the kids- but still wanting to keep your shagging rights without paying childcare.

So having torched everything in pursuit of his career, Boris is "not ready to announce his leadership plans"

Time for sleep. Not an encouraging start to the new era, to put it lightly, but then chaos was bound to happen in the aftermath.

Personally I'd be perfectly happy for the EU to make a new offer and to be asked again, assessing if it was any good, but as we were told out means out, and they won't make an offer and our government wouldn't accept it. So we'll have to hope the early signs are not reflective of how things will carry on.

It will be a heavy burden if all goes to crap and i made the wrong decision, even knowing the alternative was poor. Why oh why couldn't associate membership have been up for grabs? It seems like it woukd suit everyone - everyone within the Eu, but only as much as comfortable with, able to be encouraged to upgrade.

that's her toast then..

Polly Toynbee ‏@pollytoynbee 2m2 minutes ago
If Tories need someone sane to challenge Boris, just watch Anna Soubry on fire today

StarzandStrypz said:

I can see why the French would wake up today and start to see the silver lining. Brexit will allow them to grow their dominance within the EU, further fueled by the collapse of Merkel's authority following the migrant debacle. There's nothing the French enjoy more than a sense of importance and influence well beyond their natural limits, and events are playing right into their hands on that account.

Perhaps the French sense of self-importance will be somewhat dulled by having to pay much more for their farming subsidies. Has the EU announced their budget cuts yet?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

what happens to gibraltar now?

I suspect sovereignty will be untouched but it will affect freedom of movement and trade between Spain and Gibraltar. Spain will now have a free hand in cracking down on trade/smuggling.

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Wanderer said:

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

You're just panicking.

Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.

The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.

"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"

@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum

If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.

I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.

I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.

The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.

Um, the majority in Scotland don't want to be Independent, there was a vote if you recall. They may feel differently now, granted. the argument is over how often is reasonable to ask. 5 years into a rocky independence would it be too soon to ask the uk to try rejoining the EU? Probably.

Patrick said:

They'll get their second referendum in Scotland. And they'll lose. To Project Fear. Real fear not some 'there'll be war, zombie apocalypse and no inter-railing' horseshit of the Brexit campaign. The Remain camp lost because their scaremongering was simply not credible. The Sindy2 scaremongering will be. Very real.

Project Fear has already had one campaign to fine-tune its message specifically for Scotland. There have also been two campaigns in which Project Fear lost a massive lead, so hopefully third time round it will be accompanied by Project Love-bomb.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

that's her toast then..

Polly Toynbee ‏@pollytoynbee 2m2 minutes ago
If Tories need someone sane to challenge Boris, just watch Anna Soubry on fire today

There may be a minor issue with her candidacy. I can't quite recall what it is now.

MarkHopkins said:

edmundintokyo said:

StarzandStrypz said:

Online poll at French news site says 62% (out of some odd 70k online voters) "satisfied" with the results of the referendum. So apparently the feeling is mutual on both sides of the Channel. http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2016/06/24/01003-20160624QCMWWW00058-tes-vous-satisfait-du-resultat-du-referendum-au-royaume-uni.php

Also, per this tweet, the three main European political groupings appealing to stop faffing around and trigger Article 50 already.

Not up to them.

This is of course true, although in the meantime the old anti-EU fantasy about all the other countries ganging up on Britain in QMV votes may finally turn into reality...

kle4 said:

Indigo said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Wanderer said:

Jobabob said:

Scott_P said:

Sean_F said:

You're just panicking.

Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.

The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.

"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"

@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum

If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.

I would cheer Scotland on this time. I was desperate for them to stay in 2014. The world is not as it was.

I hate to say it but I agree. The intellectual case for the Union has taken a battering. And Sturgeon can now eats the Unionists alive.

The intellectual case was always pretty thin, the British Government frequently trumpets that the Argentines can have the Falklands when the majority of the people there want that to happen, and the RoI can have Northern Ireland when the majority want it to be so, but the same doesn't apply to Scotland. It's ridiculous. I am not a Scot, but it was always seemed to me the intellectually coherent argument that the same applies to them.

Um, the majority in Scotland don't want to be Independent, there was a vote if you recall. They may feel differently now, the argument is over how often is reasonable to ask.

I don't see why it's unreasonable to say they should be asked again when there's been such a significant change.

I wouldn't necessarily expect them to actually vote for independence (IIRC, test polls in the last few weeks showed Scotland would still stay in the union even in the hypothetical Brexit scenario) but they have a perfectly good case to have another indyref.

Chelyabinsk said:

The Remain camp lost because their scaremongering was simply not credible.

In both cases where "Project Realism" has run, all the terrible things they said would happen turned out to be true.

IanB2 said:

Sandpit said:

FTSE holding steady at 6060. It's not been that low since, umm, last week.

The £ isn't looking so happy at $1.36 and a bit. Almost unbelievable that at 9pm yesterday it was $1.50.

One wonders how much coordinated central bank support there is behind the curtain. That uncontrolled freefall hasn't happened doesn't mean that it could not have done.

anotherDave said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

that's her toast then..

Polly Toynbee ‏@pollytoynbee 2m2 minutes ago
If Tories need someone sane to challenge Boris, just watch Anna Soubry on fire today

? Anna Soubry? Not going to happen.

I can't see the Conservative party electorate looking for a candidate to successfully lead exit negotiations and alighting on the person who's spent all morning on national TV chelping about how terrible it all is, and why didn't the ghastly public listen to her?

They'd actually be better with Nicky Morgan.

So the funniest thing I have ever heard on the BBC

Polly Toynbee would put money on Anna Soubry

I can barely see through the tears of mirth