politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now Corbyn could be coming under pressure
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@BBCSteveR: Moscow's Mayor upbeat about Brexit: "Without UK in the EU, there's no one there who'll back sanctions against us so stridently," he tweeted0
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A tumbling GBP/USD rate increases the price of oil (priced in dollars, remember) and as for currency problems, well...MaxPB said:the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUMaxPB said:
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
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Google reporting a surge in people searching for elgibility for Irish passports0
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Chris Leslie's been well briefed about the letter0
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Not really. She only thinks about one thing and the tactics related to it.Jobabob said:
Yep. She will already be one step ahead there. This woman thinks about 1,000 things before most of us finish breakfast.viewcode said:
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUnunu said:
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?GIN1138 said:
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...nunu said:Nicola does not want independence.
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.0 -
I doubt if Sturgeon will declare UDI.edmundintokyo said:
What are they going to do, send in the tanks to stop it?Scott_P said:
I know. Astonishing.williamglenn said:And the Northern Ireland Secretary is on TV, Iraqi Information Minister style, denying that any of this is happening.
Then you get this fckwit
@bernardjenkin: Please someone remind @NicolaSturgeon that a second #scotindyref requires an Act of the U.K. Parliament. @CommonsPACAC0 -
Moscow's Mayor upbeat about Brexit: "Without UK in the EU, there's no one there who'll back sanctions against us so stridently," he tweeted
The fulcrum is shifting eastwards, to be sure.0 -
Everything is on the table and up for negotiation. Scotland is currently in the EU by virtue of being part of the UK.MaxPB said:
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.viewcode said:
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUnunu said:
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?GIN1138 said:
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...nunu said:Nicola does not want independence.
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
The EU could just transfer all the UK's accumulated opt-outs and vetos directly to the newly formed Scottish state.
There are ways round all problems.0 -
So what's happening? Cameron has "resigned" but will still be in place as a lame duck until October. Does he formulate a caretaker government? Appoint a Brexit negotiating team? At least have a cabinet reshuffle? Or just stick his fingers in his ears and go la la la?0
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Good point. It is also important to remember that the WWC are not a monolithic group who all have exactly the same opinions. There are some very liberal ones. The problem is that immigration is simply not in their economic interest, and they know it. They will also notice when pulling out of the EU doesn't alter the situation.Danny565 said:
Why do you say that Labour moderates wouldn't have a problem with immigration controls? That is generally one of the few issues where the "moderates" say Labour should take an unequivocally liberal stance and not "pander" to public opinion. Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna said even ED MILIBAND was too tough on immigration for their liking.SouthamObserver said:
So what you are telling me is that Labour should become a party that advocates strong immigration controls. I have a feeling that plenty of Labour moderates would not have a huge problem with that. But I know someone who would. And what do you think WWC voters think about giving up Trident? Or any of the other issues that Jezza feels strongly about? Where is his connection with Labour's voters? How does he speak to them? How does he connect? By not going near them? is that really what leadership is all about?
I agree that Jezza's stance on Trident and his general hippyish "Kumbaya" approach to terrorists will not go down well with the WWC, but on economic issues, he is much more in tune than the "moderates" are -- with Jezza, there is atleast the chance that WWC voters will overlook their disagreement with Labour on cultural issues if they atleast think they're being offered a chance to shake up the economy and make it work for them.
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Today should be a good day for democracy. Not in 30 years or more has the nation engaged with the democratic process in the way it did yesterday.
Our political class should now be decidedly nervous, because now that the public is engaged, they are less likely to accept failure from the political class again.
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Project fear wont work a second time.MaxPB said:
"Preparing the bill" lol.Jonathan said:
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.MaxPB said:
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.RealBritain said:
I think she must feel confident.FF43 said:I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
I'm beginning to see why it's do great to be on the losing side and not have to face consequences for end results - I can already see myself developing buyers remorse at some point far too late, but hopefully things will not be as dire as they look right now, it is too early to know it will end terribly.
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barring the Queen keeling over, I couldn't imagine a worse set of events...Stark_Dawning said:
It's actually panning out worse than I thought it would, and I thought it would be pretty damn bad.tyson said:I think 24th July will now go down as Calamity Day as opposed to Independence Day.
What with our disastrous choice, the sight of the BoE Governor desperately shoring up the banks, the end of Cameron, the Scots going Nat, the Nats rebirth in Ireland, the Eurocrats putting us to the sword, the assassination attack on Corbyn, and the prospect of Sadiq setting up an Independent Islamic Republic of London...I think that just about sums it up.
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Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.TOPPING said:Hannan saying he wants free movement.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
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Jesus Christ. What a lot of metropolitan horse manure. Which exit fantasists is this he is talking about ? More than half the population ?Scott_P said:They are going to find that everything is their problem now. So then exit fantasist, it is time to make good on your histrionic promise of liberty. Everything that happens is on your watch. All the tribulations and vicissitudes of the economy are yours. The pound fell to its lowest point since 1985 and the Bank of England is poised to intervene. Standard and Poor’s have said that the UK will lose its fine credit rating. The stock market was down 8.5 per cent in early trading. This is not just a downgrade in the value of assets. It is a leading indicator of the financial turmoil to come. If there is a recession, it is your recession. If inflation goes up and interest rates follow with an attendant spate of repossessions, it’s all yours. Well done.
And for what, exit fantasist? For what? The notion that Britain was not free until the early hours of this morning is the single most childish claim I have ever heard in British politics.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-will-take-an-age-to-recover-from-this-victory-for-the-exit-fantasists-zzfpxsc66
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No longer his problem. This is Leaver Land now.JohnLilburne said:So what's happening? Cameron has "resigned" but will still be in place as a lame duck until October. Does he formulate a caretaker government? Appoint a Brexit negotiating team? At least have a cabinet reshuffle? Or just sticks his fingers in his ears and go la la la?
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It's not short term for Scotland. All of these present long term problems that can't be talked away like the Leave campaign did with the stupid £4300 and 8% GDP loss rubbish the In campaign were peddling.Jonathan said:
Brexit proves that short-term economic arguments don't always carry the day. There will be no appetite for Boris' Britain North of the border.MaxPB said:
"Preparing the bill" lol.Jonathan said:
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.MaxPB said:
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.RealBritain said:
I think she must feel confident.FF43 said:I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
Additionally the ties that bind Scotland and England are much deeper than those that bound the UK and the EU. We've never liked the EU, Scotland and England together have overseen the rise and fall of an empire, there are a lot of Scottish people who won't throw away 300 years of history because of EU membership.0 -
Don't forget WWIII.tyson said:I think 24th July will now go down as Calamity Day as opposed to Independence Day.
What with our disastrous choice, the sight of the BoE Governor desperately shoring up the banks, the end of Cameron, the Scots going Nat, the Nats rebirth in Ireland, the Eurocrats putting us to the sword, the assassination attack on Corbyn, and the prospect of Sadiq setting up an Independent Islamic Republic of London...I think that just about sums it up.0 -
Lots of news going on today. Argentina should try nabbing the Falkland Islands again and see if anybody notices.0
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Haha - yes, Labour's problem (its leadership election rules and its resulting vast and open membership) isn't going away.Jonathan said:@SouthamObserver Time to pay £3
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Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.MaxPB said:
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.viewcode said:
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUnunu said:
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?GIN1138 said:
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...nunu said:Nicola does not want independence.
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.0 -
You get the same stupid crap with Canadian citizenship after every US election.not_on_fire said:Google reporting a surge in people searching for elgibility for Irish passports
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Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.Theuniondivvie said:After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.0 -
'end terribly'?? Really? Being a country?kle4 said:
Project fear wont work a second time.MaxPB said:
"Preparing the bill" lol.Jonathan said:
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.MaxPB said:
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.RealBritain said:
I think she must feel confident.FF43 said:I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
I'm beginning to see why it's do great to be on the losing side and not have to face consequences for end results - I can already see myself developing buyers remorse at some point far too late, but hopefully things will not be as dire as they look right now, it is too early to know it will end terribly.
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Fortunately Argentina has practically no military capability.edmundintokyo said:Lots of news going on today. Argentina should try nabbing the Falkland Islands again and see if anybody notices.
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The ones who said shit like this...Indigo said:Which exit fantasists is this he is talking about ?
https://twitter.com/adargan95/status/7462462147614720010 -
I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?0
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Yes. We'll end up with something that looks rather like the EEA, although it might not be called that. Free movement might even continue exist in theory, but in practice it will be curtailed substantially by the UK being allowed to discriminate with regard to benefits and welfare payments, charges for healthcare and education etc.Casino_Royale said:
I think the EU will be playing good cop/bad cop over the next few months.Sean_F said:There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
On the one hand, the EU won't want anyone else to leave and to stabilise the whole Union. On the other, they will want to be practical and create a stable long-term deal for the UK that allows strong trading links and close partnership with the EU on a number of issues to continue.0 -
No, but pressure to do so from EU.Luckyguy1983 said:I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?
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I gather Scotland, in a spirit of EU harmony are going to make cars drive on the right - however , as a concession to England, this will only apply to cars with an even number registration mark.MaxPB said:
"Preparing the bill" lol.Jonathan said:
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.MaxPB said:
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.RealBritain said:
I think she must feel confident.FF43 said:I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.0 -
Being useless may not preclude her becoming Tory leader. The Tories have done it before and may feel that Corbyn means they can choose literally anyone to lead them.TCPoliticalBetting said:
A 150 to 1 shot down today to 23/1 and 5th favourite earlier this AM. I take it you did not take up the tips?SouthamObserver said:
Leadsom is the lightweight's lightweight. In fact, she is featherweight.Scott_P said:
And the EU have already said FUanotherDave said:Leadsom this morning was talking about bilateral discussions with the EU, rather than instantly invoking article 50.
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No; said it would be down to his successor.Luckyguy1983 said:I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?
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No. Says that it will be for the next PM to negotiate the EU exit.Luckyguy1983 said:I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?
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I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through0 -
The CTA may become unviable depending on exit terms. Either way, Scotland would be in the same boat as Ireland - but it's far from the biggest problem.MaxPB said:
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.viewcode said:
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUnunu said:
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?GIN1138 said:
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...nunu said:Nicola does not want independence.
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.0 -
I love this notion that if there is plurality of votes for a second IndyRef at Holyrood that Westminster would not transfer the power again.MarkHopkins said:Morris_Dancer said:Sturgeon now on the referendum.
Says option is on the table.
Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.
Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.
It isn't up to Holyrood.
Genuinely hilarious.0 -
He has left that neatly gift-wrapped for whoever takes overLuckyguy1983 said:I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?
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Yeah but this time it actually matters as means that people can secure free movement within Europe.glw said:
You get the same stupid crap with Canadian citizenship after every US election.not_on_fire said:Google reporting a surge in people searching for elgibility for Irish passports
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There has never been any case to suggest that Scotland couldn't leave the UK. But would it be in their interests? Still even now, probably not.viewcode said:
A tumbling GBP/USD rate increases the price of oil (priced in dollars, remember) and as for currency problems, well...MaxPB said:the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUMaxPB said:
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
However, if that's what they choose so be it, but they will need to choose it very soon, or face an article 49 process for application to the EU. And Sturgeon will have to face the possibility that she still might lose, and that would bury Scots independence probably for my lifetime.0 -
He said that should be the decision of the next leader. So not before October (conservative conference).Luckyguy1983 said:I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?
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It's a question if we end up a country in a good position or one in a terrible position. It's too early to say which will be the case, but both are possible.Luckyguy1983 said:
'end terribly'?? Really? Being a country?kle4 said:
Project fear wont work a second time.MaxPB said:
"Preparing the bill" lol.Jonathan said:
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.MaxPB said:
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.RealBritain said:
I think she must feel confident.FF43 said:I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
I'm beginning to see why it's do great to be on the losing side and not have to face consequences for end results - I can already see myself developing buyers remorse at some point far too late, but hopefully things will not be as dire as they look right now, it is too early to know it will end terribly.
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OK, so I decided to have a lie-in after going to bed after 6am
Good "morning" everyone!
The Sunil on Sunday wishes all PBers a very Happy Independence Day!0 -
It doesn't actually count for anything technically, does it? It'd all turn on whether Corbyn felt himself compelled by pressure to stand down.Jobabob said:Hodge has gone for it. Corbyn faces motion of no confidence.
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Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.Sean_F said:You're just panicking.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum
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If only Dave had admitted back in February that the renegotiation was a waste of time and recommended that the British people vote LEAVE.0
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If Leave means EEA with free movement of people then I have the 5000 euros from my UKIP most seats bet to look forward to the proceeds of.0
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Boris needs to ring-fence that £350 million immediately, no matter what else has to be cut or what needs to be borrowed. Otherwise his opponents will use it to destroy him utterly.Scott_P said:
The ones who said shit like this...Indigo said:Which exit fantasists is this he is talking about ?
https://twitter.com/adargan95/status/7462462147614720010 -
Ruth about to respond to Nicola - lets hope she is more measured than Villiers et al !!0
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He's still Prime Minister and has just been given a mandate to negotiate our exit from the EU. The Leavers aren't in power.Stark_Dawning said:
No longer his problem. This is Leaver Land now.JohnLilburne said:So what's happening? Cameron has "resigned" but will still be in place as a lame duck until October. Does he formulate a caretaker government? Appoint a Brexit negotiating team? At least have a cabinet reshuffle? Or just sticks his fingers in his ears and go la la la?
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Ireland opted out of Schengen because we forced the EU to let them. I dont think we could do it for Scotland.FF43 said:
Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.MaxPB said:
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.viewcode said:
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUnunu said:
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?GIN1138 said:
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...nunu said:Nicola does not want independence.
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
Schengen and EMU membership are mandatory and non-negotiable.0 -
We are in the period of peak pain for people who truly believe that the EU is the only viable way forward.Omnium said:If the Scots want another referendum then I guess its their right. I quibble a little with the grounds - they voted to be part of the UK, and now wish to pick and choose whether they accept the results of being in that union.
I think it would be an economic disaster for them. The EU may not exist in two years anyway.
The idea of any London separatism is preposterous in my view. I can't imagine Khan would say anything like that directly.
However, what Scottish and London separatist responses are saying is that they believe their own majority votes count for more than those of the rest of England & Wales.
Now - why not acknowledge it - since England & Wales probably couldn't survive without London, they are also saying they don't care about England & Wales.
Sadly, this is a prime driver of the high Leave vote. E&W has long been aware (as has Scotland) that London doesn't care about the country of which it is the capital. That awareness has mostly been focussed on Westminster but the distinction is hard to spot from outside.
Can we find a different approach? London (and indeed Scotland) wants to stay in the EU. So what can they do to help heal the wounds that E&W has suffered over decades at the hands of people who don't care about them, which has resulted in such a massive disconnect between perceived interests?0 -
Well quite. I don't want the scots to go, but would refusing in that situation be helpful at all? Maybe without the EuroRef vote, but not with it.Alistair said:
I love this notion that if there is plurality of votes for a second IndyRef at Holyrood that Westminster would not transfer the power again.MarkHopkins said:Morris_Dancer said:Sturgeon now on the referendum.
Says option is on the table.
Discussions to be had before decision is taken. When Article 50 is triggered (she thinks it's guaranteed in 3 months), and wants referendum within the 2 year countdown period.
Beginning to prepare legislation for new referendum to occur, if Parliament [Holyrood, I'd guess] votes for it.
It isn't up to Holyrood.
Genuinely hilarious.0 -
Did he say he would invoke Article 50 on the morning of, or was that just the implication?Scott_P said:
He has left that neatly gift-wrapped for whoever takes overLuckyguy1983 said:I didn't hear Cameron's statement - has he invoked Article 50?
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Regarding the CLP and their motion of no confidence in Corbyn. They should be careful that members and CLPs don't call motions of no confidence in them. Too many Labour MPs are massively disconnected from both the party rank and file and now we see the voters as well...0
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It could end in mediocrity or it could end in chaos. Fairly certain is that it will be worse than what we had. Absolutely certain is that what we had is no longer available. We all have to move onkle4 said:
Project fear wont work a second time.MaxPB said:
"Preparing the bill" lol.Jonathan said:
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.MaxPB said:
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.RealBritain said:
I think she must feel confident.FF43 said:I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
I'm beginning to see why it's do great to be on the losing side and not have to face consequences for end results - I can already see myself developing buyers remorse at some point far too late, but hopefully things will not be as dire as they look right now, it is too early to know it will end terribly.0 -
williamglenn said:
The EU could just transfer all the UK's accumulated opt-outs and vetos directly to the newly formed Scottish state.
There are ways round all problems.
Do either of you get the impression that Cameron's renegotiation showed a desire to have more states in the EU with special privileges? Do you think the EU is more or less likely to tolerate the possession of these privileges by a net contributor of forty years standing, than it is to grant them to a newly-joining state with a £8bn hole in its budget?FF43 said:Not necessarily. Every accession country has special protocols attached to its membership. If Ireland can opt out of Schengen, and conjuct Scotland could likely do the same. It would be part of the negotiation.
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Declares UDI which using the GBP as their currency, brave!Jobabob said:
Sturgeon then declares a UDI in the EU. Boris walks straight into her trap.RobD said:
lol, the UK Parliament couldn't refuse a demand for the permission, I don't think.Scott_P said:
I know. Astonishing.williamglenn said:And the Northern Ireland Secretary is on TV, Iraqi Information Minister style, denying that any of this is happening.
Then you get this fckwit
@bernardjenkin: Please someone remind @NicolaSturgeon that a second #scotindyref requires an Act of the U.K. Parliament. @CommonsPACAC0 -
I love how all the people saying Scotland should have a referendum are the people who said the UK shouldn't...0
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Well done on your heroic vote quest! Braved the storm of the gods across a thousand leagues, and cast the vote that saved the land!Sunil_Prasannan said:OK, so I decided to have a lie-in after going to bed after 6am
Good "morning" everyone!
The Sunil on Sunday wishes all PBers a very Happy Independence Day!
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Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.tyson said:I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through0 -
If they do, they will go and vote for Nigel's merry men.
Are UKIP going to disband?0 -
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.anotherDave said:
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.TOPPING said:Hannan saying he wants free movement.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.0 -
Was this a good referendum to lose?Stark_Dawning said:Boris needs to ring-fence that £350 million immediately, no matter what else has to be cut or what needs to be borrowed. Otherwise his opponents will use it to destroy him utterly.
Scott_P said:
The ones who said shit like this...Indigo said:Which exit fantasists is this he is talking about ?
https://twitter.com/adargan95/status/7462462147614720010 -
Unless it's the EU and Ireland.Charles said:
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.Theuniondivvie said:After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.0 -
It's hysterical.Alistair said:I love this notion that if there is plurality of votes for a second IndyRef at Holyrood that Westminster would not transfer the power again.
Genuinely hilarious.
All the shite about democracy, the voice of the people, take back control, for weeks.
"We won't let Scotland do it"0 -
I was staying up for Redbridge, my home local authority, but it finally declared 54% REMAIN, making it more REMAIN than neighbouring Newham (53%), and far more remain than Barking (62 LEAVE) and Havering (70 LEAVE).0
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You don't think the other 5m population countries without those opt-outs and vetos might slightly object ?williamglenn said:
Everything is on the table and up for negotiation. Scotland is currently in the EU by virtue of being part of the UK.MaxPB said:
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.viewcode said:
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EUnunu said:
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?GIN1138 said:
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...nunu said:Nicola does not want independence.
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
The EU could just transfer all the UK's accumulated opt-outs and vetos directly to the newly formed Scottish state.
There are ways round all problems.0 -
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?Thrak said:
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.tyson said:I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
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It's the Sunil Wat Dun it.Sunil_Prasannan said:OK, so I decided to have a lie-in after going to bed after 6am
Good "morning" everyone!
The Sunil on Sunday wishes all PBers a very Happy Independence Day!0 -
@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt0
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It's the Sunil wot WON it, actuallyweejonnie said:
It's the Sunil Wat Dun it.Sunil_Prasannan said:OK, so I decided to have a lie-in after going to bed after 6am
Good "morning" everyone!
The Sunil on Sunday wishes all PBers a very Happy Independence Day!
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You will have seen that our beloved Borough voted almost 60-40 to Remain....ironic that it was local canvassing that caused me the first insight/concern about Leave's strength. Wrong for the right reason or right for the wrong onetaffys said:If they do, they will go and vote for Nigel's merry men.
Are UKIP going to disband?
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'We' had a referendum?Charles said:
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.Theuniondivvie said:After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.
You get to have an opinion on the matter, but not one that anyone in Scotland has to take account of.0 -
I certainly don't wish that and I fully respect the result. However, clearly Sindy2 has to be a worry. I also am very nervous about the timetable now being followed by 'Leave'. The lack of urgency to get things moving is potentially going to extend the instability - at my age I tend to focus on the short/medium term!Sean_F said:There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
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"Fallout at work. Just out of an emergency conference call.
One customer has had orders cancelled already from their largest German customers on the basis that they want security of supply. This customers represented about 40% of their turnover. The businesses is not viable without this turnover. The MD is asking for help to keep the business going but it looks like administrators will have to be appointed. His, mainly manual workers all said that they were going to vote out - turkeys voting for Christmas! About 25 people will be impacted straight away - laid off.
Another customer's business model is to buy branded goods cheaply in the EU and sell them here at a mark up - but cheaper than official sources. It is a large employer - 200+ staff. Their business model ceases to exist as the copyright holders of the goods have made it clear that the moment that they can prevent this channel they will (see Levi vs Tesco).
Credit insurance companies have been sending us new limits from 8AM. Most limits are lower which means that to we have to reduce lending to customers."
http://tinyurl.com/zzr7jes0 -
#TakeBackControl*Scott_P said:
It's hysterical.Alistair said:I love this notion that if there is plurality of votes for a second IndyRef at Holyrood that Westminster would not transfer the power again.
Genuinely hilarious.
All the shite about democracy, the voice of the people, take back control, for weeks.
"We won't let Scotland do it"
* Does not apply North of Berwick0 -
Banging on about the legal framework which should be followed, only to bypass it themselvesScott_P said:@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt
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Will Scotland be REALLY independent, if she stays in the EU?Jobabob said:calum said:Ruth about to respond to Nicola - lets hope she is more measured than Villiers et al !!
The Ruth masterstroke would be reluctantly accept independence, as a price worth paying to stay in the EU.
Won't happen though.0 -
Sounds like gossip from an MEP with no idea of what's going to happen.Scott_P said:@jamesmatesitv: Hearing suggestions in Brussels the EU cd regard the referendum itself as the request to leave, triggering Article 50 over heads of Br Govt
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If I were the Scots, I'd do it. And I say that as someone who has always been staunchly pro-union.Scott_P said:
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.Sean_F said:You're just panicking.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum0 -
It's too late for that, or 15 years too early. Many of us, me included, woukd have voted for that, but there's no way 27 eu nations agree a form of associate membership in time. Or even if they did, that they would offer it to us.TOPPING said:
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.anotherDave said:
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.TOPPING said:Hannan saying he wants free movement.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
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Hi CR,Casino_Royale said:
Don't forget WWIII.tyson said:I think 24th July will now go down as Calamity Day as opposed to Independence Day.
What with our disastrous choice, the sight of the BoE Governor desperately shoring up the banks, the end of Cameron, the Scots going Nat, the Nats rebirth in Ireland, the Eurocrats putting us to the sword, the assassination attack on Corbyn, and the prospect of Sadiq setting up an Independent Islamic Republic of London...I think that just about sums it up.
I've sent you a rather rambling PM.0 -
I've got the horrible feeling that Boris, like a few Leavers on here, really just wanted a narrow Remain. It would allow a few quick fixes (zap Dave) without any lasting damage. Such thinking has proved a touch dangerous.Scott_P said:
Not panicked at all. I am less concerned about Scottish secession than at any point in my life.Sean_F said:You're just panicking.
The political tectonic plates have shifted. You could see it on the faces of Boris and Give at the presser this morning.
"Oh, shit, what have we done...?"
@janemerrick23: Absurdity of people who just voted Leave saying Scotland can't have a 2nd referendum0 -
He will try to cling on like a slug David.david_herdson said:
It doesn't actually count for anything technically, does it? It'd all turn on whether Corbyn felt himself compelled by pressure to stand down.Jobabob said:Hodge has gone for it. Corbyn faces motion of no confidence.
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Online poll at French news site says 62% (out of some odd 70k online voters) "satisfied" with the results of the referendum. So apparently the feeling is mutual on both sides of the Channel. http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2016/06/24/01003-20160624QCMWWW00058-tes-vous-satisfait-du-resultat-du-referendum-au-royaume-uni.php0
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I'm shocked by the lack of seriousness displayed by this post.Charles said:
Well Scotland doesn't have a desire for sovereignty and self-determination.Theuniondivvie said:After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
We had a referendum, remember, and a majority voted to stay in the UK. The will of the people should be respected - you don't get to ask the question again and again.
Remember what your French diplomatic source said a few months ago? Sturgeon and Salmond will make sure it happens.0 -
OK. Didn't see that.TOPPING said:
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.anotherDave said:
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.TOPPING said:Hannan saying he wants free movement.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Whatever happens, I don't think it will include free movement. That was too much of an issue in the campaign.
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It is certainly true that like Labour members, ordinary working class punters long for more immigration, the cancellation of Trident and the expansion of the overseas aid budget.RochdalePioneers said:Regarding the CLP and their motion of no confidence in Corbyn. They should be careful that members and CLPs don't call motions of no confidence in them. Too many Labour MPs are massively disconnected from both the party rank and file and now we see the voters as well...
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What problem? It shifts the 'border' so they don't have to cope with the crap in Calais. If the people there want to get to the UK they can now just let them go ahead.anotherDave said:
Because the french government want to give themselves another problem to solve?Thrak said:
Calais might happen very quickly. The French have nothing stopping them saying goodbye to British customs there.tyson said:I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through
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Give it a fecking break, there is no evidence anything close to that is happening or going to happen, not in the IMFs figures, not even in the fantasy George Osborne "Project Fear" figures, you are just running around bleeding on everyone and frankly looking a bit of a fool.tyson said:I wonder how the great unwashed will feel when their trips to Benidorm cost double.
We will have a return to the halcyon Duty Free Travel Shopping, and the booze cruise. At least the Jungle will no longer exist as the French just pass the migrants through0 -
Don't tell me the Leave poster boy was winging it??kle4 said:
It's too late for that, or 15 years too early. Many of us, me included, woukd have voted for that, but there's no way 27 eu nations agree a form of associate membership in time. Or even if they did, that they would offer it to us.TOPPING said:
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.anotherDave said:
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.TOPPING said:Hannan saying he wants free movement.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.0 -
Might want to listen to it again. I heard "in the market but outside political union" and "part of the free movement of goods and services but outside the political stuff, the citizenship and so on."TOPPING said:
He just told Andrew Neil he thinks some kind of associate membership including free trade and free movement should be back on the table.anotherDave said:
Not quite. This morning he was saying control over numbers, who came in, and no citizen rights (welfare/voting) for economic migrants from the EU.TOPPING said:Hannan saying he wants free movement.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.0
