They are going to find that everything is their problem now. So then exit fantasist, it is time to make good on your histrionic promise of liberty. Everything that happens is on your watch. All the tribulations and vicissitudes of the economy are yours. The pound fell to its lowest point since 1985 and the Bank of England is poised to intervene. Standard and Poor’s have said that the UK will lose its fine credit rating. The stock market was down 8.5 per cent in early trading. This is not just a downgrade in the value of assets. It is a leading indicator of the financial turmoil to come. If there is a recession, it is your recession. If inflation goes up and interest rates follow with an attendant spate of repossessions, it’s all yours. Well done.
And for what, exit fantasist? For what? The notion that Britain was not free until the early hours of this morning is the single most childish claim I have ever heard in British politics.
The outstanding feature for me was that well over 17 million genuine, fair-minded people were prepared to vote LEAVE, despite all the serious dangers of doing so.
That's not what happened.
The polling showed that people voting out perceived no dangers.
They didn't listen to experts. They bought Boris's sunny uplands bullshit. And many of them are about to be very surprised, and somewhat aggrieved I think.
Equally plausible that this was the one time those 17 million could make their voice heard and they felt that things needed to change, no matter what....
Many of the nearly half of the British people who voted remain now feel scared and angry, ready to lash out at their fellow citizens. But this will make things worse. Many of the leavers already felt marginalised, ignored and hated. The contempt – and sometimes snobbery – now being shown about leavers on social media was already felt by these communities, and contributed to this verdict. Millions of Britons feel that a metropolitan elite rules the roost which not only doesn’t understand their values and lives, but actively hates them. If Britain is to have a future, this escalating culture war has to be stopped. The people of Britain have spoken. That is democracy, and we now have to make the country’s verdict work.
Owen Jones is right on the money, and Meeks disgraceful sneering earlier demonstrates his point precisely.
She now has the leverage to get a red-carpet deal from Brussels before holding the vote to rubber-stamp it. All of the 'leap into the unknown' objections will disappear.
No, she doesn't. The EU just lost a massive net contributor, so there's no money to be had: they won't get favourable treatment, such as opt-outs on VAT or EMU or a continued rebate, because it's a small country and the other small countries won't wear it. If it wants the financial services companies that are apparently going to flee Britain, it's going to be competing with Frankfurt for them.
More importantly, Britain has a veto over the negotiations as long as it's part of the EU; and it's not going to allow time that could be used for negotiating its exit to be taken up with negotiating Scotland's entry.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
Not sensible. But Leave wasn't sensible either. We'll see what happens.
This was exacerbated by the stupid approach Cameron in particular took. You can't persuade people you're calling racist.
It's hard to see why getting lots of bankers, CEOs, foreign politicians, and other assorted big wigs to threaten us, and also calling us ignorant racists backfired. It looked like a winner to me.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
However ridiculous to not mention it, I dont think she'd have done so unless she intended to go ahead with it and thought she'd win. I don't think it's positioning.
She now has the leverage to get a red-carpet deal from Brussels before holding the vote to rubber-stamp it. All of the 'leap into the unknown' objections will disappear.
A great fillip for the EU too - 'Yes, UK voted Brexit but its smarter half wants to remain.' They'd love to see England out on a limb.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Yes, PM Boris is going to pulled in all directions by London, Scotland, UKIP and the hard Right: all with their own agendas and all absolutely willing him to fail. On top of that he's now got to negotiate with the EU. This is going to turn into a real bugger's muddle.
There's another issue which is not Corbyn's views but his competence. That's what the referendum exposed: he can't campaign worth a damn, perhaps doesn't think he needs to try. Corbyn in a general election would, I suspect, be equally disengaged and feeble.
But the Labour "moderates" were some of the senior figures in the Remain Campaign. They can't be very competent either, otherwise the referendum strategy which they helped design wouldn't have been such a complete failure.
We have the May local elections to judge a Corbyn strategy on so far -- while they weren't exactly a runaway success, it was still more of a success than the Referendum strategy that the "moderates" designed.
The leader failed to lead.
Forget about the moderates. The Tories are in engaged in an open civil war and their leader has just resigned. Don't you think the Labour party, which Corbyn leads, should be doing ever so slightly better than it is currently? Why aren't you making more demands of him? Why do you excuse his failure to take the battle to the Tories? Why do you sit back and allow debates over issues such as Trident to dominate party discourse? Why do you tolerate the ham-fisted incompetence of his advisers? Even if you support him, shouldn't you be wanting more from him?
Have some heart the people who turned out for the first time might make a habit of it and they certainly won't vote Tory!
My own feeling is that the civil war point would have been stronger with a remain win. Certainly there will be a minority of Tories who will feel that their party has headed off in a very unfortunate direction, and a few may leave - but given the views of most Tory MPs and members I expect the splits will be less significant now.
The problem the Tories will face is the revenge of the electorate down the track, when the wild promises and false assumptions they have offered during the campaign start to unravel, when they compromise and betray the true antis, and when some of the Fear stuff turns out to have been well founded...
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
She now has the leverage to get a red-carpet deal from Brussels before holding the vote to rubber-stamp it. All of the 'leap into the unknown' objections will disappear.
Britain has a veto over the negotiations as long as it's part of the EU; and it's not going to allow time that could be used for negotiating its exit to be taken up with negotiating Scotland's entry.
Does it? I thought the EU27 discuss among themselves then tell us what the deal is - if we don't agree by the end of 24 months we're out and WTO rules apply.
If the Scots want another referendum then I guess its their right. I quibble a little with the grounds - they voted to be part of the UK, and now wish to pick and choose whether they accept the results of being in that union.
That indeed should be be the case. That it is not, that most of them probably agree with sturgeon on this and indeed many in England would have complained had positions been reversed, is one reason I felt the risk of Brexit was not as high as it seemed, since the Union links were in fact still so tenuous now regardless. Scotland was heading for the exit already. If staying in assured them staying I woukd have voted to remain.
I am finding the reality distressing though. There were no good options, thanks to the arrogance and intransigence of the EU, but while there's hope, we might well become a basket case.
Danny565-"Certainly, Corbyn could and should be doing much better.
But I can't "forget about the moderates", because they are the only alternative to Corbyn. With respect, your argument is rather like saying that anyone who dislikes any aspects of the EU should've voted to Leave without question, without considering whether the alternative would be worse. And everything I've heard "anecdotally" in my neck of the woods, combined with what I've heard from "moderate" MPs, tells me the "moderates" have even less feel for the public mood than Corbyn does."
Fellow leadership candidate Burnham was spot on about the public mood months ago
After months of piteous bleating about a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination, what a relief it'll be for the PB Brexitories to get back to their comfort zone of applauding a scaremongering, dishonest, bullying government trampling on a country's desire for sovereignty and self determination.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/eu-referendum-working-class-revolt-grieve "Many of the nearly half of the British people who voted remain now feel scared and angry, ready to lash out at their fellow citizens. But this will make things worse. Many of the leavers already felt marginalised, ignored and hated. The contempt – and sometimes snobbery – now being shown about leavers on social media was already felt by these communities, and contributed to this verdict. Millions of Britons feel that a metropolitan elite rules the roost which not only doesn’t understand their values and lives, but actively hates them. If Britain is to have a future, this escalating culture war has to be stopped. The people of Britain have spoken. That is democracy, and we now have to make the country’s verdict work."
Owen Jones is right on the money (not a sentence I except to use very often!), and Meeks disgraceful sneering earlier demonstrates his point precisely.
I agree that we need to show each other respect. Despite being a Remainer, I found almost all the support for Remain from friends on Facebook to be cringeworthy at best. There is still a significant amount of racism in the UK, but most Leave voters are not racists. Wanting to control immigration is not racism and it isn't xenophobia.
But I don't feel any responsibility "to make the country's verdict work". Remainers should continue to campaign for membership of the EU, just like Scots Nationalists have continued to campign for Scottish independence. The people who want to leave the EU will have to arrange the UK exit, and if there any bits of the process or deal that the rest of us don't like, we won't accept them.
Sorry Peter- the forgive and forget doesn't cut it. This was a binary, winner takes all vote. The leave used a racist campaign- they went for the jugular with immigration knowing that it would be the catalyst to mobilise the WWC.
The acrimony of the referendum will last a long time....especially as many of the predictions of project fear come to the fore.
Is this another Tyson Antoinette emoting about understanding the working classes post ?
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
Yes, PM Boris is going to pulled in all directions by London, Scotland, UKIP and the hard Right: all with their own agendas and all absolutely willing him to fail. On top of that he's now got to negotiate with the EU. This is going to turn into a real bugger's muddle.
In a nutshell. Nevertheless the people have spoken. Neither they nor the leaders that directed their choice have a clue. But they have made their choice. Johnson or whoever will have to make the best of it and the rest of us are going along for the ride.
However, he was also saying during last year's leadership contest that Labour should be a "leading voice" in the Remain Campaign, and that "if Labour isn't internationalist then it isn't anything".
And I say that as one of the approximately 3 people who gave Burnham my first preference in both of the last leadership contests.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.
The lesson for the pollsters is trust your figures, and don't make last-minute adjustments to cover your backs.
Without last minute adjustments, the eve of poll numbers would have been:-
TNS 54/46, Opinium 51/49, Yougov 50/50, Survation 49/51, ORB 49/51, MORI 49/51, a creditable performance.
Fair point.
As I said earlier, I don't think the polling was that bad. The overall picture was of a very close contest and that's what it was. People who backed Remain seemed to be doing so in the face of polling evidence, not because of it. When I was holding onto a Leave position for weeks it was the polls that encouraged me.
Conspiracy musings - Cameron & Johnson had a deal to take charge of each side knowing that their intention would be to preserve free trade and movement. Far fetched but, if Johnson bottles immigration, then it could gain traction in certain circles. Were both, in fact, and not just Cameron taking one for the team?!
With regard for Labour, surely the disconnect is fairly easy to repair-for Corbyn in particular.
Having exited, immigration from the EU ceases to be an issue (though non-EU immigration may well be). The issue then is what sort of autonomy is wanted, and I can see that the workers state may be a popular option.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
The argument that Scotland should seek independence only to surrender sovereignty to Brussels has always seemed odd to me,
But not so different from the many leavers arguing we should ditch the EU and stick much closer to the USA. The immediate neighbour is more easily resented.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.
I think she will see how it turns out. Put it in motion and trigger the go ahead if she sees she is likely to win. The chances of winning have to be higher than they were yesterday.
Mr. Indigo, I agree. Owen Jones is actually talking sense.
This is a very peculiar day.
It's a very weird day indeed when you and I find ourselves in agreement with Owen Jones.
Good to see at least one metropolitan middle-class leftie with his eyes open to what happened last night, but it's clear the Labour Party are in as big a mess today as the Conservatives when it comes to what happens next.
With regard for Labour, surely the disconnect is fairly easy to repair-for Corbyn in particular.
Having exited, immigration from the EU ceases to be an issue (though non-EU immigration may well be). The issue then is what sort of autonomy is wanted, and I can see that the workers state may be a popular option.
But the PLP doesn't see it that way. They feel betrayed by Corbyn; they couldn't give a flying fuck what their voters have just voted for.
"More on joint efforts by Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to secure some kind of referendum opt out for Scotland and London.
Here’s what Sturgeon said:
I have made it clear to the prime minister this morning that the Scottish government must be fully and directly involved in any and all decisions about the next steps that the UK government intends to take. We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the President of the European Commission. I also be communicated over the weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU and I intend to discussion all options for doing so. I have also spoken this morning with [London] mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London, so there is clear common cause between us. Khan’s office confirmed that he has talked to Sturgeon about the need for Scotland and London to be involved in Brexit negotiations."
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
And the Northern Ireland Secretary is on TV, Iraqi Information Minister style, denying that any of this is happening.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
I think the EU will be playing good cop/bad cop over the next few months.
On the one hand, the EU won't want anyone else to leave and to stabilise the whole Union. On the other, they will want to be practical and create a stable long-term deal for the UK that allows strong trading links and close partnership with the EU on a number of issues to continue.
They are going to find that everything is their problem now. So then exit fantasist, it is time to make good on your histrionic promise of liberty. Everything that happens is on your watch. All the tribulations and vicissitudes of the economy are yours. The pound fell to its lowest point since 1985 and the Bank of England is poised to intervene. Standard and Poor’s have said that the UK will lose its fine credit rating. The stock market was down 8.5 per cent in early trading. This is not just a downgrade in the value of assets. It is a leading indicator of the financial turmoil to come. If there is a recession, it is your recession. If inflation goes up and interest rates follow with an attendant spate of repossessions, it’s all yours. Well done.
And for what, exit fantasist? For what? The notion that Britain was not free until the early hours of this morning is the single most childish claim I have ever heard in British politics.
Hello again, everyone. It's been a while, But fascinating events, so I had to check in. Two things: 1) I checked here last night (early morning for you) and everyone apparently "knew" Remain had won. Shows how politics and elections can always shock and surprise you, no matter how informed you are. 2) If I'm not mistaken, this referendum only happened because Cameron committed to it if Cons gained a majority at the last election. From his perspective at least, what a Pyrrhic victory that majority "win" turned out to be. One virtually unforeseen triumph begat another virtually unforeseen defeat.
"More on joint efforts by Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to secure some kind of referendum opt out for Scotland and London.
Here’s what Sturgeon said:
I have made it clear to the prime minister this morning that the Scottish government must be fully and directly involved in any and all decisions about the next steps that the UK government intends to take. We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the President of the European Commission. I also be communicated over the weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU and I intend to discussion all options for doing so. I have also spoken this morning with [London] mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London, so there is clear common cause between us. Khan’s office confirmed that he has talked to Sturgeon about the need for Scotland and London to be involved in Brexit negotiations."
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
But most people don't care. They got up and went to work as normal (well, I didn't, but then I'm a Geek). If this leads to Scotland/NI going their own ways, then so be it. I won't mind too much.
So what you are telling me is that Labour should become a party that advocates strong immigration controls. I have a feeling that plenty of Labour moderates would not have a huge problem with that. But I know someone who would. And what do you think WWC voters think about giving up Trident? Or any of the other issues that Jezza feels strongly about? Where is his connection with Labour's voters? How does he speak to them? How does he connect? By not going near them? is that really what leadership is all about?
Why do you say that Labour moderates wouldn't have a problem with immigration controls? That is generally one of the few issues where the "moderates" say Labour should take an unequivocally liberal stance and not "pander" to public opinion. Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna said even ED MILIBAND was too tough on immigration for their liking.
I agree that Jezza's stance on Trident and his general hippyish "Kumbaya" approach to terrorists will not go down well with the WWC, but on economic issues, he is much more in tune than the "moderates" are -- with Jezza, there is atleast the chance that WWC voters will overlook their disagreement with Labour on cultural issues if they atleast think they're being offered a chance to shake up the economy and make it work for them.
Except that there is absolutely no evidence to suggest that is the case. And Corbyn seeks to avoid them. You may want to take a closer look at what the moderates - the ones that understand there has to be some compromise to gain power and that being in power means the likes of Gove and Johnson cannot be - have said about immigration.
I have a horrible feeling that too many Labour members would be happy with PM Bozza if it meant that someone who once may have expressed some support for Tony Blair could be kept away from office.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.
"Preparing the bill" lol.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices Currency problems No EMU opt out if they join No schengen opt out if they join No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
When are people going to realise who they are dealing with here? Sturgeon is the supreme political master of her generation. She won't be floating this idea unless she thinks she has got a real chance of winning it. DavidL is bang on – her strategy will be to push it through before the EU-lite model Boris is after comes into force (as the average Joe won't notice the difference).
Sturgeon is Salmond with double the charisma and twice the nous.
Conspiracy musings - Cameron & Johnson had a deal to take charge of each side knowing that their intention would be to preserve free trade and movement. Far fetched but, if Johnson bottles immigration, then it could gain traction in certain circles. Were both, in fact, and not just Cameron taking one for the team?!
Interesting theory, but I suspect Boris's eyes lit up and he just blundered into it without much thought. He'll now go for crypto-EU-membership in the hope (probably forlorn) that it will minimise the damage and placate the necessary people.
"More on joint efforts by Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to secure some kind of referendum opt out for Scotland and London.
Here’s what Sturgeon said:
I have made it clear to the prime minister this morning that the Scottish government must be fully and directly involved in any and all decisions about the next steps that the UK government intends to take. We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the President of the European Commission. I also be communicated over the weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU and I intend to discussion all options for doing so. I have also spoken this morning with [London] mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London, so there is clear common cause between us. Khan’s office confirmed that he has talked to Sturgeon about the need for Scotland and London to be involved in Brexit negotiations."
The London-Scotland axis is already here.
It's not a joke.
No, but it is a fantasy.
We will see. The economic factors may be the key driver.
She now has the leverage to get a red-carpet deal from Brussels before holding the vote to rubber-stamp it. All of the 'leap into the unknown' objections will disappear.
Britain has a veto over the negotiations as long as it's part of the EU; and it's not going to allow time that could be used for negotiating its exit to be taken up with negotiating Scotland's entry.
Does it? I thought the EU27 discuss among themselves then tell us what the deal is - if we don't agree by the end of 24 months we're out and WTO rules apply.
Nope, that's a misinterpretation of Paragraph 4, Article 50. All it says is that the UK can't participate in the internal EU discussions on its own deal- which is logical, otherwise it'd be negotiating on both sides of the table. The misunderstanding went round the media for a few weeks before being comprehensively debunked, but evidently it has a long half-life.
It certainly doesn't prevent Britain from acting in all other respects as a full member of the EU, which multiple leading European figures have confirmed today. Hence, a veto over accession negotiations.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.
Hardly. She wouldn't have raised it now if she didn't think it was on. She is preparing the bill. Wake up.
"Preparing the bill" lol.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices Currency problems No EMU opt out if they join No schengen opt out if they join No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
Brexit proves that short-term economic arguments don't always carry the day. There will be no appetite for Boris' Britain North of the border.
Juncker should resign. But he won't. And there is no way of getting him out. That's one reason why Brexit is a thing today.
That's not true, the European Parliament did for the Santer commission, under pressure from their own electorates, and if there was a good reason to get rid of Juncker they could do the same for him. There isn't, however: The British have been narked off with the EU since forever, and Leave's victory was big enough that it's hard to imagine anything he could have done to swing it.
I haven't heard Sturgeon but I suspect the Edinburgh/London axis is positioning. Sturgeon and Khan are putting themselves forwards as masters of their realms who got a mandate in their respective territories. They are claiming a blocking vote on any post-EU settlement against weak leadership in the national Tory and labour parties.
The referendum may be part of that positioning. It may be real if Sturgeon thinks she can win it.
I think she must feel confident.
Probably not since she has put a two year timetable on it, if she was confident she would demand one by the end of the year or before Dave resigns.
I think she will see how it turns out. Put it in motion and trigger the go ahead if she sees she is likely to win. The chances of winning have to be higher than they were yesterday.
Possibly higher, it's not clear cut though. Once the mist clears I don't think it will be different to 2014.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
But most people don't care. They got up and went to work as normal (well, I didn't, but then I'm a Geek). If this leads to Scotland/NI going their own ways, then so be it. I won't mind too much.
That's just saying that you don't care if the UK is destroyed politically, not that it's not happening.
I think 24th July will now go down as Calamity Day as opposed to Independence Day.
What with our disastrous choice, the sight of the BoE Governor desperately shoring up the banks, the end of Cameron, the Scots going Nat, the Nats rebirth in Ireland, the Eurocrats putting us to the sword, the assassination attack on Corbyn, and the prospect of Sadiq setting up an Independent Islamic Republic of London...I think that just about sums it up.
"More on joint efforts by Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon and London Mayor Sadiq Khan to secure some kind of referendum opt out for Scotland and London.
Here’s what Sturgeon said:
I have made it clear to the prime minister this morning that the Scottish government must be fully and directly involved in any and all decisions about the next steps that the UK government intends to take. We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the President of the European Commission. I also be communicated over the weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU and I intend to discussion all options for doing so. I have also spoken this morning with [London] mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London, so there is clear common cause between us. Khan’s office confirmed that he has talked to Sturgeon about the need for Scotland and London to be involved in Brexit negotiations."
The London-Scotland axis is already here.
It's not a joke.
No, but it is a fantasy.
We will see. The economic factors may be the key driver.
Explain the economic factors which link Scotland (and in particular SNP Scotland) and London.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
Yep. She will already be one step ahead there. This woman thinks about 1,000 things before most of us finish breakfast.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
I think the EU will be playing good cop/bad cop over the next few months.
On the one hand, the EU won't want anyone else to leave and to stabilise the whole Union. On the other, they will want to be practical and create a stable long-term deal for the UK that allows strong trading links and close partnership with the EU on a number of issues to continue.
Agreed. But the first is the overriding priority for the EU. The UK is out of the picture. The subsequent arrangement with the UK is important but secondary. As the EU has the whiphand over any deal with the UK, it doesn't have to worry about it too much at this stage,
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
Scottish independence isn't in the gift of Nicola Sturgeon; Irish unification isn't in the gift of Sinn Fein; the Conservatives will elect a new leader; the economy will continue much the same.
Conspiracy musings - Cameron & Johnson had a deal to take charge of each side knowing that their intention would be to preserve free trade and movement. Far fetched but, if Johnson bottles immigration, then it could gain traction in certain circles. Were both, in fact, and not just Cameron taking one for the team?!
I think, and have said so before, that there is something in that. Boris and Gove are both Cameroons, there was clearly a choice made (possibly at that famous dinner before they defected) to continue the Cameroon project regardless of the outcome of the referendum, with minimal concessions made to the voters in terms of immigration and sovereignty. How much of the rancor since is genuine, and how much for public consumption, we can only guess at. I think its a dangerous game, and if played careless could leave the Kippers with 30 seats and the balance of power in the next parliament.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
Scottish independence isn't in the gift of Nicola Sturgeon; Irish unification isn't in the gift of Sinn Fein; the Conservatives will elect a new leader; the economy will continue much the same.
Power is lying in the streets. They are just picking it up.
They still have the same economic/currency questions to answer as before. Pound or Euro? How are you gonna pay the bills with North Sea Oil prices up and down all the time...
But if they can solve the fundamentals and the Scot's want to leave, I wish them well.
Also will there be a border between E.U Scotland and non E.U England?
IF UK leaves EU and the Republic of Ireland stays in the EU AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
No, because Ireland is in the CTA, Scotland would have to join Schengen on joining the EU.
With regard for Labour, surely the disconnect is fairly easy to repair-for Corbyn in particular.
Having exited, immigration from the EU ceases to be an issue (though non-EU immigration may well be). The issue then is what sort of autonomy is wanted, and I can see that the workers state may be a popular option.
But the PLP doesn't see it that way. They feel betrayed by Corbyn; they couldn't give a flying fuck what their voters have just voted for.
The reason to turf out Jezza is because he couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.
The new leader has their hands on immigration conveniently tied, so that objection by the WC is disarmed and Labour can run on an anti-austerity "ourselves alone" ticket.
I think 24th July will now go down as Calamity Day as opposed to Independence Day.
What with our disastrous choice, the sight of the BoE Governor desperately shoring up the banks, the end of Cameron, the Scots going Nat, the Nats rebirth in Ireland, the Eurocrats putting us to the sword, the assassination attack on Corbyn, and the prospect of Sadiq setting up an Independent Islamic Republic of London...I think that just about sums it up.
It's actually panning out worse than I thought it would, and I thought it would be pretty damn bad.
There do seem to quite a few posters today who are hoping that Brexit will destroy the UK politically and economically. I don't think those hopes will materialise.
Are you really trying to deny the UK is not already destroyed politically?
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
But most people don't care. They got up and went to work as normal (well, I didn't, but then I'm a Geek). If this leads to Scotland/NI going their own ways, then so be it. I won't mind too much.
That's just saying that you don't care if the UK is destroyed politically, not that it's not happening.
Many Leavers consider themselves to be English not British.
Comments
And for what, exit fantasist? For what? The notion that Britain was not free until the early hours of this morning is the single most childish claim I have ever heard in British politics.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/it-will-take-an-age-to-recover-from-this-victory-for-the-exit-fantasists-zzfpxsc66
well bloody said
More importantly, Britain has a veto over the negotiations as long as it's part of the EU; and it's not going to allow time that could be used for negotiating its exit to be taken up with negotiating Scotland's entry.
This is a very peculiar day.
Oh and never use a telephone. Ever again.
The problem the Tories will face is the revenge of the electorate down the track, when the wild promises and false assumptions they have offered during the campaign start to unravel, when they compromise and betray the true antis, and when some of the Fear stuff turns out to have been well founded...
Given that the IMF recanted their own forecast, and Germany has not declared war on the continent, they were right to do so.
I am finding the reality distressing though. There were no good options, thanks to the arrogance and intransigence of the EU, but while there's hope, we might well become a basket case.
Fellow leadership candidate Burnham was spot on about the public mood months ago
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/andy-burnham-bets-britain-will-back-brexit_uk_56e6a922e4b03fb88edde155
But I don't feel any responsibility "to make the country's verdict work". Remainers should continue to campaign for membership of the EU, just like Scots Nationalists have continued to campign for Scottish independence. The people who want to leave the EU will have to arrange the UK exit, and if there any bits of the process or deal that the rest of us don't like, we won't accept them.
Nation states will determine the way forward, not the commission.
And I say that as one of the approximately 3 people who gave Burnham my first preference in both of the last leadership contests.
BREAKING: a motion of no confidence in Leader of the Parliamentary Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn has been tabled
As I said earlier, I don't think the polling was that bad. The overall picture was of a very close contest and that's what it was. People who backed Remain seemed to be doing so in the face of polling evidence, not because of it. When I was holding onto a Leave position for weeks it was the polls that encouraged me.
Having exited, immigration from the EU ceases to be an issue (though non-EU immigration may well be). The issue then is what sort of autonomy is wanted, and I can see that the workers state may be a popular option.
@IanDunt: Since breakfast, economy has tumbled, PM has resigned, Scotland is making new bid for independence & Labour about to take out its leader.
Something new will emerge in it's place, but the UK political settlement as was is gone
Let's all hope the new is better. Omens are not good.
Good to see at least one metropolitan middle-class leftie with his eyes open to what happened last night, but it's clear the Labour Party are in as big a mess today as the Conservatives when it comes to what happens next.
Here’s what Sturgeon said:
I have made it clear to the prime minister this morning that the Scottish government must be fully and directly involved in any and all decisions about the next steps that the UK government intends to take.
We will also be seeking direct discussions with the EU institutions and its member states including the earliest possible meeting with the President of the European Commission.
I also be communicated over the weekend with each EU member state to make clear that Scotland has voted to stay in the EU and I intend to discussion all options for doing so.
I have also spoken this morning with [London] mayor Sadiq Khan and he is clear that he shares this objective for London, so there is clear common cause between us.
Khan’s office confirmed that he has talked to Sturgeon about the need for Scotland and London to be involved in Brexit negotiations."
The London-Scotland axis is already here.
It's not a joke.
On the one hand, the EU won't want anyone else to leave and to stabilise the whole Union. On the other, they will want to be practical and create a stable long-term deal for the UK that allows strong trading links and close partnership with the EU on a number of issues to continue.
I have a horrible feeling that too many Labour members would be happy with PM Bozza if it meant that someone who once may have expressed some support for Tony Blair could be kept away from office.
Nothing has changed for Scotland. She knows this which is why she is playing for time. Once the shock wears off and life continues almost as normal the fundamentals for Scotland are:
Low oil prices
Currency problems
No EMU opt out if they join
No schengen opt out if they join
No Barnett
EU membership may end up detracting from the independence case for Scotland, especially now that there is a real chance of there being a border between England and Scotland.
Sturgeon is Salmond with double the charisma and twice the nous.
Still not sure what she is up to with Sadiq...
Then you get this fckwit
@bernardjenkin: Please someone remind @NicolaSturgeon that a second #scotindyref requires an Act of the U.K. Parliament. @CommonsPACAC
It certainly doesn't prevent Britain from acting in all other respects as a full member of the EU, which multiple leading European figures have confirmed today. Hence, a veto over accession negotiations.
AND it remains possible for there to be an open border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland
THEN it is possible to have an open border between EU Scotland and non EU England, and Sturgeon will certainly argue that to be true.
What with our disastrous choice, the sight of the BoE Governor desperately shoring up the banks, the end of Cameron, the Scots going Nat, the Nats rebirth in Ireland, the Eurocrats putting us to the sword, the assassination attack on Corbyn, and the prospect of Sadiq setting up an Independent Islamic Republic of London...I think that just about sums it up.
I don't suppose any of the 17m Leavers will notice.
Or in large parts to the South, to be sure.
The new leader has their hands on immigration conveniently tied, so that objection by the WC is disarmed and Labour can run on an anti-austerity "ourselves alone" ticket.