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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

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  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Nearly 75% turnout in the East Riding of Yorkshire (LEAVE)


    Just over 64% turnout in Liverpool (REMAIN)

  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Pollsters not covering themselves in glory tonight – so far at least. #whatashame

    That Kipper's own poll is more accurate so far speaks volumes.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    SeanT said:

    It really is over. We're out. WE HAVE LEFT THE EUROPEAN UNION
    This is the greatest UK political event of my lifetime.

    So Scotland might go. Good for them, if that's what they want.

    England has determined her future.

    More importantly, a sovereign people has stood up and said: FUCK YOU

    We haven't left yet and won't for a while.

    It'll be in about two years, give or take.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Fractional Remain bonus in Edinburgh..
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    Online > Telephone ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Lowlander said:

    Lady Nugee is looking utterly distraught on Sky right now.

    Maybe some of the Labour elite should do more to understand why their voters have deserted them on this issue.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,269
    Big win in Edinburgh but you just feel not enough.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 171
    Feel proud to have called it for Leave all the way through! Been leafleting solidly for weeks and meeting ordinary people. This has changed me and will change our country profoundly.For the better in both cases.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Faragists and their friends on the far right to replace them instead.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    hunchman said:

    Edinburgh nearly 75% LOL

    Well it was on the shortlist of highest Remain shares in the UK. Of more importance is the differential - what was expected and what is it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,773
    The slightly worrying thing is that the Govt. has apparently done no planning for this outcome. Which I'm hoping is as much bollocks as was said by the Govt. during this campaign.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Chelmsford out
    Rosendale out
    Hart in


    Out about 180k ahead
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Edinburgh: Leave 25.6%, 3.0% ahead of Hanretty par.
  • RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Yes. The Foriegn Aid budget will be next.
    Cutting the foreign aid budget whilst trying to fight to retain our global influence might not be the wisest move. We'll need to get our flag on a lot more schools, hospitals, and village toilet blocks.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Sandpit said:

    Lowlander said:

    Lady Nugee is looking utterly distraught on Sky right now.

    Maybe some of the Labour elite should do more to understand why their voters have deserted them on this issue.
    Nah. Let Labour die.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    edited June 2016

    RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Faragists and their friends on the far right to replace them instead.
    You ok hun?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    tlg86 said:

    Online > Telephone ?

    Using 2016 methodology and when discussing EU referendums, yes :trollface:
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Despite being a Remainer I'm not that sad. Not sad for Britain, although I don't want Scottish independence. It is nice sometimes when people finally get the chance to point out that the emperor is naked.

    A bit sad for myself though, I've got a continental wife who will be a basket case in the morning. :-(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    Any chance of getting Farage on an aircraft carrier with a Mission Accomplished banner?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Possible futrure UKIP leader Woolfe on Sky now that Farage is standing down after def-----oh, hang on...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Remain doing OK in Surrey.

    Could they do similar in Bucks, Oxon, Berks, Sussex?
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    South Norfolk comprising the leafy southern suburbs of Norwich down to the market towns of Diss, Harleston, Loddon & Wymondham.

    Turnout 79% 80418 votes cast from 102398 electors

    Remain 38817 48.3%
    Leave 41541 51.7%
    Spoiled 6
    Majority for Leave 2724

    Would have expected #Leave to have had a Par majority of 4000-6000 so this represents a marginal outperformance for #Remain of about 2000-3000. Honours even.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ITV bod seems to be suggesting MPs should ignore a Leave result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412

    The slightly worrying thing is that the Govt. has apparently done no planning for this outcome. Which I'm hoping is as much bollocks as was said by the Govt. during this campaign.

    We'll find out soon.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,107

    RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Yes. The Foriegn Aid budget will be next.
    Cutting the foreign aid budget whilst trying to fight to retain our global influence might not be the wisest move. We'll need to get our flag on a lot more schools, hospitals, and village toilet blocks.
    Is that tongue in cheek?

    What we've done by leaving the EU will influence the world far more than all the aid we've given in 50 years.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Walsall out
    Nottingham out
    Bolton out
    E Staffs out
    Barnsly out
    Canterbury out

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    Bolton Out
    Walsall Out
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    bunnco said:

    South Norfolk comprising the leafy southern suburbs of Norwich down to the market towns of Diss, Harleston, Loddon & Wymondham.

    Turnout 79% 80418 votes cast from 102398 electors

    Remain 38817 48.3%
    Leave 41541 51.7%
    Spoiled 6
    Majority for Leave 2724

    Would have expected #Leave to have had a Par majority of 4000-6000 so this represents a marginal outperformance for #Remain of about 2000-3000. Honours even.

    It'll be interesting to see how Norwich votes. Remain par is 57%.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,244
    West Midlands voting leave heavily.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Dadge said:

    Despite being a Remainer I'm not that sad. Not sad for Britain, although I don't want Scottish independence. It is nice sometimes when people finally get the chance to point out that the emperor is naked.

    A bit sad for myself though, I've got a continental wife who will be a basket case in the morning. :-(

    Please reassure your wife. The British haven't changed. We're still the lovely, decent people we were yesterday.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Bolton Walsall Nottingham out out out - one screenshot says it all
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    ITV: 80% probability of a Leave win
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,269

    The slightly worrying thing is that the Govt. has apparently done no planning for this outcome. Which I'm hoping is as much bollocks as was said by the Govt. during this campaign.

    No, no there will be an emergency budget within the next couple of weeks. Who can doubt it?
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    John_M said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TW1R64 said:

    The BBCs Cardiff man is not sure if Cardiff has done enough!
    What does he mean?

    Cardiff was expected to be strongly for REMAIN?
    Cardiff gets all the loverly EU dosh. If they go for Leave I will definitely consider my mind well and truly boggled.
    I doubt most of the people who actually live there get much EU dosh.
  • Feel proud to have called it for Leave all the way through! Been leafleting solidly for weeks and meeting ordinary people. This has changed me and will change our country profoundly.For the better in both cases.

    In 2015, I predicted Cons to win certain seats and didn't back my judgement with cash. This time I decided to trust the anecdotes and personal experience over the polls and made some cash. Thanks concanvasser for sharing your anecdotes
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Danczuk laying the knife into Corbyn on Sky now. "Corbyn can't motivate his own supporters" LOL
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    pbr2013 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Faragists and their friends on the far right to replace them instead.
    You ok hun?
    Absolutely fine - the rest of the country won't be in due course though, unfortunately.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Feeling a bit sad for my parents who are both strong Remain supporters.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Possible futrure UKIP leader Woolfe on Sky now that Farage is standing down after def-----oh, hang on...

    Doesn't Leave kill UKIP?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    Midland Towns and Cities are kicking Dave in the Eddie Spheroids.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Bloody hell, Barnsley 68% Leave (par 55%)
  • Feel proud to have called it for Leave all the way through! Been leafleting solidly for weeks and meeting ordinary people. This has changed me and will change our country profoundly.For the better in both cases.

    In 2015, I predicted Cons to win certain seats and didn't back my judgement with cash. This time I decided to trust the anecdotes and personal experience over the polls and made some cash. Thanks concanvasser for sharing your anecdotes
    Oh and I work in Market Research
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,579
    The Euro continues to fall against the Dollar.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Steven Woolfe looks very statesmanlike right now on Sky. Would like him to become UKIP leader personally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,346
    Epping Leave 63% Remain 37%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,347
    Where did 60% come from? More like 95%
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Walsall out
    Nottingham out
    Bolton out

    Milton Keynes. Sheffield. Nottingham. This Is It?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,346
    Chelmsford Leave 53% Remain 47%
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    450k lead for LEAVE now!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    It really is over. We're out. WE HAVE LEFT THE EUROPEAN UNION
    This is the greatest UK political event of my lifetime.

    So Scotland might go. Good for them, if that's what they want.

    England has determined her future.

    More importantly, a sovereign people has stood up and said: FUCK YOU

    I have tomorrow off work and will spend it having a good walk in the English countryside, breathing in the FREE air.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    pbr2013 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Faragists and their friends on the far right to replace them instead.
    You ok hun?
    Absolutely fine - the rest of the country won't be in due course though, unfortunately.
    We'll be fine.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    hunchman said:

    Steven Woolfe looks very statesmanlike right now on Sky. Would like him to become UKIP leader personally.

    A lot of people have said that. Although UKIP's primary purpose may come to an end tomorrow.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD going down to 1.39 level. Its finally dawning on those in the London bubble.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    Leave now 470,000 votes ahead.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,040
    pbr2013 said:

    SeanT said:

    It really is over. We're out. WE HAVE LEFT THE EUROPEAN UNION
    This is the greatest UK political event of my lifetime.

    So Scotland might go. Good for them, if that's what they want.

    England has determined her future.

    More importantly, a sovereign people has stood up and said: FUCK YOU

    We haven't left yet and won't for a while.

    It'll be in about two years, give or take.

    Possibly. Let's see how the next few months pan out.

  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Doncaster out

    Epitaph for EdM??

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Freggles said:

    Nearly 75% turnout in the East Riding of Yorkshire (LEAVE)


    Just over 64% turnout in Liverpool (REMAIN)

    Looks like the wwc dont do opinion polls. Phone or online
  • Getting close to have a million lead for Leave.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Remain heading for 7 on BF...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ed's Doncaster votes Leave 69%.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    Woolfe completely on the money
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RobD said:

    Any chance of getting Farage on an aircraft carrier with a Mission Accomplished banner?

    Trump Force One?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,244
    Well that's it. County Durham goes completely blue. Labour heartland, eat your heart out?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Braintree out
    Tonbridge out
    S Norfolk out

    Leave 51.5%
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    Leave 1 million ahead in England.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The lead leave crosses 500,000.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    RodCrosby said:

    Remain heading for 7 on BF...

    LOL!
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Does this mean we're all going to have to pay £100 for replacement passports?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    as a small nugget of condolence for this remainer, it is good to see high turnouts, and that people will turnout if they think their vote will make a difference. We need a fairer voting system, proportional, and we will see higher turnouts much more often (if not at these levels)
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    hunchman said:

    Danczuk laying the knife into Corbyn on Sky now. "Corbyn can't motivate his own supporters" LOL

    This hasn't been discussed here, but I don't think Corbyn will be pushed out. He will simply wait to reap the benefits of the huge imminent damage to the Tories' reputation for economic pragmatism.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Half the results in and LEAVE has a half-mil lead...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Hilary Benn is just terrible. Doubly so when pitted against the Moggster.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    edited June 2016

    Possible futrure UKIP leader Woolfe on Sky now that Farage is standing down after def-----oh, hang on...

    Doesn't Leave kill UKIP?
    Not for a few more years. UKIP have to keep the 'maintstream politicians' honest.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Walsall out
    Nottingham out
    Bolton out

    Milton Keynes. Sheffield. Nottingham. This Is It?
    Nottingham? I didn't see that coming.
  • Es Milliband's constituency votes out. Will be v interesting to see the final Labour in-out split.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    SeanT said:

    I'm nearly crying again

    I never dreamed this might happen in my lifetime, much as I wished it.

    It will take a while to sink in.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I thought 1992 was good, I thought 2015 was spellbinding, 1997 was just YUCK at the time. This is just EPIC in so many ways. The greatest political night of my life!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,953

    Possible futrure UKIP leader Woolfe on Sky now that Farage is standing down after def-----oh, hang on...

    Doesn't Leave kill UKIP?
    Not now it's clear that labour doesn't know or represent it's voters,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,412
    alex. said:

    Does this mean we're all going to have to pay £100 for replacement passports?

    Don't worry. As and when they expire, no additional cost ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,346
    Nottingham Leave 50.8%
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,844
    £100 million matched
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Es Milliband's constituency votes out. Will be v interesting to see the final Labour in-out split.

    Bet it's not what YouGov said
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,019

    RobD said:

    TSE you must be knacked.

    I'm really excited, I have to be in work for 7am, I'm also working this weekend now.

    The next few years are going to be interesting.
    TSE, I commend you on your good humour throughout the campaign, even when it was getting pretty tetchy. And also on some excellent headline puns/references.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD 1.3883 low after Boris declared for OUT all those moons ago just GONE!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,806
    Durham - Fuck Me!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,346
    Norwich Remain 54% Leave 46%
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Sterling tanked after Sheffield.

    I am not surprised, Mr.Rising, came as a bit of a shock all round. I am myself coming to think that Leave is actually going ot win.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    HYUFD said:

    Nottingham Leave 50.8%

    Another place, I wonder if Dave had called this 2-3 weeks ago when all the students were still there.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    MP_SE said:

    hunchman said:

    Steven Woolfe looks very statesmanlike right now on Sky. Would like him to become UKIP leader personally.

    A lot of people have said that. Although UKIP's primary purpose may come to an end tomorrow.
    Lib Dems finished - tick.
    UKIP's purpose (on the right) over - tick.
    UKIP to replace Labour, as the SNP have replaced Labour, in England - tick.
    Brexit - tick.
    English Votes For English Laws - tick.

    I think we Tories are doing pretty well. Just need to put into place some proper leadership.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    nunu said:

    Freggles said:

    Nearly 75% turnout in the East Riding of Yorkshire (LEAVE)


    Just over 64% turnout in Liverpool (REMAIN)

    Looks like the wwc dont do opinion polls. Phone or online
    ROFL! They really got one over on the pollsters this time! People must have been pissing themselves laughing while saying on the phone "Oh, the referendum? I'll be voting Remain for sure!"
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,760
    Cashed out on Leave. A tidy win. What a night.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Before we malign the pollsters too much - a 3% MOE is to be expected.

    What happened I think, is that many of the Old Labour supporters (as intimated by yours truly) were off the pollsters means of access.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Manchester due.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    John_M said:

    Dadge said:

    Despite being a Remainer I'm not that sad. Not sad for Britain, although I don't want Scottish independence. It is nice sometimes when people finally get the chance to point out that the emperor is naked.

    A bit sad for myself though, I've got a continental wife who will be a basket case in the morning. :-(

    Please reassure your wife. The British haven't changed. We're still the lovely, decent people we were yesterday.
    Thanks. You're somewhat naive about the reality of life in the UK for Eastern Europeans, I'm afraid. But I am pleased and reassured by the general positive atitude of PBers.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nottingham leave!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,107
    Freggles said:

    RobD said:

    Any chance of getting Farage on an aircraft carrier with a Mission Accomplished banner?

    Trump Force One?
    What time is he due to touch down? "A new dawn has broken, has it not?"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Norwich exactly at par with 56% Remain.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    AndyJS said:

    GIN1138 said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Walsall out
    Nottingham out
    Bolton out

    Milton Keynes. Sheffield. Nottingham. This Is It?
    Nottingham? I didn't see that coming.
    The Midlands gave Cameron his majority... And a year later have destroyed him.
  • ConcanvasserConcanvasser Posts: 171
    Garerth I am delighted for you. Despite my love for PB I dont gamble at all. Getting my country back is the biggest win I could ever have dreamed off.

  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    RodCrosby said:

    Next target the BBC.

    And no more "Save the World" numpties in parliament.

    Yes. The Foriegn Aid budget will be next.
    Cutting the foreign aid budget whilst trying to fight to retain our global influence might not be the wisest move. We'll need to get our flag on a lot more schools, hospitals, and village toilet blocks.
    I didn't say it was wise. I said it will happen. The 0.7% law will be next.
This discussion has been closed.