Undefined discussion subject.
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Well fill in the ballot papers faster then Nick.NickPalmer said:78% turnout in Broxtowe. No result yet.
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Why?felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
Sorry to sound harsh, but you left.0 -
New World? How's that then?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.
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If it is a narrow leave, I think we're all aboard the good ship EEA/EFTA...0
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Alex Salmond must be licking his lips !!!!!!0
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They should just show all the constituencies with dots for the par values and then red bars and blue bars of different lengths to show different results. Its not hard.numbertwelve said:
Agreed. I don't understand what the heck they're on about. I get the feeling the BBC are panicking a bit.Tissue_Price said:
It's unbelievably shit. Just tell us what par is.Starfall said:The BBC chart is a terrible display of data. It does not illuminate anything at all.
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Rupert Harrison on Sky.0
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Cameron/Osborne kryptonite to the WWC Labour voters they needed.Dadge said:Cameron didn't lose it for Remain, but it was disastrous that he was the leader of the Remain campaign. Why would Labour voters vote for him? I think he, and many in the commentariat, forget how partisan a lot of Labour areas still are. Imagine if Thatcher had been leading the Remain campaign - how many Labour voters could've made themselves vote for her? How naive we are to think they would vote for Cameron!
Then Cameron goes and insults his party support.0 -
16.8million is the winning mark, according to Curtice.0
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Radio 4 predicting Leave 70% in Hartlepool.0
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No.david_herdson said:Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?
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Shetland good for leave, East Dumbartonshire bad.
Scotland looks like 60:40, but with relatively low turnout0 -
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I'm an ex-pat in the US....felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
...with a house under contract to sell in the UK.0 -
S Tyneside Leave 62% Remain 38%0
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If London votes 80/20 Remain they might still win I suppose.david_herdson said:Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?
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Fortunately I have TFA weighting that is 25% USD denominated, while my investment portfolio is closer to 40% USD.TheScreamingEagles said:So looks like my holiday to America is going to be cancelled.
My boss has just texted me a 40% fall in Sterling in the morning at this rate.0 -
please can somone please post the link to andys spreadsheet as i have just deleted mine by mistake0
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Forget the party identification, AB's strongly remain, C1's split, favouring leave & C2/DE's leave.
Turnout looks high enough in C1/C2/DE areas for leave to do this.0 -
So ex-pats might return - increasing immigration even further?tlg86 said:
Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
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South Tyneside looks very good for leave.0
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You think those extra voters over the GE are going "remain" :P ?corporeal said:
Well fill in the ballot papers faster then Nick.NickPalmer said:78% turnout in Broxtowe. No result yet.
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Look at south tyneside.0
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Iceland-Norway-Britain-Switzerland-Lichtenstein... the basis for a glorious new Confederation!numbertwelve said:If it is a narrow leave, I think we're all aboard the good ship EEA/EFTA...
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Does look like Scotland might vote IN whilst the UK votes OUT.
Indyref II here we come.0 -
Two hours ago, I went to sleep: Leave were at about 10:1 and Farage had conceded, after a brief hokey-cokey. From early guesses in Sunderland Leave were looking sub-50%, and the consensus seemed to be Remain by 4 to 8 points.
Now suddenly it's looking all Leavey.
Now admittedly I've missed the last two hours, but this level of change seems even odder than the GE.
Surely while the polls had the numbers, they didn't have the locations: maybe all we're seeing is that initial guesses on what areas voted how were wide of the mark; and that Remain areas will be Remainier than expected while Leave areas will be Leavier? That still seems quite possible to me. I can't quite compute the change of direction. It all looked so bleak for leave a few hours ago.
But then that was all based on a very narrow centrepoint of poll leads and seemingly a lot of money being bet on Remain on the basis of a lot of other money being bet on Remain.
Tyson's masochistic hope for a knife-edge night looking like being fulfilled, at any rate.0 -
Keith Jenner is a former Conservative candidate in Barnsley and is well connected.Richard_Tyndall said:
You are just trolling TSE. :-)KeithJenner said:
I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.Casino_Royale said:
Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.TGOHF said:Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.
BBC
They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
I suspect that Leave is going to do well in South Yorkshire from some minor anecdotes.
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God no. I'm going to do an Alastair and demand that Monmouth be annexed by dear old Blighty.Casino_Royale said:Leanne Wood arguing for more devolved powers for Wales in event of Brexit.
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South Tyneside 62-38 Leave.
Spreadsheet has it around 55-450 -
But people betting now are driving Betfair now - history is irrelevant.corporeal said:
Weight of money.MikeL said:How is Remain still 1.5?
The bookies aren't trying to predict the event, they're trying to get equal amounts of money on each side. The amount of money placed on remain during the campaign will hold the price.0 -
Do you know if your side are doing the responsible thing, now, and preparing a statement for Cameron to deliver in the morning to reassure the markets and EU on this?TheScreamingEagles said:
Someone else has texted me that South Yorkshire might have gone Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
You are just trolling TSE. :-)KeithJenner said:
I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.Casino_Royale said:
Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.TGOHF said:Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.
BBC
They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
Did not see that coming.
Not a jibe. Genuinely hoping we pull together a quick stabilisation plan now.0 -
63% turnout Dundee0
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That's absolutely fine. Interestingly, one of the things that's driving the high net immigration is fewer people leaving the country.No_Offence_Alan said:
So ex-pats might return - increasing immigration even further?tlg86 said:
Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
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We were under the same crown as Iceland and Norway under Canute.CornishBlue said:
Iceland-Norway-Britain-Switzerland-Lichtenstein... the basis for a glorious new Confederation!numbertwelve said:If it is a narrow leave, I think we're all aboard the good ship EEA/EFTA...
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He's got his second referendum on the way. If it wasn't for that pesky oil price he might actually win it ...nunu said:salmond smilin like a cheshire cat.
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I have some Osborne next leader betslips - anyone want to buy ?0
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@TSE
"My boss has just texted me a 40% fall in Sterling in the morning at this rate."
Your boss is probably tired and emotional
OR
If he is sending you text messages at one in the morning he has no idea about leadership
Either way you are working for the wrong firm.0 -
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 13m13 minutes agoAndyJS said:
If London votes 80/20 Remain they might still win I suppose.david_herdson said:Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?
At the moment, we're all freaking over one result - Newcastle.0 -
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0RepublicanTory said:please can somone please post the link to andys spreadsheet as i have just deleted mine by mistake
This one?0 -
I hope we are all preparing ourselves for the possibility of an Osborne punishment beating....0
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If the £ goes down all wine is more expensive, not just EU wineLuckyguy1983 said:
New World? How's that then?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.
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Still too close to call - we need some London results.0
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im watching bbcDavidL said:South Tyneside looks very good for leave.
where are these results ??0 -
I thought every borough in SY would go Leave except Sheffield but thought the latter would outvote the others.TheScreamingEagles said:
Someone else has texted me that South Yorkshire might have gone Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
You are just trolling TSE. :-)KeithJenner said:
I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.Casino_Royale said:
Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.TGOHF said:Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.
BBC
They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
Did not see that coming.0 -
I posted early on (before Sunderland) that this felt like US 2004 when GOP thought they had lost it only to find out that they won.FrankBooth said:What PM would want to take over this mess. I'd love to know what Boris is thinking. This wasn't the plan.
It's bizarre. Leave seemed pretty pessimistic at the start.
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Havering, Bromley and Bexley wont.AndyJS said:
If London votes 80/20 Remain they might still win I suppose.david_herdson said:Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?
Do we have any idea on the turnout in London ?
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Total crap0
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@Robert/Charles and the rest of the liberal internationalists:
Do you still think you've called this right or are any doubts emerging now it looks like it's going to happen?
I don't see how this will have anything other than a devastating effect on London as a whole.0 -
@JamieRoss7: It's gradually dawning on political journalists throughout the land that our weekend plans are fucked.0
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Salmond now talking about a 4 country lock on the result. Too late for Cameron.0
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Salmond!0
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Itvs is simpler and more informative at a glance but theyre not showing it that muchArtist said:The BBC's polling index is about as clear as mud.
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South Tyneside:
Remain 38%
Leave 62%0 -
Big win for Leave, I think. A lot of EM`s in London I know are voting out.
Europe will grant concessions on free movement and there will probably be another referendum.0 -
Ah the charm of the Leaver writ large - most made the choice many years ago when EU membership was not in question. I'm not sure you'll be so happy if thousands of expats have to return in order to get healthcare no longer provided as at present in their adopted country - I hope the NHS is fully geared up.tlg86 said:
Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
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South Tyneside
Is that the one that seals it for our expectations?0 -
Okaaaayyy.... Thanks. Hmm, I imagine MI5 could come up with something a tad more sophisticated than that, if they really wanted to. Has GCHQ being taking large deliveries of erasers recently or something?RobD said:
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I saw Sky three times yesterday count up how important NI, Scotland and London was vs a few big English cities - they NEVER mentioned Wales once.Casino_Royale said:Leanne Wood arguing for more devolved powers for Wales in event of Brexit.
It's like it didn't exist at all. I was amazed.0 -
BBC website.RepublicanTory said:0 -
Lindsay Lohan @lindsaylohan 10m10 minutes ago
#REMAIN Sorry, but #KETTERING where are you&why is this woman @BBCNews speaking on people rather than TELLING us what happens if UK LEAVES?
Lindsay Lohan @lindsaylohan 4m4 minutes ago
i love the #shetlands @BBCNews thank goodness we have pure hearted people our side #besmart #ShetlandsVSSunderland #BringItOn0 -
I seriously hope George Osborne and/or Sir Humphrey has got a Plan B for tomorrow. Be a huge dereliction of duty if there wasn't one.Casino_Royale said:
Do you know if your side are doing the responsible thing, now, and preparing a statement for Cameron to deliver in the morning to reassure the markets and EU on this?TheScreamingEagles said:
Someone else has texted me that South Yorkshire might have gone Leave.Richard_Tyndall said:
You are just trolling TSE. :-)KeithJenner said:
I have heard a rumour (second hand, so no idea of its accuracy) that Sheffield may be towards 70% leave. Sounds very high to me.Casino_Royale said:
Southampton, Sheffield, Leicester, and Nottingham are my bellwethers.TGOHF said:Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.
BBC
They all go Leave, Leave have a clear win.
Did not see that coming.
Not a jibe. Genuinely hoping we pull together a quick stabilisation plan now.0 -
Broxtowe was forecast to be 50-50, wasn't it? Always a bellweather. A paradise for the real-ale drinking psephologist.Pulpstar said:
You think those extra voters over the GE are going "remain" :P ?corporeal said:
Well fill in the ballot papers faster then Nick.NickPalmer said:78% turnout in Broxtowe. No result yet.
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To be fair, the Guardian has given more coverage to the working class Leave vote than any other broadsheet. I'm pretty certain they had a good idea what was coming.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Would like to be a fly on the wall in Guardian HQ tomorrow. Should have listened to John Harris...
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As an ex-expat, I have every sympathy with you both. Of course there's going to be volatility on Brexit, because no one actually has a clue what's going to happen. Give the market a couple of weeks to settle down (if it does, see previous sentence).rpjs said:
I'm an ex-pat in the US....felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
...with a house under contract to sell in the UK.0 -
Leeds! "Country mile"0
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Correction - 16.4 million votes required to win.0
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Looks like Cameron made a mistake believing this referendum wouldn't turn into a vote on the political elite.0
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Leave very confident in gods own country of yorkshire0
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High turnout in Broxtowe then.NickPalmer said:78% turnout in Broxtowe. No result yet.
Is it expected to vote LEAVE?
Another example of high turnout where the LEAVE vote is stronger?0 -
Gone in again. Looks like incredible value.Pong said:Leave, at current odds, is absurd.
looks like a very very good bet, to me.
This is Tory majority terrority, from last year, all over again.0 -
We've been texting all night long.HurstLlama said:@TSE
"My boss has just texted me a 40% fall in Sterling in the morning at this rate."
Your boss is probably tired and emotional
OR
If he is sending you text messages at one in the morning he has no idea about leadership
Either way you are working for the wrong firm.
I work for the right firm, he pays me a salary that is several multiples of the national average, he gives an excellent work life balance.0 -
Scotland plus Northern Ireland plus Gibraltar would be three only for Remainrottenborough said:Salmond now talking about a 4 country lock on the result. Too late for Cameron.
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Sky.RepublicanTory said:
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Bush led in final polls, the early exits were wrongtyson said:
I posted early on (before Sunderland) that this felt like US 2004 when GOP thought they had lost it only to find out that they won.FrankBooth said:What PM would want to take over this mess. I'd love to know what Boris is thinking. This wasn't the plan.
It's bizarre. Leave seemed pretty pessimistic at the start.0 -
Wales? I think I may have passed it once whilst driving to Pembroke.PlatoSaid said:
I saw Sky three times yesterday count up how important NI, Scotland and London was vs a few big English cities - they NEVER mentioned Wales once.Casino_Royale said:Leanne Wood arguing for more devolved powers for Wales in event of Brexit.
It's like it didn't exist at all. I was amazed.0 -
Presumably is now going 'la la la can't hear you.'.rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 13m13 minutes agoAndyJS said:
If London votes 80/20 Remain they might still win I suppose.david_herdson said:Am I being completely idiotic in thinking that Leave are on course to win this by 5 points or more?
At the moment, we're all freaking over one result - Newcastle.0 -
Luckyguy1983 said:
New World? How's that then?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.
Home brew is cheapLuckyguy1983 said:
New World? How's that then?FrancisUrquhart said:Apparently Majestic boss said that Brexit would massively increase the cost of wine....nobody tell SeanT.
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North East showing fairly strong anti-europe sentiments.
They've always boasted about how connected their football teams are to the local communities.0 -
Earlier this evening I was wondering if I'd made a mistake following @rcs1000's suggestion of a sell on the spreads of Remain at 54%.
Looks like it wasn't a mistake!0 -
Or he could have pulled back when he got feck all in his "renegotiation" and paused a couple of years.Jonathan said:
Bet Cameron wishes he hadn't won in 2015. Could have gone out on a high.rottenborough said:I believe Vernon Bogdanor was Cameron's tutor at Oxford. I wonder whether he now wishes he had failed him in the finals and saved the country from this.
Or he could have taken the Negotiation for Dummies 1.01 course...0 -
David Davis big smiles...0
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Salmond clinging to betfair0
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Salmond must read PB, surely!!0
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Thanks.IanB2 said:
The paranoia amongst an alarmingly high proportion of leavers that if they voted by pencil the secret service would apply a rubber to their vote before it was counted....LucyJones said:
Someone please indulge me... what is all this MI5 stuff that people are talking about?alex. said:Need MI5 to start doing their thing now...
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Haven't you heard a simple pen can defeat their sophisticated ways...LucyJones said:
Okaaaayyy.... Thanks. Hmm, I imagine MI5 could come up with something a tad more sophisticated than that, if they really wanted to. Has GCHQ being taking large deliveries of erasers recently or something?RobD said:0 -
Salmond quoting spread betting figures!0
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Err - that makes no sense plus they are mostly elderly and pensioners! Therefore potential huge social services and health burdens.tlg86 said:
That's absolutely fine. Interestingly, one of the things that's driving the high net immigration is fewer people leaving the country.No_Offence_Alan said:
So ex-pats might return - increasing immigration even further?tlg86 said:
Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
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I really doubt the French and Spanish are going to chuck out immigrants who spend money in their countries.felix said:
Ah the charm of the Leaver writ large - most made the choice many years ago when EU membership was not in question. I'm not sure you'll be so happy if thousands of expats have to return in order to get healthcare no longer provided as at present in their adopted country - I hope the NHS is fully geared up.tlg86 said:
Sorry, no sympathy - you choice to live somewhere that doesn't use the Pound.felix said:Looks a very disappointing night for us expats - will be interested to know how soon we'll get any kind of resolution on our future status re taxation, healthcare , residency rights etc. For many pensioners a 10%+ drop in sterling means 10% less pension to liver on each month. For us these things really do matter. Don't expect much sympathy on here but we are British citizens and entitled to some consideration from our government.
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Vote Leave source reckons they have easily won Yorkshire.0
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Does he know about your PBing ?TheScreamingEagles said:
We've been texting all night long.HurstLlama said:@TSE
"My boss has just texted me a 40% fall in Sterling in the morning at this rate."
Your boss is probably tired and emotional
OR
If he is sending you text messages at one in the morning he has no idea about leadership
Either way you are working for the wrong firm.
I work for the right firm, he pays me a salary that is several multiples of the national average, he gives an excellent work life balance.
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I refer to my earlier post about Vernon Bogdanor. This guy gave Cameron a first in PPE.AndyJS said:Looks like Cameron made a mistake in believing this referendum wouldn't turn into a vote on the political elite.
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Vote shares on SpreadEx now 49-50, and 50-51
Basically parity
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