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Christian May
Declaration times to swing areas: The definitive guide to the EU referendum https://t.co/1wsX96aRA1 via @CityAM0 -
fair point, well madeJennyFreeman said:that populus poll may be right but how come are there are 0% undecideds or don't knows? its a big sample size of 4700.
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Trouble with Stephen Woolfe is his background is in the city and his reason for going into politics was EU regulation - presumably of financial services.0
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Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v20 -
Surely this relates to those who gain opportunity from the EU. If you have a graduate level education or are social class AB the opportunities will be huge. Compare that with someone from a small country town, or WWC city area, competing in the jobs market against EU citizens willing to live ten to a house / caravan to earn some wedge for a couple of years to take back to normally eastern Europe as a nest egg. All the time whilst having public services stretched, and the very nature of communities changedAndyJS said:We already know most of this but it's interesting to read anyway:
"The referendum has revealed a great divide in Britain. According to YouGov polling, the overwhelming majority of university graduates — 70 per cent — have been for Remain. But among those with nothing above some GCSEs, a similarly big majority — 68 per cent — has been for Leave. The highest social classes have been for Remain (62 per cent). The lowest have been for Leave (63 per cent).
There has also been a city versus country divide. Parts of London have been well over 70 per cent for Remain, whereas country areas — particularly on the coast — have been for Leave.
Every election is divisive, but none has pitted rich against poor like this one. The social divide is far more dramatic than the divide between the two main political parties."
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/britains-great-divide/0 -
The notion that the UK has less inclination to use its kicking boots than the French when it comes to the EU would be a huge blot on our national character....MyBurningEars said:
Even the French rejected the Constitution in 2005
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No, I genunely believe it.JonathanD said:GIN1138 said:
Germany won't "force" us in, our political "leaders" will sign us up.rcs1000 said:
Really? Germany, who wanted Greece to leave the Eurozone, would like to force a country that doesn't want to be a member, in against their wishes.GIN1138 said:Euro is back on the agenda from tomorrow.
I know lots of German politicians. They want to save the Eurozone. They have not the slightest interest in trying to force someone who doesn't want to be a member from joining. Why would they?
When I say the Euro is back on the agenda tomorrow, I mean the campaign to get us to join re-starts tomorrow. This REMAIN win (if it's a landslide) will be the launch pad. Of course it won't be immediate... I imagine it will take a decade of slow and insidious "softening up" of the British public but we know where end game is. Where it has always been for the europhiles.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the Pound, IMO.
I realise this is just make believe to try and shock a few undecided into voting Leave but if Blair and his fellow Europhiles weren't able to get us to join the euro 15 years ago when it was shiny and new, then there is no way we will be joining now.
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want. What I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.0 -
Press Association
The UK population has risen by almost five million in the past 11 years https://t.co/0inOKzcrdt0 -
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.0 -
I think Diane James would be their best bet. Imo, floating voters would cut UKIP more slack if they had a female leader, because they'd think (however irrationally) that a woman couldn't possibly be secretly bigoted and so must be saying what she says out of genuine concern for the country.FrankBooth said:Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.0 -
Yes, I think Cameron and Osborne will draw most of this irrational poison. No problem for Cameron, of course, but a bit more of a problem for Osborne. Still, he more than anyone will understand that that's politics, and getting to be one of the most successful Chancellors of the post-war era isn't a bad career highlight by any standard.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Nothing that can't be cured with a new leader.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.0 -
I still think it will be very very close - not a foregone conclusion at all.
The idea of voting to make it close seems very risky to me.
Fascinating post by @nunu below - my impression was that Vote Leave were much more organised than they appeared, with better canvass data, and that it was all the parties doing their own work and street stalls etc that would mean not enough data for today - but I spent an hour running round with early morning targeted Remain leaflets so looks like I was wrong.
Welcome to new and returning posters - feels like something of a family reunion. Hope we are all still family this time tomorrow. Good luck to those who are heavily involved, I think I'm taking a relaxing evening before joining you later for the results.0 -
It ain't and there aren't.PlatoSaid said:
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.John_M said:
I don't think you're alone nunu. There are a fair few politically homeless people now.nunu said:This is it for me and politics.
We have no one to blame but our selves. I don't blame Dave but won't vote Tory after this even if the margin is 55-45. Unless they have an outer as leader which they won't. And won't vote ukip whilst Nigel Farrage is leader. So have no one to vote for as all the others are europhiles. Oh well.0 -
The Titanic analogy springs to mind here again.rottenborough said:
This is crazy. What margin? Nobody knows. Polls could be wrong.
If you completely undecided, then stick to the existing status quo. There's no going back.0 -
You won't see a movement to join the Euro unless the Eurozone begins to consistently outperform us economically and it's credible that the Euro is the reason. In other words if the Euro looked like copper-bottomed success.GIN1138 said:
No, I genunely believe it.JonathanD said:GIN1138 said:
Germany won't "force" us in, our political "leaders" will sign us up.rcs1000 said:
Really? Germany, who wanted Greece to leave the Eurozone, would like to force a country that doesn't want to be a member, in against their wishes.GIN1138 said:Euro is back on the agenda from tomorrow.
I know lots of German politicians. They want to save the Eurozone. They have not the slightest interest in trying to force someone who doesn't want to be a member from joining. Why would they?
When I say the Euro is back on the agenda tomorrow, I mean the campaign to get us to join re-starts tomorrow. This REMAIN win (if it's a landslide) will be the launch pad. Of course it won't be immediate... I imagine it will take a decade of slow and insidious "softening up" of the British public but we know where end game is. Where it has always been for the europhiles.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the Pound, IMO.
I realise this is just make believe to try and shock a few undecided into voting Leave but if Blair and his fellow Europhiles weren't able to get us to join the euro 15 years ago when it was shiny and new, then there is no way we will be joining now.
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want what I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.0 -
Not a chance.dyedwoolie said:
If Farage goes, the BOO Tories will try and oust Dave and get BOO in charge, failing which they will break off and 'legitimise' UKIP in a merger.Verulamius said:How likely is a split in the tories, official (liberal) conservatives with Cameron and a breakaway faction (social) conservatives which go after the UKIP and working class ex Labour voters?
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Yes, it has nothing to do with how decent, or smart, or educated a person is. It really is as simple as dividing into those who feel they benefit and those who feel they lose out.Nemtynakht said:Surely this relates to those who gain opportunity from the EU.
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Fully agreed. Our politics is so personal and polarised it needs a radical shift like this to get away from swing voters in marginals and towards commanding public appeal and confidence.pinkrose said:I've said it before and I'll say it again we NEED electoral reform after this. FPTP with the two big party system crushing the smaller parties is surely on it's last legs? The Tories are a coalition that is pulling apart and so are Labour, its ridiculous.
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Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."0
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Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.0
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Much like the reasons that led to us joining the EEC in the first place.Wanderer said:
You won't see a movement to join the Euro unless the Eurozone begins to consistently outperform us economically and it's credible that the Euro is the reason. In other words if the Euro looked like copper-bottomed success.GIN1138 said:
No, I genunely believe it.JonathanD said:GIN1138 said:
Germany won't "force" us in, our political "leaders" will sign us up.rcs1000 said:
Really? Germany, who wanted Greece to leave the Eurozone, would like to force a country that doesn't want to be a member, in against their wishes.GIN1138 said:Euro is back on the agenda from tomorrow.
I know lots of German politicians. They want to save the Eurozone. They have not the slightest interest in trying to force someone who doesn't want to be a member from joining. Why would they?
When I say the Euro is back on the agenda tomorrow, I mean the campaign to get us to join re-starts tomorrow. This REMAIN win (if it's a landslide) will be the launch pad. Of course it won't be immediate... I imagine it will take a decade of slow and insidious "softening up" of the British public but we know where end game is. Where it has always been for the europhiles.
Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the Pound, IMO.
I realise this is just make believe to try and shock a few undecided into voting Leave but if Blair and his fellow Europhiles weren't able to get us to join the euro 15 years ago when it was shiny and new, then there is no way we will be joining now.
Unlike most of the people on here I don't "spin". I just post what I think.
People must vote for whatever they want what I post here won't make any difference to anything anyway.0 -
Farage won't quit UKIP - he can't. He's a publicity junkie who would rather destroy the party than leave it. UKIP are nothing without him ...and nothing with himSandyRentool said:If we vote Remain:
(1) Farage should resign tomorrow morning. Properly this time.
(2) Cameron will stay until 2019.
(3) The next recession will be 100% Osborne's fault.
(4) Priti Patel will have more time to spend in her dungeon.0 -
They were told upteen times.PlatoSaid said:0 -
Or she can continue lobbying for BAT?SandyRentool said:If we vote Remain:
(1) Farage should resign tomorrow morning. Properly this time.
(2) Cameron will stay until 2019.
(3) The next recession will be 100% Osborne's fault.
(4) Priti Patel will have more time to spend in her dungeon.0 -
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.Danny565 said:
I think Diane James would be their best bet.FrankBooth said:Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.0 -
Thick as the mud they are spending the weekend in....I am sure they will all be in tw@tter moaning how unfair it all is, just like when the the summer exams had a tough question or two.PlatoSaid said:0 -
Short-term political people get all righteously indignant about process, but ultimately it's not about process, it's about outcomes. The anti-EU people didn't want a referendum. They wanted to leave the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.0 -
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this, and I recognise that he's used some extremely dubious arguments. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.John_M said:
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.0 -
Oh I'm sure it's EU safety regs for all Airbus test flightsRobD said:Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.
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He was feeding his base what they crave. It's who he is.AndyJS said:Farage's poster was definitely a mistake in terms of trying to win over floating voters. I'm not sure what he was thinking when he commissioned it. Leave was doing very nicely in the polls at the time so it wasn't necessary to take a risk with it.
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I'm really confused. I've seen nothing today to change my view that this vote is on a knife-edge. Yet I come on here to find confident remained and wailing leavers. Bar the betting markets (who are almost probably as blind as we are, if not more), what has changed?0
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I'd pay double my membership fee for that.williamglenn said:
Any merger is more likely to delegitimise the splitters. It wouldn't be like the SDP split which posed an existential threat to Labour that they survived by the skin of their teeth. On the contrary, the Tories, minus the Eurofanatics, would be the only game in town for serious government.dyedwoolie said:
If Farage goes, the BOO Tories will try and oust Dave and get BOO in charge, failing which they will break off and 'legitimise' UKIP in a merger.Verulamius said:How likely is a split in the tories, official (liberal) conservatives with Cameron and a breakaway faction (social) conservatives which go after the UKIP and working class ex Labour voters?
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Same here, even in a very rainy and humid Kent. The infirm and disabled being gladly wheeled-in etc. A feeling of 'all hands to the pump'. Whether that's good for Leave or Remain, we shall see. Turnout will surely be above GE level.LadyBucket said:Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."
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Has Basil spoken?Chameleon said:I'm really confused. I've seen nothing today to change my view that this vote is on a knife-edge. Yet I come on here to find confident remained and wailing leavers. Bar the betting markets (who are almost probably as blind as we are, if not more), what has changed?
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Agreed, but it will only happen if the members of the Tory and Labour parties push for it to happen and it needs high profile MPs to do so too. That's not impossible, both parties have factions that are at each other's throats.tpfkar said:
Fully agreed. Our politics is so personal and polarised it needs a radical shift like this to get away from swing voters in marginals and towards commanding public appeal and confidence.pinkrose said:I've said it before and I'll say it again we NEED electoral reform after this. FPTP with the two big party system crushing the smaller parties is surely on it's last legs? The Tories are a coalition that is pulling apart and so are Labour, its ridiculous.
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Great post, Im afraid all the Cameron haters are in disbelief at the polls. They were so looking forward to a Cameron slagging fest tomorrow.Richard_Nabavi said:
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.John_M said:
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.0 -
Farage was being a twat. If Leave loses, he gets the blame. The coincidence of THAT poster on the day Jo Cox was murdered caused the Leave bandwagon to come to a shuddering halt. Just so he could have his ME-ME-ME moment, having rightly been shunned as the Face of Brexit.AndyJS said:Farage's poster was definitely a mistake in terms of trying to win over floating voters. I'm not sure what he was thinking when he commissioned it. Leave was doing very nicely in the polls at the time so it wasn't necessary to take a risk with it.
The man is a total tool.0 -
Don't hold your breath.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.0 -
(Assuming a Remain win by a clear if close margin)
It will be Indyref all over again. The people that wanted the referendum will discredit the result while the people that didn't want a referendum in the first place are very satisfied with the result. Those that lost will claim a moral victory (we are the 45) and believe themselves to be more democratic, have a more positive outlook or be more in touch with ordinary people. Those that won will move on with lightning speed.
There will be a large pool of resentment, there will be constant talk about another referendum, but the chances of it happening are slim. That's partly because the EU will have more legitimacy than before (the people voted for it); because those in favour will be reluctant to potentially lose a second vote on the issue; because voters that aren't bought into the issue (the majority) will groan and punish those that propose going through the exercise again. A moderately Eurosceptic leader of the Conservative Party won't touch a second referendum with a bargepole.0 -
I will second that! Over the last six years Cameron has delivered on the Libdems wish of a Referendum on our voting system, SNP demand for an Indy Ref, and now our first Referendum on our EU membership in forty years. The Conservative party has never been about one issue despite some of its members passionate dislike of our membership of the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.0 -
I've just taken out two bets on Betfair that I believe offer a reasonable risk/return - a combined bet 5 units on Remain > 52.5% @ 1.34 plus 11 units Remain <56.5% @ 1.48.
For a unit of £1 (total stake £16) this returns a profit of £6.98 if Remain score between 52.5% - 56.5%, a profit of 28p for any Remain result worse than 52.5%, and a loss of £9.30 for any Remain result above 56.5%.
The risk is that my own original forecast, to which I've held until recently, was Remain 57/43. But even I find it hard to see Remain winning by this much after the campaign.
edit/ even since I typed this post I see the odds have shifted further toward Remain, but the principle holds...0 -
Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.
There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.0 -
Suzanne Evans seems like a nice lady, but as I say everything about her accent and demeanour blares "middle-class typical Tory woman". I'm not sure that would peel off disaffected Labour voters in the north.JosiasJessop said:
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.Danny565 said:
I think Diane James would be their best bet.FrankBooth said:Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.0 -
Both are weak on TV though: 'This Week' for example. Woolfe is more fluid and eloquent.JosiasJessop said:
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.Danny565 said:
I think Diane James would be their best bet.FrankBooth said:Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.0 -
They spent an awful lot of effort bitching about getting a referendum and criticising Cameron for not holding one earlier.edmundintokyo said:Short-term political people get all righteously indignant about process, but ultimately it's not about process, it's about outcomes. The anti-EU people didn't want a referendum. They wanted to leave the EU.
I suppose, to be fair, Nigel Farage at least did his utmost to prevent one, though.0 -
Maggie won three elections as a "middle-class typical Tory woman"!!!Danny565 said:
Suzanne Evans seems like a nice lady, but as I say everything about her accent and demeanour blares "middle-class typical Tory woman". I'm not sure that would peel off disaffected Labour voters in the north.JosiasJessop said:
Suzanne Evans is their best bet. Firstly, her work on the UKIP manifesto was top notch. Secondly, she is a good media performer. Thirdly, she will appeal to a very different demographic to Farage, who is more than a little marmite.Danny565 said:
I think Diane James would be their best bet.FrankBooth said:Ukip might do well to get someone like Flynn as their leader rather than Farage. There are people who would be tempted to vote for them under a different leader.
Suzanne Evans is obviously the closest UKIP has to a media darling, but I think she's a bit too posh for UKIP's target audience.0 -
Anecdote: Site manager at an industrial site in Yorkshire called all of his staff into the conference room this morning. Told them all to Vote Leave.
To me, this sort of nonsense is totally counterproductive.0 -
Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.0 -
Just when it was beginning to look good for Remain....pinkrose said:Peter Kellner predicting Remain to win by 8.5%
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What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.0 -
Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?0
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That may be true about the younger voters, but not for the majority of those of us richer in years. I know of no study that has looked at this, so I'll just report that all the pensioners I know now, plus my own family experience, are far more concerned about the future of their children and grandchildren than they are about themselves.glw said:
Yes, it has nothing to do with how decent, or smart, or educated a person is. It really is as simple as dividing into those who feel they benefit and those who feel they lose out.Nemtynakht said:Surely this relates to those who gain opportunity from the EU.
If I am right then if, as we are told, the elderly are predominantly for out then perhaps there is something to think about.0 -
My goodness, you can't resist for even one post can you? I'll correct my position to 'lost all credibility with me'. You are welcome to continue believing that the sun shines out of his arse.Richard_Nabavi said:
In other words you disagree with Cameron's position in the referendum (and, I suspect, resent his effectiveness). Fair enough. I disagree with Michael Gove on this, and I recognise that he's used some extremely dubious arguments. But I'm not going to lay into him, say he's 'lost all credibility', let alone go into a huff if he remains in a senior position or even becomes PM. Sane people can disagree on the balance of arguments in a complex issue like this which has multiple facets.John_M said:
Richard, you really are going to have to learn that calling people racists, idiots and crazies will not endear you to your target.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
I didn't want a referendum - we have bigger fish to fry. I'm glad I got one, but I'll give Cameron no credit for it - it was an act of pure political calculation in order to win an election.
He's given us a referendum and then told us there is only one answer, and done so in a way that has lost his credibility.
I generally don't go off in huffs, as I'm not actually fourteen.
Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
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Funny you should say that...kjohnw said:if Leave do manage to somehow pull this off, the egg on faces is going to be huge, and the markets will be in chaos tomorrow
"City banks - including UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Merrill Lynch - have written to clients telling them to prepare for disruption once the EU referendum result is declared."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-3655935/Pound-hits-2106-high-against-dollar-traders-bet-Remain-banks-warn-result-paralyse-markets.html0 -
What time will results start coming in?0
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Thank you for your deep insights into the Conservative Party. Been a member long?felix said:
It ain't and there aren't.PlatoSaid said:
If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.John_M said:
I don't think you're alone nunu. There are a fair few politically homeless people now.nunu said:This is it for me and politics.
We have no one to blame but our selves. I don't blame Dave but won't vote Tory after this even if the margin is 55-45. Unless they have an outer as leader which they won't. And won't vote ukip whilst Nigel Farrage is leader. So have no one to vote for as all the others are europhiles. Oh well.0 -
Twice this week the schedulers have put EU debates on at the same time as the football.PlatoSaid said:Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2
Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?0 -
Repeat of IndyRef. The agents for change don't see their referendum as a choice between two valid options. They see it as a mechanism that unlocks their preferred change. Therefore if you vote against change your choice must necessarily be invalid: you were fearful, misled or a traitor etc. Those that were opposed to change see a referendum as a false choice, but are happy to accept the result if it goes their way.edmundintokyo said:
Short-term political people get all righteously indignant about process, but ultimately it's not about process, it's about outcomes. The anti-EU people didn't want a referendum. They wanted to leave the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.0 -
I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/0 -
Some never learn. Thats why there will always be financial crashes.Sunil_Prasannan said:Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
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There is no 'margin'. It's 1335 hrs not 2155hrs.Sean_F said:
That's what my brother in law has done.Casino_Royale said:
Everyone still to vote who's undecided should vote Leave now, to compress the margin.Sean_F said:
Since it looks as if Remain will win, it's sensible to vote Leave.AndyJS said:
Thanks Josias, this could be helpful to me in making a final decision by 9:30 tonight.JosiasJessop said:Now for the personal: I have found this the hardest choice at an election ever; much harder than even my first vote at the 1992 GE in Leyton and Wanstead. Both campaigns have been lacklustre, and the future direction of the country under both leave and remain muddy. A decision made harder by the fact that I have been trying to work out the best for my son whilst knowing that we might never get another bite at this cherry before he is an adult, if then.
As much as some might say it is an easy choice, and the case unarguable, it is not. If either of the campaigns had actually been competent then it might be another matter: but they were not.
So how did I vote? As I have said many times before I see leaving as inevitable in the medium- and long-term, and I'd rather it was done sooner than later. But I find it hard to countenance a non-EEA leave option, and that has not been placed on the table by the leave campaign. The government choosing an EEA route after the leave campaign's rejection of that route would be a betrayal of the voters.
People around me have not made the choice easier: staunch remainers (to the extent of having posters in their windows) use the staid old arguments such as 'the EU has kept peace', whilst the leavers have been solely mentioning immigration. No-one I've known has been as insightful as many of the comments on here.
I finally made my decision last night. Although I am not a Conservative, I am fairly small-c conservative and cautious. As such: although Remain have not persuaded me that the EU will not continue on the same slow road to integration, Leave had utterly failed to persuade me that the change they propose is better or wise. Whilst I had been falling off the fence towards Leave for a long time; the Leave campaign and some of the messages from its supporters have repulsed me much more than the Remain campaign.
As such, I have reluctantly chosen remain. My only hope is that my fears about the direction of the EU are unfounded.
I feel slightly dirty. But I fear not as dirty as if I had voted Leave.
Finally: thanks to David Cameron for giving me this opportunity to make a choice.0 -
I am bit surprised to see that the "expected" Sunderland vote is for Leave to win 60-40.PlatoSaid said:Christian May
Declaration times to swing areas: The definitive guide to the EU referendum https://t.co/1wsX96aRA1 via @CityAM
This is where the Nissan plant is situated. Turkeys voting for Christmas !0 -
Withdrawal symptoms until Saturday!Jobabob said:
Twice this week the schedulers have put EU debates on at the same time as the football.PlatoSaid said:Jeremy Paxman's EU referendum debate gets 1.6m viewers' vote.
https://t.co/YxyXfkdTQO https://t.co/Z8Gvrnk1v2
Which do they think most people would prefer to watch?0 -
12.30am UK time I thinkTim_B said:What time will results start coming in?
0 -
But you can't have a hung referendum.Sunil_Prasannan said:Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
0 -
No it isn't. You would not say that were the balance the other way around. Stop being disingenuous Sean – very unlike you!Sean_F said:
Since it looks as if Remain will win, it's sensible to vote Leave.AndyJS said:
Thanks Josias, this could be helpful to me in making a final decision by 9:30 tonight.JosiasJessop said:Now for the personal: I have found this the hardest choice at an election ever; much harder than even my first vote at the 1992 GE in Leyton and Wanstead. Both campaigns have been lacklustre, and the future direction of the country under both leave and remain muddy. A decision made harder by the fact that I have been trying to work out the best for my son whilst knowing that we might never get another bite at this cherry before he is an adult, if then.
As much as some might say it is an easy choice, and the case unarguable, it is not. If either of the campaigns had actually been competent then it might be another matter: but they were not.
So how did I vote? As I have said many times before I see leaving as inevitable in the medium- and long-term, and I'd rather it was done sooner than later. But I find it hard to countenance a non-EEA leave option, and that has not been placed on the table by the leave campaign. The government choosing an EEA route after the leave campaign's rejection of that route would be a betrayal of the voters.
People around me have not made the choice easier: staunch remainers (to the extent of having posters in their windows) use the staid old arguments such as 'the EU has kept peace', whilst the leavers have been solely mentioning immigration. No-one I've known has been as insightful as many of the comments on here.
I finally made my decision last night. Although I am not a Conservative, I am fairly small-c conservative and cautious. As such: although Remain have not persuaded me that the EU will not continue on the same slow road to integration, Leave had utterly failed to persuade me that the change they propose is better or wise. Whilst I had been falling off the fence towards Leave for a long time; the Leave campaign and some of the messages from its supporters have repulsed me much more than the Remain campaign.
As such, I have reluctantly chosen remain. My only hope is that my fears about the direction of the EU are unfounded.
I feel slightly dirty. But I fear not as dirty as if I had voted Leave.
Finally: thanks to David Cameron for giving me this opportunity to make a choice.0 -
Well I voted LEAVE around 30 minutes ago.
Anecdote alert:
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)0 -
As a non-Tory I agree that Dave's plan was:AndrewSpencer said:
Richard, it isn't bonkers to be unhappy with Cameron if you are a Leave Tory. I am grateful that we finally got a referendum on Europe but it's clear from the tone Cameron has taken it wasn't granted out of the goodness of his heart or because he thought there was a worthwhile debate to be had. He probably never thought he'd have to do it as he wasn't expecting to win the GE (even on the night of the election itself).Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
He's campaigned robustly, which is his and Osborne's right and duty, but there are a lot of Tories who felt that the Conservative Party was the best vehicle for removing the UK from the EU and, when push came to shove, the Euro-sceptic rhetoric of Cameron, Osborne and others has been exposed as just that, rhetoric.
There's obviously a lot of anger on both sides of the Tory famly at the moment and much will cool over the next few weeks and months but the scars will still be there for decades to come and I, for one, and going to find it hard to vote for a Tory Party led by a Remainer. I probably will, as I've never voted anything else, but both sides are hurting.
a) to go into coalition and be 'persuaded' not to have the Referendum, or
b) to use the Referendum to lance the boil in the Tory Party once and for all and so cast his EU-obsessive wing into outer darkness
Of course he remembers all the damage the anti-EU Tories can do from his time as a SPAD during Maastricht.
So I can understand why some Tories aren't big Dave fans right now.
Personally I think both a) (best) and b) (worthwhile) were worth going for....0 -
Will we get a dawn statement from Juncker? "We have heard the voice of Britain and now the voice of Brussels must be heard."0
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I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/0 -
In some communities that behaviour is quite common, particularly West YorkshireSandyRentool said:Anecdote: Site manager at an industrial site in Yorkshire called all of his staff into the conference room this morning. Told them all to Vote Leave.
To me, this sort of nonsense is totally counterproductive.0 -
My point is the predictions from a year ago were found to be WANTING!MikeSmithson said:
But you can't have a hung referendum.Sunil_Prasannan said:Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
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How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an economy increasingly reliant on low skilled, low waged expansive insecure labour market that needs wages to be topped up by housing benefit and tax credits just to survive.megalomaniacs4u said:
What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
How can you have small gov and low tax policies with an ageing society and a publicly funded healthcare system open to all comers, British citizens, EU, non EU, its not possible!0 -
A long term councillor once told me that the oldies tended to vote before 2pm. After that it was difficult to get them away from the afternoon tv and soaps.LadyBucket said:Absolutely scorching hot weather here in my largest village in the North west. Just been to vote and never seen anything like it, they were queuing outside. Normally, it's just one man and his dog. Lots of "oldies."
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I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/0 -
Junior posted yesterday (?) about such exit polls: no better than guesswork without the baseline polling station dataset that informs to GE exit polls.David_Evershed said:Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.0 -
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.John_M said:Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).0 -
I want a free owl. Sadly there is no longer a Party that wants to give me one.megalomaniacs4u said:
What?! Given DC & GO have turned out to be treacherous turncoats, never! Those of us that want proper small gov/low tax policies are stuck with social democrats pretending to be Tory.Richard_Nabavi said:
Which is utterly bonkers, given that Dave got them the referendum they wanted.PlatoSaid said:If PB is anything to go by - there's a significant number of homeless Tory types/others that are very unimpressed with Dave & George. Same elsewhere too.
Hopefully those who have lost their marbles over this will find them again in the next few months.
So I will just have to compromise and vote for the party which most closely matches my wants. I remain disappointed of course that none of the parties has adopted my personal manifesto word for word.0 -
Do you genuinely believe he was honest when he said that all options would be considered, implying he would vote Leave if he didn't get what he want. Especially given what he said during the campaign.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.John_M said:Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).0 -
We could have an exact tie, though. 22,324,892 votes for leave, 22,324,892 votes for remain. That would be fun. Just think, we could do this all over again next month.MikeSmithson said:
But you can't have a hung referendum.Sunil_Prasannan said:Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
0 -
This is getting wonderfully off-topic, but I believe Boeing do the same for their first flights as well.RobD said:Completely OT, but I'm watching footage of the first test flight of that A350. All the people on board are wearing parachutes!! They can't have been that confident, LOL.
http://www.seattlepi.com/business/article/After-40-years-at-Boeing-chief-test-pilot-John-1225104.php#photo-673423
Allegedly, Boeing test pilots change into and out of their flight clothes and parachutes on board for PR reasons. Airbus (I don't know about Boeing) put escape hatches in the floor of their prototypes behind the nose landing gear!0 -
Where are you?GIN1138 said:Well I voted LEAVE around 30 minutes ago.
Anecdote alert:
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)0 -
Especially for turnout buyers with those numbers.Cookie said:
We could have an exact tie, though. 22,324,892 votes for leave, 22,324,892 votes for remain. That would be fun. Just think, we could do this all over again next month.MikeSmithson said:
But you can't have a hung referendum.Sunil_Prasannan said:Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
0 -
I suppose we can take solace that Samantha's Cameron's daughter will be able to get that apprenticeship now.0
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Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he wasn't. He was being democratic. This is an issue which has to be resolved.John_M said:Based on the apocalyptic forecasts we've had on here, Cameron was grossly irresponsible to offer a referendum that he could easily have lost, based on the prejudices of the poor, the ignorant and the racists.
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved, although we won't know how for a few hours. Then the world will move on, and politicians and voters will worry about other things (Heathrow, for a starter!). Tempers will cool, it will all be ancient history soon.
Just like gay marriage, to take one example (an issue which I think actually caused more anger amongst some party members than the referendum has).
By tonight at 10pm, it will be resolved,
I doubt it. If anything this referendum has shown up divisions in the country that were previously papered over.
A 2:1 decision in either direction would resolve it, but I don't think we're going to get that. And the underlying issues are not going away, if anything they are likely to get worse.
0 -
I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully
I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.
Democracy is great.0 -
Birmingham also surprises me with 48-52 for Leave.0
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i think that's an implied Remain win.Cookie said:
We could have an exact tie, though. 22,324,892 votes for leave, 22,324,892 votes for remain. That would be fun. Just think, we could do this all over again next month.MikeSmithson said:
But you can't have a hung referendum.Sunil_Prasannan said:Weren't we all predicting a hung parliament during lunchtime on Election Day?
0 -
Do you love democracy, TSE? What are your thoughts on Republican governments?TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully
I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.
Democracy is great.0 -
Respect for that.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully
I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.
Democracy is great.
Now, if you could perhaps take a few dozen more...0 -
No sympathy. One thing that governments have been good at is trying their hardest to make it so simple a baby knows they should vote and how.PlatoSaid said:0 -
Which does rather beg the same question about opinion pollspbr2013 said:
Junior posted yesterday (?) about such exit polls: no better than guesswork without the baseline polling station dataset that informs to GE exit polls.David_Evershed said:Some investment banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls during the day today.
Sterlind has strengthened 1.1% so far today.
The FTSE 100 is up 1.15% so far today.
Ergo the vote is for REMAIN.0 -
He always made it clear that he wanted the UK to remain in the EU, but the EU needed reform. I really don't see how anyone could possibly feel betrayed by this.RobD said:Do you genuinely believe he was honest when he said that all options would be considered, implying he would vote Leave if he didn't get what he want. Especially given what he said during the campaign.
In any case, those who seem to think they were betrayed seem remarkably selective in their indignation. Shall I mention the word 'Boris', for example?0 -
I visit there every weekend, my parents live there!TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm trying to make sure you don't have to visit Essex.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I gave The Sun their "Be LEAVE" headline, and you're expecting me NOT to vote???TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't bother going through all that hassle to vote. One vote won't make a difference. HonestSunil_Prasannan said:I've yet to vote BTW, but hope to do so this afternoon. Weather doesn't look toi great in London though. Fine for the moment up in the Midlands.
http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
BTW my presentation was postponed till next week, thankfully
I've taken an elderly voter to the voting station, so he could vote Leave, he was so happy to have voted Leave.
Democracy is great.
(though of course Ilford hasn't administratively been part of Essex since 1965...)
BTW nice one regarding your relative. I'm sure when you are older and wiser, you will also "be LEAVE"0 -
Currently hearing the sound of a megaphone urging me to "vote leave to take back our laws from Brussels"0
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The bottom line, if things turn out as the markets suggest (and if they don't I will have more than my share of egg on my face), is that it is a lot easier to whinge on about the EU and tell any passing pollster that you want to leave, than it is to go into a polling booth and actually vote to trash this country's economy and quite possibly set a ball rolling that wrecks the whole of Europe....Chameleon said:I'm really confused. I've seen nothing today to change my view that this vote is on a knife-edge. Yet I come on here to find confident remained and wailing leavers. Bar the betting markets (who are almost probably as blind as we are, if not more), what has changed?
edit/ you will however notice that the multiple bet that I recommended down below hedges the possibility that I am seriously wrong in a Leave-direction in return for a big loss if Remain over-achieves...0 -
I can't believe people are coming out in droves to support a "remain" vote. But I just don't know.GIN1138 said:Well I voted LEAVE around 30 minutes ago.
Anecdote alert:
Polling station was having a "lull" but one of the ladies handing out ballot papers said it had been the busiest she's ever seen it (and she's been doing this since the 1970 general election)
Google trends data is a mismatch to the polling right now.....................0