William Hill @sharpeangle 6m6 minutes ago Signs of a late gamble on 'Leave' which has attracted 70.4% of all bets struck on the outcome; Hills cut Leave from 3/1 to 11/4. Remain 1/4.
William Hill @sharpeangle 9m9 minutes ago Here's a nice stat from the William EU Ref book - average stake per Leave bet £77.54; average stake per Remain bet £408.45. #EURef
I've backed Leave at a reasonable amount. A modest hedge against armageddon and the idiocy of my fellow countrymen a Leave vote.
I can tell you right here that it doesn't betoken my voting Leave.
I can't be the only one.
I don't think Armageddon. It will be a lot of pain for no real gain but that pain can be mitigated if people are sensible. Mind you, if people were sensible, or at least aware of the likely implications, the might not vote Leave, so who knows?
I must confess, even as a Brexiteer, that I thought the polls would've converged around a 53-47 (and growing) Remain victory split by now. The fact they haven' must be worrying for the Remain camp.
If Comres goes with Leave then I do think Brexit is a possibility tomorrow. Earlier on today I thought Remain was going to edge it relatively comfortably.
My Facebook page colours my view though - I see a lot of LEAVE posts and hardly anyone backing Remain.
My Facebook heavily for "remain". I've posted some stuff relating to betting odds and told people to buy stuff priced fundamentally in USD sooner rather than later, oh and told everyone to vote but haven't done some of the ridiculous preaching I've seen going on.
My Facebook (just checked, a grouping of 1948 people) is about as representative of the working classes as you can get. I doubt any of my 'friends' follow politics as much as I do and none will earn above £80k per annum. Most below £25k.
Mine is graduates, quite alot of scientists. Youngish. Was always going to be for "remain"
Mr. Glenn, I was more thinking that I'd expect (and prior polling supports) men being more for Leave and women being more for Remain, but the opposite is indicated in the figures below.
I must confess, even as a Brexiteer, that I thought the polls would've converged around a 53-47 (and growing) Remain victory split by now. The fact they haven' must be worrying for the Remain camp.
If Comres goes with Leave then I do think Brexit is a possibility tomorrow. Earlier on today I thought Remain was going to edge it relatively comfortably.
My Facebook page colours my view though - I see a lot of LEAVE posts and hardly anyone backing Remain.
My Facebook heavily for "remain". I've posted some stuff relating to betting odds and told people to buy stuff priced fundamentally in USD sooner rather than later, oh and told everyone to vote but haven't done some of the ridiculous preaching I've seen going on.
My Facebook (just checked, a grouping of 1948 people) is about as representative of the working classes as you can get. I doubt any of my 'friends' follow politics as much as I do and none will earn above £80k per annum. Most below £25k.
Mine is graduates, quite alot of scientists. Youngish. Was always going to be for "remain"
Yeah, that sounds very Remainian. You move in posher circles than me LOL - and I'm not some incredibly popular guy, I just know a lot of people through rugby because I coached for years and run the club's website.
Mr. Glenn, I was more thinking that I'd expect (and prior polling supports) men being more for Leave and women being more for Remain, but the opposite is indicated in the figures below.
Women live longer - more likely to be older?
I was campaigning for Boris in 2008 and 2012 I was with him personally on two occasions and I couldn't help noticing that he was far more popular with women than men, he was less popular with white men, even some Tories didn't like him. He was also very popular with ethnic minorities both men and women. As he's the main face of the Leave campaign this could explain it. Little has been said about the ethnic minority vote, but I've got a feeling that the older Commonwealth types are more inclined to support Leave. Of course my experience was only confined to the capital and Boris may not be as popular in the regions.
Mr. Glenn, I was more thinking that I'd expect (and prior polling supports) men being more for Leave and women being more for Remain, but the opposite is indicated in the figures below.
Women live longer - more likely to be older?
I was campaigning for Boris in 2008 and 2012 I was with him personally on two occasions and I couldn't help noticing that he was far more popular with women than men, he was less popular with white men, even some Tories didn't like him. He was also very popular with ethnic minorities both men and women. As he's the main face of the Leave campaign this could explain it. Little has been said about the ethnic minority vote, but I've got a feeling that the older Commonwealth types are more inclined to support Leave. Of course my experience was only confined to the capital and Boris may not be as popular in the regions.
Boris is popular, probably brings out the maternal instinct, as long as he doesn't try for PM.
Posted today by a boy from Merthyr. Not a friend, but I can see it because a friend commented on it. 112 likes! I live further down the valley and opinions are less harsh.
"For me I would rather have to work harder, work longer hours or even pay a little more tax or any of the other things they say we will have to do if we leave the eu, if it means keeping all them migrants who come here and abuse our country and have nothing but bad intentions OUT of our country And in the long run can leave a safer world for our kids and the family we leave behind"
@AndyJS; @Fenster Here is my friend's post (Shared alot) on Brexit:
Some of you will vote 'leave' tomorrow and have just kept quiet about it. That's fine, it's up to you. But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine! This is not something we can ‘vote out’ in a few years’ time. It’s permanent. At this point you’ve heard the facts. You’re probably sick of facts and won’t be convinced to vote Remain by any more. So if you want to vote for 'leave', please don’t so much fact-check, as reality check: look carefully at the two sides: By voting Leave, you are going against the opinion of almost all Britain’s, if not the world’s, scientists, legal experts, business leaders, economists, and most of our politicians. This is not a conspiratorial blob; it is a group disparate individuals and organization across all professional and academic disciplines, often with opposing ideological views, but all agreeing that the UK is stronger in the EU. You are ignoring the problems countries, such as Norway, have in terms of legislation and sovereignty: i.e. obeying the rules without a chance to set them. You are going against the opinion of all our friends, partners and allies around the world from the USA to India to Japan. You are even ignored the Chinese government when they say the UK's world standing will be diminished outside the EU. But, by voting Leave, you are listening to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. You are listening to the campaigners promising a great economic future, yet the sectors that they claim will benefit most from Brexit don’t agree. Think about that. They claim business will boom; business does not agree. You are listening to the call to stick two fingers up to the pampered elites... by listening to the rallying cry of the millionaires Borris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. The latter being on record as saying he hates the EU because they don’t listen to *him*. I’ve heard many Leave voters say “experts” have vested interests in the EU, what do the Brexit-er’s have?
And yes, while I am not implying anything about you personally, it has to be said you are listening to, or at least on the side of, a section of society that believes 'foreigners' are the cause of all our ills. Indeed, as a friend of mine pointed out, on social media “out” videos tend to be by bloggers, “in” videos by professors of economics or law; while Remain have a cornucopia of prominent supporters for TV and radio interviews, Brexit have the same two or three. At some point, the asymmetry in experts and arguments must suggest ‘both sides have their points’ is simply not a credible idea.
But, more importantly, consider this. On the 24th, it will almost be business as usual. This is no glorious revolution; there will be no change to UK domestic politics once the hang-over has worn off. So, do you trust that the Government, based on their behaviour in the last 6 years, will do the following: 1) Spend the money we now pay into the EU on public services, or use it for austerity and tax cuts for the mega-rich? 2) Spend the money that would come back through EU regional development funds in the same regions, or to focus all cash on London and/or areas they want win in 2020. i.e. business as usual? 3) Protect the hard-won workers’ rights, which will legally have to be rewritten in some form because most legislation for the past 30+years is connected to the EU, from the ever more rapacious demands of the mega-rich? 4) Negotiate deals with other countries, and especially the USA, that will benefit the citizens of the UK, rather than ones that will support their personal neo-liberal ideology? Put it simply, Brexit have promised leaving the EU will somehow cure our problems with housing, with schools, with wages and with the NHS. Has this government, and have the Tories inside Brexit especially, done or said anything in the last decade to make you think that solving these problems is on their agenda? Because they haven't and they aren't. If you are voting 'No' based on any of these issues, you will not get what you want. In the last 20years or so we’ve fetishized the idea of ‘going it alone’, but you’re not curating a gap-year Tumblr account or saving your kidnap-prone daughter. It’s a romantic idea, and I know voting for what 'feels right' rather than 'what makes logical sense' has an appeal. But you're not ordering an extra slice of cake. No, you're voting in the most crucial and permanent vote we'll probably ever take part in. Only vote 'Leave' if you can honestly look at yourself in the mirror and say you have seriously considered all the evidence available, both fact-checked and reality-checked it, and can firmly say to have come to a logical conclusion. '
There was actually a lot of chatter about the referendum from customers in the shop I work at today. Opinion seemed more split between Remain and Leave than I would've expected, though Leave still seeming to have the edge.
That @Cardtronics approach is intriguing. One wonders how they weight it for demographics.
The way they do it - only up while the cash is counted, then removed - should automagically factor in propensity to vote. I think the outcome they are predicting is quite reasonable too.
If I die tonight, for whatever reason, I'd like all Leavers to do all they can to exploit my death to the advantage of the Leave campaign, even if it means slightly lying about how I died. And I don't want Remainiacs bitching about it.
Do you think there's any chance Jo Cox would have said something similar a week ago? I suppose the thing that might have stopped her was how it may affect her kids, but their Dad's taken them along today, so..
But, more importantly, consider this. On the 24th, it will almost be business as usual. This is no glorious revolution; there will be no change to UK domestic politics once the hang-over has worn off. So, do you trust that the Government, based on their behaviour in the last 6 years, will do the following: 1) Spend the money we now pay into the EU on public services, or use it for austerity and tax cuts for the mega-rich? 2) Spend the money that would come back through EU regional development funds in the same regions, or to focus all cash on London and/or areas they want win in 2020. i.e. business as usual? 3) Protect the hard-won workers’ rights, which will legally have to be rewritten in some form because most legislation for the past 30+years is connected to the EU, from the ever more rapacious demands of the mega-rich? 4) Negotiate deals with other countries, and especially the USA, that will benefit the citizens of the UK, rather than ones that will support their personal neo-liberal ideology? Put it simply, Brexit have promised leaving the EU will somehow cure our problems with housing, with schools, with wages and with the NHS. Has this government, and have the Tories inside Brexit especially, done or said anything in the last decade to make you think that solving these problems is on their agenda? Because they haven't and they aren't. If you are voting 'No' based on any of these issues, you will not get what you want. In the last 20years or so we’ve fetishized the idea of ‘going it alone’, but you’re not curating a gap-year Tumblr account or saving your kidnap-prone daughter. It’s a romantic idea, and I know voting for what 'feels right' rather than 'what makes logical sense' has an appeal. But you're not ordering an extra slice of cake. No, you're voting in the most crucial and permanent vote we'll probably ever take part in. Only vote 'Leave' if you can honestly look at yourself in the mirror and say you have seriously considered all the evidence available, both fact-checked and reality-checked it, and can firmly say to have come to a logical conclusion. '
I still have absolutely no idea which way this is going to go but there is undoubtedly a delicious sense of desperation creeping into the Remain campaign.
Except the UK is not Quebec. We historically have been a sovereign nation, unlike Quebec, especially in the eyes of older voters.
We will still be a sovereign nation In or Out, the UK will not even be in the Eurozone and Quebec had more cultural differences with the rest of Canada than the UK does with say EU member Ireland
The best Remain can hope for - please let this be Quebec 1995. There little else pointing their way, so now it's just blind hope.
Almost no poll has shown Leave above 50% with undecideds included, where the undecideds go remains pivotal
I cannot believe that they will go as decisively for Remain as they did in Quebec in 1995. They went with their current country at the end of the day, that's not the case here, it is going with the EU - clearly any undecideds now are not super fans of the EU or they'd be Remainers, so they're at best going to be reluctant Remainers, and given that, and the antipathy toward the EU, even if a majority of them go for Remain, I don't think it will be enough.
Remain need a game changer, Leave just need to hold up with what is predicted.
Am I the only person whose family and friends by and large have the good taste not to inflict their views on the referendum on others on Facebook?
Mine too for the most part, except for the most ardent, who spent the early weeks sneering and chortling (ahem) and are now suddenly abashed and contrite and begging people they had previously insulted to vote REMAIN, nonetheless.
Except the UK is not Quebec. We historically have been a sovereign nation, unlike Quebec, especially in the eyes of older voters.
My gut tells me it is the difference between what people were told in 1975 and where we have ended up that is driving a lot of the oldies irritation with the EU
There was actually a lot of chatter about the referendum from customers in the shop I work at today. Opinion seemed more split between Remain and Leave than I would've expected, though Leave still seeming to have the edge.
The hardcore already decideds are clearly for Leave, that is why Leave has a lead in some polls, however the yet to make up their minds may still waver in the polling booth which would be enough for Remain
Am I the only person whose family and friends by and large have the good taste not to inflict their views on the referendum on others on Facebook?
Mine too for the most part, except for the most ardent, who spent the early weeks sneering and chortling (ahem) and are now suddenly abashed and contrite and begging people they had previously insulted to vote REMAIN, nonetheless.
A lesson, there.
I've found Remainers will air their views quite publicly, as though they assume everyone in the vicinity is of the same mind. Leavers are more likely to keep it to themselves.
Similar to a Left v Right, Labour v Tory dynamic. There are definitely shy Leavers.
@AndyJS; @Fenster Here is my friend's post (Shared alot) on Brexit:
Some of you will vote 'leave' tomorrow and have just kept quiet about it. That's fine, it's up to you. But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine! This is not something we can ‘vote out’ in a few years’ time. It’s permanent. At this point you’ve heard the facts. You’re probably sick of facts and won’t be convinced to vote Remain by any more. So if you want to vote for 'leave', please don’t so much fact-check, as reality check: look carefully at the two sides: By voting Leave, you are going against the opinion of almost all Britain’s, if not the world’s, scientists, legal experts, business leaders, economists, and most of our politicians. This is not a conspiratorial blob; it is a group disparate individuals and organization across all professional and academic disciplines, often with opposing ideological views, but all agreeing that the UK is stronger in the EU. You are ignoring the problems countries, such as Norway, have in terms of legislation and sovereignty: i.e. obeying the rules without a chance to set them. You are going against the opinion of all our friends, partners and allies around the world from the USA to India to Japan. You are even ignored the Chinese government when they say the UK's world standing will be diminished outside the EU. But, by voting Leave, you are listening to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. You are listening to the campaigners promising a great economic future, yet the sectors that they claim will benefit most from Brexit don’t agree. Think about that. They claim business will boom; business does not agree. You are listening to the call to stick two fingers up to the pampered elites... by listening to the rallying cry of the millionaires Borris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. The latter being on record as saying he hates the EU because they don’t listen to *him*. I’ve heard many Leave voters say “experts” have vested interests in the EU, what do the Brexit-er’s have?
And yes, while I am not implying anything about you personally, it has to be said you are listening to, or at least on the side of, a section of society that believes 'foreigners' are the cause of all our ills. Indeed, as a friend of mine pointed out, on social media “out” videos tend to be by bloggers, “in” videos by professors of economics or law; while Remain have a cornucopia of prominent supporters for TV and radio interviews, Brexit have the same two or three. At some point, the asymmetry in experts and arguments must suggest ‘both sides have their points’ is simply not a credible idea.
Except the UK is not Quebec. We historically have been a sovereign nation, unlike Quebec, especially in the eyes of older voters.
We will still be a sovereign nation In or Out, the UK will not even be in the Eurozone and Quebec had more cultural differences with the rest of Canada than the UK does with say EU member Ireland
As someone who lived in Quebec, that is nonsense. Ireland is much, much closer culturally to the rest of the UK than Quebec is to the rest of Canada.
Quebec is more of a country than the UK. For example, Quebec -- not Canada --- controls immigration into Quebec, which helps keep the province Francophone.
There was actually a lot of chatter about the referendum from customers in the shop I work at today. Opinion seemed more split between Remain and Leave than I would've expected, though Leave still seeming to have the edge.
The hardcore already decideds are clearly for Leave, that is why Leave has a lead in some polls, however the yet to make up their minds may still waver in the polling booth which would be enough for Remain
OR...it could be like some of those famous LibDem by-election wins in very safe Tory seats, where there was a feeling that they could be in with a shout, but the resulting scale of their win is just "where the fuck did that come from???"
@AndyJS; @Fenster Here is my friend's post (Shared alot) on Brexit:
Some of you will vote 'leave' tomorrow and have just kept quiet about it. That's fine, it's up to you. But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine! This is not something we can ‘vote out’ in a few years’ time. It’s permanent. At this point you’ve heard the facts. You’re probably sick of facts and won’t be convinced to vote Remain by any more. So if you want to vote for 'leave', please don’t so much fact-check, as reality check: look carefully at the two sides: By voting Leave, you are going against the opinion of almost all Britain’s, if not the world’s, scientists, legal experts, business leaders, economists, and most of our politicians. This is not a conspiratorial blob; it is a group disparate individuals and organization across all professional and academic disciplines, often with opposing ideological views, but all agreeing that the UK is stronger in the EU. You are ignoring the problems countries, such as Norway, have in terms of legislation and sovereignty: i.e. obeying the rules without a chance to set them. You are going against the opinion of all our friends, partners and allies around the world from the USA to India to Japan. You are even ignored the Chinese government when they say the UK's world standing will be diminished outside the EU. But, by voting Leave, you are listening to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. You are listening to the campaigners promising a great economic future, yet the sectors that they claim will benefit most from Brexit don’t agree. Think about that. They claim business will boom; business does not agree. You are listening to the call to stick two fingers up to the pampered elites... by listening to the rallying cry of the millionaires Borris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. The latter being on record as saying he hates the EU because they don’t listen to *him*. I’ve heard many Leave voters say “experts” have vested interests in the EU, what do the Brexit-er’s have?
.....
Stopped reading when I read 'Norway'.
I didn't bother reading when I saw the length of it - and pretty well any Leaver would do the same. It is a D- in PR and an E in advertising - no punch.
The best Remain can hope for - please let this be Quebec 1995. There little else pointing their way, so now it's just blind hope.
Almost no poll has shown Leave above 50% with undecideds included, where the undecideds go remains pivotal
I cannot believe that they will go as decisively for Remain as they did in Quebec in 1995. They went with their current country at the end of the day, that's not the case here, it is going with the EU - clearly any undecideds now are not super fans of the EU or they'd be Remainers, so they're at best going to be reluctant Remainers, and given that, and the antipathy toward the EU, even if a majority of them go for Remain, I don't think it will be enough.
Remain need a game changer, Leave just need to hold up with what is predicted.
We have had two polls in the last 2 days with Remain ahead, ORB and Survation, Opinium today had Leave ahead by 1%, apart from TNS Remain are doing better than Yes were at this stage in Quebec in most polls and 2 more tonight. A majority of French Quebecois voted for independence but not quite enough. England may well vote Leave but not by enough to overcome the more europhile Celts
The best Remain can hope for - please let this be Quebec 1995. There little else pointing their way, so now it's just blind hope.
Almost no poll has shown Leave above 50% with undecideds included, where the undecideds go remains pivotal
undecideds won't vote
Undecideds are not won't votes, they are a seperate category and it was undecideds who determined Quebec's referendum
Yes you only have to listen to the various voxpops who interview plenty of undecideds and they sure as hell are going to vote.
Albeit they have no idea who to vote for.
I mean if you have come this far, listened even vaguely to the arguments, which you can't have avoided, and are undecided, that to me says: Remain.
If it's immigration, you would instantly have welcomed the referendum as a chance to vote for fewer foreigners; if it's sovereignty, you would instantly have welcomed the referendum as a chance to have UK-only kettle specifications.
If either of these things are "meh" then you are voting Remain.
The best Remain can hope for - please let this be Quebec 1995. There little else pointing their way, so now it's just blind hope.
Almost no poll has shown Leave above 50% with undecideds included, where the undecideds go remains pivotal
undecideds won't vote
Even those saying they are 10/10 certain to vote?
Yep.. If you haven't made you mind up yet I really doubt you are going to...
Some may regard voting as a duty and turnout, in which case even if at seeming random they'll vote for someone. But breaking heavily for the status quo in quebec is not the same as breaking for the 'status quo' here, and Remain may need it too.
If Remain lose it is because the PM and Osborne's dire predictions were so ridiculous that no one took them seriously. Perhaps if they were more realistic with the downsides they would have got a fairer hearing. I mean ww3 and global brexit recession. C'mon really? No one believes that.
Am I the only person whose family and friends by and large have the good taste not to inflict their views on the referendum on others on Facebook?
Mine too for the most part, except for the most ardent, who spent the early weeks sneering and chortling (ahem) and are now suddenly abashed and contrite and begging people they had previously insulted to vote REMAIN, nonetheless.
A lesson, there.
I've found Remainers will air their views quite publicly, as though they assume everyone in the vicinity is of the same mind. Leavers are more likely to keep it to themselves.
Similar to a Left v Right, Labour v Tory dynamic. There are definitely shy Leavers.
Shy leavers? the people in my office are not shy about voting leave whatsoever
Very strong vox pop for Leave on news. Sums up Remain's problems 'I'm voting leave because I'm proud in my country.'
Which REMAIN has only made worse by spending weeks running the country down and making out we're some pathetic waste of space that owe's everything we have to the EU.
If Remain lose it is because the PM and Osborne's dire predictions were so ridiculous that no one took them seriously. Perhaps if they were more realistic with the downsides they would have got a fairer hearing. I mean ww3 and global brexit recession. C'mon really? No one believes that.
Even the Sky economics guy was mocking them today. Saying basically they took the worst parts of the worst parts of the various models and extrapolated, rather than say there a risk of a short term hit.
Nothing different to what we've heard from the Remain campaign for months. Right down to Putin.
We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.
The voters will want the blood of anyone who agrees to that after a campaign fought on ending free movement. Personally it would be my preferred leave scenario too but I can't see it being politically possible.
Post Brexit domestic politics will be ugly indeed and I fear a return to political violence.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo.
ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict ,without consulting us, from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
Mine is relatively calm, the odd Op-Ed article shared here and there, some Daily Mash brexit gag articles. One or two 'declaring' for Remain, but not going on about it.
Demographic is 25-50, friends, colleagues, mostly MC, predominantly white. Range of voting intentions. Spread geographically across the UK. My only very right wing Tory friend, who started off as a full on Brexiter, is now undecided, which is not like him, but he works in the City.
I must admit that the sanctimonious tone of some of the Remainers, particularly the Twitter celebs, is painful and full of class-ridden snobbery. As a soft Remain, it makes me cringe.
Just returned from handing out leaflets at my local station in Lewisham. Obviously lots of support for Remain. One interesting titbit i picked up though: apparently national registration is up 7% nationally but in Lewisham it is up 20%!!!
Nothing different to what we've heard from the Remain campaign for months. Right down to Putin.
We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.
The voters will want the blood of anyone who agrees to that after a campaign fought on ending free movement. Personally it would be my preferred leave scenario too but I can't see it being politically possible.
Post Brexit domestic politics will be ugly indeed and I fear a return to political violence.
The emergency brake (a real one) will be pulled immediately. As long as a reduction in net numbers is demonstrable by GE2020, it should be ok.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
But, more importantly, consider this. On the 24th, it will almost be business as usual. This is no glorious revolution; there will be no change to UK domestic politics once the hang-over has worn off. So, do you trust that the Government, based on their behaviour in the last 6 years, will do the following: 1) Spend the money we now pay into the EU on public services, or use it for austerity and tax cuts for the mega-rich? 2) Spend the money that would come back through EU regional development funds in the same regions, or to focus all cash on London and/or areas they want win in 2020. i.e. business as usual? 3) Protect the hard-won workers’ rights, which will legally have to be rewritten in some form because most legislation for the past 30+years is connected to the EU, from the ever more rapacious demands of the mega-rich? 4) Negotiate deals with other countries, and especially the USA, that will benefit the citizens of the UK, rather than ones that will support their personal neo-liberal ideology? Put it simply, Brexit have promised leaving the EU will somehow cure our problems with housing, with schools, with wages and with the NHS. Has this government, and have the Tories inside Brexit especially, done or said anything in the last decade to make you think that solving these problems is on their agenda? Because they haven't and they aren't. If you are voting 'No' based on any of these issues, you will not get what you want. In the last 20years or so we’ve fetishized the idea of ‘going it alone’, but you’re not curating a gap-year Tumblr account or saving your kidnap-prone daughter. It’s a romantic idea, and I know voting for what 'feels right' rather than 'what makes logical sense' has an appeal. But you're not ordering an extra slice of cake. No, you're voting in the most crucial and permanent vote we'll probably ever take part in. Only vote 'Leave' if you can honestly look at yourself in the mirror and say you have seriously considered all the evidence available, both fact-checked and reality-checked it, and can firmly say to have come to a logical conclusion. '
I’ll go with all that. I can’t see a sensible, as opposed to a romantic, case for voting Leave. Doing so will means years of uncertaintity, doubt andf confusion.
And yes, while I am not implying anything about you personally, it has to be said you are listening to, or at least on the side of, a section of society that believes 'foreigners' are the cause of all our ills.
I'm having a reddit conversion along these lines. I'm selling Labour Leave, in return I'm being called a racist idiot.
Just returned from handing out leaflets at my local station in Lewisham. Obviously lots of support for Remain. One interesting titbit i picked up though: apparently national registration is up 7% nationally but in Lewisham it is up 20%!!!
@SeanT That's why I keep my political thoughts for here. That way I have no need to feel abashed or contrite.
Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.
I've been revealing my political interest in stages - it's like coming out as a pervert gradually to try to lessen the pushback. (I assume)
'You created your own spreadsheet for political results? Ookay *backs away*'
I had a very similar experience when discussing weight training with a friend who considered himself a bit of an expert. "You keep a record of everything? And track it? Using Excel? With predictive formulas?"
And yes, while I am not implying anything about you personally, it has to be said you are listening to, or at least on the side of, a section of society that believes 'foreigners' are the cause of all our ills.
I'm having a reddit conversion along these lines. I'm selling Labour Leave, in return I'm being called a racist idiot.
The key to debate is compromise - you should ask if you can be merely an idiot or merely a racist.
Comments
EDIT bah, RobD got there first.
William: BREEEXXIIITTT!!!!!
cue: Great Escape music.
Leger Yes 47 No 41
SOM Yes 46 No 40
Angus Reid Yes 48 No 44
CROP Yes 44 No 43
Gallup Yes 39 No 43
Createc Yes 43 No 49
LePage Yes 45 No 42
Result Yes 49 No 51
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
He was also very popular with ethnic minorities both men and women. As he's the main face of the Leave campaign this could explain it.
Little has been said about the ethnic minority vote, but I've got a feeling that the older Commonwealth types are more inclined to support Leave.
Of course my experience was only confined to the capital and Boris may not be as popular in the regions.
"For me I would rather have to work harder, work longer hours or even pay a little more tax or any of the other things they say we will have to do if we leave the eu, if it means keeping all them migrants who come here and abuse our country and have nothing but bad intentions OUT of our country And in the long run can leave a safer world for our kids and the family we leave behind"
!!
Some of you will vote 'leave' tomorrow and have just kept quiet about it. That's fine, it's up to you.
But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine! This is not something we can ‘vote out’ in a few years’ time. It’s permanent.
At this point you’ve heard the facts. You’re probably sick of facts and won’t be convinced to vote Remain by any more. So if you want to vote for 'leave', please don’t so much fact-check, as reality check: look carefully at the two sides:
By voting Leave, you are going against the opinion of almost all Britain’s, if not the world’s, scientists, legal experts, business leaders, economists, and most of our politicians. This is not a conspiratorial blob; it is a group disparate individuals and organization across all professional and academic disciplines, often with opposing ideological views, but all agreeing that the UK is stronger in the EU.
You are ignoring the problems countries, such as Norway, have in terms of legislation and sovereignty: i.e. obeying the rules without a chance to set them.
You are going against the opinion of all our friends, partners and allies around the world from the USA to India to Japan. You are even ignored the Chinese government when they say the UK's world standing will be diminished outside the EU.
But, by voting Leave, you are listening to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.
You are listening to the campaigners promising a great economic future, yet the sectors that they claim will benefit most from Brexit don’t agree. Think about that. They claim business will boom; business does not agree.
You are listening to the call to stick two fingers up to the pampered elites... by listening to the rallying cry of the millionaires Borris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. The latter being on record as saying he hates the EU because they don’t listen to *him*. I’ve heard many Leave voters say “experts” have vested interests in the EU, what do the Brexit-er’s have?
And yes, while I am not implying anything about you personally, it has to be said you are listening to, or at least on the side of, a section of society that believes 'foreigners' are the cause of all our ills.
Indeed, as a friend of mine pointed out, on social media “out” videos tend to be by bloggers, “in” videos by professors of economics or law; while Remain have a cornucopia of prominent supporters for TV and radio interviews, Brexit have the same two or three. At some point, the asymmetry in experts and arguments must suggest ‘both sides have their points’ is simply not a credible idea.
On the 24th, it will almost be business as usual. This is no glorious revolution; there will be no change to UK domestic politics once the hang-over has worn off. So, do you trust that the Government, based on their behaviour in the last 6 years, will do the following:
1) Spend the money we now pay into the EU on public services, or use it for austerity and tax cuts for the mega-rich?
2) Spend the money that would come back through EU regional development funds in the same regions, or to focus all cash on London and/or areas they want win in 2020. i.e. business as usual?
3) Protect the hard-won workers’ rights, which will legally have to be rewritten in some form because most legislation for the past 30+years is connected to the EU, from the ever more rapacious demands of the mega-rich?
4) Negotiate deals with other countries, and especially the USA, that will benefit the citizens of the UK, rather than ones that will support their personal neo-liberal ideology?
Put it simply, Brexit have promised leaving the EU will somehow cure our problems with housing, with schools, with wages and with the NHS. Has this government, and have the Tories inside Brexit especially, done or said anything in the last decade to make you think that solving these problems is on their agenda? Because they haven't and they aren't.
If you are voting 'No' based on any of these issues, you will not get what you want.
In the last 20years or so we’ve fetishized the idea of ‘going it alone’, but you’re not curating a gap-year Tumblr account or saving your kidnap-prone daughter. It’s a romantic idea, and I know voting for what 'feels right' rather than 'what makes logical sense' has an appeal. But you're not ordering an extra slice of cake. No, you're voting in the most crucial and permanent vote we'll probably ever take part in.
Only vote 'Leave' if you can honestly look at yourself in the mirror and say you have seriously considered all the evidence available, both fact-checked and reality-checked it, and can firmly say to have come to a logical conclusion. '
There was actually a lot of chatter about the referendum from customers in the shop I work at today. Opinion seemed more split between Remain and Leave than I would've expected, though Leave still seeming to have the edge.
Do you think there's any chance Jo Cox would have said something similar a week ago? I suppose the thing that might have stopped her was how it may affect her kids, but their Dad's taken them along today, so..
Remain need a game changer, Leave just need to hold up with what is predicted.
I'm pretty sure I used it to buy a coffee in Costa in the midlands recently.
Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.
Similar to a Left v Right, Labour v Tory dynamic. There are definitely shy Leavers.
Quebec is more of a country than the UK. For example, Quebec -- not Canada --- controls immigration into Quebec, which helps keep the province Francophone.
'You created your own spreadsheet for political results? Ookay *backs away*'
Albeit they have no idea who to vote for.
I mean if you have come this far, listened even vaguely to the arguments, which you can't have avoided, and are undecided, that to me says: Remain.
If it's immigration, you would instantly have welcomed the referendum as a chance to vote for fewer foreigners; if it's sovereignty, you would instantly have welcomed the referendum as a chance to have UK-only kettle specifications.
If either of these things are "meh" then you are voting Remain.
We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.
'We'll get EEA-EFTA if it's a narrow Leave vote and I'd be very happy with that.'
Me too,best of both worlds.
Post Brexit domestic politics will be ugly indeed and I fear a return to political violence.
ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict ,without consulting us, from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
Demographic is 25-50, friends, colleagues, mostly MC, predominantly white. Range of voting intentions. Spread geographically across the UK. My only very right wing Tory friend, who started off as a full on Brexiter, is now undecided, which is not like him, but he works in the City.
I must admit that the sanctimonious tone of some of the Remainers, particularly the Twitter celebs, is painful and full of class-ridden snobbery. As a soft Remain, it makes me cringe.
EDIT: narrow as in England votes Leave narrow?
Stopped reading when I read 'Norway'.
I stopped at 'But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine!' - how patronising.