The best Remain can hope for - please let this be Quebec 1995. There little else pointing their way, so now it's just blind hope.
Almost no poll has shown Leave above 50% with undecideds included, where the undecideds go remains pivotal
undecideds won't vote
Undecideds are not won't votes, they are a seperate category and it was undecideds who determined Quebec's referendum
Yes you only have to listen to the various voxpops who interview plenty of undecideds and they sure as hell are going to vote.
Albeit they have no idea who to vote for.
I mean if you have come this far, listened even vaguely to the arguments, which you can't have avoided, and are undecided, that to me says: Remain.
If it's immigration, you would instantly have welcomed the referendum as a chance to vote for fewer foreigners; if it's sovereignty, you would instantly have welcomed the referendum as a chance to have UK-only kettle specifications.
If either of these things are "meh" then you are voting Remain.
@AndyJS; @Fenster Here is my friend's post (Shared alot) on Brexit:
Some of you will vote 'leave' tomorrow and have just kept quiet about it. That's fine, it's up to you. But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine! This is not something we can ‘vote out’ in a few years’ time. It’s permanent. At this point you’ve heard the facts. You’re probably sick of facts and won’t be convinced to vote Remain by any more. So if you want to vote for 'leave', please don’t so much fact-check, as reality check: look carefully at the two sides: By voting Leave, you are going against the opinion of almost all Britain’s, if not the world’s, scientists, legal experts, business leaders, economists, and most of our politicians. This is not a conspiratorial blob; it is a group disparate individuals and organization across all professional and academic disciplines, often with opposing ideological views, but all agreeing that the UK is stronger in the EU. You are ignoring the problems countries, such as Norway, have in terms of legislation and sovereignty: i.e. obeying the rules without a chance to set them. You are going against the opinion of all our friends, partners and allies around the world from the USA to India to Japan. You are even ignored the Chinese government when they say the UK's world standing will be diminished outside the EU. But, by voting Leave, you are listening to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. You are listening to the campaigners promising a great economic future, yet the sectors that they claim will benefit most from Brexit don’t agree. Think about that. They claim business will boom; business does not agree. You are listening to the call to stick two fingers up to the pampered elites... by listening to the rallying cry of the millionaires Borris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. The latter being on record as saying he hates the EU because they don’t listen to *him*. I’ve heard many Leave voters say “experts” have vested interests in the EU, what do the Brexit-er’s have?
.....
Stopped reading when I read 'Norway'.
I didn't bother reading when I saw the length of it - and pretty well any Leaver would do the same. It is a D- in PR and an E in advertising - no punch.
Scanned down the slab of text, saw Trump/Putin/Dacre/Murdoch and I rolled my eyes. Skipped to the end and genuinely LOL'd. What a dickhead.
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
Except the UK is not Quebec. We historically have been a sovereign nation, unlike Quebec, especially in the eyes of older voters.
We will still be a sovereign nation In or Out, the UK will not even be in the Eurozone and Quebec had more cultural differences with the rest of Canada than the UK does with say EU member Ireland
As someone who lived in Quebec, that is nonsense. Ireland is much, much closer culturally to the rest of the UK than Quebec is to the rest of Canada.
Quebec is more of a country than the UK. For example, Quebec -- not Canada --- controls immigration into Quebec, which helps keep the province Francophone.
Was in an office of 20 or so today in Reading. Mostly female (80%ish), on the whole fairly young (mid 30s average), all with degrees or better. It was split 50/50. As ever beware the anecdata, but this looks good for leave.
@AndyJS; @Fenster Here is my friend's post (Shared alot) on Brexit:
Some of you will vote 'leave' tomorrow and have just kept quiet about it. That's fine, it's up to you. But please, remember this vote will affect you, your children and your grandchildren, and more importantly mine! This is not something we can ‘vote out’ in a few years’ time. It’s permanent. At this point you’ve heard the facts. You’re probably sick of facts and won’t be convinced to vote Remain by any more. So if you want to vote for 'leave', please don’t so much fact-check, as reality check: look carefully at the two sides: By voting Leave, you are going against the opinion of almost all Britain’s, if not the world’s, scientists, legal experts, business leaders, economists, and most of our politicians. This is not a conspiratorial blob; it is a group disparate individuals and organization across all professional and academic disciplines, often with opposing ideological views, but all agreeing that the UK is stronger in the EU. You are ignoring the problems countries, such as Norway, have in terms of legislation and sovereignty: i.e. obeying the rules without a chance to set them. You are going against the opinion of all our friends, partners and allies around the world from the USA to India to Japan. You are even ignored the Chinese government when they say the UK's world standing will be diminished outside the EU. But, by voting Leave, you are listening to Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. You are listening to the campaigners promising a great economic future, yet the sectors that they claim will benefit most from Brexit don’t agree. Think about that. They claim business will boom; business does not agree. You are listening to the call to stick two fingers up to the pampered elites... by listening to the rallying cry of the millionaires Borris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Paul Dacre and Rupert Murdoch. The latter being on record as saying he hates the EU because they don’t listen to *him*. I’ve heard many Leave voters say “experts” have vested interests in the EU, what do the Brexit-er’s have?
.....
Stopped reading when I read 'Norway'.
I didn't bother reading when I saw the length of it - and pretty well any Leaver would do the same. It is a D- in PR and an E in advertising - no punch.
Scanned down the slab of text, saw Trump/Putin/Dacre/Murdoch and I rolled my eyes. Skipped to the end and genuinely LOL'd. What a dickhead.
Posts like that make me want to vote Leave even more (not yours, Pulp's FB friend)
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
I agree. The problem is that Leave instead of saying "we disagree with these people and we have some pretty serious people supporting us" said "don't listen to experts"....
@SeanT That's why I keep my political thoughts for here. That way I have no need to feel abashed or contrite.
Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.
I've been revealing my political interest in stages - it's like coming out as a pervert gradually to try to lessen the pushback. (I assume)
'You created your own spreadsheet for political results? Ookay *backs away*'
I had a very similar experience when discussing weight training with a friend who considered himself a bit of an expert. "You keep a record of everything? And track it? Using Excel? With predictive formulas?"
"Darling, I'm worried, you spend evening after evening exchanging frantic messages on your laptop. Tell me the truth, is there someone else?"
"Yes! I've been trying for three hours to convince a drunken cornishman taking a trip along the Sankosh river about the importance of the by-election in upper piddleton - there was a swing of 3.2% from Con to Lab - and they just won't have it!"
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
Those economists are pretty serious dudes. Disagree with them, use your own inputs, provide, a la Minford, different models. But dismiss them?
Hmm.
Of course you are right, it is all political. That is the whole point of the referendum. Just that I don't think that those institutes have compromised their professional integrity for the sake of politics.
Except the UK is not Quebec. We historically have been a sovereign nation, unlike Quebec, especially in the eyes of older voters.
We will still be a sovereign nation In or Out, the UK will not even be in the Eurozone and Quebec had more cultural differences with the rest of Canada than the UK does with say EU member Ireland
As someone who lived in Quebec, that is nonsense. Ireland is much, much closer culturally to the rest of the UK than Quebec is to the rest of Canada.
Quebec is more of a country than the UK. For example, Quebec -- not Canada --- controls immigration into Quebec, which helps keep the province Francophone.
That just reinforces the point even more
Imagine what would have happened in that referendum and voting no meant having to let unlimited numbers of english speakers in to settle.....
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
I agree. The problem is that Leave instead of saying "we disagree with these people and we have some pretty serious people supporting us" said "don't listen to experts"....
Then roll out their own experts. It's a line that's working though.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Leave would change the course of history. Remain would be a footnote.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Am I the only person whose family and friends by and large have the good taste not to inflict their views on the referendum on others on Facebook?
Mine too for the most part, except for the most ardent, who spent the early weeks sneering and chortling (ahem) and are now suddenly abashed and contrite and begging people they had previously insulted to vote REMAIN, nonetheless.
A lesson, there.
I've found Remainers will air their views quite publicly, as though they assume everyone in the vicinity is of the same mind. Leavers are more likely to keep it to themselves.
Similar to a Left v Right, Labour v Tory dynamic. There are definitely shy Leavers.
Shy leavers? the people in my office are not shy about voting leave whatsoever
Yes people aged 25- to about 35 are shy to admit to supporting leave if they live in a big city like London and Manchester and work in a professional job. Won't mention on fb they support Leave. Everyone in their peer are virtue signalling by saying they will vote remain. Most will, but a significant minority won't.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Thats like saying well we will change the colours we use on MOTD graphics for the various teams to assist those who are colour bind.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Good point. I use Color Oracle on the Mac to make sure my figures/plots are colourblind friendly, so I'm doing my part
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
The 'they have the experts, we have the ex-experts' could have been quite a good argument for Leave I think - ie when someone leaves office and is no longer subject to the patronage of politicians or the interconnected web of internationalist organisations, they state their opinion without fear or favour. John Longworth, Mervyn King, Digby Jones, Nigel Lawson and Norman Lamont, and a smattering of former international high ups. The actual experts are the stronger argument, but the ex-expert argument is quite a powerful rearguard action.
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
I agree. The problem is that Leave instead of saying "we disagree with these people and we have some pretty serious people supporting us" said "don't listen to experts"....
The roll out their own experts. It's a line that's working though.
The thing is - there ARE no experts - has ANYONE got a PhD or Masters on "The economic and social effect on Countries leaving the EU"?
Well we can guarantee in 10 years time some will - and there will be more than 1 or 2 examples.
To be fair if you dont use capital letters this battle IS small l liberals versus small C conservatives with the liberals figbting to save membership of an organisation that institutionalises their values.
Very strong vox pop for Leave on news. Sums up Remain's problems 'I'm voting leave because I'm proud in my country.'
Which REMAIN has only made worse by spending weeks running the country down and making out we're some pathetic waste of space that owe's everything we have to the EU.
For me - it was the Obama stunt that started it. It was so incredibly badly judged.
I have voted by post and voted Remain. I expect Leave to win. I shall, with my assets abroad and a well protected pension, watch with amusement as this country goes down the tube. Hopefully the young will be able to get out.....
Very strong vox pop for Leave on news. Sums up Remain's problems 'I'm voting leave because I'm proud in my country.'
Which REMAIN has only made worse by spending weeks running the country down and making out we're some pathetic waste of space that owe's everything we have to the EU.
I've been amazed at the number of remainers on my facebook who think they are going to convince someone by writing long, heartfelt posts which call the other side idiots/stupid.
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
Those economists are pretty serious dudes. Disagree with them, use your own inputs, provide, a la Minford, different models. But dismiss them?
Hmm.
Of course you are right, it is all political. That is the whole point of the referendum. Just that I don't think that those institutes have compromised their professional integrity for the sake of politics.
Of course I don't dismiss them, i'm not a nutter, but nor do I unquestionably accept the conclusions they proffer without challenge.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Have the older voters forgotten how crap Britain was in the 1970s? Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
Any privately commissioned exit poll is likely to be worthless. Ignore any rumours based upon such polls.
Curtice also explained today that the reason the GE exit poll works is because they have many reference points, from the same polling stations (!), over several general elections, to determine and weight the responses they get.
I have voted by post and voted Remain. I expect Leave to win. I shall, with my assets abroad and a well protected pension, watch with amusement as this country goes down the tube. Hopefully the young will be able to get out.....
That's what some people said when we didn't join the Euro
I have voted by post and voted Remain. I expect Leave to win. I shall, with my assets abroad and a well protected pension, watch with amusement as this country goes down the tube. Hopefully the young will be able to get out.....
Just like when we left the ERM and didnt join the Euro.....
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
I agree. The problem is that Leave instead of saying "we disagree with these people and we have some pretty serious people supporting us" said "don't listen to experts"....
Yeah, I know. But Leave are at it too with the politics.
They calculate that taps into a visceral frustration with the establishment that harvests more votes.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Thats like saying well we will change the colours we use on MOTD graphics for the various teams to assist those who are colour bind.
And from an equal ops point of view, so they should. Some matches I just switch off because I can't tell which player is from which team. I also prefer white ball cricket for a similar reason.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Leave would change the course of history. Remain would be a footnote.
It's anything but the status quo choice.
So for those people for whom the status quo doesnt work it's a logical choice
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Have the older voters forgotten how crap Britain was in the 1970s? Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
Casual racism on the telly. WTF has that got to do with the EU?
And it was Thatcher that sorted the rest in the teeth of EU opposition from Delors et al
Just returned from handing out leaflets at my local station in Lewisham. Obviously lots of support for Remain. One interesting titbit i picked up though: apparently national registration is up 7% nationally but in Lewisham it is up 20%!!!
Registration in London is little higher than last year, It's up most in the areas that UKIP did best in the 2014 Euros.
@SeanT That's why I keep my political thoughts for here. That way I have no need to feel abashed or contrite.
Most of my friends and family have no real idea of my parallel existence here. Just as well all round, I'd say.
I've been revealing my political interest in stages - it's like coming out as a pervert gradually to try to lessen the pushback. (I assume)
'You created your own spreadsheet for political results? Ookay *backs away*'
I had a very similar experience when discussing weight training with a friend who considered himself a bit of an expert. "You keep a record of everything? And track it? Using Excel? With predictive formulas?"
"Darling, I'm worried, you spend evening after evening exchanging frantic messages on your laptop. Tell me the truth, is there someone else?"
"Yes! I've been trying for three hours to convince a drunken cornishman taking a trip along the Sankosh river about the importance of the by-election in upper piddleton - there was a swing of 3.2% from Con to Lab - and they just won't have it!"
I've been amazed at the number of remainers on my facebook who think they are going to convince someone by writing long, heartfelt posts which call the other side idiots/stupid.
I've had all sorts of nonsense. The Empire comes up quite a lot, with some 'one love' sentiment at the end.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Have the older voters forgotten how crap Britain was in the 1970s? Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
How come the 70s come out consistently as the UKs most happy decade ? With 1976 the best year ever .
These players have millions to spend, because the potential profits could be even greater. I find it hard to believe they couldn't afford the very best polling. And they are far from stupid. Why would they waste money on "worthless" polls?
We shall see. But I say: Watch the markets.
There's a reason why no TV network is going near any sort of exit polling, is fraught with danger.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Thats like saying well we will change the colours we use on MOTD graphics for the various teams to assist those who are colour bind.
And from an equal ops point of view, so they should. Some matches I just switch off because I can't tell which player is from which team. I also prefer white ball cricket for a similar reason.
No they shouldn't, as that would confuse the vast vast majority who aren't colour blind. That is not reasonable adjustment.
In reality, if they were smart, with digital tv / internet streaming etc, they could offer an alternative overlay that is "easy accesible" for those who are colour blind which you could switch to. And perhaps make it larger for those whose sight isn't great...
Swedish MEP praying for a domino effect if Britain Leaves...
OK then, we may start EU-II...
British Values, British Law. Who's in?
They could always join the Commonwealth. Its open to the non colonised now with the Mozambique precedent (which annoyed Portugal btw) and a good chunk of us are scandanavian thanks to the vikings.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Have the older voters forgotten how crap Britain was in the 1970s? Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
Yes, but it's difficult to credit the EEC with the transformation, or to believe we'd be going back to that if we voted Leave. Consider the change from the early 30s to the 70s - that transformation wasn't down to membership of a supra-national organisation.
But if you are minded to believe if we vote leave on Friday we'll go back to the 1970s, this is the sort of entertainment we can look forward to at the weekend: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ig4Es436IY
These players have millions to spend, because the potential profits could be even greater. I find it hard to believe they couldn't afford the very best polling. And they are far from stupid. Why would they waste money on "worthless" polls?
We shall see. But I say: Watch the markets.
It's quite a good reason for lying to the pollsters!
Referendum segment on the BBC news. They say we'll have the result by 6am friday morning.
The final result yes. But I'd have thought we'll know which way its going pretty early 1-2am?
That depends on just how close it is. Only around 15 out of 380+ areas are expected to report by 2.00 a.m so a very small proportion of the whole therefore.
'I have voted by post and voted Remain. I expect Leave to win. I shall, with my assets abroad and a well protected pension, watch with amusement as this country goes down the tube. Hopefully the young will be able to get out.....'
Hopefully they can get out before the swarm of locusts.
Casual racism of course has been eradicated across Europe because of the EU....yeah perhaps not. Again for all the nonsense peddled in this referendum, the UK remains one of the most tolerant places for migrants of all backgrounds.
Just returned from handing out leaflets at my local station in Lewisham. Obviously lots of support for Remain. One interesting titbit i picked up though: apparently national registration is up 7% nationally but in Lewisham it is up 20%!!!
Registration in London is little higher than last year, It's up most in the areas that UKIP did best in the 2014 Euros.
These players have millions to spend, because the potential profits could be even greater. I find it hard to believe they couldn't afford the very best polling. And they are far from stupid. Why would they waste money on "worthless" polls?
We shall see. But I say: Watch the markets.
they should give 10,000 people a monkey each. 20,000 even.
They would make multiple times that investment if they got it right.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Have the older voters forgotten how crap Britain was in the 1970s? Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
How come the 70s come out consistently as the UKs most happy decade ? With 1976 the best year ever .
Swedish MEP praying for a domino effect if Britain Leaves...
OK then, we may start EU-II...
British Values, British Law. Who's in?
They could always join the Commonwealth. Its open to the non colonised now with the Mozambique precedent (which annoyed Portugal btw) and a good chunk of us are scandanavian thanks to the vikings.
For anyone who has been around a few years Leave is the status quo ie remain a soverign independent state and stop those politicians who have been signing sovereignty abolishing treaties since Maastrict from selling our sovereign independence down the river.
For anyone under 40/50 the EU is the status quo, they do not remember a time we were not in the EEC/EC/EU. Hence under 50s for Remain
Im under 50. Under 40 I would agree.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Have the older voters forgotten how crap Britain was in the 1970s? Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
How come the 70s come out consistently as the UKs most happy decade ? With 1976 the best year ever .
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Thats like saying well we will change the colours we use on MOTD graphics for the various teams to assist those who are colour bind.
And from an equal ops point of view, so they should. Some matches I just switch off because I can't tell which player is from which team. I also prefer white ball cricket for a similar reason.
No they shouldn't, as that would confuse the vast vast majority who aren't colour blind. That is not reasonable adjustment.
In reality, if they were smart, with digital tv / internet streaming etc, they could offer an alternative overlay that is "easy accesible" for those who are colour blind which you could switch to. And perhaps make it larger for those whose sight isn't great...
Why would it confuse them? I note than in the euros teams are switching between home/away strips for each match and that doesn't seem to have caused any problems. As long as I pay the full licence fee I reckon I'm entitled to an equivalent opportunity to enjoy a match as everyone else. Of course, it was all so much simpler when we only had black and white tellies...!
Referendum segment on the BBC news. They say we'll have the result by 6am friday morning.
The final result yes. But I'd have thought we'll know which way its going pretty early 1-2am?
That depends on just how close it is. Only around 15 out of 380+ areas are expected to report by 2.00 a.m so a very small proportion of the whole therefore.
The problem with the European Union is we weren't there at the start. We tried joining in the belief that we could change it. That didn't work. But every instinct suggests we should play an active role in continental politics. So what is the solution?
Destroy the European Union from within and then rebuild some kind of new European Association with the UK at the heart of devising it.
'I have voted by post and voted Remain. I expect Leave to win. I shall, with my assets abroad and a well protected pension, watch with amusement as this country goes down the tube. Hopefully the young will be able to get out.....'
Hopefully they can get out before the swarm of locusts.
I only hope the tin opener will cope with the 10 year store of corned beef in the attic.
Then of course there's the wolves. Vikings. Zeppelin attacks from Russia.
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
Those economists are pretty serious dudes. Disagree with them, use your own inputs, provide, a la Minford, different models. But dismiss them?
Hmm.
Of course you are right, it is all political. That is the whole point of the referendum. Just that I don't think that those institutes have compromised their professional integrity for the sake of politics.
I have to say Topping that if every economist in the world came out and said we would be better off leaving (although it would make me happy on one level) I still wouldn't believe a word they said. Economics as practiced at this level of large scale national and international predictions appears to me to be one of the biggest con jobs around.
There is an old joke about my discipline (Geology) being just alcohol and guessing. Economics just seems to me to be guessing without the alcohol (and that is not a better thing)
These players have millions to spend, because the potential profits could be even greater. I find it hard to believe they couldn't afford the very best polling. And they are far from stupid. Why would they waste money on "worthless" polls?
We shall see. But I say: Watch the markets.
I was asked by one of the smartest hedge fund managers in London (who's also the largest non-management CrowdScores investor) for introductions to polling industry people (via OGH) to organise a Brexit exit poll.
The polling company (to remain nameless) said basically:
Our exit poll at the General Election is based on having a large number of polling stations we have historic data for. By looking at that, we can calculate swings and subswings.
For the Euro referendum, that's simply not possible.
We have turned down 500k+ to organise an exit poll, but it could be little better than a guess.
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
Those economists are pretty serious dudes. Disagree with them, use your own inputs, provide, a la Minford, different models. But dismiss them?
Hmm.
Of course you are right, it is all political. That is the whole point of the referendum. Just that I don't think that those institutes have compromised their professional integrity for the sake of politics.
I have to say Topping that if every economist in the world came out and said we would be better off leaving (although it would make me happy on one level) I still wouldn't believe a word they said. Economics as practiced at this level of large scale national and international predictions appears to me to be one of the biggest con jobs around.
There is an old joke about my discipline (Geology) being just alcohol and guessing. Economics just seems to me to be guessing without the alcohol (and that is not a better thing)
Actually, it's cocaine, methampetamine, Gitanes, and guesswork.
Swedish MEP praying for a domino effect if Britain Leaves...
OK then, we may start EU-II...
British Values, British Law. Who's in?
They could always join the Commonwealth. Its open to the non colonised now with the Mozambique precedent (which annoyed Portugal btw) and a good chunk of us are scandanavian thanks to the vikings.
These players have millions to spend, because the potential profits could be even greater. I find it hard to believe they couldn't afford the very best polling. And they are far from stupid. Why would they waste money on "worthless" polls?
We shall see. But I say: Watch the markets.
And they'd be wasting their money. They won't have John Curtice and his people interviewing people outside polling stations, after they've voted. At best, they'll have online panels saying how they've voted.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Thats like saying well we will change the colours we use on MOTD graphics for the various teams to assist those who are colour bind.
And from an equal ops point of view, so they should. Some matches I just switch off because I can't tell which player is from which team. I also prefer white ball cricket for a similar reason.
No they shouldn't, as that would confuse the vast vast majority who aren't colour blind. That is not reasonable adjustment.
In reality, if they were smart, with digital tv / internet streaming etc, they could offer an alternative overlay that is "easy accesible" for those who are colour blind which you could switch to. And perhaps make it larger for those whose sight isn't great...
Why would it confuse them? I note than in the euros teams are switching between home/away strips for each match and that doesn't seem to have caused any problems. As long as I pay the full licence fee I reckon I'm entitled to an equivalent opportunity to enjoy a match as everyone else. Of course, it was all so much simpler when we only had black and white tellies...!
You are arguing for exactly the reason why the colour coding is required. The teams these days play regularly play in different colours to ones you might expect, so when you turn the telly on and it is England vs somebody, England are just as likely to be in Red or Blue than the traditional white. Then altering the colours for those that are colour blind would just confuse the hell out of people.
As I say, the easiest solution and the one they should and could implement with minimal work is to make an alternative accessible overlay to go along with the subtitles etc etc etc.
They have given Remain yellow, so clearly they don't care.
Blue and yellow are sensible colours for those of us who are colourblind. Red-green-brown are to be avoided as that is the most common colourblind spectrum.
Thats like saying well we will change the colours we use on MOTD graphics for the various teams to assist those who are colour bind.
And from an equal ops point of view, so they should. Some matches I just switch off because I can't tell which player is from which team. I also prefer white ball cricket for a similar reason.
Surely even colour blind people don't have problems differentiating between two teams in cricket? One's batting, one's fielding?!
I'll be honest my Facebook is getting quite apoplectic about the prospect of Brexit.
Mine too.
To be fair when you have a former education secretary saying "don't listen to experts" I see why people are getting angry.
Yes, but there are a few clever tricks there. Firstly, there are some pretty serious people on the Leave side who are economists, businessmen, lawyers and captains (or ex) of industry.
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
Those economists are pretty serious dudes. Disagree with them, use your own inputs, provide, a la Minford, different models. But dismiss them?
Hmm.
Of course you are right, it is all political. That is the whole point of the referendum. Just that I don't think that those institutes have compromised their professional integrity for the sake of politics.
I have to say Topping that if every economist in the world came out and said we would be better off leaving (although it would make me happy on one level) I still wouldn't believe a word they said. Economics as practiced at this level of large scale national and international predictions appears to me to be one of the biggest con jobs around.
There is an old joke about my discipline (Geology) being just alcohol and guessing. Economics just seems to me to be guessing without the alcohol (and that is not a better thing)
It is simply codifying a bunch of common sense assumptions together with some complex maths. You might be amazed at the level of maths needed these days to be a halfway decent economist.
But I know you are being a cheeky monkey and I like that comment about geology.
I'm going to be really devastated when Leave lose. Deeply depressed.
Well that's democracy. LEAVE have given it a good go and appears to be in with a chance, which is more than I ever expected given everything the Establishment has unleashed on it.
These players have millions to spend, because the potential profits could be even greater. I find it hard to believe they couldn't afford the very best polling. And they are far from stupid. Why would they waste money on "worthless" polls?
We shall see. But I say: Watch the markets.
I was asked by one of the smartest hedge fund managers in London (who's also the largest non-management CrowdScores investor) for introductions to polling industry people (via OGH) to organise a Brexit exit poll.
The polling company (to remain nameless) said basically:
Our exit poll at the General Election is based on having a large number of polling stations we have historic data for. By looking at that, we can calculate swings and subswings.
For the Euro referendum, that's simply not possible.
We have turned down 500k+ to organise an exit poll, but it could be little better than a guess.
Swedish MEP praying for a domino effect if Britain Leaves...
OK then, we may start EU-II...
British Values, British Law. Who's in?
They could always join the Commonwealth. Its open to the non colonised now with the Mozambique precedent (which annoyed Portugal btw) and a good chunk of us are scandanavian thanks to the vikings.
The problem with the European Union is we weren't there at the start. We tried joining in the belief that we could change it. That didn't work. But every instinct suggests we should play an active role in continental politics. So what is the solution?
Destroy the European Union from within and then rebuild some kind of new European Association with the UK at the heart of devising it.
We get the Nordics. France and Germany get the PIIGS.
Comments
Second, you don't win economics with a tally. OECD, NIESR and HM treasury (for instance) are all using the same economic model (despite each claiming to be independent) and they are just inputting different baseline data.
Meanwhile, the IMF and NIESR aren't even showing a recession for EEA and the long-term models have small rounding errors for economic performance in/out by 2030.
So much of this is political rather than economic.
The older voters are the demographic that turns out and for them, Leave is the status quo
Forbids use of Paraphyletics/Polyphyletics as a means of warfare.
"Yes! I've been trying for three hours to convince a drunken cornishman taking a trip along the Sankosh river about the importance of the by-election in upper piddleton - there was a swing of 3.2% from Con to Lab - and they just won't have it!"
Hmm.
Of course you are right, it is all political. That is the whole point of the referendum. Just that I don't think that those institutes have compromised their professional integrity for the sake of politics.
It's anything but the status quo choice.
Well we can guarantee in 10 years time some will - and there will be more than 1 or 2 examples.
Strikes, 3-day weeks, union power, IMF, losing to Iceland in the "cod war", casual racism on telly, etc. etc.
None of that in this case.
They calculate that taps into a visceral frustration with the establishment that harvests more votes.
"Who believes the predictions from the IMF, OECD etc"
NO-ONE.
Stunned Derbyshire silence.
And it was Thatcher that sorted the rest in the teeth of EU opposition from Delors et al
OK then, we may start EU-II...
British Values, British Law. Who's in?
Looked like they were sucking up to the potential new government in Leave, having first rolled over for Cameron/Osborne.
In reality, if they were smart, with digital tv / internet streaming etc, they could offer an alternative overlay that is "easy accesible" for those who are colour blind which you could switch to. And perhaps make it larger for those whose sight isn't great...
But if you are minded to believe if we vote leave on Friday we'll go back to the 1970s, this is the sort of entertainment we can look forward to at the weekend:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ig4Es436IY
'I have voted by post and voted Remain. I expect Leave to win. I shall, with my assets abroad and a well protected pension, watch with amusement as this country goes down the tube. Hopefully the young will be able to get out.....'
Hopefully they can get out before the swarm of locusts.
They would make multiple times that investment if they got it right.
I'll get my coat.
The problem with the European Union is we weren't there at the start. We tried joining in the belief that we could change it. That didn't work. But every instinct suggests we should play an active role in continental politics. So what is the solution?
Destroy the European Union from within and then rebuild some kind of new European Association with the UK at the heart of devising it.
Nice to see my old Uni on the news - just a pity it was the backdrop to Cameron's waffling.
Then of course there's the wolves. Vikings. Zeppelin attacks from Russia.
There is an old joke about my discipline (Geology) being just alcohol and guessing. Economics just seems to me to be guessing without the alcohol (and that is not a better thing)
The polling company (to remain nameless) said basically:
Our exit poll at the General Election is based on having a large number of polling stations we have historic data for. By looking at that, we can calculate swings and subswings.
For the Euro referendum, that's simply not possible.
We have turned down 500k+ to organise an exit poll, but it could be little better than a guess.
As I say, the easiest solution and the one they should and could implement with minimal work is to make an alternative accessible overlay to go along with the subtitles etc etc etc.
But I know you are being a cheeky monkey and I like that comment about geology.
What's not to like?