politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for Farage in the Ipsos satisfaction ratings on the d

TheScreamingEagles said:

Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

Do you have your jumper on?

Man just cycled past with placards on front and back saying 'don't know, vote Leave' and someone then walked past with a 'Stronger In' T-shirt on

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:

Charles said:

Do you think they were actually flying over London vs buzzing the memorial?

Reports they have flown directly overheard multiple times.

Coincidence perhaps

Like I said, do you actually for one second think they thought it would be a good idea to fly over the memorial?

Do you think it is a good idea to have the memorial one day before the referendum?

Probably not, but I can see why they did given it would be her birthday (and coincidentally the birthday of the oap who tried to stop the attacker).

If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

- Osborne to Foreign Sec
- Theresa to Chancellor
- Hammond to Home Office
- Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
- Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
- Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel, Whittingdale to remain in place

- Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

- Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

- Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

people in the uk are generally polite and tell you what you want to hear

RodCrosby said:

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.

Traditionally one of the places with the highest turnout in the country. 1992: 86.1%, 1997: 80.0%.

What does the spreadsheet say for Ashby?

NW Leicestershire — my figures: Remain 44% if England 50/50. Chris Hanretty has 45% if UK votes 50/50.

So finding no-one for Remain in a vox-pop is pretty scary for them...

On the other hand professionals/middle-classes will be at work, not milling around the town centre.

Pulpstar said:

If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

Which side get called first?
Leave
Remain
Or the winner in each case??

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.

70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
70% Labour
40% Conservative
1% UKIP

= Remain 53-53%

Putting that into my 2015 data model, with the following additions, is one of the few permutations that I've tried that gives Remain a majority if Remain/Leave was ever to be a big wedge factor in consistuencies too - 332/318

Basically, if Labour Leave vote is more than 30%, they're going to be in trouble unless more of the party's MPs become less enamoured of the EU.

Party Remain Leave

CON 0.4 0.6
LAB 0.7 0.3
LIB DEM 0.85 0.15

APNI 0.95 0.05
BNP 0.5 0.5
DUP 0.15 0.85
GREEN 0.85 0.15
INDPT 0.5 0.5
PC 0.85 0.15
SF 0.95 0.05
SDLP
SNP 0.85 0.15
UUP 0.15 0.85
UKIP 0.01 0.99

https://twitter.com/rvkgrapevine/status/745652268423315458

RepublicanTory said:

Pulpstar said:

If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

Which side get called first?
Leave
Remain
Or the winner in each case??

I think he is talking about the turnout.

Richard_Nabavi said:

If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

- Osborne to Foreign Sec
- Theresa to Chancellor
- Hammond to Home Office
- Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
- Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
- Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel to remain in place

- Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

- Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

- Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.

Convenient opening at NI

@Richard_Nabavi Boris Johnson for Ambassador to Ankara?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

Do you have your jumper on?

Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

That's become the traditional warm up music for a Trump rally.

Portugal... titters

Non EU Iceland to win the whole damn thing

TCPoliticalBetting said:

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

thank god this is over soon...

stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
.@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
@stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits

I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.

It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.

A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??

Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.

Her husband has an er "interesting" recent past. All for charity of course.

People can read about the allegations about Brendan Cox through a search if they wish. I choose not to post a link.

but you posted about it earlier and how to find more...

As things stand, England v Iceland. Who want's to wager we'll be out?

RoyalBlue said:

MikeL said:

Britain Elects:
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 34% (-1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 19% (-)
LDEM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

Leave wins in those:
100% UKIP = 19%
60% Tories = 20%
40% Labour = 12%
33% Lib Dems = 2%
25% Greens = 1%

54% Leave.

Reduce UKIP to 90% (nothing is ever 100%), LibDems to 25%, Labour to 35%, and deduct 1.5% for Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and the ex-pats, and we're back to break even....

McLaren said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

EU referendum poll:
Remain: 44% (-)
Leave: 45% (+1)
(via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

Remain win on that poll.

Agreed, but FWIW - if you look at the 10/10 certain to votes (on an implied 77% turnout): 47.53% Remain vs 52.47% Leave, with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast over London after work tomorrow. It could come down to Gibraltar...! ;-o

Never leave out DKs!

On 10/10 it's
Remain: 45.5%
Leave: 49.1%
DK: 4.5%

How many 10/10 DKs are going to go into the polling booth and put a cross next to Leave/MASSIVE CHANGE.

I presume that means the Won't Say are shy Leave which means it's a dead heat!

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

Can both sides please cut out the moral grandstanding over Jo Cox please?

We've all got a heavy 36 hours coming up. Please don't make it any harder than it has to be.

It's made me feel quite ill.

Get a grip.

I mean the naked electioneering from Kinnock.

Ah.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

Do you have your jumper on?

Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

I shall dress in my luminescent scarlet dragon suit with daffodil face hat, as I do every day of course. I find it invaluable in clearing a path through traffic on the M4 as everyone unaccountably gives me a wide berth.

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.

70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
70% Labour
40% Conservative
1% UKIP

= Remain 53-53%

The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?

Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.

What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.

I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...

Also relative numbers, Mr. B2. At least I would have thought so. How many older people are there compare to the AB1s?

Furthermore, what percentage of each group will vote against the grain as it were? How many of those richer in years, who supposedly are for leave, will vote for remain? Visa versa for the AB1s.

I will say that this sort of identity, pigeon-holing sort politics leaves me cold. Whilst some may use it to make themselves seem clever, most of the time it only makes any sense, if at all, after the event. The best example of this was on here before the last general election, we had lots and lots of analysis of how different segments of society were going to break and people totaling up numbers and extravagant calculations explaining how the results of the polls were explainable. Culminating in one prominent poster on this site stating categorically it was impossible, not unlikely but downright impossible, for the Conservatives to get an overall majority because unless they were 10 point something ahead in the polls.

So all this pigeon-holing may be an indicator but I really can't get too excited about it.

IanB2 said:

RoyalBlue said:

MikeL said:

Britain Elects:
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 34% (-1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 19% (-)
LDEM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

Leave wins in those:
100% UKIP = 19%
60% Tories = 20%
40% Labour = 12%
33% Lib Dems = 2%
25% Greens = 1%

54% Leave.

Reduce UKIP to 90% (nothing is ever 100%), LibDems to 25%, Labour to 35%, and deduct 1.5% for Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and the ex-pats, and we're back to break even....

1.5% for NI, ex pats and Gib is way too much.

Will people stop trotting out SNP 85% Remain and the like. It's 65/35 at the very, very most and I think it'l be lower than that on the day.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

Do you have your jumper on?

Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

I presume that us to indicate that, like Beethoven, you are a massive fan of the French.

Does anyone know why the odds for Leave are shortening? Is there a poll due?

TheScreamingEagles said:

R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano

Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.

On a side note, canvassing after eating a huge meal is quite unpleasant.

Starfall said:

The one talent Osborne excels at is rubbing people up the wrong way, even those on his side. He would be disastrous as foreign secretary, damaging our relations all over the globe. It could only be done for pure 'jobs for my mates' reasons.

I'm not sure you need to be a salesman to be an effective foreign secretary. Someone like Kissinger wouldn't be thought of as the nicest guy but he's one of the greatest Western diplomats. Osborne has guile and a sense of humour so he might do a good job.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

RepublicanTory said:

Pulpstar said:

If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

Which side get called first?
Leave
Remain
Or the winner in each case??

I think he is talking about the turnout.

LOL-Leave with one hundred thousand .... would be nice though!!

However my question still stands - in GE IIRC it is by alphabetical order??

Pulpstar said:

Alistair said:

Will people stop trotting out SNP 85% Remain and the like. It's 65/35 at the very, very most and I think it'l be lower than that on the day.

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ James Kelly seems to want "leave" to win judging by his blog...

Seems very one sided, only talking about the Leave leads....

Richard_Nabavi said:

If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

- Osborne to Foreign Sec
- Theresa to Chancellor
- Hammond to Home Office
- Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
- Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
- Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel, Whittingdale to remain in place

- Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

- Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

- Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.

Surely in the event of a Remain win, in order to assure Leavers we'll be as skeptic as possible within the EU, a Leaver needs to be Foreign Secretary?

I'm not convinced Osborne will retain a Cabinet place - I think he went so hard last week so that he could be the sacrifice.

HurstLlama said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.

70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
70% Labour
40% Conservative
1% UKIP

= Remain 53-53%

The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?

Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.

What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.

I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...

Also relative numbers, Mr. B2. At least I would have thought so. How many older people are there compare to the AB1s?

Furthermore, what percentage of each group will vote against the grain as it were? How many of those richer in years, who supposedly are for leave, will vote for remain? Visa versa for the AB1s.

I will say that this sort of identity, pigeon-holing sort politics leaves me cold. Whilst some may use it to make themselves seem clever, most of the time it only makes any sense, if at all, after the event. The best example of this was on here before the last general election, we had lots and lots of analysis of how different segments of society were going to break and people totaling up numbers and extravagant calculations explaining how the results of the polls were explainable. Culminating in one prominent poster on this site stating categorically it was impossible, not unlikely but downright impossible, for the Conservatives to get an overall majority because unless they were 10 point something ahead in the polls.

So all this pigeon-holing may be an indicator but I really can't get too excited about it.

Some fair points - but the key 'mistake' in 2015 GE was that people didn't recognise how vulnerable the LibDems were in their Tory marginals under FPTP, once they lost tactical support from normally Labour voters. Without those 'unexpected' gains from the LibDems people were correct in assuming that the Tories could not get a majority.

In this referendum every vote counts, and therefore the sort of analysis you decry is probably a lot more useful...

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano

Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.

I thought their nickname now was Sevco

Austria have missed a penalty against Iceland.

Thank goodness for the footie to reunite the nation afterwards...

Against the big teams and pro the underdog

Supporting the home teams until their inevitable early exits (perhaps excl Wales)

Calling for Roy to be fired and replaced by Mark Reckless

PlatoSaid said:

This Junker business has managed to confuse things in a most helpful way for Leave.

I've heard reports saying it's all Cameron is getting whether we're in or out. Others saying to only applies if we Leave.

Whatever the case - it's muddied the waters

What Junker business?

HurstLlama said:

FF43 said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.

70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
70% Labour
40% Conservative
1% UKIP

= Remain 53-53%

The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?

Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.

What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.

I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...

Also relative numbers, Mr. B2. At least I would have thought so. How many older people are there compare to the AB1s?

Furthermore, what percentage of each group will vote against the grain as it were? How many of those richer in years, who supposedly are for leave, will vote for remain? Visa versa for the AB1s.

I will say that this sort of identity, pigeon-holing sort politics leaves me cold. Whilst some may use it to make themselves seem clever, most of the time it only makes any sense, if at all, after the event. The best example of this was on here before the last general election, we had lots and lots of analysis of how different segments of society were going to break and people totaling up numbers and extravagant calculations explaining how the results of the polls were explainable. Culminating in one prominent poster on this site stating categorically it was impossible, not unlikely but downright impossible, for the Conservatives to get an overall majority because unless they were 10 point something ahead in the polls.

So all this pigeon-holing may be an indicator but I really can't get too excited about it.

Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.

YouGov write:

Dear Tissue,

You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

Interesting.

I have just had an email from yougov to tell me they will be polling me tomorrow after I have voted to find out how I voted. Or if I decide not to vote to let them know that. They will send me the link in the morning and I am to fill out the poll after I have voted.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MP_SE said:

Does anyone know why the odds for Leave are shortening? Is there a poll due?

ComRes and YouGov out at 10pm

TNS imminent -maybe 6pm according to Forex

Tissue_Price said:

YouGov write:

Dear Tissue,

You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

Snap.

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm assuming that Portugal will snatch an equaliser, meaning that I'll be in Hungary for an England v Hungary last 16 match.

That will be fun.

We'll probably lose - Hungary are great on the counter-attack.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Tissue_Price said:

YouGov write:

Dear Tissue,

You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

Snap.

I got the Populus one.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano

Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.

I thought their nickname now was Sevco

Huns is old school, The Sevs, Newco & Zombies are more recent. Some of them go ballistic if you dare to put the definite article 'The' in front of 'Rangers'.
Safe to say a lot of them are on a hair trigger whatever you say them.

OK if comres show a 2% lead for leave on 10/10 (excluding dont knows)
turnout I'm gonna put a grand on it.







Maybe.

kle4 said:

Does 60% Tories seem low to anyone else? I know the Tory voters will be less leave than the membership, but given the membership seems like 80%, I'd assumed more than 60% for the voters.

I don't think the membership is anything like 80% Remain. Certainly in our (rural shire) area it seems to be quite evenly balanced. I'd expect that to be the case generally, especially once you factor in the London areas.