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Alistair said:

I still have a Yes poster up in my window. Also I will be a whole £3.52 richer regardless of the result on Friday due to my astute high value trading.

How much per hour does you GBP 3.52 work out at? Isn't there a minimum wage?

As if anybody believes there will be further renegotiations / concessions if we stay. REMAIN = more EU integration.

If Cameron was going to get the EU to budge at all, he would have either got it during making "the deal" or with the polls so close they would have manage to get some sort of vow. The fact he can't even roll out a well the EU have agree to look again at x, y and z kinda of BS, shows there is no chance of any change to the course of direction.

Out is Out and Remain is full stream ahead. A vote for genuine status quo or even better a bit of reverse of powers would have won his hands down.

Richard_Nabavi said:

tyson said:

@Richard Nabavi
Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.

Thanks. I'd heard of Morrissey although not the Smiths. I take it that I needn't trouble myself to listen to his music, let alone his political views?

Richard, a summary: Morrissey is one of the greatest songwriters of the last 100 years. I personally love the Smiths (who only existed for four years – 1983 to 1987 – without really achieving major commercial success, but who subsequently sold more albums than anyone else for about ten years or so, and are still arguably the second most influential British band after the Beatles). He does, however, confuse the ability to turn a neat phrase – at which he is unquestionably very, very good – with the ability to think through an argument – at which he is pretty poor.
He is a fascinating character. By most accounts, including his own, he is not exactly comfortable with other people; yet he is one of those personalities who people will latch onto and follow.
His autobiography is also very interesting, both as a life history and a study in bitterness: he seems to bear a grudge against almost everyone, and devotes over 100 pages to the court case in the 90s over how the royalties from the Smiths should be divided.
You should never fear finding yourself on the opposite side of an argument from Morrissey; he seems almost to go out of his way to disagree with people.

kjohnw said:

So what music will we be playing on Friday, the Great Escape or Ode to Joy?

I'm in with the In Crowd.

Recidivist said:

kjohnw said:

So what music will we be playing on Friday, the Great Escape or Ode to Joy?

I'm in with the In Crowd.

Safe European Home

Hello, all - has anyone spotted the run on LEAVE on Betfair...? Odds haven't moved (4.1) as so much staked at current position, but up until a few moments ago, c.£19k bet on Brexit in the last 30-odd minutes...Opinium leak before 4:30pm, or wishful thinking on my part...?!

Or if we vote out, the Hard Times Of England https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBjkjb8vaMg

Wanderer said:

Any sightings of Trump? Aren't we expecting a contribution from him?

he is coming to the uk on the 24th is he not?

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

taffys said:

Juncker rubbishing Dave's matey 'I'll sort the EU' gambit in the Sun yesterday.

No more negotiation. No more reform.

You need to add in 'if we leave' - he is not talking about a post remain position

If they won't budge when one of their biggest members is on the brink of leaving, they won't budge ever! Although I suspect it is all talk before the vote.

At this stage he has no choice to say out is out. Whether we leave or remain the EU is going to change, the genie is out of the bottle. Leavers here who say that's it if we vote remain cannot afford to do anything else as it would weaken their case. If you follow this forum leave are home and dry, and they may well be, but it does seem that leave are taking to leave and convincing themselves

Richard_Nabavi said:

tyson said:

@Richard Nabavi
Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.

Thanks. I'd heard of Morrissey although not the Smiths. I take it that I needn't trouble myself to listen to his music, let alone his political views?

Modern culture - Morrissey, John Barnes ????

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/06/22/ReferendumMajorCameron-large_trans++eo_i_u9APj8RuoebjoAHt0k9u7HhRJvuo-ZLenGRumA.jpg

Dave&Harriet hear John's views..

“The often unspoken fear of many people – we should address it honestly and clearly and examine it--is that Europe might develop into a super-state, an overarching Government with no national veto, no control over our own borders, prescriptive decisions, a single currency imposed and the nation state retreating to a wholly subordinate role.

“That fear exists out there... and we should recognise the fact that it exists... I for one would find such a Europe wholly unacceptable for this country. I do not believe that it is remotely likely, but, if that were to be the future, it would not be a future that would be suitable for this country.”

[Hansard Official Report, 1 March 1995; Vol. 255, c. 1062.]

Oops..

Just one awkward aspect to this idea of "freedom of movement lite" coupled with access to the single market: this would need to be negotiated with the rest of the EU, and there isn't anything other than wishful thinking to think that they would go for it as a deal.

shiney2 said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/news/2016/06/22/ReferendumMajorCameron-large_trans++eo_i_u9APj8RuoebjoAHt0k9u7HhRJvuo-ZLenGRumA.jpg

Dave&Harriet hear John's views..

“The often unspoken fear of many people – we should address it honestly and clearly and examine it--is that Europe might develop into a super-state, an overarching Government with no national veto, no control over our own borders, prescriptive decisions, a single currency imposed and the nation state retreating to a wholly subordinate role.

“That fear exists out there... and we should recognise the fact that it exists... I for one would find such a Europe wholly unacceptable for this country. I do not believe that it is remotely likely, but, if that were to be the future, it would not be a future that would be suitable for this country.”

[Hansard Official Report, 1 March 1995; Vol. 255, c. 1062.]

Oops..

Well that's just it, isn't it. If you think the EU is in that place, or heading inexorably towards it, you will back Leave. If not you will likely back Remain.

Jonathan said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/745610923411406849

Comres is the only pollster predicting a higher than GE turnout. Surely if this is the election where young voters are going to participate then we should be expecting a higher than average turnout as I can't see why any of the groups that typically vote at a GE are suddenly going to have a slump in turnout.

You also have to think about the electors in safe seats (particularly Labour ones) who don't usually bother to vote because it won't affect the result. Will be see a higher turnout in those seats, and thus bumping up turnout even further?

kjohnw said:

So what music will we be playing on Friday, the Great Escape or Ode to Joy?

Back in the EUSSR ?

AlastairMeeks said:

For once a newspaper article almost exactly expresses my line of thought:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/a-vote-to-remain-is-a-ballot-against-gove-and-johnsons-repulsive-politics-a7094971.html

My thoughts too. Worth reading for all Remainers. Leavers won't see it.

Cookie said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

tyson said:

@Richard Nabavi
Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.

Thanks. I'd heard of Morrissey although not the Smiths. I take it that I needn't trouble myself to listen to his music, let alone his political views?

Richard, a summary: Morrissey is one of the greatest songwriters of the last 100 years. I personally love the Smiths (who only existed for four years – 1983 to 1987 – without really achieving major commercial success, but who subsequently sold more albums than anyone else for about ten years or so, and are still arguably the second most influential British band after the Beatles). He does, however, confuse the ability to turn a neat phrase – at which he is unquestionably very, very good – with the ability to think through an argument – at which he is pretty poor.
He is a fascinating character. By most accounts, including his own, he is not exactly comfortable with other people; yet he is one of those personalities who people will latch onto and follow.
His autobiography is also very interesting, both as a life history and a study in bitterness: he seems to bear a grudge against almost everyone, and devotes over 100 pages to the court case in the 90s over how the royalties from the Smiths should be divided.
You should never fear finding yourself on the opposite side of an argument from Morrissey; he seems almost to go out of his way to disagree with people.

You should try getting out more

@brokenwheel If most of the pollsters are right, Sporting Index is a clear sell on turnout at 70.

Actually, I think turnout is going to be around the 70% mark, but it would be remiss of me not to note the betting opportunity for those who agree with the majority of the pollsters.

Blue_rog said:

Just a thought but what happens if the EU comes out with a 'vow' early tomorrow morning? How will that be reported?

It will be by the newspapers, but not by the broadcast media?

Does anyone know how to post pictures?

AndyJS said:

The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/eu_ref_2016_by_name.php

That's my home turf. Very little activity throughout the campaign. Very few posters, very few leaflets. Most of the students have gone home. I'd expect a tight Remain win, thanks to Leamington and Kenilworth. I'd expect Warwick itself to be Leave.

Since Richard N is on the board at the moment I am after some help. (anyone else do feel free to jump in as well)

I know that you and I agree on the basic position that freedom of movement in the EEA and in the EU is the same. I understand there are some differences in terms of access to benefits but otherwise I thought the rules were identical.

Over the last couple of weeks I have seen a series of references to something I had never heard of before - ma specific brake on freedom of movement that can be invoked by EFTA members. I have never heard of this before the last couple of weeks and can find no documentary evidence to support it. (I have tried)

I am assuming this is a different process to the emergency brake which was proposed as part of Cameron's negotiations since that would not apply after we left the EU anyway even if we joined EFTA.

DO you have any idea at all where this has come from?

AlastairMeeks said:

Just one awkward aspect to this idea of "freedom of movement lite" coupled with access to the single market: this would need to be negotiated with the rest of the EU, and there isn't anything other than wishful thinking to think that they would go for it as a deal.

We'd have to negotiate a free trade deal (or move towards one in steps, if they're too worried about contagion to give us that straight away).

I'd imagine both sides would determine their rules for working visas / waivers etc. independently, based on their own self-interest.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Since Richard N is on the board at the moment I am after some help. (anyone else do feel free to jump in as well)

I know that you and I agree on the basic position that freedom of movement in the EEA and in the EU is the same. I understand there are some differences in terms of access to benefits but otherwise I thought the rules were identical.

Over the last couple of weeks I have seen a series of references to something I had never heard of before - ma specific brake on freedom of movement that can be invoked by EFTA members. I have never heard of this before the last couple of weeks and can find no documentary evidence to support it. (I have tried)

I am assuming this is a different process to the emergency brake which was proposed as part of Cameron's negotiations since that would not apply after we left the EU anyway even if we joined EFTA.

DO you have any idea at all where this has come from?

It's Article 112 and 113 of the EEA agreement.

http://www.efta.int/media/documents/legal-texts/eea/the-eea-agreement/Main Text of the Agreement/EEAagreement.pdf

@Tissue_Price I don't see how you can do this in steps. Can you describe to me the intermediate steps you imagine?

Blue_rog said:

Just a thought but what happens if the EU comes out with a 'vow' early tomorrow morning? How will that be reported?

Once the polls are open they can't say anything political on the TV or radio. It'll be "Look at Dave and the lovely Samantha going to the polling station in Witney" etc.

Any "Vow" needs to be today.

There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.

Sandpit said:

Blue_rog said:

Just a thought but what happens if the EU comes out with a 'vow' early tomorrow morning? How will that be reported?

Once the polls are open they can't say anything political on the TV or radio. It'll be "Look at Dave and the lovely Samantha going to the polling station in Witney" etc.

Any "Vow" needs to be today.

We've had it and basically it is 'if you vote out you are out' - Juncker's today

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

SeanT said:

The traditional poll of pollsters

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/this-is-how-britains-polling-bosses-think-the-eu-referendum?utm_term=.bm5R8Jr2dJ#.ndGkWGE1gG


Verdict: narrow REMAIN win - but nobody is remotely sure. Hope that helps.

If it is a narrow Remain win but England vote Leave - uggghhh! England - where the vast bulk of Dave's MPs come from. Messy.....

England Brexit is at 5-2 on Betfair. It is likely as goes England so goes the UK though.

Remain with England Brexit is a narrow band for sure. But this vote is close.

Possibly!

And for something more lighthearted:

"The English Football team won't be voting in the Referendum...

...They can't find the box, let alone put a cross into it"

PlatoSaid said:

SkyNews
Nearly half of David Cameron's closest business advisers decline to sign letter backing UK's EU membership https://t.co/05ihSWkl1z

This is what it looks like when power ebbs away....

FF43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Since Richard N is on the board at the moment I am after some help. (anyone else do feel free to jump in as well)

I know that you and I agree on the basic position that freedom of movement in the EEA and in the EU is the same. I understand there are some differences in terms of access to benefits but otherwise I thought the rules were identical.

Over the last couple of weeks I have seen a series of references to something I had never heard of before - ma specific brake on freedom of movement that can be invoked by EFTA members. I have never heard of this before the last couple of weeks and can find no documentary evidence to support it. (I have tried)

I am assuming this is a different process to the emergency brake which was proposed as part of Cameron's negotiations since that would not apply after we left the EU anyway even if we joined EFTA.

DO you have any idea at all where this has come from?

They are talking about articles 112 and 113 of the EEA agreement which allow safeguards. They think these can be triggered at will and haven't read the rest of the agreement eg article 111 which explains the measures will be put into dispute if they are not agreed by the parties.

Thanks FF. I agree with you.

SouthamObserver said:

AndyJS said:

The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/eu_ref_2016_by_name.php

That's my home turf. Very little activity throughout the campaign. Very few posters, very few leaflets. Most of the students have gone home. I'd expect a tight Remain win, thanks to Leamington and Kenilworth. I'd expect Warwick itself to be Leave.

It does emphasise how much the Remain camp is relying on voters in the big cities to turn out when their best district council area in one of the regions like Warwick is likely to be close. Take the South West for example: where are Remain confident of winning apart from Bristol, Bath and Exeter?

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ta. I never read it in that way. I always assumed it was something to do with a serious event where all sides agreed it was necessary for security or health.

Yes, I think your interpretation is correct.

SPML said:

There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.

I am no expert but as I have said I am the eternal pessimist so am expecting Remain to win. Even though I have been out campaigning and leafletting for weeks it has been in an area which is known to be strongly Leave so I have no handle at all on what the real battlefields are like.

brokenwheel said:

chrisoxon said:

Jonathan said:

https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/745610923411406849

Comres is the only pollster predicting a higher than GE turnout. Surely if this is the election where young voters are going to participate then we should be expecting a higher than average turnout as I can't see why any of the groups that typically vote at a GE are suddenly going to have a slump in turnout.

You also have to think about the electors in safe seats (particularly Labour ones) who don't usually bother to vote because it won't affect the result. Will be see a higher turnout in those seats, and thus bumping up turnout even further?

Are the young going to participate any more than a GE? I can honestly say I've seen zero evidence of that from the conversations I've had.

I agree. This is why I think leave are going to win - remain need the youth vote enmasse in order to get over the line.

AlastairMeeks said:

@Tissue_Price I don't see how you can do this in steps. Can you describe to me the intermediate steps you imagine?

The free trade deal? Via progressively lower tariffs and sectors being made tariff-free, I guess - an ongoing display of good faith. But I'd honestly expect us to be able to negotiate free trade straight up given the size of our market.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

kjohnw said:

So what music will we be playing on Friday, the Great Escape or Ode to Joy?

Back in the EUSSR ?

In the event of a Leave victory I'm working in the lyrics of Wham!'s Freedom into a thread header.

I take it the lyrics to George Michael's Faith will follow the following week...

Pulpstar said:

SouthamObserver said:

AndyJS said:

The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/eu_ref_2016_by_name.php

That's my home turf. Very little activity throughout the campaign. Very few posters, very few leaflets. Most of the students have gone home. I'd expect a tight Remain win, thanks to Leamington and Kenilworth. I'd expect Warwick itself to be Leave.

Remain 57.6%, Leave 42.4% for a 50-50 result nationwide in the Warwick, Leam, Kenilworth area.

Hmmm.

MTimT said:

Alistair said:

I still have a Yes poster up in my window. Also I will be a whole £3.52 richer regardless of the result on Friday due to my astute high value trading.

How much per hour does you GBP 3.52 work out at? Isn't there a minimum wage?

I have left the referendum well alone. I stuck £50 on after that blitz of leave leads and the price was ludicrously long and then cashed out when the price rebounded. About 1 minutes work all in so £200 an hour!

Richard_Nabavi said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ta. I never read it in that way. I always assumed it was something to do with a serious event where all sides agreed it was necessary for security or health.

Yes, I think your interpretation is correct.

I think Iceland did trigger article 112 on freedom of movement along with capital controls following their 2008 meltdown. In that case the restrictions were agreed.

The purpose of the mechanism is to allow you to take quick action in response to emergency situations and justify it afterwards. It's not designed as a convenient opt out to basic principles in the agreement that you would prefer not to have to keep to.

rcs1000 said:

SPML said:

There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.

It could be a huge Leave win.

Or it could be a big Remain win.

Nobody really knows.

My anecdote is that at least 85% of the people I know and work with are for Remain. Where I live (NW3) I see lots of Remain campaigners and posters.

But I know that Hampstead is utterly unrepresentative (not least because it's so full of American investment bankers that there are practically no Brits allowed to vote in the referendum).

Remain par score of 68% for Camden.

Lennon said:

And for something more lighthearted:

"The English Football team won't be voting in the Referendum...

...They can't find the box, let alone put a cross into it"

Is this supposed to be more lighthearted?

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

SPML said:

There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.

It could be a huge Leave win.

Or it could be a big Remain win.

Nobody really knows.

My anecdote is that at least 85% of the people I know and work with are for Remain. Where I live (NW3) I see lots of Remain campaigners and posters.

But I know that Hampstead is utterly unrepresentative (not least because it's so full of American investment bankers that there are practically no Brits allowed to vote in the referendum).

Remain par score of 68% for Camden.

Where are you getting your 'Leave/Remain' par scores from and do you have them for the whole country?

chestnut said:

Frank Field:

"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."

Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?

Forty and fourteen sound very similar when spoken verbally.

Blue_rog said:

rcs1000 said:

Blue_rog said:

Does anyone know how to post pictures?

You need to upload them somewhere (https://postimage.org/), and then you insert an img tag in your text.

Thanks. If I knew more about it I'd try

Hit "quote" to this comment then look at the reply from @rcs1000 above. Copy and paste his link then edit the bit between the " " quotes with your link and replace the words "img tag" with your description. Hope that makes sense.

second test

Tim_B said:

BBC World News have Ros Atkins (?) at a pub in Tunbridge Wells run by a Frenchman, who said if he had a vote he'd vote Leave.

Vive les grenouilles!

What you mean he didn't accidentally on purpose get sent a polling card? Must have been one of the unlucky few.

Anecdote Alert - My 90 year old grandmother, who has been undecided but edging towards REMAIN has made her mind up and she's going for LEAVE!

She say's what made up her mind was all the experts warning about disaster after Brexit were the same experts that said we'd got to join the Euro.

And she thought "Boris was marvelous" last night!