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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for Farage in the Ipsos satisfaction ratings on the day before the big vote
And Corbyn drops to new low with LAB voters
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Fun times.0
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I think Corbyn has come out very well from the EU Referendum campaign, he's clearly quite torn over his final decision and I can sympathise with that.0
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Second like remain.
Darn. Third like DK.0 -
Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
Sheesh
Farage ahead of Dave ? !
I must be turning into a metropolitan type, I wouldnt agree with that.0 -
Horrible ratings for Dave among Tory voters. The rating among members will be even worse.0
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Cameron really has had an awful war. He could have been leading Leave to a 70:30 win. Muppet.
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...
What a weird campaign this has been. Thank God it's nearly over.
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Farage gets the best headline rating, but important to note that he and JC have declined, whereas satisfaction with DC has increased (despite fall amongst Tories!!).0
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Be funny if we vote leave then its England v Wales in the Euro cup final0
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On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
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Been like that for weeks, Mr Brooke, nobody on here likes to acknowledge the fact though.Alanbrooke said:Sheesh
Farage ahead of Dave ? !
I must be turning into a metropolitan type, I wouldnt agree with that.0 -
FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.0
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I thought Nigels speech today was very robust, balanced and made the point which has not been debated as much in this referendum with the focus just being on economy and immigration, that the EU was mis-sold as a trading block but is really a project to create one state called Europe with one flag, one anthem, one army, one president, one currency, one set of laws, one people and little democracy. We have to choose which flag we want over us0
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He gets billed as a rabid dog. Not hard to over perform when the build up is so overblown.MarqueeMark said:
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...
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I keep seeing people say that Sunderland will indicate the vote is really close if it is 52/48 to Leave but what is this based on? Surely Sunderland is going to be much more No biased than the average even despite the car plant?
Interestingly, I think Scotland's result will be known before 2am. It was in the Independence Referendum. Clackmannanshire voted 54% to 46% No, which was very close to the actual result and came in at 1.30am. Clacks is a very good microcosm of Scotland and whatever the vote is there at 1.30am it will be very close to the Scottish result at the end of the count.0 -
The British public have been outrageously lied to on Turkey accession.PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
Looks like Turkey will be Remain's biggest lie then....PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
i thought they weren't joining until the year 3000PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM2
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Just to be safe maybe we should kick out any Turks already here - I can think of one for startersPlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM2 0 -
Labour voters on both sides of the referendum divide not happy with Jezza's half-in position?0
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That would be PERFECT. Although I didn't know UEFA was part of the EU. Thanks for pointing that outPaul_Bedfordshire said:Be funny if we vote leave then its England v Wales in the Euro cup final
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No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.0
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Exactly. The best question Farage never answered is why, if the Europeans are so nasty and unhelpful towards us when we are inside the EU (ignoring our interests, taking our money, outvoting us countless times etc.), they should suddenly turn all friendly and helpful and give us this dream 'all-trade no-conditions' deal, once we have decided to flounce out?felix said:FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.
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Indeed. The people who have been getting so worked up over it are not the people it was aimed at and have only given it a huge amount of publicity.MarqueeMark said:
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...
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Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.0 -
He's been good (his position on the EU is much better than other left wing people shouting about how great and perfect the EU is) but TTIP and privatisation of the railways are issues that he needs to admit his hands will be tied over.Pulpstar said:I think Corbyn has come out very well from the EU Referendum campaign, he's clearly quite torn over his final decision and I can sympathise with that.
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Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
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There are probably very many Remainers who are quite satisfied with Farage.0
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The bit Im worried about in this Scenario is England reaching the final.Anorak said:
That would be PERFECT. Although I didn't know UEFA was part of the EU. Thanks for pointing that outPaul_Bedfordshire said:Be funny if we vote leave then its England v Wales in the Euro cup final
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FPT
@LucyJones
"I don't think it has been long enough. Seriously. It has felt very rushed to me. Of course, we all know all why it has been rushed, which makes it even more frustrating. "
I agree that the whole process of renegotiation plus referendum has been rushed and the debate has been awful as a result. That was Cameron's choice and I am sure he had reasons for doing it so and I wouldn't pretend to understand them.
The result though has been sub-optimal. In fact I think it has been pretty bloody awful for the Conservative Party, political discourse in the UK and for Cameron himself.0 -
If you want to be in the EU, you will want Turkey to be a member as well. Remain has been pretty dishonest about this (and just saving problems up for a later date).PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
Very slight firming up of support for REMAIN, but no real underlying movement this morning.
The odds therefore continue to show REMAIN 1/4 with LEAVE on 3/1.
I imagine that the final polls aren't going to appear until latish this evening.
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The spreadsheet says that 53.6% leave v 46.7% remain is the expected 50:50 result in Sunderland which is a little different.Lowlander said:I keep seeing people say that Sunderland will indicate the vote is really close if it is 52/48 to Leave but what is this based on? Surely Sunderland is going to be much more No biased than the average even despite the car plant?
Interestingly, I think Scotland's result will be known before 2am. It was in the Independence Referendum. Clackmannanshire voted 54% to 46% No, which was very close to the actual result and came in at 1.30am. Clacks is a very good microcosm of Scotland and whatever the vote is there at 1.30am it will be very close to the Scottish result at the end of the count.0 -
It is not Leavers biggest lie there have been several larger .MarqueeMark said:
Looks like Turkey will be Remain's biggest lie then....PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
I find it hard to imagine the people it was aimed at weren't Leavers already. All it will have done is repelled DKsGravitation said:
Indeed. The people who have been getting so worked up over it are not the people it was aimed at and have only given it a huge amount of publicity.MarqueeMark said:
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...0 -
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
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Fair enough. I'd call the German CBI power brokers rather an experts, but point taken.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
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The fieldwork pre-dates last week's events.0
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Because their economy is in enough of a mess already without cutting off their nose (well actually one of their main export markets) to spite their face.IanB2 said:
Exactly. The best question Farage never answered is why, if the Europeans are so nasty and unhelpful towards us when we are inside the EU (ignoring our interests, taking our money, outvoting us countless times etc.), they should suddenly turn all friendly and helpful and give us this dream all-trade no-conditions deal, once we have decided to flounce out?felix said:FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.
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Because its in their best interests? Because they make more money out of us than we make out of them?IanB2 said:
Exactly. The best question Farage never answered is why, if the Europeans are so nasty and unhelpful towards us when we are inside the EU (ignoring our interests, taking our money, outvoting us countless times etc.), they should suddenly turn all friendly and helpful and give us this dream all-trade no-conditions deal, once we have decided to flounce out?felix said:FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.
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I was listening to an Irish podcast on Brexit yesterday. Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
https://soundcloud.com/independentiepodcasts
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No new trade barriers = EFTA = high immigration. Is that what Leave want to endorse...?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
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A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
FPT @ SO
SO, thanks for your and Dr Fox' anecdotes. It is important for the UK as a whole to recognize and reflect on how upsetting this whole campaign has been.
However, I am optimistic that for 95% or more of the population, this rancour will subside almost immediately the vote is done and dusted, and the talk of immigration will revert to normal levels.
At an individual level, I am sure that those already here will find a post-Brexit vote pretty much as welcoming as the one that existed 4 months ago. Hopefully your partner's wife will then be comfortable, and any relocation decisions are based on what is best for the family and the business.
For all the nastiness of this campaign, on both sides, the UK is, in my experience of traveling around the world, about as pragmatic and tolerant a place as exists.0 -
Oh dear. I wonder if we might get a leak today of exactly what's being held back by the EU until after the vote.PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
Possibly. I get the feeling some immigration obsessed Leavers couldn't find a cup of water, even if you dropped them in the Atlantic Ocean.TheWhiteRabbit said:
No new trade barriers = EFTA = high immigration. Is that what Leave want to endorse...?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
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That is why Eurocrats' plans for a vindictive approach to the Article 50 negotiations will be pushed aside once the new reality sets in.El_Dave said:
Because its in their best interests? Because they make more money out of us than we make out of them?IanB2 said:
Exactly. The best question Farage never answered is why, if the Europeans are so nasty and unhelpful towards us when we are inside the EU (ignoring our interests, taking our money, outvoting us countless times etc.), they should suddenly turn all friendly and helpful and give us this dream all-trade no-conditions deal, once we have decided to flounce out?felix said:FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.
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I was listening to an Irish podcast on Brexit yesterday. Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
https://soundcloud.com/independentiepodcasts0 -
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
What a tragic misjudgment Cameron will have made if Leave wins. I've never got the impression he would die in a ditch for the EU. He had the perfect opportunity to walk away from the renegotiations when he was getting feck all and lead the Leave campaign.El_Dave said:
Unless Remain win BIG, I'm expecting Cameron and Osborne to be kicked out ASAP.MaxPB said:Horrible ratings for Dave among Tory voters. The rating among members will be even worse.
But he oversold his deal, insulted our intelligence, then had to go further and further from reality in defending his shabby outcome. It wasn't enough to insult his natural support as "Little Englanders". No - he had to go the point of being ridiculed. I mean - war? Really Prime Minister? He's finished as a credible politician as a result of his campaign, even if he has got a narrow Remain result tomorrow.
And he could have been a national hero - if he'd only listened to Steve Hilton.0 -
It's not in their interests if a favourable deal stirs up unrest elsewhere...El_Dave said:
Because its in their best interests? Because they make more money out of us than we make out of them?IanB2 said:
Exactly. The best question Farage never answered is why, if the Europeans are so nasty and unhelpful towards us when we are inside the EU (ignoring our interests, taking our money, outvoting us countless times etc.), they should suddenly turn all friendly and helpful and give us this dream all-trade no-conditions deal, once we have decided to flounce out?felix said:FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.
-------------------
I was listening to an Irish podcast on Brexit yesterday. Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
https://soundcloud.com/independentiepodcasts
They are a big customer of ours, we are a small(er) customer of theirs....0 -
What was Cameron thinking with that deal? He would have been better off just asking for more money.MarqueeMark said:
What a tragic misjudgment Cameron will have made if Leave wins. I've never got the impression he would die in a ditch for the EU. He had the perfect opportunity to walk away from the renegotiations when he was getting feck all and lead the Leave campaign.El_Dave said:
Unless Remain win BIG, I'm expecting Cameron and Osborne to be kicked out ASAP.MaxPB said:Horrible ratings for Dave among Tory voters. The rating among members will be even worse.
But he oversold his deal, insulted our intelligence, then had to go further and further from reality in defending his shabby outcome. It wasn't enough to insult his natural support as "Little Englanders". No - he had to go the point of being ridiculed. I mean - war? Really Prime Minister? He's finished as a credible politician as a result of his campaign, even if he has got a narrow Remain result tomorrow.
And he could have been a national hero - if he'd only listened to Steve Hilton.0 -
It does tend to support what Leavers have been saying all along about the Germans wanting a deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Reuters also report that the majority of large German companies have concerns.
It seems to me that all the conversations we have read where people have been concerned about being locked out of the European Single Market have most likely been mirrored in Europe with big EU exporters and service providers worrying about being locked out of the UK Single Market.0 -
If we Vote to leave, they will give us huge concessions because "Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums"El_Dave said:Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
Anyone else seeing a minor flaw in this line of thinking?0 -
It was almost certainly aimed at winding up DE leavers so they are feeling angry and will therefore turn up tomorrow.midwinter said:
I find it hard to imagine the people it was aimed at weren't Leavers already. All it will have done is repelled DKsGravitation said:
Indeed. The people who have been getting so worked up over it are not the people it was aimed at and have only given it a huge amount of publicity.MarqueeMark said:
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...
The publicity that Remain outrage gave it was perfect to achieve that end.
When will Remain learn "Do not feed the troll"0 -
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?MaxPB said:
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
Turnout Alert
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.0 -
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.0 -
Devaluation does not mean that the £ in your pocket is worth less . I remember when Conservatives argued against that lie .MaxPB said:
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.0 -
Mine For Nothing
Outcome of the EU referendum will likely be known between 3:30am-4am on Friday 24th June #Brexit https://t.co/FSiTtu8uTp0 -
ROFL. On the scale of wishful thinking it is pretty well out there.Scott_P said:
If we Vote to leave, they will give us huge concessions because "Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums"El_Dave said:Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
Anyone else seeing a minor flaw in this line of thinking?0 -
For those who read German, here's what the boss of the BDI (German equivalent of CBI) was saying yesterday:taffys said:
Fair enough. I'd call the German CBI power brokers rather an experts, but point taken.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Brexit bringt keinerlei Vorteile
Ein Brexit bringt weder für die britische noch für die deutsche Wirtschaft einen Vorteil.
Translation: A brexit is of no benefit whatsoever to either the British or the German economy.
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For "pretty dishonest" read "lying their tits off...."DanSmith said:
If you want to be in the EU, you will want Turkey to be a member as well. Remain has been pretty dishonest about this (and just saving problems up for a later date).PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM20 -
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.HurstLlama said:
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I need hard numbers.0 -
That's we'll be, also note that the other EFTA nations are covered by the financial services passport. Even the Swiss look like they will get away with pulling their emergency brake and the EU will just let them leave it in place "until such time that the European economy has recovered to reduce migration pressures". I think that's where we are headed as well, and it won't be the end of the world. The devaluation will provide a decent short term boost to manufacturing and the economy will recover fairly quickly. No country in the EU will want to start a trade war with a nation that imports £120bn more than they export.TheScreamingEagles said:
Possibly. I get the feeling some immigration obsessed Leavers couldn't find a cup of water, even if you dropped them in the Atlantic Ocean.TheWhiteRabbit said:
No new trade barriers = EFTA = high immigration. Is that what Leave want to endorse...?TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
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For information: there is an interesting data plot concerning voter registration and age on the Telegraph's live blog.
Put simply, the more pensioners there are in an area, the higher registration goes.
Some counting areas barely have 60% registration. These are places with low numbers of pensioners. Those over 80% registration have large numbers of pensioner registrations.0 -
If a mega rich Chinese businessman or Emirati oil tycoon is considering the purchase of a Maybach or a Rolls Royce, how much do you think the price is part of their consideration?MaxPB said:
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
The problem with the "devaluation is great for exports" argument is that it only works if you have price elastic goods. Premium products and technologically innovative products (which is where an advanced economy should be focused) are much less price elastic than, for example, commodities.0 -
Nigel Farage - Most Popular party leader in the UK?
Even I wasn't expecting that, LOL!0 -
Lol - almost at the level of 'fog in the channel Europe cut off'. One helluva reality check on the way for little Britain methinks.chestnut said:
It does tend to support what Leavers have been saying all along about the Germans wanting a deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Reuters also report that the majority of large German companies have concerns.
It seems to me that all the conversations we have read where people have been concerned about being locked out of the European Single Market have most likely been mirrored in Europe with big EU exporters and service providers worrying about being locked out of the UK Single Market.0 -
They've been delaying the Swiss deal till after Brexit. I expect to see Switzerland finalise a no-free-movement deal shortly after the referendum.IanB2 said:
It's not in their interests if a favourable deal stirs up unrest elsewhere...El_Dave said:
Because its in their best interests? Because they make more money out of us than we make out of them?IanB2 said:
Exactly. The best question Farage never answered is why, if the Europeans are so nasty and unhelpful towards us when we are inside the EU (ignoring our interests, taking our money, outvoting us countless times etc.), they should suddenly turn all friendly and helpful and give us this dream all-trade no-conditions deal, once we have decided to flounce out?felix said:FPT. Interesting to see the squirming defensiveness about immigration among some of the more moderate 'leavers' on here - maybe it's slowly dawning on them that their gigantic FU to the rest of the EU countries might not be the best tactic for negotiating Brexit. Unfortunately 'we like you but FO anyway' maybe just won't cut it over the next few months.
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I was listening to an Irish podcast on Brexit yesterday. Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
https://soundcloud.com/independentiepodcasts
They are a big customer of ours, we are a small(er) customer of theirs....0 -
Rubbish. The last Sterling devaluation oversaw the largest growth in manufacturing since the 80s. As always the facts contradict your stupid claims.felix said:
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?MaxPB said:
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
And of course, Germany is not the EU
FFS of course it is. Get over yourself.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
We're listening to people we agree with, to be sure. But they happen to be not campaigning, which probably increases the honesty quotient, and are talking about what they want if Brexit happens. I am sure they are for the most part people who have argued for Remain. But now the campaigning is over, they are looking realistically at how each scenario should play out.
And this is what we on the Brexit side predicted the experts who've argued so vehemently (and occasionally mendaciously) for Bremain would do should Brexit prevail.0 -
They have too much money already in the game, Scott.Scott_P said:
The same people who have cited as a reason for leaving that the EU doesn't do deals?chestnut said:It does tend to support what Leavers have been saying all along about the Germans wanting a deal.
And of course, Germany is not the EU0 -
That poster was not a net vote winner.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
It was almost certainly aimed at winding up DE leavers so they are feeling angry and will therefore turn up tomorrow.midwinter said:
I find it hard to imagine the people it was aimed at weren't Leavers already. All it will have done is repelled DKsGravitation said:
Indeed. The people who have been getting so worked up over it are not the people it was aimed at and have only given it a huge amount of publicity.MarqueeMark said:
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...
The publicity that Remain outrage gave it was perfect to achieve that end.
When will Remain learn "Do not feed the troll"0 -
The question is how dishonest the EU is being in honestly pushing the issue of Turkish membership forwards.MarqueeMark said:
For "pretty dishonest" read "lying their tits off...."DanSmith said:
If you want to be in the EU, you will want Turkey to be a member as well. Remain has been pretty dishonest about this (and just saving problems up for a later date).PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM2
Which is sort of ironic because, if we are being asked to Remain on that basis, we are being asked to do so on the basis of not trusting what they actually say.0 -
Our main competitors are German.Lowlander said:
If a mega rich Chinese businessman or Emirati oil tycoon is considering the purchase of a Maybach or a Rolls Royce, how much do you think the price is part of their consideration?MaxPB said:
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
The problem with the "devaluation is great for exports" argument is that it only works if you have price elastic goods. Premium products and technologically innovative products (which is where an advanced economy should be focused) are much less price elastic than, for example, commodities.0 -
Nope. The Lies on Turkey have all been from the Leave side.MarqueeMark said:
For "pretty dishonest" read "lying their tits off...."DanSmith said:
If you want to be in the EU, you will want Turkey to be a member as well. Remain has been pretty dishonest about this (and just saving problems up for a later date).PlatoSaid said:Guido
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM2
The Remain position on Turkey is quite clear: The EU would, one day, like to welcome Turkey as a member, but, unfortunately, Turkey is not likely to be in a position compatible with membership for a very long time, if ever. Every EU country retains the right to veto Turkey's membership.0 -
Who's Helen Grant?RobC said:I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.0 -
The head of the German CBI merely echoing the head of the German automotive industry.felix said:
Lol - almost at the level of 'fog in the channel Europe cut off'. One helluva reality check on the way for little Britain methinks.chestnut said:
It does tend to support what Leavers have been saying all along about the Germans wanting a deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
Oh we're listening to experts now ?taffys said:No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Reuters also report that the majority of large German companies have concerns.
It seems to me that all the conversations we have read where people have been concerned about being locked out of the European Single Market have most likely been mirrored in Europe with big EU exporters and service providers worrying about being locked out of the UK Single Market.0 -
I see Marine Le Pen has endorsed the Leave campaign.
Happy bedfellows?0 -
Indeed - as a fierce Conservative - I'm pretty ashamed of the protectionism argument which has swept through the Leave section of the party and also amused at any notion that it will somehow make us all richer whilst removing all the EU immigrants.MarkSenior said:
Devaluation does not mean that the £ in your pocket is worth less . I remember when Conservatives argued against that lie .MaxPB said:
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.felix said:
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FOSandpit said:
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.taffys said:On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.0 -
We can all play that game...Scott_P said:I see Marine Le Pen has endorsed the Leave campaign.
Happy bedfellows?
Anjem Choudary backs Remain because EU ‘stops unfair deportations’0 -
After we invoke article 50 the clock starts counting down from 2 years.Scott_P said:
If we Vote to leave, they will give us huge concessions because "Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums"El_Dave said:Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
Anyone else seeing a minor flaw in this line of thinking?
Before that clock stops the EU may well have lost other big member states.
http://fortune.com/2016/06/08/eu-popularity-brexit-pew/
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No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...Sandpit said:
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!Williamz said:Turnout Alert
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.0 -
Presumably this didnt come from ORB?chestnut said:For information: there is an interesting data plot concerning voter registration and age on the Telegraph's live blog.
Put simply, the more pensioners there are in an area, the higher registration goes.
Some counting areas barely have 60% registration. These are places with low numbers of pensioners. Those over 80% registration have large numbers of pensioner registrations.0 -
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.tpfkar said:Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
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