politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would David do?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What would David do?
Far too little consideration has yet gone into what the referendum result will mean for British politics, even though it is now just a few days away. If the polls are right – big if – Leave will win. It’s time to consider what that might mean.
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I think if he loses the referendum he'll resign as Conservative Party leader on Friday, triggering a leadership content, but he'll stay on as Prime Minister until a chosen successor is found.
Since then I have wanted us out, and that has become stronger with each new development of euro-madness, culminating in the currency union. Now it may come to pass. But these are the worst days. It’s the hope that kills you.
Oh and late She's my idol in that regard.
Did you mean fireworks or the trousers worn by beardy elderly libdem remainers in the audience?
This guy can tell them they are all wrong
@tnewtondunn: Aides urge PM to make Michael Gove Deputy PM on Friday if Remain wins #EUref as immediate olive branch to Leavers; https://t.co/BnW0KjNZjI
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
I wonder if Boris knows his best chance is a flip flop flip. To use his credibility as the lead Leaver to actually front the EEA wing of the party's bid for the leadership ?
I strongly believe that for better or worse Brexiters need to be given their heads if they win. I don't trust Boris or Gove not to try to wriggle out of accountability for the consequences of us leaving if not.
Clueless.
I was reading the paper in my dentist this am and saw a Remain advert from Branson.
It just made me more determined to vote Leave.
DYOR.
Thing is: this guy normally always flys England and Union flags. And I leafletted his house thinking he was a dead cert for Leave.
It's like a personal betrayal.
This is a referendum on immigration.
But they don't.
".... I even occasionally find myself wobbling..."
And I was quite worried.
If remain win ditto the other way round.
Surely that is what drives the odds. Not the bookies guess as to what will happen on Thursday night?
I suspect there will be an urgent meeting of heads of government followed by some new concessions. In the meantime the markets will have tanked, key HQs moved overseas and big regrets all round. A new referendum in 14 months time will produce a 70 percent yes vote. That was the Irish experience in 2008/9.
Personally I cannot get past that Remain are relying on young people, and probably need strong labour areas to be overwhelmingly remain, and the latter seems unlikely and the former are not something you can rely on.
Got to be a reasonable bet for the final at least.
In politics, forever is about 10 years. Cameron's time is up, remain or leave. He knows it.
The Tory party -- together with their new supporters Tyson and Jobabob -- must look for the next Middle-of-the-Roader.
Cameron will go but I think Gove, Boris and IDS, the leading Brexiteers, will be smart enough to be magnanimous in victory and allowa sensible timetable for departure that doesn't leave the Tory party divided.
I suspect Cameron will be disappointed but not bitter..I think he'd blame himself rather than others. George Osborne would be the big loser, and given that him abd IDS are said to have the one really testy relationship among the Tory hierarchy, I guess he'd have to leave the cabinet too.
Does sound like he's making a point to someone, possibly a family member or neighbour.
Sack the chancellor.
Awesome.
He simply could not get legislation through so thoroughly has he pissed everyone off.
The working class will indeed break for Brexit but I don't think turnout will be massively up from GE. Once you make a habit of not voting it's hard to get out of.
Youth will turnout for remain at a slightly higher level than GE, cancelling out the working class effect.
Scots turnout strong remain but low turnout.
Oldies will stick with leave but may see a swing back to status quo dampening the leave margin (risk averse lends is going to kick in)
The key group is women, I think women will win it for remain. Risk averse and more likely to focus on details like economic risk, house prices, etc. anecdote alert: My mum is very typical Tory voter - right wing, wants low taxes, voted for thatcher. She's voting remain because she does not either love nor hate the EU and doesn't want to take the risk. My father is the same profile but wants to take the risk regardless for immigration and sovereignty. Women will swing it for remain, 52-48.
Why? Nothing will move in 2016! You clearly have no understanding of how long these things take.
Its a view!
In all honesty, I've not actually seen much of Davidson in reality, only the ecstatic reactions of PB tories - at first glance, she does seem quite naturally talented.
CBeebies made that video didn't they?
Have you never seen a favourite beaten before? bookmakers have never been known to give away money, if any event is a certainty, they would take no bets on it.
You can still back Remain at 2/7 so there is still doubt over the result, my feeling is that some big players have been betting with their hearts instead of their heads and the value lies with Leave.
Look at the polls, the trend has been towards Leave for some time except for a wobble after the murder in Yorkshire (which probably wouldn't have translated into actual votes)
My gut feeling is that the Remain vote is soft, the ludicrous scare stories fool very few people and surely there can't be anyone who is actually a fan of the EU (apart from people who work there)
3/1 Leave is good value and you can hedge it by backing the FTSE to rise on Friday, if Leave win, you collect from the bookies and if you buy actual shares, they'll recover in time anyway, if Remain does win, you collect on the stockmarket next week.
That's what I'm doing, I'm also voting Leave and quite confident of Leave winning.
Oh lord
Install a Chancellor who is full of confidence about Britain's economic future.
Keeping a Chancellor who is basically saying "the UK is doomed" basically means that you do indeed think the UK is doomed.
It would be very messy indeed to have another PM just for 3 months.