politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BMG polls brings good news for both sides
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Not still - she retweeted comments on that piece / scrap of paper over 100 times y'day...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, she's been tweeting away stuff like thistlg86 said:
Mark Reckless, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7438841790924431360 -
Untrue, of course, but I guess that doesn't bother youRoger said:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdV7dakW0AA_7VO.jpg:largekle4 said:
Oh I'm not in education, but that specific event was full of them. Public sector though, all seem for remain who admit it.ThomasNashe said:
I agree that admitting to a group of teachers that you want to leave might be a faux pas. However, if you were a builder or a fisherman, perhaps it would be similarly awkward to admit to favouring remain?kle4 said:
Indeed. I do wonder if in general leave is the more acceptable option, as it's easy to bash the eu than to defend it, but when people discuss the eu with me at work it is apparent they assume I could not possibly be even slightly for leave and how could anyone else.Casino_Royale said:
In my line of work, Remainers are very vocal. Leavers keep quiet.SimonStClare said:Leave voters easier to contact/poll than Remain voters.
Morning all.
Just a thought - Leavers are probably more vocal in their support, whilst Remainers appear somewhat less enthusiastic, or ambivalent at best by comparison. This may give the impression when polled that Remainers are shy or uncommitted ie normal..!
Even a room of people complaining about the impact of eu regulations on a matter were none too subtle In disdain for leave and the 'manifesto' of Gove and co who would be running things. Granted, that was a room of teachers though. Not gove fans.
But yes, I think admitting you are for remain could be tricky I some professions.0 -
Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a dayEstobar said:
Or the mobile one ...edmundintokyo said:
The polls will be right, though. The only question is whether it'll be the phone ones, the online ones or an average of all of them.Sandpit said:LOL at two polls from the same company but different methodology, producing a SEVENTEEN point difference between them on a yes/no question!!
Can we say now that the polling is unreliable, and that by next weekend the discussion will be about how bad the polls were, again?
whistles
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People with mental health problems have ears and eyes just like everyone else. And having mental health problems does not make you mad.John_M said:
Carlotta, you're not as subtle as you think you are. You're here to score points on an Internet forum. Nothing wrong with that. So, to satisfy you, here we are.CarlottaVance said:
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?Estobar said:
Carlotta, nothing I ever say on the EU ref, ever, would persuade you not to disagree. So there's not a lot of point my trying.CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
Based on the information we have now, there's a Venn diagram with two sets. One is 'Extreme right winger with nazi/white supremacist links', the other is 'man with long history of mental illness'. Those two sets may intersect or be disjoint. What was his motivation for slaying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.
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Yes, I agree. I think that the spread of education has had something to do with it - it's commonplace to go to some esoteric event like a U3A course on history and find plenty of people with working-class accents taking an interest, which might not have been common 40 years ago. And the rise of the internet, for all its glories, is slowing face-to-face interaction - it's much easier to chew the cud with you hear than trek out to Dirty Dick's on a wet Friday evening.The speculative research that it's a cause fthe decline in teenage pregnancy ("Why have sex when you could be spending time on Snapchat?") is probably silly, but it's a sign of the times that it works even as a jokey theory.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.0 -
Alas, no. That would require a new treaty, and there's just no appetite for one now. No animus against the UK, it's just that Lisbon has proved to be very painful for the EU powers that be. I don't think they'd get it through several national parliaments.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
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She's coming off as moronic as the idiots whose first comment to ask when an arrest had been made was 'did he have a beard?'Scrapheap_as_was said:
Not still - she retweeted comments on that piece / scrap of paper over 100 times y'day...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, she's been tweeting away stuff like thistlg86 said:
Mark Reckless, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7438841790924431360 -
Implied result of Remain 51%, Leave 49% for the 59 polls covered by Huffpo pollster since 2016-04-26.Theuniondivvie said:
From memory, the average of all polls for the last 4 months of the Indy referendum came very close to 45 Yes 55 No.edmundintokyo said:
The polls will be right, though. The only question is whether it'll be the phone ones, the online ones or an average of all of them.Sandpit said:LOL at two polls from the same company but different methodology, producing a SEVENTEEN point difference between them on a yes/no question!!
Can we say now that the polling is unreliable, and that by next weekend the discussion will be about how bad the polls were, again?
That assumes underlying VI has remained static.0 -
Have you seen the comments under it? 95% think it's either plain stupid or crushingly naive fantasy - and it's not on the ballot either.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
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Brilliantly put. That ought, really, to close out the discussion until we reach the trial.John_M said:
Carlotta, you're not as subtle as you think you are. You're here to score points on an Internet forum. Nothing wrong with that. So, to satisfy you, here we are.CarlottaVance said:
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?Estobar said:
Carlotta, nothing I ever say on the EU ref, ever, would persuade you not to disagree. So there's not a lot of point my trying.CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
Based on the information we have now, there's a Venn diagram with two sets. One is 'Extreme right winger with nazi/white supremacist links', the other is 'man with long history of mental illness'. Those two sets may intersect or be disjoint. What was his motivation for slaying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.0 -
People with nothing better to do are responding LEAVE
People with jobs and lives are going to vote REMAIN but it's easier to find those who say LEAVE
Did we see this story before at any time in the last 13.5 months or so?0 -
Mr. Trawl, welcome to pb.com.
No. Just as there's no option for remaining in and reforming the EU. The only options are integrate more, or leave altogether.0 -
If we were voting for a political party then your point would be much stronger. Then you're voting into power someone who is claiming they will implement their pet policy set, while holding whatever bunch of pleasant or unpleasant values they were trying to transmit in their advertising (or hide).AlastairMeeks said:Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
In a referendum campaign it is possible for two people to support the same thing, for different reasons. I always thought the "don't let Farage speak for you" posters were silly to the point of patronising.
There are disgusting or foolish or lying people campaigning on both sides of this referendum - whichever way I vote shouldn't be seen as an endorsement of any of them, and in a vote that determines this country's long-term future I shouldn't be worried about the short-term politics of who my vote might be misinterpreted as favouring.0 -
Apologies Nick. I didn't see your post to me on the last thread. I was busy on other things.NickPalmer said:
Sorry to pursue you but on the last thread I asked you to give the citation for your belief that I've said free speech is out of date. The reason I bother with pursuing precision in this OCD way is that I'm still vaguely a public figure, and if I leave this sort of thing unanswered, it can get quoted as "He didn't deny that..." When another poster misquoted me from memory he found when he checked that it's not what I said, and apologised gracefully.Cyclefree said:@Roger (FPT)
People will see what they want to see but what will have happened is that a country has taken a democratic decision. It is not reputation which ultimately matters but substance. I think BTW that you have a pretty rosy picture of how Britain is see. Britain has not been known as Perfidious Albion for nothing.
The bigger picture here is not what some editorials in foreign newspapers say. The bigger picture here is democracy.
If the EU - as currently constituted (I am all for reform of the EU but it is not offer and the EU's idea of reform is more centralisation which is "reform" from the Louis XIV playbook) - makes it a choice between it and democracy, then I choose democracy every time.
Those who worry about how they are perceived are the ones missing the bigger picture.
I regret Farage's involvement. He does not represent my Britain. I dislike Marine Le Pen but it does not detract from my view of France as a great civilised nation. Berlusconi was un cafone, as the Italians say. But Italy is a civilised country. Etc.
I favour the usual balance between what should be legal and what I think is good taste. But in general I think the things you can't legally say (e.g. "let's kill all Yorkshiremen") should be pretty tightly defined and anything else should be legal.
We were debating British exceptionalism and you said, from memory, that you thought that other countries saw some aspects of this (its role in WW2, free speech etc) as valid but a bit out of date. You went on to say that other democracies had things better now. I read that as meaning that you felt that these things were a bit out of date
I am happy to accept that you don't accept that free speech is an out of date concept - or at least I bloody hope you don't think that! - and to set the record straight. My apologies. I do not want to attribute views to you that you don't hold.0 -
Well, as someone with long standing mental health problems, I'm bang alongside the idea that it doesn't necessarily make you mad. At this point I don't know. Maybe Farage made him do it. Maybe God told him to. It's up to the legal system to decide.SouthamObserver said:
People with mental health problems have ears and eyes just like everyone else. And having mental health problems does not make you mad.John_M said:
Carlotta, you're not as subtle as you think you are. You're here to score points on an Internet forum. Nothing wrong with that. So, to satisfy you, here we are.CarlottaVance said:
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?Estobar said:CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
Based on the information we have now, there's a Venn diagram with two sets. One is 'Extreme right winger with nazi/white supremacist links', the other is 'man with long history of mental illness'. Those two sets may intersect or be disjoint. What was his motivation for slaying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.0 -
Did he not get the memo about campaigning being suspended?SouthamObserver said:
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I agree.John_M said:
Based on the information we have now, there's a Venn diagram with two sets. One is 'Extreme right winger with nazi/white supremacist links', the other is 'man with long history of mental illness'. Those two sets may intersect or be disjoint. What was his motivation for slaying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.
What I find amusing is the furious peddling that its onlya mental health issue.....I think the defendant has just blown that right out of the water.
Dan Hodges has an excellent collection of Breitbart tweets comparing and contrasting Orlando
Breitbart, Orlando attack, 13 June: “the media are trying to spin that this was a “lone wolf” attack by an unbalanced individual”.
with with Cox
Breitbart, Jo Cox attack, 17 June: “Are we seriously expected to believe this act of violence by a deranged loner represents a statement”.
Its clear those spinning that 'this had nothing to do with the extreme right' were wrong0 -
Regarding the referendum count, does anyone know please when the first results are expected and from which areas?
Is it likely to be Sunderland leading the field again? - Usually a smoother operation than one of their locally made Qashqais! If so, how indicative will Sunderland be of the country as a whole and therefore of the likely overall result?
Are sufficient areas likely to declare in the early hours so as to enable us to know the basic REMAIN/LEAVE outcome by say 3.00 a.m., as was pretty much the case with last year's GE (unless you were Paddy Ashdown or Ed Balls)?0 -
The communities have broken up. People bought their council houses, sold up and moved on; as you say, mass employment manufacturing and heavy industry have virtually disappeared; the trade unions are now emasculated; and technology has done its bit. Funnily enough, many of the strongest communities now are probably immigrant ones. We see it too with Brits abroad in places like Spain.Richard_Tyndall said:
Personally I think that is the result of two distinct developments, one good and one bad.SouthamObserver said:
I think it's probably got a lot better. What I am referring to is the loss of communalism. We are a far more individualistic culture than we were. That's good in some ways, but I also think it's had some real negatives. There's a joy in being part of something bigger that you identify with and feel a part of wholeheartedly. That, for me, was always a central part of working class culture - doing stuff together: football, pubs, the working men's clubs, trade unions, brass bands, educational societies, painting groups, and so on. It's almost entirely gone now.
The good one is technological advance. Obviously in the past getting together with friends necessitated actually going to see them. Entertainment was far more communal but now with the advent of quite incredible electronic connectivity as well as very high quality entertainment systems it is no longer necessary to go to an external mass market provider like a cinema or concert to be entertained.
The second I think is more insidious and a cause for regret. The growth of the state into all our lives in a far more pernicious and encompassing manner means that neighbourhood and community cohesion has collapsed. In the past - and still within my lifetime (I am 50) one would expect a street to look after their own. To know when a neighbour was ill, when a child needed looking after or when there was cause for a celebration or a hug. Most of these roles have now been taken on entirely by the state and so people have largely withdrawn from the role of neighbourhood and street as extended family/support base. Obviously in some rare cases it still exists but mostly people's attitudes seem to be that if someone needs help they should go to social services.
This is not a cry for a return to some mythical past age. In so many ways - life expectancy, health, equality and I believe crime are all much improved on the mid 60s. But there are things we have lost along the way which I think make life both less enjoyable and less communal.
As an addition of course I should have added that the changing nature of employment also has a huge impact with far fewer people working in the immediate locality to where they live in a shared mass employment enterprise.
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Their results from 13th to 16th June were in the same ballpark as BMG, ORB, online, but we'll see.Estobar said:I'm going to smile if Qriously turns out to be the pioneer of more accurate sampling than the old fuddy-duddy methods that served us so well in GE2015. Just looking at their methodology link it's very interesting. They don't use 'an App.' They plug in via 50,000 other Apps replacing In-App Ads with questions. This is worth a quick look: http://www.qriously.com/our-method/
They also quality control the Apps.
Very interesting. Might be bollocks. Might not be.0 -
Nope. Well certainly not if we vote Remain as the Times is apparently advocating.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
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I will happily cast my vote for Leave knowing that is the best chance of The Times getting the outcome it wants.PlatoSaid said:
Have you seen the comments under it? 95% think it's either plain stupid or crushingly naive fantasy - and it's not on the ballot either.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
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A Question about Postal votes:
When does the verification of the postal votes take place?
I know that reporting publicly the results is illegal but IIRC at the GE last year the parties had a good early indication of how things were going??
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BMG only did two polls for GE2015.
The first, for May2015.com, with ONLINE fieldwork 25-27 Apr gave:
Con 35
Lab 32
UKIP 14
LD 11
Green 3
The second, for New Statesman, also ONLINE 3-5 May gave:
Con 34
Lab 34
UKIP 12
LD 10
Green 40 -
LOL. Probably not as he was in a police cell overnight.No_Offence_Alan said:0 -
She really is - swivel-eyed in fact.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's coming off as moronic as the idiots whose first comment to ask when an arrest had been made was 'did he have a beard?'Scrapheap_as_was said:
Not still - she retweeted comments on that piece / scrap of paper over 100 times y'day...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, she's been tweeting away stuff like thistlg86 said:
Mark Reckless, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7438841790924431360 -
No_Offence_Alan said:
Did he not get the memo about campaigning being suspended?SouthamObserver said:ttps://twitter.com/bbcdaniels/status/744096403094409216
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It seems like sour grapes to criticise a newspaper for not spinning a story the way you'd like it to.CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...0 -
Hmmmm. You're forgetting the age issue. Surely Tory voters would be more likely to have time on their hands since they're often pensioners? I never understood that idea. I just think Tories were less likely to respond - mind your own business!EPG said:People with nothing better to do are responding LEAVE
People with jobs and lives are going to vote REMAIN but it's easier to find those who say LEAVE
Did we see this story before at any time in the last 13.5 months or so?0 -
Certainly seems to have little to do other than tweet.Scrapheap_as_was said:
She really is - swivel-eyed in fact.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's coming off as moronic as the idiots whose first comment to ask when an arrest had been made was 'did he have a beard?'Scrapheap_as_was said:
Not still - she retweeted comments on that piece / scrap of paper over 100 times y'day...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, she's been tweeting away stuff like thistlg86 said:
Mark Reckless, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7438841790924431360 -
Yeah, I think it comes more under the definition of interesting concidence rather than anything scientific. Still, we haven't much else to go on!Pulpstar said:
Implied result of Remain 51%, Leave 49% for the 59 polls covered by Huffpo pollster since 2016-04-26.Theuniondivvie said:
From memory, the average of all polls for the last 4 months of the Indy referendum came very close to 45 Yes 55 No.edmundintokyo said:
The polls will be right, though. The only question is whether it'll be the phone ones, the online ones or an average of all of them.Sandpit said:LOL at two polls from the same company but different methodology, producing a SEVENTEEN point difference between them on a yes/no question!!
Can we say now that the polling is unreliable, and that by next weekend the discussion will be about how bad the polls were, again?
That assumes underlying VI has remained static.0 -
Farage, Farage, Farage, the latest bogeyman of REMAIN...... Let us demonise him say REMAIN just as they tried with Boris.AlastairMeeks said:
I regard the "(76 million)" poster which Vote Leave promoted as pretty much as bad as "Breaking Point". Michael Gove is dancing to Nigel Farage's tune.Philip_Thompson said:
Or they're seeing campaigning by those who are part of the official Leave campaign rather than just the ones you cherrypick.AlastairMeeks said:Leavers who don't think that their campaign has been all about opposition to immigration must be scrunching their eyes so tightly that they're seeing stars. At the forefront of this campaign that they're not seeing is a series of posters which don't so much dog whistle as wolf whistle.
That is what you are voting for if you vote Leave. Don't fool yourself otherwise.
Holding Leavers who believe in what Gove and Johnson (or Hoey and Gisella) have been promoting responsible for what Farage is doing makes about as much sense as holding Cameron responsible for Corbyn.
If Leave win, it will be on Nigel Farage's terms.
Your Farage comments might be a mildly interesting personal view from a sample of one. Presumably you came to that linkage of Farage entirely by yourself? It may also be entirely coincidental that last week a young person in our house received a mailshot from REMAIN about the vote asking them not to vote for Farage.... no facts , no policies in its 4 sides, just do not vote for Farage.
We have also seen Cameron make a similar point about Farage a week or so ago. Maybe this is all a coincidence but it is amazing how the new REMAIN strategy has been to link a Vote for LEAVE to support for Farage and you may just have been inadvertently influenced by that as we all could be when swallowing propaganda, lies and spin....
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Mr. Putney, there was a good graph posted here a few days ago indicating approximate % declarations and timings. I think it's 2-3am for the first 15% (only a trickle before that).0
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It depends on the pattern of the calls (time of call, day of call) and how they balanced mobiles and landlines.tlg86 said:BMG's findings on call backs seems to be the opposite of what YouGov were saying about a month a go. I thought they said that Leavers were harder to contact by phone. I really don't have much trust in the polls.
Most contact is a matter of common sense.
People working 9-5 with a commute will not answer their landline during this time. They may take a mobile call.
Pensioners don't use mobiles to the extent that the wider population do. They are more likely to answer landlines during the day.
Young people will be more likely to answer mobiles.
Change the call pattern, and it will change the likelihood of getting pro-Leave or pro-Remain respondents.
The most significant thing is that three calls yields a result that is more akin to the final outcome - which is the same finding that Yougov produced, after Curtice's Natcen BSA research.
People still tell fibs though - overstating how much they have voted, and how much they will vote.
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Her #NeverTrump campaign also runs at a frenetic pace.rottenborough said:
Certainly seems to have little to do other than tweet.Scrapheap_as_was said:
She really is - swivel-eyed in fact.TheScreamingEagles said:
She's coming off as moronic as the idiots whose first comment to ask when an arrest had been made was 'did he have a beard?'Scrapheap_as_was said:
Not still - she retweeted comments on that piece / scrap of paper over 100 times y'day...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope, she's been tweeting away stuff like thistlg86 said:
Mark Reckless, no?TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/7438841790924431360 -
Not so sure.SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.0 -
His statement fits with the kind of information I've suspectcted that the authorities have been cautiously keeping a lid on.0
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Watching Lexit the movie. Apart from some "interesting" production errors I'd have been embarrassed to produce on my Journalism degree, I agree with pretty much everything it says0
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Yes, I don't think the theory that he's an apolitical nutter who kills people at random is going to hold up. It's possible that he sees himself as our Breivik. But in fairness it's important to take the opportunity to stress that people aren't responsible for everything that someone who shares their other views. Christians aren't responsible for Breivik, Muslims aren't responsible for Orlando, Brexit isn't responsible for the Cox murder, big parties aren't responsible for every member's thoughts. There is something in the "creating a climate of legitimacy for extremism" argument which should give us all pause. But what's important is that it's swiftly made clear that a nutter is not representing anyone - not even a little bit.TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:0 -
suspected, rather.0
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And in other news, Tommy Mair has just given his name in court as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' that kind of puts a hole in the whole "no political motive" narrative, no?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/jo-cox-mp-shot-thomas-mair-arrives-at-court-following-murder-cha/0 -
Fair as ever Nick.NickPalmer said:
Yes, I don't think the theory that he's an apolitical nutter who kills people at random is going to hold up. It's possible that he sees himself as our Breivik. But in fairness it's important to take the opportunity to stress that people aren't responsible for everything that someone who shares their other views. Christians aren't responsible for Breivik, Muslims aren't responsible for Orlando, Brexit isn't responsible for the Cox murder, big parties aren't responsible for every member's thoughts. There is something in the "creating a climate of legitimacy for extremism" argument which should give us all pause. But what's important is that it's swiftly made clear that a nutter is not representing anyone - not even a little bit.TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:
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Elec Commission have a guide for the media:peter_from_putney said:Regarding the referendum count, does anyone know please when the first results are expected and from which areas?
Is it likely to be Sunderland leading the field again? - Usually a smoother operation than one of their locally made Qashqais! If so, how indicative will Sunderland be of the country as a whole and therefore of the likely overall result?
Are sufficient areas likely to declare in the early hours so as to enable us to know the basic REMAIN/LEAVE outcome by say 3.00 a.m., as was pretty much the case with last year's GE (unless you were Paddy Ashdown or Ed Balls)?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/206113/Media-briefing-EU-Referendum-count-processes-and-results.pdf0 -
Yes. The alleged swing to Leave on Friday is counter-intuitive and from a smaller sample size of 1000 against the previous 2000 but SeanT might want to take note: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/06/17/exclusive-poll-eu-support-falls-after-jo-cox-murder/86031038/Sean_F said:
Their results from 13th to 16th June were in the same ballpark as BMG, ORB, online, but we'll see.Estobar said:I'm going to smile if Qriously turns out to be the pioneer of more accurate sampling than the old fuddy-duddy methods that served us so well in GE2015. Just looking at their methodology link it's very interesting. They don't use 'an App.' They plug in via 50,000 other Apps replacing In-App Ads with questions. This is worth a quick look: http://www.qriously.com/our-method/
They also quality control the Apps.
Very interesting. Might be bollocks. Might not be.
http://www.qriously.com/blog/jo-cox-murder-influence-outcome-eu-referendum/
The only logic to that which I can see, and I have some anecdotes backing that up, is the one they find, namely that Remainers are more turned off the whole thing because of what has happened than Leavers. If so I would anticipate many of them returning once we get past Monday.0 -
No. It rather supports the "mad as a box of frogs" narrative.Jebediah_Beane1 said:And in other news, Tommy Mair has just given his name in court as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' that kind of puts a hole in the whole "no political motive" narrative, no?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/jo-cox-mp-shot-thomas-mair-arrives-at-court-following-murder-cha/0 -
Similar to my reaction to the VoteLEAVE tv adverts. Wonky presentation that beats the professional stuff in its effectiveness.RochdalePioneers said:Watching Lexit the movie. Apart from some "interesting" production errors I'd have been embarrassed to produce on my Journalism degree, I agree with pretty much everything it says
0 -
If he did it he has sole responsibility for it. But as someone who has a very close family member just coming out of a horrible bout of mental illness, I can't allow it to be equated with madness or being in a vacuum entirely divorced from the world. What makes it so very hard is that you are very conscious you are in the real world and that you have to deal with that, as well as your illness, every single day. Hopefully, one of the legacies of this horrible affair is that mental health issues are taken more seriously.John_M said:
Well, as someone with long standing mental health problems, I'm bang alongside the idea that it doesn't necessarily make you mad. At this point I don't know. Maybe Farage made him do it. Maybe God told him to. It's up to the legal system to decide.SouthamObserver said:
People with mental health problems have ears and eyes just like everyone else. And having mental health problems does not make you mad.John_M said:
Carlotta, you're not as subtle as you think you are. You're here to score points on an Internet forum. Nothing wrong with that. So, to satisfy you, here we are.CarlottaVance said:
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?Estobar said:CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
Based on the information we have now, there'sying poor Jo Cox? Based on his initial response, there's likely to be some intersection between the two.
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Could be mental and behaviourable problems related to the unconventional name his parents chose to christen him with.Jebediah_Beane1 said:And in other news, Tommy Mair has just given his name in court as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' that kind of puts a hole in the whole "no political motive" narrative, no?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/jo-cox-mp-shot-thomas-mair-arrives-at-court-following-murder-cha/0 -
Not at all - earlier I complimented the Daily Mail on its new found interest in mental health care - long may it continue!Sean_F said:
It seems like sour grapes to criticise a newspaper for not spinning a story the way you'd like it to.CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...
Its a stand out when other papers are either covering the personal angle or the political angle.....
I wonder if the Mail on Sunday will lead with the defendant's words tomorrow.....0 -
I wouldn't agree with this.MarqueeMark said:
No. It rather supports the "mad as a box of frogs" narrative.Jebediah_Beane1 said:And in other news, Tommy Mair has just given his name in court as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' that kind of puts a hole in the whole "no political motive" narrative, no?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/jo-cox-mp-shot-thomas-mair-arrives-at-court-following-murder-cha/0 -
Tommy Mair is no more representative of LEAVERs than Omar Mateen is representative of Muslims.0
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If that is the way he has been talking to the police for the last 24 hours I am amazed they haven't charged him with terrorism. It is as much a terrorist attack as anything else we have seen in Britain over the last decade.TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Includes a link to a spreadsheet of estimated timesrottenborough said:
Elec Commission have a guide for the media:peter_from_putney said:Regarding the referendum count, does anyone know please when the first results are expected and from which areas?
Is it likely to be Sunderland leading the field again? - Usually a smoother operation than one of their locally made Qashqais! If so, how indicative will Sunderland be of the country as a whole and therefore of the likely overall result?
Are sufficient areas likely to declare in the early hours so as to enable us to know the basic REMAIN/LEAVE outcome by say 3.00 a.m., as was pretty much the case with last year's GE (unless you were Paddy Ashdown or Ed Balls)?
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0013/206113/Media-briefing-EU-Referendum-count-processes-and-results.pdf0 -
On its own I'd say not - but the Sunday Paper headlines more or less write themselves (unless you're the Mail), don't they?SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.0 -
CNN asking the local vicar if the 'tone of the campaign caused this man to crack'0
-
Poor Louise Mensch.
How could she retweet this tho?
Louise Mensch Retweeted
Mark ThompsIN @MarkReckons · 4m4 minutes ago
http://politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/ …
0 -
Cyclefree
"People will see what they want to see but what will have happened is that a country has taken a democratic decision. It is not reputation which ultimately matters but substance. I think BTW that you have a pretty rosy picture of how Britain is see. Britain has not been known as Perfidious Albion for nothing".
It's surprising how much the reputation of a country does matter. It's a brand like everything else. Germany is a brand. Think what that means in terms of selling cars pharmaceutiicals or technology. 'GERMAN Technology' has a value which the brand GERMANY gives it The UK is a brand. Ask anyone in the fashion industry or the great service industries the cachet it gives you to be working within the UK brand. Surprising but true.
Try selling the very latest technology with 'made in YEMEN' or Pharmaceuticals 'made in The CONGO' or courture fashion 'made in TUNISIA' and you'll see the value of a brand.
'Farage's xenophobic BRITAIN' will do a very valuable brand no good at all.
0 -
My understanding is that the count is by Council Area NOT by constituency so timings will vary significantly based upon the size of the area involved.peter_from_putney said:Regarding the referendum count, does anyone know please when the first results are expected and from which areas?
Is it likely to be Sunderland leading the field again? - Usually a smoother operation than one of their locally made Qashqais! If so, how indicative will Sunderland be of the country as a whole and therefore of the likely overall result?
Are sufficient areas likely to declare in the early hours so as to enable us to know the basic REMAIN/LEAVE outcome by say 3.00 a.m., as was pretty much the case with last year's GE (unless you were Paddy Ashdown or Ed Balls)?
Q-if it is really this close will there be a recount???0 -
You get pensioners - you also get students and marginal workers on low hours. The group you miss this way is workers.FrankBooth said:
Hmmmm. You're forgetting the age issue. Surely Tory voters would be more likely to have time on their hands since they're often pensioners? I never understood that idea. I just think Tories were less likely to respond - mind your own business!EPG said:People with nothing better to do are responding LEAVE
People with jobs and lives are going to vote REMAIN but it's easier to find those who say LEAVE
Did we see this story before at any time in the last 13.5 months or so?0 -
Oh Sean. I'm not cross. Just disappointed.SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.
Of course some people (doubtless mainly on Twitter) will say that this is down to the febrile nature of the referendum campaign. Of course some people are just (as they see it) cut out the middleman and claim that Farage killed Jo Cox (I can see it now 'just as surely as if he'd pulled the trigger himself').
But the sheer extremity of thought nullifies its value in my view. I cannot credit Cameron when he claimed that the EU had kept the peace. I like Donald Tusk, but didn't buy his worry that Brexit would lead to the end of Western Civilisation.
We've had people trying to play 'if you vote Leave, you're really a racist, don't kid yourself' for weeks - even had one this morning from Alastair. I can't buy an even more extreme argument than that.
British people are sensible and phlegmatic. I am sorry for Jo Cox and her family. But her murderers views and motivations are tangential to the referendum itself.
However, no one will think the less of you if you want to vote Remain. It's OK. Remainers are people too.0 -
Oh come off it. You were being facetious and sarcastic. Carlotta, I was tolerating your opinion, though less so your intransigence. What I don't admire is dishonesty.CarlottaVance said:
Not at all - earlier I complimented the Daily Mail on its new found interest in mental health care - long may it continue!Sean_F said:
It seems like sour grapes to criticise a newspaper for not spinning a story the way you'd like it to.CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for about 15 minutes on Wednesday said she realised he was in 'some sort of crisis' and there appeared to be a 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
When other papers are covering a political angle in the death of a politician, I think the word you are looking for is 'evasion' not 'responsible' journalism....but as you say, some people's bias is blinding them to objective truths...0 -
People SAID they had good early indication of how things were going, e.g. Atul Hatwal saying postal votes indicated that things might not be as bad for SLab as polling suggested.RepublicanTory said:A Question about Postal votes:
When does the verification of the postal votes take place?
I know that reporting publicly the results is illegal but IIRC at the GE last year the parties had a good early indication of how things were going??0 -
0
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Looks like Da Fink won the Times debate as it is trotting out the lines from Major's time in Govt when Fink awas an advisor. In Europe and not Run By It, Let's work to reform it...... etc etc file under Delusional Thinking from Useful Idiots inc.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
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Thanks Morris, pretty similar pattern therefore to recent General Elections. Last May in particular there was lots of money to be made if you believed the exit poll announced at 10.00 pm. With a straight two way choice, I would expect that the outcome should be easier to assess more quickly, although doubtless there will be large regional and indeed national variations.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Putney, there was a good graph posted here a few days ago indicating approximate % declarations and timings. I think it's 2-3am for the first 15% (only a trickle before that).
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It's got some great messages - agree re production values, cobbled together with £6k of crowd funding.RochdalePioneers said:Watching Lexit the movie. Apart from some "interesting" production errors I'd have been embarrassed to produce on my Journalism degree, I agree with pretty much everything it says
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Tipping it by 3/4% would take it to about 50/50%.SeanT said:
I'm entirely in control. I think the referendum was on a knife edge, but this will tip it to REMAIN by three or four points. My NoJam prediction was 56/44 REMAIN, that's probably wrong, but I reckon it could be 53/47Estobar said:
Get a grip Sean.SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.
I reckon there are huge numbers of DKs, that are being uncounted. Yes 70% of people have decided, but there are millions who might say they are voting one way or another, but inside they are conflicted and could still be persuaded, so, in effect, they are DKs.
This will influence them. It will give nervous OUTs a reason to vote IN.
BTW I'm still OUT!0 -
So you think the Qrious post-murder poll trend is, what ...?SeanT said:
I'm entirely in control. I think the referendum was on a knife edge, but this will tip it to REMAIN by three or four points. My NoJam prediction was 56/44 REMAIN, that's probably wrong, but I reckon it could be 53/47Estobar said:
Get a grip Sean.SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.
I reckon there are huge numbers of DKs, that are being uncounted. Yes 70% of people have decided, but there are millions who might say they are voting one way or another, but inside they are conflicted and could still be persuaded, so, in effect, they are DKs.
This will influence them. It will give nervous OUTs a reason to vote IN.
BTW I'm still OUT!
Their finding was the opposite: that it has turned Remainers into Don't Knows. Might be rubbish polling of course but it's curious. I do know some people saying they can't now be bothered with it all.0 -
Proof the woman has no standardsScrapheap_as_was said:Poor Louise Mensch.
How could she retweet this tho?
Louise Mensch Retweeted
Mark ThompsIN @MarkReckons · 4m4 minutes ago
http://politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/ …0 -
AgreedTheScreamingEagles said:
Proof the woman has no standardsScrapheap_as_was said:Poor Louise Mensch.
How could she retweet this tho?
Louise Mensch Retweeted
Mark ThompsIN @MarkReckons · 4m4 minutes ago
http://politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The EURef might be more like the AV referendum and not the Indyref http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/17/the-euref-might-be-more-like-the-av-referendum-and-not-the-indyref/ …0 -
Roger said:
Cyclefree
"People will see what they want to see but what will have happened is that a country has taken a democratic decision. It is not reputation which ultimately matters but substance. I think BTW that you have a pretty rosy picture of how Britain is see. Britain has not been known as Perfidious Albion for nothing".
It's surprising how much the reputation of a country does matter. It's a brand like everything else. Germany is a brand. Think what that means in terms of selling cars pharmaceutiicals or technology. 'GERMAN Technology' has a value which the brand GERMANY gives it The UK is a brand. Ask anyone in the fashion industry or the great service industries the cachet it gives you to be working within the UK brand. Surprising but true.
Try selling the very latest technology with 'made in YEMEN' or Pharmaceuticals 'made in The CONGO' or courture fashion 'made in TUNISIA' and you'll see the value of a brand.
'Farage's xenophobic BRITAIN' will do a very valuable brand no good at all.
I bow to your superior knowledge on branding. But branding is not the only value that matters and may not be the most important one. Substance matters. Britain has to be a country which its citizens are comfortable in. And part of that comfort will come from its citizens' exercise of their democratic vote. Democracy matters. Democracy in Britain matters. Britain is not just a product to be sold.
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Hopefully, we can now remove terms such as traitor and quisling from rational political argument. Everyone reads and hears them.0
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This Mair declaration will indeed be dismissed as him being a nut, not representative of a Leave position, so I would not expect a massive effect, and perhaps nothing at all in the polling. But people's claimed allegiances and views do have some impact, if in a more subtle way, in making a connection which may well be unfair in the mind's of the uncertain.
So my guess is there will be no change in polling, we'll continue to see big leave leads, small remain leads, and plenty saying too close to call, and any impact it may have will be unknowable - if Remain squeak a win it may be theorised this event tipped the balance, but that's unprovable.0 -
I've quickly looked through the electoral commission's sheet on times of announcements for EU poll counts.
Interestingly, one or two NW areas are projected to declare quite early, as in around 1:30am. Oldham, Wigan and Salford.
There's a handful of NI and Scottish areas and Wandsworth in London.
In SW, Swindon.
In Wales, Merthyr Tydfil may be early and give us an idea of how the Welsh are voting.0 -
Is he one of the Dorset Freedom for Britains d'ye know?edmundintokyo said:
Could be mental and behaviourable problems related to the unconventional name his parents chose to christen him with.Jebediah_Beane1 said:And in other news, Tommy Mair has just given his name in court as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' that kind of puts a hole in the whole "no political motive" narrative, no?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/jo-cox-mp-shot-thomas-mair-arrives-at-court-following-murder-cha/0 -
Mail on Sunday is very pro REMAIN.CarlottaVance said:
On its own I'd say not - but the Sunday Paper headlines more or less write themselves (unless you're the Mail), don't they?SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.
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That's very goodTheuniondivvie said:
Is he one of the Dorset Freedom for Britains d'ye know?edmundintokyo said:
Could be mental and behaviourable problems related to the unconventional name his parents chose to christen him with.Jebediah_Beane1 said:And in other news, Tommy Mair has just given his name in court as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' that kind of puts a hole in the whole "no political motive" narrative, no?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/jo-cox-mp-shot-thomas-mair-arrives-at-court-following-murder-cha/0 -
We'll know from Sunderland I reckon.rottenborough said:I've quickly looked through the electoral commission's sheet on times of announcements for EU poll counts.
Interestingly, one or two NW areas are projected to declare quite early, as in around 1:30am. Oldham, Wigan and Salford.
There's a handful of NI and Scottish areas and Wandsworth in London.
In SW, Swindon.
In Wales, Merthyr Tydfil may be early and give us an idea of how the Welsh are voting.
Exciting !0 -
Will larger areas have more count staff?RepublicanTory said:
My understanding is that the count is by Council Area NOT by constituency so timings will vary significantly based upon the size of the area involved.peter_from_putney said:Regarding the referendum count, does anyone know please when the first results are expected and from which areas?
Is it likely to be Sunderland leading the field again? - Usually a smoother operation than one of their locally made Qashqais! If so, how indicative will Sunderland be of the country as a whole and therefore of the likely overall result?
Are sufficient areas likely to declare in the early hours so as to enable us to know the basic REMAIN/LEAVE outcome by say 3.00 a.m., as was pretty much the case with last year's GE (unless you were Paddy Ashdown or Ed Balls)?
Q-if it is really this close will there be a recount???0 -
How did you feel about Obama, and the IMF the first time you heard them?SeanT said:
I'm still OUT.John_M said:
Oh Sean. I'm not cross. Just disappointed.SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.
Of course some people (doubtless mainly on Twitter) will say that this is down to the febrile nature of the referendum campaign. Of course some people are just (as they see it) cut out the middleman and claim that Farage killed Jo Cox (I can see it now 'just as surely as if he'd pulled the trigger himself').
But the sheer extremity of thought nullifies its value in my view. I cannot credit Cameron when he claimed that the EU had kept the peace. I like Donald Tusk, but didn't buy his worry that Brexit would lead to the end of Western Civilisation.
We've had people trying to play 'if you vote Leave, you're really a racist, don't kid yourself' for weeks - even had one this morning from Alastair. I can't buy an even more extreme argument than that.
British people are sensible and phlegmatic. I am sorry for Jo Cox and her family. But her murderers views and motivations are tangential to the referendum itself.
However, no one will think the less of you if you want to vote Remain. It's OK. Remainers are people too.
I'm also trying to be objective.
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I'm sorry if my Venn diagram model confused my point. In my head, it worked better. It is possible to have an episodic issue that affect one's judgement.SouthamObserver said:
If he did it he has sole responsibility for it. But as someone who has a very close family member just coming out of a horrible bout of mental illness, I can't allow it to be equated with madness or being in a vacuum entirely divorced from the world. What makes it so very hard is that you are very conscious you are in the real world and that you have to deal with that, as well as your illness, every single day. Hopefully, one of the legacies of this horrible affair is that mental health issues are taken more seriously.John_M said:SouthamObserver said:John_M said:CarlottaVance said:
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?Estobar said:CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
To save constantly using poor Jo Cox as an example, I have, in the past and in a moment of complete lucidity done something that was harmful (to myself I hasten to add). I could have claimed it was due to my condition, but that would have been a lie.
At other times, my condition has compelled me in ways that I couldn't control. Does that make sense? I was trying to portray the difference, but may have done so in too clinical a fashion.
I do hope your relative makes a full recovery.0 -
If that is the way he has been talking to the police for the last 24 hours I'll be amazed if he'll be found fit to plead.Richard_Tyndall said:
If that is the way he has been talking to the police for the last 24 hours I am amazed they haven't charged him with terrorism. It is as much a terrorist attack as anything else we have seen in Britain over the last decade.TheScreamingEagles said:
Poor Louise Mensch.SouthamObserver said:0 -
This has been Britain's more or less serious objective since the 1950's. In reality the EU is the only show in town. A reason maybe for getting out. But out means being on our own.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
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It would be good now if the valuable work done by Peter Hitchens in pointing out the twin commonalities of mental illness manifesting as paranoia and past or current cannabis use in killings from Lee Rigby to Paris to US school mass killers is given the seriousness it deserves.
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Permission to "campaign" on PB.com?
FIVE DAYS TO SAVETHE EU PROJECTDAVE'S CAREER!!0 -
Britain Elects rolling average now has 48/43 Leave.0
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It is the objective we have singularly failed to achieve and in fact have moved further and further from during our time in the EU.FF43 said:
This has been Britain's more or less serious objective since the 1950's. In reality the EU is the only show in town. A reason maybe for getting out. But out means being on our own.trawl said:Apologies if already commented on. Today's Times leader on EU ref; 'best outcome ...... a new alliance of EU sovereign nations dedicated to free trade and reform, led by Britain.' Is that on offer in this week's vote?
If that really is what the Times wants then it is impossible whilst remaining a member of the EU.0 -
Sunderland projected to be 12:30amPulpstar said:
We'll know from Sunderland I reckon.rottenborough said:I've quickly looked through the electoral commission's sheet on times of announcements for EU poll counts.
Interestingly, one or two NW areas are projected to declare quite early, as in around 1:30am. Oldham, Wigan and Salford.
There's a handful of NI and Scottish areas and Wandsworth in London.
In SW, Swindon.
In Wales, Merthyr Tydfil may be early and give us an idea of how the Welsh are voting.
Exciting !
Will we know from Sunderland. I get the impression that NE is heavily out, so if it is a surprise high Remain vote then I guess we will know, but otherwise?0 -
Do you know WHEN the verification process takes place?Theuniondivvie said:
People SAID they had good early indication of how things were going, e.g. Atul Hatwal saying postal votes indicated that things might not be as bad for SLab as polling suggested.RepublicanTory said:A Question about Postal votes:
When does the verification of the postal votes take place?
I know that reporting publicly the results is illegal but IIRC at the GE last year the parties had a good early indication of how things were going??
I have read so many conflicting reports that I dont know who to believe.
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Plenty of people talking about him being charged with "Terrorism", does such an offence even exist ?
The IRA were always charged as common criminals, in fact iirc the hunger strikes were in protest at this policy.
Murder is murder. Nothing more, nothing else. It's what the Lee Rigby killers were convicted of.0 -
Don't forget a Nissan effect. Might make Sunderland more Pro Remain than expected.rottenborough said:
Sunderland projected to be 12:30amPulpstar said:
We'll know from Sunderland I reckon.rottenborough said:I've quickly looked through the electoral commission's sheet on times of announcements for EU poll counts.
Interestingly, one or two NW areas are projected to declare quite early, as in around 1:30am. Oldham, Wigan and Salford.
There's a handful of NI and Scottish areas and Wandsworth in London.
In SW, Swindon.
In Wales, Merthyr Tydfil may be early and give us an idea of how the Welsh are voting.
Exciting !
Will we know from Sunderland. I get the impression that NE is heavily out, so if it is a surprise high Remain vote then I guess we will know, but otherwise?0 -
She's getting there, after some very bleak, dangerous times. It's a story of great bravery and real hope. There is another side and it's wonderful to see. It's my daughter.John_M said:
I'm sorry if my Venn diagram model confused my point. In my head, it worked better. It is possible to have an episodic issue that affect one's judgement.SouthamObserver said:
If he did it he has sole responsibility for itoo deal with that, as well as your illness, every single day. Hopefully, one of the legacies of this horrible affair is that mental health issues are taken more seriously.John_M said:SouthamObserver said:John_M said:CarlottaVance said:
I thought we were discussing media treatment of the death of an MP?Estobar said:CarlottaVance said:
Not on the front page.Estobar said:
You're also totally wrong about the Mail. They do masses on mental health every week.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing in the last 2 months - then its the angle they pursue over the death of an MP......Estobar said:
Actually I don't think that's fair. The Daily Mail have written a lot on mental health in recent years.CarlottaVance said:
The Mail's sudden interest in mental health ..El_Dave said:The Mail have a quote from a 'health counsellor' who saw Mr Mair the day before the murder.
"Thomas Mair said after stumbling into a 'well-being centre' on Wednesday night that he was depressed and had been on medication for a long time.
Mair's psychiatric history is at the heart of the police inquiry into the attack – and officers are also said to be investigating links to far-Right groups.
The counsellor who spoke to him for 'real problem'."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3647461/Loner-suspected-murdering-MP-Jo-Cox-crisis-sought-help-health-counsellor-just-24-hours-attack.html
Why do LEAVERS always link that with BREXIT?
To save constantly using poor Jo Cox as an example, I have, in the past and in a moment of complete lucidity done something that was harmful (to myself I hasten to add). I could have claimed it was due to my condition, but that would have been a lie.
At other times, my condition has compelled me in ways that I couldn't control. Does that make sense? I was trying to portray the difference, but may have done so in too clinical a fashion.
I do hope your relative makes a full recovery.
Very best wishes to you.
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I think Nick Palmer made a fair point, trying to say this nutters actions are linked to Leave, is like trying to link all muslims to ISIS and all Labour to CorbynSeanT said:
I'm still OUT.John_M said:
Oh Sean. I'm not cross. Just disappointed.SeanT said:Telegraph News
Live Jo Cox MP: accused murderer Thomas Mair gives name as 'Death to traitors, freedom for Britain' in court
REMAIN has won. That's it.
Of course some people (doubtless mainly on Twitter) will say that this is down to the febrile nature of the referendum campaign. Of course some people are just (as they see it) cut out the middleman and claim that Farage killed Jo Cox (I can see it now 'just as surely as if he'd pulled the trigger himself').
But the sheer extremity of thought nullifies its value in my view. I cannot credit Cameron when he claimed that the EU had kept the peace. I like Donald Tusk, but didn't buy his worry that Brexit would lead to the end of Western Civilisation.
We've had people trying to play 'if you vote Leave, you're really a racist, don't kid yourself' for weeks - even had one this morning from Alastair. I can't buy an even more extreme argument than that.
British people are sensible and phlegmatic. I am sorry for Jo Cox and her family. But her murderers views and motivations are tangential to the referendum itself.
However, no one will think the less of you if you want to vote Remain. It's OK. Remainers are people too.
I'm also trying to be objective.0 -
"Crime is crime is crime. It is not political." - M. H. Thatcher, 1981.asjohnstone said:Plenty of people talking about him being charged with "Terrorism", does such an offence even exist ?
The IRA were always charged as common criminals, in fact iirc the hunger strikes were in protest at this policy.
Murder is murder. Nothing more, nothing else. It's what the Lee Rigby killers were convicted of.0
