GIN1138 said:

From 2015 result, if the Tories don't stand in Batley and Spen and UKIP does you could actually envisage a UKIP win (Tories were 6,000 votes behind Labour with UKIP 12,000 votesbehind in 2015)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batley_and_Spen_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

Labour far more likely to run up over 60% of the vote imo.

I expect the Lib Dems will pull out too.

Scott_P said:

This has nothing to do with the campaign

Corbyn is her party leader. of course he needs to be there.

Cameron is PM.

@paulwaugh: Speaker Bercow and the local chaplain will also join Corbyn, who is leading the event, and the PM, I'm told

I have said upthread, more than once, I would like to see Cameron and Boris discussing the campaigns, but today is not the day, and Birstall is not the place.

Agreed. This is not about the referendum, remain or leave should not matter. Her leader and the PM and the speaker perfectly well represent the Commons regardless of party or policy. This isn't political, this is tragic and criminal.

marke09 said:

Pulpstar said:

The campaigns should restart Saturday (Much as I dislike both of them), though I fear an indefinite suspension is incoming.

Remain have said they are restarting tomorrow

Can we have a link for this pls - I haven't seen anything.

rottenborough said:

marke09 said:

Pulpstar said:

The campaigns should restart Saturday (Much as I dislike both of them), though I fear an indefinite suspension is incoming.

Remain have said they are restarting tomorrow

Can we have a link for this pls - I haven't seen anything.

Andrew Neil on the Daily Politics

RochdalePioneers said:

Corbyn won't mention the referendum one little bit - and I expect he will have agreement from Cameron to do the same.

Corbyn cannot and will not join any campaign with Cameron over the EU - whilst both advocate Remain it is for different reasons to different ends. However, both of them speaking about public service which entirely transcends party politics, that could be powerful.

I agree but you need to listen to the 'nuance' to determine if there is a message in there. The way our media obsess with a story this is going to headline for days and of course the funeral will be covered worldwide. I believe that the campaign from both sides is going to need to be very sensitive and leave will need to be very careful on immigration

marke09 said:

rottenborough said:

marke09 said:

Pulpstar said:

The campaigns should restart Saturday (Much as I dislike both of them), though I fear an indefinite suspension is incoming.

Remain have said they are restarting tomorrow

Can we have a link for this pls - I haven't seen anything.

Andrew Neil on the Daily Politics

Nothing on their news page or twitter feed. Perhaps we'll see something later.

I am due to be organizing some Remain street work tomorrow, so it would be good to know in advance. Last I heard Labour had suspended campaigning for the weekend.

FrankBooth said:

stodge - I disagree. If someone dies that is sad but we then have a competitive by election. However I don't want to see the parliamentary arithmetic changing because someone has been murdered. Labour comfortably won the seat in the general election last year. I see no injustice in them holding it till the next election. If others want to stand that is up to them but if I was Tory, Lib Dem and if they have any sense Ukip, I would hold off.

Agree completely with this - anyone standing to oppose labour is likely to get roasted

I think, on balance, it would be better if parties contested the Batley and Spen by-election as normal. The referendum campaign - not so sure.

In particular, I don't think the comparison with the IRA and either Ian Gow's murder or the Brighton Bomb are apt.

In those cases, the IRA was a well-established terrorist group; it was well known they were intent on committing those sort of acts if they could; and there's nothing anyone could really say or do at that time to stop that particular madness. The right response was one of defiance, which means business as usual.

Here, there's a feeling (which might turn out to be wrong) that everybody has got too heated and it just might have contributed in some small way so a horrifying act that nobody intended. Politicians have caught a glimpse of themselves in the mirror in the heat of the campaign, and it's fair to say many are shocked and embarrassed as well as terribly sad over the death of a nice person they knew.

This referendum debate has been had. In truth, we've been treading old ground for weeks, and the only thing new has been the ever increasing vehemence and bile. I can't help but feel let's vote on Thursday, and all just respect the outcome - not sure I can stomach more than that.

Sky now following David Cameron's car going to the tribute with Jeremy Corbyn apparently in the next 20 minutes. Sky also expecting the campaigns to be suspended until monday

I've conceded defeat on the EU vote. What happened yesterday was terrible and any efforts by the LEAVE camp to get the campaign back on track are fraught with difficulty given the associations that have been made in the media.

I do think though that Cameron and Corbyn would be well served to speak alongside Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey, to make the point - and to me it is a very important point - that not all the Brexit campaigners are Britain First types.

The last thing we want (and the Tories certainly don't want it) is for Remain to win the vote and for Farage and people further to the extreme than him, calling foul for years.

That will do nothing for a better standard of debate.

PlatoSaid said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

MontyHall said:

I am shown three doors.
Behind one is some one using the murder of Jo Cox to further their political agenda, behind the other two are people saying it was the act of a mentally ill man.
I choose door one, the host opens door three to reveal raging Europhile leftie James O'Brien on LBC hosting a show about the effect that political campaigning, naming no names, had on yesterdays murder. Do I switch?

This "raging Europhile leftie" James O'Brien is judged by the BBC to be an appropriate impartial person to also host Newsnight? Beyond belief. After "hosting a show about the effect that political campaigning, naming no names, had on yesterdays murder" in which he kept saying that it was right to speculate on the motives of the killer because if the killer had been a moslem that fact would have been stated early in the news reports..........

O'Brien is one of the most controversial and polemic LBC presenters. He's the Lefty version of David Starkey. I thought the Newsnight gig was a joke - its legit?

He has presented on many occasions.

Pulpstar said:

@Rottenborough Vanilla message for you (Click your name to see it)

Thx. I've replied.

tpfkar said:

On-topic, we had 78% return on all postal votes in our area by Wednesday, so I would be buying turnout.

FYI Last year at the GE 86.0% of people who were sent a postal ballot pack voted. I would not therefore read 78% as being on the high side. You would need to compare to local GE.

nico777 said:

Whilst its laudable to say the tragic death of Jo Cox shouldn't effect the EU debate I think this is sticking ones head in the sand. Its impossible given the background referendum to think that this won't play some part, I would suspect both campaigns might tone down the rhetoric but this does leave Vote Leave in a difficult position as to how it will deal with immigration in the coming days. Its simply unavoidable that some voters might connect the concentration on immigration as playing to a minority of people who are xenophobic and racist. Whether this is based on reality is irrelevant, some comments in here seem to be viewing voters as robots without emotions and expecting people to be completely rational.

I think the connection between the E.U and immigration has already been made,they need to say what will happen if we leave. the process ad nauseum.

Fenster said:

I've conceded defeat on the EU vote. What happened yesterday was terrible and any efforts by the LEAVE camp to get the campaign back on track are fraught with difficulty given the associations that have been made in the media.

I do think though that Cameron and Corbyn would be well served to speak alongside Gisela Stuart and Kate Hoey, to make the point - and to me it is a very important point - that not all the Brexit campaigners are Britain First types.

The last thing we want (and the Tories certainly don't want it) is for Remain to win the vote and for Farage and people further to the extreme than him, calling foul for years.

That will do nothing for a better standard of debate.

Unfortunately that now looks like the most likely outcome, a narrow Remain win and then a UKIP surge in a few weeks or months time

SeanT said:

This could swing it for REMAIN

They need to campaign hard on this. Vote Brexit, break Britain.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/76258/nicola-sturgeon-negotiate-brussels-keep-scotlands-eu

Could win it for Leave if PB is in any way representative.

Philip_Thompson said:

midwinter said:

Casino_Royale said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

I think we can all agree this is just nuts

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/743751563412283394

Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.

If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.

Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.

It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.

Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.

I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public.

If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?

Compare and contrast with the Tory party, after the Brighton bomb. LOTS of people were killed and injured, it was an assault on an entire government - and the conference went ahead the next day. Even as people bled in hospital.

That's British grit. That is democracy. That's we are meant to be.

Thatcher did her speech hours later, after someone just tried to kill her.

Have we really changed so much as a nation that conspicuous compassion must rule everything?

Stop for a minute and take a look at what you're saying. A young woman with 2 children and a husband has been murdered less than 24 hours ago. It really doesn't come across well. And you always seem like a sensible Leaver.

It's not about Leave/Remain. What has happened is a tragedy, people need to mourn and the murderer needs dealing with. However there are lots of could-be murderers, nutters and terrorists out there. If you send a message that you can end our democratic procedures during an election by murdering an MP then is that the message you want sending?

It's evil, it's tragic, but you can't put a target on the back of every MP next time and forever.

Ordinary citizens are brutally murdered every day under this lots watch. But you dont get normal civil life suspended for several days - even for public servants like policemen and soldiers putting themselves in harms way for the common good.

I fear this just reinforces the out of touch one rule for them one rule for us meme.

tyson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

tyson said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Cyclefree said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

I think we can all agree this is just nuts

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/743751563412283394

Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.

If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.

People die all the time and their friends have to get on with life. Democracy matters. The referendum matters. We can't put this on hold because of one event - no matter how awful it is for the people concerned. And if the MP does not feel like going out they have volunteers and others to face the public.
We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.

Agreed.

I never replied to you before about the prospects for soft, centre left wing politics for 2020 with a Brexit vote. Not great I'm afraid.
You see Brexit will lead to an economic shock, prolonged by years of political and economic uncertainty. Except this'll be worse than 2008 because we are in a much weaker fiscal position to deal with this kind of shock. .....

Tyson, thankyou for the reply. Just to be clear on the economic shock, when is this going to take place so that we can all watch out for it? Does it start in 2016 with the Brexit vote or is it delayed to 2017 or 2018 or does it only start in the year that we actually exit, such as 2020?

PS The Treasury central forecast was for a milder recession much milder than 2008.

The economic shock starts in the 3rd quarter 2016 following the vote- we go into a mild downturn. But, we will have political uncertainty as it becomes clear that the Tories do not have a leader who can command a majority in the HoC. And then there is the uncertainty of the EU- this will be accompanied by businesses starting to announce that they will move out of the UK- then we move into a house price crash, continuing economic uncertainty and political uncertainty. And so it goes on. Maybe five years.

The IMF and the Treasury cannot say this because they would be accused of scaremongering.

Thanks I will bookmark that.

SeanT said:

Whoever is running the REMAIN campaign needs to be sacked, now, and replaced by someone with a sense of the public mood, and an ability to fire up emotions.

Is S. K. Tremayne available perhaps?

The thing is that Cameron is fighting for his political life. I hope, however, he can bring his most statesmanlike side.

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

I think we can all agree this is just nuts

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/743751563412283394

Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.

If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.

Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.

It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.

Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.

I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public.

If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?

Compare and contrast with the Tory party, after the Brighton bomb. LOTS of people were killed and injured, it was an assault on an entire government - and the conference went ahead the next day. Even as people bled in hospital.

That's British grit. That is democracy. That's what we are meant to be.

One of my favourite anecdotes about that whole ghastly affair was that M&S opened early so that those who'd only the nightwear they stood in could buy suits/dresses for the conference.

Shades of Lord Uxbridge's leg (for the uninitiated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Uxbridge's_leg).

Part of the British mythos is our coolness under fire, as parodied in the dining scene in 'Carry on up the Khyber' (displaying the full might of my intellectual credentials here ).

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rottenborough said:

marke09 said:

rottenborough said:

marke09 said:

Pulpstar said:

The campaigns should restart Saturday (Much as I dislike both of them), though I fear an indefinite suspension is incoming.

Remain have said they are restarting tomorrow

Can we have a link for this pls - I haven't seen anything.

Andrew Neil on the Daily Politics

Nothing on their news page or twitter feed. Perhaps we'll see something later.

I am due to be organizing some Remain street work tomorrow, so it would be good to know in advance. Last I heard Labour had suspended campaigning for the weekend.

I think it is likely that it will be suspended until monday

Seems the case to me. I think Andrew Neil may be going on the last Remain tweet which said campaigning suspended for the day.

I have a feeling the public might not be in the mood to be badged about the Referendum after yesterday's events, but I could be wrong.

It will be monday. Neither side will risk the abuse that would come from being the first one to restart campaigning...

John_M said:

SeanT said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

SeanT said:

I think we can all agree this is just nuts

https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/743751563412283394

Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.

If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.

Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.

It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.

Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.

I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public.

If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?

Compare and contrast with the Tory party, after the Brighton bomb. LOTS of people were killed and injured, it was an assault on an entire government - and the conference went ahead the next day. Even as people bled in hospital.

That's British grit. That is democracy. That's what we are meant to be.

One of my favourite anecdotes about that whole ghastly affair was that M&S opened early so that those who'd only the nightwear they stood in could buy suits/dresses for the conference.

Shades of Lord Uxbridge's leg (for the uninitiated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Uxbridge's_leg).

Part of the British mythos is our coolness under fire, as parodied in the dining scene in 'Carry on up the Khyber' (displaying the full might of my intellectual credentials here ).

Carry On? Is that code for 'remain'?!

TCPoliticalBetting said:

I saw this earlier and based on the lacklustre LabourIN campaign so far when they suspended their campaigning in February, March and April, would anyone notice?

Tamara Cohen ✔ tamcohen
Labour expected to suspend campaigning all weekend. MPs hoping for a recall of Parliament on Monday to pay tribute to #JoCoxMP

Given the massive disconnect between our supporters (Leave) and the party (Remain) the best thing we could do is to respectfully pull up our tent and go home.

NeilVW said:

tpfkar said:

On-topic, we had 78% return on all postal votes in our area by Wednesday, so I would be buying turnout.

Postal turnout is always a lot higher than on the day, no?

They do now advertise that they will accept postal votes at the polling station so good point that % will increase.

Observation.
We are today hearing just non-English voices campaigning for REMAIN. That of course has failed in the past.

Sandpit said:

williamglenn said:

SeanT said:

This could swing it for REMAIN

They need to campaign hard on this. Vote Brexit, break Britain.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/76258/nicola-sturgeon-negotiate-brussels-keep-scotlands-eu

"Nicola Sturgeon would bypass the British government and negotiate directly with Brussels to keep Scotland in the EU should voters back Brexit next week."

That would be quite a smart approach on her part, and would make life incredibly difficult for the Westminster Brexit negotiators having to deal with Brussels at the same time.

Wishful thinking there. Nicola has no standing whatsoever in Brussles, they won't give her the time of day. This was made clear when the ECJ ruled on Scottish tuition fees being outside their jurisdiction, and an internal matter for a member state.

There are several countries that do not want to encourage parts of their country to do this with the EU. Starting with Spain!

NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

If national campaigning is suspended, does that mean no leafleting, no canvassing, no anything by anyone? I don't want to drop a bollock over the weekend.

FrankBooth said:

stodge - I disagree. If someone dies that is sad but we then have a competitive by election. However I don't want to see the parliamentary arithmetic changing because someone has been murdered. Labour comfortably won the seat in the general election last year. I see no injustice in them holding it till the next election. If others want to stand that is up to them but if I was Tory, Lib Dem and if they have any sense Ukip, I would hold off.

This exactly. I don't think 1990 should have been contested but that's too late to change, and no reason it has to be a precedent. A death of natural causes should be contested, but murdering someone shouldn't be a route to change parliamentary arithmetic. It would send a potentially dangerous message.

In any case, Labour will romp home here anyway so it's a waste of money and potentially bad publicity for the other parties. The average man in the street will appreciate the solidarity gesture far more than the nuanced arguments presented to the contrary here.

Sorry to be harsh, but suspending the campaigns until Monday (or later) is totally inappropriate. Democracy makes we the people sovereign, not our MPs. While this event is clearly a tragedy, the personal feelings of our elected representatives is not as important as the referendum which will take place next Thursday. Nobody should be forced to campaign if they do not wish to, but it is totally wrong to force that suspension on others for an extended period. It reveals yet again the narcissism of our political classes that the loss of one of their own, however tragic, should outweigh the magnitude of next week's vote.

The best tribute to Jo Cox MP would be to carry on leafleting, canvassing and arguing until 10pm on Thursday 23 June. We must not allow the functioning of our electoral system to be changed by the actions of terrorists or lunatics.

SandyRentool said:

If national campaigning is suspended, does that mean no leafleting, no canvassing, no anything by anyone? I don't want to drop a bollock over the weekend.

That was the message last night from VoteLEAVE. However it seems that it all restarts tomorrow.

PlatoSaid said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Observation.
We are today hearing just non-English voices campaigning for REMAIN. That of course has failed in the past.

I'm avoiding all news and Twitter - I can't face anymore of it. Kitchen Nightmares and other pulp TV for me.

Kyle was amazing - victims of terror attacks who'd survived the Orlando, Tunisian and Tube horrors.

I have the footie and work! 4pm meeting with SEO chap.

NeilVW said:

tpfkar said:

On-topic, we had 78% return on all postal votes in our area by Wednesday, so I would be buying turnout.

Postal turnout is always a lot higher than on the day, no?

In the old days, when you had to sign your life away (and get a doctor or some such to countersign), PV turnout was typically close to 90%. Since they became available on demand, turnouts have fallen - below 75% is not untypical for a local election. Where political parties pressure their supporters to sign up for perpetual postal voting, it can be lower still, since someone may have applied for a GE postal vote and not be interested in using it for other votes that come along. But still a reasonable differential on turnout at the polling station.

Nevertheless given the publicity around the Referendum, I'd expect PV turnout to be higher than usual, and still higher than polling station turnout, but not by a very huge margin.

welshowl said:

Question for the legal eagles. If and when someone is charged with Ms Cox's murder, what does that do to the ability of media (in the UK at least) to cover events?

not a leagal eagle but they cant publish anything that is detrimental to him =having a fair trial - he has to be charged in the next couple of hours (hence the 24hrs in Police custody )

marke09 said:

welshowl said:

Question for the legal eagles. If and when someone is charged with Ms Cox's murder, what does that do to the ability of media (in the UK at least) to cover events?

not a leagal eagle but they cant publish anything that is detrimental to him =having a fair trial - he has to be charged in the next couple of hours (hence the 24hrs in Police custody )

My guess is that period will be extended while they have him fully assessed.