Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
Yes but it makes you feel ever so smug to conflate the two.
Whilst I felt it was tasteless to dive right into this yesterday, I would have to agree with posters on both sides who say this is inextricably linked to the referendum.
And whilst this will be met with a chorus of disapproval, I cannot dismiss out of hand the possibility that this was a false flag attack. Yokel, who seems respected by many here, told us that the intelligence services simply would not wear a Leave result. For my own part, I have consistently stated that Britain being embedded within the EU structure is vital to US geostrategic interests, and I would be surprised if we were simply allowed as an electorate to walk out of the door. I very much hope this is wrong.
If this is right, and I am not alleging it, then homework will have been done, and we will see drip drip drip of this man's right wingery come to light.
There was a strange report of a schoolgirl who saw a man in a black hoodie with binoculars hiding in the graveyard. That does not match the description of Mair, who was wearing a T-shirt and a white baseball cap.
However, she could be a fantasist or mistaken. Or it was an unrelated peeping tom or something. Or perhaps post-event undercover surveillance of an address.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
Yes but it makes you feel ever so smug to conflate the two.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
Yes but it makes you feel ever so smug to conflate the two.
@Fenster - Cheers. We are driven by experience. My experience is that thanks to an active, engaged state I got a range of opportunities that none of my predecessors got and ended up where I am now. It's convinced me that public spending is a good thing and that redistribution works.
My vote for Remain is not about Brussels. I have seen up close how EU institutions work and I have dealt with many people on the gravy train. I hate it and would destroy it all if I could. I am not Remain to support those institutions or centralisation. I am Remain because I think Leave will do significant damage to those who can afford it least. I think it will lead to lower public spending, less redistribution and a consolidation of the power of the wealthy elite that run this country. I get why people are voting Leave. I just don't think it will produce the results they want. And while I understand the temporary lift cocking a snoop at those in power will give, in the end I see it as an act of self-harm.
I met someone yesterday who told me the EU were centralising pensions and she was damned if she was going to finance the French retiring at 55 when she'll have to wait till she's nearly 70. I asked her where she'd heard this and she told me from a tax lawyer.
I wonder if the referendum might be postponed, for 2 reasons.
1. There will be a funeral at some point, presumably in the next week. I think that will be seen as influencing the vote in some way.
2. We urgently need a debate about the nature of our debate, and it would help democracy if we had it before we vote.
I would like to see the Boris and the PM, head to head, not about Brexit, but about the way both campaigns have been handled and what might be done differently.
It was mentioned briefly yesterday, if it's illegal to lie in a soap commercial, why is it legal to lie to voters?
Unlike DavidL I have direct experience of both this Euro ref campaign and the independence Scotland campaign of 2014. In Scotland in was as a participant. In this ref as part of a study which is looking at the nature of local campaigns in locations across England, Scotland and one in Wales.
However, this note Is a personal observation rather than any results. The level of grassroots campaigning is totally different. In Indy ref it was huge. In this campaign it is small. This is best reflected in the total absence of window posters in most areas. However even the most active leave campaigning say around the Farage bus is generating minor crowds compared with the huge and often spontaneous rallies of the Yes campaign. I would be astonished if the turnout across the UK was anywhere near the 85% of Scotland in 2014.
Finally this European campaign is much more bitter. At one level this might be because in this referendum both sides are fighting basically a scaremongering campaign. In Scotland it was only the No campaign. There is precious little hope in either side of this referendum. However, it would be naive not to understand that this campaign is only about one thing at grassroots level and that is immigration. Leavers on this site may debate sovereignty, trade, EU bureaucracy etc but at grassroots level it is only about immigration. It would be difficult to have a pleasant campaign about that subject and this is not a pleasant campaign.
One final thought on the tragedy in Yorkshire and the death of that splendid young MP. Will any of the journalists today writing such lovely things about Jo Cox ever reflect on the demonising of all elected representatives which is the meat and drink of virtually all of the printed press. Most MPs across the parties are very far from the self serving chancers which is the normal portrayal and very much nicer. And most of us if asked to choose between having a drink with them or a Mail or Sunday Times journalist would choose the elected rep any day of the week. That doesn't make the journalists in these papers responsible for the actions of some lone madman. It just makes them hypocrites.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
After a tragedy there's an opportunity for people to show their best side and most do. There's also an opportunity for a small minority to show their real nastiness.
Be it Orlando, or Leeds, the real "fanatics" will use it for political ends. By doing so, they show themselves up. You can only make a measured judgement when the facts emerge and that can take weeks.
Mateen does seem to have been "disturbed" and Mair may well turn out to be the same. Jo Cox wanted a kinder world, and I'd suggest everyone does. However a very small minority believe that hate is the way to achieve it. And some of those who race to judgement are the real haters.
As has been said earlier, the majority would settle for a revised EU based on a trading community. That is not on offer and seemingly never will be, so we're forced into a binary judgement.
Whatever the result, even if it's by one vote, we should accept it and move on together. That doesn't mean abandoning the possibility of changes later on, though.
I wonder if the referendum might be postponed, for 2 reasons.
1. There will be a funeral at some point, presumably in the next week. I think that will be seen as influencing the vote in some way.
2. We urgently need a debate about the nature of our debate, and it would help democracy if we had it before we vote.
I would like to see the Boris and the PM, head to head, not about Brexit, but about the way both campaigns have been handled and what might be done differently.
It was mentioned briefly yesterday, if it's illegal to lie in a soap commercial, why is it legal to lie to voters?
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
@Fenster - Cheers. We are driven by experience. My experience is that thanks to an active, engaged state I got a range of opportunities that none of my predecessors got and ended up where I am now. It's convinced me that public spending is a good thing and that redistribution works.
My vote for Remain is not about Brussels. I have seen up close how EU institutions work and I have dealt with many people on the gravy train. I hate it and would destroy it all if I could. I am not Remain to support those institutions or centralisation. I am Remain because I think Leave will do significant damage to those who can afford it least. I think it will lead to lower public spending, less redistribution and a consolidation of the power of the wealthy elite that run this country. I get why people are voting Leave. I just don't think it will produce the results they want. And while I understand the temporary lift cocking a snoop at those in power will give, in the end I see it as an act of self-harm.
I fear you might be right in that analysis and it will show in the ballot box.
I wouldn't be angry about a Remain win; not even annoyed. On balance, taking all selfishness out of it and seeing the big, big picture, it's probably the right shout. It just bugs me that if I voted Remain I'd personally be giving my mandate to it. Uck.
When you think about it, the idea of the EU should be a great thing. It should be getting 80% of the popular vote. The fact the vote is close just shows how crap it and the people running it is.
I met someone yesterday who told me the EU were centralising pensions and she was damned if she was going to finance the French retiring at 55 when she'll have to wait till she's nearly 70. I asked her where she'd heard this and she told me from a tax lawyer.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
I don't necessarily disagree. The point in question was - should we kill them?
Finally this European campaign is much more bitter. At one level this might be because in this referendum both sides are fighting basically a scaremongering campaign. In Scotland it was only the No campaign. There is precious little hope in either side of this referendum. However, it would be naive not to understand that this campaign is only about one thing at grassroots level and that is immigration. Leavers on this site may debate sovereignty, trade, EU bureaucracy etc but at grassroots level it is only about immigration. It would be difficult to have a pleasant campaign about that subject and this is not a pleasant campaign.
A great point. What I saw of the Scottish debate was that Yes got so close by offering Hope. There were other factors such as pride in yourselves as a nation and self-determination, but my real takeaway was hope. In an era of negative politics its amazing to realise that we have forgotten just how powerful hope is, especially to the people who have so little.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it. She's not my MP, I'd not heard of her until yesterday, it looks like a tragic and horrible one-off by someone who's mentally ill.
Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance?
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
Plato- how do you think the likes of Farage, and the right would have played this situation if the roles had been reversed? If it had been a Muslim, or a foreign attacker. We would have seen this site at its worst too.
If you notice, many of us pro remainers here are not making any political capital. But that is how the soft left, particularly the liberal left behave (also the soft right). Much like the Democrats in the states- it is just not in their DNA to be that nasty.
The right fight dirtier- t'was ever thus. Look at the amount of ad hominem attacks people like Roger and I get here. Look at the right wing papers- the Mail, Express, the Sun. I tell my wife not to read them because they are just corrosive, they eat you from the inside.
If there was a game changer yesterday, it was Farage's sickening poster. I absolutely believe that the Out campaign is fundamentally one long, shrill, overpowering, obscene, racist dog whistle. The similarities to the nihilistic politics of the 1930's are just so evident- the root problems today are economic inequality but let's blame those at the bottom of the pile, the migrants for it.
Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Without wishing to divert onto a theoretical w**kfest on this, if someone is insane, truly insane, and doesn't know the meaning of what they are doing, then you might as well execute them for peeling an orange because the moral judgement, to them, might be the same.
Whilst I disagree with capital punishment if one is unable to distinguish between peeling an orange and murder they need to be locked up for the rest of their natural life in Broadmoor.
I wonder if the referendum might be postponed, for 2 reasons.
1. There will be a funeral at some point, presumably in the next week. I think that will be seen as influencing the vote in some way.
2. We urgently need a debate about the nature of our debate, and it would help democracy if we had it before we vote.
I would like to see the Boris and the PM, head to head, not about Brexit, but about the way both campaigns have been handled and what might be done differently.
It was mentioned briefly yesterday, if it's illegal to lie in a soap commercial, why is it legal to lie to voters?
1. Because of the nature of her death, it is likely that it will be a while before Jo Cox's body is released for burial. I would expect any funeral to be after the Referendum has been held.
2. You really want Cameron to justify Project Fear in a debate with Boris? That's bold...
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
Because people haven't really understood the nature of the transformation of Peoples' attitude to politics and politicians. Or don't want to.
Funnily enough, Jo Cox's murder might influence peoples' attitudes, as they realise that politicians are generally trying to do the best for people.
The markets are much brighter this morning with the FTSE 100 Index breaking through the 6000 barrier, up around 55 points in the first few minutes of trading.
Gosh, its almost as if the current state of the market and good polls for leave (such as Ipsos Mori only yesterday) are not connected after all. Who'd have thought?
Actually, I think the markets are reacting to the events of yesterday which they think has probably killed off the chance of a Leave vote.
The markets are all over the place currently as no-one knows what is going to happen. However, the pattern seems to be that if Brexit looks more likely the markets react negatively, if it looks less likely they go up again. They are, of course, completely amoral and there was a very big and rapid upward spike after the killing was announced yesterday.
For us in the UK any decrease in the government tax take that Brexit causes - whether that be by slower sales at home, reduced exports or decreased investment - will have a direct and negative impact on government income. That will mean higher taxes and/or further spending cuts.
It had batter turn out to be worth it because a lot of people are going to be very discomfited.
Good morning all. I talked about superstition briefly yesterday. The markets are in a superstitious mood. Don't worry, I'm not about to go all hunchman on you .
Global government debt is around $60 trillion (that's a lot, but global GDP is around ~75 trillion, so it's a large scale version of the UK's current position, however, it's incredibly skewed). Global corporate debt is worse. There are increasing numbers of companies that don't generate the cash to cover their funding obligations.
Personal debt completes the trifecta. I haven't found a good source for global personal debt, so we can only look to the UK. UK personal debt is ~£1.5 trillion (roughly the same as the national debt).
To digress a moment: UK household budgets are often incredibly fragile: 10 million families have no savings at all. The average savings are (depending on where you go for the numbers) £5-6k.
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
I think there is a huge risk on backing Trump as the GOP candidate- more than 1.07. I wouldn't touch it.
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
There is still talk of plots to throw him overboard...
I wonder if the referendum might be postponed, for 2 reasons.
1. There will be a funeral at some point, presumably in the next week. I think that will be seen as influencing the vote in some way.
2. We urgently need a debate about the nature of our debate, and it would help democracy if we had it before we vote.
I would like to see the Boris and the PM, head to head, not about Brexit, but about the way both campaigns have been handled and what might be done differently.
It was mentioned briefly yesterday, if it's illegal to lie in a soap commercial, why is it legal to lie to voters?
1. Because of the nature of her death, it is likely that it will be a while before Jo Cox's body is released for burial. I would expect any funeral to be after the Referendum has been held.
2. You really want Cameron to justify Project Fear in a debate with Boris? That's bold...
And frankly, if I were the Cox family - I wouldn't want our private grief used/caught up in an unseemly and inevitable media circus.
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
FPT. Despite all calls for reticence and pause for mourning, the Remain Campaign and its many MSM supporters are going to rub Jo Cox' murder in Leavers faces; one way or another.
I posted the above around 6 am this morning.
I was right, The BBC for one, can't leave the subject alone.
I am one of the "privileged elite" who will be probably be just fine. Globalisation has worked in my favour so far. I have worked in other countries. I buy cheap goods made in China and the Ukranian checkout assistant in my local supermarket is really good at her job. The eastern European who cuts my hair likewise. I haven't had to queue behind immigrants at A&E with a cough.
I will be sad if we leave, but probably not the end of My World.
But I do think political debate in our Country is in crisis, and I would like mature grown up politicians to talk about it.
Nigel Farage's Nazi tribute poster yesterday was disgusting, and I know Boris is not "officially" campaigning with Farage (although others are), and while they did not publicly endorse it yesterday, neither did any official Lave campaigner condemn it either.
I think we would be better served if politicians of all stripes had done so, even if Farage is deemed to be a fellow traveller.
Finally this European campaign is much more bitter. At one level this might be because in this referendum both sides are fighting basically a scaremongering campaign. In Scotland it was only the No campaign. There is precious little hope in either side of this referendum. However, it would be naive not to understand that this campaign is only about one thing at grassroots level and that is immigration. Leavers on this site may debate sovereignty, trade, EU bureaucracy etc but at grassroots level it is only about immigration. It would be difficult to have a pleasant campaign about that subject and this is not a pleasant campaign.
A great point. What I saw of the Scottish debate was that Yes got so close by offering Hope. There were other factors such as pride in yourselves as a nation and self-determination, but my real takeaway was hope. In an era of negative politics its amazing to realise that we have forgotten just how powerful hope is, especially to the people who have so little.
Hope is immensely powerful. But think how those hopeful Scots would be feeling today with an independent Scotland facing economic and fiscal catastrophe because of the collapse in oil prices, while waiting to see if their major trading partner was just about to leave the EU.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance? d.
ntally one long, shrill, overpowering, obscene, racist dog whistle. The similarities to the nihilistic politics of the 1930's are just so evident- the root problems today are economic inequality but let's blame those at the bottom of the pile, the migrants for it.
Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
F*@& you. You werent at the Conservative Party conference. You've not seen anything as ugly in your life as what you saw there by the protesters. Think of the very worst venom of facebook and twitter collected together in their tens of thousands.
A friend of mine was told she was going to get raped, jews were spat on and songs sung that they should be put in ovens.
The whole atmosphere was explosive. Attendees were told not to wear their pass outside of the conference. I worn mine and a police officer told me it was causing a disturbance, me having it on display.
Superb post from Rochdale Pioneers on the previous thread. He is absolutely spot on:
I put the blame squarely with both camps. Yes Farage has produced a homage to Nazi propaganda with a poster I suspect will be quietly dropped. Yes people are banging on about foreigners like they are aliens. But also look to remain and "Project Fear" - vilify and try and scare people into voting one particular way. Its not working? Threaten them with government imposed financial ruin. A lot of posters on here are right leaning so you may not get this next bit. This government is nasty. It has victimised abused and denigrated the poor the sick the dying, all the time egged on by scum press like the Daily Hurrah-for-the-Blackshirts. Its taking people too sick to work, putting them through a bullshit "assesment" and pronouncing them fit for work, taking away what little money they have, even wheelchairs FFS. Then when they are found dead IDS says "nothing to do with me". And the working poor? Scroungers. Feckless. Look, that one has a big TV and claims they need to go to a food bank, all of which are "politically motivated" It's not just this campaign. Its the denouement of a long campaign to divide people so that the people at the top get away with it. What passes for political dialogue these days is a disgrace. We proclaim the brilliance of Britain as we forget everything that it means to actually be British.
I agree with Rochdale Pioneers, especially the sentence "Its the denouement of a long campaign to divide people so that the people at the top get away with it."
But, there is also something incredibly divisive about referendums themselves.
We are confronted with a binary choice (Leave or Remain), whereas what I really want (Stay in a Reformed EU) apparently is not even possible, or open to any discussion.
Similarly, in the Sindy, the Scots were told the only options were Yes or No, whereas (at least at the beginning), most of the Scots wanted much more freedom in a properly federal UK.
Neither of the referendums need have been so divisive, and Cameron must take a lot of the blame for that.
Completely agree. This referendum is all about solving a problem Cameron had with his right wing. That's it.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it. She's not my MP, I'd not heard of her until yesterday, it looks like a tragic and horrible one-off by someone who's mentally ill.
Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance?
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
Plato- how do you think the likes of Farage, and the right would have played this situation if the roles had been reversed? If it had been a Muslim, or a foreign attacker. We would have seen this site at its worst too.
If you notice, many of us pro remainers here are not making any political capital. But that is how the soft left, particularly the liberal left behave (also the soft right). Much like the Democrats in the states- it is just not in their DNA to be that nasty.
Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Tyson, you have repeatedly called people on here racist, xenephobe and fascists. I'll even go and dig out the posts for you if you've conveniently forgotten.
The fact that even in this post you're likening the Out campaign to the NSDP shows that you are entirely lacking in self awareness, a sense of proportion or even a knowledge of history.
The UK is a prosperous, attractive country with a long and proud democratic tradition. It is merely deciding whether it wishes to stay within an organisation that has evolved a long way from its original purpose.
To assert that this is an apocalyptic inflection point presaging some kind of neo-fascist police state is hysterical bollocks. Please stop.
Whilst I felt it was tasteless to dive right into this yesterday, I would have to agree with posters on both sides who say this is inextricably linked to the referendum.
And whilst this will be met with a chorus of disapproval, I cannot dismiss out of hand the possibility that this was a false flag attack. Yokel, who seems respected by many here, told us that the intelligence services simply would not wear a Leave result. For my own part, I have consistently stated that Britain being embedded within the EU structure is vital to US geostrategic interests, and I would be surprised if we were simply allowed as an electorate to walk out of the door. I very much hope this is wrong.
If this is right, and I am not alleging it, then homework will have been done, and we will see drip drip drip of this man's right wingery come to light.
There was a strange report of a schoolgirl who saw a man in a black hoodie with binoculars hiding in the graveyard. That does not match the description of Mair, who was wearing a T-shirt and a white baseball cap.
However, she could be a fantasist or mistaken. Or it was an unrelated peeping tom or something. Or perhaps post-event undercover surveillance of an address.
An odd report, nevertheless.
I like conspiracy theorists. Italy is full of them- Italians distrust everything that they're told.
Had a bit of a hedonistic evening yesterday, woke to see the dreadful news. The sooner we have capital punishment the better.
The killer might be insane.
And?
Insanity is a defence to murder.
Doesn't make it right. The man has killed somebody beyond reasonable doubt, he should be executed.
Plenty of legal resources on trials and appeals woukd be used if course. Executing people can be very expensive, though I imagine you would prefer a slimmed down system to address that.
Call it fast track if you like, in this case (others will point to similar) there is zero doubt. I'm not interested in motive, lining lawyer's pockets, research, anything. Have the trial on monday, follow some sort of procedure, then call Pierrepoint. Job done.
Who is the job done for? I have very little doubt that the family of Jo Cox would be appalled by such an outcome, especially if the killer does have mental health issues (and how many killers of this type do not?). Killing someone because it makes you feel better is not a justification for doing it.
Its not about making me feel better, its about economics and justice, aligned with punishment. I'm actually not interested in his state of mind, there are plenty more deserving cases than his. Mental health is a very real problem, it needs treating, I see no point in treating this man. He's never going to be released, what's the point?
So we should euthanise this man, like we would with an animal? As a society we should be better than that, he is still a human being after all.
Do you believe in us having armed forces?
Or police marksmen?
Absolutely I do. Both roles have extensive checks and balances. The police in particular will only ever discharge their weapon if life is in immediate danger, not just that the man in front of them did something bad. They will have to justify their actions to a judge at the inquest if they kill anyone.
Summary executions have no place in a decent society.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it. She's not my MP, I'd not heard of her until yesterday, it looks like a tragic and horrible one-off by someone who's mentally ill.
Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance?
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
Plato- how do you think the likes of Farage, and the right would have played this situation if the roles had been reversed? If it had been a Muslim, or a foreign attacker. We would have seen this site at its worst too.
If you notice, many of us pro remainers here are not making any political capital. But that is how the soft left, particularly the liberal left behave (also the soft right). Much like the Democrats in the states- it is just not in their DNA to be that nasty.
The right fight dirtier- t'was ever thus. Look at the amount of ad hominem attacks people like Roger and I get here. Look at the right wing papers- the Mail, Express, the Sun. I tell my wife not to read them because they are just corrosive, they eat you from the inside.
If there was a game changer yesterday, it was Farage's sickening poster. I absolutely believe that the Out campaign is fundamentally one long, shrill, overpowering, obscene, racist dog whistle. The similarities to the nihilistic politics of the 1930's are just so evident- the root problems today are economic inequality but let's blame those at the bottom of the pile, the migrants for it.
Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Total Rubbish, the Left were always bloody cutthroats. From the the French Revolution to the Berlin Wall, their trail of blood and bones is there for all to see.
FPT. Despite all calls for reticence and pause for mourning, the Remain Campaign and its many MSM supporters are going to rub Jo Cox' murder in Leavers faces; one way or another.
I posted the above around 6 am this morning.
I was right, The BBC for one, can't leave the subject alone.
Bloody BBC, giving extensive coverage to the first political assassination in this country for 26 years, and the first of a woman ever. Total bias. Sickening.
I notice that in this morning's thread header, those hard nosed spread-bettors at Sporting Index have REMAIN at a mid price of 51.5% with LEAVE on 48.5% , so a 3% difference therefore between the two opposing camps.
I'd be surprised if ultimately they were proved to be very far from the actual result, which therefore continues to make Ladbrokes' "Less than 1% margin of victory for EITHER side" (i.e. between 49.5% - 50.5% whichever side wins) look interesting, still on offer at 10/1. This looks like fair value to me, limited to a very modest punt, even if it means spending a stressful period over a number of hours, waiting for the results to roll in from every area of the UK.
The markets are all over the place currently as no-one knows what is going to happen. However, the pattern seems to be that if Brexit looks more likely the markets react negatively, if it looks less likely they go up again. They are, of course, completely amoral and there was a very big and rapid upward spike after the killing was announced yesterday.
For us in the UK any decrease in the government tax take that Brexit causes - whether that be by slower sales at home, reduced exports or decreased investment - will have a direct and negative impact on government income. That will mean higher taxes and/or further spending cuts.
It had batter turn out to be worth it because a lot of people are going to be very discomfited.
Good morning all. I talked about superstition briefly yesterday. The markets are in a superstitious mood. Don't worry, I'm not about to go all hunchman on you .
Global government debt is around $60 trillion (that's a lot, but global GDP is around ~75 trillion, so it's a large scale version of the UK's current position, however, it's incredibly skewed). Global corporate debt is worse. There are increasing numbers of companies that don't generate the cash to cover their funding obligations.
Personal debt completes the trifecta. I haven't found a good source for global personal debt, so we can only look to the UK. UK personal debt is ~£1.5 trillion (roughly the same as the national debt).
To digress a moment: UK household budgets are often incredibly fragile: 10 million families have no savings at all. The average savings are (depending on where you go for the numbers) £5-6k.
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
I agree with a lot of that but the underlying theme is that we want to spend (and in most cases have spent) tomorrow's money today. In many cases we have done so claiming to believe that "investing" today will mean that there is even more money tomorrow but the truth is that this is ultimately driven by greed and selfishness.
Mr. Observer, clear this would be top story for some time. If there are genuine questions over the 'Britain first' claims then these need to be aired.
Mr. Fenster, a danger may be that as ISIS/Daesh becomes weaker and ceases to be a threat, the coalition against them becomes more concerned carving up the spoils or seeing one another as graver threats.
Whilst I felt it was tasteless to dive right into this yesterday, I would have to agree with posters on both sides who say this is inextricably linked to the referendum.
And whilst this will be met with a chorus of disapproval, I cannot dismiss out of hand the possibility that this was a false flag attack. Yokel, who seems respected by many here, told us that the intelligence services simply would not wear a Leave result. For my own part, I have consistently stated that Britain being embedded within the EU structure is vital to US geostrategic interests, and I would be surprised if we were simply allowed as an electorate to walk out of the door. I very much hope this is wrong.
If this is right, and I am not alleging it, then homework will have been done, and we will see drip drip drip of this man's right wingery come to light.
There was a strange report of a schoolgirl who saw a man in a black hoodie with binoculars hiding in the graveyard. That does not match the description of Mair, who was wearing a T-shirt and a white baseball cap.
However, she could be a fantasist or mistaken. Or it was an unrelated peeping tom or something. Or perhaps post-event undercover surveillance of an address.
An odd report, nevertheless.
I like conspiracy theorists. Italy is full of them- Italians distrust everything that they're told.
The markets are all over the place currently as no-one knows what is going to happen. However, the pattern seems to be that if Brexit looks more likely the markets react negatively, if it looks less likely they go up again. They are, of course, completely amoral and there was a very big and rapid upward spike after the killing was announced yesterday.
For us in the UK any decrease in the government tax take that Brexit causes - whether that be by slower sales at home, reduced exports or decreased investment - will have a direct and negative impact on government income. That will mean higher taxes and/or further spending cuts.
It had batter turn out to be worth it because a lot of people are going to be very discomfited.
Good morning all. I talked about superstition briefly yesterday. The markets are in a superstitious mood. Don't worry, I'm not about to go all hunchman on you .
Global government debt is around $60 trillion (that's a lot, but global GDP is around ~75 obligations.
Personal debt completes the trifecta. I haven't found a good source for global personal debt, so we can only look to the UK. UK personal debt is ~£1.5 trillion (roughly the same as the national debt).
To digress a moment: UK household budgets are often incredibly fragile: 10 million families have no savings at all. The average savings are (depending on where you go for the numbers) £5-6k.
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
I agree with a lot of that but the underlying theme is that we want to spend (and in most cases have spent) tomorrow's money today. In many cases we have done so claiming to believe that "investing" today will mean that there is even more money tomorrow but the truth is that this is ultimately driven by greed and selfishness.
And the Leave manifesto promises us more spending, as well as tax cuts. Either the Tories who lead the Leave campaign are lying now or they have been lying to us up to now.
Good morning all. I talked about superstition briefly yesterday. The markets are in a superstitious mood. Don't worry, I'm not about to go all hunchman on you .
Global government debt is around $60 trillion (that's a lot, but global GDP is around ~75 trillion, so it's a large scale version of the UK's current position, however, it's incredibly skewed). Global corporate debt is worse. There are increasing numbers of companies that don't generate the cash to cover their funding obligations.
Personal debt completes the trifecta. I haven't found a good source for global personal debt, so we can only look to the UK. UK personal debt is ~£1.5 trillion (roughly the same as the national debt).
To digress a moment: UK household budgets are often incredibly fragile: 10 million families have no savings at all. The average savings are (depending on where you go for the numbers) £5-6k.
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
I agree with a lot of that but the underlying theme is that we want to spend (and in most cases have spent) tomorrow's money today. In many cases we have done so claiming to believe that "investing" today will mean that there is even more money tomorrow but the truth is that this is ultimately driven by greed and selfishness.
The ENRON economy.
The Smartest Guys in the Room is a book every single PM and President should read before taking over the reins.
The parallels between ENRON's economic management and Gordon Brown's are eye-watering.
Superb post from Rochdale Pioneers on the previous thread. He is absolutely spot on:
I put the blame squarely with tto actually be British.
I agree with Rochdale Pioneers, especially the sentence "Its the denouement of a long campaign to divide people so that the people at the top get away with it."
But, there is also something incredibly divisive about referendums themselves.
We are confronted with a binary choice (Leave or Remain), whereas what I really want (Stay in a Reformed EU) apparently is not even possible, or open to any discussion.
Similarly, in the Sindy, the Scots were told the only options were Yes or No, whereas (at least at the beginning), most of the Scots wanted much more freedom in a properly federal UK.
Neither of the referendums need have been so divisive, and Cameron must take a lot of the blame for that.
Completely agree. This referendum is all about solving a problem Cameron had with his right wing. That's it.
Well that went well!
It went very well. For democratic politics.
A significant minority of Cons right wingers and potential Kippers wanted a referendum. They campaigned and put pressure on the political parties for it and, in order to win the general election, Dave acquiesced. No different from any other pressure group - look at the commitment to repeal the Hunting Act.
Had he not acquiesced, those who wanted a referendum would have probably voted UKIP (and felt disenfranchised), Dave would have lost the election, and the whole issue would have been moot.
As ever, and I find it surprising to have to repeat it so often on this site, politics is the art of achieving the best outcome possible, not the best possible outcome.
Appreciate the nice comments about what I've been posting. I do hope that both major parties can learn a lot from this debate - both about how people actually exist and their opinions, and about how as a nation we actually behave.
I've talked for several years now about two economies. There is a paper economy talked about in Osborne's budget forecasts (the ones that get heavily revised so often that we needed 4 budgets in a year) - the one where we have recovered from 2008 and everything is rosy. And then there is the real economy where CEO of Sainsbury's expresses concern that the paper growth in disposable income hasn't filtered through to grocery which is still in its 2008 decline.
People are force-fed the paper economy but live in the real economy. On paper things are great even in London. In reality "great" is a starter home costing £450k or 65% of income spent on rent. The media and most politicians spin the story that things are good - the endless property programmes, the "exciting" news about the new iPhone which looks like a 3 year old one. But then they shine a light underneath the stone - the repossession programmes, the endless benefits porn. Last night a programme about slum landlords and slum tenants - apparently the rentier class model doesn't work for either when you scratch beneath the surface.
This is beyond party politics. This is the result of all parties pushing broadly the same policy platform which is working for fewer and fewer people. Whilst left-leaning people like myself have some ideas for change, as do right-leaning people, we all get squashed by the centre establishment TINA lunatics - the Blairites, Cameroons, Cleggs. The "moderate" wing of the Labour and Tory parties, the "reformist" wing of a party I think were called the LibDems but I think they're extinct now - they aren't moderate. They exude one platform one ideology and no dissent. You want totalitarianism - the elective dictatorship - well its right here.
What are we going to do about it? In Labour we overthrew this "moderate" group and tried to talk about alternative policy ideas. The establishment snipe and undermine and want to wipe out this "dissent" forever. Cameron is similarly dismissive of his own critics - despite the "extremist" positions being entirely representative of the majority of most party members.
A British polity with the traditional parties advocating modernised updates of their traditional platforms is required - a restoration of status quo ante before the establishment bought our parties and mutated them to serve their purpose not ours.
Whilst I felt it was tasteless to dive right into this yesterday, I would have to agree with posters on both sides who say this is inextricably linked to the referendum.
And whilst this will be met with a chorus of disapproval, I cannot dismiss out of hand the possibility that this was a false flag attack. Yokel, who seems respected by many here, told us that the intelligence services simply would not wear a Leave result. For my own part, I have consistently stated that Britain being embedded within the EU structure is vital to US geostrategic interests, and I would be surprised if we were simply allowed as an electorate to walk out of the door. I very much hope this is wrong.
If this is right, and I am not alleging it, then homework will have been done, and we will see drip drip drip of this man's right wingery come to light.
There was a strange report of a schoolgirl who saw a man in a black hoodie with binoculars hiding in the graveyard. That does not match the description of Mair, who was wearing a T-shirt and a white baseball cap.
However, she could be a fantasist or mistaken. Or it was an unrelated peeping tom or something. Or perhaps post-event undercover surveillance of an address.
An odd report, nevertheless.
I like conspiracy theorists. Italy is full of them- Italians distrust everything that they're told.
2. You really want Cameron to justify Project Fear in a debate with Boris? That's bold...
I want an honest debate more than I want "my side" to win
Have to say, I'm really liking this considered, reflective Scott_P that's on display this morning.
This Referendum has been fought in the gutter whilst looking for the trapdoor to the sewer. Neither side can claim any high ground. The worst thing is, whoever wins in this tight contest, their moral authority will be questioned. "You only won because of that bloody [ ] ....." All this grief risks having settled little.
As I've said before, I would like Leave to win because it will force us to confront a range of issues - about what we want our nation, our politics and our politicians to be.
I am one of the "privileged elite" who will be probably be just fine. Globalisation has worked in my favour so far. I have worked in other countries. I buy cheap goods made in China and the Ukranian checkout assistant in my local supermarket is really good at her job. The eastern European who cuts my hair likewise. I haven't had to queue behind immigrants at A&E with a cough.
I will be sad if we leave, but probably not the end of My World.
But I do think political debate in our Country is in crisis, and I would like mature grown up politicians to talk about it.
Nigel Farage's Nazi tribute poster yesterday was disgusting, and I know Boris is not "officially" campaigning with Farage (although others are), and while they did not publicly endorse it yesterday, neither did any official Lave campaigner condemn it either.
I think we would be better served if politicians of all stripes had done so, even if Farage is deemed to be a fellow traveller.
I like these posts a lot more than the twitter re-postings, occasionally interesting though they can be.
@JohnM "tyson, you have repeatedly called people on here racist, xenephobe and fascists. i'll even go and dig out the posts for you if you've conveniently forgotten.
the fact that even in this post you're likening the out campaign to the nsdp shows that you are entirely lacking in self awareness, a sense of proportion or even a knowledge of history.
the uk is a prosperous, attractive country with a long and proud democratic tradition. it is merely deciding whether it wishes to stay within an organisation that has evolved a long way from its original purpose.
to assert that this is an apocalyptic inflection point presaging some kind of neo-fascist police state is hysterical bollocks. please stop"
I've never individually called anyone a racist here- I've called the whole out campaign as racist- that's different, and that is something I believe. The fact that individuals take that personally is up to them. You could call Remainers simpletons....I wouldn't take that as an ad hominem attack on me.
Make no mistake- an Out Vote represents a huge lurch rightwards for the UK however you try and gloss it as....yes, we are simply extricating from an organisation. Why are all the extreme right, the facist right, football thugs and so forth so motivated by this one issue.
The markets are all over the place currently as no-one knows what is going to happen. However, the pattern seems to be that if Brexit looks more likely the markets react negatively, if it looks less likely they go up again. They are, of course, completely amoral and there was a very big and rapid upward spike after the killing was announced yesterday.
For us in the UK any decrease in the government tax take that Brexit causes - whether that be by slower sales at home, reduced exports or decreased investment - will have a direct and negative impact on government income. That will mean higher taxes and/or further spending cuts.
It had batter turn out to be worth it because a lot of people are going to be very discomfited.
Good morning all. I talked about superstition briefly yesterday. The markets are in a superstitious mood. Don't worry, I'm not about to go all hunchman on you .
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
I agree with a lot of that but the underlying theme is that we want to spend (and in most cases have spent) tomorrow's money today. In many cases we have done so claiming to believe that "investing" today will mean that there is even more money tomorrow but the truth is that this is ultimately driven by greed and selfishness.
One of the most pernicious aspects of Brown's tenure was the perversion of the word 'investment'.
The Greeks are often lambasted for their behaviour, but I think the evidence is that in the post-2008 era of cheap money, everyone has simply filled their boots, and are now collectively shitting themselves at the thought that interest rates might rise to their historical norms.
In my loonier moments, I think the market throws tantrums much like a toddler does at every sign that this might actually be the case - primarily in the hope that the regulators back down .
FPT. Despite all calls for reticence and pause for mourning, the Remain Campaign and its many MSM supporters are going to rub Jo Cox' murder in Leavers faces; one way or another.
I posted the above around 6 am this morning.
I was right, The BBC for one, can't leave the subject alone.
That's right IMO, and Plato and others saying this will have no impact are most likely wrong. It has almost certainly lost Leave the referendum. However unfairly, a distasteful stink has now been attached by many powerful elements in the media to the immigration debate which was the entirety of the Leave campaign. It will move enough undecideds to enable Remain to limp over the line IMO. Cameron, the luckiest politician for a generation, will snatch victory from the jaws of defeat yet again.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it. She's not my MP, I'd not heard of her until yesterday, it looks like a tragic and horrible one-off by someone who's mentally ill.
Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance?
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
.....Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Tyson, ah the belief in the left that they are good and pure and the right are all evil baby eaters. The belief in this and the use of associated invective such as "lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred", actually tyson inflames the debate.
So just for once, why not drop the student politics of them vs us and consider the possibility that a UK which chooses to govern itself and go down a road that puts voters closer to decisions that affect them, is a much better way to live. After all, one day the UK people may choose a more left wing government - possibly as soon as 2020. At that stage it will be able to bring in those leftie policies free from the EU rules, directives and laws. That sir is what democracy is all about.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I'm waiting for the polls. We can speculate all we like. Could it be a massive change? I don't know. Maybe.
I'd also add that it would offend my sense of decorum to debate the impact further. I'm quite keen on Brexit, but a young woman lies dead and her husband and children are now bereft. I'm recently widowed myself. I know how they must feel.
I am one of the "privileged elite" who will be probably be just fine. Globalisation has worked in my favour so far. I have worked in other countries. I buy cheap goods made in China and the Ukranian checkout assistant in my local supermarket is really good at her job. The eastern European who cuts my hair likewise. I haven't had to queue behind immigrants at A&E with a cough.
I will be sad if we leave, but probably not the end of My World.
But I do think political debate in our Country is in crisis, and I would like mature grown up politicians to talk about it.
Nigel Farage's Nazi tribute poster yesterday was disgusting, and I know Boris is not "officially" campaigning with Farage (although others are), and while they did not publicly endorse it yesterday, neither did any official Lave campaigner condemn it either.
I think we would be better served if politicians of all stripes had done so, even if Farage is deemed to be a fellow traveller.
I like these posts a lot more than the twitter re-postings, occasionally interesting though they can be.
To change the subject, George Osborne was last matched on Betfair for next Conservative leader at 15.
Extrapolating wildly from my own personal position (liberal Tory Leaver who would certainly have considered voting for Osborne), he's toast. Apologies to anyone who got on at 7/4.
Can anyone explain to me why there is so much money available to back Donald Trump for next Republican nominee at 1.07? That's a 7% return in a month, with the main risk seeming to be that he shuffles off this mortal coil.
There is still talk of plots to throw him overboard...
Yes, Trump for President is 5.2 yet Republican for President is 4.2. The difference is the risk that Trump is chucked at the Convention or doesn't make it until November for whatever reason.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it. She's not my MP, I'd not heard of her until yesterday, it looks like a tragic and horrible one-off by someone who's mentally ill.
Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance?
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
.....Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Tyson, ah the belief in the left that they are good and pure and the right are all evil baby eaters. The belief in this and the use of associated invective such as "lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred", actually tyson inflames the debate.
So just for once, why not drop the student politics of them vs us and consider the possibility that a UK which chooses to govern itself and go down a road that puts voters closer to decisions that affect them, is a much better way to live. After all, one day the UK people may choose a more left wing government - possibly as soon as 2020. At that stage it will be able to bring in those leftie policies free from the EU rules, directives and laws. That sir is what democracy is all about.
I cannot see how that Farage poster yesterday is doing anything other than pandering to racism and xenophobia. And given that the Tory Leave camp know that Turkey is a long, long way from becoming an EU member state, I don't see how their warnings of the country's impending membership is any different.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
I wonder if women may now win this referendum for Remain. While it is sometimes considered unfashionable to say it, women do tend to have greater emotional intelligence than men, in my experience. I suspect the dreadful recent events may tell here. And apparently there are one million more women than men in the UK (a figure that astounded me).
@peter_from_putney I see the Leave price this morning as outstandingly and incomprehensibly good.
What price and from whom? I came out for Leave yesterday and I stand by that. I've said yesterday could swing it for Remain and it could. But I'd still put my shiny sixpence on Leave (and haven't done yet...)
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
Swingback is the only doubt I have, but Leave has led in 9 of the last 11 published polls. Very strong position and the dialling down of campigning in the next few days is better for the side which is leasing.
I wonder if women may now win this referendum for Remain. While it is sometimes considered unfashionable to say it, women do tend to have greater emotional intelligence than men, in my experience. I suspect the dreadful recent events may tell here. And apparently there are one million more women than men in the UK (a figure that astounded me).
Most of the 'excess' are over 70. Payback for childbirth.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
It will shut down the immigration debate completely, at least for the next week. And Leave are a one-trick pony with little else to campaign on that resonates with the public. A good 10-20% of the voters remain undecided. Of course it'll have an effect.
To change the subject, George Osborne was last matched on Betfair for next Conservative leader at 15.
Extrapolating wildly from my own personal position (liberal Tory Leaver who would certainly have considered voting for Osborne), he's toast. Apologies to anyone who got on at 7/4.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
One of the problems is that most of the dialogue since yesterday afternoon is amongst what one could call the chattering classes, broadcast media and younger "twitterati". They would tend to be overwhelmingly for REMAIN. But we do need to consider the Obama example where that visit was presented as a major game changing triumph for REMAIN and reported as such in the broadcast media and yet once the polling went and researched it, it had not benefited REMAIN. Today we just do not know what will be the outcome of yesterday and may be quiet contemplation is the best thing.
@RochdalePioneers You can back Leave right now on Betfair at 2.92 (15/8). Since it has a clear lead in almost all the polls conducted in the last week, this price assumes either (a) that almost all the polls are wrong or (b) that there will be a very sharp move to Remain in the final days.
This may happen but it hardly looks like a slam dunk.
I would have thought that the suspending of campaigning would largely benefit the side that was ahead in the polls - it gives Remain less time to close the gap.
I see you can't leave the scramongering alone. No-doubt the independent Scotland would have considered that it probably couldn't afford under present circumstances to pay for a share of Trident renewal or the coming financial black hole of Hinkley Point, or HS2 or the Heathrow subsidy and would be getting on with building a balanced modern European economy.
Of course if her major trading partner were about to commit an act of national madness and leave Europe then the Scottish Government would be setting up an entire Department to cope with the stampede of companies moving north from London for secure and confirmed access to the marketplace of 500 million people.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
It will shut down the immigration debate completely, at least for the next week. And Leave are a one-trick pony with little else to campaign on that resonates with the public. A good 10-20% of the voters remain undecided. Of course it'll have an effect.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
It will shut down the immigration debate completely, at least for the next week. And Leave are a one-trick pony with little else to campaign on that resonates with the public. A good 10-20% of the voters remain undecided. Of course it'll have an effect.
For those of us who care deeply about controlling our own Parliament, laws, borders et al - it doesn't change anything. Leave is a broad campaign. I think you're underestimating it.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I'm still expecting a Leave win.
I think the events of yesterday will have two effects on the referendum:
1) A partial shutdown of campaigning that will last over the weekend, maybe all the way to polling day. As Leave is almost certainly currently ahead this favours Leave imo.
2) *Some* degree of tainting of Leave by association. I don't think this will extend to swing voters though. I think it will further fire up committed Remainers, but that will have only a slight effect as they would be a high turnout group anyway.
So I think it's no worse than neutral for Leave, which is currently winning.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered.
To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it. She's not my MP, I'd not heard of her until yesterday, it looks like a tragic and horrible one-off by someone who's mentally ill.
Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance?
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
.....Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
I cannot see how that Farage poster yesterday is doing anything other than pandering to racism and xenophobia. And given that the Tory Leave camp know that Turkey is a long, long way from becoming an EU member state, I don't see how their warnings of the country's impending membership is any different.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
I partially agree with you. I think the kindest word you can use for the Tory leave position on Turkey is 'disingenuous'.
However, because the EU is still going through the motions of discussing Turkish accession, that plays to a certain audience. Perhaps racist, perhaps xenephobic, but ultimately very distrustful of the EU's expansionary ambitions.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
.....Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Tyson, ah the belief in the left that they are good and pure and the right are all evil baby eaters. The belief in this and the use of associated invective such as "lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred", actually tyson inflames the debate.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
I don't accept that. Yesterday's poster was Nigel Farage promoting Nigel Farage's UKIP. In this Referendum, you can't prevent being associated with some rum characters - on either side - but that stunt epitomised why I have been a fearsome critic of UKIP and Nigel Farage. Everything I see of the man tells me Farage is in it for Farage. If he buggers up the Leave vote, so be it, as long as Nigel elbows his way onto centre stage.
If Leave just loses, I will blame him for that loss. When it comes to the broader campaign, the man clearly has no idea when to STFU.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
It will shut down the immigration debate completely, at least for the next week. And Leave are a one-trick pony with little else to campaign on that resonates with the public. A good 10-20% of the voters remain undecided. Of course it'll have an effect.
How does it shut down the immigration debate?
The BBC will bring up Jo Cox's death every time it is mentioned
I cannot see how that Farage poster yesterday is doing anything other than pandering to racism and xenophobia. And given that the Tory Leave camp know that Turkey is a long, long way from becoming an EU member state, I don't see how their warnings of the country's impending membership is any different.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
The Turkey issue has been one of the stranger things about this referendum. I was surprised when I saw it mentioned by Leave as I thought it was off the table. What I hadn't anticipated was for the Remain campaign to handle it so badly. Why hasn't Cameron come out and said "as long as I'm PM, Turkey will not be joining the EU"? During his interview with Andrew Neil, George Osborne looked decidedly shifty when asked about Turkey. I wonder if some of the Leavers have got an idea of what's coming up over the next few months and know that Cameron and Osborne aren't in a position to make firm commitments.
I'm afraid leave will still win. The only thing this tragedy means for the campaign is remain has less time to catch up.
The whole campaign from Remain has been based on a general election winning strategy that is focused on winning over the usual 5-10% of swing voters who are motivated by economic arguments and strong leadership. The problem with this strategy is that it forgets underneath that 5-10% is the 60% or so of voters on right and left who vote a way regardless of the economic or leadership merits of whats on offer. These people vote consistently for the same party for a range of reasons but they seem to be immune to arguments that are used effectively in a contest when you only need to win just 5% more than your core vote.
It is clear that Osborne and Cameron think their 2015 winning formula as the key to this referendum also, sadly I think they have missed the fact they need more than swing voters this time.
Previously apolitical people spamming my facebook timeline with Remain propaganda has reached epidemic levels this week
It really is very surprising and bizarre who has been energised and agitated by this referendum.
This (of course statistically insignificant and highly unrepresentative sample) suggests a higher turnout then a GE and a win for Remain. But DYOR...
Beware the curse of social media....if I went by my social media timeline being spammed in the run up to last GE I would have been convinced ed miliband would walk it.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
It will shut down the immigration debate completely, at least for the next week. And Leave are a one-trick pony with little else to campaign on that resonates with the public. A good 10-20% of the voters remain undecided. Of course it'll have an effect.
For those of us who care deeply about controlling our own Parliament, laws, borders et al - it doesn't change anything. Leave is a broad campaign. I think you're underestimating it.
Of course it doesn't change anything for you, or any of the committed Leave voters. But Leave needs to win over a fair few undecideds to win.
I want an honest debate more than I want "my side" to win
One of the problems of the nature of discourse and especially political discourse is defining what we mean by "honesty".
Nobody really knows what will happen whether we vote LEAVE or REMAIN. There's no one from the year 2020 we can ask so all we have is conjecture, analysis or speculation all of which is open to interpretation or misinterpretation.
If you could go back to 1946 and tell someone about the world of 2016 they probably would think you mad. We try to master change, to control it but change ends up controlling us and we are swept downstream like flotsam by its power.
The nature of debate is adversarial and confrontational - if both parties agreed it wouldn't be a debate. Unfortunately, the weakness of most arguments means the only stance is to try and weaken the opposing view rather than promoting your own.
The honesty of this campaign is that neither LEAVE nor REMAIN have offered a scintilla of anything positive about their view. It is all about voting against the other side rather than voting for your side.
Most people are by nature positive but the political process accentuates the negative and that's why we find it frustrating. We perpetuate it here by the slanging, sneering and jibing - we all do it, I've done it. I'm not proud of it. You've done it, I hope you're not proud either.
The problem is the fear overcomes our better nature - on days like this perhaps we get a glimpse of the alternative. It's no good winning if we lose part of ourselves as the price of victory. It shouldn't take the loss of a wife and mother to make us reflect on the way we are and the way we comport ourselves and our discourse.
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember durin......!
I'm not expecting it to change much of anything, bar giving the campaigners a short rest. Many have looked knackered. To be honest, this reminds me very much of the Stephen Timms attack - shocking on a WTF level, but that's about it.......... Why would this change my vote? Or my concerns about the UK's future governance? I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
.... early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Tyson, ah the belief in the left that they are good and pure and the right are all evil baby eaters. The belief in this and the use of associated invective such as "lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred", actually tyson inflames the debate.
So just for once, why not drop the student politics of them vs us and consider the possibility that a UK which chooses to govern itself and go down a road that puts voters closer to decisions that affect them, is a much better way to live. After all, one day the UK people may choose a more left wing government - possibly as soon as 2020. At that stage it will be able to bring in those leftie policies free from the EU rules, directives and laws. That sir is what democracy is all about.
I cannot see how that Farage poster yesterday is doing anything other than pandering to racism and xenophobia. And given that the Tory Leave camp know that Turkey is a long, long way from becoming an EU member state, I don't see how their warnings of the country's impending membership is any different.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
One poster from the unoffical side campaign for LEAVE, which is then heavily advertised for free by REMAIN folk with the media. It generates lots of outrage and adds more publicity to the immigration issue. Do please consider the possibility that it is a monumental mistake of REMAIN people to keep looking and pointing saying "oh look at the anti immigration poster from Farage that's rascist". All they are doing is reminding voters about immigration, another own goal for REMAIN. But as Napoleon said , why interrupt opponents when making mistakes...
I'm not sure how much difference it'll make to the result - I remember during the Paris atrocities UKIP came in alot on the exchanges in the Oldham BE. Alot of people including some very smart cookies thought it would massively boost UKIP but in the end Labour ran up a huge score there. Now this isn't the same (It is actually here as opposed to being 1000 miles away) but Oldham was nice in the sense that the terrorists there didn't seem to change anyone's vote here !
I've been really quite revolted by those who've sought to weaponise her death for their own ends. Twitter was beyond awful - and far too many professional commentators have joined in. The lady was barely cold.
.....Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
Tyson, ah the belief in the left that they are good and pure and the right are all evil baby eaters. The belief in this and the use of associated invective such as "lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred", actually tyson inflames the debate.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
I don't accept that. Yesterday's poster was Nigel Farage promoting Nigel Farage's UKIP. In this Referendum, you can't prevent being associated with some rum characters - on either side - but that stunt epitomised why I have been a fearsome critic of UKIP and Nigel Farage. Everything I see of the man tells me Farage is in it for Farage. If he buggers up the Leave vote, so be it, as long as Nigel elbows his way onto centre stage.
If Leave just loses, I will blame him for that loss. When it comes to the broader campaign, the man clearly has no idea when to STFU.
You think Farage wants to win this?
It'd mean he'd become an irrelevancy. He cares much more about himself than he does his own country. His ego is gigantic.
It wouldn't surprise me if he stages a press interview or platform with Trump on the eve of poll, and fucks the whole thing up for us.
Very few predicting a LEAVE win on here this morning, in fact absolutely no one, despite all that recent polling evidence.
I am. I think Leave will win. I don't think the murder yesterday will affect anything and neither should it. I'd like to think the vile Farage poster will get some people thinking, but I imagine minds are mostly made up now. We're voting to pull out.
I agree with you insofar as, unlike a number of PBers, I don't believe yesterday's events will have a major impact, perhaps 1% or thereabouts maximum - as you say most people have already made up their minds and millions, like me, have already voted. What sways me towards a REMAIN outcome is the simple fact that the betting fraternity en masse very seldom get things wrong and they are going for a small but virtually unanimous win for REMAIN. Who can remember when the bookies were last wrong to this extent? ........ Oh, wait ......
Comments
However, she could be a fantasist or mistaken. Or it was an unrelated peeping tom or something. Or perhaps post-event undercover surveillance of an address.
An odd report, nevertheless.
My vote for Remain is not about Brussels. I have seen up close how EU institutions work and I have dealt with many people on the gravy train. I hate it and would destroy it all if I could. I am not Remain to support those institutions or centralisation. I am Remain because I think Leave will do significant damage to those who can afford it least. I think it will lead to lower public spending, less redistribution and a consolidation of the power of the wealthy elite that run this country. I get why people are voting Leave. I just don't think it will produce the results they want. And while I understand the temporary lift cocking a snoop at those in power will give, in the end I see it as an act of self-harm.
I met someone yesterday who told me the EU were centralising pensions and she was damned if she was going to finance the French retiring at 55 when she'll have to wait till she's nearly 70. I asked her where she'd heard this and she told me from a tax lawyer.
1. There will be a funeral at some point, presumably in the next week. I think that will be seen as influencing the vote in some way.
2. We urgently need a debate about the nature of our debate, and it would help democracy if we had it before we vote.
I would like to see the Boris and the PM, head to head, not about Brexit, but about the way both campaigns have been handled and what might be done differently.
It was mentioned briefly yesterday, if it's illegal to lie in a soap commercial, why is it legal to lie to voters?
However, this note Is a personal observation rather than any results. The level of grassroots campaigning is totally different. In Indy ref it was huge. In this campaign it is small. This is best reflected in the total absence of window posters in most areas. However even the most active leave
campaigning say around the Farage bus is generating minor crowds compared with the huge and often spontaneous rallies of the Yes campaign. I would be astonished if the turnout across the UK was anywhere near the 85% of Scotland in 2014.
Finally this European campaign is much more bitter. At one level this might be because in this referendum both sides are fighting basically a scaremongering campaign. In Scotland it was only the No campaign. There is precious little hope in either side of this referendum. However, it would be naive not to understand that this campaign is only about one thing at grassroots level and that is immigration. Leavers on this site may debate sovereignty, trade, EU bureaucracy etc but at grassroots level it is only about immigration. It would be difficult to have a pleasant campaign about that subject and this is not a pleasant campaign.
One final thought on the tragedy in Yorkshire and the death of that splendid young MP. Will any of the journalists today writing such lovely things about Jo Cox ever reflect on the demonising of all elected representatives which is the meat and drink of virtually all of the printed press. Most MPs across the parties are very far from the self serving chancers which is the normal portrayal and very much nicer. And most of us if asked to choose between having a drink with them or a Mail or Sunday Times journalist would choose the elected rep any day of the week. That doesn't make the journalists in these papers responsible for the actions of some lone madman. It just makes them hypocrites.
I think
Actually bugger its a Satsuma
Be it Orlando, or Leeds, the real "fanatics" will use it for political ends. By doing so, they show themselves up. You can only make a measured judgement when the facts emerge and that can take weeks.
Mateen does seem to have been "disturbed" and Mair may well turn out to be the same. Jo Cox wanted a kinder world, and I'd suggest everyone does. However a very small minority believe that hate is the way to achieve it. And some of those who race to judgement are the real haters.
As has been said earlier, the majority would settle for a revised EU based on a trading community. That is not on offer and seemingly never will be, so we're forced into a binary judgement.
Whatever the result, even if it's by one vote, we should accept it and move on together. That doesn't mean abandoning the possibility of changes later on, though.
http://www.lbc.co.uk/jo-cox-witness-says-no-one-shouted-britain-first-132375
I wouldn't be angry about a Remain win; not even annoyed. On balance, taking all selfishness out of it and seeing the big, big picture, it's probably the right shout. It just bugs me that if I voted Remain I'd personally be giving my mandate to it. Uck.
When you think about it, the idea of the EU should be a great thing. It should be getting 80% of the popular vote. The fact the vote is close just shows how crap it and the people running it is.
Oh well. Off to work!
http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2016/04/european-pensions-regulator-steps-back-radical-funding-proposals/
If you notice, many of us pro remainers here are not making any political capital. But that is how the soft left, particularly the liberal left behave (also the soft right). Much like the Democrats in the states- it is just not in their DNA to be that nasty.
The right fight dirtier- t'was ever thus. Look at the amount of ad hominem attacks people like Roger and I get here. Look at the right wing papers- the Mail, Express, the Sun. I tell my wife not to read them because they are just corrosive, they eat you from the inside.
If there was a game changer yesterday, it was Farage's sickening poster. I absolutely believe that the Out campaign is fundamentally one long, shrill, overpowering, obscene, racist dog whistle. The similarities to the nihilistic politics of the 1930's are just so evident- the root problems today are economic inequality but let's blame those at the bottom of the pile, the migrants for it.
Next week is fundamentally important for me...I'll know in the early hours of Friday morning whether the UK is still trying to remain a tolerant and liberal country despite all the turbulence in the word, or are we going to take a lurch rightwards into the politics of division, fear and hatred.
1. Because of the nature of her death, it is likely that it will be a while before Jo Cox's body is released for burial. I would expect any funeral to be after the Referendum has been held.
2. You really want Cameron to justify Project Fear in a debate with Boris? That's bold...
Funnily enough, Jo Cox's murder might influence peoples' attitudes, as they realise that politicians are generally trying to do the best for people.
Global government debt is around $60 trillion (that's a lot, but global GDP is around ~75 trillion, so it's a large scale version of the UK's current position, however, it's incredibly skewed). Global corporate debt is worse. There are increasing numbers of companies that don't generate the cash to cover their funding obligations.
Personal debt completes the trifecta. I haven't found a good source for global personal debt, so we can only look to the UK. UK personal debt is ~£1.5 trillion (roughly the same as the national debt).
To digress a moment: UK household budgets are often incredibly fragile: 10 million families have no savings at all. The average savings are (depending on where you go for the numbers) £5-6k.
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
Qualifying and race start times are 2pm (UK time).
Despite all calls for reticence and pause for mourning, the Remain Campaign and its many MSM supporters are going to rub Jo Cox' murder in Leavers faces; one way or another.
I posted the above around 6 am this morning.
I was right, The BBC for one, can't leave the subject alone.
Not really.
I am one of the "privileged elite" who will be probably be just fine. Globalisation has worked in my favour so far. I have worked in other countries. I buy cheap goods made in China and the Ukranian checkout assistant in my local supermarket is really good at her job. The eastern European who cuts my hair likewise. I haven't had to queue behind immigrants at A&E with a cough.
I will be sad if we leave, but probably not the end of My World.
But I do think political debate in our Country is in crisis, and I would like mature grown up politicians to talk about it.
Nigel Farage's Nazi tribute poster yesterday was disgusting, and I know Boris is not "officially" campaigning with Farage (although others are), and while they did not publicly endorse it yesterday, neither did any official Lave campaigner condemn it either.
I think we would be better served if politicians of all stripes had done so, even if Farage is deemed to be a fellow traveller.
A friend of mine was told she was going to get raped, jews were spat on and songs sung that they should be put in ovens.
The whole atmosphere was explosive. Attendees were told not to wear their pass outside of the conference. I worn mine and a police officer told me it was causing a disturbance, me having it on display.
It wasnt only the hard left there last year.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-36557092
The fact that even in this post you're likening the Out campaign to the NSDP shows that you are entirely lacking in self awareness, a sense of proportion or even a knowledge of history.
The UK is a prosperous, attractive country with a long and proud democratic tradition. It is merely deciding whether it wishes to stay within an organisation that has evolved a long way from its original purpose.
To assert that this is an apocalyptic inflection point presaging some kind of neo-fascist police state is hysterical bollocks. Please stop.
Summary executions have no place in a decent society.
If the Shias can behave, of course...
I'd be surprised if ultimately they were proved to be very far from the actual result, which therefore continues to make Ladbrokes' "Less than 1% margin of victory for EITHER side" (i.e. between 49.5% - 50.5% whichever side wins) look interesting, still on offer at 10/1.
This looks like fair value to me, limited to a very modest punt, even if it means spending a stressful period over a number of hours, waiting for the results to roll in from every area of the UK.
DYOR.
Mr. Fenster, a danger may be that as ISIS/Daesh becomes weaker and ceases to be a threat, the coalition against them becomes more concerned carving up the spoils or seeing one another as graver threats.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jo-cox-shooting-schoolgirl-saw-8210088
Good morning all. I talked about superstition briefly yesterday. The markets are in a superstitious mood. Don't worry, I'm not about to go all hunchman on you
Global government debt is around $60 trillion (that's a lot, but global GDP is around ~75 trillion, so it's a large scale version of the UK's current position, however, it's incredibly skewed). Global corporate debt is worse. There are increasing numbers of companies that don't generate the cash to cover their funding obligations.
Personal debt completes the trifecta. I haven't found a good source for global personal debt, so we can only look to the UK. UK personal debt is ~£1.5 trillion (roughly the same as the national debt).
To digress a moment: UK household budgets are often incredibly fragile: 10 million families have no savings at all. The average savings are (depending on where you go for the numbers) £5-6k.
At some point, this has to unwind, whether that's gently or not. We don't know what event is going to be the new Lehmann Brothers.
Japan's repeated attempts to kickstart its economy, China's deleveraging, Brexit, Greece, Italy or even France could be the straw that breaks the camel's back. For the developing world, you can argue that the uncertainty over Brexit is a help - it's stopped Yellen from raising the federal rate.
In summary, I don't think anyone understands the global economy in toto. It's just too complex.
I agree with a lot of that but the underlying theme is that we want to spend (and in most cases have spent) tomorrow's money today. In many cases we have done so claiming to believe that "investing" today will mean that there is even more money tomorrow but the truth is that this is ultimately driven by greed and selfishness.
The ENRON economy.
The Smartest Guys in the Room is a book every single PM and President should read before taking over the reins.
The parallels between ENRON's economic management and Gordon Brown's are eye-watering.
A significant minority of Cons right wingers and potential Kippers wanted a referendum. They campaigned and put pressure on the political parties for it and, in order to win the general election, Dave acquiesced. No different from any other pressure group - look at the commitment to repeal the Hunting Act.
Had he not acquiesced, those who wanted a referendum would have probably voted UKIP (and felt disenfranchised), Dave would have lost the election, and the whole issue would have been moot.
As ever, and I find it surprising to have to repeat it so often on this site, politics is the art of achieving the best outcome possible, not the best possible outcome.
And now I must away, to buy some easy-peelers.
I've talked for several years now about two economies. There is a paper economy talked about in Osborne's budget forecasts (the ones that get heavily revised so often that we needed 4 budgets in a year) - the one where we have recovered from 2008 and everything is rosy. And then there is the real economy where CEO of Sainsbury's expresses concern that the paper growth in disposable income hasn't filtered through to grocery which is still in its 2008 decline.
People are force-fed the paper economy but live in the real economy. On paper things are great even in London. In reality "great" is a starter home costing £450k or 65% of income spent on rent. The media and most politicians spin the story that things are good - the endless property programmes, the "exciting" news about the new iPhone which looks like a 3 year old one. But then they shine a light underneath the stone - the repossession programmes, the endless benefits porn. Last night a programme about slum landlords and slum tenants - apparently the rentier class model doesn't work for either when you scratch beneath the surface.
This is beyond party politics. This is the result of all parties pushing broadly the same policy platform which is working for fewer and fewer people. Whilst left-leaning people like myself have some ideas for change, as do right-leaning people, we all get squashed by the centre establishment TINA lunatics - the Blairites, Cameroons, Cleggs. The "moderate" wing of the Labour and Tory parties, the "reformist" wing of a party I think were called the LibDems but I think they're extinct now - they aren't moderate. They exude one platform one ideology and no dissent. You want totalitarianism - the elective dictatorship - well its right here.
What are we going to do about it? In Labour we overthrew this "moderate" group and tried to talk about alternative policy ideas. The establishment snipe and undermine and want to wipe out this "dissent" forever. Cameron is similarly dismissive of his own critics - despite the "extremist" positions being entirely representative of the majority of most party members.
A British polity with the traditional parties advocating modernised updates of their traditional platforms is required - a restoration of status quo ante before the establishment bought our parties and mutated them to serve their purpose not ours.
This Referendum has been fought in the gutter whilst looking for the trapdoor to the sewer. Neither side can claim any high ground. The worst thing is, whoever wins in this tight contest, their moral authority will be questioned. "You only won because of that bloody [ ] ....." All this grief risks having settled little.
As I've said before, I would like Leave to win because it will force us to confront a range of issues - about what we want our nation, our politics and our politicians to be.
@JohnM
"tyson, you have repeatedly called people on here racist, xenephobe and fascists. i'll even go and dig out the posts for you if you've conveniently forgotten.
the fact that even in this post you're likening the out campaign to the nsdp shows that you are entirely lacking in self awareness, a sense of proportion or even a knowledge of history.
the uk is a prosperous, attractive country with a long and proud democratic tradition. it is merely deciding whether it wishes to stay within an organisation that has evolved a long way from its original purpose.
to assert that this is an apocalyptic inflection point presaging some kind of neo-fascist police state is hysterical bollocks. please stop"
I've never individually called anyone a racist here- I've called the whole out campaign as racist- that's different, and that is something I believe. The fact that individuals take that personally is up to them. You could call Remainers simpletons....I wouldn't take that as an ad hominem attack on me.
Make no mistake- an Out Vote represents a huge lurch rightwards for the UK however you try and gloss it as....yes, we are simply extricating from an organisation. Why are all the extreme right, the facist right, football thugs and so forth so motivated by this one issue.
The Greeks are often lambasted for their behaviour, but I think the evidence is that in the post-2008 era of cheap money, everyone has simply filled their boots, and are now collectively shitting themselves at the thought that interest rates might rise to their historical norms.
In my loonier moments, I think the market throws tantrums much like a toddler does at every sign that this might actually be the case - primarily in the hope that the regulators back down
So just for once, why not drop the student politics of them vs us and consider the possibility that a UK which chooses to govern itself and go down a road that puts voters closer to decisions that affect them, is a much better way to live. After all, one day the UK people may choose a more left wing government - possibly as soon as 2020. At that stage it will be able to bring in those leftie policies free from the EU rules, directives and laws. That sir is what democracy is all about.
https://twitter.com/jackschickler/status/743705301916913665
I'd also add that it would offend my sense of decorum to debate the impact further. I'm quite keen on Brexit, but a young woman lies dead and her husband and children are now bereft. I'm recently widowed myself. I know how they must feel.
The difference is the risk that Trump is chucked at the Convention or doesn't make it until November for whatever reason.
May well be looking at the not classified and total number of unclassified markets. Suspect the safety car odds will be too short to tempt.
Weather should be dry throughout, I think.
The vast majority of people voting Leave are not racists or xenophobes, but it is pretty clear that the Leave campaigns think there is mileage in appealing to those who are.
This may happen but it hardly looks like a slam dunk.
I would have thought that the suspending of campaigning would largely benefit the side that was ahead in the polls - it gives Remain less time to close the gap.
I see you can't leave the scramongering alone. No-doubt the independent Scotland would have considered that it probably couldn't afford under present circumstances to pay for a share of Trident renewal or the coming financial black hole of Hinkley Point, or HS2 or the Heathrow subsidy and would be getting on with building a balanced modern European economy.
Of course if her major trading partner were about to commit an act of national madness and leave Europe then the Scottish Government would be setting up an entire Department to cope with the stampede of companies moving north from London for secure and confirmed access to the marketplace of 500 million people.
I think the events of yesterday will have two effects on the referendum:
1) A partial shutdown of campaigning that will last over the weekend, maybe all the way to polling day. As Leave is almost certainly currently ahead this favours Leave imo.
2) *Some* degree of tainting of Leave by association. I don't think this will extend to swing voters though. I think it will further fire up committed Remainers, but that will have only a slight effect as they would be a high turnout group anyway.
So I think it's no worse than neutral for Leave, which is currently winning.
However, because the EU is still going through the motions of discussing Turkish accession, that plays to a certain audience. Perhaps racist, perhaps xenephobic, but ultimately very distrustful of the EU's expansionary ambitions.
It really is very surprising and bizarre who has been energised and agitated by this referendum.
This (of course statistically insignificant and highly unrepresentative sample) suggests a higher turnout then a GE and a win for Remain. But DYOR...
If Leave just loses, I will blame him for that loss. When it comes to the broader campaign, the man clearly has no idea when to STFU.
The whole campaign from Remain has been based on a general election winning strategy that is focused on winning over the usual 5-10% of swing voters who are motivated by economic arguments and strong leadership. The problem with this strategy is that it forgets underneath that 5-10% is the 60% or so of voters on right and left who vote a way regardless of the economic or leadership merits of whats on offer. These people vote consistently for the same party for a range of reasons but they seem to be immune to arguments that are used effectively in a contest when you only need to win just 5% more than your core vote.
It is clear that Osborne and Cameron think their 2015 winning formula as the key to this referendum also, sadly I think they have missed the fact they need more than swing voters this time.
Nobody really knows what will happen whether we vote LEAVE or REMAIN. There's no one from the year 2020 we can ask so all we have is conjecture, analysis or speculation all of which is open to interpretation or misinterpretation.
If you could go back to 1946 and tell someone about the world of 2016 they probably would think you mad. We try to master change, to control it but change ends up controlling us and we are swept downstream like flotsam by its power.
The nature of debate is adversarial and confrontational - if both parties agreed it wouldn't be a debate. Unfortunately, the weakness of most arguments means the only stance is to try and weaken the opposing view rather than promoting your own.
The honesty of this campaign is that neither LEAVE nor REMAIN have offered a scintilla of anything positive about their view. It is all about voting against the other side rather than voting for your side.
Most people are by nature positive but the political process accentuates the negative and that's why we find it frustrating. We perpetuate it here by the slanging, sneering and jibing - we all do it, I've done it. I'm not proud of it. You've done it, I hope you're not proud either.
The problem is the fear overcomes our better nature - on days like this perhaps we get a glimpse of the alternative. It's no good winning if we lose part of ourselves as the price of victory. It shouldn't take the loss of a wife and mother to make us reflect on the way we are and the way we comport ourselves and our discourse.
It'd mean he'd become an irrelevancy. He cares much more about himself than he does his own country. His ego is gigantic.
It wouldn't surprise me if he stages a press interview or platform with Trump on the eve of poll, and fucks the whole thing up for us.
My anger is at Farage.
What sways me towards a REMAIN outcome is the simple fact that the betting fraternity en masse very seldom get things wrong and they are going for a small but virtually unanimous win for REMAIN.
Who can remember when the bookies were last wrong to this extent? ........ Oh, wait ......