Unfortunately the claim about war with our continental neighbours is rather misleading. It is 71 years since we were at war with Germany.
But if, as your posting mentions, one went back 200 years that would put you to 1816. That is one year into a 99 year long period where we were not at war with France, Germany or Spain. So really the attempt to describe our current lack of war with our neighbours as exceptional and further to equate it with our EU membership fails even on the most basic historical level.
EH? In 1816 we'd been at war on and off with France, and at times other European countries, for nearly twenty years. And then spent the rest of the century fearing war - so much so in the 1860s that the Government launched what remains, in real terms, the biggest ever public spending project, covering the south of England in fortifications in readiness for a French invasion that never came, France ending up at war with Germany (Prussia) instead. And by the end of the century we'd be building battleships like there's no tomorrow in an arms race against Germany....
Clearly you are unable to read. I said that in 1816 we were one year into a 99 year period where we were not at war with Germany, France or Spain. That is a fact.
I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed around immigration it can be used without outright rejection. Why are Leave taking about hypothetical Turks rather than real Poles ? Because Turks are Muslims. What have we all seen on TV over the last 2 years ? About 2 million largely Muslim and entirely unplanned immigrants who appeared to have just ' walked in '. It seems to me finally mentioning on a poster what this is all about 7 days from polling day is just like a good composer coming towards the end of a symphony. As for it being Farage... well it offers Leave plausible deniability with no real reduction in press coverage for it. I'm not convinced it's a mistake for Leave at all. It seems completely consistent with their strategy. The polls say the strategy is working so far.
Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.
Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.
They could seal the deal with the WWC (but haven't they done that already?) - yet lose liberal LEAVERS like me (they probably won't, but- hmmm)
Yep. I know some on here cannot see the likeness to Nazi propaganda, but it is there as plain as day.
Well I went "ugh" when Galloway was wheeled out. There is a real issue with migration from the Middle East and other failed states and the EU and Merkel in particular have been lamentable in the way they are dealing with it. Leave is not an answer to this - or not a complete answer - but the Leave campaign are entitled to raise the issue. The question is the tone they use. Farage I think often gets the tone wrong.
But I do think that some of those who criticise the tone e.g. as in this poster may also want to stop the subject of immigration being raised at all. And I don't think it should be. It is precisely the attempt to make subjects off limits that pushes the more unscrupulous into using memes which are far nastier. We owe it to ourselves to have a proper sensible debate on immigration not to shy away from it just because some are incapable of controlling themselves.
I wouldn't normally link to articles concerning my little world, but an interview published today with the president of the European Patent Office on what Brexit will mean for an EU patent regime had an interesting titbit in it about how others see our referendum:
Germany has already notified that it will ratify this year and we have four or five others that are in the pipeline. So, depending on the UK, we will be ready to deliver the first unitary patent early next year,” said Battistelli. “But it really depends on our dear friends in UKIP,” he joked.
Whatever people here may think, abroad UKIP is seen as a primary player in this referendum. People see UKIP posters, hear UKIP spokesmen and think that they are driving the debate. This will affect the way that this country is regarded once we do vote to leave. And it will not be helpful.
With less than a week to go and with Lead ahead in the polls, these final few days were suppose to be focused relentlessly on the economic risks of leaving. That is Remains only card worth playing. Yet this week we have only had the chaotic intervention of Osborne, which seemed to fizzle out in half a day and then radio silence. Tragic events in this country and abroad have ensured that no one is talking about the economic risks of leaving the EU. This was the week for the big Remain push, led by non-Tory figures, that might have hauled back Leaves lead. It hasn't happened.
The only reporting of the Labour big guns was of splits about immigration between Tom Watson and others.
What's happening on the ground for LabourIn? I've no idea. We've had a smattering of local reports here which vary from very good to pretty awful.
In the final week, surely it's all GOTV - and reinforcing the message to those most likely to support you.
Hypocrite. You were just accusing Farage of calling for violence
No I didn't.
This is a perfect example of what much of this thread has been about.
DanSmith said "whilst I wasn't expecting an MP to be shot dead, I'm not surprised some nutter has crossed the line into direct action, it's been coming for a while now."
I posted a Tweet containing a link to a video of Nigel Farage saying "violence is the next step"
I did not say Nigel Farage was calling for it.
The original Tweet contained the words "he got his wish", I said they were deliberately inflammatory, but the substance (Nigel Farage saying violence is the next step) was relevant to the post.
If you can't follow the logic, at least refrain from accusing me of motives that don't exist
I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed around immigration it can be used without outright rejection. Why are Leave taking about hypothetical Turks rather than real Poles ? Because Turks are Muslims. What have we all seen on TV over the last 2 years ? About 2 million largely Muslim and entirely unplanned immigrants who appeared to have just ' walked in '. It seems to me finally mentioning on a poster what this is all about 7 days from polling day is just like a good composer coming towards the end of a symphony. As for it being Farage... well it offers Leave plausible deniability with no real reduction in press coverage for it. I'm not convinced it's a mistake for Leave at all. It seems completely consistent with their strategy. The polls say the strategy is working so far.
Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.
Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.
Interesting though that there has not been quite as much fuss by the Left about similarly anti-semitic cartoons, tweets and the rest sent by some of their own - see, for instance, some of the really vile stuff sent to Luciana Berger MP or by various Labour councillors and others. There is - regrettably - a tendency to see the motes in others' eyes and ignore the beams in one's own.
I wouldn't normally link to articles concerning my little world, but an interview published today with the president of the European Patent Office on what Brexit will mean for an EU patent regime had an interesting titbit in it about how others see our referendum:
Germany has already notified that it will ratify this year and we have four or five others that are in the pipeline. So, depending on the UK, we will be ready to deliver the first unitary patent early next year,” said Battistelli. “But it really depends on our dear friends in UKIP,” he joked.
Whatever people here may think, abroad UKIP is seen as a primary player in this referendum. People see UKIP posters, hear UKIP spokesmen and think that they are driving the debate. This will affect the way that this country is regarded once we do vote to leave. And it will not be helpful.
Nonsense. EU leaders know perfectly well that half the Tory Party is for Leave, that. Boris/Gove/Stuart/Leadsom are at the centre and there's a strong sovereignty case being advocated by the official Vote Leave campaign.
And with that I must log off. Everything is depressing me today.
At least in a week's time (pretty much exactly now) we will know the result and this will be over.
whilst I wasn't expecting an MP to be shot dead, I'm not surprised some nutter has crossed the line into direct action, it's been coming for a while now.
Here is a Tweet that I think is relevant to your point. Although I do think the wording is deliberately inflammatory, the substance remains.
@junayed_: Last month Nigel Farage said that violence on the streets was the “next step”. Today, he got his wish. https://t.co/CFHq34GDlb
Be honest Scott, you got your wish. God help you.
I think you should withdraw this comment. It's totally unacceptable in my opinion. Your class (or lack of it) is shining right through!
There is no need to veto Turkey entering because the reasons we don't want Turkey in the EU at the moment are exactly the same reasons why they will not get in. The EU has strict rules on human rights, freedom of the press, religious freedom, political freedom and treatment of minorities. Not only is Turkey nowhere near meeting any of these, it is not even trying and is actually moving purposefully in the other direction.
If the Leave campaign were as honest as this I doubt Brexit would be close to winning.
If the Leave campaign had chosen the EFTA route they would already be in an unassailable position.
But as I have said, both campaigns deserve to lose.
I wouldn't normally link to articles concerning my little world, but an interview published today with the president of the European Patent Office on what Brexit will mean for an EU patent regime had an interesting titbit in it about how others see our referendum:
Germany has already notified that it will ratify this year and we have four or five others that are in the pipeline. So, depending on the UK, we will be ready to deliver the first unitary patent early next year,” said Battistelli. “But it really depends on our dear friends in UKIP,” he joked.
Whatever people here may think, abroad UKIP is seen as a primary player in this referendum. People see UKIP posters, hear UKIP spokesmen and think that they are driving the debate. This will affect the way that this country is regarded once we do vote to leave. And it will not be helpful.
I don't disagree. However, by and large that's because of how the European media has chosen to portray it.
To follow up on a general theme this morning, I like the argument that the Information Economy has been replaced with it's unlovely cousin the Attention Economy. There's far more information produced than can be read or comprehended. None of us can necessarily keep up with all that's happening even within our core competencies. That trend is longstanding and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Content creators are therefore competing to capture a fairly static market. We each have only one brain. The best way to do that is to switch from intellectual arguments to emotional ones, as humans, en masse, respond to those. We're all familiar with clickbait. What we're seeing now is the rise of political clickbait.
Given the pressure on content creators, we're not likely to see a return to sober analysis and investigative reporting. Which is a great pity.
I wouldn't normally link to articles concerning my little world, but an interview published today with the president of the European Patent Office on what Brexit will mean for an EU patent regime had an interesting titbit in it about how others see our referendum:
Germany has already notified that it will ratify this year and we have four or five others that are in the pipeline. So, depending on the UK, we will be ready to deliver the first unitary patent early next year,” said Battistelli. “But it really depends on our dear friends in UKIP,” he joked.
Whatever people here may think, abroad UKIP is seen as a primary player in this referendum. People see UKIP posters, hear UKIP spokesmen and think that they are driving the debate. This will affect the way that this country is regarded once we do vote to leave. And it will not be helpful.
But it is I'm afraid yet another example of how the elites don't get it. Ukip got 13% of the vote at the general election. Most people don't like them and don't like Farage. There's a reason why he's been kept on the sidelines by the leave campaign. They've got to stop confusing symptoms with causes.
The only reporting of the Labour big guns was of splits about immigration between Tom Watson and others.
What's happening on the ground for LabourIn? I've no idea. We've had a smattering of local reports here which vary from very good to pretty awful.
In the final week, surely it's all GOTV - and reinforcing the message to those most likely to support you.
The Labour campaign has been going strong with almost no reportage as the media is focused on Tories attacking Tories. The Alan Johnson battlebus has toured the country getting local press coverage as it goes. Gordon Brown is doing the same giving speeches. Activist teams in target seats have been door knocking for weeks and running street stalls and the like. When the media starts waffling about "Labour voters don't know your policy" when no coverage at all has been given is it any surprise?
But as I understand it the result of all this has not been as expected. MPs were sent home last week to campaign through to the referendum. We know where the Labour votes are from recent elections but with sizeable numbers voting to Leave I know of Labour teams targeting Tory areas hoping to find more Remain votes....
Unfortunately the claim about war with our continental neighbours is rather misleading. It is 71 years since we were at war with Germany.
But if, as your posting mentions, one went back 200 years that would put you to 1816. That is one year into a 99 year long period where we were not at war with France, Germany or Spain. So really the attempt to describe our current lack of war with our neighbours as exceptional and further to equate it with our EU membership fails even on the most basic historical level.
EH? In 1816 we'd been at war on and off with France, and at times other European countries, for nearly twenty years. And then spent the rest of the century fearing war - so much so in the 1860s that the Government launched what remains, in real terms, the biggest ever public spending project, covering the south of England in fortifications in readiness for a French invasion that never came, France ending up at war with Germany (Prussia) instead. And by the end of the century we'd be building battleships like there's no tomorrow in an arms race against Germany....
Clearly you are unable to read. I said that in 1816 we were one year into a 99 year period where we were not at war with Germany, France or Spain. That is a fact.
But a fact that is wholly irrelevant to the argument. The blogger was comparing modern Europe with its warring past. You counter his argument by citing a period where fear of war in the UK dominated things to the extent that more money, as a proportion of public spending, was diverted into defences than ever before or since, and where other European countries were often at war? Paris was even enemy occupied for a time. Either you are being pedantic beyond belief or you understand neither history nor the point of the blog.
'The EU has strict rules on human rights, freedom of the press, religious freedom, political freedom and treatment of minorities. Not only is Turkey nowhere near meeting any of these, it is not even trying and is actually moving purposefully in the other direction.'
I guess the concern is the past performance of the EU,which had strict rules on budget deficits et al for any country wanting to join the Euro. As we know many countries that were allowed to join were nowhere near meeting any of the basic criteria laid down by the EU but still joined.
What is driving this drift? I haven't seen any new polling.
Sentiment. Most people who are betting want Remain to win.
Hmmm... The whole point about why political betting in general, and politicalbetting.com in particular is taken seriously is that punters are pretty hard nosed about where they put their money. I must admit I have been at a loss to explain the variance of the betting versus the polls. Perhaps punters don't switch unless a clear trend is established, perhaps they take a more critical view of the polls. Either way I think the betting is an accurate view of the way the Punters expect things to go. I'm just not sure why, but will be very interested to see the result v the polls.
To your first point, somebody sent me a link to this. It's a blog by someone else. I agree with the sentiments, and I post it here so others can read it and judge for themselves. I don't expect to shift any votes. If you went back in time 200 years and told people living in Britain that not only would we not be at war with either France or Germany or Spain in 2016 but they would actually be our allies, they would be amazed.
I understand that for some older people the idea of going back to the 1950s appeals.
But part of the reason the 1950s appeal is that you were young then, and it’s always better when you are young. And the 1950s were always going to look better because of what came before – rationing, bombs falling onto your neighbourhoods, a war in Europe.
The problem with the blogger's argument that old people are romanticising the 1950s is that you can turn it round the other way and it would make just as much sense. If that cohort were strongly pro-remain, commentators and journalists would say that of course people who lived through the war welcome the EU uniting the continental powers; they might even remember Churchill advocating it.
Growing up, no one had a good word for the fifties. I was born five years after rationing was ended. The 1950s were shit, so I'm sorry if I don't buy the argument.
We've had discussions on here before about life in the olden days (primarily the 70s as that's probably the median demographic for posters here). It was, in many ways, rubbish. However:
- free university education. - single income families could realistically own a home & raise a family - high cultural cohesion (a trivial example: everyone watched Morecambe & Wise) - free sport on telly - high inflation (great for making debts go away) - decent social mobility
So, not entirely devoid of merit.
I was too young to vote in 1975. I'm grateful for the opportunity to vote now.
My impression is that people tend to apply the rose tints to the time when they were in their twenties: a function of getting older, perhaps. Anyone who's read David Kynaston's (excellent) books on post-WW2 Britain, would struggle with concept of the (pre-Beatles) era being some sort of utopia but if you were growing up then and looking back, the simpler certainties (including ones future being unknown) has appeal.
Looking at your list of the 1970s, the same applies. Yet when I look at pictures from the time (or read Sandbrook), my key adjectives are grubby and tired.
I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed around immigration it can be used without outright rejection. Why are Leave taking about hypothetical Turks rather than real Poles ? Because It seems completely consistent with their strategy. The polls say the strategy is working so far.
Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.
Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.
They could seal the deal with the WWC (but haven't they done that already?) - yet lose liberal LEAVERS like me (they probably won't, but- hmmm)
Yep. I know some on here cannot see the likeness to Nazi propaganda, but it is there as plain as day.
Well I went "ugh" when Galloway was wheeled out. There is a real issue with migration from the Middle East and other failed states and the EU and Merkel in particular have been lamentable in the way they are dealing with it. Leave is not an answer to this - or not a complete answer - but the Leave campaign are entitled to raise the issue. The question is the tone they use. Farage I think often gets the tone wrong.
But I do think that some of those who criticise the tone e.g. as in this poster may also want to stop the subject of immigration being raised at all. And I don't think it should be. It is precisely the attempt to make subjects off limits that pushes the more unscrupulous into using memes which are far nastier. We owe it to ourselves to have a proper sensible debate on immigration not to shy away from it just because some are incapable of controlling themselves.
We have been debating immigration for the last fifteen years at least as far as I can tell. I can't remember when the first right wing newspaper published a column about how nobody is allowed to talk about immigration, but it must have been in the very early part of this century. Whether we have had a sensible debate is a different matter. One side cries racism, the other cries you hate the white working class and only want cheap nannies.
Of course, in the real world, the Scottish government would have billions less of whatever currency they'd be using and millions of Scots would be suffering as a result. Sometimes hope = lies, and the experts are actually right. The Scottish independence referendum was one such example. I hope that I am proved wrong and that this referendum is not another similar case.
You seem to be making a claim that because some people in Better Together (not all it should be said) indicated the oil price would fall that this means all of Better Together's claims were true. This seems to be a blatant and shallow straw man argument.
The debate in the Independence Referendum was never about oil. It was about two things. The fiscal framework that Scotland would have achieved in leaving the UK and whether the threats from Westminster that they would sabotage an Independent Scotland would have been followed through on.
The debate remains unresolved. For Yes Scotland, the answer is that Scotland was and is in a position to cancel huge swathes of unnecessary spending and to limit their exposure to UK debt and that the remaining UK would choose not to sabotage Scotland. This is not unreasonable but it is certainly not concluded either way. The example of Ireland, where the UK not only bailed it out quite willingly but refused to put even the most basic conditions on that bail out suggest that Better Together were the ones who were lying.
What is the meaning of this deliberate misspelling of racist (waycist) I often see on here? It's only used by the hard-right posters.
It's slightly sinister. Can someone explain?
Because "racist" is a term banded about and thrown at people from the left to anyone who has any concerns about immigration. No doubt Poly will not hesitate to call me a waycist for supporting Brexit because apperently we are all "little Englanders". The metropolitian elite have so overused it that they have belittled it. a shame really since xenophobia is a really serious issue.
It's hard to see how Boris won't replace Dave. I have always thought he would. And I have always thought that he would be a complete disaster. The idea of him negotiating a Brexit deal is not a happy one, especially now that he has done so much to alienate the people he will be negotiating with.
The way he wouldn't is if he isn't on the ballot. There will definitely be a Cameron loyalist on the ballot.
So that leaves just one place to fight over, and the truth is that a lot of Tory MPs have exactly the thought you have, and would rather Gove (or perhaps A N Other) did it.
If he isn't on the ballot, it doesn't matter one bit that Tory members like him.
I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed around immigration it can be used without outright rejection. Why are Leave taking about hypothetical Turks rather than real Poles ? Because Turks are Muslims. What have we all seen on TV over the last 2 years ? About 2 million largely Muslim and entirely unplanned immigrants who appeared to have just ' walked in '. It seems to me finally mentioning on a poster what this is all about 7 days from polling day is just like a good composer coming towards the end of a symphony. As for it being Farage... well it offers Leave plausible deniability with no real reduction in press coverage for it. I'm not convinced it's a mistake for Leave at all. It seems completely consistent with their strategy. The polls say the strategy is working so far.
Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.
Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.
Interesting though that there has not been quite as much fuss by the Left about similarly anti-semitic cartoons, tweets and the rest sent by some of their own - see, for instance, some of the really vile stuff sent to Luciana Berger MP or by various Labour councillors and others. There is - regrettably - a tendency to see the motes in others' eyes and ignore the beams in one's own.
Well here's two for the price of one. Cartoons are a strange medium to criticize though. Charlie Hebdo had unflattering caracatures of Jews and Muslims. In this case context is everything
I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed
Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.
Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.
They could seal the deal with the WWC (but haven't they done that already?) - yet lose liberal LEAVERS like me (they probably won't, but- hmmm)
Yep. I know some on here cannot see the likeness to Nazi propaganda, but it is there as plain as day.
People see [ or not] what it suits them to see.
I assume the Farage poster was loosely based on the famous "Labour isn't working " one. Until SeanT posted the Nazi propaganda images, I had never seen those particular pictures before - and I strongly doubt many of the population had, either.
Didn't a certain David Cameron refer to "swarms of migrants" last summer?
Precisely. It's an absurd dollop of wishful thinking wankery to compare it to Nazi photos.
The comparison isn't to a particularly well-known Nazi image or slogan and so most people wouldn't make such a connection unless it was pointed out to them. As I said, I had never seen the images with which it was being compared before - and given that my degree was in German, I think I would have a much higher chance than the average punter of being familiar with such things.
The poster may have been tasteless, but to compare it with Nazi propaganda is simple smear tactics.
Unfortunately the claim about war with our continental neighbours is rather misleading. It is 71 years since we were at war with Germany.
But if, as your posting mentions, one went back 200 years that would put you to 1816. That is one year into a 99 year long period where we were not at war with France, Germany or Spain. So really the attempt to describe our current lack of war with our neighbours as exceptional and further to equate it with our EU membership fails even on the most basic historical level.
EH? In 1816 we'd been at war on and off with France, and at times other European countries, for nearly twenty years. And then spent the rest of the century fearing war - so much so in the 1860s that the Government launched what remains, in real terms, the biggest ever public spending project, covering the south of England in fortifications in readiness for a French invasion that never came, France ending up at war with Germany (Prussia) instead. And by the end of the century we'd be building battleships like there's no tomorrow in an arms race against Germany....
Clearly you are unable to read. I said that in 1816 we were one year into a 99 year period where we were not at war with Germany, France or Spain. That is a fact.
But a fact that is wholly irrelevant to the argument. The blogger was comparing modern Europe with its warring past. You counter his argument by citing a period where fear of war in the UK dominated things to the extent that more money, as a proportion of public spending, was diverted into defences than ever before or since, and where other European countries were often at war? Paris was even enemy occupied for a time. Either you are being pedantic beyond belief or you understand neither history nor the point of the blog.
Not irrelevant at all. The blogger cited 70 years of peace between the UK and its historically prominent European neighbours and tried to ascribe that to the EU. It is garbage and he was stupid enough to even use a date that marked the start of the longest period of peace we enjoyed with those countries since the Tudor period.
So that leaves just one place to fight over, and the truth is that a lot of Tory MPs have exactly the thought you have, and would rather Gove (or perhaps A N Other) did it.
And I'd add there will be lots of tactical voting among MPs - very sophisticated electorate. The Cameron loyalist may well have plenty of spare votes, and would probably fancy his or her chances more going up against Gove rather than Johnson in the members' ballot (plus a lot of loyalists just like Gove more than Johnson).
With less than a week to go and with Lead ahead in the polls, these final few days were suppose to be focused relentlessly on the economic risks of leaving. That is Remains only card worth playing. Yet this week we have only had the chaotic intervention of Osborne, which seemed to fizzle out in half a day and then radio silence. Tragic events in this country and abroad have ensured that no one is talking about the economic risks of leaving the EU. This was the week for the big Remain push, led by non-Tory figures, that might have hauled back Leaves lead. It hasn't happened.
Hold up. Osborne will be using today to plan a massive coordinated 96 hour long choreographed clusterfuck for Leave starting at 5am on Monday, with the full tacit support of the BBC.
He will conclude that since it was purdah that led to Leave getting a hearing they simply must be crowded out 100%.
He will also do his best to totally spook the markets, perhaps by contacting firms and traders through intermediaries directly.
There really is no low to which this man would not sink.
QED - and people wonder why nutters think politicians are fair game.
Point of order: the countries it specifically names as joining the EU are numbered on the map. Syria and Iraq are named/highlighted on the map but *not* listed as potentially joining (mildly surprised Iran wasn't named as well).
What is driving this drift? I haven't seen any new polling.
Sentiment. Most people who are betting want Remain to win.
Hmmm... The whole point about why political betting in general, and politicalbetting.com in particular is taken seriously is that punters are pretty hard nosed about where they put their money. I must admit I have been at a loss to explain the variance of the betting versus the polls. Perhaps punters don't switch unless a clear trend is established, perhaps they take a more critical view of the polls. Either way I think the betting is an accurate view of the way the Punters expect things to go. I'm just not sure why, but will be very interested to see the result v the polls.
There are bettors who are out to make money, and bettors who are out to support their side. The latter are more common.
I see Sanders has effectively taken a 3rd party run off the table.
Trump is toast.
I have been trying to tell PB that Trump is indeed scorched bread for the past couple of weeks.
I wouldn't bet on that yet. Toast might well be frootloop. But he also encapsulates the anger and the fear that is endemic in so many Americans for whom the dream has passed them by. Put Trump against a moderate and he may struggle.
Happily for him the Democrats have selected someone who represents big capital - weapons, prisons, banks, pharma, global corporations - you name a cause that many Americans now see as damaging to America and you will find Hillary taking their money speaking their words.
Whats more she is a woeful candidate - wooden, lacking in human empathy, with an enormous walk-in closet full of skeletons from both her own track record in the Senate and as Secretary of State plus from her husband. All Trump's strengths play to her weaknesses.
If (and I accept its a big if) he can tone down some of the demagogery he can win this.
Mr. T, some lighter campaigning (so those closest to the victim don't feel obligated to immediately get back out there) might be a better option.
I agree halting things entirely for so long is perhaps a mistake. The problem is we're so near polling day. If there were weeks to go it wouldn't affect things as much to take a longer break but there's only 6 days.
The only reporting of the Labour big guns was of splits about immigration between Tom Watson and others.
What's happening on the ground for LabourIn? I've no idea. We've had a smattering of local reports here which vary from very good to pretty awful.
In the final week, surely it's all GOTV - and reinforcing the message to those most likely to support you.
The Labour campaign has been going strong with almost no reportage as the media is focused on Tories attacking Tories. The Alan Johnson battlebus has toured the country getting local press coverage as it goes. Gordon Brown is doing the same giving speeches. Activist teams in target seats have been door knocking for weeks and running street stalls and the like. When the media starts waffling about "Labour voters don't know your policy" when no coverage at all has been given is it any surprise?
But as I understand it the result of all this has not been as expected. MPs were sent home last week to campaign through to the referendum. We know where the Labour votes are from recent elections but with sizeable numbers voting to Leave I know of Labour teams targeting Tory areas hoping to find more Remain votes....
Thanks for that. I know I've posted on here several times re what the *invisible* pro-Brexit big names are doing - it's all groundwar, not airwar.
What is driving this drift? I haven't seen any new polling.
Sentiment. Most people who are betting want Remain to win.
The people with money to bet are largely rich people who want REMAIN to win and so have a bias to REMAIN when betting.
Rich people have most to lose from LEAVE, so I would expect many of them betting on LEAVE as a hedge, including financial organisations. It cuts both ways.
Thanks Rochdale Pioneer. Very interesting. I delivered all this morning. A large German Shepherd dog was literally hanging out of an upstairs window barking its head off at me for the entire time I delivered one road. Imagine having to live there. I presume he does it all day long.
Labour, by contrast, is the dog that has not barked in this campaign. Quite extraordinary. Corbyn is playing a blinder for Leave and has gone up enormously in my estimations.
Point of order: the countries it specifically names as joining the EU are numbered on the map. Syria and Iraq are named/highlighted on the map but *not* listed as potentially joining (mildly surprised Iran wasn't named as well).
There is no legitimate reason whatsoever to name Syria or Iraq on a map titled "Countries set to join the EU".
What is driving this drift? I haven't seen any new polling.
Sentiment. Most people who are betting want Remain to win.
Hmmm... The whole point about why political betting in general, and politicalbetting.com in particular is taken seriously is that punters are pretty hard nosed about where they put their money. I must admit I have been at a loss to explain the variance of the betting versus the polls. Perhaps punters don't switch unless a clear trend is established, perhaps they take a more critical view of the polls. Either way I think the betting is an accurate view of the way the Punters expect things to go. I'm just not sure why, but will be very interested to see the result v the polls.
There are bettors who are out to make money, and bettors who are out to support their side. The latter are more common.
Mr. F, I simply don't understand that perspective, betting on what you want to happen. It's like a peculiar eccentricity that only affects some of those whose wallets are weightier than their brains.
The first thing I did when I started betting regularly on F1 in 2009 was to deliberately try and avoid having either favourites or particularly disliked teams/drivers to minimise the risk of bias.
Unfortunately the claim about war with our continental neighbours is rather misleading. It is 71 years since we were at war with Germany.
But if, as your posting mentions, one went back 200 years that would put you to 1816. That is one year into a 99 year long period where we were not at war with France, Germany or Spain. So really the attempt to describe our current lack of war with our neighbours as exceptional and further to equate it with our EU membership fails even on the most basic historical level.
EH? In 1816 we'd been at war on and off with France, and at times other European countries, for nearly twenty years. And then spent the rest of the century fearing war - so much so in the 1860s that the Government launched what remains, in real terms, the biggest ever public spending project, covering the south of England in fortifications in readiness for a French invasion that never came, France ending up at war with Germany (Prussia) instead. And by the end of the century we'd be building battleships like there's no tomorrow in an arms race against Germany....
Clearly you are unable to read. I said that in 1816 we were one year into a 99 year period where we were not at war with Germany, France or Spain. That is a fact.
But a fact that is wholly irrelevant to the argument. The blogger was comparing modern Europe with its warring past. You counter his argument by citing a period where fear of war in the UK dominated things to the extent that more money, as a proportion of public spending, was diverted into defences than ever before or since, and where other European countries were often at war? Paris was even enemy occupied for a time. Either you are being pedantic beyond belief or you understand neither history nor the point of the blog.
Not irrelevant at all. The blogger cited 70 years of peace between the UK and its historically prominent European neighbours and tried to ascribe that to the EU. It is garbage and he was stupid enough to even use a date that marked the start of the longest period of peace we enjoyed with those countries since the Tudor period.
OK so for peaceful times in Europe I choose the late 20th C whilst you prefer to choose the late 19th. Where is Harry Hill when you need him...
I wouldn't normally link to articles concerning my little world, but an interview published today with the president of the European Patent Office on what Brexit will mean for an EU patent regime had an interesting titbit in it about how others see our referendum:
Germany has already notified that it will ratify this year and we have four or five others that are in the pipeline. So, depending on the UK, we will be ready to deliver the first unitary patent early next year,” said Battistelli. “But it really depends on our dear friends in UKIP,” he joked.
Whatever people here may think, abroad UKIP is seen as a primary player in this referendum. People see UKIP posters, hear UKIP spokesmen and think that they are driving the debate. This will affect the way that this country is regarded once we do vote to leave. And it will not be helpful.
I don't disagree. However, by and large that's because of how the European media has chosen to portray it.
To follow up on a general theme this morning, I like the argument that the Information Economy has been replaced with it's unlovely cousin the Attention Economy. There's far more information produced than can be read or comprehended. None of us can necessarily keep up with all that's happening even within our core competencies. That trend is longstanding and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Content creators are therefore competing to capture a fairly static market. We each have only one brain. The best way to do that is to switch from intellectual arguments to emotional ones, as humans, en masse, respond to those. We're all familiar with clickbait. What we're seeing now is the rise of political clickbait.
Given the pressure on content creators, we're not likely to see a return to sober analysis and investigative reporting. Which is a great pity.
Yep, UKIP gives the best headlines, so get outsized coverage and readers don't get a full picture of the reality. The same happens here. And that then tirs politicians' hands. Certain things - though they might be eminently sensible - can't be done because voters, with only a partial view thanks to thst poor media coverage, will not permit it. Let's see how those Brexit negotiations go with European voters thinking that the British have voted to leave the EU because the actively dislike EU citizens and don't want them to live here.
Well I went "ugh" when Galloway was wheeled out. There is a real issue with migration from the Middle East and other failed states and the EU and Merkel in particular have been lamentable in the way they are dealing with it. Leave is not an answer to this - or not a complete answer - but the Leave campaign are entitled to raise the issue. The question is the tone they use. Farage I think often gets the tone wrong.
But I do think that some of those who criticise the tone e.g. as in this poster may also want to stop the subject of immigration being raised at all. And I don't think it should be. It is precisely the attempt to make subjects off limits that pushes the more unscrupulous into using memes which are far nastier. We owe it to ourselves to have a proper sensible debate on immigration not to shy away from it just because some are incapable of controlling themselves.
We have been debating immigration for the last fifteen years at least as far as I can tell. I can't remember when the first right wing newspaper published a column about how nobody is allowed to talk about immigration, but it must have been in the very early part of this century. Whether we have had a sensible debate is a different matter. One side cries racism, the other cries you hate the white working class and only want cheap nannies.
There has been a lot of noise about immigration. There has not, IMO, been a sensible debate.
One possible advantage of this referendum is that it is now clear to many what free movement within the EU means. What the consequences of this will be will be interesting.
Also there's a third group, from whom profits can also usefully be made: bettors who get over-excited by short-term events and who rush to judgement on the basis of what they think should happen, rather than what will happen.
Yep, UKIP gives the best headlines, so get outsized coverage and readers don't get a full picture of the reality. The same happens here. And that then tirs politicians' hands. Certain things - though they might be eminently sensible - can't be done because voters, with only a partial view thanks to thst poor media coverage, will not permit it. Let's see how those Brexit negotiations go with European voters thinking that the British have voted to leave the EU because the actively dislike EU citizens and don't want them to live here.
Don't the emotions come from the things that impact people's daily lives though? Is a focus on immigration clickbait or reality for the poorly educated WWC? The elite's bubble doesn't overlap much with theirs. Occasionally the two must meet or we get revolutions.
Just received a very misleading vote leave leaflet.
On the back it has a map with "Countries set to join the EU". It names
Albania Macedonia Montegro Serbia Turkey Syria Iraq
Yep I got that one too. Deliberate lies!!
No it does not! It names the first five (which are all true) and gives their population, highlights them in one colour. Then in a different colour Syria and Iraq are shown to show that the borders of the EU would border Syria and Iraq after expansion.
I thought it was a brilliant poster. A clear visual reference to the " Labour isn't working " classic and moving towards closing the deal. The deal being that the migrant crisis is what this is really all about. If the poster had been used 3 months ago people would have wretched. But now the campaign has been successfully framed
Of course it's not a mistake in terms of winning the campaign. It's exactly what you say. It's the Moslems are coming to get us if we don't vote Leave.
Yes, but, for the very first time it made LEAVERS like me pause and go, Ugh.
They could seal the deal with the WWC (but haven't they done that already?) - yet lose liberal LEAVERS like me (they probably won't, but- hmmm)
Yep. I know some on here cannot see the likeness to Nazi propaganda, but it is there as plain as day.
People see [ or not] what it suits them to see.
I assume the Farage poster was loosely based on the famous "Labour isn't working " one. Until SeanT posted the Nazi propaganda images, I had never seen those particular pictures before - and I strongly doubt many of the population had, either.
Didn't a certain David Cameron refer to "swarms of migrants" last summer?
Precisely. It's an absurd dollop of wishful thinking wankery to compare it to Nazi photos.
The comparison isn't to a particularly well-known Nazi image or slogan and so most people wouldn't make such a connection unless it was pointed out to them. As I said, I had never seen the images with which it was being compared before - and given that my degree was in German, I think I would have a much higher chance than the average punter of being familiar with such things.
The poster may have been tasteless, but to compare it with Nazi propaganda is simple smear tactics.
Except that it looks exactly like Nazi propaganda.
The only reporting of the Labour big guns was of splits about immigration between Tom Watson and others.
What's happening on the ground for LabourIn? I've no idea. We've had a smattering of local reports here which vary from very good to pretty awful.
In the final week, surely it's all GOTV - and reinforcing the message to those most likely to support you.
The Labour campaign has been going strong with almost no reportage as the media is focused on Tories attacking Tories. The Alan Johnson battlebus has toured the country getting local press coverage as it goes. Gordon Brown is doing the same giving speeches. Activist teams in target seats have been door knocking for weeks and running street stalls and the like. When the media starts waffling about "Labour voters don't know your policy" when no coverage at all has been given is it any surprise?
But as I understand it the result of all this has not been as expected. MPs were sent home last week to campaign through to the referendum. We know where the Labour votes are from recent elections but with sizeable numbers voting to Leave I know of Labour teams targeting Tory areas hoping to find more Remain votes....
Thanks for that. I know I've posted on here several times re what the *invisible* pro-Brexit big names are doing - it's all groundwar, not airwar.
Is that actually effective, though? A really good day's groundwork and you would perhaps gain a few hundred extra voters (being optimistic) i... get coverage on national TV/radio or newspapers and that could potentially persuade tens of thousands. (Of course, there is always the potential for a bad day's campaigning to cost tens of thousands of votes if it is widely covered in the MSM).
What is driving this drift? I haven't seen any new polling.
Sentiment. Most people who are betting want Remain to win.
Hmmm... The whole point about why political betting in general, and politicalbetting.com in particular is taken seriously is that punters are pretty hard nosed about where they put their money. I must admit I have been at a loss to explain the variance of the betting versus the polls. Perhaps punters don't switch unless a clear trend is established, perhaps they take a more critical view of the polls. Either way I think the betting is an accurate view of the way the Punters expect things to go. I'm just not sure why, but will be very interested to see the result v the polls.
There are bettors who are out to make money, and bettors who are out to support their side. The latter are more common.
Sean F- the betting markets always, always, always get the flow of direction right. Even in 1992- the betting markets were right about the Tories. They might not get how much, but they get the direction right.
1992, and 2015- were catastrophically wrong for the pollsters. Not the betting markets.
This is the biggest betting market ever by a country mile.
It is certainly not sentiment that is holding up the prices for remain- there are some big players, betting some serious money.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
This is unfortunate to say the least, but there is a critical referendum in 6 days time. I can understand people close to her not taking part anymore, but Labour has to continue campaigning. The future of the UK is at stake.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
People die all the time and their friends have to get on with life. Democracy matters. The referendum matters. We can't put this on hold because of one event - no matter how awful it is for the people concerned. And if the MP does not feel like going out they have volunteers and others to face the public.
We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.
What is driving this drift? I haven't seen any new polling.
Sentiment. Most people who are betting want Remain to win.
The people with money to bet are largely rich people who want REMAIN to win and so have a bias to REMAIN when betting.
Rich people have most to lose from LEAVE, so I would expect many of them betting on LEAVE as a hedge, including financial organisations. It cuts both ways.
That would be the worst hedge in the history of gardening. Rich people stand most to lose if there is a Brexit, so what do they do......they hedge on staying, therefore losing twice.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
People die all the time and their friends have to get on with life. Democracy matters. The referendum matters. We can't put this on hold because of one event - no matter how awful it is for the people concerned. And if the MP does not feel like going out they have volunteers and others to face the public.
We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
They're politicians, not weepy social workers or a bunch of drama school luvvies. Their job is to go out and DO democracy. They can't simultaneously take the praise for being so brave in facing danger (as they have been doing), then decide to hide away for an entire weekend, six days before the country chooses it's long term destiny.
It's total bollocks. My suspicion is that they think this will hurt LEAVE, stopping momentum, creating a game changer. It's low, dirty politics. They are exploiting the death to aid REMAIN. So no change there then.
I think it hurts Remain because you're potentially going to see a lower Labour turnout because of this.
Mr. F, I simply don't understand that perspective, betting on what you want to happen. It's like a peculiar eccentricity that only affects some of those whose wallets are weightier than their brains.
The first thing I did when I started betting regularly on F1 in 2009 was to deliberately try and avoid having either favourites or particularly disliked teams/drivers to minimise the risk of bias.
But, while it's hard to fathom, it's very common. Professional gamblers make money off the people who gamble on the basis of sentiment.
I don't know if you've read Best Served Cold, by Joe Abercrombie. One of the protagonists is acting as a croupier. One of the gamblers is ranting that the House always seems to win. The protagonist is basically thinking "And your point is? Of course the House wins."
"However, some non-European states have different degrees of integration with the EU stipulated by agreements, always short of membership. Alternatively such countries could be integrated into a larger regional block or an overlapping block such as Nicolas Sarkozy's proposal to create a Mediterranean Union, or a lesser organisation such as the Euro-Mediterranean free trade area. The current frameworks for development of such agreements are the Barcelona process and the European Neighbourhood Policy." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_enlargement_of_the_European_Union#States_outside_Europe)
The European Neighbourhood policy are those states shown - so yep - this is (at the moment) a lie, but based on a truth.
Just received a very misleading vote leave leaflet.
On the back it has a map with "Countries set to join the EU". It names
Albania Macedonia Montegro Serbia Turkey Syria Iraq
Yep I got that one too. Deliberate lies!!
I have just received it through the door. I opened the door to find the dimwit that was responsible for pushing this garbage through my letterbox for they had gone.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
People die all the time and their friends have to get on with life. Democracy matters. The referendum matters. We can't put this on hold because of one event - no matter how awful it is for the people concerned. And if the MP does not feel like going out they have volunteers and others to face the public.
We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.
I do not believe for one second that if one of your close friends or colleagues was murdered you would carry on as if nothing had happened, especially if it meant entering the same sort of situation.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.
It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.
Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.
I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public.
If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?
Pathetic. A close member of my family died from terminal cancer last year.
I went to work the next day, and took time to mourn when I had it in my own time. I did not allow it to upset any of my major professional commitments.
This might be very hard for a few dozen who knew Jo very well, and my heart goes out to them, but it cannot and must not be allowed to disrupt the votes of millions to decide the destiny of our country.
We are getting very very close here to making the referendum one on her tragic death, or talking ourselves into postponing the vote.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.
It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.
Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.
I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public. If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?
How many people really knew her that well? 20, 40, 100? 200 tops. The amount of effective campaigning they would do in the few days left is minimal. After all most of REMAIN's campaigning has been done by Osborne and Cameron with the Labour folk putting in a few broadcast media appearances recently.
Mr. F, I simply don't understand that perspective, betting on what you want to happen. It's like a peculiar eccentricity that only affects some of those whose wallets are weightier than their brains.
The first thing I did when I started betting regularly on F1 in 2009 was to deliberately try and avoid having either favourites or particularly disliked teams/drivers to minimise the risk of bias.
But, while it's hard to fathom, it's very common. Professional gamblers make money off the people who gamble on the basis of sentiment.
I don't know if you've read Best Served Cold, by Joe Abercrombie. One of the protagonists is acting as a croupier. One of the gamblers is ranting that the House always seems to win. The protagonist is basically thinking "And your point is? Of course the House wins."
This is precisely why I don't bet on things I care about. I don't want to jinx my own side - and I can't be sure that my assessment is dispassionate.
I am sure that the tragic assassination of Jo Cox will have a profound impact on the Nation as we all reflect on the career of a real ‘Yorkshire Rose’ whose whole life was dedicated to her family, helping people, the poor, and those fleeing war and persecution. It makes you look at your own beliefs and realise that in many ways we have not had sufficient compassion ourselves in our everyday lives and especially as we look at the tragedy of the migration crisis.
Nigel Farage standing in front of that poster yesterday was just disgusting and his attitude has no place in a compassionate UK. While I am a conservative I really do believe that we need to work with all politicians to achieve a fairer and more just society and the Worldwide coverage of ‘Jo’s terrible death’ will have sparked a flame in so many and if we can all be a bit kinder to one another and help those in need she will not have died in vain.
As far as the referendum is concerned the bitterness needs to go and I think leave need to be very cautious on how they play the immigration card. The Daily Mail as you would expect refereed to her assassin as mentally disturbed and gave no coverage to how ‘Jo’ had campaigned hard for remain. I make no accusations on her assassin as I think the narrative as we move over the weekend, and towards her funeral, will be to unite Nations and, labour through Corbyn, will almost certainly make the point that there is no better tribute to her than for their supporters to vote to remain as she would have wanted. Jeremy Corbyn’s tributes to her were just exceptional and he has risen in my estimation though of course I do not agree with his policies.
I still believe leave are just ahead and that the Conservative party will do the Country’s bidding and that both sides of the Conservative party will come together in the common good post the 23rd, as any bitterness will be loathed by the Nation especially in view of yesterday’s just dreadful event. May Jo and her Family find comfort and peace in the love and compassion being shown to them by so many Worldwide
It's not even been 24 hours since an MP was murdered.
Can people leave off the "drama school luvvies" and "Pathetic" quips, or has this site gone permanently beyond the pale?
EDIT: Any chance PB could not make this about "Tories in Brighton good, Labour bad" about 18 hours after a Labour MP was murdered in the course of her duties?
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
People die all the time and their friends have to get on with life. Democracy matters. The referendum matters. We can't put this on hold because of one event - no matter how awful it is for the people concerned. And if the MP does not feel like going out they have volunteers and others to face the public. We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.
It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.
Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.
I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public.
If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?
Compare and contrast with the Tory party, after the Brighton bomb. LOTS of people were killed and injured, it was an assault on an entire government - and the conference went ahead the next day. Even as people bled in hospital.
That's British grit. That is democracy. That's we are meant to be.
Thatcher did her speech hours later, after someone just tried to kill her.
Have we really changed so much as a nation that conspicuous compassion must rule everything?
I see Sanders has effectively taken a 3rd party run off the table.
Trump is toast.
I have been trying to tell PB that Trump is indeed scorched bread for the past couple of weeks.
There's rumours going around that his real aim is to set up a TV station called Trump news.
I've just cashed in everything I had on Trump and put it on Brexit. I genuinely think Trump will be derailed. Sensible Republicans- and yes there still are some- must have looked at his post Orlando ranting and thought- we can't, he can't, something has to be done. It is not the fact that GOP'll lose with him, it is worse than that.
"However, some non-European states have different degrees of integration with the EU stipulated by agreements, always short of membership. Alternatively such countries could be integrated into a larger regional block or an overlapping block such as Nicolas Sarkozy's proposal to create a Mediterranean Union, or a lesser organisation such as the Euro-Mediterranean free trade area. The current frameworks for development of such agreements are the Barcelona process and the European Neighbourhood Policy." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_enlargement_of_the_European_Union#States_outside_Europe)
The European Neighbourhood policy are those states shown - so yep - this is (at the moment) a lie, but based on a truth.
I can't see Israel and a whole bunch of arab states joining the same union that allows unfettered free movement of people & labour ^^;;;
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
Just logged back in to agree with SeanT: this is nuts. Totally insane.
It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.
Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.
I don't think you can reasonably expect people to campaign when one of their close friends and colleagues has been murdered by a member of the public.
If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?
Compare and contrast with the Tory party, after the Brighton bomb. LOTS of people were killed and injured, it was an assault on an entire government - and the conference went ahead the next day. Even as people bled in hospital.
That's British grit. That is democracy. That's we are meant to be.
Thatcher did her speed hours later, after someone just tried to kill her.
Democracy could, should and must go on. This is an open invitation to psychos and nutters: kill an MP and you can subvert politics and stop elections.
If one of your friends has been murdered would you really want or feel able to face the public? This is personal for a lot of people.
People die all the time and their friends have to get on with life. Democracy matters. The referendum matters. We can't put this on hold because of one event - no matter how awful it is for the people concerned. And if the MP does not feel like going out they have volunteers and others to face the public. We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.
Agreed.
People are sick of this referendum. Most didn't want it. They are sick of the name calling and back-biting. They are sick of being forced to choose sides in what is presented as a Manichean good vs evil battle by both sides. It the pubic mood says anything it is that the public want a rest from it and to campaign in circumstances that have produced profound shock would be insensitive.
What is left to say that has not been said? The referendum will not be stopped but some reflection this weekend is what, and I think I judge the public mood here, people want.
Thanks Rochdale Pioneer. Very interesting. I delivered all this morning. A large German Shepherd dog was literally hanging out of an upstairs window barking its head off at me for the entire time I delivered one road. Imagine having to live there. I presume he does it all day long.
Labour, by contrast, is the dog that has not barked in this campaign. Quite extraordinary. Corbyn is playing a blinder for Leave and has gone up enormously in my estimations.
Interesting are you with REMAIN? VoteLEAVE have issued instructions to stop leafletting out of respect. I have emailed my deliverers and sit on another 1,500 that I have yet to distribute.
I see Sanders has effectively taken a 3rd party run off the table.
Trump is toast.
I have been trying to tell PB that Trump is indeed scorched bread for the past couple of weeks.
I wouldn't bet on that yet. Toast might well be frootloop. But he also encapsulates the anger and the fear that is endemic in so many Americans for whom the dream has passed them by. Put Trump against a moderate and he may struggle.
Happily for him the Democrats have selected someone who represents big capital - weapons, prisons, banks, pharma, global corporations - you name a cause that many Americans now see as damaging to America and you will find Hillary taking their money speaking their words.
Whats more she is a woeful candidate - wooden, lacking in human empathy, with an enormous walk-in closet full of skeletons from both her own track record in the Senate and as Secretary of State plus from her husband. All Trump's strengths play to her weaknesses.
If (and I accept its a big if) he can tone down some of the demagogery he can win this.
When 55% of the US electorate refuse to vote for him under any circumstances, including both of my in-laws who have voted GOP in every US presidential election in their lives (one will vote DEM for the first time ever and the other will abstain) I can tell you that he is is toast on a stick.
Listening to the Trump boosters on here (RodCrosby) you'd have thought Orlando was a plus for Trump.
Pathetic. A close member of my family died from terminal cancer last year.
I went to work the next day, and took time to mourn when I had it in my own time. I did not allow it to upset any of my major professional commitments.
This might be very hard for a few dozen who knew Jo very well, and my heart goes out to them, but it cannot and must not be allowed to disrupt the votes of millions to decide the destiny of our country.
We are getting very very close here to making the referendum one on her tragic death, or talking ourselves into postponing the vote.
Sorry to hear about your close family member. Glad you had the freedom to choose how to handle it as you saw fit.
I just think we should cut the MPs some slack on this one.
Quite frankly if there was no campaigning between now and the poll, I don't think it would make any difference. Arguably it would be better to allow people to consider the vote without all the bullshit on the telly.
Comments
But I do think that some of those who criticise the tone e.g. as in this poster may also want to stop the subject of immigration being raised at all. And I don't think it should be. It is precisely the attempt to make subjects off limits that pushes the more unscrupulous into using memes which are far nastier. We owe it to ourselves to have a proper sensible debate on immigration not to shy away from it just because some are incapable of controlling themselves.
Trump is toast.
Germany has already notified that it will ratify this year and we have four or five others that are in the pipeline. So, depending on the UK, we will be ready to deliver the first unitary patent early next year,” said Battistelli. “But it really depends on our dear friends in UKIP,” he joked.
http://arstechnica.co.uk/tech-policy/2016/06/brexit-unitary-patent-plan-epo-president/
Whatever people here may think, abroad UKIP is seen as a primary player in this referendum. People see UKIP posters, hear UKIP spokesmen and think that they are driving the debate. This will affect the way that this country is regarded once we do vote to leave. And it will not be helpful.
What's happening on the ground for LabourIn? I've no idea. We've had a smattering of local reports here which vary from very good to pretty awful.
In the final week, surely it's all GOTV - and reinforcing the message to those most likely to support you.
They seem to be keeping a low profile. However, if they do go public they will be pestered as
a) a hero and
b) to recount what if anything was said by the attacker.
As a hero, their account of what was said will be believed.
Watch this space.
More likely to be flüchtlinge (refugees) from Soviet oppression.
This is a perfect example of what much of this thread has been about.
DanSmith said "whilst I wasn't expecting an MP to be shot dead, I'm not surprised some nutter has crossed the line into direct action, it's been coming for a while now."
I posted a Tweet containing a link to a video of Nigel Farage saying "violence is the next step"
I did not say Nigel Farage was calling for it.
The original Tweet contained the words "he got his wish", I said they were deliberately inflammatory, but the substance (Nigel Farage saying violence is the next step) was relevant to the post.
If you can't follow the logic, at least refrain from accusing me of motives that don't exist
https://twitter.com/petefrasermusic/status/666585744232812544/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Interesting though that there has not been quite as much fuss by the Left about similarly anti-semitic cartoons, tweets and the rest sent by some of their own - see, for instance, some of the really vile stuff sent to Luciana Berger MP or by various Labour councillors and others. There is - regrettably - a tendency to see the motes in others' eyes and ignore the beams in one's own.
And with that I must log off. Everything is depressing me today.
At least in a week's time (pretty much exactly now) we will know the result and this will be over.
Have you seen his ratings with the public? That was before his "squeeze till the pip squeak"tantrum this week.
I have always feared the "vow" moment. Someone with credibility offering a game changer that would snatch the lead back.
With less than a week left I see no sign of it coming. Osborne could certainly not deliver it in any case.
But as I have said, both campaigns deserve to lose.
To follow up on a general theme this morning, I like the argument that the Information Economy has been replaced with it's unlovely cousin the Attention Economy. There's far more information produced than can be read or comprehended. None of us can necessarily keep up with all that's happening even within our core competencies. That trend is longstanding and will continue for the foreseeable future.
Content creators are therefore competing to capture a fairly static market. We each have only one brain. The best way to do that is to switch from intellectual arguments to emotional ones, as humans, en masse, respond to those. We're all familiar with clickbait. What we're seeing now is the rise of political clickbait.
Given the pressure on content creators, we're not likely to see a return to sober analysis and investigative reporting. Which is a great pity.
But as I understand it the result of all this has not been as expected. MPs were sent home last week to campaign through to the referendum. We know where the Labour votes are from recent elections but with sizeable numbers voting to Leave I know of Labour teams targeting Tory areas hoping to find more Remain votes....
'The EU has strict rules on human rights, freedom of the press, religious freedom, political freedom and treatment of minorities. Not only is Turkey nowhere near meeting any of these, it is not even trying and is actually moving purposefully in the other direction.'
I guess the concern is the past performance of the EU,which had strict rules on budget deficits et al for any country wanting to join the Euro.
As we know many countries that were allowed to join were nowhere near meeting any of the basic criteria laid down by the EU but still joined.
Looking at your list of the 1970s, the same applies. Yet when I look at pictures from the time (or read Sandbrook), my key adjectives are grubby and tired.
The debate in the Independence Referendum was never about oil. It was about two things. The fiscal framework that Scotland would have achieved in leaving the UK and whether the threats from Westminster that they would sabotage an Independent Scotland would have been followed through on.
The debate remains unresolved. For Yes Scotland, the answer is that Scotland was and is in a position to cancel huge swathes of unnecessary spending and to limit their exposure to UK debt and that the remaining UK would choose not to sabotage Scotland. This is not unreasonable but it is certainly not concluded either way. The example of Ireland, where the UK not only bailed it out quite willingly but refused to put even the most basic conditions on that bail out suggest that Better Together were the ones who were lying.
So that leaves just one place to fight over, and the truth is that a lot of Tory MPs have exactly the thought you have, and would rather Gove (or perhaps A N Other) did it.
If he isn't on the ballot, it doesn't matter one bit that Tory members like him.
Interesting though that there has not been quite as much fuss by the Left about similarly anti-semitic cartoons, tweets and the rest sent by some of their own - see, for instance, some of the really vile stuff sent to Luciana Berger MP or by various Labour councillors and others. There is - regrettably - a tendency to see the motes in others' eyes and ignore the beams in one's own.
Well here's two for the price of one. Cartoons are a strange medium to criticize though. Charlie Hebdo had unflattering caracatures of Jews and Muslims. In this case context is everything
The poster may have been tasteless, but to compare it with Nazi propaganda is simple smear tactics.
On the back it has a map with "Countries set to join the EU". It names
Albania
Macedonia
Montegro
Serbia
Turkey
Syria
Iraq
An interesting article on the subject
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/daily-mail-nazi-refugee-rat-cartoon_us_564b526ee4b06037734ae115
Point of order: the countries it specifically names as joining the EU are numbered on the map. Syria and Iraq are named/highlighted on the map but *not* listed as potentially joining (mildly surprised Iran wasn't named as well).
Happily for him the Democrats have selected someone who represents big capital - weapons, prisons, banks, pharma, global corporations - you name a cause that many Americans now see as damaging to America and you will find Hillary taking their money speaking their words.
Whats more she is a woeful candidate - wooden, lacking in human empathy, with an enormous walk-in closet full of skeletons from both her own track record in the Senate and as Secretary of State plus from her husband. All Trump's strengths play to her weaknesses.
If (and I accept its a big if) he can tone down some of the demagogery he can win this.
I agree halting things entirely for so long is perhaps a mistake. The problem is we're so near polling day. If there were weeks to go it wouldn't affect things as much to take a longer break but there's only 6 days.
I delivered all this morning. A large German Shepherd dog was literally hanging out of an upstairs window barking its head off at me for the entire time I delivered one road. Imagine having to live there. I presume he does it all day long.
Labour, by contrast, is the dog that has not barked in this campaign. Quite extraordinary. Corbyn is playing a blinder for Leave and has gone up enormously in my estimations.
The first thing I did when I started betting regularly on F1 in 2009 was to deliberately try and avoid having either favourites or particularly disliked teams/drivers to minimise the risk of bias.
I There has been a lot of noise about immigration. There has not, IMO, been a sensible debate.
One possible advantage of this referendum is that it is now clear to many what free movement within the EU means. What the consequences of this will be will be interesting.
Arguably, there is justification for pointing out that Syria/Iraq have large borders with Turkey, given freedom of movement.
Edited extra bit: also, the front specifically names five countries (the same five numbered on the map), not including Syria/Iraq.
It's a tragedy but it must not and cannot be allowed to upset the vote. The campaign must resume at 9am tomorrow.
Parliament can be recalled after the referendum for tributes.
Also there's a third group, from whom profits can also usefully be made: bettors who get over-excited by short-term events and who rush to judgement on the basis of what they think should happen, rather than what will happen.
1992, and 2015- were catastrophically wrong for the pollsters. Not the betting markets.
This is the biggest betting market ever by a country mile.
It is certainly not sentiment that is holding up the prices for remain- there are some big players, betting some serious money.
Dianafication on full tilt.
If someone close to me had died, let alone murdered, I would not want to go out. Would you?
We risk getting into ridiculous over-reaction. There are those who knew and worked with her who are obviously affected. There are many millions of others for which this is not personal. Tough as this may sound, a sense of proportion is needed.
That would be the worst hedge in the history of gardening. Rich people stand most to lose if there is a Brexit, so what do they do......they hedge on staying, therefore losing twice.
* If turkey joins the EU**
** which it won't.
Jeb Bush was sub 2 to 1 for the GOP nomination for ages.
Trump was miles too big for a long time.
Marco Rubio was odds bloody on after his third place in Iowa.
Jeremy Corbyn !
We're less than a week from a vote which could determine the future of our country for a century.
I don't know if you've read Best Served Cold, by Joe Abercrombie. One of the protagonists is acting as a croupier. One of the gamblers is ranting that the House always seems to win. The protagonist is basically thinking "And your point is? Of course the House wins."
The European Neighbourhood policy are those states shown - so yep - this is (at the moment) a lie, but based on a truth.
Glokta's a top chap.
I went to work the next day, and took time to mourn when I had it in my own time. I did not allow it to upset any of my major professional commitments.
This might be very hard for a few dozen who knew Jo very well, and my heart goes out to them, but it cannot and must not be allowed to disrupt the votes of millions to decide the destiny of our country.
We are getting very very close here to making the referendum one on her tragic death, or talking ourselves into postponing the vote.
Nigel Farage standing in front of that poster yesterday was just disgusting and his attitude has no place in a compassionate UK. While I am a conservative I really do believe that we need to work with all politicians to achieve a fairer and more just society and the Worldwide coverage of ‘Jo’s terrible death’ will have sparked a flame in so many and if we can all be a bit kinder to one another and help those in need she will not have died in vain.
As far as the referendum is concerned the bitterness needs to go and I think leave need to be very cautious on how they play the immigration card. The Daily Mail as you would expect refereed to her assassin as mentally disturbed and gave no coverage to how ‘Jo’ had campaigned hard for remain. I make no accusations on her assassin as I think the narrative as we move over the weekend, and towards her funeral, will be to unite Nations and, labour through Corbyn, will almost certainly make the point that there is no better tribute to her than for their supporters to vote to remain as she would have wanted. Jeremy Corbyn’s tributes to her were just exceptional and he has risen in my estimation though of course I do not agree with his policies.
I still believe leave are just ahead and that the Conservative party will do the Country’s bidding and that both sides of the Conservative party will come together in the common good post the 23rd, as any bitterness will be loathed by the Nation especially in view of yesterday’s just dreadful event. May Jo and her Family find comfort and peace in the love and compassion being shown to them by so many Worldwide
Can people leave off the "drama school luvvies" and "Pathetic" quips, or has this site gone permanently beyond the pale?
EDIT: Any chance PB could not make this about "Tories in Brighton good, Labour bad" about 18 hours after a Labour MP was murdered in the course of her duties?
https://twitter.com/junayed_/status/743746758220472321
Have we really changed so much as a nation that conspicuous compassion must rule everything?
I'm going to be playing the EC markets, as I always do in US elections. I need Trump to have a short term spike so I can get some real value.
Hillary to win by 300+
What is left to say that has not been said? The referendum will not be stopped but some reflection this weekend is what, and I think I judge the public mood here, people want.
Listening to the Trump boosters on here (RodCrosby) you'd have thought Orlando was a plus for Trump.
It had the opposite effect.
I just think we should cut the MPs some slack on this one.
Quite frankly if there was no campaigning between now and the poll, I don't think it would make any difference. Arguably it would be better to allow people to consider the vote without all the bullshit on the telly.