politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree on Experts v Commoners

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...

Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market

Stocks and shares go up and down.

I can guarantee you a recession if we vote to Remain, and if we Leave. And a technical recession is highly likely if we vote to Remain anyway.

We are not voting to stop the economic cycle. We are voting on the future of the country.

One of my early 30s friends who works at the BBC in Manchester is leaning "leave". I mentally had him down as a "remain" cert - "remain in trouble"

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

Sean_F said:

Cookie said:

Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.

There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.

But there are also indications that Remain is doing much worse than expected with Labour voters in parts of London. See Polly Toynbee's article yesterday which mentioned her experienced in Barking. It's also becoming clear that the ethnic vote is far from unanimously Remain. John Harris's video in Stoke intimates that 9 out of 10 voters he canvassed were for Out. If that really is the case in their WWC heartland seats it's hard to see Remain getting more Labour votes than Leave in total, let alone 60% plus.

Even the new polls this week show less than 40% of Labour voters backing Leave, middle-class Labour voters are overwhelmingly Remain even if working class Labour voters are shifting more to Leave

Middle class Labour are going to be absolutely horrified if Leave wins this referendum!

Middle class labour and wet tories both need to go home to the Lib Dems.

John_M said:

williamglenn said:

John_N4 said:

williamglenn said:

John_N4 said:

!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?

The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...

True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.

Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.

The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.

I too have a big interest in that particular conflict.

If you like strategy games check out War in the East - a monster and not cheap - but what a game.

Anyway, turning to your point.

There are a number of ways Germany could have won, they could have treated the freed people of Ukraine etc as humans for a start.......

We should also never underestimate the effect of deliveries from us and USA, although I freely admit most of that came from the Americans. (ps I am not really talking about tanks and planes but more the food, transport and raw materials).

Pulpstar said:

One of my early 30s friends who works at the BBC in Manchester is leaning "leave". I mentally had him down as a "remain" cert - "remain in trouble"

I bet they doesn't utter that too loudly around the beeb office...

@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.

HYUFD said:

John_N4 said:

Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%

Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%

Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.

With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for

Most of that 10% will decide not to vote.

NickPalmer said:

Pauly said:

Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.

My understanding is that it's been pretty low key (people on both sides have been preoccupied with the referendum, apart from local members) but Labour doesn't expect to come close to losing. Lowish turnout, though, I suspect.

I suspect Cameron's behaviour should put in it the bag and any referendum disconnect won't benefit them anyway. Interesting to hear your thoughts though, thank you.

A share of a company is worth the discounted flow of its dividends over time: nothing more, nothing less. If you pay more than the dividend flow, then - while you might make a 'trading profit' - you are merely playing the game of selling to an even greater fool. Any investment based up capital gains is ultimately just another pyramid scheme.

Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?

(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)

Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.

Landlords will be happy.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

John_N4 said:

Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%

Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%

Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.

With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for

Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?

I'm undecided.

I usually form a view based on who I'm "secretly hoping" will win and go with that. However I have twisted and turned the whole length of the campaign.

perdix said:

John_N4 said:

peter_from_putney said:

It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.

His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.

Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't

Theresa May is a safer pair of hands. She doesn't shoot her mouth off and insult others.

PB Tories for May!

Brussels has been intransigent over FOM and will surely remain so unless the pressure mounts dramatically. A BREXIT vote is unlikely to be enough. Contagion however might be. Other countries will experience demand for an EU vote. There will arise doubt over the position of Denmark abd Sweden. Faced with the possibility of a wider collapse within the EU Brussels may then budge.

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.

Lock up your drinks cabinet.

perdix said:

John_N4 said:

peter_from_putney said:

It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.

His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.

Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't

Theresa May is a safer pair of hands. She doesn't shoot her mouth off and insult others.

Or Phillip Hammond, who has been remarkably invisible for a Foreign Secretary. Reminds me of John Major and his infamous tooth. And Boris definitely reminds me of Hestletine, the man with the knife in his hands, which is why the Tories won't go for him.

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

AlastairMeeks said:

@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.

Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.

rcs1000 said:

A share of a company is worth the discounted flow of its dividends over time: nothing more, nothing less. If you pay more than the dividend flow, then - while you might make a 'trading profit' - you are merely playing the game of selling to an even greater fool. Any investment based up capital gains is ultimately just another pyramid scheme.

Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?

(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)

Post Brexit there will be an emergency liquity window opened by the Banks. Just in case. That will tend to drive down interest rates, so asset prices should trade up post a Brexit vote.

[I am not a professional investor...]

PeterC said:

Brussels has been intransigent over FOM and will surely remain so unless the pressure mounts dramatically. A BREXIT vote is unlikely to be enough. Contagion however might be. Other countries will experience demand for an EU vote. There will arise doubt over the position of Denmark abd Sweden. Faced with the possibility of a wider collapse within the EU Brussels may then budge.

Nope, not going to happen. The EU would prefer to harmonize welfare systems, in the same way they'd like to harmonize corporate tax regimes. Stops people/companies gaming the system.

Casino_Royale said:

Alex Story
Alex Story‏ @alexpstory

Financial Times: UK stock to outperform after Brexit. So not a bomb so much as rocket boosters under the UK economy

It is Deutsche Bank saying it. The irony.

rcs1000 said:

A share of a company is worth the discounted flow of its dividends over time: nothing more, nothing less. If you pay more than the dividend flow, then - while you might make a 'trading profit' - you are merely playing the game of selling to an even greater fool. Any investment based up capital gains is ultimately just another pyramid scheme.

Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?

(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)

Quite right that the share price is the present vaue of all future dividends (which is why share prices reflect the very long term not the short term).

However, the result is not only a function of the future dividend flow, it is also a function of the discount rate, the return on equity required by investors.

Investors may require a different return on equity because of a different perception of risk with the UK In or OUT of the EU. In the short term this may be a higher rate, which would mean UK company share prices fall.

GIN1138 said:

Alistair said:

If everyone in Scotland votes Remain then Leave just has to win 55/45 in the rest of the UK for the UK to leave.

Well we know at least two people in Scotland are voting LEAVE - Mr and Mrs "G"

Three. Although I sometimes think I had more support as a Scottish Tory.

I think Scotland will vote remain pretty heavily but my guess is that it will not punch its weight with a low turnout. I have still only seen 1 poster up here and I have been driving around 3 different cities in the last week alone.

rcs1000 said:

John_M said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.

Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.

This book has quite a good record: http://www.poslovni.hr/media/PostAttachments/1203672/Joel Greenblatt - The Little Book That Beats the Market.pdf

Not sure if serious .

Todays bollox from Pasty Scott. As if all the share money was Govt investments........

Scott_P said:
@fleetstreetfox: £30bn wiped out - a lot of it off pensions - today by #Brexit fears. That's 3.5 times the annual cost of EU membership. In 10 hrs.

Charles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

chestnut said:

What is the old adage about the stock market? Sell in May and go away.

Remain making themselves look very silly yet again. FTSE was barely 5500 last autumn.

Let's play this game... it was circa 7,000 just over 12 months ago.

It was just over 7,000 in 1999 as well...

Ah yes, the dotcom bubble... I remember it well.

Of course that's a false indicator when you build in the yield over that timeframe... not so much over a year.

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

"Dave was just following orders"?

Mortimer said:

GIN1138 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.

MORI is out tomorrow... If that shows LEAVE ahead (last MORI poll was REMAIN 55% LEAVE 37%) it really will be squeeky bum time....

An 18 point Remain lead? Well I think the direction of that poll will be pretty much guaranteed...

Quite. I think we can confidently predict at least an 8 or 9% swing to Leave.

rcs1000 said:

John_M said:

AlastairMeeks said:

@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.

Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.

This book has quite a good record: http://www.poslovni.hr/media/PostAttachments/1203672/Joel Greenblatt - The Little Book That Beats the Market.pdf

A bit of a naughty link. What would OGH think?

Camnerons gone all McCavity today.

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.

Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?

@Scrapheap_as_was

'Let's play this game... it was circa 7,000 just over 12 months ago.'


Any decently managed fund will be a mix of equities and bonds to handle volatility in the market.

My company fund for example had a ratio of bonds to equities of 60:40 in 2012 but is currently 80:20

DavidL said:

GIN1138 said:

Alistair said:

If everyone in Scotland votes Remain then Leave just has to win 55/45 in the rest of the UK for the UK to leave.

Well we know at least two people in Scotland are voting LEAVE - Mr and Mrs "G"

Three. Although I sometimes think I had more support as a Scottish Tory.

I think Scotland will vote remain pretty heavily but my guess is that it will not punch its weight with a low turnout. I have still only seen 1 poster up here and I have been driving around 3 different cities in the last week alone.

I have a seen a total of one poster in Edinburgh - for Leave.

We're referendum'ed out. That applies to me, too. Although I think the Leave campaign has been egregiously dishonest and in practical terms the consequences of Brexit are best neutral and mostly poor - I just can't get worked up about it, unlike indyref. Remain. Leave. Whatever!

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.

Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?

Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?

Mr. Bedfordshire, he's not hiding. He's rearranging his stamp collection in the cupboard under the stairs of a disused government office building.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

"Dave was just following orders"?

Schaueble: "Frau Merkel... Cameron...."
Juncker: "...Cameron didn't have enough REMAIN supporters. The Referendum victory never took place!"

[Angela pauses to take off her glasses]

Angela: "The following stay here: Schaueble, Juncker, Kinnock, Barroso."

[The four named EUrocrats remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]

Angela: "That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!"

[Angela's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]

Angela: "Is this what it came to? The EU big wigs, everybody lied to me! Even the BSE campaign! The REMAINERS are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!"

Finally got round to talking to my dad about the EU ref. He's voting leave on principle because he doesn't like the Euro. He thinks it only really benefits Italy since the mafia control their banks apparently. I also asked him about the generally elderly working class people he lives amongst. He said they hadn't discussed it much but it was probably 50/50. I was surprised by this thinking they were the sort of demographic that would be leaning strongly out. He describes most of them as Labour voters, but quite right wing Labour - by which presumably he means not Bennite or militant. Something of a corrective to the idea that that is what the Labour heartlands want.

He also thought England would beat Wales 5-0 on Thursday. He does tend to be pessimistic but I thought that was going a bit far. He was quite impressed with their performance against Russia, they just couldn't put the ball in the net.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Camnerons gone all McCavity today.

He'll have to show his face tomorrow at PMQ's. Wonder if that veneer of arrogance that's been bubbling up since May 2015 will finally be wiped off his face?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Pauly said:

Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.

Labour will walk it.

Seems like it - Tories get close but never over the line in Tooting looking at past results, and with Khan on to bigger things but presumably backing his successor, and the Tories eating each other alive, it'd be anomalous to say the least for them to win it.

Casino_Royale said:

LucyJones said:

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.

Wow. Remain must be really worried.

(1) I really hope it's true
(2) What do we think he will say?

Hmm.. what might he say? Maybe something like:

"There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties"

"I am determined, as is the Government, to do everything to preserve everything that we have worked for and that we believe in … by using all necessary means to fend off the hostile vote"

"If it's a Remain, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a Leave we will say 'we continue'. "

Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.

I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.

Sandpit said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.

Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?

Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?

Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.

I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.

He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?

Juncker might consider the optics to be quite good, especially in Sky's Green Room.

Sandpit said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Daniel Hannan
23m
Daniel Hannan‏ @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?

Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.

Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?

Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?

Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.

I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.

He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?

How can they stop him - I thought the report was he needs to do it so he can argue he made an effort to stop it happening, but would only do so if it looked probable regardless. It's about him not us.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Bedfordshire, he's not hiding. He's rearranging his stamp collection in the cupboard under the stairs of a disused government office building.

On St. Kilda

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

John_N4 said:

Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%

Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%

Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.

With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for

Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?

I'm undecided.

I usually form a view based on who I'm "secretly hoping" will win and go with that. However I have twisted and turned the whole length of the campaign.

Get on the LEAVE train before it leaves the station.

Scott_P said:

Ooh-err

@Reuters: In Greenland, some suggest the unthinkable - rejoin the EU https://t.co/i8RuMwQKGB https://t.co/REv16encsO

Is that an EU with or without the UK?

This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!

Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.

"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."

Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

Ooh-err

@Reuters: In Greenland, some suggest the unthinkable - rejoin the EU https://t.co/i8RuMwQKGB https://t.co/REv16encsO

Is that an EU with or without the UK?

How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.

A poll of British and German companies operating in the UK has found that almost a third would consider moving jobs out of the country following a vote to leave the European Union.

In a survey of 700 businesses by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 29% of British and German companies polled said they would either reduce capacities in the UK or relocate altogether in the event of a Brexit.

Businesses in the IT and technology sector are particularly open to upping sticks after a referendum: 41% say they would consider decreasing capacity or relocating. But even in the less mobile manufacturing sector, 26% of respondents said they would consider leaving Britain. Only 13% believed a Brexit could increase national employment levels.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-poll-1-in-3-firms-leave-uk-brexit