Free movement is one of the founding principles of the EU. How could you suddenly re-design it a week before a referendum? Even if they did and even if we stayed in, what sort of precedent would it set? How long before a Dutch referendum showing a majority of Dutch people supporting Dutchit and another vow being made over whatever concession was really needed.
Ah well is this where a British (English?) tradition of cobbled together pragmatism collides with Continental theoretical absolutism.
The Church of England kept a lot of outward Catholic appearance but is Protestant (Elizabeth I did not want to look into men's souls - ie nod and a wink chaps I won't ask so you don't have to tell). We have been a Republic since 17th Century in many ways but have a flourishing Monarchical outward vista. Bit of bending here and there, the odd silly anomaly all goes with our grain. Not too hard to make a special case for an island to have different movement arrangements (not part of Schengen after all etc) if that's the price of preventing the "end of Western political civilisation" at around 4.00 a.m next Friday. Except to the Continentals I suspect it is, and there's the rub.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
Don't think this would be particularly indicative of shy Remainers. Remain is the socially acceptable option. If pushed, a shy Leaver might say Remain.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
What would Brussels offer differently? Do you really think we would get a second referendum?
No, no chance. This is our only chance to really make those in Westminster and Brussels listen. If it's remain, they won't change a thing.
Pretty daft to take anything out of SNP sample of 68 voters in TNS given that all full Scottish polls including TNS have shown the SNP support breaking 2-1 for Remain. Also I wouldn't be surprised if there is a cock up here in the sub tables - TNS show a lead of 10 for Remain in Scotland. SNP are half the sample. That would mean Remain having a 26 point lead among Labour and Tory Lib and UKIP combined for it to square the two sub samples. Seems very unlikely and so moral is PUT NOT YOUR FAITH IN SMALL SUB SAMPLES.
Indeed. Veteran PBers will remember the days when invoking the Scottish subsample could lead to a ban from the site.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
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The number of don't knows in TNS seems awfully high.
Also, if true, it looks like the very young will fail to turn out decisively, yet again.
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get really angry about young people's attitudes to voting on this. They'll have to live with the result for another 30 or 40 years.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
If we vote to Leave, we leave. Any new leader who would like to think otherwise won't last five minutes in the job.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
Must admit I've been wondering this too.
His support base must be at the lowest ever ebb presently.
If we assume that 18% of all votes are postal votes and have been cast with a Remain 45 to Leave 55 split, then, by my reckoning, Remain need to be ahead by 2.2%* on the day.
The number of don't knows in TNS seems awfully high.
Also, if true, it looks like the very young will fail to turn out decisively, yet again.
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get really angry about young people's attitudes to voting on this. They'll have to live with the result for another 30 or 40 years.
If no-one has convinced them to vote, then no-one has convinced them to vote. No point being angry with them. The system, maybe.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
The number of don't knows in TNS seems awfully high.
Also, if true, it looks like the very young will fail to turn out decisively, yet again.
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get really angry about young people's attitudes to voting on this. They'll have to live with the result for another 30 or 40 years.
Again, this is the fault of the Remain Campaign for not giving them any reasons why the result should matter to them. Abstract and dubious claims about GDP figures, threats of falls in prices of houses which young people currently can't get close to buying, and threats from mega-rich businessmen that they'll leave the country, were never going to do the trick. "Remain" have just not given any reasons to anyone who isn't a middle-class homeowner working for a big multinational why a "Remain" result is in their self-interest.
On Don't Knows, TNS had vastly more of them than any other pollster during Scotland's Indyref. It also had massively higher No margins than the others. Read into that what you will.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
Must admit I've been wondering this too.
His support base must be at the lowest ever ebb presently.
ScottP is still onboard :-)
Only because he doesn't realise he'd get better odds switching doors, right?
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
Must admit I've been wondering this too.
His support base must be at the lowest ever ebb presently.
ScottP is still onboard :-)
Only because he doesn't realise he'd get better odds switching doors, right?
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
Except that (a) free movement wouldn't be on the table, and (b) mood music doesn't work any more.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
How long would the snap leadership election take? If a pro-leave leader could be in place officially or otherwise before the vote then it might seriously backfire.
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
The number of don't knows in TNS seems awfully high.
Also, if true, it looks like the very young will fail to turn out decisively, yet again.
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get really angry about young people's attitudes to voting on this. They'll have to live with the result for another 30 or 40 years.
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
That was certainly picked up in the John Harris video, where in Stoke which is has been a Labour heartland forever, he found a number of people who had voted Labour all their life but now UKIP.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
What happens to the Referendum?
No-one can reasonably be expected to vote at all (either Remain or Leave) on the basis that an unknown leader will go and negotiate an unknowable deal at some unknown time in the future.
So, Parliament would have to legislate to cancel the Referendum. (Can it do that ?)
Many of us would be doubtful if we would ever get the Referendum back. It has proved far too dangerous to our political classes.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
How long would the snap leadership election take? If a pro-leave leader could be in place officially or otherwise before the vote then it might seriously backfire.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
Except that (a) free movement wouldn't be on the table, and (b) mood music doesn't work any more.
It wouldn't matter. Cameron going would be the dead-cat to end dead-cats. The argument that another leader should have a chance would win over most of the people who think Brexit is a risk but also want to stick two-fingers up to Cameron.
It wouldn't matter. Cameron going would be the dead-cat to end dead-cats. The argument that another leader should have a chance would win over most of the people who think Brexit is a risk but also want to stick two-fingers up to Cameron.
But the Brexiteers have been insisting Cameron must stay.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
What happens to the Referendum?
No-one can reasonably be expected to vote at all (either Remain or Leave) on the basis that an unknown leader will go and negotiate an unknowable deal at some unknown time in the future.
So, Parliament would have to legislate to cancel the Referendum. (Can it do that ?)
Many of us would be doubtful if we would ever get the Referendum back. It has proved far too dangerous to our political classes.
Won't happen. Freedom of movement is an absolute touchstone for Merkel, who is in line with the German establishment on this. If Britain goes so be it.
German word: Konsequenz. It closes down every argument.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Scott_P just likes to write 'Let them eat sovereignty'. Let him have his simple pleasure in life.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
The stock market is massively over valued. It's waiting for a massive correction. More obvious than Brexit will be the end of 'easing' - its a market that survives on free money. Yellen will have to tighten, when she does it's game over.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Especially since Paris and Madrid are down by more than London. Surely they can't believe that they will be more affected by Brexit than the UK.
Pretty daft to take anything out of SNP sample of 68 voters in TNS given that all full Scottish polls including TNS have shown the SNP support breaking 2-1 for Remain. Also I wouldn't be surprised if there is a cock up here in the sub tables - TNS show a lead of 10 for Remain in Scotland. SNP are half the sample. That would mean Remain having a 26 point lead among Labour and Tory Lib and UKIP combined for it to square the two sub samples. Seems very unlikely and so moral is PUT NOT YOUR FAITH IN SMALL SUB SAMPLES.
You're right, but even though many SNP voters are great believers in sunshine and "we can do it" I wouldn't go as far as to think that when next Thursday comes they will mostly follow the logic that says "if we all vote Remain then we'll get a new referendum or UDI". Maybe the 2-1 to Remain in other polls is because they think that's what the pollsters want to hear.
The Western Isles are represented by the SNP in both Westminster and Holyrood but voted for the Union in the indyref and are likely to vote by a large majority (in excess of 70% to 30%) for Leave in the EUref.
On Don't Knows, TNS had vastly more of them than any other pollster during Scotland's Indyref. It also had massively higher No margins than the others. Read into that what you will.
True on the DKs and generally on its No inclination, but fwiw the last TNS 2 weeks before the referendum had the No lead at 1pt.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Scott_P just likes to write 'Let them eat sovereignty'. Let him have his simple pleasure in life.
You say that but MSmithson is joining in on Twitter... but then I suppose he does have a history with the libdems so we'll let him off.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
The FTSE could just as easily rise by 2% tomorrow.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
The FTSE could just as easily rise by 2% tomorrow.
Stock markets hate uncertainty more than a "bad" outcome.
It's as plain as a pikestaff that freedom of movement is the issue and that everyone around the negotiating table a few months ago made a huge error in not believing the Brits would be anywhere near this position at this point. Cameron, Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, the lot of them.
How about this for a game-changer: Cameron could announce his immediate resignation, admit that he messed up the renegotiation and urge people to vote Remain to give the new leader a chance to go to Brussels and do it properly this time?
That might be just about the only option he has left.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
The new leader in that instance could just as easily (far more easily in fact) go to Brussels and renegotiate on the basis of a 'Leave' vote.
But Leave is Leave.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
How long would the snap leadership election take? If a pro-leave leader could be in place officially or otherwise before the vote then it might seriously backfire.
It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way. Although the likelihood of it happening would be remote in the extreme, any significant concessions would have to come from the major EU leaders, perhaps accompanied by say a six month cooling off period, followed by a maximum period of 12 months of renewed negotiations. A further referendum would only be held if the Cabinet of the day, or specially appointed Committee, considered that sufficient progress had been made to justify one, failing which the Brexit procedures would then follow apace. Clutching at straws I know.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
The FTSE could just as easily rise by 2% tomorrow.
Stock markets hate uncertainty more than a "bad" outcome.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Especially since Paris and Madrid are down by more than London. Surely they can't believe that they will be more affected by Brexit than the UK.
Markets hate uncertainty. Brexit is a massive uncertainty. It is ridiculous to say that share price falls are not related to Brexit fears.
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.
But there are also indications that Remain is doing much worse than expected with Labour voters in parts of London. See Polly Toynbee's article yesterday which mentioned her experienced in Barking. It's also becoming clear that the ethnic vote is far from unanimously Remain. John Harris's video in Stoke intimates that 9 out of 10 voters he canvassed were for Out. If that really is the case in their WWC heartland seats it's hard to see Remain getting more Labour votes than Leave in total, let alone 60% plus.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
Owning shares isn't the point. It is fear of an economic downturn and falling profits, investment and so on. The buck will stop with ordinary employees, it always does. They'll be out of work.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Especially since Paris and Madrid are down by more than London. Surely they can't believe that they will be more affected by Brexit than the UK.
Markets hate uncertainty. Brexit is a massive uncertainty. It is ridiculous to say that share price falls are not related to Brexit fears.
Uncertainty yes, fears no. After all share price falls today are simply cheaper asset buys tomorrow.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Especially since Paris and Madrid are down by more than London. Surely they can't believe that they will be more affected by Brexit than the UK.
I can't stop anyone posting anything on this site, but for goodness sake. The markets are always worried about this or fearful of that. It's incredibly hard to tease out the key elements of any short term trend. I quite understand that it's in Remain's interest to ascribe every movement of {currency, market} to Brexit fears, but it's just so tedious.
It's also very egotistical - in the great scheme of things the entire uk economy is noise - roughly $3 trillion out of a roughly $74 trillion global. We're a year's growth, if that. The world has bigger things to worry about than the UK - Yellen's next move, China, Japan, the overall commodities cycle. I'm sure Robert could expand that list.
Free movement is one of the founding principles of the EU. How could you suddenly re-design it a week before a referendum? Even if they did and even if we stayed in, what sort of precedent would it set? How long before a Dutch referendum showing a majority of Dutch people supporting Dutchit and another vow being made over whatever concession was really needed.
They can't and won't, as it blows the EU founding principles apart. And if they give special exemptions to the UK, every other country is going to come knocking for their own special conditions.
The founding principles are from the 1950s when travelling thousands of miles for work was almost unheard of. It was a different world
The "founding principles" of the USA were that every free man should have the right to bear arms.
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.
But there are also indications that Remain is doing much worse than expected with Labour voters in parts of London. See Polly Toynbee's article yesterday which mentioned her experienced in Barking. It's also becoming clear that the ethnic vote is far from unanimously Remain. John Harris's video in Stoke intimates that 9 out of 10 voters he canvassed were for Out. If that really is the case in their WWC heartland seats it's hard to see Remain getting more Labour votes than Leave in total, let alone 60% plus.
Even the new polls this week show less than 40% of Labour voters backing Leave, middle-class Labour voters are overwhelmingly Remain even if working class Labour voters are shifting more to Leave
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
Owning shares isn't the point. It is fear of an economic downturn and falling profits, investment and so on. The buck will stop with ordinary employees, it always does. They'll be out of work.
Good point. The issue is that at the bottom, the electorate own no shares, have no pension scheme or mortgage or savings and find it very hard to see the correlation between macro-economic indicators and their personal circumstances.
The number of don't knows in TNS seems awfully high.
Also, if true, it looks like the very young will fail to turn out decisively, yet again.
I know I shouldn't but I'm starting to get really angry about young people's attitudes to voting on this. They'll have to live with the result for another 30 or 40 years.
That only computes if you don't think an independent Britain will be a fantastic success.
I think it will be and am certainly thinking of my future children in casting my vote.
To play this speculative game (as in game theory) I might append a sentence at the end as follows:
Ask yourself, as Cromwell, a man who challenged the inevitable divine right of kings, did: [Is it] “possible you may be mistaken?”
"And is a country that identifies itself to some extent with an unelected ordinary German family and an unelected upper house not capable of surprises?"
Don't think this would be particularly indicative of shy Remainers. Remain is the socially acceptable option. If pushed, a shy Leaver might say Remain.
Only amongst the upper middle-class, in the working class Midlands Remain campaigners are getting doors slammed in their face
Jo miller @jomillerdonny 1h1 hour ago Visited busy @MyDoncaster elections team-2day registration extension period resulted in 2.3k applications of which 50%duplicate
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.
But there are also indications that Remain is doing much worse than expected with Labour voters in parts of London. See Polly Toynbee's article yesterday which mentioned her experienced in Barking. It's also becoming clear that the ethnic vote is far from unanimously Remain. John Harris's video in Stoke intimates that 9 out of 10 voters he canvassed were for Out. If that really is the case in their WWC heartland seats it's hard to see Remain getting more Labour votes than Leave in total, let alone 60% plus.
Even the new polls this week show less than 40% of Labour voters backing Leave, middle-class Labour voters are overwhelmingly Remain even if working class Labour voters are shifting more to Leave
Middle class Labour are going to be absolutely horrified if Leave wins this referendum!
Free movement is one of the founding principles of the EU. How could you suddenly re-design it a week before a referendum? Even if they did and even if we stayed in, what sort of precedent would it set? How long before a Dutch referendum showing a majority of Dutch people supporting Dutchit and another vow being made over whatever concession was really needed.
They can't and won't, as it blows the EU founding principles apart. And if they give special exemptions to the UK, every other country is going to come knocking for their own special conditions.
The founding principles are from the 1950s when travelling thousands of miles for work was almost unheard of. It was a different world
The "founding principles" of the USA were that every free man should have the right to bear arms.
How would you say that one is working out?
It would be sensible to radically reform both, but neither will. If Cameron had come back with his deal that had managed proper reform on this issue, he would have walked the referendum.
@ScottyNational: News:#IndyCamp defendants published full list of requested witnesses- The Queen Jesus Wallace's ghost Salmond's Portrait a Tunnock's Teacake
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.
But there are also indications that Remain is doing much worse than expected with Labour voters in parts of London. See Polly Toynbee's article yesterday which mentioned her experienced in Barking. It's also becoming clear that the ethnic vote is far from unanimously Remain. John Harris's video in Stoke intimates that 9 out of 10 voters he canvassed were for Out. If that really is the case in their WWC heartland seats it's hard to see Remain getting more Labour votes than Leave in total, let alone 60% plus.
Even the new polls this week show less than 40% of Labour voters backing Leave, middle-class Labour voters are overwhelmingly Remain even if working class Labour voters are shifting more to Leave
Middle class Labour are going to be absolutely horrified if Leave wins this referendum!
Maybe but they are now close to if not a majority of the Labour vote following the rise of UKIP
Another day where the EU is not featuring in the top 3 issues on the BBC news.
I thought Dave cleared the schedules so that Jeremy could take the helm of the Remain campaign and appeal to the Labour vote? Not going to over turn Leaves lead at this rate.
Can you imagine the exquisite agony of people like Heseltine, knowing they must now just shut up and leave it to Jeremy Corbin to make the closing statement for the defence for the UK's future in the EU.
Even if I live to be 120 years old, the £3 I donated to Labour in order to vote for Jeremy will be the best money I ever spent.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Lucky that daily shifts in stock prices have SFA impact on pensions.
Woefully wrong.
I've been advising 4 new clients who are all imminently crystallisng their pension benefits (and aren't high net worth) that their investment horizon was currently far too short to be in managed funds (typically 85% shares) and we've been moving them in to cash ahead of the pension freedoms decisions which are now vast and so take time to decide upon - we've been selling out urgently ahead of the Brexit vote in some cases to get in to money market or deposit for the short term.
Fortunately we got them out at nearer 6,300.
Thing is they know the pots they have to work with now and even if we miss a relief rally if we remainers win, they can sleep ok currently.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Especially since Paris and Madrid are down by more than London. Surely they can't believe that they will be more affected by Brexit than the UK.
Markets hate uncertainty. Brexit is a massive uncertainty. It is ridiculous to say that share price falls are not related to Brexit fears.
Uncertainty yes, fears no. After all share price falls today are simply cheaper asset buys tomorrow.
You bought into Marconi? However I agree - uncertainty is the cause - after all the pound went UP against the Euro today - which could be interpreted that the Eurozone's problems are a lot greater than the UK's. (Which rather puts the UK at a much better bargaining position if we do Brexit - not that David Cameronwouldnt mess it up)
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
The FTSE could just as easily rise by 2% tomorrow.
Playing on stock and currency movements is all Remain has left.
Curious Opinium poll clearly commissioned by a pro-Leave body, asking what union I belong to, whether I'm happy with them, and whether I'd support EU membership under various scary hypotheses (e.g. that the EU instructed Britain to privatise the NHS). Presumably this will pop up in a few days somewhere like the Sun, as evidence that unions don't represent their members because they "show unease over EU intentions towards the NHS".
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
The FTSE could just as easily rise by 2% tomorrow.
Stock markets hate uncertainty more than a "bad" outcome.
Correct - all I'm saying to clients of any 'colour' when they ask me is that I want this uncertainty settled asap and that's as far as I put my colours on display. I'm guessing my clients are 80/20 remain vs leave.
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Again, as much as the commentariat may sneer, "so what" will be the reaction of many people, especially a lot of Labour voters who could never dream of having major shares in anything.
The FTSE could just as easily rise by 2% tomorrow.
Playing on stock and currency movements is all Remain has left.
Nothing on the front page of www.bbc.co.uk/news about this or Corbyn
Just Watson denouncing the EU immigration rules and vote leave wanting to protect EU grants until 2020 quite a way down
The only big stories are the Russian Hooligans and the unpleasantness in Orlando.
Its like they've lost interest.
2% is noise almost these days.
Its got that 2-0 down and only 5 mins plus injury time to go feel.
@weejonnie But we've been told that £20 billion in a day is loose change.
Or is this special Leaver mathematics?
Gosh Alistair, how do you sleep at night knowing that house prices go up and down? There is, as you well know, a difference between revenue and value. Stop trolling .
Another day where the EU is not featuring in the top 3 issues on the BBC news.
I thought Dave cleared the schedules so that Jeremy could take the helm of the Remain campaign and appeal to the Labour vote? Not going to over turn Leaves lead at this rate.
Can you imagine the exquisite agony of people like Heseltine, knowing they must now just shut up and leave it to Jeremy Corbin to make the closing statement for the defence for the UK's future in the EU.
Even if I live to be 120 years old, the £3 I donated to Labour in order to vote for Jeremy will be the best money I ever spent.
That's good to hear that Labour's second attempt at launching their Remain campaign has received poor coverage in the press.
Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.
My understanding is that it's been pretty low key (people on both sides have been preoccupied with the referendum, apart from local members) but Labour doesn't expect to come close to losing. Lowish turnout, though, I suspect.
Comments
The Church of England kept a lot of outward Catholic appearance but is Protestant (Elizabeth I did not want to look into men's souls - ie nod and a wink chaps I won't ask so you don't have to tell). We have been a Republic since 17th Century in many ways but have a flourishing Monarchical outward vista. Bit of bending here and there, the odd silly anomaly all goes with our grain. Not too hard to make a special case for an island to have different movement arrangements (not part of Schengen after all etc) if that's the price of preventing the "end of Western political civilisation" at around 4.00 a.m next Friday. Except to the Continentals I suspect it is, and there's the rub.
He knows that anything said by the Europeans next week will be counter-productive, so what else has he got, short of calling the whole thing off?
No, no chance. This is our only chance to really make those in Westminster and Brussels listen. If it's remain, they won't change a thing.
Just ask Stuart Dickson.
'Trump’s biggest strengths on the terror issue are that he is a member of the more hawkish party, he uses more aggressive rhetoric, and he may be perceived as a "stronger leader." Plus, sadly enough, some research indicates that even his gender could be an advantage over Clinton when voters’ fear of terror is high. So in a vacuum, there are many reasons to expect Trump to benefit.'
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11380320/donald-trump-terrorism-election-political-science
'Trump “emphasizes the word losing a lot,” Surowiecki notes. “‘We’re losing to the Chinese, we’re losing to the Mexicans, we’re losing our country’...it’s all about how bad things are.”
That, he posits, is part of why people are doubling down on their support of the brusque billionaire. “They feel like they’ve been losing, especially Republican voters...They are willing to take a risk on a very risky guy because they think it might make them whole again.”'
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-clinton-2016-loss-aversion-201827730.html
I.e. 51.1% to 48.9%
*Doesn't factor in NI or expats, potentially.
Cameron could say something like:
"Over the past few weeks, I've felt the anger of the British people about the deal I got. It did not meet their expectations and it's clear that we need concrete change on free-movement. I didn't do the job the people elected me to do. But our relationship with Europe is bigger than me; it's about our children and their children's future. It's too important to throw away just because of my failings. That's why today I am standing down as Prime Minister."
At the same time we would have mood music that free-movement would be on the table in some form.
(a) free movement wouldn't be on the table, and
(b) mood music doesn't work any more.
BoZo is a goat
Play nicely everyone.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-debate-luxury-many-young-people-cant-afford/
https://www.totalpolitics.com/articles/news/keira-knightley-urges-young-people-stop-brexiteers-‘fucking-your-future’
No-one can reasonably be expected to vote at all (either Remain or Leave) on the basis that an unknown leader will go and negotiate an unknowable deal at some unknown time in the future.
So, Parliament would have to legislate to cancel the Referendum. (Can it do that ?)
Many of us would be doubtful if we would ever get the Referendum back. It has proved far too dangerous to our political classes.
And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
A lie ? From Brexit ?
I am SHOCKED!
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
German word: Konsequenz. It closes down every argument.
Lucky nobody has
a pensioninvestments reliant on the stock marketThe Western Isles are represented by the SNP in both Westminster and Holyrood but voted for the Union in the indyref and are likely to vote by a large majority (in excess of 70% to 30%) for Leave in the EUref.
Although the likelihood of it happening would be remote in the extreme, any significant concessions would have to come from the major EU leaders, perhaps accompanied by say a six month cooling off period, followed by a maximum period of 12 months of renewed negotiations. A further referendum would only be held if the Cabinet of the day, or specially appointed Committee, considered that sufficient progress had been made to justify one, failing which the Brexit procedures would then follow apace.
Clutching at straws I know.
Tipped by Tony McCoy earlier today. Looks like Stodge had a miserable day
It's also very egotistical - in the great scheme of things the entire uk economy is noise - roughly $3 trillion out of a roughly $74 trillion global. We're a year's growth, if that. The world has bigger things to worry about than the UK - Yellen's next move, China, Japan, the overall commodities cycle. I'm sure Robert could expand that list.
The "founding principles" of the USA were that every free man should have the right to bear arms.
How would you say that one is working out?
I think it will be and am certainly thinking of my future children in casting my vote.
Ask yourself, as Cromwell, a man who challenged the inevitable divine right of kings, did: [Is it] “possible you may be mistaken?”
"And is a country that identifies itself to some extent with an unelected ordinary German family and an unelected upper house not capable of surprises?"
Jo miller @jomillerdonny 1h1 hour ago
Visited busy @MyDoncaster elections team-2day registration extension period resulted in 2.3k applications of which 50%duplicate
@ScottyNational: News:#IndyCamp defendants published full list of requested witnesses-
The Queen
Jesus
Wallace's ghost
Salmond's Portrait
a Tunnock's Teacake
Not all of these are made up...
I thought Dave cleared the schedules so that Jeremy could take the helm of the Remain campaign and appeal to the Labour vote? Not going to over turn Leaves lead at this rate.
Can you imagine the exquisite agony of people like Heseltine, knowing they must now just shut up and leave it to Jeremy Corbin to make the closing statement for the defence for the UK's future in the EU.
Even if I live to be 120 years old, the £3 I donated to Labour in order to vote for Jeremy will be the best money I ever spent.
Remain making themselves look very silly yet again. FTSE was barely 5500 last autumn.
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
Or is this special Leaver mathematics?
I've been advising 4 new clients who are all imminently crystallisng their pension benefits (and aren't high net worth) that their investment horizon was currently far too short to be in managed funds (typically 85% shares) and we've been moving them in to cash ahead of the pension freedoms decisions which are now vast and so take time to decide upon - we've been selling out urgently ahead of the Brexit vote in some cases to get in to money market or deposit for the short term.
Fortunately we got them out at nearer 6,300.
Thing is they know the pots they have to work with now and even if we miss a relief rally if we remainers win, they can sleep ok currently.
Could work.
Just Watson denouncing the EU immigration rules and vote leave wanting to protect EU grants until 2020 quite a way down
The only big stories are the Russian Hooligans and the unpleasantness in Orlando.
Its like they've lost interest.
2% is noise almost these days.
Its got that 2-0 down and only 5 mins plus injury time to go feel.
I am not sure what the point of a suspension for ken...he clearly isn't going to apologise or willing to take on board alternative views.