If everyone in Scotland votes Remain then Leave just has to win 55/45 in the rest of the UK for the UK to leave.
There is no tactical voting to perform bar the SNP trying to get as high a Remain vote as possible in Scotland to justify SinfyRef2: Referendise Harder.
It has to be a huge differential between Scotland and the UK's Remain vote to make the case.
It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.
His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.
Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't
Is the dissonance between the polling data on the way the Labour vote splits and the anecdotal evidence about the voting intentions of the WWC explained by the fact that fewer and fewer of the WWC actually vote for the Labour party? Just a guess - don't have the stats to hand.
There are different types of Labour voters. Sub-samples need to be treated with caution, but we can fairly assume that somewhere between 30-40% of Labour supporters now favour Leave, compared to 25-30% previously. But, there'll be places where close to 100% of Labour supporters favour Remain (eg prosperous parts of Greater London) which means there'll be other places (eg Stoke) where majorities of Labour voters support Leave.
But there are also indications that Remain is doing much worse than expected with Labour voters in parts of London. See Polly Toynbee's article yesterday which mentioned her experienced in Barking. It's also becoming clear that the ethnic vote is far from unanimously Remain. John Harris's video in Stoke intimates that 9 out of 10 voters he canvassed were for Out. If that really is the case in their WWC heartland seats it's hard to see Remain getting more Labour votes than Leave in total, let alone 60% plus.
Even the new polls this week show less than 40% of Labour voters backing Leave, middle-class Labour voters are overwhelmingly Remain even if working class Labour voters are shifting more to Leave
Middle class Labour are going to be absolutely horrified if Leave wins this referendum!
Middle class labour and wet tories both need to go home to the Lib Dems.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.
I too have a big interest in that particular conflict.
If you like strategy games check out War in the East - a monster and not cheap - but what a game.
Anyway, turning to your point.
There are a number of ways Germany could have won, they could have treated the freed people of Ukraine etc as humans for a start.......
We should also never underestimate the effect of deliveries from us and USA, although I freely admit most of that came from the Americans. (ps I am not really talking about tanks and planes but more the food, transport and raw materials).
@DPJHodges: £30 billion wiped off shares? So what...
Lucky nobody has a pension investments reliant on the stock market
Lucky that daily shifts in stock prices have SFA impact on pensions.
Woefully wrong.
I've been advising 4 new clients who are all imminently crystallisng their pension benefits (and aren't high net worth) that their investment horizon was currently far too short to be in managed funds (typically 85% shares) and we've been moving them in to cash ahead of the pension freedoms decisions which are now vast and so take time to decide upon - we've been selling out urgently ahead of the Brexit vote in some cases to get in to money market or deposit for the short term.
Fortunately we got them out at nearer 6,300.
Thing is they know the pots they have to work with now and even if we miss a relief rally if we remainers win, they can sleep ok currently.
I'm sorry, I know you are an IFA and know your job.
But...
If they are that close to retirement, WTF were they doing in an 85% long equity fund in the first place?
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.
My understanding is that it's been pretty low key (people on both sides have been preoccupied with the referendum, apart from local members) but Labour doesn't expect to come close to losing. Lowish turnout, though, I suspect.
I suspect Cameron's behaviour should put in it the bag and any referendum disconnect won't benefit them anyway. Interesting to hear your thoughts though, thank you.
It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.
His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.
Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't
Theresa May is a safer pair of hands. She doesn't shoot her mouth off and insult others.
A share of a company is worth the discounted flow of its dividends over time: nothing more, nothing less. If you pay more than the dividend flow, then - while you might make a 'trading profit' - you are merely playing the game of selling to an even greater fool. Any investment based up capital gains is ultimately just another pyramid scheme.
Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?
(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
I know several definite voter Don't Knows, who've swung through all the options. They'll probably change their mind twice between the front door and the polling booth.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
I'm undecided.
I usually form a view based on who I'm "secretly hoping" will win and go with that. However I have twisted and turned the whole length of the campaign.
It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.
His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.
Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't
Theresa May is a safer pair of hands. She doesn't shoot her mouth off and insult others.
Brussels has been intransigent over FOM and will surely remain so unless the pressure mounts dramatically. A BREXIT vote is unlikely to be enough. Contagion however might be. Other countries will experience demand for an EU vote. There will arise doubt over the position of Denmark abd Sweden. Faced with the possibility of a wider collapse within the EU Brussels may then budge.
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
MORI is out tomorrow... If that shows LEAVE ahead (last MORI poll was REMAIN 55% LEAVE 37%) it really will be squeeky bum time....
It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.
His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.
Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't
Theresa May is a safer pair of hands. She doesn't shoot her mouth off and insult others.
Or Phillip Hammond, who has been remarkably invisible for a Foreign Secretary. Reminds me of John Major and his infamous tooth. And Boris definitely reminds me of Hestletine, the man with the knife in his hands, which is why the Tories won't go for him.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.
I too have a big interest in that particular conflict.
If you like strategy games check out War in the East - a monster and not cheap - but what a game.
Anyway, turning to your point.
There are a number of ways Germany could have won, they could have treated the freed people of Ukraine etc as humans for a start.......
We should also never underestimate the effect of deliveries from us and USA, although I freely admit most of that came from the Americans. (ps I am not really talking about tanks and planes but more the food, transport and raw materials).
I'm a long time Gary Grigsby fan, though I think WITE was a rare misfire. It's _almost_ great. I prefer War in the Pacific : Admiral's Edition. I keep eyeing up War in the West, but Grigsby's never done airpower well imo, and there's so much of it to deal with!
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
MORI is out tomorrow... If that shows LEAVE ahead (last MORI poll was REMAIN 55% LEAVE 37%) it really will be squeeky bum time....
An 18 point Remain lead? Well I think the direction of that poll will be pretty much guaranteed...
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.
A share of a company is worth the discounted flow of its dividends over time: nothing more, nothing less. If you pay more than the dividend flow, then - while you might make a 'trading profit' - you are merely playing the game of selling to an even greater fool. Any investment based up capital gains is ultimately just another pyramid scheme.
Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?
(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)
Post Brexit there will be an emergency liquity window opened by the Banks. Just in case. That will tend to drive down interest rates, so asset prices should trade up post a Brexit vote.
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.
Brussels has been intransigent over FOM and will surely remain so unless the pressure mounts dramatically. A BREXIT vote is unlikely to be enough. Contagion however might be. Other countries will experience demand for an EU vote. There will arise doubt over the position of Denmark abd Sweden. Faced with the possibility of a wider collapse within the EU Brussels may then budge.
Nope, not going to happen. The EU would prefer to harmonize welfare systems, in the same way they'd like to harmonize corporate tax regimes. Stops people/companies gaming the system.
It's simply not in Cameron's gift to suggest that a deal could still be done and it's certainly not in the style of an Old Etonian to grovel in such a way.
His fellow Old Etonian Lord Lucan preferred to run away rather than grovel.
Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't
Theresa May is a safer pair of hands. She doesn't shoot her mouth off and insult others.
PB Tories for May!
Not bad as a unity candidate. A remainer, but with strong right credentials.
A share of a company is worth the discounted flow of its dividends over time: nothing more, nothing less. If you pay more than the dividend flow, then - while you might make a 'trading profit' - you are merely playing the game of selling to an even greater fool. Any investment based up capital gains is ultimately just another pyramid scheme.
Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?
(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)
Quite right that the share price is the present vaue of all future dividends (which is why share prices reflect the very long term not the short term).
However, the result is not only a function of the future dividend flow, it is also a function of the discount rate, the return on equity required by investors.
Investors may require a different return on equity because of a different perception of risk with the UK In or OUT of the EU. In the short term this may be a higher rate, which would mean UK company share prices fall.
If everyone in Scotland votes Remain then Leave just has to win 55/45 in the rest of the UK for the UK to leave.
Well we know at least two people in Scotland are voting LEAVE - Mr and Mrs "G"
Three. Although I sometimes think I had more support as a Scottish Tory.
I think Scotland will vote remain pretty heavily but my guess is that it will not punch its weight with a low turnout. I have still only seen 1 poster up here and I have been driving around 3 different cities in the last week alone.
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.
Todays bollox from Pasty Scott. As if all the share money was Govt investments........
Scott_P said: @fleetstreetfox: £30bn wiped out - a lot of it off pensions - today by #Brexit fears. That's 3.5 times the annual cost of EU membership. In 10 hrs.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
MORI is out tomorrow... If that shows LEAVE ahead (last MORI poll was REMAIN 55% LEAVE 37%) it really will be squeeky bum time....
An 18 point Remain lead? Well I think the direction of that poll will be pretty much guaranteed...
Quite. I think we can confidently predict at least an 8 or 9% swing to Leave.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
@John_M I'm equally impressed with all the Leavers confidently predicting a rise in the stock market tomorrow and deciding shares have no further to fall now.
Nobody has ever been able to successfully predict the stock market over the long haul, or rather, if they have, they've been clever enough to keep it secret.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Finally got to watch the John Harris video on Stoke. Is there any evidence, apocryphal or otherwise, that this scenario is being played out in other Old Labour strongholds?
If everyone in Scotland votes Remain then Leave just has to win 55/45 in the rest of the UK for the UK to leave.
Well we know at least two people in Scotland are voting LEAVE - Mr and Mrs "G"
Three. Although I sometimes think I had more support as a Scottish Tory.
I think Scotland will vote remain pretty heavily but my guess is that it will not punch its weight with a low turnout. I have still only seen 1 poster up here and I have been driving around 3 different cities in the last week alone.
I have a seen a total of one poster in Edinburgh - for Leave.
We're referendum'ed out. That applies to me, too. Although I think the Leave campaign has been egregiously dishonest and in practical terms the consequences of Brexit are best neutral and mostly poor - I just can't get worked up about it, unlike indyref. Remain. Leave. Whatever!
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.
Wow. Remain must be really worried.
Juncker claimed the right to speak out if REMAIN behind in final week. So this confirms that REMAIN are behind and that Cameron is being pushed around by Juncker. Bad for REMAIN.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Sorry to post so much. Still crutches.
It's not about us. Juncker can't retain credibility with the rEU if he just sits in his office whistling while Britain saunters out of the EU. He's got to show that he's committed to the fight.
Even if he comes over and behaves in a completely crass way (which I'm sure he won't), then his remarks will resonate with any other country considering their options.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
"Dave was just following orders"?
Schaueble: "Frau Merkel... Cameron...." Juncker: "...Cameron didn't have enough REMAIN supporters. The Referendum victory never took place!"
[Angela pauses to take off her glasses]
Angela: "The following stay here: Schaueble, Juncker, Kinnock, Barroso."
[The four named EUrocrats remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]
Angela: "That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!"
[Angela's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]
Angela: "Is this what it came to? The EU big wigs, everybody lied to me! Even the BSE campaign! The REMAINERS are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!"
I'd imagine he'll just be very nice and complimentary about the UK, and tell us how much the EU needs us - think Cameron in the indyref. Won't do Remain any harm. Can't see it being a game changer.
Finally got round to talking to my dad about the EU ref. He's voting leave on principle because he doesn't like the Euro. He thinks it only really benefits Italy since the mafia control their banks apparently. I also asked him about the generally elderly working class people he lives amongst. He said they hadn't discussed it much but it was probably 50/50. I was surprised by this thinking they were the sort of demographic that would be leaning strongly out. He describes most of them as Labour voters, but quite right wing Labour - by which presumably he means not Bennite or militant. Something of a corrective to the idea that that is what the Labour heartlands want.
He also thought England would beat Wales 5-0 on Thursday. He does tend to be pessimistic but I thought that was going a bit far. He was quite impressed with their performance against Russia, they just couldn't put the ball in the net.
"The ‘Viking-Line’ case in the ECJ threatens to impose lower wages than the UK minimum wage – allowing companies using an HQ address of convenience in Poland or Romania to impose the overseas minimum wage on their UK workers" - what is this? Will employers be able to pay less than minimum wage? Will this lead to more loss on jobs for ordinary folk?
He'll have to show his face tomorrow at PMQ's. Wonder if that veneer of arrogance that's been bubbling up since May 2015 will finally be wiped off his face?
'Let's play this game... it was circa 7,000 just over 12 months ago.'
Any decently managed fund will be a mix of equities and bonds to handle volatility in the market.
My company fund for example had a ratio of bonds to equities of 60:40 in 2012 but is currently 80:20
Currently then the equities are doing badly and the bonds yielding negative amounts (obviously most bonds don't but just playing devils advocate). It's a hard investment climate.
Moreover if I'd asked you to list the 'decently managed funds' in 2000 I suspect that many of them have proved to be a real disappointment to their investors. If you did the same thing now then many of them would probably disappoint over the next 15 years.
Money under the bed is not such a bad option these days.
Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.
Labour will walk it.
Seems like it - Tories get close but never over the line in Tooting looking at past results, and with Khan on to bigger things but presumably backing his successor, and the Tories eating each other alive, it'd be anomalous to say the least for them to win it.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?
Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.
I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.
He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.
Wow. Remain must be really worried.
(1) I really hope it's true (2) What do we think he will say?
Hmm.. what might he say? Maybe something like:
"There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties"
"I am determined, as is the Government, to do everything to preserve everything that we have worked for and that we believe in … by using all necessary means to fend off the hostile vote"
"If it's a Remain, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a Leave we will say 'we continue'. "
Don't think this would be particularly indicative of shy Remainers. Remain is the socially acceptable option. If pushed, a shy Leaver might say Remain.
Is it the socially acceptable option? In some situations, yes, but I don't think it is decisive personally, I feel like there are plenty of areas admitting you are for Remain would be a faux pas.
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?
Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.
I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.
He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?
Juncker might consider the optics to be quite good, especially in Sky's Green Room.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?
Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.
I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.
He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?
How can they stop him - I thought the report was he needs to do it so he can argue he made an effort to stop it happening, but would only do so if it looked probable regardless. It's about him not us.
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
I'm undecided.
I usually form a view based on who I'm "secretly hoping" will win and go with that. However I have twisted and turned the whole length of the campaign.
Get on the LEAVE train before it leaves the station.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?
Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.
I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.
He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?
How can they stop him - I thought the report was he needs to do it so he can argue he made an effort to stop it happening, but would only do so if it looked probable regardless. It's about him not us.
And in the process almost guarantees a few waverers move to the Leave side. If it really is too close to call, that could be the intervention that decides the result.
'Currently then the equities are doing badly and the bonds yielding negative amounts (obviously most bonds don't but just playing devils advocate). It's a hard investment climate.
Moreover if I'd asked you to list the 'decently managed funds' in 2000 I suspect that many of them have proved to be a real disappointment to their investors. If you did the same thing now then many of them would probably disappoint over the next 15 years.
Money under the bed is not such a bad option these days.'
Bonds include a large chunk of corporate bonds which are certainly not yielding negative amounts.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
A poll of British and German companies operating in the UK has found that almost a third would consider moving jobs out of the country following a vote to leave the European Union.
In a survey of 700 businesses by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 29% of British and German companies polled said they would either reduce capacities in the UK or relocate altogether in the event of a Brexit.
Businesses in the IT and technology sector are particularly open to upping sticks after a referendum: 41% say they would consider decreasing capacity or relocating. But even in the less mobile manufacturing sector, 26% of respondents said they would consider leaving Britain. Only 13% believed a Brexit could increase national employment levels.
Comments
I can guarantee you a recession if we vote to Remain, and if we Leave. And a technical recession is highly likely if we vote to Remain anyway.
We are not voting to stop the economic cycle. We are voting on the future of the country.
There is no tactical voting to perform bar the SNP trying to get as high a Remain vote as possible in Scotland to justify SinfyRef2: Referendise Harder.
It has to be a huge differential between Scotland and the UK's Remain vote to make the case.
Cameron will stay on as caretaker PM and as Tory leader until the Tories get their stabbing knives out and "elect" a successor. I'm considering betting on Gove. He's likely to be viewed as a safe pair of hands where Blondie Trump Lite isn't
Alex Story @alexpstory
Financial Times: UK stock to outperform after Brexit. So not a bomb so much as rocket boosters under the UK economy
If you like strategy games check out War in the East - a monster and not cheap - but what a game.
Anyway, turning to your point.
There are a number of ways Germany could have won, they could have treated the freed people of Ukraine etc as humans for a start.......
We should also never underestimate the effect of deliveries from us and USA, although I freely admit most of that came from the Americans. (ps I am not really talking about tanks and planes but more the food, transport and raw materials).
DYOR.
But...
If they are that close to retirement, WTF were they doing in an 85% long equity fund in the first place?
Counts as disappointing.
Has the discounted flow of dividends of UK stocks fallen as far as the market price? Or were stocks over-priced before? Or are people just selling because they think more people will be selling in the future?
(The great fear I hear from other investors is not about Brexit per se, but about Brexit followed by Corbyn. Corbyn in the EU couldn't raise tariffs 'to protect British industry and British jobs'. Corbyn outside the EU might do just that.)
The best news of the campaign so far. Jean-Claude Juncker is coming to Britain to campaign for Remain.
Remember the halcyon days in 2005 when the blessed Tony was reelected for the last time? The FTSE was at around 4.8k.
I usually form a view based on who I'm "secretly hoping" will win and go with that. However I have twisted and turned the whole length of the campaign.
Won't the Sun have fun with this.
Oompah Oompah, Stick it up your Juncker
a) poor knowledge of Labour's position on the referendum
b) noise from Watson today about freedom of movement needing limiting
Aren't a good number of wavering Labour voters going to think - well, Labour are making Leave noises so it must be ok.
This has to be one of the worst tactics for a campaign since at least last week.
23m
Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP
What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Double-digit leave leads ahoy.
[I am not a professional investor...]
However, the result is not only a function of the future dividend flow, it is also a function of the discount rate, the return on equity required by investors.
Investors may require a different return on equity because of a different perception of risk with the UK In or OUT of the EU. In the short term this may be a higher rate, which would mean UK company share prices fall.
I think Scotland will vote remain pretty heavily but my guess is that it will not punch its weight with a low turnout. I have still only seen 1 poster up here and I have been driving around 3 different cities in the last week alone.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/482688790105194496
Scott_P said:
@fleetstreetfox: £30bn wiped out - a lot of it off pensions - today by #Brexit fears. That's 3.5 times the annual cost of EU membership. In 10 hrs.
Of course that's a false indicator when you build in the yield over that timeframe... not so much over a year.
Dear Lord, please make it stop
For the dividend income.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU
(2) What do we think he will say?
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
'Let's play this game... it was circa 7,000 just over 12 months ago.'
Any decently managed fund will be a mix of equities and bonds to handle volatility in the market.
My company fund for example had a ratio of bonds to equities of 60:40 in 2012 but is currently 80:20
We're referendum'ed out. That applies to me, too. Although I think the Leave campaign has been egregiously dishonest and in practical terms the consequences of Brexit are best neutral and mostly poor - I just can't get worked up about it, unlike indyref. Remain. Leave. Whatever!
It's not about us. Juncker can't retain credibility with the rEU if he just sits in his office whistling while Britain saunters out of the EU. He's got to show that he's committed to the fight.
Even if he comes over and behaves in a completely crass way (which I'm sure he won't), then his remarks will resonate with any other country considering their options.
Juncker: "...Cameron didn't have enough REMAIN supporters. The Referendum victory never took place!"
[Angela pauses to take off her glasses]
Angela: "The following stay here: Schaueble, Juncker, Kinnock, Barroso."
[The four named EUrocrats remain in the room as the others leave. The door closes behind them]
Angela: "That was an order! Cameron's attack was an order! How dare you ignore my orders?!"
[Angela's ranting is clearly audible outside the room]
Angela: "Is this what it came to? The EU big wigs, everybody lied to me! Even the BSE campaign! The REMAINERS are no more than a bunch of disloyal cowards!"
He also thought England would beat Wales 5-0 on Thursday. He does tend to be pessimistic but I thought that was going a bit far. He was quite impressed with their performance against Russia, they just couldn't put the ball in the net.
minimum wage – allowing companies using an HQ address of convenience in
Poland or Romania to impose the overseas minimum wage on their UK workers" - what is this? Will employers be able to pay less than minimum wage? Will this lead to more loss on jobs for ordinary folk?
Moreover if I'd asked you to list the 'decently managed funds' in 2000 I suspect that many of them have proved to be a real disappointment to their investors. If you did the same thing now then many of them would probably disappoint over the next 15 years.
Money under the bed is not such a bad option these days.
I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.
He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?
"There can be no democratic choice against the European treaties"
"I am determined, as is the Government, to do everything to preserve everything that we have worked for and that we believe in … by using all necessary means to fend off the hostile vote"
"If it's a Remain, we will say 'on we go', and if it's a Leave we will say 'we continue'. "
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
@Reuters: In Greenland, some suggest the unthinkable - rejoin the EU https://t.co/i8RuMwQKGB https://t.co/REv16encsO
Gets anorak ( it's the cold up there ).
Get on the LEAVE train before it leaves the station.
'Currently then the equities are doing badly and the bonds yielding negative amounts (obviously most bonds don't but just playing devils advocate). It's a hard investment climate.
Moreover if I'd asked you to list the 'decently managed funds' in 2000 I suspect that many of them have proved to be a real disappointment to their investors. If you did the same thing now then many of them would probably disappoint over the next 15 years.
Money under the bed is not such a bad option these days.'
Bonds include a large chunk of corporate bonds which are certainly not yielding negative amounts.
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
Juncker - the most entertaining EU pres yet
In a survey of 700 businesses by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 29% of British and German companies polled said they would either reduce capacities in the UK or relocate altogether in the event of a Brexit.
Businesses in the IT and technology sector are particularly open to upping sticks after a referendum: 41% say they would consider decreasing capacity or relocating. But even in the less mobile manufacturing sector, 26% of respondents said they would consider leaving Britain. Only 13% believed a Brexit could increase national employment levels.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/14/eu-referendum-poll-1-in-3-firms-leave-uk-brexit