It isn't always quite so busy, but people are getting a shade excited. Just wait until referendum night. Two or three thousand posts wouldn't be a surprise.
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
I'm sure he is a capable politician in some ways, but can he pitch even to waverers? If he offers something new the question for people uncertain might well be why couldn't it be offered before. If he makes remarks about Britain doing poorly after leaving it's no different than anyone else saying it, if someone is on the fence but leaning Leave why would Juncker saying it make them be swayed by it now. So say he goes positive instead - it would be refreshing, but many of the things Juncker and others like about the EU is things many in the public do not, and many of those leaning Leave do not.
So it may not do much more harm so long as he doesn't just fling insults, which seems improbable, but Remain may need to change momentum, and this won't achieve that. What will?
Brexit ultimate bogey man coming to the UK...most people won't know who he is, but it just gives brexit campaign to point and say see that bloke he is in charge of the eu....is he? Did I miss the vote when we got to decide...no you don't get to decide on who it is.
The biggest club you can hit Junker with is the tax system in Luxembourg, which exists only to deprive the other nation states of corporation tax revenue that should rightly be paid in nations where money is made.
Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.
Labour will walk it.
Seems like it - Tories get close but never over the line in Tooting looking at past results, and with Khan on to bigger things but presumably backing his successor, and the Tories eating each other alive, it'd be anomalous to say the least for them to win it.
In Tooting the Khan is dead but Long Live the Khan (Labour's new candidate).
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
I recall Cameron strongly opposing Juncker's appointment on account of him supposedly being anti-British. It's funny how things change .... a friend in need is a friend indeed. I assume a LEAVER will be given equal air time so as to provide balance.
'In a survey of 700 businesses by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 29% of British and German companies polled said they would either reduce capacities in the UK or relocate altogether in the event of a Brexit.'
Should have made it 49% to make it more frightening.
He'll have to show his face tomorrow at PMQ's. Wonder if that veneer of arrogance that's been bubbling up since May 2015 will finally be wiped off his face?
He's been out and about in Suffolk.
Does anyone have any info on how Labour's intervention has played out, as I'm not watching any news channel at the moment?
Any Labour people worried the low-coverage for the Tooting by-election might flip it blue via turnout? I've barely heard anything - even here.
Labour will walk it.
Seems like it - Tories get close but never over the line in Tooting looking at past results, and with Khan on to bigger things but presumably backing his successor, and the Tories eating each other alive, it'd be anomalous to say the least for them to win it.
In Tooting the Khan is dead but Long Live the Khan (Labour's new candidate).
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
A vote of no confidence would trigger a GE, unless there was a second vote reversing it within 14 days.
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
I recall Cameron strongly opposing Juncker's appointment on account of him supposedly being anti-British. It's funny how things change .... a friend in need is a friend indeed. I assume a LEAVER will be given equal air time so as to provide balance.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
A vote of no confidence would trigger a GE, unless there was a second vote reversing it within 14 days.
Am sure Cameron would want to stay on especially as we got the Chilcot report two weeks after the referendum
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
[Joke] If we Remain this is the future:
What If The EU Had 28 Member States With Equal Populations?
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
Doubt it. Denmark is proud and independent minded. But it is absolutely plugged into the German sphere. A bit like Scotland and rUK
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
I recall Cameron strongly opposing Juncker's appointment on account of him supposedly being anti-British. It's funny how things change .... a friend in need is a friend indeed. I assume a LEAVER will be given equal air time so as to provide balance.
He should be given a fair and respectful hearing, but it's hard to see this as anything other than Remain are really feeling in the deep mire. To many he's the embodiment of so much that's wrong. I feel zero loyalty to his position in the political firmament, and yet he has so much influence over my life. Unless he's here to offer some blockbuster gamechanger his visit is probably more about J C Juncker being able to say to Brussels/ Strasbourg post a Brexit that he "tried".
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
A vote of no confidence would trigger a GE, unless there was a second vote reversing it within 14 days.
Am sure Cameron would want to stay on especially as we got the Chilcot report two weeks after the referendum
Undoubtedly his great strength as Prime minister is in his apologies - particularly after the Bloody Sunday and Hillsborough inquiries. A strong response to Chilcot would allow him to bow out doing what he does best.
'Currently then the equities are doing badly and the bonds yielding negative amounts (obviously most bonds don't but just playing devils advocate). It's a hard investment climate.
Moreover if I'd asked you to list the 'decently managed funds' in 2000 I suspect that many of them have proved to be a real disappointment to their investors. If you did the same thing now then many of them would probably disappoint over the next 15 years.
Money under the bed is not such a bad option these days.'
Bonds include a large chunk of corporate bonds which are certainly not yielding negative amounts.
Yes I do know that, and even pointed it out. However notionally the extra interest is to compensate the holders for the risk that the borrower will not be able to pay. Thus (if that mechanism is working perfectly) one would expect to achieve a negative return on a portfolio of Euro denominated bonds.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
Need more Don't knows than they had to reverse current trends.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
Also because the native vote went overwhelmingly to No and I believe were missing in the surveys.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
A vote of no confidence would trigger a GE, unless there was a second vote reversing it within 14 days.
Am sure Cameron would want to stay on especially as we got the Chilcot report two weeks after the referendum
Undoubtedly his great strength as Prime minister is in his apologies - particularly after the Bloody Sunday and Hillsborough inquiries. A strong response to Chilcot would allow him to bow out doing what he does best.
Wars are not won by evacuations - WS Churchill post Dunkirk springs to mind.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
A vote of no confidence would trigger a GE, unless there was a second vote reversing it within 14 days.
With such a tiny majority, the Labour whips should really try and get a vote of no confidence in between the referendum and the Recess, assuming the PM stays in place. Only needs a dozen or so Tories to abstain to force an election over the summer.
I wonder if, in the event of a vote of no confidence, it would be possible for the Tories to appoint themselves a new leader in the 14-day window provided by the fixed term parliament act, before Parliament gets dissolved?
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
[Joke] If we Remain this is the future:
What If The EU Had 28 Member States With Equal Populations?
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
Here's why that's unlikely. Exports to EU as % of GDP:
Ireland 39.8 Germany 22.9 Denmark 21.5 Sweden 20.0 Spain 19.5 Italy 17.8 France 17.2 UK 12.8
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
The problem Juncker has is not one really of his making nor one he can really do anything about. He has a vision for Europe which is shared by many federalists in the Continent and a few over here. Steven Whaley and John Stevens are two examples. Their vision is reasonable and is not in any way dishonest or evil. But it is not a vision that is shared by the vast majority of British people.
Because of cultural, legal and historical differences we have a very different vision of the relationship between the state and the individual. Junker, coming here in an honest attempt to persuade people why they should stay in the EU simply doesn't understand this and so doesn't see that he is part of the problem not the solution. I really don't see there is anything he can say which will help Remain and the danger for them is that he can do yet more harm.
A poll of British and German companies operating in the UK has found that almost a third would consider moving jobs out of the country following a vote to leave the European Union.
In a survey of 700 businesses by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 29% of British and German companies polled said they would either reduce capacities in the UK or relocate altogether in the event of a Brexit.
Businesses in the IT and technology sector are particularly open to upping sticks after a referendum: 41% say they would consider decreasing capacity or relocating. But even in the less mobile manufacturing sector, 26% of respondents said they would consider leaving Britain. Only 13% believed a Brexit could increase national employment levels.
The biggest club you can hit Junker with is the tax system in Luxembourg, which exists only to deprive the other nation states of corporation tax revenue that should rightly be paid in nations where money is made.
The tax loopholes are something Leave really hasn't made much of in this campaign. Many of the companies that have been attacked over the last few years about tax avoidance have only been able to do this because the UK is in the EU which allows them to claim they should be paying tax in Ireland or Luxembourg. I would assume if we leave and do not stay in the EEA this would no longer be possible.
I semed to remember there was a rule of thumb during GE regarding loud Howard & poll announcements....good for Tories he was announcing stuff on twitter, not a peep bad for Tories.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
This place moves so quickly, I posted something yesterday and there are over a thousand posts since, it's impossible to keep up!
Anyway, I just replied to something that may well have been hours ago on the likelihood of a coming GE. Having done it it's a shame to waste it.
"This is why I asked about GE odds yesterday, the conservative majority is slim, and then you have to realise how large a majority remain have in the commons. I think it's quite likely that there are enough conservatives who would put principle over party and allow a vote of no confidence to pass based on the profound change created through brexit and a new GE mandate being required to take that through parliament. I fully expect Cameron to resign in the evnt of brexit too, no matter what he says."
Probably makes no sense now the debate moved on but there you go. What happens if the government lose a no confidence vote? With a fixed parliament do labour automatically try to form a government, I presume the government can't call one in that situation.
A vote of no confidence would trigger a GE, unless there was a second vote reversing it within 14 days.
Am sure Cameron would want to stay on especially as we got the Chilcot report two weeks after the referendum
Undoubtedly his great strength as Prime minister is in his apologies - particularly after the Bloody Sunday and Hillsborough inquiries. A strong response to Chilcot would allow him to bow out doing what he does best.
The PMs response to the Bloody Sunday inquiry was exceptional statesmanship, had most people who watched it in tears, including in the Commons that day.
I wonder if the response to Chilcot will be a little more partisan, given the memories are so recent and a lot of the actors still alive and well?
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
Here's why that's unlikely. Exports to EU as % of GDP:
Ireland 39.8 Germany 22.9 Denmark 21.5 Sweden 20.0 Spain 19.5 Italy 17.8 France 17.2 UK 12.8
Does that Ireland figure include exports to the UK?
Official. Plague of locusts heading this way from Europe and they are insecticide rezistance and set to devastate our crops (well moths actually but just as greedy)
The biggest club you can hit Junker with is the tax system in Luxembourg, which exists only to deprive the other nation states of corporation tax revenue that should rightly be paid in nations where money is made.
The tax loopholes are something Leave really hasn't made much of in this campaign. Many of the companies that have been attacked over the last few years about tax avoidance have only been able to do this because the UK is in the EU which allows them to claim they should be paying tax in Ireland or Luxembourg. I would assume if we leave and do not stay in the EEA this would no longer be possible.
Odd how guardian / bbc / labour party have gone very quiet on that stuff over the past month...
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
Here's why that's unlikely. Exports to EU as % of GDP:
Ireland 39.8 Germany 22.9 Denmark 21.5 Sweden 20.0 Spain 19.5 Italy 17.8 France 17.2 UK 12.8
Does that Ireland figure include exports to the UK?
'Hackers connected to the Russian government broke into the servers of the Democratic National Committee and stole opposition research on Donald Trump, the cybersecurity experts who responded to the intrusion said Tuesday...'
'Hackers connected to the Russian government broke into the servers of the Democratic National Committee and stole opposition research on Donald Trump, the cybersecurity experts who responded to the intrusion said Tuesday...'
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
I think that is not quite true (& I was living in Quebec in 1995).
The final Quebec polls had the Leavers well ahead (4%, 6 %, 6%) respectively. I went to bed thinking Leave would definitely win. But nonetheless Remain did just scrape it.
There were about 12 % undecideds in the last polls, and they broke 10 % for Remain, 2 % Leave.
That is what Fear Porn can do.
It is Remain's Last Chance, and it could still work.
The biggest club you can hit Junker with is the tax system in Luxembourg, which exists only to deprive the other nation states of corporation tax revenue that should rightly be paid in nations where money is made.
The tax loopholes are something Leave really hasn't made much of in this campaign. Many of the companies that have been attacked over the last few years about tax avoidance have only been able to do this because the UK is in the EU which allows them to claim they should be paying tax in Ireland or Luxembourg. I would assume if we leave and do not stay in the EEA this would no longer be possible.
I was thinking the same. Outside the EU it would be possible to pass a law requiring the likes of Google to have UK sales run through a UK subsidiary, with appropriate taxes paid on sales and profits. It would eliminate a lot of the loopholes used by multinationals and increase tax revenues.
Official. Plague of locusts heading this way from Europe and they are insecticide rezistance and set to devastate our crops (well moths actually but just as greedy)
There really have been extraordinarily large numbers. I had 120 of these Diamond-back moths one night, and watering the gardening raised clouds of them. The are tiny things but able to surf high altitude winds to move, in this case most likely from Scandinavia/the Baltic.
Sadly, it will most likely release a vast use of pesticides which will have damn all effect on them (they are significantly resistant) but will hammer many other species of butterfly and moth whose numbers are already struggling. (My current avatar is an Emperor moth on Dartmoor).
I've just had a conversation with a retired politics lecturer (actually a professor) and he was very pessimistic about Brexit. He thinks it's ultimately going to lead to a situation like the old Yugoslavia and he thinks the first signs are going to be seen in Italy.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
I think that is not quite true (& I was living in Quebec in 1995).
The final Quebec polls had the Leavers well ahead (4%, 6 %, 6%) respectively. I went to bed thinking Leave would definitely win. But nonetheless Remain did just scrape it.
There were about 12 % undecideds in the last polls, and they broke 10 % for Remain, 2 % Leave.
That is what Fear Porn can do.
It is Remain's Last Chance, and it could still work.
Yes the point is in referendums if don't knows exceed the margin by which the change option leads then it is likely those don't knows will in the end break for the status quo thus potentially just overturning the change option's lead
I've just had a conversation with a retired politics lecturer (actually a professor) and he was very pessimistic about Brexit. He thinks it's ultimately going to lead to a situation like the old Yugoslavia and he thinks the first signs are going to be seen in Italy.
I'd only gone in for a cocktail....
He's right - Yugoslavia is great example of what happens when nations are forced together. The former Yugoslav republics only put up with the EU (or want to join) because they're some money available.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
I think that is not quite true (& I was living in Quebec in 1995).
The final Quebec polls had the Leavers well ahead (4%, 6 %, 6%) respectively. I went to bed thinking Leave would definitely win. But nonetheless Remain did just scrape it.
There were about 12 % undecideds in the last polls, and they broke 10 % for Remain, 2 % Leave.
That is what Fear Porn can do.
It is Remain's Last Chance, and it could still work.
Perhaps. Although on current polling that would mean chances of anything more than a Quebec2 style result for Remain is a distant dream.
Average of last five online polls (ignoring DK/WV/WS): Leave 52.1%, Remain 47.9%
Average of last five phone polls (ditto): Leave 50.4%, Remain 49.6%
Give them equal weightings and we get Leave 51.2%, Remain 48.8%.
With over 10% still undecided though much still to play for
Almost anyone undecided at this stage is surely a non-voter?
Not necessarily in Quebec in 1995 final polls had Yes just ahead but No won 51% to 49% because Don't Knows swung to the status quo in the polling booth
Also because the native vote went overwhelmingly to No and I believe were missing in the surveys.
There were not enough natives to make the difference it was undecideds which did
What if Cameron going quiet for the past few days does nothing to win over C2 voters (who according to icm are hugely for leave) and ED social group voters because they don't all vote labour anyways and Labour are getting drowned out by bigger news stories. But The tory don't knows start switching to Leave simply because Cameron is not in the news but tory leavers are?
'Hackers connected to the Russian government broke into the servers of the Democratic National Committee and stole opposition research on Donald Trump, the cybersecurity experts who responded to the intrusion said Tuesday...'
I've just had a conversation with a retired politics lecturer (actually a professor) and he was very pessimistic about Brexit. He thinks it's ultimately going to lead to a situation like the old Yugoslavia and he thinks the first signs are going to be seen in Italy.
What if Cameron going quiet for the past few days does nothing to win over C2 voters (who according to icm are hugely for leave) and ED social group voters because they don't all vote labour anyways and Labour are getting drowned out by bigger news stories. But The tory don't knows start switching to Leave simply because Cameron is not in the news but tory leavers are?
Cameron being off the news cycle for 2 days will not switch anyone especially as he will be all over it next week
George Osborne If we remain in EU avg wage in South West will rise by £4,500 - from £26,000 to £30,500. If we leave wages will be 2.8% lower in real terms
The biggest club you can hit Junker with is the tax system in Luxembourg, which exists only to deprive the other nation states of corporation tax revenue that should rightly be paid in nations where money is made.
The tax loopholes are something Leave really hasn't made much of in this campaign. Many of the companies that have been attacked over the last few years about tax avoidance have only been able to do this because the UK is in the EU which allows them to claim they should be paying tax in Ireland or Luxembourg. I would assume if we leave and do not stay in the EEA this would no longer be possible.
Good for Leave that they haven't. It is a side issue, although an important one.
Less government is generally a good thing in my view (although not taken to the extreme). Mr Junker is simply unnecessary. Sadly we'll be paying part of his costs to come and tell us how to vote. A wise Home Secretary would simply lock him up and deport him to Cuba and see if anyone cared. (Immigration mistakes happen all the time after all)
Jean-Claude Juncker would benefit from low expectations. The volume of remarks on this thread deriding him as a lush testify to that.
I'm sure he will find a few apposite words. It's unlikely to be a game-changer either way but those who aren't high on the incense of the Church of Brexit will give him a fair hearing.
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
Here's why that's unlikely. Exports to EU as % of GDP:
Ireland 39.8 Germany 22.9 Denmark 21.5 Sweden 20.0 Spain 19.5 Italy 17.8 France 17.2 UK 12.8
Vote LEAVE should be texting these figures to all AB social group voters.
How cool would a union of Denmark (incl. Greenland etc), Iceland, Norway (with all their islands) and the UK be? After Brexit I'm sure the Danish will be well up for leaving the EU for our Atlantic Ocean Union.
Here's why that's unlikely. Exports to EU as % of GDP:
Ireland 39.8 Germany 22.9 Denmark 21.5 Sweden 20.0 Spain 19.5 Italy 17.8 France 17.2 UK 12.8
Does that Ireland figure include exports to the UK?
Yes, they're raw numbers. Ireland is the one country that - because it is so keyed into the UK market - might leave. On the other hand it's tax evasion optimisation industry is so important (importing and re-exporting iPads to shift the tax burden, for example) that it might need to stay in the EU to keep that position.
After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…
This poll was embargoed til 6pm but the embargo was busted by the Times and Britain Elects.
@paulwaugh: £30bn wiped off FTSE today, Remain camp point out. Purely on back of Brexit fears. And other European stock markets falling too
Let them eat sovereignty
Surely this is just a continuation of the stock markets being heavily correlated with oil price - both declines continued again on the 8th of June. Since the oil rebalancing is still a supply issue rather than demand - I can't see how Brexit is a factor, which will affect global supply negligibly.
Unless you can present a convincing case for causation over correlation then the case is weak.
Like remain in general, truth and accuracy not really important to our Scott right now.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.
I too have a big interest in that particular conflict.
If you like strategy games check out War in the East - a monster and not cheap - but what a game.
Anyway, turning to your point.
There are a number of ways Germany could have won, they could have treated the freed people of Ukraine etc as humans for a start.......
We should also never underestimate the effect of deliveries from us and USA, although I freely admit most of that came from the Americans. (ps I am not really talking about tanks and planes but more the food, transport and raw materials).
I'm a long time Gary Grigsby fan, though I think WITE was a rare misfire. It's _almost_ great. I prefer War in the Pacific : Admiral's Edition. I keep eyeing up War in the West, but Grigsby's never done airpower well imo, and there's so much of it to deal with!
I have most of the Eastern front strategy games.
It can take me 4 hours a turn on War in the East, but I can't think of another war game that I prefer even though I am a great fan of Operational Art of War 3 too.
Daniel Hannan 23m Daniel Hannan @DanHannanMEP What was it @JunckerEU said in his last intervention. Something along the lines of "deserters will be shot", wasn't it?
Fantastic news! Can't wait to see the drunken idiot tell us to all vote Remain or suffer the consequences.
Are Remain so completely out of touch, that they don't see there's nothing positive that Junker could add to the campaign?
Which national tv channels are going to run the drunk Junck video?
Sky will probably run it, they don't care about upsetting him.
I don't understand what Junker will actually do though. He's not going to debate anyone, though I'm sure Hannan will invite him to one.
He's going to turn up on the Eurostar, make a speech telling us to Remain or else, then f*** off back to his Brussles ivory towers feeling pleased with himself. The optics of that are absolutely terrible, don't the campaign see it?
How can they stop him - I thought the report was he needs to do it so he can argue he made an effort to stop it happening, but would only do so if it looked probable regardless. It's about him not us.
And in the process almost guarantees a few waverers move to the Leave side. If it really is too close to call, that could be the intervention that decides the result.
It's conceivable that Mr Juncker may urge the UK to vote leave, because it really isn't suited to the EU way.
Comments
It isn't always quite so busy, but people are getting a shade excited. Just wait until referendum night. Two or three thousand posts wouldn't be a surprise.
So it may not do much more harm so long as he doesn't just fling insults, which seems improbable, but Remain may need to change momentum, and this won't achieve that. What will?
'In a survey of 700 businesses by the Bertelsmann Foundation, 29% of British and German companies polled said they would either reduce capacities in the UK or relocate altogether in the event of a Brexit.'
Should have made it 49% to make it more frightening.
He's been out and about in Suffolk.
Does anyone have any info on how Labour's intervention has played out, as I'm not watching any news channel at the moment?
The REMAIN campaign have planned for Labour to be in the media for a couple of days to try to get across that Labour supports REMAIN.
The message Labour seem to be giving is that without a change to Freedom of Movement within the EU, then you should vote LEAVE.
If we Remain this is the future:
What If The EU Had 28 Member States With Equal Populations?
http://brilliantmaps.com/eu-28-equal/
[EndJoke]
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-nurse-former-green-party-11473156
Though I have this strange urge to BeLeave! tm for some reason.
I wonder if, in the event of a vote of no confidence, it would be possible for the Tories to appoint themselves a new leader in the 14-day window provided by the fixed term parliament act, before Parliament gets dissolved?
Because of cultural, legal and historical differences we have a very different vision of the relationship between the state and the individual. Junker, coming here in an honest attempt to persuade people why they should stay in the EU simply doesn't understand this and so doesn't see that he is part of the problem not the solution. I really don't see there is anything he can say which will help Remain and the danger for them is that he can do yet more harm.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/8362542/Bendicks-chocolate-factory-in-Winchester-to-move-to-Germany.html
I mean mints ! Bloody mints !
Europe - protecting German Manufacturers for decades.
I wonder if the response to Chilcot will be a little more partisan, given the memories are so recent and a lot of the actors still alive and well?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36516619
And UK exports to RoW via Rotterdam?
http://www.presidenstory.com/usimag/phot/33.jpg
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics/democratic-national-committee-breach-russians-donald-trump/index.html
"If it's a Yes we will say 'on we go', and if it's a No we will say 'we continue'"
"When it becomes serious you have to lie"
"I believe neither the French nor the Dutch rejected the constitutional treaties"
The final Quebec polls had the Leavers well ahead (4%, 6 %, 6%) respectively. I went to bed thinking Leave would definitely win. But nonetheless Remain did just scrape it.
There were about 12 % undecideds in the last polls, and they broke 10 % for Remain, 2 % Leave.
That is what Fear Porn can do.
It is Remain's Last Chance, and it could still work.
Sadly, it will most likely release a vast use of pesticides which will have damn all effect on them (they are significantly resistant) but will hammer many other species of butterfly and moth whose numbers are already struggling. (My current avatar is an Emperor moth on Dartmoor).
I'd only gone in for a cocktail....
OT, I really need to stay off YouTube - I've seen that VoteLeave ad about 350million a week so many times it's beginning to drive me in same.
SkyBet goes REMAIN 1.67, LEAVE 2.2 ..... crossover in the next 48hrs at this rate.
He's bound to be wrong :-)
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
If we remain in EU avg wage in South West will rise by £4,500 - from £26,000 to £30,500. If we leave wages will be 2.8% lower in real terms
Less government is generally a good thing in my view (although not taken to the extreme). Mr Junker is simply unnecessary. Sadly we'll be paying part of his costs to come and tell us how to vote. A wise Home Secretary would simply lock him up and deport him to Cuba and see if anyone cared. (Immigration mistakes happen all the time after all)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/735834856752599040
They even went down when "stay" was ahead I believe... .which you might struggle to get your head around.
After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…
This poll was embargoed til 6pm but the embargo was busted by the Times and Britain Elects.
It can take me 4 hours a turn on War in the East, but I can't think of another war game that I prefer even though I am a great fan of Operational Art of War 3 too.