Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
How exactly do the other economies "work better"?
Unemployment rate: UK 5.4% Eurozone 11.0%
Youth Unemployment Rate: UK 13.2% Eurozone 21.2%
Participation Ratio UK 78.3% Eurozone 56.8%
Nick believes that Germany = the EU. That's really the only economy in the EU which works better than ours overall, though they are helped hugely by an undervalued currency. The DM would be trading at parity with Sterling, if not slightly stronger.
I think Germany outperformed the UK when the DM was a lot stronger than the £. Economies tend to work well if they are well-manged both privately and publicly. Over-reliance on the exchange rate to sell your goods is very dangerous.
No they didn't, and when the advantage is structural it isn't very dangerous.
I think we must agree to differ - but I remember the 70-90s rather well.
I'm looking at the World Bank data and you're empirically wrong. Cumulative UK growth per capita since 1970 is 86.58%, for Germany it is 84.11% since 1970.
So you're saying that the German economy is now smaller than the UK economy or that at some point in that period we have begun slowly to catch up - I wonder how much of the is since we joined the EU
Are you thick? Over the same time period our per capita growth has been largely identical to Germany's per capita growth. Comparing absolute values is completely pointless because Germany has a 25% larger population.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
The big problem for me is that Leave seem to have no clear strategy or view about what actually comes next. Richard Tyndall has suggested an EEA/EFTA deal with an emergency immigration brake. Very attractive - but it seems to suggest no end to Free Movement as such and assumes somehow there'll be no significant cost attached. Try as I might I don't believe it will be that easy - and indeed if it was the 'Brexit deal' how will that go down with the millions planning to vote next week for a permanent end to immigration - because that is what so many actually want and they've been led to believe it's achievable. Nice article but 'fine words butter no parsnips' I'm afraid.
Thanks Cyclefree - although I think you underplay quite how divided our own nation will be after a Brexit vote, and the internal debates which will rage on. I'm far from convinced that Remainers will be hard to find a few months after the vote, particularly once some of the nonsense from the Leave campaigns doesn't survive reality.
I read Alastair Meeks' howl of frustration last night which got a big reaction. On one level I was with him, but I couldn't summon up enough enthusiasm for the EU to be furious with my fellow men; the flaws with the EU are manifest but I still can't see how leaving does anything other than damage ourselves. I think the campaign has brought out the worst in Britain - but if we do leave the argument for working internationally has a blank canvass, and there will be better images to put on it than the worst of Leave and Remain.
I've noted a few green shoots for Remain over the past day or so - some firming up I didn't expect, and I've finally agreed to get off my a**e and do some delivery. And the ultimate gamechanger - who cares about economists, politicians or business figures, when the 5th Doctor Peter Davison has just come out for Remain.....
I think you're right - either way next week is going to reveal a nation divided - quite bitterly and actually much more so than most of the politicians on both sides, which is why the compromise we'll end up with is going to annoy a huge number of voters.
Maybe an unfair comparison, but last May, UKIP took Thanet Council with a majority - the first place in the UK they had such influence. I thought this was fascinating and followed their progress closely. Where are we a year on?
The majority lasted till November, split apart by personality clashes, and inability to deliver the manifesto pledge on Manston airport. The leader was revealed not to have paid council tax, they've lost a seat in a by-election in January, and have had 2 councillors charged with shop-lifting.
It's so much easier to be 'against' things than responsible for delivering them - I fear the anger may be even greater when Leave campaigners are forced into the world of compromises, deals, and having to be accountable in favour of their brave new world.
That final question is a good one for all of us to ask of ourselves at all times. It is not one which I have seen any of the committed Leavers ask themselves, despite the abundant evidence that Leaving bears substantial risks. It seems to be a belief system rather than a policy, incapable of rebuttal by experience or logic.
Mr Meeks presumably you know some of these wonderfully pure and right on REMAIN people that have asked that of themselves ? Ideally wearing sackcloth and ashes, with a purity of thought at all times. Amen.
I agree with you, except we were told that we didn't need transitional controls because few A10 citizens would come. The populace didn't bring this on themselves. Labour did.
Agreed. I fear I will end up like one of those people who blame Fatcha for everything, only in this case it will all be Blair's fault.
Thanks Cyclefree - although I think you underplay quite how divided our own nation will be after a Brexit vote, and the internal debates which will rage on. I'm far from convinced that Remainers will be hard to find a few months after the vote, particularly once some of the nonsense from the Leave campaigns doesn't survive reality.
I read Alastair Meeks' howl of frustration last night which got a big reaction. On one level I was with him, but I couldn't summon up enough enthusiasm for the EU to be furious with my fellow men; the flaws with the EU are manifest but I still can't see how leaving does anything other than damage ourselves. I think the campaign has brought out the worst in Britain - but if we do leave the argument for working internationally has a blank canvass, and there will be better images to put on it than the worst of Leave and Remain.
I've noted a few green shoots for Remain over the past day or so - some firming up I didn't expect, and I've finally agreed to get off my a**e and do some delivery. And the ultimate gamechanger - who cares about economists, politicians or business figures, when the 5th Doctor Peter Davison has just come out for Remain.....
I think you're right - either way next week is going to reveal a nation divided - quite bitterly and actually much more so than most of the politicians on both sides, which is why the compromise we'll end up with is going to annoy a huge number of voters.
Maybe an unfair comparison, but last May, UKIP took Thanet Council with a majority - the first place in the UK they had such influence. I thought this was fascinating and followed their progress closely. Where are we a year on?
The majority lasted till November, split apart by personality clashes, and inability to deliver the manifesto pledge on Manston airport. The leader was revealed not to have paid council tax, they've lost a seat in a by-election in January, and have had 2 councillors charged with shop-lifting.
It's so much easier to be 'against' things than responsible for delivering them - I fear the anger may be even greater when Leave campaigners are forced into the world of compromises, deals, and having to be accountable in favour of their brave new world.
Yep - Leave on Leave is going to be nasty; way nastier than what we have had in this campaign.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Which democracies work better, Nick?
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Corrections: Spain - where thevSocialist party was up to its neck in corruption allegations. And Andreotti not Andretti.
Bloody iPads!
Less the Socialists in Spain, though they were guilty too, more PP and, in Catalonia, CiU.
So another Muslim fanatic in Europe is responsible for murder. No, Mr Tusk, it's not Brexit which threatens western civilisation it's the stupid border control policy of the EU. We've let in tens of thousands of migrants, amongst them Jihadists and once they're here we've given them free passage.
Nick Palmer, the EU is finished my friend. It had its day about 40 years ago. It's over.
Which EU countries work better than the UK? Italy, which has barely grown in a decade? Germany and Sweden, who have watched passively as they have been overwhelmed by unmanaged migration? Spain, with unemployment in the mid-20s for years on end? France, currently paralysed by strikes over the mildest labour reforms? Poland, who have just put the far right in governmenr?
If one looks across the European continent, the two well managed countries that stand out are Norway and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
And if things are so rosy in the UK why are we not expecting the £ and the FTSE to soar post-Brexit?
Do you have a forecast on what the level the £ will be five years after Brexit, Mr. Felix?
I think pretty much everyone knows that investors don't like uncertainty, and Brexit will bring at least a period of uncertainty. But markets settle down remarkably quickly once they are given enough clarity on future actions.
I won't predict how long the uncertainty will last, because much of that is dependent upon unknowables such as who will follow Cameron. But it needn't last long at all. And if the pound settles lower, so what? It's been as low as $1.05 in my working lifetime.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Which democracies work better, Nick?
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look ahead, less open to demogagy: Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland for a start - all have radical and populist movements, but political dialogue works in all of them. In Britain it's stifled by trench warfare and sensationalist media. Sure, Germany has a horrible past and we helped design Germany's constitution. But that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.
"The triumph of democracy, of liberal values, of “progressive” values (however we define these) are not inevitable."
Leads to children who have been raped not reporting their rapists as they are scared the rapists might suffer as they are immigrants/ coloured/ members of a minority group.
Does anyone here follow the derivatives markets, and if so do they have a view on whether waters will stay calm or not on this Friday's triple witching day?
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Which democracies work better, Nick?
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look ahead, less open to demogagy: Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Finland for a start - all have radical and populist movements, but political dialogue works in all of them. In Britain it's stifled by trench warfare and sensationalist media. Sure, Germany has a horrible past and we helped design Germany's constitution. But that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
Germany where they have a grand coalition? Pull the other one. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are all seeing populist surges as well.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
Cyclefree is really out-doing all superlatives, just another wonderful, wonderful article.
I think quite a modest amount of flexibility on the part of the EU would have persuaded enough Reluctant Leavers to be Reluctant Remainers.
I agree completely with your critique of Ms Cyclefree's piece and her previous contributions, and your succinct postscript.
Between them Cameron and the EU look like, between them, they are losing an unlosable referendum for precisely the reasons outlined by Ms C. The only bad luck involved is that they've caught a huge anti-establishment wave and the anti EU momentum will only be lost when the EU implodes; Brexit will doubtless accelerate that circumstance. There seems so other outcome possible.
An excellent article by Ms C.
The question in my head is about timing. Why did Cameron rush to the referendum, when he could have taken up to another 2 years? With more time he could have negotiated a better deal. He could have waited until after the French election next year, which I suspect will result in even tougher questions for the EU (and serve as a 'useful' warning against extremism). He could have used the channels of the establishment more subtly to lay a foundation for a remain vote. He could even have agreed 'lines of attack' with Labour.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
Nick seems to treat all of humanity rather like David Attenborough regards a troop of baboons. I don't think it's fair to characterise all pro-EU voices that way.
*U.K. POLL ON EU SHOWS 47% LEAVE, 40% REMAIN: TNS ONLINE POLL
Means Leave has to get just under 1 in 4 of the undecided to get a majority. Such evidence we have on the undecideds makes it much, much closer than that.
Whoa. How many consecutive polls now showing an increasing Leave lead? I'm starting to think not only that it might happen, but that it could be a significant vote in favour of Leave.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.
Another very, very good article from Ms @Cyclefree. So many of the guest articles on here are more informed than and worthy of being printed in the mainstream press.
Fair comment, but Shadsy does punt on his own account and usually wins! He also tends to fare well in PB's competitions, although unlike some (modesty prevents), he has yet to be a winner.
Whoa. How many consecutive polls now showing an increasing Leave lead? I'm starting to think not only that it might happen, but that it could be a significant vote in favour of Leave.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.
The Germans will care. If more net contributors followed us out the door the strain on them is going to become immense.
Another very, very good article from Ms @Cyclefree. So many of the guest articles on here are more informed than and worthy of being printed in the mainstream press.
Fair comment, but Shadsy does punt on his own account and usually wins! He also tends to fare well in PB's competitions, although unlike some (modesty prevents), he has yet to be a winner.
Oh he's shrew d'enough, but he doesn't always get it right.
Whoa. How many consecutive polls now showing an increasing Leave lead? I'm starting to think not only that it might happen, but that it could be a significant vote in favour of Leave.
Since Friday night we've had polls showing Leave leads of 7, 7, 7, 8 and 10 points. Remain with a mountain to climb.
TNS really should put the embargo time in the subject header and the top line of the email like ComRes do.
Did Reuters break the embargo?!
I wouldn't like to speculate.
People wot are privileged enough to get these polls prior to the embargo = "Experts" People wot have to wait for the embargo to see the polls = "Commoners"
It does seem that there is now a cluster of polls showing a lead of 7% or so for Leave. That is well outside the margin of error so if the polling companies have got this wrong they will be harking back to the good old days of 2015.
Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Which democracies work better, Nick?
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
Germany where they have a grand coalition? Pull the other one. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are all seeing populist surges as well.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
That is a spectacularly unpleasant response. The fact that two parties with different traditions can come together to govern for the good of Germany (as they would see it) surely makes Nick's point for him. And as Nick says also, all countries are having populist surges. The mark of their political maturity and strength is how they deal with them.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years.
What De Gaulle feared was that we would be a Trojan horse for the new dominant power across the ocean, not that we were not 'Europeans' per se.
People like IDS and Liam Fox epitomise what he was afraid of.
A man of great vision we might say. I think the American Enterprise Institute/G.W Bush United States has extremely marginal appeal in the UK, but a powerful faction in the Tory party. Hopefully that is changing.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
Oh, gosh. That is a very big statement Mr. Glenn. The strategic initiative on the Eastern Front shifted irrevocably to the Soviets at Kursk in July 1943, nearly a full year before the second front opened. Even if you take in the Western Allies bombing offensive (which really didn't get into top gear until well after Kursk), I think there is very little evidence that supports the contention it was a two front war that stopped USSR falling to the Nazis.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
Quite! We have rather a large moat too. This doesn't stop us welcoming immigrants (we have lots of previous on that and quite a lot of present too), but it does help with control.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.
The Balkans were less a factor in the failure to drive on Moscow than Hitler ordering the Wehrmacht to dick around in southern Ukraine during summer '41.
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
Oh, gosh. That is a very big statement Mr. Glenn. The strategic initiative on the Eastern Front shifted irrevocably to the Soviets at Kursk in July 1943, nearly a full year before the second front opened. Even if you take in the Western Allies bombing offensive (which really didn't get into top gear until well after Kursk), I think there is very little evidence that supports the contention it was a two front war that stopped USSR falling to the Nazis.
Mr Llama, the second front opened in July '43 - the invasion of Sicily
London, 14th June - The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out from polling day.
The survey of 2,497 adults in the UK gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 7 points over ‘Remain’. Voting intention among likely voters (including those not fully decided but leaning in one direction) is as follows:
Remain 40%, Leave 47%, Undecided/Would not vote 13%
Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.
Oh yes, I do agree, I'm sorry if it seemed otherwise. It's more a mantra of mine that calms the nerves which I wanted to share - I thought you might have worries about your own investment portfolio.
While I don't expect a collapse as such (cma I don't rule one out), the markets are going to be incredibly volatile for the rest of this year while the implications shake out.
David Cameron's ammunition doesn't have the usual weapons that the newspapers provided for him say back in GE2015. Doesn't particularly matter if the scare stories are true or not, the great British public doesn't believe him any more. The wolf did eventually come, mind...
!!! The phony war? What do you want in payment of this "debt"? Archangel?
The period after the fall of France was hardly phony...
True the Battle of Britain wasn't phony, but I can't see why Russia owes Britain a debt for that.
Without us there would have been no two-front war in Europe and the USSR would have fallen to the Nazis.
The USSR would have kicked Germany's arse with or without us. It's one of my specialist subjects . The only scenario in which I imagine Germany winning would be if it had launched Barbarossa in early May '41. It was Yugoslavia and the Balkans that screwed Hitler. Had he taken Moscow and Leningrad in '41, he might have forced a capitulation.
The Balkans were less a factor in the failure to drive on Moscow than Hitler ordering the Wehrmacht to dick around in southern Ukraine during summer '41.
You've got all the excellent agricultural land in Ukraine. Nice place to be a coloniser.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.
Alas Mr. M, I fail to see a connection between my post and your idea that we want others to follow us out. That is not something I have ever commented on.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Which democracies work better, Nick?
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
Countries where democracy IMO works better - more constructively, more willingness to look that's 60 years ago. How much longer should we expect special consideration for that?
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
Germany where they have a grand coalition? Pull the other one. Denmark, Sweden and Finland are all seeing populist surges as well.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
That is a spectacularly unpleasant response. The fact that two parties with different traditions can come together to govern for the good of Germany (as they would see it) surely makes Nick's point for him. And as Nick says also, all countries are having populist surges. The mark of their political maturity and strength is how they deal with them.
And in reality there is no strong voice other than Frauke Petry's to oppose the government in Germany.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
How exactly do the other economies "work better"?
Unemployment rate: UK 5.4% Eurozone 11.0%
Youth Unemployment Rate: UK 13.2% Eurozone 21.2%
Participation Ratio UK 78.3% Eurozone 56.8%
Nick believes that Germany = the EU. That's really the only economy in the EU which works better than ours overall, though they are helped hugely by an undervalued currency. The DM would be trading at parity with Sterling, if not slightly stronger.
I think Germany outperformed the UK when the DM was a lot stronger than the £. Economies tend to work well if they are well-manged both privately and publicly. Over-reliance on the exchange rate to sell your goods is very dangerous.
No they didn't, and when the advantage is structural it isn't very dangerous.
I think we must agree to differ - but I remember the 70-90s rather well.
I'm looking at the World Bank data and you're empirically wrong. Cumulative UK growth per capita since 1970 is 86.58%, for Germany it is 84.11% since 1970.
So you're saying that the German economy is now smaller than the UK economy or that at some point in that period we have begun slowly to catch up - I wonder how much of the is since we joined the EU
Are you thick? Over the same time period our per capita growth has been largely identical to Germany's per capita growth. Comparing absolute values is completely pointless because Germany has a 25% larger population.
No need to be rude. Only since the DDR was absorbed. The figures you quote do not show change over the period a point you choose to ignore. Incidentally also worth remembering that such growth has occurred during both the period of EU membership and relatively high levels of immigration - both of which Leave want to end. Funny that.
Attractive article, written with Cyclefree's usual verve and fluency.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Yep, I think this is largely true. But I don't think that people on the continent take time to understand how and why we are different. It is a very, very British (English) trait to react very badly if you perceive you are being told what to do by foreigners. For good or ill that has been the way it is for centuries, and the events of the 20th century only reinforced to us that we were right. If the UK is to play a full part in Europe, then it does have to be treated differently and the Europeans need to accept that. The tone of voice is extremely important.
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
I wonder if you are not touching on a truth that De Gaulle recognised but which has been suppressed for many years. The Brits just do not belong in a European project, we stand apart from Europe always have done and always will.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
Why would we want anyone else to follow us out of Europe? We're not trying to form a gang. I take the point that the EU has raised fudge and muddle to an art form - to its detriment.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.
Alas Mr. M, I fail to see a connection between my post and your idea that we want others to follow us out. That is not something I have ever commented on.
Ah, my mistake - I was alluding to the post you were replying to regarding Eire's likely exit post ours.
Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.
The market is forward looking - I think it's discounting what it perceives the Brexit result will be and how the flock will react. If your investing horizon stretches more than a month or two then I would suggest sitting pat until post Brexit. If we are leaving it'll take us years to do so and if we remain markets will bounce.
Out if interest has there been any "market mayhem" from yesterdays polls?
Didn't you see? The pound TANKED yesterday afternoon to....errr....as Robert kindly told us, exactly where it was on opening yesterday.
FTSE 100 down .9% today to below 6,000. A few days ago it was around 6,300.
While the FTSE's machinations are fascinating, it'll do you no harm to look at the five year performance of the FTSE. It's as much about commodity cycles as it is about Brexit shenanigans, though it's naturally a worry. It started the year @ around 5.8k and has been sloshing around ever since.
It's not often that it sinks 1 percent or more for a number of days in a row. It's likely that the possibility of Brexit may have contributed to that.
The market is forward looking - I think it's discounting what it perceives the Brexit result will be and how the flock will react. If your investing horizon stretches more than a month or two then I would suggest sitting pat until post Brexit. If we are leaving it'll take us years to do so and if we remain markets will bounce.
My incredibly secret and sophisticated investment strategy is based on 'it's an ill will that blows nobody any good'. Don't tell anyone, that's just between us, right?
By the way, looking at gilts the UK Government's cost of borrowing has today hit record lows; an upside to reduced tax revenues in the event of Brexit. Somebody should crunch the numbers...
20% of TNS's sample said they had already voted postally.
More likely to postal vote, more likely to register online for a panel maybe.
Any panel based VI survey will always overestimate turnout not just because people love a porky pie but also because the non voters don't sign up for them !
Differential turnout will help Remain significantly, I would've thought.
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.
Differential turnout is the great false hope of all losing sides. Couple of weeks ago it was Leave trying to convince themselves that they would be helped by it.
Differential turnout will help Remain significantly, I would've thought.
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.
Mr Dancer, I think it will be even more exciting than Election Night last year!
By what time are we expecting something close to a result?
Trying to decide whether to go to sleep and wake early, or to stay up the whole night. I'm three hours ahead of the UK so the polls close at 1am, alternatively I could wake up at 6am (3am) and watch from there.
At least, unlike the GE, there won't be loads of bets to make and wrong positions to undo, 1/8 on NOM, free money we all thought!
Comments
The majority lasted till November, split apart by personality clashes, and inability to deliver the manifesto pledge on Manston airport. The leader was revealed not to have paid council tax, they've lost a seat in a by-election in January, and have had 2 councillors charged with shop-lifting.
It's so much easier to be 'against' things than responsible for delivering them - I fear the anger may be even greater when Leave campaigners are forced into the world of compromises, deals, and having to be accountable in favour of their brave new world.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/742719036002340865
BREAKING: "The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out" say TNS #EUref
That won't be nice either.
So another Muslim fanatic in Europe is responsible for murder. No, Mr Tusk, it's not Brexit which threatens western civilisation it's the stupid border control policy of the EU. We've let in tens of thousands of migrants, amongst them Jihadists and once they're here we've given them free passage.
Nick Palmer, the EU is finished my friend. It had its day about 40 years ago. It's over.
I won't predict how long the uncertainty will last, because much of that is dependent upon unknowables such as who will follow Cameron. But it needn't last long at all. And if the pound settles lower, so what? It's been as low as $1.05 in my working lifetime.
Immigration, as you know, is drawn by ease of language and demand for low-skilled labour, which in turn relates to one of our problems - a preference for cheap labour over investment. It's not a sign of splendid health.
But while I wanted to disagree on the facts, mainly I wanted to warn about the implication, that with luck the Continent will respond to Brexit by feeling that we're something special and quite possibly right. Some will. Most won't, and in deciding how to vote, it's important not to delude ourselves.
To reply to TimT: nealry everything i write here is not about what I think personally, but how I believe political currents are moving. I don't feel President Trump would necessarily be a disaster - he's too unpredictable for that, and I like his distaste for contstant military intevention. But if he's elected, the reaction on this side of the pond will (I think!) be as i suggested - revulsion mixed with reluctant tolerance.
Leads to children who have been raped not reporting their rapists as they are scared the rapists might suffer as they are immigrants/ coloured/ members of a minority group.
You're jut another EUfanatic who, by all accounts, has no love lost for this country.
We trade, of course, but we do not fit in. Our whole cultural heritage is not not the same. We do not have the shared experience of other European nations (mostly of being ruled by the Germans or the French), our legal system is different, our relationship with the state is different.
The question in my head is about timing. Why did Cameron rush to the referendum, when he could have taken up to another 2 years? With more time he could have negotiated a better deal. He could have waited until after the French election next year, which I suspect will result in even tougher questions for the EU (and serve as a 'useful' warning against extremism). He could have used the channels of the establishment more subtly to lay a foundation for a remain vote. He could even have agreed 'lines of attack' with Labour.
What was the rush? Early retirement?
I think the establishment thought they would win 60/40 & issue would be dead & buried...seems highly unlikely that will be the case now.
People like IDS and Liam Fox epitomise what he was afraid of.
While I'll happily own that Britain has sometimes been its own worst enemy in dealing with our European partners, surely the majority of the ills in the EU today lie firmly at the door of the half-baked integration of the Eurozone, which has become an institutionalized system of beggar-thy-neighbour.
If it works for Europe to have 27, 31 or more countries in the EU, more power to them. The sooner the Eurozone pursues full monetary union the better. I cannot see good resulting from the current stasis.
I wonder if other pollsters will be issuing final pre-vote polls (as per ICM) soon.
People wot have to wait for the embargo to see the polls = "Commoners"
London, 14th June - The latest EU referendum voting intention survey by TNS gives the Leave campaign a significant lead nine days out from polling day.
The survey of 2,497 adults in the UK gives the ‘Leave’ campaign a lead of 7 points over ‘Remain’. Voting intention among likely voters (including those not fully decided but leaning in one direction) is as follows:
Remain 40%, Leave 47%, Undecided/Would not vote 13%
http://www.tnsglobal.co.uk/press-release/leave-campaign-ahead-latest-tns-poll
While I don't expect a collapse as such (cma I don't rule one out), the markets are going to be incredibly volatile for the rest of this year while the implications shake out.
Doesn't particularly matter if the scare stories are true or not, the great British public doesn't believe him any more. The wolf did eventually come, mind...
themselves (and they did so at GE2015 too).
I sympathise. Premature publishing is a nightmare
Quite intrigued to see how this goes.
It seems every time I do, a great poll comes out for Leave.
Dr. Prasannan, you may be right.
I've got the worst pun in PB history lined up for it.
UK: Women would vote #Remain (51%), men would vote #Leave (58%) (TNS poll).
Mr. Felix, you tinker, you.
Any panel based VI survey will always overestimate turnout not just because people love a porky pie but also because the non voters don't sign up for them !
Edited extra bit: edited for grammar purposes.
Trying to decide whether to go to sleep and wake early, or to stay up the whole night. I'm three hours ahead of the UK so the polls close at 1am, alternatively I could wake up at 6am (3am) and watch from there.
At least, unlike the GE, there won't be loads of bets to make and wrong positions to undo, 1/8 on NOM, free money we all thought!