Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree on Experts v Commoners
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyclefree on Experts v Commoners
Expertise is a valuable skill but one of the problems with experts is that all that knowledge can leave you unwilling or unable to persuade. If you think, if you know that X is the right answer and yet people persist in not agreeing, it is hard not to feel infuriated, not to feel that some combination of wilful stupidity and/or ignorance and/or bloody-mindedness is refusing to accept the …
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
REMAINS campaign has been going wrong since Cameron flew Obama in to threaten us. I think, at that moment, people switched off from a lot of the "experts" opinions.
Mervyn King, Baron King of Lothbury, Lord Digby Jones, James Dyson are all undeniably experts too - and experts in a field relevant to this debate - but for some reason are brushed aside by those proclaiming they want to listen to experts.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/denmarks-former-prime-minister-wades-eu-debate-brexit-not-lead-dexit/
A nice reminder of how the entire Kinnock Clan are firmly on the gravy train and laughing all the way to the bank...
Hedge against Brexit by buying tinfoil shares.
I agree entirely.
On an upbeat note, we have a great future according to the CPS.
http://www.cps.org.uk/publications/reports/the-great-overtake/?utm_content=buffer8eea4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Scott_P said:
Countries usually don’t knowingly commit economic suicide, but in Britain, millions seem ready to give it a try. On June 23, the United Kingdom will vote to decide whether to quit the European Union, the 28-nation economic bloc with a population of 508 million and a gross domestic product of almost $17 trillion. Let’s not be coy: Leaving the E.U. would be an act of national insanity.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/britain-flirts-with-economic-insanity/2016/05/01/bb8d7a4a-0e1f-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html
It's a decent article, but once more it's blathering on about the British Empire. This is as relevant as dragging up Hitler when discussing modern Germany. No one cares about the fecking Empire. Only nonagenarians can remember the Raj. My daughter's generation don't even know what the hell the Empire was. For them history is Tudors-WWI-Hitler.
I haven't done the analysis but it would seem credible to me (if we're just discussing numbers, rather than human beings) that while the UK hasn't the highest percentage of immigrants, it'll have one of the highest deltas in the last twenty years and (made up metric) one of the highest immigrant-per-square-foot rates in Europe. If I can be bothered, I'll actually do some sums and check later.
If you're calling it insanity, I think it's more likely to be a Munchean scream against globalisation.
On topic: Holy cow Cyclefree, you keep knocking it out of the park...great article.
It is far too early to call Brexit and I am certainly not doing so but the last paragraph is a question that will not just be asked by the bureaucrats of themselves. It seems to me very likely that if the UK does vote for Brexit others will follow in our path. Those who are net contributors and have contrived not to join the Euro such as Sweden and Denmark are the most obvious but Ireland and Holland, whilst trapped in the Euro, will have some thinking to do too.
Brexit would shake the EU to its foundations. It would be a parting gift from the British people.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-14/cameron’s-deceit-and-lies-what-he-promised-what-he-delivered
ISTR that world-wide communism was believed to be inevitable at one time. It was the way history was going.
But the conclusions are in my view mistaken, and, more important, have no chance of acceptance on the Continent. British exceptionalism is seen as all right up to a point (World War II, ancient Parliament, freedom of speech) but vastly overrated in the modern era, where other democracies work more constructively, other economies work better and other political classes are, frankly, less up themselves than the British.
There are 28 members, one of which is contemplating walking out against the advice of the majority of its own elected leaders of nearly all persuasions. It's going to be seen as a Trump-like populist revolt, to be treated with the same mixture of revulsion and resigned tolerance that we will treat a possible President Trump.
That's not a reason to accept their view - sure, they might all be wrong. But it's important that we don't kid ourselves into thinking that we can walk out, turn round and get an understanding reception. It'll be difficult and unpleasant and severe damage will result. If we think that it's nonetheless worth it, so we can be "free" of European consensus, so be it. But it's important not to hope to wreck a marriage and then be good friends. It doesn't usually happen..
Unemployment rate:
UK 5.4%
Eurozone 11.0%
Youth Unemployment Rate:
UK 13.2%
Eurozone 21.2%
Participation Ratio
UK 78.3%
Eurozone 56.8%
What this is, is a resettlement between the EU and the UK. The EU wants to turn into a single state, and we do not want to be a part of that process. The only way to avoid that process is to leave the EU, IMO, at any cost. If our move to the exit door leads to the break up of the EU, then it was not a very solid foundation. Yes we are a big player, yes we're still a nuclear power and we have a permanent UNSC seat but the EU, which has pretensions of nationhood, must learn that we cannot be leaned on permanently for foreign policy and trade objectives while they persist in forcing their single most unpopular policy onto the UK without any reform or restrictions.
The UK wants an economic partnership with the EU and it is possible to achieve such a partnership without being a member. A vote to leave, should it occur, would be a natural realignment of our national policy with our national aims. Currently our national policy is to seek meaningless opt-outs from the EU's political ambition while the public are only really interested in being able to trade freely and go on holiday to Europe.
I think the fair-minded will inevitably reach the conclusion that despite the serious and potentially damaging problems which may lie ahead for the British people, our heightened dissatisfaction, our deep-seated resentment over the ways in we have been treated, some of it dating back to the unjust terms of our original entry (over such relatively trivial matters as fishing), has meant that we have now reached the point where we are not prepared to see our position deteriorate further, which many of us fear will prove to be the case were we to vote REMAIN.
The British are a very tolerant, accommodating, understanding and generous people until our collective gander is up, which now certainly appears to be the case.
We need to be clear that no one knows what will happen tomorrow. We can model it, forecast it, speculate on it (and what is PB for, if not that?) and dream about it. We cannot know.
I'm setting my watch..
To connect with our confrères over the water here's a little reminder of history and their own childhoods.
Mes amis, que reste-t-il
À ce Président futile
Espagne, Italie
Toute la Méditerranée
Irelande, Irelande!
n.b. the original:
Mes amis que reste-t-il
À ce Dauphin si gentil ?
Orléans, Beaugency,
Notre Dame de Cléry,
Vendôme, Vendôme !
Le Carillon de Vendôme is perhaps the oldest French folk song. It goes back to C15th and bemoans the loss of French possessions to the English at the end of the 100 years' war. It is still sung nowadays!
The tune is to the carillon of bells at Beaugency.
http://chansons-net.com/index.php?param1=EN00229.php
I think we are heading straight to a future without the EU in its current form; a two speed Europe at the very least, whether Britain is in or out. The EU needs a reality check, fast.
Looking at an 18th century perspective, taxes mainly meant tariffs, stamp taxes and duties on teas etc.
Hence the wider argument on trade barriers and life post brexit?
A @NickPalmer says, the majority of them are advising us to stick with the ever-closer union. If electoral necessity hadn't persuaded the PM to offer & hold a referendum, we'd be sticking with ever-closer union and those in favour would still be claiming that the EU barely registered in the electorate's concerns.
Seems Sony are going to throw the farm at VR, despite their kit being significantly worse than HTC vive & rift.
I think quite a modest amount of flexibility on the part of the EU would have persuaded enough Reluctant Leavers to be Reluctant Remainers.
Without wishing to treat oo much on another sensitive topic, it's a similar way I feel to people who feel faith is under pressure from increased secularisation with all sorts of measures, and I come to feel, well, if that, after thousands of years of much much worse, is too much for your institutions, isn't that the institution's fault.
PS I'm surprised you didn't notice my inner younger socialist self shyly popping her head out. Your party could once have had people like me on its side. Not with that scruffy nit in charge......
The key is right here :
"has led it to a stupidly rigid approach. The principle of free movement cannot be questioned said Mrs Merkel. Yes, it can. It should be. But if the principle is good, its practical application should change with the times."
I read Alastair Meeks' howl of frustration last night which got a big reaction. On one level I was with him, but I couldn't summon up enough enthusiasm for the EU to be furious with my fellow men; the flaws with the EU are manifest but I still can't see how leaving does anything other than damage ourselves. I think the campaign has brought out the worst in Britain - but if we do leave the argument for working internationally has a blank canvass, and there will be better images to put on it than the worst of Leave and Remain.
I've noted a few green shoots for Remain over the past day or so - some firming up I didn't expect, and I've finally agreed to get off my a**e and do some delivery. And the ultimate gamechanger - who cares about economists, politicians or business figures, when the 5th Doctor Peter Davison has just come out for Remain.....
If Gove could get the following, my favourite paragraph in your piece, into a speech he might yet ensure a landslide for Leave. Liberating those who like to think of themselves as liberals and progressives to shake away the worries of restricting freedom of movement, and become proud Brexiteers.
'The person moving may feel free, depending on whether they are doing so voluntarily or because they have to to survive. The person who finds their home town changed, swiftly and without their consent, may not think of this as freedom but imposition. People are not just economic units, not just “new citizens”; not interchangeable units like cheese.
Speaking of which, @Shadsy pops up in the DT today.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/britain-is-betting-more-on-brexit-but-im-punting-on-remain/
There is no status quo option on the ballot paper; remain would have us believe there is.
Greece?
Italy? Remember Operazione Mani Pulite? Andretti and his links to the Mafia?
Belgium?
France? Where several former Heads of State have been investigated for criminal offences?
Spain? Where the Socialist party was up
Ireland? Charlie Haughey?
This is not about British exceptionalism. But it is about the rest of the EU taking Britain seriously. We are not a two-but country and have much to teach about stable political constitutional settlements. We helped write Germany's after all. It is about the EU doing a bit of self-criticism. The reason immigration is such a concern is because so many of their people only see a future here. That is hardly evidence of a superior democracy or economy.
If one looks across the European continent, the two well managed countries that stand out are Norway and Switzerland, neither of which are in the EU.
German economic performance is legendary. Doubly so, when you consider the state of the country 70 years ago. In 1945, the country was in ruins. 20% of all housing had been destroyed, the male labour force more than decimated. Yet, within ten years people were talking about the 'German economic miracle'. Japan has a similar story, despite being in an even worse state. Yes, there was the Marshall Plan and the global economy was simpler, but a good deal was down to a well managed economy.
However, when we all start navel-gazing and worrying about economic collapse, we should keep in mind how resilient countries can be, even in the face of disaster.
If you have not yet read it, I highly recommend 'How Risky is it Really?' by Ropeik. I think reading it would add a couple of tweaks to an already very refined appreciated of the art of persuasion.
In particular, he addresses four areas where areas where our cognitive abilities lead us to (potentially valid) positions that a purely objective, rational analysis of facts would not: brain structure and chemistry, brain heuristics for interpreting imperfect data, our basis personality, and peer/social pressures or culture.
I think you would thoroughly enjoy the book if you have not yet read it, and find it very useful in your work.
So we have 2 mules possibly leading/pushing the cart over a cliff......
The start of our issue with immigration was when we were the only major economy accessible to citizens of the A10 countries as well as a continuing legacy of the Commonwealth. We brought that on ourselves.
The EU has been very effective in copying many of our enduring constitutional principles, not least in the art of fudge and avoiding neat, consistent solutions just for their own sake. The fact that we still haven't sorted out a viable federal solution for our own country should give anyone pause before lecturing everyone else on such matters.
I didn't realise you were still under the weather. Get well soon and have a good holiday. God bless.
Another very good read, Miss Cyclefree
BRITISH BRICKLAYER:
"I don't like my wages as a brickie being cut by two-thirds because if I say no, my ganger will find a Pole or Lithuanian eager for the chance to take my job. And I don't like having to organise my visits to the chipshop for when the pavements aren't blocked by Pakistanis coming out of the mosque either".
EXPERT (probably educated at a private school only just outside the HMC, or maybe at a "good" state school, and a proud alumnus of a university that was assuredly never called a polytechnic and is only just outside the Russell Group):
"I hear what you're saying, you dirty commoner, but I'm an expert. And while nobody expects you to rise above thoughts determined by your immediate animalistic needs, I'm afraid that we clean people do know things rather better than you do."
That said, I also think we need to be very wary about looking for equivalents to our perspective elsewhere. Anyone believing that Ireland might follow us out of the EU at some stage clearly knows absolutely nothing about Irish history or the very strong cultural and emotional links that Ireland has with Catholic southern Europe.
Bloody iPads!
On that note, if this is what the market reaction to the threat of Brexit is going to be then the final chamber in Dave's gun might end up being a blank.
We have a shared experience of being at once part of Europe and apart from it. The Russians owe us a historic debt for buying them time to deal with the Nazi invasion. They too see themselves as a great historic nation which is not treated with sufficient respect on the world stage. They too have staked a position against international institutions being able to overrule national sovereignty.
Interesting tactic to carry on project fear and in line with that Cameron / ITV stitch up.
No facts quoted and no reason to vote other than "choose a stronger future" "your future is at stake".
Person addressed to is 100% for LEAVE.
Politicians, mostly, are servants of the voters. Leaders, of which we have precious few in the political arena of the major parties, never disrespect their followers. If they do, they soon have none. Cameron is in the process of learning this most basic of leadership lessons.
Populist waves like Trump's may seem inarticulate. But it is the job of the politicians, not the unwashed masses you seem to revile, to understand and solve the issues that have given rise to them.
"Britain is betting more on Brexit, but I'm punting on Remain"
MATTHEW SHADDICK
LADBROKES' HEAD OF POLITICAL BETTING
Shadsy's not often wrong it has to be said.
Between them Cameron and the EU look like, between them, they are losing an unlosable referendum for precisely the reasons outlined by Ms C. The only bad luck involved is that they've caught a huge anti-establishment wave and the anti EU momentum will only be lost when the EU implodes; Brexit will doubtless accelerate that circumstance. There seems so other outcome possible.
Its just that autocrats are so hard to get to grips with, be that Putin or Erdogan. I just don't see how we can practically deal with them - we're certainly not in a position to pursue anything bilaterally.