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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ORB poll has Remain’s lead shrinking

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,528

    The voice of Remain hope:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 28m28 minutes ago
    Look at the Leave demographic. Look at the Remain demographic. Then match them against election turnouts.

    But how many working class voters don't vote in elections because they think it will do no good.

    We may, may I say, be looking at a different dynamic here which sees a higher working class turnout because they think something might change.

    In any case someone should explain to Dan that Leave are ahead among older voters who have been most likely to vote in recent elections.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Yes and no. The EU can do any old deal with Norway and nobody will get all that fussed. They will not want to give Britain a helpful deal to avoid other major countries getting similar ideas. A deal will eventually be done, of course, but expect it to take years and have rough edges when it finally materialises.
    Nick you still ignore the EFTA route. The EU has no control over who joins EFTA. I would still suggest that is the most likely outcome of a Leave result.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?

    Yes because everything that is bad in the world is because of the BRUSSELS BEAUROCRATS, and everything will be different when we have our FREEDOM.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    In an open letter the Leave campaigners say: "There is more than enough money to ensure that those who now get funding from the EU - including universities, scientists, family farmers, regional funds, cultural organisations and others - will continue to do so while also ensuring that we save money that can be spent on our priorities.

    "If the public votes to leave on 23 June, we will continue to fund EU programmes in the UK until 2020, or up to the date when the EU is due to conclude individual programmes if that is earlier than 2020."

    http://news.sky.com/story/1711514/corbyn-attempts-to-revive-labour-remain-campaign
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,528

    Or maybe Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.

    Or maybe SOME Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.

    I've corrected your statement.

    Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    Nick you still ignore the EFTA route. The EU has no control over who joins EFTA. I would still suggest that is the most likely outcome of a Leave result.
    It's not surprising that someone motivated by 'sovereignty' fails to understand the difference between power and control.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,528
    So I think we can say for definite that:

    "Honest John Major's intervention will have a big effect"
    "Sarah Wollaston's defection will have a big effect"
    "The collapse in sterling will have a big effect"

    proved to be as prophetic as "Barak Obama's intervention will have a big effect".

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Or maybe SOME Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.

    I've corrected your statement.

    Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.

    And billionaire hedge fund Leavers are not overly concerned about pay rates or worker rights. I'd argue that like Stuart Rose and PB posters they are probably best not seen as representative voters.

  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    I'm not sneering. I'm asking a legitimate question.
    Well, you have a genuine answer. Ignore the sneering comment, it's directed at Labour types, especially Tyson.

    One of the issues I have with the way migration has been used is that "these people do the jobs the locals will not do". What (as Kate Hoey points out) they leave out is "at the price the employer wants to pay".
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    I've been quite shocked tonight at the bitterness from some Remain supporters. People like Alastair who write thread headers should do better by themselves than that.

    It's rather sad and not, well, not very British actually.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,528

    Yes because everything that is bad in the world is because of the BRUSSELS BEAUROCRATS, and everything will be different when we have our FREEDOM.
    Whether anything changes as to London property ownership in Brexit happens I don't know.

    But I'm confident nothing will change if Cameron and Osborne remain in charge.

    To be honest I doubt many people outside of the London economic area give a toss about London house prices in any case.

  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Janet and John aren't on the dole. Despite being less highly educated than Bogdan, their native English abilities mean that they are employed at the same company as clerical assistants on higher wages than Bogdan. When Bogdan is sent packing, John will be demoted to coffee maker (on a higher wage than Bogdan, but less than he earned previously). Janet will lose her job - a victim of the crash in demand for the company's EU exports which now attract a 10% tariff.
    In your world, not in mine.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Whether anything changes as to London property ownership in Brexit happens I don't know.

    But I'm confident nothing will change if Cameron and Osborne remain in charge.

    To be honest I doubt many people outside of the London economic area give a toss about London house prices in any case.

    I thought Leavers preferenced the people of their country.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Would EFTA call their bluff if they said, "Either you block UK membership or we pull the plug on the treaty. Otherwise it's join the EU or nothing?" (And they could make the EU option as attractive as they want.)

    As an aside, funnily enough the current EFTA treaty explicitly has our withdrawal from it included in the text.
    Yes EFTA would call their bluff. As I said, if the EU pulled the plug on the EEA then Sweden and Denmark would leave the EU.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?

    Broadly yes. Down to free movement of capital. One of the rules.

    We can though (which we are now doing) tax them a little more than we did before.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,528

    And billionaire hedge fund Leavers are not overly concerned about pay rates or worker rights. I'd argue that like Stuart Rose and PB posters they are probably best not seen as representative voters.

    Certainly I doubt many hedgies and fatcats care about pay rates and workers rights. Beyond reducing them where possible.

    But Remain's problem is that its chosen to side with the hedgies and fatcats and told everyone to vote for how the hedgies and fatcats want.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Broadly yes. Down to free movement of capital. One of the rules.

    We can though (which we are now doing) tax them a little more than we did before.

    We can do all kinds of things. We have chosen not to. For a start Boris could have insisted on more social housing builds as parts of planning approvals. Or he could have refused planning. But he did neither. So now we have ghost streets and property developments where nobody actually lives, and an outward ripple effect that has increased demand and raised prices. Boris did that, not the EU.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    Yes EFTA would call their bluff. As I said, if the EU pulled the plug on the EEA then Sweden and Denmark would leave the EU.
    Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.

    A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    It's not surprising that someone motivated by 'sovereignty' fails to understand the difference between power and control.
    It is surprising that someone who favours closer unions and free trade is so dismissive of the treaties that underpin those things. The EU has no power over EFTA short of revoking the treaties which will be unacceptable and terminal for some of its members. I know you really don't want to here it but that is where the power lies. If the UK leaves (and I am still not convinced they will) then the EU can ill afford to threaten actions that will drive other countries (particularly the rich net contributor ones) to follow suit.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    Certainly I doubt many hedgies and fatcats care about pay rates and workers rights. Beyond reducing them where possible.

    But Remain's problem is that its chosen to side with the hedgies and fatcats and told everyone to vote for how the hedgies and fatcats want.

    A lot of hedgies and fat cats support Leave. They know a Boris government will look after them royally and also sense opportunities to make a killing from Brexit. I make them right on both counts.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,528

    I thought Leavers preferenced the people of their country.

    London is a different country as its residents so often tell us.

    :wink:

    Anyway most Londoners are now living in Essex, Kent, Hertfordshire or further afield. Even Leamington Spa.

    :wink:

    Still if Leave win London can keep being the self-styled 'World Capital' and be all international and unlimited immigration if it wants. As long as it contributes enough taxes.

    And now its goodnight from me and goodnight from him time.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    If Leave wins and Boris becomes PM and did in fact call an early GE for a "mandate" what would UKIP do?

    Would UKIP stand as usual?

    Or would it urge people to vote for Boris?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    ORB still has Remain way ahead on Wisdom Index:

    54% expect Remain win
    24% expect Leave win

    That is the reason why Remain is still favourite.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108

    Hopefully the undecideds will just stay home.

    How's the weather looking for next week Thursday?
    Long range forecast for Chipping Sodbury (don't blame me, that's what the website opened with)

    Thursday 6/23/16
    Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 21C. Winds SW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40%.

    pretty much the same across the country.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675
    edited June 2016
    MikeL said:

    ORB still has Remain way ahead on Wisdom Index:

    54% expect Remain win
    24% expect Leave win

    That is the reason why Remain is still favourite.

    How "wise" was the Wisdom Index for GE2015?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    edited June 2016
    ORB: More Remain voters know when the referendum is:

    79% of Remain voters know referendum date
    72% of Leave voters know referendum date

    Arguably only of minimal relevance but could be a pointer that remain voters more likely to turnout.

    ie Leave voters may be more fired up and may say they are more likely to vote - but if they don't even know when the referendum is, will they actually deliver on the day?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675

    It would be really great if the Sun took that headline from the Sunil on Sunday

    They did! But we can forgive The Sun, as they are on the same side as us!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/720994959403446272
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    edited June 2016

    They did! But we can forgive The Sun, as they are on the same side as us!

    Believe in BRITAIN!

    Be LEAVE!

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/720994959403446272
    Sunil - have you requested your fee yet?

    I think it should be a big one!

    10% commission on each paper sold?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675
    edited June 2016
    Pauly said:

    Is anyone else spooked by the fact that the Suns declaration looks so much like Sunils repeat textual BeLeave posts...

    My cheque is in the post?

    or is it their cheque? :lol:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    edited June 2016

    How "wise" was the Wisdom Index for GE2015?
    It was Con +3 I think - 35/32.

    Of course this Wisdom is different - it's just asking who the winner will be, not vote shares.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675
    RobD said:

    OMG look at the Sun! Where's Sunil

    Um, I'm here :lol:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255


    Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.

    A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.

    The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.

    I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    MikeL said:

    If Leave wins and Boris becomes PM and did in fact call an early GE for a "mandate" what would UKIP do?

    Would UKIP stand as usual?

    Or would it urge people to vote for Boris?

    UKIP would stand. Keep Boris honest, if nothing else.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    SeanT said:

    I wonder if ISIS have planned something really quite special and horrible for France during these Euro games

    First get some hooligans to rustle up trouble

    Then a nasty policewoman beheading on Facebook.

    Then....

    There are 5 million Muslims in France. They just need 500 radicalised and ready, and they could cause total mayhem.

    Let's hope not.. blimey!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    edited June 2016
    MikeL said:

    Sunil - have you requested your fee yet?

    I think it should be a big one!

    10% commission on each paper sold?
    Is Sunil a 'no win, no fee' sloganeer?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.

    I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
    I'd say that contradicting a clear mandate to end free movement as soon as you've won a referendum would be 'desperate and fanciful', but that's just me.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.

    I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
    On top of that the man in charge of Norway's sovereign wealth fund has said it will invest in Britain if we leave.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675

    Is Sunil a 'no win, no fee' sloganeer?
    IANAL - I am not a lawyer :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675

    On top of that the man in charge of Norway's sovereign wealth fund has said it will invest in Britain if we leave.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/739194843537264641
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    I'd say that contradicting a clear mandate to end free movement as soon as you've won a referendum would be 'desperate and fanciful', but that's just me.
    Ah the old tactic of changing tack when you are losing the argument.

    Do I assume I should add you to the list of Remainers who think that those who voted for staying in the EU should have no further say in the future of the country just because they were defeated on one specific issue? If not then there will most likely be a clear majority of people in favour of the EFTA route. The Remainers have spent the last 3 or 4 months moaning that Leave do not have a post Brexit plan and now they moan that a suggested post Brexit plan won't be what people voted for. You can't have it both ways.

    We vote to leave the EU. After that it is up to the Government, Parliament and the electorate to decide what sort of future trading relationship they want to pursue.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553

    Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.

    A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.

    Joining EFTA wouldn't give automatic EEA membership.
    Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere :) Sovereign wealth fund, yes, but Wallenberg. Sweden is akin to a local superpower, and not just looking west and south.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited June 2016
    John_N4 said:

    Joining EFTA wouldn't give automatic EEA membership.
    Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere :) Sovereign wealth fund, yes, but Wallenberg. Sweden is akin to a local superpower, and not just looking west and south.

    Not so. The UK is an independent signatory to the EEA agreement. As long as we do not breach the terms of the treaty (which means we have to either be in the EU or EFTA) then we remain a part of that treaty.

    And in GDP terms Norway and Sweden are pretty evenly balanced.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852

    Not so. The UK is an independent signatory to the EEA agreement. As long as we do not breach the terms of the treaty (which means we have to either be in the EU or EFTA) then we remain a part of that treaty.
    Look at how the EU played the Greek crisis if you don't believe their resolve to engage in high-stakes brinkmanship. The risk of financial contagion from ejecting Greece from the Euro was far greater than the fall out would be from playing hardball over the EEA. Brexit raises the stakes but isn't a winning hand in itself.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553

    Not so. The UK is an independent signatory to the EEA agreement. As long as we do not breach the terms of the treaty (which means we have to either be in the EU or EFTA) then we remain a part of that treaty.
    Thanks for the heads-up. I knew that belonging to EFTA didn't bring automatic EEA membership, but didn't realise that the same applies to belonging to the EU.

    And in GDP terms Norway and Sweden are pretty evenly balanced.

    Sweden's is maybe 30% bigger, and maybe the same proportion smaller per capita. But Sweden has more muscle in the region. Not particularly in Norway itself, but in Finland, the Baltic states, even Russia.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    Y0kel said:

    IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.

    Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
    IS related channels have been very quick out of the blocks on this one. The so called Ramadan terror offensive by IS is properly underway. They will be disappointed if they don't get 3 or 4 good blows in against the collective 'West' .

    I'm still not 100% on the Orlando killings how much anyone related to IS really had a role but this one looks legit due to the speed and certainty of the announcement.

    On a plus note going to France shortly and for whatever reason I am not going to be surprised if something notable happens there or in its close neighbours in the very near future.
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    SeanT said:

    ISIS are at bay in MENA. Losing the war. Their only hope is to sow anarchy in Europe and America, and attract fighters and money again.

    I do not believe there is any future for mass Muslim immigration into the West, as long as Islam has this psychosis of anti-liberal hatred,

    Trump is a repugnant jackass, but he is right on this (and he could win on this alone)

    How can he be right? he's not even consistent in his own statements
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    sarissa said:

    Long range forecast for Chipping Sodbury (don't blame me, that's what the website opened with)

    Thursday 6/23/16
    Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 21C. Winds SW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40%.

    pretty much the same across the country.
    So a normal British summers day then. Lol.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675

    Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
    Saw something on Twitter about a breaking hostage situation in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    How can he be right? he's not even consistent in his own statements
    He's right in a fashion because he has tapped into something your average Joe thinks but the so called 'elite' that dominate political and media discourse seemed determined to evade or suppress.

    Obama knocked on about gun control not the underlying cause of the hatred and motivation to kill. Whilst access to weapons is an issue the determined person can get if they want and have cash. The core issue is that the tolerance , the excuse making for those who despise our culture, our liberal democratic outlook and morality are plain bull and your average citizen doesn't buy it but gets slapped down for saying it and labelled insensitive or even racist.

    Worst possible figure as Trump is, this guy is prepared to say what many are thinking, 'stop talking soft crap and act'.


  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    @Sunil.. hopefully the Sun will pick up on your Red October sketch next ;)
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    Y0kel said:



    'stop talking soft crap and act'.


    this is the antithesis of a liberal democratic outlook
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307

    this is the antithesis of a liberal democratic outlook
    Not at all. Sometimes you have to fight, you have to turn the screw to defend values. Being moderate and liberal democratic doesn't mean being unwilling to take on with full effort, including absolutely unbending force where it is suitable, those who wish to bring fear and terror to a community of innocents.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    this is the antithesis of a liberal democratic outlook
    Nope - the best way to ensure peace is to have a large enough armed force to deter those who wish to attack you.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Y0kel said:

    He's right in a fashion because he has tapped into something your average Joe thinks but the so called 'elite' that dominate political and media discourse seemed determined to evade or suppress.

    Obama knocked on about gun control not the underlying cause of the hatred and motivation to kill. Whilst access to weapons is an issue the determined person can get if they want and have cash. The core issue is that the tolerance , the excuse making for those who despise our culture, our liberal democratic outlook and morality are plain bull and your average citizen doesn't buy it but gets slapped down for saying it and labelled insensitive or even racist.

    Worst possible figure as Trump is, this guy is prepared to say what many are thinking, 'stop talking soft crap and act'.


    Yep, you're right.

    Obama and The Guardian just cannot bring themselves to use the word 'Islam.' Or even 'Islamist.'

    It's pathetic really. These people imperil western civilisation, Mr Tusk.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675
    RobD said:

    @Sunil.. hopefully the Sun will pick up on your Red October sketch next ;)

    A great day, comrades, we sail into history! :)
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    Yes and no. The EU can do any old deal with Norway and nobody will get all that fussed. They will not want to give Britain a helpful deal to avoid other major countries getting similar ideas. A deal will eventually be done, of course, but expect it to take years and have rough edges when it finally materialises.
    Nick, totally agree! I am surprised at the lack of concern for one of our biggest recession recovery successes in UK if we do vote out next week, our car manufacturing industry. Especially at at time when the equally vital Oil&Gas and steel industries are taking such a huge hit and causing a real impact to the local economies in some parts of the UK. Another economic shock on the back of our exit from the EU may not see us being so lucky in areas like car manufacturing, an industry where the UK has surely been an attractive investment due to our current EU membership? How ironic if the supposed Leave Vote message of reducing immigration was to end up finally seeing unemployment in the UK rising substantially.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    SeanT said:

    I wonder if ISIS have planned something really quite special and horrible for France during these Euro games

    First get some hooligans to rustle up trouble

    Then a nasty policewoman beheading on Facebook.

    Then....

    There are 5 million Muslims in France. They just need 500 radicalised and ready, and they could cause total mayhem.


    There are more like 50,000 of them radicalised and ready.

    No exaggeration. When oh when will Europe wake up?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    A great day, comrades, we sail into history! :)
    "We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates!"

    Gets me every time.. LOL :D
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited June 2016
    Top Gear about to start on BBC America. With the addition of Extra Gear this is now a 2 hour slot, including commercials. This means I need to wait until 9.20 or so to start watching, to FF through the commercials, which seem to be mainly about catheters, car polishes or pillows.

    This the much vaunted and allegedly much improved episode 3.

    Unless this episode improves substantially I will stop watching the program. It's that bad.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675
    RobD said:

    "We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates!"

    Gets me every time.. LOL :D
    Um, you're only human :lol:

    But it will be REMAINER patrols and BREXIT debates this time around!!
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    edited June 2016
    nunu said:

    I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.

    Contrary to what some people fear though, if Leave win this then it will be all about Boris, Gove and team. Farage isn't mainstream even for us Leavers. I really can't abide the man, but I'm still voting Leave.

    I'm an internationalist :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    Um, you're only human :lol:

    But it will be REMAINER patrols and BREXIT debates this time around!!
    Will they be laying off their largest voting area?

    Doesn't quite have the same ring to it.... :p
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I had this gut feeling that if people started to believe Leave could win this vote, then it would win.

    Up until recent days, no matter what polls said, the feeling was that Remain would see it out but that point may have arrived where people think Leave could win.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    Just looking again at those polls and the YouGov sampling is actually relatively old compared to the other three.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

    If this were a General Election we'd note a significant and sizeable shift of opinion. That's real momentum.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Y0kel said:

    I had this gut feeling that if people started to believe Leave could win this vote, then it would win.

    Up until recent days, no matter what polls said, the feeling was that Remain would see it out but that point may have arrived where people think Leave could win.

    May I suggest a name for such a phenomenon.... tipping point. :D


    ... I'll get my coat.
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    So I will stick to my original forecast:

    Leave 55-60%
    Remain 40-45%
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320

    Their 6% view (as it would be) compared to the other 94% view.

    Their relationship with the EFTA countries is defined and controlled by the EEA Agreement. This is not other EU countries they can boss around nor do the EFTA members want further concessions from the EU. They are content with the relationship as it stands. Norway has incredibly high numbers opposing EU membership - over 70% in the last poll with less than 20% in favour.

    As such the EU has two choices. They either break the treaty or they suck it up.

    Since the UK joining EFTA and the EEA is the best way to continue trade I very much suspect the suck it up route will be the one taken.
    I remain utterly amazed at the sheer complacency of some on the Leave side when it comes to the EU renegotiating our trade agreements, travel etc in terms which are favourable to the UK on the back of leave vote in the EU Referendum. As if somehow, they will be more desperate to play ball and do business with the UK outside the EU than they were when Cameron tried to renegotiate our membership terms on the back of a possible exit.

    Take car manufacturing, do you want to make it easier or more difficult for the UK when you have countries who have been really suffering in the Eurozone, especially when you could do with that the investment and business being transferred to your country under far more favourable terms as a member of the EU?

    I can see why Leave have a polling bounce right now due to immigration, but I am struggling to see where they have managed to make the hard economic arguments which will protect and encourage more investment and jobs in the UK over the next decade if we leave. For me, we have thrived as a nation within the EU, but outside the Eurozone. How ironic would it be if our exit from the EU proved to be a tonic for the Eurozone.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    nunu said:

    I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.

    I am very comfortable with the fact that I am in the opposing camp to UKIP in this EU Referendum, and in particular a Ukip party led by Nigel Farage.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    fitalass said:

    I am very comfortable with the fact that I am in the opposing camp to UKIP in this EU Referendum, and in particular a Ukip party led by Nigel Farage.
    Because Farage will be in government after the referendum.. oh wait!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited June 2016
    Y0kel said:

    IS related channels have been very quick out of the blocks on this one. The so called Ramadan terror offensive by IS is properly underway. They will be disappointed if they don't get 3 or 4 good blows in against the collective 'West' .

    I'm still not 100% on the Orlando killings how much anyone related to IS really had a role but this one looks legit due to the speed and certainty of the announcement.

    On a plus note going to France shortly and for whatever reason I am not going to be surprised if something notable happens there or in its close neighbours in the very near future.
    Yokel, this is looking like yet another co-ordinated IS terrorist attack in France tonight while the world watches on?

    France has been, and remains one of my favourite holiday destinations. So that is extremely tragic and worrying news, and surely it must now be having an impact on its tourism trade like other countries across the Med who have also seen their tourism trade targeted by IS?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,675
    RobD said:

    Will they be laying off their largest voting area?

    Doesn't quite have the same ring to it.... :p
    Laying off their largest poll lead!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016
    Estobar said:

    Contrary to what some people fear though, if Leave win this then it will be all about Boris, Gove and team. Farage isn't mainstream even for us Leavers. I really can't abide the man, but I'm still voting Leave.

    I'm an internationalist :)
    Yes but this refurendum would not be happening without Farage. We saw at the GE that yes he cares about his principles but he also loves to be in the limelight. If we Leave and E.U migration controls are bought in I doubt he will say "OK folks I've done my job time to move out of the media and politics" rather he will turn his attention to other "the other" to continue his career. This will gain the attention of many of the tabloid press and many people will say "he's right" and start voting for him instead of the tories etc. Then tories will play his game to garner a few votes as they always have done. There is a constituency in this country that has never been OK with migration even if it falls. no matter how settled we become no matter how socially upwardly mobile (as many asians are) they will always be uncomfortable with a changed Britain. And he or some other politicians will exploit it. They will never be happy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    Sony have just bet the farm on VR at E3.....
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    nunu said:

    Yes but this refurendum would not be happening without Farage. We saw at the GE that yes he cares about his principles but he also loves to be in the limelight. If we Leave and E.U migration controls are bought in I doubt he will say "OK folks I've done my job time to move out of the media and politics" rather he will turn his attention to other "the other" to continue his career. This will gain the attention of many of the tabloid press and many people will say "he's right" and start voting for him instead of the tories etc. Then tories will play his game to garner a few votes as they always have done. There is a constituency in this country that has never been OK with migration even if it falls. no matter how settled we become no matter how socially upwardly mobile (as many asians are) they will always be uncomfortable with a changed Britain. And he or some other politicians will exploit it. They will never be happy.
    I agree with the second part but I truly do not think this will happen. I think you will find Boris moves to the centre (much as Red Mike has done). I know that sounds counterintuitive but I'm sure of it. Boris is an internationalist. Remember he was Mayor of London, now occupied by a Muslim, and he hated Zac's xenophobic campaign. If anything I think it's Cameron who has stirred up hatred.

    Farage is and will stay out on a limb. UKIP's polling is plodding at 14%.

    I'm very optimistic about our future. Just think of the Commonwealth: yes we did pretty bad things as colonialists. But we bucked up our ideas and opened our arms to those countries. As James Dyson said, that's where our natural allies are (literally in the case of the wars). We will have that wonderful sea-faring internationalist spring back in our step.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    nunu said:

    I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.

    I think this country is remarkably tolerant despite what some would have you believe. Whenever I travel to other developed countries it is quite eye opening how lucky we are to live in the UK.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MP_SE said:

    I think this country is remarkably tolerant despite what some would have you believe. Whenever I travel to other developed countries it is quite eye opening how lucky we are to live in the UK.
    Yes we are very lucky to live in the U.K many people tell me that we are very tolerant compared to even say New York.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    nunu said:

    Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......

    Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016

    Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
    Remember 2015 and the broad trends reported by many companies and remain have a large lead on the economy.


    As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.

    Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    In the event of a leave vote, Farage gets given some plaudits then gets put out to grass, his job done.

    A knighthood or even a life peerage would seem about right. A career on the talk shows but no prospect of holding executive office. I think he'd be delighted with this.

  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    nunu said:

    Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
    They're politicians and they're about to be booted out of No.10 and No.11 in the most ignominious fashion. It is disgusting but given their track record I'm not surprised.
  • Estobar said:

    I'm very optimistic about our future. Just think of the Commonwealth: yes we did pretty bad things as colonialists. But we bucked up our ideas and opened our arms to those countries. As James Dyson said, that's where our natural allies are (literally in the case of the wars). We will have that wonderful sea-faring internationalist spring back in our step.

    Over here in this bit of SE Asia, we're a nobody. At the moment at least we're a nobody that's part of a big gang. But if (in the opinion of the government of this country) we are foolish enough to leave the EU, we'll be back to being a nobody again. Unless we throw money at the problem, but I don't think increasing the foreign aid budget will be on the cards.

    And why would leaving the EU suddenly change our relationship with the Commonwealth? Why would any increased focus on the Commonwealth be for any reason other than desperation because no-one in the EU wants to be our friend any more? It's like divorcing our wife and going back to the woman we dumped for her and pleading with her to take us back. Turns out she's got Chinese tastes now.

    Countries like Australia and India have moved on. We hold sway in the EU - or could do if we put our mind to it. The EU holds sway in the world. That's our best bet for internationalism.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Tim_B said:

    Nope - the best way to ensure peace is to have a large enough armed force to deter those who wish to attack you.
    That only works if you're extremely wisely governed. Otherwise the fact of having a powerful military causes you to start wars unnecessarily which will sometimes turn out to be counter-productive, as we saw with Iraq.
  • nunu said:

    As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.

    Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
    Agreed, disgusting and combines a terrible message from a 2% rated politician. Another boneheaded theme from REMAIN.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,079
    nunu said:

    Remember 2015 and the broad trends reported by many companies and remain have a large lead on the economy.


    As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.

    Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
    Following Brexit, I forecast an emergency budget to counter the economic hit. This will include an increase in VAT and a freeze of state pensions.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    If EU leaders had been willing to heed the results of the Dutch and French Referenda in 2005; if they had been wiling to accept that growing numbers of Europeans do not want More Europe; had they been prepared to negotiate seriously with Cameron on the basis of his Bloomberg speech, we would not be heading for Brexit.

    We are where we are because political leaders will usually prefer to ignore growing problems until they become critical.
  • nunu said:

    Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......

    Are you sure? I thought the last pro YES poll was 6th sept yougov and a 2% lead.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016

    The voice of Remain hope:

    (((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 28m28 minutes ago
    Look at the Leave demographic. Look at the Remain demographic. Then match them against election turnouts.

    The sound of someone whistling to keep their spirits up. 700 Leave volunteers in Newham says there has got to be a fair chance he is wrong about the ability of the Leave demographic to turn out.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Barnesian said:

    Following Brexit, I forecast an emergency budget to counter the economic hit. This will include an increase in VAT and a freeze of state pensions.
    Nothing is going to happen for up to 2 years - on 24th June we will still be in the EU.47
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    test
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Ye gods I'm back!

    If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.

    If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.

    *applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.


This discussion has been closed.