(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 28m28 minutes ago Look at the Leave demographic. Look at the Remain demographic. Then match them against election turnouts.
But how many working class voters don't vote in elections because they think it will do no good.
We may, may I say, be looking at a different dynamic here which sees a higher working class turnout because they think something might change.
In any case someone should explain to Dan that Leave are ahead among older voters who have been most likely to vote in recent elections.
We might end up with a deal that requires free movement but at least that deal is not set in stone. With EU membership there is no end to that "deal". With a bilateral treaty there is the prospect of re-negotiation (albeit perhaps for a less good trade bargain). Also worth remembering that we are in a much stronger negotiating position than Switzerland or Norway, because of the much much greater size of our population and economy.
Yes and no. The EU can do any old deal with Norway and nobody will get all that fussed. They will not want to give Britain a helpful deal to avoid other major countries getting similar ideas. A deal will eventually be done, of course, but expect it to take years and have rough edges when it finally materialises.
Nick you still ignore the EFTA route. The EU has no control over who joins EFTA. I would still suggest that is the most likely outcome of a Leave result.
I can't understand why Remain can't understand that the biggest issue for over a decade now has been our inability/unwillingness, as a nation, to properly plan to house our own people.
From Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder policy of demolishing decent Victorian family homes to build poxy £150k 1 bed flats, to failure to build social housing, to BTL out of control, to propping up prices with Help to Buy.
ITS THE HOUSING MARKET, STUPID.
NuLab and the Tories have screwed lower middle/working class people over and they are very cross.
Update: My Mum has taken the temperature at the bowling club and the affluent pensioners of Lancashire are voting Leave.
Not sure Tory Leavers will do much about solving our housing crisis. High house prices are very important to the Tory base.
Speaking for the high house price tory base, not any more, not by a long long way.
The concern now is that the children will never be able to buy.
Hmmm. We'll see. The EU has not been stopping the Tories from doing anything about it for the last few years, but they haven't. Are there plans to end the current purchasing of homes in London by absentee forein buyers that were such a characteristic of Boris Johnson's time as mayor?
Yes. But only if we leave because you can't stop them whilst in the EU.
Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?
Yes because everything that is bad in the world is because of the BRUSSELS BEAUROCRATS, and everything will be different when we have our FREEDOM.
In an open letter the Leave campaigners say: "There is more than enough money to ensure that those who now get funding from the EU - including universities, scientists, family farmers, regional funds, cultural organisations and others - will continue to do so while also ensuring that we save money that can be spent on our priorities.
"If the public votes to leave on 23 June, we will continue to fund EU programmes in the UK until 2020, or up to the date when the EU is due to conclude individual programmes if that is earlier than 2020."
"AlastairMeeks said: My point is more one of demos. If we Leave, I would take quite some persuading that we should give assistance to any areas that find the Brexit bed they helped make uncomfortable."
It's like a Tory minister saying we should abolish the NHS, but only in Labour voting constituencies. So they suffer for their stupidity.
What madness is this. We are all Britons. I am literally astounded.
We're seeing a fundamental difference between Leavers and Remainers.
Leavers preference the people of their country rather than class as part of their 'family'
Remainers preference the people of their class rather than their country as part of their 'family'.
I suspect many of the AB Leavers are from working class backgrounds or live in working class areas or are employed in working class industries.
Or maybe Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
Or maybe SOME Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
I've corrected your statement.
Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.
We might end up with a deal that requires free movement but at least that deal is not set in stone. With EU membership there is no end to that "deal". With a bilateral treaty there is the prospect of re-negotiation (albeit perhaps for a less good trade bargain). Also worth remembering that we are in a much stronger negotiating position than Switzerland or Norway, because of the much much greater size of our population and economy.
Yes and no. The EU can do any old deal with Norway and nobody will get all that fussed. They will not want to give Britain a helpful deal to avoid other major countries getting similar ideas. A deal will eventually be done, of course, but expect it to take years and have rough edges when it finally materialises.
Nick you still ignore the EFTA route. The EU has no control over who joins EFTA. I would still suggest that is the most likely outcome of a Leave result.
It's not surprising that someone motivated by 'sovereignty' fails to understand the difference between power and control.
"Honest John Major's intervention will have a big effect" "Sarah Wollaston's defection will have a big effect" "The collapse in sterling will have a big effect"
proved to be as prophetic as "Barak Obama's intervention will have a big effect".
"AlastairMeeks said: My point is more one of demos. If we Leave, I would take quite some persuading that we should give assistance to any areas that find the Brexit bed they helped make uncomfortable."
It's like a Tory minister saying we should abolish the NHS, but only in Labour voting constituencies. So they suffer for their stupidity.
What madness is this. We are all Britons. I am literally astounded.
We're seeing a fundamental difference between Leavers and Remainers.
Leavers preference the people of their country rather than class as part of their 'family'
Remainers preference the people of their class rather than their country as part of their 'family'.
I suspect many of the AB Leavers are from working class backgrounds or live in working class areas or are employed in working class industries.
Or maybe Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
Or maybe SOME Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
I've corrected your statement.
Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.
And billionaire hedge fund Leavers are not overly concerned about pay rates or worker rights. I'd argue that like Stuart Rose and PB posters they are probably best not seen as representative voters.
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.
Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.
Why will stopping most of the circa 80%+ of the EU migration which are unskilled jobs, cause economic damage, since these jobs can be done by British people that are not in work?
Employment rates are at all time highs. Vacancy rates are touching all time highs. Unemployment is at ten year lows. Most of the rest not in work are mothers, students, retired or long-term sick. Where is this vast cohort of British workers being cheated out of a job?
It's not employment, so much. It's cultural and social. And it's HOUSING.
We're falling into a managerialist trap. Employment record high! Woo! Unemployment low! Woo! That's 1.6 million people out of work. 630,000 young people without a job. But fuck 'em, the headline statistics look great. Woo!
The big problem that Remainers have is that the EU actually means we can ignore our problems and leave people behind. We can forget them, and get Bogdan to make the coffee etc for minimum wage.
If Bogdan is on minimum wage making coffee, why did he get the job over John or Janet?
1. Janet and John probably feel they're better off on the dole, but the job would offer more than minimum wage if Bogdan wouldn't do it for minimum wage.
2. Bogdan is probably better educated and motivated. UK people of his qualifications get better paid jobs here.
Go on, sneer at Janet and John, that'll get their vote. (That's been Labour's policy anyway)
I'm not sneering. I'm asking a legitimate question.
Well, you have a genuine answer. Ignore the sneering comment, it's directed at Labour types, especially Tyson.
One of the issues I have with the way migration has been used is that "these people do the jobs the locals will not do". What (as Kate Hoey points out) they leave out is "at the price the employer wants to pay".
I've been quite shocked tonight at the bitterness from some Remain supporters. People like Alastair who write thread headers should do better by themselves than that.
It's rather sad and not, well, not very British actually.
I can't understand why Remain can't understand that the biggest issue for over a decade now has been our inability/unwillingness, as a nation, to properly plan to house our own people.
From Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder policy of demolishing decent Victorian family homes to build poxy £150k 1 bed flats, to failure to build social housing, to BTL out of control, to propping up prices with Help to Buy.
ITS THE HOUSING MARKET, STUPID.
NuLab and the Tories have screwed lower middle/working class people over and they are very cross.
Update: My Mum has taken the temperature at the bowling club and the affluent pensioners of Lancashire are voting Leave.
Not sure Tory Leavers will do much about solving our housing crisis. High house prices are very important to the Tory base.
Speaking for the high house price tory base, not any more, not by a long long way.
The concern now is that the children will never be able to buy.
Hmmm. We'll see. The EU has not been stopping the Tories from doing anything about it for the last few years, but they haven't. Are there plans to end the current purchasing of homes in London by absentee forein buyers that were such a characteristic of Boris Johnson's time as mayor?
Yes. But only if we leave because you can't stop them whilst in the EU.
Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?
Yes because everything that is bad in the world is because of the BRUSSELS BEAUROCRATS, and everything will be different when we have our FREEDOM.
Whether anything changes as to London property ownership in Brexit happens I don't know.
But I'm confident nothing will change if Cameron and Osborne remain in charge.
To be honest I doubt many people outside of the London economic area give a toss about London house prices in any case.
My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.
I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.
I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.
I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.
Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.
Why will stopping most of the circa 80%+ of the EU migration which are unskilled jobs, cause economic damage, since these jobs can be done by British people that are not in work?
Employment rates are at all time highs. Vacancy rates are touching all time highs. Unemployment is at ten year lows. Most of the rest not in work are mothers, students, retired or long-term sick. Where is this vast cohort of British workers being cheated out of a job?
It's not employment, so much. It's cultural and social. And it's HOUSING.
We're falling into a managerialist trap. Employment record high! Woo! Unemployment low! Woo! That's 1.6 million people out of work. 630,000 young people without a job. But fuck 'em, the headline statistics look great. Woo!
The big problem that Remainers have is that the EU actually means we can ignore our problems and leave people behind. We can forget them, and get Bogdan to make the coffee etc for minimum wage.
If Bogdan is on minimum wage making coffee, why did he get the job over John or Janet?
1. Janet and John probably feel they're better off on the dole, but the job would offer more than minimum wage if Bogdan wouldn't do it for minimum wage.
2. Bogdan is probably better educated and motivated. UK people of his qualifications get better paid jobs here.
Go on, sneer at Janet and John, that'll get their vote. (That's been Labour's policy anyway)
Janet and John aren't on the dole. Despite being less highly educated than Bogdan, their native English abilities mean that they are employed at the same company as clerical assistants on higher wages than Bogdan. When Bogdan is sent packing, John will be demoted to coffee maker (on a higher wage than Bogdan, but less than he earned previously). Janet will lose her job - a victim of the crash in demand for the company's EU exports which now attract a 10% tariff.
I can't understand why Remain can't understand that the biggest issue for over a decade now has been our inability/unwillingness, as a nation, to properly plan to house our own people.
From Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder policy of demolishing decent Victorian family homes to build poxy £150k 1 bed flats, to failure to build social housing, to BTL out of control, to propping up prices with Help to Buy.
ITS THE HOUSING MARKET, STUPID.
NuLab and the Tories have screwed lower middle/working class people over and they are very cross.
Update: My Mum has taken the temperature at the bowling club and the affluent pensioners of Lancashire are voting Leave.
Not sure Tory Leavers will do much about solving our housing crisis. High house prices are very important to the Tory base.
Speaking for the high house price tory base, not any more, not by a long long way.
The concern now is that the children will never be able to buy.
Hmmm. We'll see. The EU has not been stopping the Tories from doing anything about it for the last few years, but they haven't. Are there plans to end the current purchasing of homes in London by absentee forein buyers that were such a characteristic of Boris Johnson's time as mayor?
Yes. But only if we leave because you can't stop them whilst in the EU.
Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?
Yes because everything that is bad in the world is because of the BRUSSELS BEAUROCRATS, and everything will be different when we have our FREEDOM.
Whether anything changes as to London property ownership in Brexit happens I don't know.
But I'm confident nothing will change if Cameron and Osborne remain in charge.
To be honest I doubt many people outside of the London economic area give a toss about London house prices in any case.
I thought Leavers preferenced the people of their country.
Think like a Eurocrat for a moment. Until now you've regarded EFTA as a relic of a former era that would eventually whither away as, over a long enough timescale, the members gradually joined the EU. At which point EFTA can be disbanded and the EEA treaty becomes simply part of the acquis communautaire.
Suddenly a big, geopolitically important country comes along and says it wants to swap the EU for EFTA. That's a pretty hostile move from their perspective and you can't expect to do it without an aggressive response.
Of course they could unilaterally withdraw from the EEA treaty. The damage that would do to their economies and their reputation would be vast and would inevitably lead to more countries doing likewise. Sweden and Denmark simply wouldn't stay in an EU which did not have a Single Market agreement with Norway not least because they comprehensively share things like telecoms and energy supply. Finland and Ireland would almost certainly follow.
If you really think that the other EU countries are that dumb then why the hell do you want to be part of the EU with them?
They wouldn't be that reckless, but they would have a strategy to impose their view of the world over time.
The 'good deal' that many people think Cameron didn't get might be offered to Norway in return for a new associate membership.
Their 6% view (as it would be) compared to the other 94% view.
Their relationship with the EFTA countries is defined and controlled by the EEA Agreement. This is not other EU countries they can boss around nor do the EFTA members want further concessions from the EU. They are content with the relationship as it stands. Norway has incredibly high numbers opposing EU membership - over 70% in the last poll with less than 20% in favour.
As such the EU has two choices. They either break the treaty or they suck it up.
Since the UK joining EFTA and the EEA is the best way to continue trade I very much suspect the suck it up route will be the one taken.
Would EFTA call their bluff if they said, "Either you block UK membership or we pull the plug on the treaty. Otherwise it's join the EU or nothing?" (And they could make the EU option as attractive as they want.)
As an aside, funnily enough the current EFTA treaty explicitly has our withdrawal from it included in the text.
Yes EFTA would call their bluff. As I said, if the EU pulled the plug on the EEA then Sweden and Denmark would leave the EU.
I can't understand why Remain can't understand that the biggest issue for over a decade now has been our inability/unwillingness, as a nation, to properly plan to house our own people.
From Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder policy of demolishing decent Victorian family homes to build poxy £150k 1 bed flats, to failure to build social housing, to BTL out of control, to propping up prices with Help to Buy.
ITS THE HOUSING MARKET, STUPID.
NuLab and the Tories have screwed lower middle/working class people over and they are very cross.
Update: My Mum has taken the temperature at the bowling club and the affluent pensioners of Lancashire are voting Leave.
Not sure Tory Leavers will do much about solving our housing crisis. High house prices are very important to the Tory base.
Speaking for the high house price tory base, not any more, not by a long long way.
The concern now is that the children will never be able to buy.
Hmmm. We'll see. The EU has not been stopping the Tories from doing anything about it for the last few years, but they haven't. Are there plans to end the current purchasing of homes in London by absentee forein buyers that were such a characteristic of Boris Johnson's time as mayor?
Yes. But only if we leave because you can't stop them whilst in the EU.
Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?
Broadly yes. Down to free movement of capital. One of the rules.
We can though (which we are now doing) tax them a little more than we did before.
"AlastairMeeks said: My point is more one of demos. If we Leave, I would take quite some persuading that we should give assistance to any areas that find the Brexit bed they helped make uncomfortable."
It's like a Tory minister saying we should abolish the NHS, but only in Labour voting constituencies. So they suffer for their stupidity.
What madness is this. We are all Britons. I am literally astounded.
We're seeing a fundamental difference between Leavers and Remainers.
Leavers preference the people of their country rather than class as part of their 'family'
Remainers preference the people of their class rather than their country as part of their 'family'.
I suspect many of the AB Leavers are from working class backgrounds or live in working class areas or are employed in working class industries.
Or maybe Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
Or maybe SOME Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
I've corrected your statement.
Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.
And billionaire hedge fund Leavers are not overly concerned about pay rates or worker rights. I'd argue that like Stuart Rose and PB posters they are probably best not seen as representative voters.
Certainly I doubt many hedgies and fatcats care about pay rates and workers rights. Beyond reducing them where possible.
But Remain's problem is that its chosen to side with the hedgies and fatcats and told everyone to vote for how the hedgies and fatcats want.
I can't understand why Remain can't understand that the biggest issue for over a decade now has been our inability/unwillingness, as a nation, to properly plan to house our own people.
From Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder policy of demolishing decent Victorian family homes to build poxy £150k 1 bed flats, to failure to build social housing, to BTL out of control, to propping up prices with Help to Buy.
ITS THE HOUSING MARKET, STUPID.
NuLab and the Tories have screwed lower middle/working class people over and they are very cross.
Update: My Mum has taken the temperature at the bowling club and the affluent pensioners of Lancashire are voting Leave.
Not sure Tory Leavers will do much about solving our housing crisis. High house prices are very important to the Tory base.
Speaking for the high house price tory base, not any more, not by a long long way.
The concern now is that the children will never be able to buy.
Hmmm. We'll see. The EU has not been stopping the Tories from doing anything about it for the last few years, but they haven't. Are there plans to end the current purchasing of homes in London by absentee forein buyers that were such a characteristic of Boris Johnson's time as mayor?
Yes. But only if we leave because you can't stop them whilst in the EU.
Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?
Broadly yes. Down to free movement of capital. One of the rules.
We can though (which we are now doing) tax them a little more than we did before.
We can do all kinds of things. We have chosen not to. For a start Boris could have insisted on more social housing builds as parts of planning approvals. Or he could have refused planning. But he did neither. So now we have ghost streets and property developments where nobody actually lives, and an outward ripple effect that has increased demand and raised prices. Boris did that, not the EU.
Think like a Eurocrat for a moment. Until now you've regarded EFTA as a relic of a former era that would eventually whither away as, over a long enough timescale, the members gradually joined the EU. At which point EFTA can be disbanded and the EEA treaty becomes simply part of the acquis communautaire.
Suddenly a big, geopolitically important country comes along and says it wants to swap the EU for EFTA. That's a pretty hostile move from their perspective and you can't expect to do it without an aggressive response.
Of course they could unilaterally withdraw from the EEA treaty. The damage that would do to their economies and their reputation would be vast and would inevitably lead to more countries doing likewise. Sweden and Denmark simply wouldn't stay in an EU which did not have a Single Market agreement with Norway not least because they comprehensively share things like telecoms and energy supply. Finland and Ireland would almost certainly follow.
If you really think that the other EU countries are that dumb then why the hell do you want to be part of the EU with them?
They wouldn't be that reckless, but they would have a strategy to impose their view of the world over time.
The 'good deal' that many people think Cameron didn't get might be offered to Norway in return for a new associate membership.
Their 6% view (as it would be) compared to the other 94% view.
Their relationship with the EFTA countries is defined and controlled by the EEA Agreement. This is not other EU countries they can boss around nor do the EFTA members want further concessions from the EU. They are content with the relationship as it stands. Norway has incredibly high numbers opposing EU membership - over 70% in the last poll with less than 20% in favour.
As such the EU has two choices. They either break the treaty or they suck it up.
Since the UK joining EFTA and the EEA is the best way to continue trade I very much suspect the suck it up route will be the one taken.
Would EFTA call their bluff if they said, "Either you block UK membership or we pull the plug on the treaty. Otherwise it's join the EU or nothing?" (And they could make the EU option as attractive as they want.)
As an aside, funnily enough the current EFTA treaty explicitly has our withdrawal from it included in the text.
Yes EFTA would call their bluff. As I said, if the EU pulled the plug on the EEA then Sweden and Denmark would leave the EU.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
We might end up with a deal that requires free movement but at least that deal is not set in stone. With EU membership there is no end to that "deal". With a bilateral treaty there is the prospect of re-negotiation (albeit perhaps for a less good trade bargain). Also worth remembering that we are in a much stronger negotiating position than Switzerland or Norway, because of the much much greater size of our population and economy.
Yes and no. The EU can do any old deal with Norway and nobody will get all that fussed. They will not want to give Britain a helpful deal to avoid other major countries getting similar ideas. A deal will eventually be done, of course, but expect it to take years and have rough edges when it finally materialises.
Nick you still ignore the EFTA route. The EU has no control over who joins EFTA. I would still suggest that is the most likely outcome of a Leave result.
It's not surprising that someone motivated by 'sovereignty' fails to understand the difference between power and control.
It is surprising that someone who favours closer unions and free trade is so dismissive of the treaties that underpin those things. The EU has no power over EFTA short of revoking the treaties which will be unacceptable and terminal for some of its members. I know you really don't want to here it but that is where the power lies. If the UK leaves (and I am still not convinced they will) then the EU can ill afford to threaten actions that will drive other countries (particularly the rich net contributor ones) to follow suit.
"AlastairMeeks said: My point is more one of demos. If we Leave, I would take quite some persuading that we should give assistance to any areas that find the Brexit bed they helped make uncomfortable."
It's like a Tory minister saying we should abolish the NHS, but only in Labour voting constituencies. So they suffer for their stupidity.
What madness is this. We are all Britons. I am literally astounded.
We're seeing a fundamental difference between Leavers and Remainers.
Leavers preference the people of their country rather than class as part of their 'family'
Remainers preference the people of their class rather than their country as part of their 'family'.
I suspect many of the AB Leavers are from working class backgrounds or live in working class areas or are employed in working class industries.
Or maybe Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
Or maybe SOME Remainers feel that the people of their country would be better off if we stayed inside the EU. They may not be right, but it's possible they are motivated by exactly the same thing as Leavers.
I've corrected your statement.
Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.
And billionaire hedge fund Leavers are not overly concerned about pay rates or worker rights. I'd argue that like Stuart Rose and PB posters they are probably best not seen as representative voters.
Certainly I doubt many hedgies and fatcats care about pay rates and workers rights. Beyond reducing them where possible.
But Remain's problem is that its chosen to side with the hedgies and fatcats and told everyone to vote for how the hedgies and fatcats want.
A lot of hedgies and fat cats support Leave. They know a Boris government will look after them royally and also sense opportunities to make a killing from Brexit. I make them right on both counts.
I can't understand why Remain can't understand that the biggest issue for over a decade now has been our inability/unwillingness, as a nation, to properly plan to house our own people.
From Prescott's disastrous Pathfinder policy of demolishing decent Victorian family homes to build poxy £150k 1 bed flats, to failure to build social housing, to BTL out of control, to propping up prices with Help to Buy.
ITS THE HOUSING MARKET, STUPID.
NuLab and the Tories have screwed lower middle/working class people over and they are very cross.
Update: My Mum has taken the temperature at the bowling club and the affluent pensioners of Lancashire are voting Leave.
Not sure Tory Leavers will do much about solving our housing crisis. High house prices are very important to the Tory base.
Speaking for the high house price tory base, not any more, not by a long long way.
The concern now is that the children will never be able to buy.
Hmmm. We'll see. The EU has not been stopping the Tories from doing anything about it for the last few years, but they haven't. Are there plans to end the current purchasing of homes in London by absentee forein buyers that were such a characteristic of Boris Johnson's time as mayor?
Yes. But only if we leave because you can't stop them whilst in the EU.
Really? The EU prevents us requiring that the Chinese or Saudis who buy property in London spend a certain number of days in those properties each year?
Yes because everything that is bad in the world is because of the BRUSSELS BEAUROCRATS, and everything will be different when we have our FREEDOM.
Whether anything changes as to London property ownership in Brexit happens I don't know.
But I'm confident nothing will change if Cameron and Osborne remain in charge.
To be honest I doubt many people outside of the London economic area give a toss about London house prices in any case.
I thought Leavers preferenced the people of their country.
London is a different country as its residents so often tell us.
Anyway most Londoners are now living in Essex, Kent, Hertfordshire or further afield. Even Leamington Spa.
Still if Leave win London can keep being the self-styled 'World Capital' and be all international and unlimited immigration if it wants. As long as it contributes enough taxes.
And now its goodnight from me and goodnight from him time.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.
Equally it's possible for people who do care about immigration to be for Remain.
Quite so. Well said.
If we BREXIT we need to remember we are all Brits. And we will be fine, if we hang together rather than hang apart. We've come through far worse.
I have no intention of hanging together with those who have taken the country on a course without any planning or coherent idea of what they want against my judgement. Why should I?
On second thoughts maybe don't get campaigning!!
lol.
Meeks epitomises everything wrong with REMAIN. A kind of intellectual toddler, who will fling his poo at all the stupid people if he doesn't get special nursery rhymes.
Yes I am beginning to be of the view that Leave deserve to win regardless of the result, they are clearly putting in the effort and working hard to win, Remain are already beginning to sneer at the plebs rather than actually bother to try and convince them (apart from TSE of course). That said, I still think Remain will scrape home, by which I really do mean scrape home by barely 1%, when the undecideds enter the privacy of the polling booth and are not ready to take the risk of voting Leave
Hopefully the undecideds will just stay home.
How's the weather looking for next week Thursday?
Long range forecast for Chipping Sodbury (don't blame me, that's what the website opened with)
Thursday 6/23/16 Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 21C. Winds SW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40%.
ORB: More Remain voters know when the referendum is:
79% of Remain voters know referendum date 72% of Leave voters know referendum date
Arguably only of minimal relevance but could be a pointer that remain voters more likely to turnout.
ie Leave voters may be more fired up and may say they are more likely to vote - but if they don't even know when the referendum is, will they actually deliver on the day?
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.
I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.
I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
I'd say that contradicting a clear mandate to end free movement as soon as you've won a referendum would be 'desperate and fanciful', but that's just me.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.
I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
On top of that the man in charge of Norway's sovereign wealth fund has said it will invest in Britain if we leave.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.
I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
On top of that the man in charge of Norway's sovereign wealth fund has said it will invest in Britain if we leave.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
The elite have been trying to get Norway into the EU for decades and continually fail. There is no prospect at all that they would succeed this time, even more so given the Norwegian attitudes to being forced into things. Indeed the EU has actually managed to piss off the Norwegians (including their government) even more with their recent attempts to get control of oil and gas reserves in the EEA. It was only the fact that Norway are in the EEA rather than the EU which prevented that happening. This is realpolitik in action.
I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
I'd say that contradicting a clear mandate to end free movement as soon as you've won a referendum would be 'desperate and fanciful', but that's just me.
Ah the old tactic of changing tack when you are losing the argument.
Do I assume I should add you to the list of Remainers who think that those who voted for staying in the EU should have no further say in the future of the country just because they were defeated on one specific issue? If not then there will most likely be a clear majority of people in favour of the EFTA route. The Remainers have spent the last 3 or 4 months moaning that Leave do not have a post Brexit plan and now they moan that a suggested post Brexit plan won't be what people voted for. You can't have it both ways.
We vote to leave the EU. After that it is up to the Government, Parliament and the electorate to decide what sort of future trading relationship they want to pursue.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
Joining EFTA wouldn't give automatic EEA membership. Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere Sovereign wealth fund, yes, but Wallenberg. Sweden is akin to a local superpower, and not just looking west and south.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
Joining EFTA wouldn't give automatic EEA membership. Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere Sovereign wealth fund, yes, but Wallenberg. Sweden is akin to a local superpower, and not just looking west and south.
Not so. The UK is an independent signatory to the EEA agreement. As long as we do not breach the terms of the treaty (which means we have to either be in the EU or EFTA) then we remain a part of that treaty.
And in GDP terms Norway and Sweden are pretty evenly balanced.
IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
Joining EFTA wouldn't give automatic EEA membership. Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere Sovereign wealth fund, yes, but Wallenberg. Sweden is akin to a local superpower, and not just looking west and south.
Not so. The UK is an independent signatory to the EEA agreement. As long as we do not breach the terms of the treaty (which means we have to either be in the EU or EFTA) then we remain a part of that treaty.
Look at how the EU played the Greek crisis if you don't believe their resolve to engage in high-stakes brinkmanship. The risk of financial contagion from ejecting Greece from the Euro was far greater than the fall out would be from playing hardball over the EEA. Brexit raises the stakes but isn't a winning hand in itself.
Effectively you're saying that if forced, Norway would sooner drag Sweden and Denmark out of the EU, than block the UK from rejoining an organisation we've already left once? The Norwegian people may be against the EU but the Norwegian elite isn't, and they would simply cave in to the pressure.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
Joining EFTA wouldn't give automatic EEA membership. Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere Sovereign wealth fund, yes, but Wallenberg. Sweden is akin to a local superpower, and not just looking west and south.
Not so. The UK is an independent signatory to the EEA agreement. As long as we do not breach the terms of the treaty (which means we have to either be in the EU or EFTA) then we remain a part of that treaty.
Thanks for the heads-up. I knew that belonging to EFTA didn't bring automatic EEA membership, but didn't realise that the same applies to belonging to the EU.
And in GDP terms Norway and Sweden are pretty evenly balanced.
Sweden's is maybe 30% bigger, and maybe the same proportion smaller per capita. But Sweden has more muscle in the region. Not particularly in Norway itself, but in Finland, the Baltic states, even Russia.
IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.
Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.
Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
IS related channels have been very quick out of the blocks on this one. The so called Ramadan terror offensive by IS is properly underway. They will be disappointed if they don't get 3 or 4 good blows in against the collective 'West' .
I'm still not 100% on the Orlando killings how much anyone related to IS really had a role but this one looks legit due to the speed and certainty of the announcement.
On a plus note going to France shortly and for whatever reason I am not going to be surprised if something notable happens there or in its close neighbours in the very near future.
People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.
That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.
Equally it's possible for people who do care about immigration to be for Remain.
Quite so. Well said.
If we BREXIT we need to remember we are all Brits. And we will be fine, if we hang together rather than hang apart. We've come through far worse.
I have no intention of hanging together with those who have taken the country on a course without any planning or coherent idea of what they want against my judgement. Why should I?
On second thoughts maybe don't get campaigning!!
lol.
Meeks epitomises everything wrong with REMAIN. A kind of intellectual toddler, who will fling his poo at all the stupid people if he doesn't get special nursery rhymes.
Yes I am beginning to be of the view that Leave deserve to win regardless of the result, they are clearly putting in the effort and working hard to win, Remain are already beginning to sneer at the plebs rather than actually bother to try and convince them (apart from TSE of course). That said, I still think Remain will scrape home, by which I really do mean scrape home by barely 1%, when the undecideds enter the privacy of the polling booth and are not ready to take the risk of voting Leave
Hopefully the undecideds will just stay home.
How's the weather looking for next week Thursday?
Long range forecast for Chipping Sodbury (don't blame me, that's what the website opened with)
Thursday 6/23/16 Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 21C. Winds SW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40%.
IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.
Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
Saw something on Twitter about a breaking hostage situation in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
I wonder if ISIS have planned something really quite special and horrible for France during these Euro games
First get some hooligans to rustle up trouble
Then a nasty policewoman beheading on Facebook.
Then....
There are 5 million Muslims in France. They just need 500 radicalised and ready, and they could cause total mayhem.
Let's hope not.. blimey!
ISIS are at bay in MENA. Losing the war. Their only hope is to sow anarchy in Europe and America, and attract fighters and money again.
I do not believe there is any future for mass Muslim immigration into the West, as long as Islam has this psychosis of anti-liberal hatred,
Trump is a repugnant jackass, but he is right on this (and he could win on this alone)
How can he be right? he's not even consistent in his own statements
He's right in a fashion because he has tapped into something your average Joe thinks but the so called 'elite' that dominate political and media discourse seemed determined to evade or suppress.
Obama knocked on about gun control not the underlying cause of the hatred and motivation to kill. Whilst access to weapons is an issue the determined person can get if they want and have cash. The core issue is that the tolerance , the excuse making for those who despise our culture, our liberal democratic outlook and morality are plain bull and your average citizen doesn't buy it but gets slapped down for saying it and labelled insensitive or even racist.
Worst possible figure as Trump is, this guy is prepared to say what many are thinking, 'stop talking soft crap and act'.
this is the antithesis of a liberal democratic outlook
Not at all. Sometimes you have to fight, you have to turn the screw to defend values. Being moderate and liberal democratic doesn't mean being unwilling to take on with full effort, including absolutely unbending force where it is suitable, those who wish to bring fear and terror to a community of innocents.
I wonder if ISIS have planned something really quite special and horrible for France during these Euro games
First get some hooligans to rustle up trouble
Then a nasty policewoman beheading on Facebook.
Then....
There are 5 million Muslims in France. They just need 500 radicalised and ready, and they could cause total mayhem.
Let's hope not.. blimey!
ISIS are at bay in MENA. Losing the war. Their only hope is to sow anarchy in Europe and America, and attract fighters and money again.
I do not believe there is any future for mass Muslim immigration into the West, as long as Islam has this psychosis of anti-liberal hatred,
Trump is a repugnant jackass, but he is right on this (and he could win on this alone)
How can he be right? he's not even consistent in his own statements
He's right in a fashion because he has tapped into something your average Joe thinks but the so called 'elite' that dominate political and media discourse seemed determined to evade or suppress.
Obama knocked on about gun control not the underlying cause of the hatred and motivation to kill. Whilst access to weapons is an issue the determined person can get if they want and have cash. The core issue is that the tolerance , the excuse making for those who despise our culture, our liberal democratic outlook and morality are plain bull and your average citizen doesn't buy it but gets slapped down for saying it and labelled insensitive or even racist.
Worst possible figure as Trump is, this guy is prepared to say what many are thinking, 'stop talking soft crap and act'.
Yep, you're right.
Obama and The Guardian just cannot bring themselves to use the word 'Islam.' Or even 'Islamist.'
It's pathetic really. These people imperil western civilisation, Mr Tusk.
We might end up with a deal that requires free movement but at least that deal is not set in stone. With EU membership there is no end to that "deal". With a bilateral treaty there is the prospect of re-negotiation (albeit perhaps for a less good trade bargain). Also worth remembering that we are in a much stronger negotiating position than Switzerland or Norway, because of the much much greater size of our population and economy.
Yes and no. The EU can do any old deal with Norway and nobody will get all that fussed. They will not want to give Britain a helpful deal to avoid other major countries getting similar ideas. A deal will eventually be done, of course, but expect it to take years and have rough edges when it finally materialises.
Nick, totally agree! I am surprised at the lack of concern for one of our biggest recession recovery successes in UK if we do vote out next week, our car manufacturing industry. Especially at at time when the equally vital Oil&Gas and steel industries are taking such a huge hit and causing a real impact to the local economies in some parts of the UK. Another economic shock on the back of our exit from the EU may not see us being so lucky in areas like car manufacturing, an industry where the UK has surely been an attractive investment due to our current EU membership? How ironic if the supposed Leave Vote message of reducing immigration was to end up finally seeing unemployment in the UK rising substantially.
@Sunil.. hopefully the Sun will pick up on your Red October sketch next
A great day, comrades, we sail into history!
"We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates!"
Top Gear about to start on BBC America. With the addition of Extra Gear this is now a 2 hour slot, including commercials. This means I need to wait until 9.20 or so to start watching, to FF through the commercials, which seem to be mainly about catheters, car polishes or pillows.
This the much vaunted and allegedly much improved episode 3.
Unless this episode improves substantially I will stop watching the program. It's that bad.
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
@Sunil.. hopefully the Sun will pick up on your Red October sketch next
A great day, comrades, we sail into history!
"We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates!"
Gets me every time.. LOL
Um, you're only human
But it will be REMAINER patrols and BREXIT debates this time around!!
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
Contrary to what some people fear though, if Leave win this then it will be all about Boris, Gove and team. Farage isn't mainstream even for us Leavers. I really can't abide the man, but I'm still voting Leave.
@Sunil.. hopefully the Sun will pick up on your Red October sketch next
A great day, comrades, we sail into history!
"We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates!"
Gets me every time.. LOL
Um, you're only human
But it will be REMAINER patrols and BREXIT debates this time around!!
Will they be laying off their largest voting area?
I had this gut feeling that if people started to believe Leave could win this vote, then it would win.
Up until recent days, no matter what polls said, the feeling was that Remain would see it out but that point may have arrived where people think Leave could win.
I had this gut feeling that if people started to believe Leave could win this vote, then it would win.
Up until recent days, no matter what polls said, the feeling was that Remain would see it out but that point may have arrived where people think Leave could win.
May I suggest a name for such a phenomenon.... tipping point.
Think like a Eurocrat for a moment. Until now you've regarded EFTA as a relic of a former era that would eventually whither away as, over a long enough timescale, the members gradually joined the EU. At which point EFTA can be disbanded and the EEA treaty becomes simply part of the acquis communautaire.
Suddenly a big, geopolitically important country comes along and says it wants to swap the EU for EFTA. That's a pretty hostile move from their perspective and you can't expect to do it without an aggressive response.
Of course they could unilaterally withdraw from the EEA treaty. The damage that would do to their economies and their reputation would be vast and would inevitably lead to more countries doing likewise. Sweden and Denmark simply wouldn't stay in an EU which did not have a Single Market agreement with Norway not least because they comprehensively share things like telecoms and energy supply. Finland and Ireland would almost certainly follow.
If you really think that the other EU countries are that dumb then why the hell do you want to be part of the EU with them?
They wouldn't be that reckless, but they would have a strategy to impose their view of the world over time.
The 'good deal' that many people think Cameron didn't get might be offered to Norway in return for a new associate membership.
Their 6% view (as it would be) compared to the other 94% view.
Their relationship with the EFTA countries is defined and controlled by the EEA Agreement. This is not other EU countries they can boss around nor do the EFTA members want further concessions from the EU. They are content with the relationship as it stands. Norway has incredibly high numbers opposing EU membership - over 70% in the last poll with less than 20% in favour.
As such the EU has two choices. They either break the treaty or they suck it up.
Since the UK joining EFTA and the EEA is the best way to continue trade I very much suspect the suck it up route will be the one taken.
I remain utterly amazed at the sheer complacency of some on the Leave side when it comes to the EU renegotiating our trade agreements, travel etc in terms which are favourable to the UK on the back of leave vote in the EU Referendum. As if somehow, they will be more desperate to play ball and do business with the UK outside the EU than they were when Cameron tried to renegotiate our membership terms on the back of a possible exit.
Take car manufacturing, do you want to make it easier or more difficult for the UK when you have countries who have been really suffering in the Eurozone, especially when you could do with that the investment and business being transferred to your country under far more favourable terms as a member of the EU?
I can see why Leave have a polling bounce right now due to immigration, but I am struggling to see where they have managed to make the hard economic arguments which will protect and encourage more investment and jobs in the UK over the next decade if we leave. For me, we have thrived as a nation within the EU, but outside the Eurozone. How ironic would it be if our exit from the EU proved to be a tonic for the Eurozone.
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
I am very comfortable with the fact that I am in the opposing camp to UKIP in this EU Referendum, and in particular a Ukip party led by Nigel Farage.
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
I am very comfortable with the fact that I am in the opposing camp to UKIP in this EU Referendum, and in particular a Ukip party led by Nigel Farage.
Because Farage will be in government after the referendum.. oh wait!
IS has claimed another attack in Paris in the last 30 minutes. It appears to be a very public stabbing to death of a ranking French police officer and his wife in a Paris suburb.
Mail & sky reporting thus now, with the is connection. As far as I can see nothing on BBC website yet.
IS related channels have been very quick out of the blocks on this one. The so called Ramadan terror offensive by IS is properly underway. They will be disappointed if they don't get 3 or 4 good blows in against the collective 'West' .
I'm still not 100% on the Orlando killings how much anyone related to IS really had a role but this one looks legit due to the speed and certainty of the announcement.
On a plus note going to France shortly and for whatever reason I am not going to be surprised if something notable happens there or in its close neighbours in the very near future.
Yokel, this is looking like yet another co-ordinated IS terrorist attack in France tonight while the world watches on?
France has been, and remains one of my favourite holiday destinations. So that is extremely tragic and worrying news, and surely it must now be having an impact on its tourism trade like other countries across the Med who have also seen their tourism trade targeted by IS?
@Sunil.. hopefully the Sun will pick up on your Red October sketch next
A great day, comrades, we sail into history!
"We will leave our MPs behind, we will pass through the Conservative patrols, past their sonar nets, and lay off their largest constituency, and listen to their chortling and tittering... while we conduct Austerity Debates!"
Gets me every time.. LOL
Um, you're only human
But it will be REMAINER patrols and BREXIT debates this time around!!
Will they be laying off their largest voting area?
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
Contrary to what some people fear though, if Leave win this then it will be all about Boris, Gove and team. Farage isn't mainstream even for us Leavers. I really can't abide the man, but I'm still voting Leave.
I'm an internationalist
Yes but this refurendum would not be happening without Farage. We saw at the GE that yes he cares about his principles but he also loves to be in the limelight. If we Leave and E.U migration controls are bought in I doubt he will say "OK folks I've done my job time to move out of the media and politics" rather he will turn his attention to other "the other" to continue his career. This will gain the attention of many of the tabloid press and many people will say "he's right" and start voting for him instead of the tories etc. Then tories will play his game to garner a few votes as they always have done. There is a constituency in this country that has never been OK with migration even if it falls. no matter how settled we become no matter how socially upwardly mobile (as many asians are) they will always be uncomfortable with a changed Britain. And he or some other politicians will exploit it. They will never be happy.
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
Contrary to what some people fear though, if Leave win this then it will be all about Boris, Gove and team. Farage isn't mainstream even for us Leavers. I really can't abide the man, but I'm still voting Leave.
I'm an internationalist
Yes but this refurendum would not be happening without Farage. We saw at the GE that yes he cares about his principles but he also loves to be in the limelight. If we Leave and E.U migration controls are bought in I doubt he will say "OK folks I've done my job time to move out of the media and politics" rather he will turn his attention to other "the other" to continue his career. This will gain the attention of many of the tabloid press and many people will say "he's right" and start voting for him instead of the tories etc. Then tories will play his game to garner a few votes as they always have done. There is a constituency in this country that has never been OK with migration even if it falls. no matter how settled we become no matter how socially upwardly mobile (as many asians are) they will always be uncomfortable with a changed Britain. And he or some other politicians will exploit it. They will never be happy.
I agree with the second part but I truly do not think this will happen. I think you will find Boris moves to the centre (much as Red Mike has done). I know that sounds counterintuitive but I'm sure of it. Boris is an internationalist. Remember he was Mayor of London, now occupied by a Muslim, and he hated Zac's xenophobic campaign. If anything I think it's Cameron who has stirred up hatred.
Farage is and will stay out on a limb. UKIP's polling is plodding at 14%.
I'm very optimistic about our future. Just think of the Commonwealth: yes we did pretty bad things as colonialists. But we bucked up our ideas and opened our arms to those countries. As James Dyson said, that's where our natural allies are (literally in the case of the wars). We will have that wonderful sea-faring internationalist spring back in our step.
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
I think this country is remarkably tolerant despite what some would have you believe. Whenever I travel to other developed countries it is quite eye opening how lucky we are to live in the UK.
I'm going to be voting Leave anyway but I just wonder if Farage et al will turn his hatred to Muslims if we Leave. This worries me will I be voting for a group that would throw me to the wolves if it suited them?Hmmm Maybe I'm being silly.
I think this country is remarkably tolerant despite what some would have you believe. Whenever I travel to other developed countries it is quite eye opening how lucky we are to live in the UK.
Yes we are very lucky to live in the U.K many people tell me that we are very tolerant compared to even say New York.
Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......
Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
Remember 2015 and the broad trends reported by many companies and remain have a large lead on the economy.
As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.
In the event of a leave vote, Farage gets given some plaudits then gets put out to grass, his job done.
A knighthood or even a life peerage would seem about right. A career on the talk shows but no prospect of holding executive office. I think he'd be delighted with this.
Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......
Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
They're politicians and they're about to be booted out of No.10 and No.11 in the most ignominious fashion. It is disgusting but given their track record I'm not surprised.
I'm very optimistic about our future. Just think of the Commonwealth: yes we did pretty bad things as colonialists. But we bucked up our ideas and opened our arms to those countries. As James Dyson said, that's where our natural allies are (literally in the case of the wars). We will have that wonderful sea-faring internationalist spring back in our step.
Over here in this bit of SE Asia, we're a nobody. At the moment at least we're a nobody that's part of a big gang. But if (in the opinion of the government of this country) we are foolish enough to leave the EU, we'll be back to being a nobody again. Unless we throw money at the problem, but I don't think increasing the foreign aid budget will be on the cards.
And why would leaving the EU suddenly change our relationship with the Commonwealth? Why would any increased focus on the Commonwealth be for any reason other than desperation because no-one in the EU wants to be our friend any more? It's like divorcing our wife and going back to the woman we dumped for her and pleading with her to take us back. Turns out she's got Chinese tastes now.
Countries like Australia and India have moved on. We hold sway in the EU - or could do if we put our mind to it. The EU holds sway in the world. That's our best bet for internationalism.
this is the antithesis of a liberal democratic outlook
Nope - the best way to ensure peace is to have a large enough armed force to deter those who wish to attack you.
That only works if you're extremely wisely governed. Otherwise the fact of having a powerful military causes you to start wars unnecessarily which will sometimes turn out to be counter-productive, as we saw with Iraq.
Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......
Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.
Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
Agreed, disgusting and combines a terrible message from a 2% rated politician. Another boneheaded theme from REMAIN.
Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......
Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
Remember 2015 and the broad trends reported by many companies and remain have a large lead on the economy.
As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.
Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
Following Brexit, I forecast an emergency budget to counter the economic hit. This will include an increase in VAT and a freeze of state pensions.
It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
If EU leaders had been willing to heed the results of the Dutch and French Referenda in 2005; if they had been wiling to accept that growing numbers of Europeans do not want More Europe; had they been prepared to negotiate seriously with Cameron on the basis of his Bloomberg speech, we would not be heading for Brexit.
We are where we are because political leaders will usually prefer to ignore growing problems until they become critical.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 28m28 minutes ago Look at the Leave demographic. Look at the Remain demographic. Then match them against election turnouts.
The sound of someone whistling to keep their spirits up. 700 Leave volunteers in Newham says there has got to be a fair chance he is wrong about the ability of the Leave demographic to turn out.
Before we get ahead of ourselves ICM showed a 7 % yes lead in Indy ref with one week to go......
Yes, but this is inline with broad trends supported by many companies. 2014 was a clear outlier
Remember 2015 and the broad trends reported by many companies and remain have a large lead on the economy.
As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.
Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
Following Brexit, I forecast an emergency budget to counter the economic hit. This will include an increase in VAT and a freeze of state pensions.
Nothing is going to happen for up to 2 years - on 24th June we will still be in the EU.47
If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.
If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.
*applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.
Comments
We may, may I say, be looking at a different dynamic here which sees a higher working class turnout because they think something might change.
In any case someone should explain to Dan that Leave are ahead among older voters who have been most likely to vote in recent elections.
"If the public votes to leave on 23 June, we will continue to fund EU programmes in the UK until 2020, or up to the date when the EU is due to conclude individual programmes if that is earlier than 2020."
http://news.sky.com/story/1711514/corbyn-attempts-to-revive-labour-remain-campaign
I've corrected your statement.
Clearly Stuart Rose wasn't overly concerned about workers pay rates.
"Honest John Major's intervention will have a big effect"
"Sarah Wollaston's defection will have a big effect"
"The collapse in sterling will have a big effect"
proved to be as prophetic as "Barak Obama's intervention will have a big effect".
One of the issues I have with the way migration has been used is that "these people do the jobs the locals will not do". What (as Kate Hoey points out) they leave out is "at the price the employer wants to pay".
It's rather sad and not, well, not very British actually.
But I'm confident nothing will change if Cameron and Osborne remain in charge.
To be honest I doubt many people outside of the London economic area give a toss about London house prices in any case.
We can though (which we are now doing) tax them a little more than we did before.
But Remain's problem is that its chosen to side with the hedgies and fatcats and told everyone to vote for how the hedgies and fatcats want.
A decision to block us from EFTA could easily be positioned as respecting the democratic will of the British people.
Anyway most Londoners are now living in Essex, Kent, Hertfordshire or further afield. Even Leamington Spa.
Still if Leave win London can keep being the self-styled 'World Capital' and be all international and unlimited immigration if it wants. As long as it contributes enough taxes.
And now its goodnight from me and goodnight from him time.
Would UKIP stand as usual?
Or would it urge people to vote for Boris?
54% expect Remain win
24% expect Leave win
That is the reason why Remain is still favourite.
Thursday 6/23/16
Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 21C. Winds SW at 15 to 25 km/h. Chance of rain 40%.
pretty much the same across the country.
79% of Remain voters know referendum date
72% of Leave voters know referendum date
Arguably only of minimal relevance but could be a pointer that remain voters more likely to turnout.
ie Leave voters may be more fired up and may say they are more likely to vote - but if they don't even know when the referendum is, will they actually deliver on the day?
Believe in BRITAIN!
Be LEAVE!
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/720994959403446272
I think it should be a big one!
10% commission on each paper sold?
or is it their cheque?
Of course this Wisdom is different - it's just asking who the winner will be, not vote shares.
I am afraid that the more likely it seems Leave might actually win the more desperate and fanciful you get about the alternatives.
Do I assume I should add you to the list of Remainers who think that those who voted for staying in the EU should have no further say in the future of the country just because they were defeated on one specific issue? If not then there will most likely be a clear majority of people in favour of the EFTA route. The Remainers have spent the last 3 or 4 months moaning that Leave do not have a post Brexit plan and now they moan that a suggested post Brexit plan won't be what people voted for. You can't have it both ways.
We vote to leave the EU. After that it is up to the Government, Parliament and the electorate to decide what sort of future trading relationship they want to pursue.
Norway won't be dragging Sweden anywhere
And in GDP terms Norway and Sweden are pretty evenly balanced.
I'm still not 100% on the Orlando killings how much anyone related to IS really had a role but this one looks legit due to the speed and certainty of the announcement.
On a plus note going to France shortly and for whatever reason I am not going to be surprised if something notable happens there or in its close neighbours in the very near future.
Obama knocked on about gun control not the underlying cause of the hatred and motivation to kill. Whilst access to weapons is an issue the determined person can get if they want and have cash. The core issue is that the tolerance , the excuse making for those who despise our culture, our liberal democratic outlook and morality are plain bull and your average citizen doesn't buy it but gets slapped down for saying it and labelled insensitive or even racist.
Worst possible figure as Trump is, this guy is prepared to say what many are thinking, 'stop talking soft crap and act'.
wtf.
Obama and The Guardian just cannot bring themselves to use the word 'Islam.' Or even 'Islamist.'
It's pathetic really. These people imperil western civilisation, Mr Tusk.
There are more like 50,000 of them radicalised and ready.
No exaggeration. When oh when will Europe wake up?
Gets me every time.. LOL
This the much vaunted and allegedly much improved episode 3.
Unless this episode improves substantially I will stop watching the program. It's that bad.
But it will be REMAINER patrols and BREXIT debates this time around!!
I'm an internationalist
Doesn't quite have the same ring to it....
Up until recent days, no matter what polls said, the feeling was that Remain would see it out but that point may have arrived where people think Leave could win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum
If this were a General Election we'd note a significant and sizeable shift of opinion. That's real momentum.
... I'll get my coat.
Leave 55-60%
Remain 40-45%
Take car manufacturing, do you want to make it easier or more difficult for the UK when you have countries who have been really suffering in the Eurozone, especially when you could do with that the investment and business being transferred to your country under far more favourable terms as a member of the EU?
I can see why Leave have a polling bounce right now due to immigration, but I am struggling to see where they have managed to make the hard economic arguments which will protect and encourage more investment and jobs in the UK over the next decade if we leave. For me, we have thrived as a nation within the EU, but outside the Eurozone. How ironic would it be if our exit from the EU proved to be a tonic for the Eurozone.
France has been, and remains one of my favourite holiday destinations. So that is extremely tragic and worrying news, and surely it must now be having an impact on its tourism trade like other countries across the Med who have also seen their tourism trade targeted by IS?
Farage is and will stay out on a limb. UKIP's polling is plodding at 14%.
I'm very optimistic about our future. Just think of the Commonwealth: yes we did pretty bad things as colonialists. But we bucked up our ideas and opened our arms to those countries. As James Dyson said, that's where our natural allies are (literally in the case of the wars). We will have that wonderful sea-faring internationalist spring back in our step.
As an aside: George Osborne, the Chancellor, on Monday night said that voting to leave the EU would be a “dereliction of duty” and said that the Government may need to cut disability benefits.
Disgusting, now he threatens the disabled. Sick.
A knighthood or even a life peerage would seem about right. A career on the talk shows but no prospect of holding executive office. I think he'd be delighted with this.
And why would leaving the EU suddenly change our relationship with the Commonwealth? Why would any increased focus on the Commonwealth be for any reason other than desperation because no-one in the EU wants to be our friend any more? It's like divorcing our wife and going back to the woman we dumped for her and pleading with her to take us back. Turns out she's got Chinese tastes now.
Countries like Australia and India have moved on. We hold sway in the EU - or could do if we put our mind to it. The EU holds sway in the world. That's our best bet for internationalism.
We are where we are because political leaders will usually prefer to ignore growing problems until they become critical.
If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.
If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.
*applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.