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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ORB poll has Remain’s lead shrinking

SystemSystem Posts: 11,722
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ORB poll has Remain’s lead shrinking

The headline figures with Remain ahead by 5% is the figure ORB wishes to be judged on, whilst the Telegraph prefers to focus on the certain to vote figures. However what will really concern Remain is that Sir Lynton Crosby says Leave’s tactics ‘maybe paying off’

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    edited June 2016
    It's all going down the pan for REMAIN
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070
    1776, 1789, 2016?

    Not really but suspect some leavers really do see it that way.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    fairly good swing to leave but must not become complacent.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    edited June 2016
    IndyRef had one poll which showed Yes winning, only one, to back up the anecdotal data that seemed to indicate they were doing well, and in the end No won pretty comfortably. Leave have many many polls showing them winning, backed up by anecdotal data, and even if things swing back by the same amount Remain at best squeak a win.

    It surely will now be either very tight Remain or an easy Leave win.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    SeanT said:

    THE DAY THE POLLS TURNED, THEN DIDN'T TURN, THEN TURNED AGAIN, THEN REALLY REALLY TURNED AND BASICALLY WENT TOTALLY MAD AND WOOOOOOOO

    The polls have turned. Now 46/39 with Yougov.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    No comparisons to Sindyref please. Yes never polled this well in online/phone.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    So when do we expect the obamarama bounce to show up in the polls?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    SeanT said:

    I think the key poll is YouGov, not ORB

    Ipsos Mori for me.
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    BeLeave in Britain is a fantastic slogan. Well done Sunil.
  • Options
    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FrankBooth said:

    1776, 1789, 2016?

    Not really but suspect some leavers really do see it that way.

    Revolutions do tend to consume their own.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    David Cameron is having a bad day.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    I think the key poll is YouGov, not ORB

    Ipsos Mori for me.
    Clearly Ipsos is going to produce a 10 point Remain lead just to mess with our heads.
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Plenty of time yet but the momentum is with us. Please keep it going team Leave.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    glw said:

    David Cameron is having a bad day.

    I hate to think how many fags have utilised today...
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070
    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    I think the key poll is YouGov, not ORB

    Ipsos Mori for me.
    When can we expect MORI?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So when do we expect the obamarama bounce to show up in the polls?

    When Monty Hall offers us a stick or switch between ICM and Ipsos Mori?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The expert offerings of Eddie Izzard have swung it.

  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    Talking of which, Scott seems to have become rather quiet...
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    glw said:

    David Cameron is having a bad day.

    He will be a political leper if he turns out to have saved the Union, then destroyed it again via Brexit and Scexit
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I said a few hours ago a 70% chance for Leave. And I was being cautious...
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    I can't keep up with all this. At the end of the last thread we had a poll which suggested leave was ahead by 7 points. Now just a few minutes later we have young Darth Eagles going on about one showing remain ahead by five points.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Mortimer said:

    Talking of which, Scott seems to have become rather quiet...

    He has gone for reprogramming after malfunctioning so badly over the monty Hall problem...
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    YG is 54-46.

    Remain on 40-45% still available at 10/1
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    Just updated to include the YouGov poll.

    Please no more polls tonight, I'm knackered and want to go to bed.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    @RichardNabavi

    U OK hun?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Being a Leave supporter and a Spurs supporter. I am dreading the thought of Leave choking in the last few yards. Great work so far, but so long to go.
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    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Cameron will be hated by half the country for allowing this referendum to take place and be won by the other side.
    The other half will hate him for his conduct during the campaign
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    The Remain campaign are in very serious trouble.
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    initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    kle4 said:

    IndyRef had one poll which showed Yes winning, only one, to back up the anecdotal data that seemed to indicate they were doing well, and in the end No won pretty comfortably. Leave have many many polls showing them winning, backed up by anecdotal data, and even if things swing back by the same amount Remain at best squeak a win.

    It surely will now be either very tight Remain or an easy Leave win.

    But not a very tight Leave win?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    I think the key poll is YouGov, not ORB

    Ipsos Mori for me.
    When can we expect MORI?
    Probably Wednesday lunchtime
  • Options
    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU.

    Exactly.

    Exactly why it's a no-brainer that we should Leave.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    I presume that some sort of Mother Of All Vows is being feverishly worked on right now.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    SeanT said:

    Mortimer said:

    Talking of which, Scott seems to have become rather quiet...

    And Nabavi
    The pair of them are in Marseille fighting the Russians
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mortimer said:

    Talking of which, Scott seems to have become rather quiet...

    He has gone for reprogramming after malfunctioning so badly over the monty Hall problem...
    No 3rd door. just a trapdoor.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Being a Leave supporter and a Spurs supporter. I am dreading the thought of Leave choking in the last few yards. Great work so far, but so long to go.

    Hold firm. We must all see this through.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Ed Milliband is PM
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    initforthemoney said:

    kle4 said:

    IndyRef had one poll which showed Yes winning, only one, to back up the anecdotal data that seemed to indicate they were doing well, and in the end No won pretty comfortably. Leave have many many polls showing them winning, backed up by anecdotal data, and even if things swing back by the same amount Remain at best squeak a win.

    It surely will now be either very tight Remain or an easy Leave win.

    But not a very tight Leave win?
    If momentum reverses I feel like it'll be significant enough to see Remain over the line, but if it doesn't reverse than Leave are going to walk it, so I don't think so, but then I base that on nothing but gut.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Casino_Royale said:

    The Remain campaign are in very serious trouble.

    Is it possible we will get Reverse Wollastons ?

    No one wants to be associated with a campaign that has the smell of death about it, especially if they only joined for career purposes.

    And so far Remain have run the most monumentally stupid campaign since Andy Burnham's leadership bid.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742462098563825668
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,380
    Is this real?

    https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/742464072457846784
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    Freggles said:

    Cameron will be hated by half the country for allowing this referendum to take place and be won by the other side.
    The other half will hate him for his conduct during the campaign

    Actually, although I'm v.disappointed in his campaign, I will always be grateful to Cameron for giving us this referendum.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    chestnut said:

    The expert offerings of Eddie Izzard have swung it.

    What could go wrong when your case is being presented by a man wearing a pink beret, lip-stick, eye-liner, and nail varnish?
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742462098563825668

    Sunil's finest work yet.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    Jonathan said:

    Ed Milliband is PM

    Wise words. Quite a few may bottle it now.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070
    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

    Which will take years and there will be several options on the table. 'Splendid isolation' is not a serious option. The question is what will our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world be? All manner of things will be up in the air.

    I admit that part of me is slightly fascinated by, for instance, what happens to the pound in the morning.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,689
    I've updated the thread header with The Sun front page
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    SeanT said:

    I think the key poll is YouGov, not ORB

    Yougov were one of the only pollsters to have a poll showing Yes ahead and had the general election tied but even on Yougov where the 11% of Don't Knows go will be key
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    CNN Intl have just described Gordon Brown as an example of 'influential Britons'
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Fenster said:

    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.

    People forget how the speech ends...

    'This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
    Dear for her reputation through the world,
    Is now leased out, I die pronouncing it,
    Like to a tenement or pelting farm:
    England, bound in with the triumphant sea
    Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
    Of watery Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
    With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds:
    That England, that was wont to conquer others,
    Hath made a shameful conquest of itself.
    Ah, would the scandal vanish with my life,
    How happy then were my ensuing death!'

    No need to die, Old John...

    Just VOTE to unwind this crap on the 23rd!
  • Options
    EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    Jonathan said:

    Ed Milliband is PM

    #boom
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Mortimer said:

    Talking of which, Scott seems to have become rather quiet...

    He has gone for reprogramming after malfunctioning so badly over the monty Hall problem...
    Pasty_Scott has run out of twitter feeds to re-paste, that are positive for REMAIN so he has nothing to say.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    I see its all kicked off this evening. I can't see much of a way back for Remain now, without a very serious event. Uncle Gordon and his intervention isn't going to butter any parsnips.

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Being a Leave supporter and a Spurs supporter. I am dreading the thought of Leave choking in the last few yards. Great work so far, but so long to go.

    Well, I'm a Spurs supporter, a Remain supporter and a former Labour voter. I am acustomed to disappointment and expect to be pretty miserable on 24th June. The good news is that I can at least make some money from it all.

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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    I know we're all giddy about the polls (or perhaps despairing, if you're of that persuasion), but I thought some of you would be interested in some follow up I did on this morning's topic:

    http://www.citylab.com/tech/2016/01/the-rise-of-global-startup-cities/426780/

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    @Sunil has taken over The Sun!!!!! :open_mouth:

    What hell is going to happen next

    #CrazyDays
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    Talking of which, Scott seems to have become rather quiet...

    I was watching the footie
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

    The post Brexit Remainer drive will be for a EEA style deal as close as possible to EU membership in all but name.
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    EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    CNN Intl have just described Gordon Brown as an example of 'influential Britons'

    He saved the world and the Union.
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    reverend_catreverend_cat Posts: 71
    The betting markets for this are truly bizzare.

    Polls all come out in favour for Leave. Betting markets move very slightly.

    Whereas polls for Remain moved the market much more. Just bizarre
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    GIN1138 said:

    @Sunil has taken over The Sun!!!!! :open_mouth:

    What hell is going to happen next

    #CrazyDays

    Find out in the Sunil on Sunday!!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252
    They'll need to cremate the ashes of European Britain and keep them in an urn in Brussels. We could play a game of Diplomacy every 4 years for them.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    ITV News full of positive stories favouring REMAIN, Brown the LEAVE.EU own goal etc etc. Now waiting for mention of Migration Watch forecasts.... It did not happen. So ITV News balanced coverage was friendly minutes on REMAIN followed by minutes on the LEAVE.EU twits...being condemned by VoteLeave and Farage.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252
    It woz the Sunil wot won it?
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited June 2016
    Freggles said:

    Cameron will be hated by half the country for allowing this referendum to take place and be won by the other side.
    The other half will hate him for his conduct during the campaign

    Hopefully the Conservative Party will learn the lesson and not elect another untried PR spiv as its next leader. Whichever way the referendum goes I hope the party takes the message that the electorate have had enough of unprincipled snake-oil salesmen.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Cameron won't be the only EU leader who is getting the jitters.
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    NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Fenster said:

    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.

    You say that but there are many factors at play. Many communities especially in the south east are currently finding huge housing developments are being proposed over what are mainly green fields in areas that have already suffered from over development in the last few years. The knock on effect from increased traffic, pressure on services and a general sense of overcrowding is reducing the quality of life of the many adversely affected. Inevitably immigration and consequently the EU is blamed.
  • Options
    EICIPMEICIPM Posts: 55
    bigjohnowls said:

    GIN1138 said:

    @Sunil has taken over The Sun!!!!! :open_mouth:

    What hell is going to happen next

    #CrazyDays

    Find out in the Sunil on Sunday!!
    SIAIEOTS

    Sunil Is Awesome Is Editor Of The Sun
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    DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 712
    Betfair has Leave to be over 47.5% at 10/11 - worth a punt surely....?!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252
    HurstLlama said:

    Freggles said:

    Cameron will be hated by half the country for allowing this referendum to take place and be won by the other side.
    The other half will hate him for his conduct during the campaign

    Hopefully the Conservative Party will learn the lesson and not elect another untried PR spiv at its next leader. Whichever way the referendum goes I hope the party takes the message that the electorate have had enough of unprincipled snake-oil salesmen.
    If you're a Brexiter he's been the perfect useful idiot. He delivered the majority that looked impossible and then hubris compelled him to push ahead with a referendum at the worst possible moment.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    CNN Intl have just described Gordon Brown as an example of 'influential Britons'

    Well he's certainly influenced me to vote Leave.

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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    edited June 2016
    Anybody worked out what YouGov would be excluding undecided's?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    FrankBooth said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

    Which will take years and there will be several options on the table. 'Splendid isolation' is not a serious option. The question is what will our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world be? All manner of things will be up in the air.

    I admit that part of me is slightly fascinated by, for instance, what happens to the pound in the morning.
    Why the morning?

    Forex is a global market...
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    EICIPM said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    CNN Intl have just described Gordon Brown as an example of 'influential Britons'

    He saved the world and the Union.
    I was just going to post that. Also helped save the pound with his "five tests" to euro membership (the five were practically impossible to all being met if I recall). Shame about selling off the gold at rock bottom prices. Still, worthy...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0LcABKIl3Q

    And thanks to his hopeless intervention in this referendum, he'll help save Britain from ignominious union with ze Continent.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    chestnut said:

    Cameron won't be the only EU leader who is getting the jitters.

    The wires must be glowing between Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and London. (Well maybe not Paris, as much).

    Warsaw must be getting squeaky bum too.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Interesting how firmly the Sun has nailed it's colours to the mast. It's only waiting until it was sure it would win of course..
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    FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 3,921
    YBarddCwsc said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    The Remain campaign are in very serious trouble.

    Is it possible we will get Reverse Wollastons ?

    No one wants to be associated with a campaign that has the smell of death about it, especially if they only joined for career purposes.

    And so far Remain have run the most monumentally stupid campaign since Andy Burnham's leadership bid.
    More likely to be more Wollastons looking to the medium term. When the Brexit recession is in full swing and unemployment is going through the roof, they'll be the ones saying, "Don't blame me, I voted Remain!" At least immigration shouldn't be a problem - who's going to want to come here (apart from British pensioners forced back from Spain by a plummeting pension and visa problems)? Quite the contrary: the words "brain drain" may soon enter our vocabulary again.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    The Sun page is interesting. They like to be on the winning side, and usually they are

    HOWEVER the Scottish Sun came out for YES

    No it didn't. It sat on the fence.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GIN1138 said:

    @Sunil has taken over The Sun!!!!! :open_mouth:

    What hell is going to happen next

    #CrazyDays

    he already was part of the group that got vote leave the official designation. very powerful our Sunil.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HurstLlama said:

    I hope the party takes the message that the electorate have had enough of unprincipled snake-oil salesmen.

    Yeah, we want Boris instead!

    Oh, wait...
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    FrankBooth said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

    Which will take years and there will be several options on the table. 'Splendid isolation' is not a serious option. The question is what will our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world be? All manner of things will be up in the air.

    I admit that part of me is slightly fascinated by, for instance, what happens to the pound in the morning.
    At the moment nothing is happening to the pound.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    FrankBooth said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

    Which will take years and there will be several options on the table. 'Splendid isolation' is not a serious option. The question is what will our relationship with the EU and the rest of the world be? All manner of things will be up in the air.

    I admit that part of me is slightly fascinated by, for instance, what happens to the pound in the morning.

    Yep, for those of us who are not going to be seriously affected by the vote the real fun begins on 24th June. Will Tory MPs conspire against Boris (probably not), will Jezza get away Scot free (probably), when will Farage cry betrayal (December), how many Tories will join him (a few and then some more), will any Brexit deal get through the Commons (hmmm), will there be economic and investor kickback (almost certainly), will there by a GE before 2020 (yes), and so on. This place will be busy for years yet on EU withdrawal. It'll take more than two years.

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.

    And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.

    And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    reverend_cat said:

    The betting markets for this are truly bizzare.

    Polls all come out in favour for Leave. Betting markets move very slightly.

    Whereas polls for Remain moved the market much more. Just bizarre

    The betting markets here are dominated by mental inertia, and received opinion, not logic

    There is an unwillingness to recognise that the unthinkable is about to be thunk.

    No one can believe a Black Swan even when a Black Swan comes through the door. It's only when the Black Swan breaks your arm that you go Ah, yes
    Only 2 are now offering 7/4 though via oddschecker.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Betfair has Leave to be over 47.5% at 10/11 - worth a punt surely....?!

    Yes, I agree.

    I backed at 6/4 several days ago and have no intention of laying off at the current odds.

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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    Norm said:

    Fenster said:

    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.

    You say that but there are many factors at play. Many communities especially in the south east are currently finding huge housing developments are being proposed over what are mainly green fields in areas that have already suffered from over development in the last few years. The knock on effect from increased traffic, pressure on services and a general sense of overcrowding is reducing the quality of life of the many adversely affected. Inevitably immigration and consequently the EU is blamed.
    If you ignore the tiddlers (.e.g San Marino, Malta), England is the most densely populated country in Europe. That overall figure flatters to deceive, as the population distribution is skewed to the SE.

    There's capacity for more of course, I'd not argue otherwise. But we desperately need planning reform and more 'joined up thinking' /cliche.
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    Now the Sun backs Leave I suppose Remain might at least win working class Liverpudlians!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    Thank god for that!
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Betfair has Leave to be over 47.5% at 10/11 - worth a punt surely....?!

    Not as good as 7-1 to win on a turnout of less than 65% :-)

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252
    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    Probably something like that famous Sion Simon piece.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    CNN Intl have just described Gordon Brown as an example of 'influential Britons'

    Soon to join the list of "third-rate traitors who conspired to sell their country (or even their neighbouring country) down the river."
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,913
    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    Scrambled Eggs and Bacon.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    glw said:

    David Cameron is having a bad day.

    I hate to think how many fags have utilised today...
    the meth is shaking she knows she's next.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    FrankBooth said:

    The only result that would have settled things in the medium term was a solid remain win. Until today I thought that was still a decent prospect. It now looks distinctly unlikely.

    Any Leave result settles it. No-one will be campaigning to rejoin the EU. The only arguments will be around the terms of the Brexit deal.

    The post Brexit Remainer drive will be for a EEA style deal as close as possible to EU membership in all but name.
    I seriously fear for the health of the Brexiters who will try and pull that off. They've unleashed the genie out of the bottle and they won't be able to put it back. The only way it could work is if leaving leads to a wake up call inside the EU. However Wolfgang Munchau in a Brexit sympathetic column thought that the instinct of many inside the EU would be to punish Britain to make sure no-one else tries the same thing. If that really is the prevailing view I just despair.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    Relief, then concern no-one finds the hidden postal votes.

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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    The Sun always backs the winner. This is over.

    "ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4)"

    What are those figures being compared with? The preceding two ORB polls I've got are

    - online, conducted 8-9 June, 55-45 Leave
    - phone, 2-5 June, 48-47 Remain
This discussion has been closed.