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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ORB poll has Remain’s lead shrinking

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    The Remain campaign are in very serious trouble.

    Is it possible we will get Reverse Wollastons ?

    No one wants to be associated with a campaign that has the smell of death about it, especially if they only joined for career purposes.

    And so far Remain have run the most monumentally stupid campaign since Andy Burnham's leadership bid.
    More likely to be more Wollastons looking to the medium term. When the Brexit recession is in full swing and unemployment is going through the roof, they'll be the ones saying, "Don't blame me, I voted Remain!" At least immigration shouldn't be a problem - who's going to want to come here (apart from British pensioners forced back from Spain by a plummeting pension and visa problems)? Quite the contrary: the words "brain drain" may soon enter our vocabulary again.
    There'll be a depression, not a recession on either result once the global sovereign debt crisis.....and it won't be due to the Brexit (in the event of that), but that will be a fury and thunder debate for 18 months time on here. I suspect the ground will have moved on very considerably though come the end of 2017 though.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,455
    John_N4 said:

    The Sun always backs the winner. This is over.

    "ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4)"

    What are those figures being compared with? The preceding two ORB polls I've got are

    - online, conducted 8-9 June, 55-45 Leave
    - phone, 2-5 June, 48-47 Remain

    This is all voters, the Sun always tended to back parties which middle class voters voted for, the Tories under Thatcher, New Labour, the Tories under Cameron, even the SNP, this is the first time it is going against middle class voters because its readership is primarily working class and backs Leave, where the undecided middle class goes is pivotal
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,039



    The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    That's fighting talk.... :open_mouth:
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    Crosby "Unlike last week, however, Leave’s gains have now also translated to the trend among the electorate as a whole, suggesting that last week’s figures were a reflection of a broad change among public attitude and not just a fleeting bump in the poll numbers."
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/sir-lynton-crosby-leave-has-a-narrow-lead-in-a-sign-its-tactics/
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,455
    hunchman said:

    I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.

    And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.

    And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.

    There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchester
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible. For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Calm down Mr Meeks.
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    DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Is that what Remain has been campaigning for? Has anyone told the Project Fear team?
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    John_N4 said:

    The Sun always backs the winner. This is over.

    "ORB Phone poll All Voters Remain 49 (-3) Leave 44 (+4)"

    What are those figures being compared with? The preceding two ORB polls I've got are

    - online, conducted 8-9 June, 55-45 Leave
    - phone, 2-5 June, 48-47 Remain

    Phone
    By which pollster? The figures in brackets are wrong if it's ORB and I've got their preceding phone poll right.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,043
    EICIPM said:

    GIN1138 said:

    @Sunil has taken over The Sun!!!!! :open_mouth:

    What hell is going to happen next

    #CrazyDays

    Find out in the Sunil on Sunday!!
    SIAIEOTS

    Sunil Is Awesome Is Editor Of The Sun
    EICIPM

    Europe Is Crap Its Practically Merde!!!
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,039
    Do you think Cameron and Osborne have been shocked to their core tonight? ;)
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    RodCrosby said:

    Fenster said:

    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.

    People forget how the speech ends...

    'This land of such dear souls, this dear dear land,
    Dear for her reputation through the world,
    Is now leased out, I die pronouncing it,
    Like to a tenement or pelting farm:
    England, bound in with the triumphant sea
    Whose rocky shore beats back the envious siege
    Of watery Neptune, is now bound in with shame,
    With inky blots and rotten parchment bonds:
    That England, that was wont to conquer others,
    Hath made a shameful conquest of itself.
    Ah, would the scandal vanish with my life,
    How happy then were my ensuing death!'


    No need to die, Old John...

    Just VOTE to unwind this crap on the 23rd!
    Awesome ☺
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Interesting new betfair market

    Referendum/Cameron doubles;

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.125203533
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,766
    Mr Meeks having his Jim Davidson moment.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Hyperbole much?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,943
    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    Norm said:

    Fenster said:

    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.

    You say that but there are many factors at play. Many communities especially in the south east are currently finding huge housing developments are being proposed over what are mainly green fields in areas that have already suffered from over development in the last few years. The knock on effect from increased traffic, pressure on services and a general sense of overcrowding is reducing the quality of life of the many adversely affected. Inevitably immigration and consequently the EU is blamed.
    And they are right. We simply cannot sustain perpetual immigration of 300,000-500,000 a year, into a country - England (and it is mainly England) - which is already the most crowded in Europe.

    In a sense what we are seeing is just a natural and inevitable reaction to these enormous flows. If the EU won't let us close the doors, we must do it for ourselves. The people are right.
    Most people won't take the long view on what immigration can do to a country (never mind what emigration is doing to the source country).

    When you're trying to deal with demographic trends by importing your workforce, you're running a Ponzi scheme. You've punted the can down the road.

    I think the biggest challenge is going to be managing peak Global Population (that may not happen in my lifetime ofc).

    Of course, something like the widespread deployment of robots and intelligent software agents might just gut the employment market and render this discussion moot.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,455
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    hunchman said:

    I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.

    And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.

    And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.

    There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchester
    Nope. Several banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls. Unless it is incredibly tight, the result will be clear within minutes - on the global Forex and stock markets.
    They are not proper exit polls, only the main networks have the capacity to do those and scientifically weight them, the City's polls will be as useful as the final opinion polls
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,766

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    John harris videos always worth a watch.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Sorry Mr Meeks but your remarks are insulting to leavers like me. I'm no little Englander thank you, I've travelled widely around the world and am proud to regard myself as an Internationalist and very pro-European. I want a Europe that is open to the world, not one hiding behind the common EU external tariff, not engaging with the wider world. Whether you like it or not, the long term cycles are definitive that Asia will rise to become the dominant economic power by around 2030 in the world. We simply have to adjust to that new reality, and if for one moment I felt that the leave campaign represented isolation and introversion then I'd be a very reluctant remainer. I want to freely trade with everyone, freely be able to attract the best talent irrespective of gender, race, creed, colour etc whilst controlling our own destiny.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,504
    SeanT said:

    In a sense what we are seeing is just a natural and inevitable reaction to these enormous flows. If the EU won't let us close the doors, we must do it for ourselves. The people are right.

    Yet another legacy of Blair's poisonously bad decisions. If we didn't allow free access when the A10 joined and the government didn't have a policy of 'rubbing the right's face in diversity', the cumulative numbers coming here would have been much lower.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,455
    edited June 2016

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougov
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,516
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    Alistair said:

    SeanT said:

    The Sun page is interesting. They like to be on the winning side, and usually they are

    HOWEVER the Scottish Sun came out for YES

    No it didn't. It sat on the fence.
    Really?

    Fair dos. But when, in that case, was that front page when they came out for the Nats, and said Rise up and be a Nation?
    That was 1992.
    In a subsequent front page in 2007 it placed a map of Scotland within an SNP logo shaped noose, so it could never be accused of long term consistency.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    GIN1138 said:

    Do you think Cameron and Osborne have been shocked to their core tonight? ;)

    I want pictures or failing that first hand reports of their colossal meltdown.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943
    Whoever wins half the population are going to be mightily passed off. Much more so than a Ge.

    A nasty legacy of a nasty campaign.

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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone

    Running around like a teapot no doubt. Hope he continues doing it.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Great news on these polls but we still have 9 full days to go,expect more pro remain help from the Tv news/radio channels,more scare stories and maybe for cameron/remain to throw a bone to the leave voters.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    SeanT said:

    There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone

    Just saw the same. Wow.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Vapid Bilge.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    HYUFD said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougov
    PLEASE Mr Meeks, get campaigning. Remain need a charming man such as yourself manning a street stall or going door to door canvassing support.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    I'm sad that you think in this way. From the idea that leaving the EU means "isolation and introversion" (does a nation state have to be a member of the EU to engage with the world? especially when it's the fifth largest economically??) but also that you will make such a harsh judgement of your fellow countrymen if they vote in an act of self-determination to change their nation's relationship with others. You make it sound like we're about to commit genocide or something. It's really sad.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    SeanT said:

    There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone

    These fucks will be squealing like stuck pigs in November...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,766
    SeanT said:

    There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone

    Who is the twat?
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    RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Is this meant to matter to someone other than you?
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.
    ☺☺☺I laughed out loud at that LOL LOL LOL
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,039
    edited June 2016
    MP_SE said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Do you think Cameron and Osborne have been shocked to their core tonight? ;)

    I want pictures or failing that first hand reports of their colossal meltdown.
    I'm sure peole are getting to work on the Downfall parody's as we speak...

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,943
    HYUFD said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougov
    hear, hear.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038
    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.
    I'm not leaving. Time, however, to think about how I can help change the country for the better. The world isn't going to get less complicated, less mobile or less interconnected, whatever the little Englanders think.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,577

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    It cannot possibly be so bad.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,504
    SeanT said:

    There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone

    Was he American?
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    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    "That TSE chap deserves a Knighthood"
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027
    Close to £2.5 million has been matched on Betfair in the last 24 hours.

    Real money is being staked.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,943
    MP_SE said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Do you think Cameron and Osborne have been shocked to their core tonight? ;)

    I want pictures or failing that first hand reports of their colossal meltdown.
    Probably not Osborne, who, according to STimes, thought it was "crazy" to offer a referendum that might well be lost.
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    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    LEAVE now a 37% chance on Betfair
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    Norm said:

    Fenster said:

    This sceptred isle. This blessed plot; this realm; this earth; this, erm, extraordinary up yours from the working classes to the cynical, complacent establishment!

    Team Hearts Over Minds.

    You say that but there are many factors at play. Many communities especially in the south east are currently finding huge housing developments are being proposed over what are mainly green fields in areas that have already suffered from over development in the last few years. The knock on effect from increased traffic, pressure on services and a general sense of overcrowding is reducing the quality of life of the many adversely affected. Inevitably immigration and consequently the EU is blamed.
    And they are right. We simply cannot sustain perpetual immigration of 300,000-500,000 a year, into a country - England (and it is mainly England) - which is already the most crowded in Europe.

    In a sense what we are seeing is just a natural and inevitable reaction to these enormous flows. If the EU won't let us close the doors, we must do it for ourselves. The people are right.
    Most people won't take the long view on what immigration can do to a country (never mind what emigration is doing to the source country).

    When you're trying to deal with demographic trends by importing your workforce, you're running a Ponzi scheme. You've punted the can down the road.

    I think the biggest challenge is going to be managing peak Global Population (that may not happen in my lifetime ofc).

    Of course, something like the widespread deployment of robots and intelligent software agents might just gut the employment market and render this discussion moot.
    Peak global population happens in 2100. Already it is stabalising and the growth comes from longer life expectancy particularly in poorer countries.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,039
    edited June 2016
    RoyalBlue said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Is this meant to matter to someone other than you?
    I'm sad that Alistair Meeks is upset...

    I'm sad that David Cameron (whom I've always liked a lot) could be toast next week.

    And I'm sad that we might be about to LEAVE the EU because it didn't have to be this way. The renegotiation was a great opportunity for both sides to reset our relationship and move forward with a new settlement allowing Cameron and REMAIN to make a positive case for staying in the EU with semi-detached status.

    Cameron and the EU blew it and left us with little choice than to vote LEAVE
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027

    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    "That TSE chap deserves a Knighthood"
    I don't want anything less than a Royal Dukedom.

    Though I'll accept a GCMG.
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Freggles said:

    Cameron will be hated by half the country for allowing this referendum to take place and be won by the other side.
    The other half will hate him for his conduct during the campaign

    Hopefully the Conservative Party will learn the lesson and not elect another untried PR spiv at its next leader. Whichever way the referendum goes I hope the party takes the message that the electorate have had enough of unprincipled snake-oil salesmen.
    If you're a Brexiter he's been the perfect useful idiot. He delivered the majority that looked impossible and then hubris compelled him to push ahead with a referendum at the worst possible moment.
    Mr Glenn, If Cameron was not such, well I shant say what I think of him. He might actually have done a deal worth the name and one that he could have sold to the British people. He could then have gone off and been remembered as a great PM.

    @Scott_P
    I said I hope that the Conservative Party would not choose another untried snake-oil salesman as their next leader.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited June 2016

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500 13 months ago. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.
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    MP_SE said:

    HYUFD said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougov
    PLEASE Mr Meeks, get campaigning. Remain need a charming man such as yourself manning a street stall or going door to door canvassing support.
    Probably it would help the LEAVE campaign.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
    LEAVE now a 37% chance on Betfair

    Double it, for the real chance...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,943

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    John harris videos always worth a watch.
    Yes, he has certainly been one of the first to try and awaken Labour elite to the meltdown that is happening to its traditional core vote 'out in the sticks'.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,943

    SeanT said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.
    I'm not leaving. Time, however, to think about how I can help change the country for the better. The world isn't going to get less complicated, less mobile or less interconnected, whatever the little Englanders think.
    Cheer up.

    You're a lawyer. Brexit will make you and your ilk richer than Trump. You can then get funny hair and buy your way to power in whatever is left.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    RodCrosby said:

    SeanT said:

    There's a man on Newsnight saying Trump is as responsible for the killing in Orlando as the killer who killed everyone

    These fucks will be squealing like stuck pigs in November...
    Charming

  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,098
    I'm struggling to understand how 60% of Labour voters are for remain given all we're hearing from Islington. You'd think it was about 90-10 out.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.
    Yes but the Labour party gave them Tristram Hunt as a representative of the people......... Allegedly fixed up by Mandelson.
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    Jonathan said:

    Whoever wins half the population are going to be mightily passed off. Much more so than a Ge.

    A nasty legacy of a nasty campaign.

    I dont think that's necessarily true. Whatever happens will seem, afterwards, like it it was always inevitable. If leave win, within six months we'll be saying "do you remember when WE used to want be in the EU ? "
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,577
    tyson said:


    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,027
    Mike and I actually predicted this about a month ago in a phone call.

    Mike: I'm headed to Spain on Bank Holiday Monday, and back June 20th, so back just in time for the referendum.

    Me: So I reckon we'll see a few large Leave leads in your absence, a run on Sterling, The FTSE 100 tanking

    Mike: How do you think Mr Cameron will feel if I stay out in Spain till the 24th of June?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,943
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    hunchman said:

    I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.

    And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.

    And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.

    There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchester
    Nope. Several banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls. Unless it is incredibly tight, the result will be clear within minutes - on the global Forex and stock markets.
    Hmm. The major pollsters have said no to doing an exit poll for broadcasters as there is no prior data line.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    #PrayforRemain
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,504
    kle4 said:

    tyson said:


    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.
    Equally it's possible for people who do care about immigration to be for Remain.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Jonathan said:

    SeanT said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Off you go then. See if you prefer Viktor Orban's Hungary, where you contentedly have your second home, you pompous twit.
    I'm not leaving. Time, however, to think about how I can help change the country for the better. The world isn't going to get less complicated, less mobile or less interconnected, whatever the little Englanders think.
    Cheer up.

    You're a lawyer. Brexit will make you and your ilk richer than Trump. You can then get funny hair and buy your way to power in whatever is left.
    Oh I personally will be materially just fine. Laws changing is always great for lawyers.

    Though I'm past even the wig-wearing stage now.
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052

    Great news on these polls but we still have 9 full days to go,expect more pro remain help from the Tv news/radio channels,more scare stories and maybe for cameron/remain to throw a bone to the leave voters.


    Or maybe, reasonable people saying that we don't want to lurch the UK into the hands of racism, populism, nastiness....that is what we are playing for.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,455
    MP_SE said:

    HYUFD said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougov
    PLEASE Mr Meeks, get campaigning. Remain need a charming man such as yourself manning a street stall or going door to door canvassing support.
    If he focuses on getting out the metropolitan AB vote I am sure he can be of some use
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    hunchman said:

    I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.

    And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.

    And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.

    There will be no exit poll other than a post vote yougov poll, the result could not be clear until the final result in Manchester
    Nope. Several banks and hedge funds have commissioned exit polls. Unless it is incredibly tight, the result will be clear within minutes - on the global Forex and stock markets.
    They are not proper exit polls, only the main networks have the capacity to do those and scientifically weight them, the City's polls will be as useful as the final opinion polls
    Indeed, there are no bellwether polling stations in a referendum.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,766
    edited June 2016
    A few years ago stoke voted a load of BNP councillors...certainly playing on fear of immigration but more a big f##k you to political establishment that they didn't feel represented by...wouldn't surprise if get a big leave vote for a similar reason.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.
    Yes but the Labour party gave them Tristram Hunt as a representative of the people......... Allegedly fixed up by Mandelson.
    Stoke Central was already trending away from Labour before Mr Hunt arrived on the scene:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Look how Mark Fisher's majority fell from 19k in 1997 to under 10k in 2005.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038
    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,455

    HYUFD said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Well get campaigning then, there are 10 days to go, you can mourn or celebrate after and the undecideds can change everything even with yougov
    hear, hear.
    Indeed, I can accept people whinging for a bit AFTER the result but not 10 days BEFORE the result, every second spent whinging is a second lost getting out the vote in such a close race
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    edited June 2016
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I've never thought anything else, or posted anything else other than the leave campaign is abhorrently racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    A few years ago stoke voted a load of BNP councillors...certainly playing on fear of immigration but more a big f##k you to political establishment that they didn't feel represented by...wouldn't surprise if get a big leave vote for a similar reason.

    ....and the council is now basically a rainbow coalition of anyone but Labour.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,943
    SeanT said:

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    John harris videos always worth a watch.
    Yes, he has certainly been one of the first to try and awaken Labour elite to the meltdown that is happening to its traditional core vote 'out in the sticks'.
    He was brilliant in Scotland during the Labour GE meltdown. However he called that by-election, which Corbyn's Labour won, badly wrong. I forget which one it was.

    I can't help thinking, truly excellent journalist that he is, that is more attuned to disenchanted Labourites than loyalists. The former make for a better story. He wants a story.

    That said, he could be the perfect guy for sniffing out Labour LEAVERS

    "That said, he could be the perfect guy for sniffing out Labour LEAVERS"

    Not an arduous job frankly.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,504

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.
    Gove seems to be that un-Tory thing, an ideologue.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,577
    Fat_Steve said:

    Thought experiment - if remain did with, say 52 to 48, and you were David Cameron, what would you think on waking up the next morning ?

    Now the real fight begins.

    Plenty of Tory Leavers were already angry at his betrayal in confirming he was for Remain. Many more have been apoplectic at his conduct while campaigning for Remain. If he has the sheer gall to win the vote as well, they'll eat him alive as soon as they can, unless he can craft an exist strategy quick enough to stop them erupting in an orgy of party self destruction.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
    And quite possibly the majority of the British public.

    Not a fan of democracy?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.

    Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.

    Let them eat Sovereignty
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,720
    edited June 2016
    hunchman said:

    I get a sense that the remain campaign on Elizabeth Kubler-Ross' model are at the Bargaining stage. We had the initial Denial stage when the phone polls began to align with the internet polls a few weeks ago, when the first signs of momentum for the leave campaign that showed up. The last week or 10 days we've had the anger stage - some of the debates on here over that past time period have been amongst the most ferocious and hot headed that I can ever remember on here.

    And now we're coming to the bargaining stage - 'surely there must be something that we can offer the wavering leavers and newly committed leavers that will get you back to where you belong in the remain camp?!' I sense those incredulous remain campaigners quietly muttering to themselves.

    And then (hopefully as far as I'm concerned) the depression stage will come with the exit poll in just under 240 hours time. And they'll get to the acceptance stage in a fortnight once they've got through the weekend after the result.

    Sounds like Alastair Meeks has already moved into Stage 4.

    Cheer up Alastair! This is still the same country that it was a year ago. It's just that around half of it's voters disagree with you about the workability and effectiveness for Britain of membership of one complex multinational institution. Discouraging for you, but nothing to get too sad about. If I got all introspective every time half my countrymen took a different view to me about something I'd never get anything done.

    The world will still turn; you will still have the love and laughter of those closest to you.

    And.despite everything I still can't quite believe we might actually vote Leave. Don't referenda always swing back by 5 to 10% at the last minute?

    I'm still voting Leave though. Sorry.
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    I'm struggling to understand how 60% of Labour voters are for remain given all we're hearing from Islington. You'd think it was about 90-10 out.

    Do you still rely on NickP's canvass reports?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    So much bitterness from certain remainers. Worth considering that us leavers have had to suffer decades of being in the EU, it seems now the mere sniff of a brexit is on the cards certain people are acting like petulant children with baseless accusations and ruining their long built up reputations.
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    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    The inevitable rise in unemployment as the economy nosedives will surely lead naturally to a substantial reduction in immigration, especially from the EU. Why would they want to come here?
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    And all people who intend to vote leave by extension are racists? Come on Tyson, you make a lot of good posts even if I don't agree with them, but you can do a lot better than this drivel.
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    Fat_SteveFat_Steve Posts: 361
    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I've never thought anything else, or posted anything else other than the leave campaign is abhorrently racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
    You've got Tony Blair. Plus Mandeson and Osborne. Oh and Neill Kinnock. And Editor Izzard.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    kle4 said:

    tyson said:


    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    That may be so, but other people cannot get their heads around that even people who don't care about immigration can want to Leave. I dare say not a majority of Leavers, but enough such that it is incorrect to think it is the only factor of importance.
    Equally it's possible for people who do care about immigration to be for Remain.
    Quite so. Well said.

    If we BREXIT we need to remember we are all Brits. And we will be fine, if we hang together rather than hang apart. We've come through far worse.
    I have no intention of hanging together with those who have taken the country on a course without any planning or coherent idea of what they want against my judgement. Why should I?
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.

    I'm out on a limb on the trade deals but my boss, like you, is a businessman. He is very wealthy (eight figures territory) and he said the EU will move the goalposts in the event of a Brexit. He said money talks and the big business players across Europe will all want a new settlement.

    Basically Brexit will change everything.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,577
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
    And quite possibly the majority of the British public.

    Not a fan of democracy?
    Mr Tyson is refreshingly honest in disliking the downsides of democracy in fact - I've no doubt others share the sentiment but don't admit to it.
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.

    Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.
    Why will stopping most of the circa 80%+ of the EU migration which are unskilled jobs, cause economic damage, since these jobs can be done by British people that are not in work?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    John Harris ‏@johnharris1969 4m4 minutes ago
    #AnywhereButWestminster #EUref film no.1 tmrw morning: has Brexit got core Lab voters in #StokeonTrent? Check out @guardianvideo, 7.30am

    I suspect we on PB can guess the answer to John's question.

    Stoke-on-Trent is a prime case study in how Labour has lost touch with the WWC. Stoke has one of the lowest ethnic minority populations of all cities in the UK. The Labour majorities when totalled together in the 3 Stoke seats and Newcastle-under-Lyme came to little more than 12,500. Back as recently as 1992 Labour majorities in NUL and the 3 Stoke seats came to around 45,000. I'd expect North Staffordshire to be 60:40 in the favour of leave given the demographics, maybe even more towards leave.
    Yes but the Labour party gave them Tristram Hunt as a representative of the people......... Allegedly fixed up by Mandelson.
    Stoke Central was already trending away from Labour before Mr Hunt arrived on the scene:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_Central_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

    Look how Mark Fisher's majority fell from 19k in 1997 to under 10k in 2005.
    it had the lowest turnout in the country last G.E a lot of Labour voters must be staying at home thats why the majority is so small.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038

    Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    I'm more confident than that. I wouldn't trust Boris as far as I could throw him, but I would trust Gove.

    I don't think Gove will take any shit and he won't put his career before his convictions. He's the intellectual power behind the Tory campaign for Brexit and sovereignty appears to be his driving principle.

    I think he'll make it clear that laws will be made in Britain and nowhere else.

    In which case he'll run up against the City and business, both of which will be looking for something as close to EEA/EFTA as possible; and he'll risk doing significant long-term damage to the economy.

    Leave means controlling immigration. The economic damage that will cause cannot now be sidestepped if Leave win. That is now Leave's raison d'être.

    We'll see. Tory Leavers have said what they've needed to say in order to win. They'll find ways to wriggle out of what sounded at the time like firm commitments. Voters will, of course, notice.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,577
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I've never thought anything else, or posted anything else other than the leave campaign is abhorrently racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
    And my Mum.
    Is she a useful bellwether for predicting results generally?
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
    And quite possibly the majority of the British public.

    Not a fan of democracy?
    You can look to the Germany of the 30's to realise that democracy didn't quite achieve the best outcomes. Or maybe you can join yourself to other Brexiters, like our very own Rod who are holocaust deniers.

    Brexit is nihilistic, horrible, nasty, populist, regressive, reactionary politics. But it is built on a winning formula as we have seen in Putin's Russia, Serbian nationalism, and Nazism, and many others of its ilk.

    Brexit is unleashing a beast into England and Europe.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Fenster said:

    It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.

    For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen.

    Blinking heck man.... that's a touch bombastic.

    It's not as if the EU isn't going to implode anyway under the weight of its own debt.

    We'll still be driving Audis and drinking French wine next month. We'll just not have any more laws imposed on us from unelected Eurocrats.

    PS - I still think Remain will pinch it. But it is enjoyable in the meantime.

    My guess is that we'll still be getting plenty of our laws framed in Brussels post-Brexit. This will be part of the big betrayal, as will no major reduction in immigration.

    The inevitable rise in unemployment as the economy nosedives will surely lead naturally to a substantial reduction in immigration, especially from the EU. Why would they want to come here?
    For once I agree with you (although it wouldn't be Brexit to blame, but the global sovereign debt crisis). And if we get into a depression with a sovereign debt crisis then we could even see an outflow (small) the other way as incredulous as it seems right now. But look at what has happened in Greece - there are many people who emigrated there and simply haven't got the financial resources to return to where they came from.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    kle4 said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    Mortimer said:

    tyson said:

    The tawdry, racist leave campaign is obviously winning. Written straight from the Goebbels play book. Tried, tested, proven and utterly nihilistic.

    BTW- the leave campaign is 100% racist. It hints at a bright white future, whilst most people drawn to it are too ignorant or ill informed to get their racist heads around the fact that EU has nothing to do with non white immigration to the UK. I'd laugh, if it wasn't so horrible.

    People just cannot get their hands around that leaving the EU will leave the UK poorer and less equipped to deal with non white immigration.

    BTW- Sadiq Khan today has shown that he has more leadership in tip of of his finger tip than the loathsome, narcissist Boris.

    Seems to be the night for throwing unfounded and ill informed accusations around.

    I do like changes in the narrative like today - it shows people in a clearer light.
    I never thought anything else, or posted anything else that the leave campaign is racist and built on ignorance. You are sided my friend with the English hooligans, the EDL, the BNP, Galloway, revolutionary marxists, Farage, and opportunistic narcissists like Boris and Gove. Enjoy your bedfellows.
    And quite possibly the majority of the British public.

    Not a fan of democracy?
    Mr Tyson is refreshingly honest in disliking the downsides of democracy in fact - I've no doubt others share the sentiment but don't admit to it.
    A refreshingly honest anti-democrat still has no respect for the views of the people.
This discussion has been closed.