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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM polls bring fresh pain for Remain

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    You could, but your argument was on social class.
    Your argument was on turnout
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    kle4 said:

    In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.

    I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577


    I doubt anyone has heard of Stuart Rose. But generally, I agree: life is tough, Leave is a vote for change.

    I'm not sure its even a vote for change. It's a vote to be LISTENED TO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    glw said:

    I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
    Yes, but just one year ago those same angry people voted for bland party automatons. I don't say it is just the referendum, but as a release for angry people to manifest it seems highly significant.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    More appeals to authority coming later in the week:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/742455482812649472
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    classy Italian goal....
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    Yeah but has he read out "The snake" yet :D ?
    He conveyed the same message in a more eloquent and specific manner...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    SeanT said:

    In my experience, when someone starts talking hopefully about a "political realignment" it means "their" side is probably going to take a beating, and they are trying, subconsciously, to salvage some emotional consolation from the expected wreckage.

    I remember Southam spouting the exact same stuff when he was predicting a YES win in Sindyref.

    No, my great realignment hope was 2010. But you're probably right about what I was subconciously thinking. By Sindy hope was a constitutional convention. Probably the same impulse. I'd still like to see both, though.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    No, my great realignment hope was 2010. But you're probably right about what I was subconciously thinking. By Sindy hope was a constitutional convention. Probably the same impulse. I'd still like to see both, though.

    Ditto
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,525

    Andrew Cooper strangely quiet on twitter tonight.

    Another one for the political chop if Leave win.

    His mistake was to believe that Cameron should emulate Blair.
  • blairfblairf Posts: 98
    HYUFD said:

    Well an 'entrepreneur' who earns £20,000 a year is basically C2 anyway isn't he, he is hardly in Branson or Sugar's league who are both billionaires
    yes he is, and that's my point. NRS social grade is an s.h.1.t tool to try and characterise the mood of the nation by demography. All serious demographers stopped using it in about 1995. But polling continues because it is easy and familiar. It is a common rant from professional analysts that ABC1 is absolute bollox as a way of segmenting views, but polling companies repeatedly do it... cr4p knows why.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Branson would now be ABs, both of course back Remain
    Blairf's point is very valid.

    ABC1 is stuffed to the gills with public sector workers.

    C2DE will have virtually none.

    C2DE are exposed through work to competition from the EU, whether by competing labour here or by the shifting of capital and investment to abroad.

    The public sector have been exempted that competition, so far.

    If the EU offered a grant to HMRC call centres or the DVLA office to relocate to eastern Europe, as they have down with private industry, then the ABC1s would shift to leave in greater numbers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Sean_F said:

    Why should that be scary? Every election from 1935 till recently broke down on class lines.

    It's not so much class, though, as values. Middle class and wealthy voters in London will go massively remain. But middl class and wealthy voters in Bedfordshire will support Leave.
    You could equally say working class and poor voters in Bedfordshire will go massively Leave, working class and poor voters in London will support Remain, the divide is still there (and it is perfectly possible that middle class Tories in Bedfordshire may narrowly vote Remain and working class Labour voters in London may narrowly vote Leave)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    I doubt anyone has heard of Stuart Rose. But generally, I agree: life is tough, Leave is a vote for change.

    He has quit the Remain campaign btw.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Dembele 0 mins
    Fellaini 90 mins

    Incredible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Everyone should look on the bright side -

    If we remain we'll have

    More money
    A very strong economy.

    If we leave we'll have

    Cheaper houses.
    More greenbelt.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,429
    Thanks, everyone, for all the conversations.

    I'm still expecting Remain to win, but I'm enjoying the hope that they might not. And maybe the struggle to get over the line will be useful in itself, if the vote is close enough.

    Night, all.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    Any polls due tonight? :wink:
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    Sean_F said:

    His mistake was to believe that Cameron should emulate Blair.
    He also said the only criticism he'd take of the Better Together campaign is that it wasn't negative enough.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited June 2016
  • More appeals to authority coming later in the week:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/742455482812649472

    Are they really going to dig out firms like CRAPITA and G4S?
    Easy for Leave to counter.
    "Vote Remain" says company who earn £Xbn from the taxpayer each year,
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    imo Unions will only become relevant again when they ditch the political connections and put their members welfare first and foremost
    Tbe BMA JDC for instance ;-)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Sean_F said:

    Why should that be scary? Every election from 1935 till recently broke down on class lines.

    It's not so much class, though, as values. Middle class and wealthy voters in London will go massively remain. But middl class and wealthy voters in Bedfordshire will support Leave.
    Class I can cope with - it is when it starts breaking down by race or religion that it gets really scary.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited June 2016
    glw said:

    I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
    Maverick politicians currently have the upper hand over the managerialists.

    Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.

    The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.

    It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.

    I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    chestnut said:

    Blairf's point is very valid.

    ABC1 is stuffed to the gills with public sector workers.

    C2DE will have virtually none.

    C2DE are exposed through work to competition from the EU, whether by competing labour here or by the shifting of capital and investment to abroad.

    The public sector have been exempted that competition, so far.

    If the EU offered a grant to HMRC call centres or the DVLA office to relocate to eastern Europe, as they have down with private industry, then the ABC1s would shift to leave in greater numbers.
    C2DEs will have plenty of public sector workers from firemen to dinner ladies actually. ABC1 includes doctors, lawyers, stockbrokers, managers and executives
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    The ICM tables show Scotland only 54%-44% for Remain. Can that be right?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:
    Just another boring poll swinging slightly to Leave (within MOE).

    Why couldn't they have announced it was coming out at 10.00 and then delayed it to 12.00 - have they no style.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    blairf said:

    yes he is, and that's my point. NRS social grade is an s.h.1.t tool to try and characterise the mood of the nation by demography. All serious demographers stopped using it in about 1995. But polling continues because it is easy and familiar. It is a common rant from professional analysts that ABC1 is absolute bollox as a way of segmenting views, but polling companies repeatedly do it... cr4p knows why.
    No, on your basis Del Boy Trotter would be an entrepreneur. At the general election the Tories won graduates and the highest earners, UKIP did best with the lowest earners and those with just GCSEs, there is a lot of overlap
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    The currency markets seem to be doing a great job of predicting Brexit opinion polls. They must be impossible for pollsters to secure - they don't normally have a target this big painted on their backs.

    If you bet on this market (or on the GBP markets), you should consider that the person you're betting against may well have more information than you.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    nunu said:

    The ICM tables show Scotland only 54%-44% for Remain. Can that be right?

    10/1 on Leave winning Scotland with Ladbrokes.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    When it rains it pours...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,525
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:
    49/44 Remain among all voters, compared to 52/40 last week.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,990
    Fenster said:

    Maverick politicians currently have the upper hand over the managerialists.

    Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.

    The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.

    It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.

    I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
    John Cleese? He's a lifelong Lib Dem (and all its previous incarnations). What the hell did he think he was supporting?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    weejonnie said:

    Class I can cope with - it is when it starts breaking down by race or religion that it gets really scary.
    Up to us to make sure that never happens.

    Right, signing off for the night now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    SeanT said:

    LEAVE now consistently in the lead with phone pollsters.

    ORB have been the best for REMAIN.

    I reckon LEAVE are now ahead 3-5 across the country - and they have the Momentum - and therefore the odds against LEAVE winning are now nuts. You can still get 9/5
    I agree the odds should shift more to Leave but Mori and Comres have tended to be best for Remain and the ORB online was what gave Leave its 10% lead
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.

    Liz Kendall (4%) was your solution though.

    Irrelevant and unelectable personified!!

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    Sun declares for LEAVE (with Sunil as editor?)

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742462098563825668
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    John Cleese? He's a lifelong Lib Dem (and all its previous incarnations). What the hell did he think he was supporting?
    Go check his Twitter feed!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    SeanT said:
    That is an online poll and Remain plus don't knows is 4% ahead of Leave, it is never over until it is over
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    So when do we expect to see the obamarama bounce.in the polls?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    Sean_F said:

    49/44 Remain among all voters, compared to 52/40 last week.
    So again turnout is key
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690

    NEW THREAD NEW THREAD

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138

    Sun declares for LEAVE (with Sunil as editor?)

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742462098563825668

    No surprise there but I hope they are paying royalties to Sunil?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited June 2016
    IndyRef had one poll which showed Yes winning, only one, to back up the anecdotal data that seemed to indicate they were doing well, and in the end No one pretty comfortably. Leave have many many polls showing them winning, backed up by anecdotal data, and even if things swing back by the same amount Remain at best squeak a win.

    It surely will now be either very tight Remain or an easy Leave win.
  • How is 7/4 still available for Leave?!?!

    INSANE
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Wow!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    SeanT said:
    There is a week left. I know this is more than just one Survation poll but remember SIndyref
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SeanT said:

    LEAVE now consistently in the lead with phone pollsters.

    ORB have been the best for REMAIN.

    I reckon LEAVE are now ahead 3-5 across the country - and they have the Momentum - and therefore the odds against LEAVE winning are now nuts. You can still get 9/5
    There still seem to be a lot of people who either a) cannot believe it is happening or b) can forecast the result better than we can -or why is Leave still 2.74 on Betfair - with a lot willing to back Remain at tighter odds.
  • He has quit the Remain campaign btw.
    Still listed on wikipedia as its Chair but BSIE no longer list who is on their Board AFAIK.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    John Cleese? He's a lifelong Lib Dem (and all its previous incarnations). What the hell did he think he was supporting?
    He was in favour of the Euro. Now? Not so much.

    See for example:
    https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/741758545687924736
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,121
    @Alistair Meeks

    There is no point trying to engage with the Brexiters, here, on the nuances. I tried yesterday on the economy, but got no reply.

    There will be an economic shock once we vote for Brexit, succeeded by years of uncertainty, political and economic. Quite what the end game will be is difficult to predict.

    Since I've got quite a few assets in Europe I'm alright Jack........ however this vote turns out. But there are UK people on this site who have UK mortgages, savings, private pensions, plans for the future, who have just bought houses, who cannot remember high inflation or stagflation...well they'll going to see what a prolonged economic shock can do to their prospects, and it ain't pretty.
This discussion has been closed.