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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM polls bring fresh pain for Remain
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM polls bring fresh pain for Remain
Support for leaving the EU is strengthening, with both phone and online surveys reporting a six-point lead, according to a new pair of Guardian/ICM polls.
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Disappointed you missed that chance to use the bogeyman....
Spoilt ballots, maybe?
Genuinely fascinating we might leave, though.
On an unrelated note, could Mr. 1000 or Mr. Eagles clarify the status of MikeK? He isn't banned, but says he can't post.
(To clarify, it isn't Mr. Meeks)
Never in a month of Sundays did I ever think we'd be here.
If Senior Labour Figures argue the migration deal is insufficient and go public, then there is no way that Cameron can win.
Labour voters are not going to vote for Cameron if their own side is telling them the deal is bad.
There is definitely an opportunity here for Labour. They can disassociate themselves from the defeat and let the Tories own it.
Still time for a last minute intervention.
'It woz the Pensions Expert 'wot won it' has a lovely ring to it....
Overheard conversation in waiting room at work. Several retired old fellows moaning about the money going to the EU rather than NHS.
Overheard conversation between 3 nurses, one white British, one Indian and one Filipino (all naturalised so eligible to vote). All undecided, but leaning Leave over the subject of immigration.
I think both these memes are hollow, but they are working.
No more EU regional funding - the Government can't even bring itself to give us a decent railway system and dual carriageways, they won't match what the EU has invested.
Edinburgh ....... 2/1
Cambridge ....... 4/1
Oxford ............ 4/1
Islington ......... 6/1
Hackney ........... 6/1
Aren't the precise geographical areas of at least some rather too vague to enable the percentages to be ascertained exactly?
It is also nasty, openly xenophobic and entirely lacking in any kind of realistic vision about how the country will look after a Leave vote.
I can quite understand why you are so enthusiastically signed up to it.
How can there be a vow? Who would believe it? How can the rest of the EU agree it? Why wasn't it in the deal? Why would it make a difference? How many questions can I put in a sentence?
It's pointless being a sore loser until you actually lose. Then by all means ...
I still think you're favourites though.
Cameron's way too invested now to change tack - and if he did, few will believe him. As I said FTP - that only 21% of Undecideds trust BoE Carney is astonishing. Remain experts carry little weight - whatever their provenance.
Why grim reading for the Labour party? They end up with a new PM, an untested new Govt and massive splits in the Conservative party. The only Labour people upset are the bulk of their MPs but they were unhappy before the referendum and are out of touch with members (on Corbyn) and out of touch with a large part of Labour's voters (about the referendum).
Mr. Dawning, the lead is small, margin of error is a few points and we know polls can be wildly wrong.
Mr. Observer, agree on Cameron. After his stunning election victory, he seems to have been incredibly complacent and arrogant. More recently, he's ruined his own credibility.
Remain is also nasty, openly relying on fear and entirely lacking in any kind of realistic vision about how the EU will look after a Remain vote.
I agree with you that Remain are still favourites for me. The damage done to the social fabric of this country by a Leave campaign based on xenophobic impossibilism will, however, be long lasting, whichever side wins.
A1 Morpeth to Ellingham – we’ll upgrade the existing single carriageway to dual carriageway between Morpeth and Felton and Alnwick and Ellingham creating a continuous, high-quality dual carriageway from Newcastle to Ellingham
•A1 north of Ellingham – we’ll enhance the performance and safety of this section of road, including overtaking opportunities, junction improvements and improved crossing facilities for pedestrians and cyclists
I think Juncker has been asked to keep quiet about the UK referendum with the caveat that he may be allowed to speak during the last week of the campaign if things are looking bad for Remain.
Something tells me we might be hearing from him very soon.
EEA/EFTA will piss off any number of immigration-focused Leavers.
A deal in which significant curbs on immigration are the centrepiece will alienate large parts of business and the City.
Boris is about to find out what the SNP did not have to find out in 2014 - you can't promise unicorns and not deliver them without upsetting an awful lot of people.
We'll never know of course, but it was certainly a major negative for me that he tried to take us for fools.
The Tory party will be about as divided after a Leave vote as the SNP would be after a Scottish Yes vote.
As to the markets riding to the rescue. Forget it. Those who have decided to go will not be swayed by the City and foreign investors holding a gun to their collective head. Not that there is any sign of panic in the markets anyway.
I remember being at a trade fair in Cambridge, returning after having a lovely dinner at 22 where I'd remarked to all present that some meaningful concessions would surely be made, only to find a load of PR codswallop. At that moment I came out for Leave. After more than a decade of being a huge Cameron cheerleader.
This time, Mr Cameron, the PR didn't wash.
"Fuck off, Juncker, we're voting Leave"
There has been a strange creaking sound these past weeks, as thousands of Eurocrats walk around on eggshells. They are at breaking point.
If Remain squeak this and then there's a barrage of saved-up announcements that could have shown Brussels in its true light, there'll be hell to pay.... Leave, dishonest? You ain't seen nothing till you've seen Remain.
How hard would it be to bodge the freedom of movement to 'continental EU' - excluding islands?
Tusk using Izzard's line that only the EU will protect us from losing our humanity, descent into barbarism and threatening Western civilisation matches the idiocy.
Remain are way beyond hyperbole - inciting Nazis looks a bit tame now.
Twitter
Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 8h8 hours ago
SNP and Labour leaderships will be equally culpable if there's a Brexit vote in the 23rd.
I think it may drift down a bit more, and the FTSE 250 may do too being more UK centered. I don't forecast a meltdown though.
And there are so many potential Black swan events over the next 10 days - expulsion from Euro 2016, the Trump visit, anything like Orlando within the EU area (I hope not), more migrants trying to cross the Channel illegally etc.
As for GBPUSD, there is a heck of a lot of support starting at the 1.3503 February 2009 low, monthly bearish reversal at 1.3750 area, prior February 25th low this year at 1.3883 and 1.4055 low in early April...........so short of Brexit being confirmed in the exit poll, I don't see GBP facing an outright collapse in the next 10 days.
Despite being very much in favour of leaving the EU there is a lot that I dislike/disagree with in the leave campaign, though not to Wollaston levels though.
I cannot understand though how you can complain about leave campaign being nasty or unrealistic. At least there is some semblance of a positive idea about the future, even if several competing ones, rather than an unrelenting litany of threats and misery from the remain campaign with no mention at all of how the EU might evolve once we've listened to our betters and voted in.
It's not where they are from (I'd swap those guys for some of the indigenous any day of the week), it's the driving down of working class wages and the fact that much of their wages aren't being spent here. The parents of the Lithuanian girl openly say they are sending their money back home to pay for a lovely home and a better life there. They work round the clock, probably for pittance on zero hour contracts... and fair play to them. But I can't see how what they do is good for our economy or for the working classes (and there are lots and lots of us).
We aren't all gilded lilies who live in leafy parts of Shire England. Life really is tough for many of us.
Even though I think the Remain camp will win, I hope the establishment are shocked into realising how tough it is for us over this side of the fence and stop just labelling us as xenophobic, small-minded, uneducated, unsophisticated neanderthals. Unlimited EU immigration has not made our lives easier, better or wealthier. This EU Referendum has given us a chance to make our feelings clear on that.
The betting jaws are closing in.
This is very, very, very sensible at this point in the campaign.
Which in old money equals value destruction. A huge opportunity cost borne not by you, who sees in elegant theoretical terms how interesting a project a UK out of the EU might be, but by those least able to afford it.
I see our exiting the EU in exactly the same terms as I do a Labour government. It will do its thing and life will go on, but a huge amount of value will be destroyed, and opportunity cost incurred for the sake of a flawed ideological premise.