The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
The thing that is most likely to rescue his legacy - or make it less abysmal - is what happens post-Brexit. If Boris tanks, then that will make Dave look a whole lot better.
I think you are far too negative about our future if we leave. I think after a short term downturn we would do very well. We are a strong trading nation and armed with a weak currency we would do well.
I am very negative about it. We are a trading nation that is about to remove ourselves from a single market that accounts for 45% of our direct foreign trade and also creates many more invaluable opportunities (see this morning's thread header). What's more, our future is going to be in the hands of people like Boris Johnson, Piri Patel, John Whittingdale, Michael Gove and Chris Grayling - none of who inspire a scintilla of confidence in me.
I very much hope to be proved wrong. We will find out very soon.
Having spent a bit to purchase my hero Martin Amstrong's Brexit report, one of the great insights into it was how the 309.6 year cycle that has historically appeared to govern the rise and decline of civilizations. If we regard the birth of the UK as the Act of Union between England and Scotland on 1st May 1707, then the 309.6 year cycle targets the 5th / 6th December this year.
I've got an idea as to what I think might happen around early December this year, but I might offend TSE if I talk about it!
This is why Vote Leave are playing these polls down and still saying it's 50/50 (which it probably is)
Mike Smithson 5m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Biggest hope for REMAIN from ICM polling is that LEAVE vote concentrated amongst C2DEs - the socio-economic group least likely to vote
We'll see. They seem, based on my street stall, to be a) fired up to get out and b) many claim already have done so by post.
Mr. 86, there's a change. I wonder if they'll use the T-word more often.
In reference to the gay nightclub shooting, I take it?
Yes, I'm being a bit fictitious - it's the only word to describe such actions. I've just watched the Owen Jones thing from last night. On the one hand I can understand that Jones was upset - I can believe such an attack would have a personal impact on someone who may go to such clubs. I felt a shiver go down my spine when I first heard about the Stade de France attacks.
But what annoys me is this sense that we should be more angry about these murders because it is a 'hate crime'. I'm sorry, but indiscriminate terrorist attacks are just as bad. Perhaps in future, media outlets like the Guardian won't be so quick to jump to the defence of Islam the next time there is an attack on a city like Paris or London.
All violent crimes are hate crimes. I dislike hierarchies of victimhood.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Cameron doesn't care because he's got a nuclear bunker under Whitehall. There's one right here too and I've got access to it. But you plebs are all about to die in the July nuclear war.
This is why Vote Leave are playing these polls down and still saying it's 50/50 (which it probably is)
Mike Smithson 5m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Biggest hope for REMAIN from ICM polling is that LEAVE vote concentrated amongst C2DEs - the socio-economic group least likely to vote
That directly contradicts certainty to vote where leave has continually held a larger lead amongst those certain to vote. Oh the dichotomy!
Wintour? Hmmmm.... Labour blaming the Tories that Labour voters wouldn't, er, vote for the Tories. It requires some brass neck to pull that one off.
Cameron sowed the seeds of his own destruction. You can't spend years talking in negative terms about the EU and immigration, and then expect the voting public to take you seriously when you change your mind completely and with no real explanation. History will judge him harshly, but perhaps not as harshly as the Leavers who take over from him.
And Jeremy Corbyn has been a huge fan of the EU project for years, oh wait...
Twitter Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 8h8 hours ago SNP and Labour leaderships will be equally culpable if there's a Brexit vote in the 23rd.
Lol at farquharson trying to make this SNPBad.
Kenny is as thick as you can get, an irrelevant plonker.
Overheard conversation in waiting room at work. Several retired old fellows moaning about the money going to the EU rather than NHS.
Overheard conversation between 3 nurses, one white British, one Indian and one Filipino (all naturalised so eligible to vote). All undecided, but leaning Leave over the subject of immigration.
I think both these memes are hollow, but they are working.
Why do you think remain are so incensed by the £350m figure?
It is a blatent lie and sounds like a lot of money. It is a meme (with immigration) that strikes a chord.
It's not a blatant lie. It's what we give to them then they give us a chunk back - but they tell us how to spend it. It is one valid way of expressing our contribution, along with others.
This was another major error by REMAIN. By continuously bitching about this figure they simply made everyone look at the figure and gasp in horror. £350m a week, £250m a week - these ALL seem like huge numbers to most voters.
It is a lie, but even after the rebate and net spend still a large amout of money. Truth no longer matters once the lie is established. In the post-modern world there is no absolute truth, just opinions that even when illinformed are held to be of equal value.
We are one of the wealthier countries in Europe and I am reasonably happy about subsidising the poorer areas of Europe to develop, just as a higher rate taxpayer I expect to subsidise poorer members of society. No one makes that argument though.
But the poorer countries in Europe are locked in sclerosis. Our membership doesn't appear to be doing them any good either.
The altruistic argument is noble, but just because an agreement is bad for us doesn't mean it's necessarily good for someone else - or at least not for the someone else that we might intend. Meanwhile, we're stopping impoverished African farmers from trading with us.
The poorer countries in Europe are certainly doing rather patchily, but also are the wealthier ones like Italy. Greece and Portugal are doing notably poorly, but Romania, Bulgaria and much of the A8 are growing reasonably well. The EU funds for infrastructure and modern agriculture are well spent.
Trade deals with Africa are more controversial. The EU has been pushing tariff free access for much of Africa in return for dismantaling African tariffs too.
African farmers do well from these deals, the people who do worst are African Customs Officials who lose income from their sticky fingers. Like it or not (and I think Africa probably does need to protect indiginous industries still) the EU is pursuing a Free Trade Area with much of Africa.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
We had recessions when we were in the EU. I don't see a difference myself. The global crash in 2008 was in the EU too.
Coming up: Trump's Big Anti-Terrorism Speech from Manchester, NH...
The teleprompters are out, which means we'll get two versions of the speech simultaneously - the version on the prompter, and the ad libbed interjections translating it into Trump-speak.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
Michael Gove may just be a genius.
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
So why have the poor fared so poorly under EU membership in Britain, arguably since 1979?
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Do you really think that's what it's like in the UK now? As someone who has scarpered I find it curious that you feel you can talk for the people who actually live here.
Have you seen east London recently?
I might have added that in certain metropolitan areas there is certainly a broad range of cultures.
But worrying about Polish supermarkets? Don't think so.
Wintour? Hmmmm.... Labour blaming the Tories that Labour voters wouldn't, er, vote for the Tories. It requires some brass neck to pull that one off.
Cameron sowed the seeds of his own destruction. You can't spend years talking in negative terms about the EU and immigration, and then expect the voting public to take you seriously when you change your mind completely and with no real explanation. History will judge him harshly, but perhaps not as harshly as the Leavers who take over from him.
And Jeremy Corbyn has been a huge fan of the EU project for years, oh wait...
Twitter Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 8h8 hours ago SNP and Labour leaderships will be equally culpable if there's a Brexit vote in the 23rd.
Yep, Corbyn will have a great deal of responsibility too; not that he will give a flying fig. Don't think I'd blame the SNP, though. Scotland looks sure to vote Remain. The fact is that this is Cameron's campaign, just as it was his decision to buy off his right wing with the referendum promise in the first place. He spent eight years talking down the EU and making negative noises about immigration solely, it turns out, for electoral advantage. He has inflicted this defeat on himself and will be judged accordingly.
Corbyn and Sturgeon are going to be the big winners out of all of this. Sturgeon will pounce immediately after Leave's victory, demanding another SindyRef and probably winning it. Corbyn will then have, in his eyes, a stranded England ripe for revolution. Brexit will have humiliated the Labour moderates too, leaving them redundant and the far-Left in charge of Labour for ever.
Sadly, Corbyn is the Tory get out of jail free card. This is a huge opportunity for Labour that the membership will undoubtedly squander.
That's wishful thinking on the Tory side.
The Tories are on the brink of a historic disaster. They've turned on the Cameron centrist project and will take over seems poised to immediately destroy any trust by lurching towards a deal that won't end free movement.
Corbyn couldn't wish for a better set of circumstances.
Yep, the Tories are turning right and will disappoint many on the final Brexit deal. There will be many cries of betrayal. But Corbyn is Corbyn, I'm afraid. He is unelectable. Another Labour leader - even McDonnell (who personally I could not vote for) - and you would have a point.
The turn toward the free market right ultra-right may well destroy the tories for generations. The economic catastrophe on its way accompanying it, may also destroy any reputation for pragmatism. All too late for the country, though.
This is why Vote Leave are playing these polls down and still saying it's 50/50 (which it probably is)
Mike Smithson 5m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Biggest hope for REMAIN from ICM polling is that LEAVE vote concentrated amongst C2DEs - the socio-economic group least likely to vote
That directly contradicts certainty to vote where leave has continually held a larger lead amongst those certain to vote. Oh the dichotomy!
Maybe there is nothing inherently apathetic about C2DEs. Maybe they just happen to be concentrated in safe seats where voting at a GE is pointless? Just a guess? I don't have any psephological stats to hand to bacvk this up.
There is even a huge LEAVE sign on my bedroom door and my wife knows nothing about the EU.
You're quite right to want to keep your wife out if she isn't a Europhile
LOL - love her. It's amazing that she's spent twenty years paying taxes and she wouldn't be able to tell you who the Chancellor is. Absolute blissful ignorance.
I admire you politicians who spent decades canvassing the likes of my wife. The frustrations and fascinations must be endless
Which is to be fair what Salmond and the Scot Nats have been saying about the Remain campaign for weeks. He took part with Alan Johnstone on the only TV debate that Remain have actually won arguing a positive case FOR immigration and a positive case FOR peace and co-operation in Europe.
Well Salmond and Sturgeon whatever you think of them have got more political nous than all of the Labour and Tory remain campaigners put together. Yet I sense that they themselves are terribly torn on the issue as they can see the opportunities of a leave vote to get Scottish independence and apply to get back into the EU after that........which will be much easier if Scotland as a whole votes remain amongst an overall leave vote, when compared with SINDY in advance of a leave referendum result.
But they have just decided (or confirmed) that Scotland would continue to use the £. Or has that changed again?
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Do you really think that's what it's like in the UK now? As someone who has scarpered I find it curious that you feel you can talk for the people who actually live here.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
Michael Gove may just be a genius.
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Genius.
I was struck this morning when reading Gove's whole experience over his father's fishing business going belly up over the Common Fisheries Policy, which has obviously fuelled a burning desire in him to campaign as he has over the past 3 months. And yet, I never had him down as one of the staunchest Eurosceptics in the cabinet.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
pah details.
FREEDOM!
Freedom to do what? Pick over the chicken bones.
Exactly.
They have absolutely no idea.
Oh, it's up to the government, they say. Our 16-page manifesto which includes, inter alia, a commitment to regain control over our borders, should be ignored.
After all, as with every other election in the UK from time immemorial (not), we need to worry about what the losing side and a few wishful thinking PB Leavers want.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
The thing that is most likely to rescue his legacy - or make it less abysmal - is what happens post-Brexit. If Boris tanks, then that will make Dave look a whole lot better.
I think you are far too negative about our future if we leave. I think after a short term downturn we would do very well. We are a strong trading nation and armed with a weak currency we would do well.
I am very negative about it. We are a trading nation that is about to remove ourselves from a single market that accounts for 45% of our direct foreign trade and also creates many more invaluable opportunities (see this morning's thread header). What's more, our future is going to be in the hands of people like Boris Johnson, Piri Patel, John Whittingdale, Michael Gove and Chris Grayling - none of who inspire a scintilla of confidence in me.
I very much hope to be proved wrong. We will find out very soon.
"... remove ourselves from a single market ..." Sorry, Mr. O., but I have to ask in what way are we going to remove ourselves (assuming a leave vite that is)? Are we going to stop trying tp sell them our goods and services? Are we going to stop buying their's?
The telephone on which I have been speaking to my son is manufactured in South Korea, the glass of wine by my elbow comes from New Zealand. Neither countries are members of the EU both seem to be able to sell into this mystical single market.
This is why Vote Leave are playing these polls down and still saying it's 50/50 (which it probably is)
Mike Smithson 5m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Biggest hope for REMAIN from ICM polling is that LEAVE vote concentrated amongst C2DEs - the socio-economic group least likely to vote
That directly contradicts certainty to vote where leave has continually held a larger lead amongst those certain to vote. Oh the dichotomy!
Maybe there is nothing inherently apathetic about C2DEs. Maybe they just happen to be concentrated in safe seats where voting at a GE is pointless? Just a guess? I don't have any psephological stats to hand to bacvk this up.
Mine For Nothing ICM poll - % of voters "certain to vote"
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
We had recessions when we were in the EU. I don't see a difference myself. The global crash in 2008 was in the EU too.
Hmm, I clearly didn't write that as clearly as I hoped. Let me try again. There's a recession due. There's usually some event that kicks them off. Brexit is a prime candidate for this time round.
Recessions are like forest fires. Horrible, but apparently necessary. I've suffered in a couple and sailed through a couple.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
1. has already been dealt with by YBarddCwsc. Our science funding and access to these organisations does not depend on EU membership. 2. Most of those standards are decided at an international level above the EU by organstions such as UNECE or Codex Alimentarius. These are organisations where we have no voice as we have ceded our voting rights to the EU. 3. We have bilateral agreements which match the EHIC with every other non EU country in Europe as well as major Commonwealth countries around the world. We even had the same deal with Russia and its satellites until the beginning of this year when it was suspended as part of our sanctions against them. 4. See 2 above. We do not have more clout. We just lose our voice.
I think he's got it completely reversed. People have lost faith in politics, so they've spat the dummy.
They'll deliver, but what they'll deliver in terms of domestic policy, wil be absolutely the opposite of what many populist brexit voters are convinced of. Expect not only significant economic damage, but some form of tory collapse.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
The Remain campaign has been (literally) catastrophic on many levels, but by far their greatest blunder was underestimating Boris. For someone who actively campaigned for an amnesty for illegal immigrants to then run on the ticket 'Brexit = end to all immigration from anywhere' was an act of barnstorming audacity. I can't remember any politician in my lifetime having that amount of neck. It's worked like a charm though. Dave is destroyed and the premiership is almost within his grasp.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
pah details.
FREEDOM!
Freedom to do what? Pick over the chicken bones.
Exactly.
They have absolutely no idea.
Oh, it's up to the government, they say. Our 16-page manifesto which includes, inter alia, a commitment to regain control over our borders, should be ignored.
After all, as with every other election in the UK from time immemorial (not), we need to worry about what the losing side and a few wishful thinking PB Leavers want.
We'll be free to avoid a few EU directives a year, most of which our ministers completely agreed with at EU meetings, in exchange from walking away from the single market at a time when our economy is already fragile.
Lord George Robertson - "Devolution will kill the SNP stone dead" 1997
Alistair - Independence will have the SNP dead "within a decade"
Sound familiar???
The SNP is broadly made of three factions which includes out and out socialists and right wing populist pro business types. The only thing that keeps them together as a coherent party is the strive for independence.
With that aim achieved there is nothing to keep them together bar the banal lust for power and that can only result in fracturing as irreconcilable groups attack each other.
I'm a independence supporting SNP voter but it is pretty clear the SNP is toast post Indy if it ever happened.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
welcome back malc :-)
Hello Alan, had a tough day , poor old Billy the Kid got both barrels
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
We had recessions when we were in the EU. I don't see a difference myself. The global crash in 2008 was in the EU too.
Hmm, I clearly didn't write that as clearly as I hoped. Let me try again. There's a recession due. There's usually some event that kicks them off. Brexit is a prime candidate for this time round.
Recessions are like forest fires. Horrible, but apparently necessary. I've suffered in a couple and sailed through a couple.
I like and rate Gove, the way I like and rate Ed Balls.
Both are marmite and would be terrible leaders in the 24-hour media glare. But they've both got big cojones, are brave enough to say the unsayable and know what they want. Signposts rather than weather-vanes.
All brave, radical politicians will make mistakes and enemies but I admire them for being willing to stick their necks out and make a difference.
Voters don't like them, but politics needs more of them.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
We had recessions when we were in the EU. I don't see a difference myself. The global crash in 2008 was in the EU too.
Hmm, I clearly didn't write that as clearly as I hoped. Let me try again. There's a recession due. There's usually some event that kicks them off. Brexit is a prime candidate for this time round.
Recessions are like forest fires. Horrible, but apparently necessary. I've suffered in a couple and sailed through a couple.
You've sailed through a forest fire?
I give up . I've clearly lost the ability to communicate lol.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
Michael Gove may just be a genius.
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Genius.
He could stand in Scottish parliament if Dave sacks him out of vindictivness, he would get elected on the list I believe his family live in Aberdeen?. I don't think Dave will be a goner if it is Leave, most MP's still have loyalty for him, I suspect that is the reason Tory MP's are coming out for Remain. They would not have amajority without Dave.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Do you really think that's what it's like in the UK now? As someone who has scarpered I find it curious that you feel you can talk for the people who actually live here.
Have you seen east London recently?
I might have added that in certain metropolitan areas there is certainly a broad range of cultures.
But worrying about Polish supermarkets? Don't think so.
People are pissed off, there is no denying that. They - rightly - feel they have been screwed over. They were told we are all in this together and it turns out that is not true. Living standards have stagnated, public services have been cut, housing is increasingly unavailable, they hear and see more foreigners on their streets. Whatever the complex reality, you can't blame a single working person for linking the crap they are going through to immigration and the EU - especially given the fact that those leading the government have been telling them thee is a direct link for the last eight or nine years. It is a totally understandable reaction and one that the entire elite - Leave and Remain, Labour and Tory (and LibDem) - are responsible for.
My fear is that post-Brexit, these same people will find out that housing does not get cheaper, wages do not rise significantly, public services are not improved, and immigration is not tackled in any meaningful way. In fact, my fear is that things will actually get worse. My fear is that they have been sold a false prospectus by people that have no real interest in looking after the interests of ordinary working people, but have been using them and their hopes and fears to get the keys to power so that they can take the UK even further to the right than it is currently. In short, I fear that sooner rather than later the currently lionised members of the working class will find out that once again they have been conned.
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Do you really think that's what it's like in the UK now? As someone who has scarpered I find it curious that you feel you can talk for the people who actually live here.
Lord George Robertson - "Devolution will kill the SNP stone dead" 1997
Alistair - Independence will have the SNP dead "within a decade"
Sound familiar???
The SNP is broadly made of three factions which includes out and out socialists and right wing populist pro business types. The only thing that keeps them together as a coherent party is the strive for independence.
With that aim achieved there is nothing to keep them together bar the banal lust for power and that can only result in fracturing as irreconcilable groups attack each other.
I'm a independence supporting SNP voter but it is pretty clear the SNP is toast post Indy if it ever happened.
Clinton forced to back down and say the words 'radical Islam'. She's in total denial, and broadcasts true weakness throughout the world. She said 'Muslims are peaceful!'
She wants to take away our guns, and then admit the very people who want to slaughter us!
Comments
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/unlike-euro-2016-eu-referendum-8182469
I very much hope to be proved wrong. We will find out very soon.
I've got an idea as to what I think might happen around early December this year, but I might offend TSE if I talk about it!
https://twitter.com/LouiseMensch/status/742391839605555200
There's one right here too and I've got access to it.
But you plebs are all about to die in the July nuclear war.
You can't go around telling the voters they're racist scum for 40 years then suddenly agree with them on immigration. They will smell a rat.
https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/742382667132481536
Trade deals with Africa are more controversial. The EU has been pushing tariff free access for much of Africa in return for dismantaling African tariffs too.
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/06/west-africa-europe-trade-agree-2014621155835409177.html
African farmers do well from these deals, the people who do worst are African Customs Officials who lose income from their sticky fingers. Like it or not (and I think Africa probably does need to protect indiginous industries still) the EU is pursuing a Free Trade Area with much of Africa.
FREEDOM!
Have you and Mrs G gone for LEAVE?
Talk like that last year might have saved him his seat.
Alistair - Independence will have the SNP dead "within a decade"
Sound familiar???
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Genius.
But worrying about Polish supermarkets? Don't think so.
I admire you politicians who spent decades canvassing the likes of my wife. The frustrations and fascinations must be endless
http://tinyurl.com/ztljar7
They have absolutely no idea.
Oh, it's up to the government, they say. Our 16-page manifesto which includes, inter alia, a commitment to regain control over our borders, should be ignored.
After all, as with every other election in the UK from time immemorial (not), we need to worry about what the losing side and a few wishful thinking PB Leavers want.
The telephone on which I have been speaking to my son is manufactured in South Korea, the glass of wine by my elbow comes from New Zealand. Neither countries are members of the EU both seem to be able to sell into this mystical single market.
ICM poll - % of voters "certain to vote"
Leave voters: 83%
Remain voters: 76%
#Brexit
then goes on to attack Clinton.
About three seconds.
Recessions are like forest fires. Horrible, but apparently necessary. I've suffered in a couple and sailed through a couple.
Cynical Labour stunt,but telling all the same.
2. Most of those standards are decided at an international level above the EU by organstions such as UNECE or Codex Alimentarius. These are organisations where we have no voice as we have ceded our voting rights to the EU.
3. We have bilateral agreements which match the EHIC with every other non EU country in Europe as well as major Commonwealth countries around the world. We even had the same deal with Russia and its satellites until the beginning of this year when it was suspended as part of our sanctions against them.
4. See 2 above. We do not have more clout. We just lose our voice.
Time for this Great British Public to clean the stinking stables
With that aim achieved there is nothing to keep them together bar the banal lust for power and that can only result in fracturing as irreconcilable groups attack each other.
I'm a independence supporting SNP voter but it is pretty clear the SNP is toast post Indy if it ever happened.
Both are marmite and would be terrible leaders in the 24-hour media glare. But they've both got big cojones, are brave enough to say the unsayable and know what they want. Signposts rather than weather-vanes.
All brave, radical politicians will make mistakes and enemies but I admire them for being willing to stick their necks out and make a difference.
Voters don't like them, but politics needs more of them.
My fear is that post-Brexit, these same people will find out that housing does not get cheaper, wages do not rise significantly, public services are not improved, and immigration is not tackled in any meaningful way. In fact, my fear is that things will actually get worse. My fear is that they have been sold a false prospectus by people that have no real interest in looking after the interests of ordinary working people, but have been using them and their hopes and fears to get the keys to power so that they can take the UK even further to the right than it is currently. In short, I fear that sooner rather than later the currently lionised members of the working class will find out that once again they have been conned.
She wants to take away our guns, and then admit the very people who want to slaughter us!
I heard the other day that my father in law (as died in the wool Labour as it seems you can get) doesn't vote any more.
If you hate your voters they will, at some point stop voting for you. Seems Labour have lost the plot.