Funny how all markets are inter-related. Gold pushed the key resistance at $1307 but couldn't break through getting to $1306 and turning back. Oil couldn't break the monthly bearish at $49. The Dow couldn't break convincingly through 18,000 (it will in time). And GBPUSD and all of the other major currency pairs couldn't break through the monthly bearish levels either. Its becoming an increasing tightrope that's going to break at some stage......but I think we have to have a false move - stocks selling off, gold selling off, final move into government bonds in order to get everyone facing the wrong way for the great move ahead from 2017 into early 2020.
German 10 year bunds are nearly on negative yield - the amount of paper now trading at negative yield I never thought I would see like now, its staggering.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. 2015 Tories back Leave 51% to 44% https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
Michael Gove may just be a genius.
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Genius.
He could stand in Scottish parliament if Dave sacks him out of vindictivness, he would get elected on the list I believe his family live in Aberdeen?. I don't think Dave will be a goner if it is Leave, most MP's still have loyalty for him, I suspect that is the reason Tory MP's are coming out for Remain. They would not have amajority without Dave.
The big fake will have to fall on his sword, even a blatant lying toad like him could not brass neck it if it is Leave. The tumbrils would be out pdq.
Vote Leave better prepare for "the vow II". Make no mistake the least Cameron et al will do to win this is lie. They will lie through their teeth to win this, his career with Sachs is on the line and so is his mates' Osborne.
"if we stay we will demand an end to free movement of people, but only if we stay the Germans have agreed to look at this..."
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
I was speaking to a Labour concillor from a SW London suburb today who said they had to cancel Saturday's Remain canvassing because they didn't have enough people. I said, didn't you want to go on your own, and she started saying it's a Tory election, nothing to do with Labour. Not a lot of enthusiasm, plus big danger on the doorstep of being on the wrong side of the people who elected you. Must be even harder in the North where UKIP is a genuine alternative.
The Remain campaign has been (literally) catastrophic on many levels, but by far their greatest blunder was underestimating Boris. For someone who actively campaigned for an amnesty for illegal immigrants to then run on the ticket 'Brexit = end to all immigration from anywhere' was an act of barnstorming audacity. I can't remember any politician in my lifetime having that amount of neck. It's worked like a charm though. Dave is destroyed and the premiership is almost within his grasp.
That is true. No one has the brass neck of Boris. People seem to love him for it too. Odd.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
Interesting. I would love to explore your views on this further.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
Overheard conversation in waiting room at work. Several retired old fellows moaning about the money going to the EU rather than NHS.
Overheard conversation between 3 nurses, one white British, one Indian and one Filipino (all naturalised so eligible to vote). All undecided, but leaning Leave over the subject of immigration.
I think both these memes are hollow, but they are working.
Why do you think remain are so incensed by the £350m figure?
It is a blatent lie and sounds like a lot of money. It is a meme (with immigration) that strikes a chord.
It's not a blatant lie. It's what we give to them then they give us a chunk back - but they tell us how to spend it. It is one valid way of expressing our contribution, along with others.
This was another major error by REMAIN. By continuously bitching about this figure they simply made everyone look at the figure and gasp in horror. £350m a week, £250m a week - these ALL seem like huge numbers to most voters.
It is a lie, but even after the rebate and net spend still a large amout of money. Truth no longer matters once the lie is established. In the post-modern world there is no absolute truth, just opinions that even when illinformed are held to be of equal value.
We are one of the wealthier countries in Europe and I am reasonably happy about subsidising the poorer areas of Europe to develop, just as a higher rate taxpayer I expect to subsidise poorer members of society. No one makes that argument though.
But the poorer countries in Europe are locked in sclerosis. Our membership doesn't appear to be doing them any good either.
The altruistic argument is noble, but just because an agreement is bad for us doesn't mean it's necessarily good for someone else - or at least not for the someone else that we might intend. Meanwhile, we're stopping impoverished African farmers from trading with us.
The poorer countries in Europe are certainly doing rather patchily, but also are the wealthier ones like Italy. Greece and Portugal are doing notably poorly, but Romania, Bulgaria and much of the A8 are growing reasonably well. The EU funds for infrastructure and modern agriculture are well spent.
Trade deals with Africa are more controversial. The EU has been pushing tariff free access for much of Africa in return for dismantaling African tariffs too.
African farmers do well from these deals, the people who do worst are African Customs Officials who lose income from their sticky fingers. Like it or not (and I think Africa probably does need to protect indiginous industries still) the EU is pursuing a Free Trade Area with much of Africa.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
Welcome, Mr Thrak. May I ask if you've decided on Remain or Leave yet?
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's the shift among Labour voters that's propelling Leave into the Lead. The anecdotes are correct.
The main problem here is that the leading "Remain" organisers simply did not understand Labour voters at all. Those barely struggling to make ends meet were NEVER, EVER, going to be persuaded by a parade of super-rich businessmen throwing tantrums and saying they'd go overseas if the result didn't go the way they wanted, nor were they were going to be swayed by doom-mongering about the economy when, as far as many of them were concerned, the economy as it applies to them is already in the pits anyway.
The "Leave" campaign look to be reaping the dividends of actually bothering to acknowledge the existence of Labour voters, and thinking about what arguments might sway them. "Get more money for your NHS" and "stop foreigners taking your jobs and driving down your wages" were always going to cut the mustard for them far more than the "Remain" arguments (no matter how disingenuous those arguments are coming from Tory ministers who have been overseeing record levels of immigration and record cuts to health).
Trump: Hillary's reluctance to name the enemy broadcasts weakness across the entire world.
I don't want to repeat my last post but Hillary really is one and a big one at that. An establishment toady, she could not run a bath, heaven help us it that is what is going to lead the free world.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
There is even a huge LEAVE sign on my bedroom door and my wife knows nothing about the EU.
Are you sure the word NOW doesn't also appear underneath?
she'll miss me when I'm gone!
Funnily enough, it was our 11th anniversary on May 28th and we both woke up on the Saturday morning completely unaware. Then she spotted on Facebook via one of those '3 years ago today' updates that she'd wished me Happy Anniversary three years back... we had a giggle about it.
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Do you really think that's what it's like in the UK now? As someone who has scarpered I find it curious that you feel you can talk for the people who actually live here.
Have you seen east London recently?
I might have added that in certain metropolitan areas there is certainly a broad range of cultures.
But worrying about Polish supermarkets? Don't think so.
People are pissed off, there is no denying that. They - rightly - feel they have been screwed over. They were told we are all in this together and it turns out that is not true. Living standards have stagnated, public services have been cut, housing is increasingly unavailable, they hear and see more foreigners on their streets. Whatever the complex reality, you can't blame a single working person for linking the crap they are going through to immigration and the EU - especially given the fact that those leading the government have been telling them thee is a direct link for the last eight or nine years. It is a totally understandable reaction and one that the entire elite - Leave and Remain, Labour and Tory (and LibDem) - are responsible for.
My fear is that post-Brexit, these same people will find out that housing does not get cheaper, wages do not rise significantly, public services are not improved, and immigration is not tackled in any meaningful way. In fact, my fear is that things will actually get worse. My fear is that they have been sold a false prospectus by people that have no real interest in looking after the interests of ordinary working people, but have been using them and their hopes and fears to get the keys to power so that they can take the UK even further to the right than it is currently. In short, I fear that sooner rather than later the currently lionised members of the working class will find out that once again they have been conned.
I'dexpect to see strong growth on the hard right, as people seek out new non-eu scapegoats, now that the pattern established on this campaign, combined with the traditional left being strengthened. As well as a collapse in the constituency for tory economic "centre" after all the econonic after-effects .
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's the shift among Labour voters that's propelling Leave into the Lead. The anecdotes are correct.
Indeed but Tory voters are more likely to turn out, Cameron needs to get as close to 50% of Tories backing Remain as possible
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
Interesting. I would love to explore your views on this further.
I prefer independence but a real federal solution would almost certainly kill that. UK is being ruined by being London Centric to the exclusion of all others.
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Labour have utterly f***ed this up, as has Cameron and Osborne.
Time for this Great British Public to clean the stinking stables
The stench is even stronger than you think after what I've seen presented to me on Saturday.
Which was what? (assuming it doesn't involve a conspiracy theory)
I'm under instructions from TSE not to talk about it. But anybody that's followed my posts over the past couple of months on here will know what its about.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
We had recessions when we were in the EU. I don't see a difference myself. The global crash in 2008 was in the EU too.
Hmm, I clearly didn't write that as clearly as I hoped. Let me try again. There's a recession due. There's usually some event that kicks them off. Brexit is a prime candidate for this time round.
Recessions are like forest fires. Horrible, but apparently necessary. I've suffered in a couple and sailed through a couple.
You've sailed through a forest fire?
I give up . I've clearly lost the ability to communicate lol.
Sorry! Deliberately going for the wrong end of the stick for comic effect
The Remain campaign has been (literally) catastrophic on many levels, but by far their greatest blunder was underestimating Boris. For someone who actively campaigned for an amnesty for illegal immigrants to then run on the ticket 'Brexit = end to all immigration from anywhere' was an act of barnstorming audacity. I can't remember any politician in my lifetime having that amount of neck. It's worked like a charm though. Dave is destroyed and the premiership is almost within his grasp.
He also used to support Turkey becoming an EU member state as soon as possible, didn't he? Fills you with confidence that he will do a great Brexit negotiating job for us.
The main problem here is that the leading "Remain" organisers simply did not understand Labour voters at all. Those barely struggling to make ends meet were NEVER, EVER, going to be persuaded by a parade of super-rich businessmen throwing tantrums and saying they'd go overseas if the result didn't go the way they wanted, nor were they were going to be swayed by doom-mongering about the economy when, as far as many of them were concerned, the economy as it applies to them is already in the pits anyway.
The "Leave" campaign look to be reaping the dividends of actually bothering to acknowledge the existence of Labour voters, and thinking about what arguments might sway them. "Get more money for your NHS" and "stop foreigners taking your jobs and driving down your wages" were always going to cut the mustard for them far more than the "Remain" arguments (no matter how disingenuous those arguments are coming from Tory ministers who have been overseeing record levels of immigration and record cuts to health).
That Tories can galvanise Labour voters here, shows how bad the Remain Labour argument is. It's bizarre.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
The SNP figures are of great interest. I did hope (and it might well be true) that many of those who desire "independence" realise that there's not much point being "independent" (that is, not being part of the UK) if you then become part (in time) of a European superstate.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
I bet that's 68% of quite a small number, and I'd suggest that's actually quite a small percentage given that the EU is nearby relative to the US, Australia etc.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
Michael Gove may just be a genius.
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Genius.
He could stand in Scottish parliament if Dave sacks him out of vindictivness, he would get elected on the list I believe his family live in Aberdeen?. I don't think Dave will be a goner if it is Leave, most MP's still have loyalty for him, I suspect that is the reason Tory MP's are coming out for Remain. They would not have amajority without Dave.
Dave doesn't believe in Brexit, he won't want to oversee it. He won't need the abuse from Leavers. If it's Brexit, he'll be gone.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
Michael Gove may just be a genius.
By promising Scotland devolved powers over fisheries, agriculture and a portion of immigration control for Holyrood in the event of a Brexit he may have offered a better deal to nationalists than even Cameron could. He could even up it further by promising Scottish representation in all UK trade talks.
Meanwhile the economics would favour a continued federal union with the pound sterling.
Vote Leave better prepare for "the vow II". Make no mistake the least Cameron et al will do to win this is lie. They will lie through their teeth to win this, his career with Sachs is on the line and so is his mates' Osborne.
"if we stay we will demand an end to free movement of people, but only if we stay the Germans have agreed to look at this..."
The difference is that the UK government has the power to change the Scottish devolution settlement - it has NO (absolutely NONE) power to change our membership of the EU.
So it cannot make a "vow". Or if they do, they will look stupid.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
front bottom alert
I was mocking the attitudes you oppose...
I was just having fun, apologies if it offended. A proper federal UK would not be a bad thing.
Interesting. I would love to explore your views on this further.
I prefer independence but a real federal solution would almost certainly kill that. UK is being ruined by being London Centric to the exclusion of all others.
Fair enough. What would you like to (realistically) see?
Do you think Gove's offer will have any traction with SNP'ers who might consider Brexit, btw?
SMILE at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget. For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet. There is many a fat farmer that drinks less cheerfully, There is many a free French peasant who is richer and sadder than we. There are no folk in the whole world so helpless or so wise. There is hunger in our bellies, there is laughter in our eyes; You laugh at us and love us, both mugs and eyes are wet: Only you do not know us. For we have not spoken yet. . . . We hear men speaking for us of new laws strong and sweet, Yet is there no man speaketh as we speak in the street. It may be we shall rise the last as Frenchmen rose the first, Our wrath come after Russia's wrath and our wrath be the worst. It may be we are meant to mark with our riot and our rest God's scorn for all men governing. It may be beer is best. But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet. Smile at us, pay us, pass us. But do not quite forget.
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. 2015 Tories back Leave 51% to 44% https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
That's interesting, particularly the SNP numbers. If true Scotland could be close.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
The thing that is most likely to rescue his legacy - or make it less abysmal - is what happens post-Brexit. If Boris tanks, then that will make Dave look a whole lot better.
You keep assuming Boris will become PM. Why? Sometimes I think you're just a bit too pessimistic. Plenty of the great and the good will try to stop him.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
Ladbrokes 10/1
Hmm, thanks. That's very tempting.
2017 too at similar rates.
Assuming Leave wins: by the time the Tories have elected a new leader and we have had a reshuffle there will be little time for an autumn election. May 2017 is more realistic.
If Remain wins, Cameron hangs on until defenestrated, May 2017 likely for a GE too.
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's the shift among Labour voters that's propelling Leave into the Lead. The anecdotes are correct.
Indeed but Tory voters are more likely to turn out, Cameron needs to get as close to 50% of Tories backing Remain as possible
Anything could happen but a Con leadership election is going to take getting on for 3 months - if Cameron resigns immediately they aren't going to do a leadership result in August when everyone is on holiday.
So for a GE in 2016 it requires a new Con leader to be elected in Sept and for the new PM to then attempt to call a GE literally immediately.
Then there is the issue of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - if Lab says "No" then Lab could get the chance of forming a government.
Even if Lab says "Yes" bear in mind Parliament won't be sitting for the 3 weeks of the Party Conferences in late Sept / early Oct and votes are going to be needed in Parliament to dissolve it.
So there needs to be pretty much a perfect run logistically to actually get to a GE in 2016.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
I bet that's 68% of quite a small number, and I'd suggest that's actually quite a small percentage given that the EU is nearby relative to the US, Australia etc.
But why would we ban tourists? What the actual f....? What is wrong with Osborne?
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
The thing that is most likely to rescue his legacy - or make it less abysmal - is what happens post-Brexit. If Boris tanks, then that will make Dave look a whole lot better.
You keep assuming Boris will become PM. Why? Sometimes I think you're just a bit too pessimistic. Plenty of the great and the good will try to stop him.
The election will be Boris vs a safe pair oF Hands (i.e. May or maybe Hammond) imo.
The main problem here is that the leading "Remain" organisers simply did not understand Labour voters at all. Those barely struggling to make ends meet were NEVER, EVER, going to be persuaded by a parade of super-rich businessmen throwing tantrums and saying they'd go overseas if the result didn't go the way they wanted, nor were they were going to be swayed by doom-mongering about the economy when, as far as many of them were concerned, the economy as it applies to them is already in the pits anyway.
The "Leave" campaign look to be reaping the dividends of actually bothering to acknowledge the existence of Labour voters, and thinking about what arguments might sway them. "Get more money for your NHS" and "stop foreigners taking your jobs and driving down your wages" were always going to cut the mustard for them far more than the "Remain" arguments (no matter how disingenuous those arguments are coming from Tory ministers who have been overseeing record levels of immigration and record cuts to health).
Yep, the Tory Leavers have enthusiastically supported a range of policies that have caused real hardship to working people. But Labour's mistake was to allow this to be seen solely as a Tory civil war. In such a fight, the side standing against the government is likely to win.
…to kill, by the way, the homosexual – this is also our religion. The fiqh rulings say that the homosexual be killed, OK? (inaudible comment from audience) I don’t know about this one, I’ve heard this but I haven’t studied this in detail but I know that his punishment is death. This is all a part of our religion. This doesn’t mean we go and do this in America but I’m saying if we had an Islamic state we would do this.” (p. 18)
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
This thread demonstrates just how little Remainers understand this.
"I will suspend entry from parts of the world with a history of terrorism against the US, Europe or our allies..."
Sounds good to me.
How far back does "history" go? Up to the 1990s there was lots of support for IRA terrorism in the USA.
It's almost exactly 20 years since the IRA Manchester bombing in 1996 that devastated the city centre. With one and a half tons of high explosive, it was the most powerful bomb ever detonated during peacetime in mainland UK. I was at home about 2 miles from the blast and felt the pressure wave ("What the f*** was that?") when it exploded.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
I bet that's 68% of quite a small number, and I'd suggest that's actually quite a small percentage given that the EU is nearby relative to the US, Australia etc.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
Eh? This guy was born in New York.
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."
Fascinating Toynbee article. Full of pessimism "Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”" Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain. But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
Eh? This guy was born in New York.
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
This thread demonstrates just how little Remainers understand this.
I understood it enough to predict a Leave win from the very start and to make a tasty sum from it. I also get that the feelings of betrayal post-Brexit will be hugely difficult for Boris & Co to rein in.
RE: Polyanna "Warn these Labour people what a Johnson/Gove government would do and they don’t care. Warn about the loss of workers’ rights and they don’t listen – "
So Pollyanna and the Labour HQ have turned into a "vote REMAIN to save Dave" campaign?
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
Indeed, I'm minded of the PBI following the younger sons over the parapet of the trenches at the moment.
"I hear the Tory and Labour moderates newly mingling in the Remain offices rather get on."
The Blairites and Cameroons could form their own party, they have more in common with each other than Corbynistas and UKIP and the Brexiteers
I'm all for it. All these 'election winners' who've conquered the 'centre ground' of politics and made their too-ghastly parties electable should simply leave those parties and form a party of all the talents, which with that much centrism and electability, would surely rule forever.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
And how many is that 68% in absolute terms George? And compared to UK visitors in absolute terms? Oh and stop the insinuation that 130k will be signing on the rock n roll pronto if we leave. Christ alive they really do think we're thick don't they?
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come off it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
This has been brewing since the end of national service when no more were young men from all different classes thrown together and live with each other through thick and thin for two years.
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
Whoever is writing such nonsense for Remain is doing more harm than good. The public aren't being fooled to anything like the extent Cameron was banking on.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Well I would query the 6 word summary at the end, but otherwise I would agree.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
I suspect that most Welsh Tourism is from England rather than international.
Concievably if the pound collapses to parity with the Euro, Britain becomes cheaper for European tourists, while Brits find domestic holidays better than the pricier EU.
I suspect our net balance of trade in tourism may improve with Brexit.
I think, and have already said, there is Brexit-Trump connection.
Trump when he comes, may well say "Just do it!"
And then when he goes back, says "Look at the Brits. They've had enough... of terrorism, Islamization, unchecked immigration... Are we going to continue to be the stupid people?"
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
The stuff from Osborne is crazy - why Europeans couldn't come to visit Wales is beyond me.
Because only if we leave we'll garnish them all with lava bread and eat them alive out of coracles whilst reciting Max Boyce Live at Treorchy. That's why.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.
Its the non working classes that have been dumped on.
My ipad keeps crashing trying to reply to a post. Is that just me or a common fault? Anyway, for platosays, I'm now for remain, I'm a centrist and leave is attracting the extremes too much. What confirms it is that section of the WWC who I was glad to get away from when younger wanting out. I'm sure many are fine but a lot were not nice people, any sign of difference and you were in trouble. We've also got low inflation, low unemploymemt and low interest rates, I've seen what happens to the less well off when one or more of those disappear..
Comments
German 10 year bunds are nearly on negative yield - the amount of paper now trading at negative yield I never thought I would see like now, its staggering.
Urgh.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
"if we stay we will demand an end to free movement of people, but only if we stay the Germans have agreed to look at this..."
Brace yourselves.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=brace+yourselves&client=firefox-b-ab&tbm=isch&imgil=NOeUA69DyDrGnM%3A%3BqywgBsHFh7DMXM%3Bhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.youtube.com%252Fwatch%253Fv%25253DFSwM0-JAw5w&source=iu&pf=m&fir=NOeUA69DyDrGnM%3A%2CqywgBsHFh7DMXM%2C_&usg=__lmoOE5rwrq9MtMba6QeA9Cti-TA=&biw=1408&bih=672&ved=0ahUKEwjm8tWl1aXNAhXMDsAKHS1rBxwQyjcIKQ&ei=7v9eV-bDIMydgAat1p3gAQ#imgdii=NOeUA69DyDrGnM:;NOeUA69DyDrGnM:;z4zczYQXte4juM:&imgrc=NOeUA69DyDrGnM:
http://www.euractiv.com/section/development-policy/news/eu-africa-free-trade-agreement-destroys-development-policy-says-merkel-advisor/
http://capx.co/how-the-eu-starves-africa-into-submission/
http://www.antillean.org/eu-epa-disadvantages-212/
The "Leave" campaign look to be reaping the dividends of actually bothering to acknowledge the existence of Labour voters, and thinking about what arguments might sway them. "Get more money for your NHS" and "stop foreigners taking your jobs and driving down your wages" were always going to cut the mustard for them far more than the "Remain" arguments (no matter how disingenuous those arguments are coming from Tory ministers who have been overseeing record levels of immigration and record cuts to health).
An establishment toady, she could not run a bath, heaven help us it that is what is going to lead the free world.
Sadly we are heading towards the precipice - will we have the common sense to stop before the edge? Time will tell as ever but I am not that hopeful.
At least I will make a little money from the betting markets in the short term before losing a hell of a lot more from the economic disaster to come.
Funnily enough, it was our 11th anniversary on May 28th and we both woke up on the Saturday morning completely unaware. Then she spotted on Facebook via one of those '3 years ago today' updates that she'd wished me Happy Anniversary three years back... we had a giggle about it.
George Osborne @George_Osborne
Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
Tories 34%
Labour 33%
UKIP 14%
LDs 9%
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
So it cannot make a "vow". Or if they do, they will look stupid.
Do you think Gove's offer will have any traction with SNP'ers who might consider Brexit, btw?
SMILE at us, pay us, pass us; but do not quite forget.
For we are the people of England, that never have spoken yet.
There is many a fat farmer that drinks less cheerfully,
There is many a free French peasant who is richer and sadder than we.
There are no folk in the whole world so helpless or so wise.
There is hunger in our bellies, there is laughter in our eyes;
You laugh at us and love us, both mugs and eyes are wet:
Only you do not know us. For we have not spoken yet.
. . .
We hear men speaking for us of new laws strong and sweet,
Yet is there no man speaketh as we speak in the street.
It may be we shall rise the last as Frenchmen rose the first,
Our wrath come after Russia's wrath and our wrath be the worst.
It may be we are meant to mark with our riot and our rest
God's scorn for all men governing. It may be beer is best.
But we are the people of England; and we have not spoken yet.
Smile at us, pay us, pass us. But do not quite forget.
G. K. Chesterton
Assuming Leave wins: by the time the Tories have elected a new leader and we have had a reshuffle there will be little time for an autumn election. May 2017 is more realistic.
If Remain wins, Cameron hangs on until defenestrated, May 2017 likely for a GE too.
So for a GE in 2016 it requires a new Con leader to be elected in Sept and for the new PM to then attempt to call a GE literally immediately.
Then there is the issue of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act - if Lab says "No" then Lab could get the chance of forming a government.
Even if Lab says "Yes" bear in mind Parliament won't be sitting for the 3 weeks of the Party Conferences in late Sept / early Oct and votes are going to be needed in Parliament to dissolve it.
So there needs to be pretty much a perfect run logistically to actually get to a GE in 2016.
Old unweighted;
AB 40%
C1 22%
C2 15%
DE 22%
New unweighted;
AB 45%
C1 26%
C2 13%
DE 17%
They have had to massively re-weight to get anything close to representative which explains the wacky unweighted party VI.
Seems the ABs are getting keener to tell us how awful we all are.
Although it is Twitter.
http://hurryupharry.org/2016/06/12/a-dossier-on-the-almaghrib-institute/
…to kill, by the way, the homosexual – this is also our religion. The fiqh rulings say that the homosexual be killed, OK? (inaudible comment from audience) I don’t know about this one, I’ve heard this but I haven’t studied this in detail but I know that his punishment is death. This is all a part of our religion. This doesn’t mean we go and do this in America but I’m saying if we had an Islamic state we would do this.” (p. 18)
I'm very engaged and now worn out.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
dear or dear. An early night tonight, and goodnight to everyone - the thrust of the post I stand by.
How will HRC respond to this?
"Warn these Labour people what a Johnson/Gove government would do and they don’t care. Warn about the loss of workers’ rights and they don’t listen – "
So Pollyanna and the Labour HQ have turned into a "vote REMAIN to save Dave" campaign?
Not an easy sell.
We're supposed to be bigots.
This has been brewing since the end of national service when no more were young men from all different classes thrown together and live with each other through thick and thin for two years.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/742269160542081024
Concievably if the pound collapses to parity with the Euro, Britain becomes cheaper for European tourists, while Brits find domestic holidays better than the pricier EU.
I suspect our net balance of trade in tourism may improve with Brexit.
Osborne is an idiot.
Trump when he comes, may well say "Just do it!"
And then when he goes back, says "Look at the Brits. They've had enough... of terrorism, Islamization, unchecked immigration... Are we going to continue to be the stupid people?"