I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other out https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
These are all exceptions though, I am not saying we are going to have a civil war or a revolution but the best indicator of how someone will vote in the referendum now is not voting intention (outside UKIP and the LDs) or their age but their social class
Trouble is that certainty to vote is already factored in to those ICM calculations.
For example, on 10/10, ABs are 83%, C1s 73%, C2s 72%, DEs 70%
There isn't much higher that ABs can go, but there is for the rest.
True but then you could say the same for younger voters too
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.
I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.
I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
Yes, but just one year ago those same angry people voted for bland party automatons. I don't say it is just the referendum, but as a release for angry people to manifest it seems highly significant.
Leftoid bint reporter on Sky accusing Trump of 'exploiting' the outrage.
Have you seen a woman against Trump yet that you haven't used a gendered insult about? Last time, it was Clinton as a witch.
Diddums.
The reporter on Sky is a biased, brainwashed moron. Trump may be wrong, extreme, insincere, and a host of other things, but he is running for the highest office in the land, and those are questions for the American people to decide, after hearing what he has to say. After an outrage like yesterday's, what exactly is he supposed to talk about? The weather?
Why exactly is a British 'reporter' - a guest in the USA - declaiming that this man is 'exploiting' the tragedy?
She's obviously not a reporter at all. Just a London, leftist multiculturist who can't conceive there is anyone in the world who might hold a different opinion, and it's her job to stick the knife in. If anyone was 'exploiting' the tragedy it was her, hijacking it to throw in her unwanted, pointless 2c, with gross unprofessionalism...
Yeah but has he read out "The snake" yet ?
He conveyed the same message in a more eloquent and specific manner...
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".
I feel like there could be a rule that whenever someone starts talking about how issue x shows that a political realignment is coming, they are talking nonsense. It seems to wildly underestimate just how well tribal loyalty persists, even when it makes no sense. And I say that as a big fan of Ganesh's writing, he is usually pretty persuasive even when I disagree with him.
In my experience, when someone starts talking hopefully about a "political realignment" it means "their" side is probably going to take a beating, and they are trying, subconsciously, to salvage some emotional consolation from the expected wreckage.
I remember Southam spouting the exact same stuff when he was predicting a YES win in Sindyref.
No, my great realignment hope was 2010. But you're probably right about what I was subconciously thinking. By Sindy hope was a constitutional convention. Probably the same impulse. I'd still like to see both, though.
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".
I feel like there could be a rule that whenever someone starts talking about how issue x shows that a political realignment is coming, they are talking nonsense. It seems to wildly underestimate just how well tribal loyalty persists, even when it makes no sense. And I say that as a big fan of Ganesh's writing, he is usually pretty persuasive even when I disagree with him.
In my experience, when someone starts talking hopefully about a "political realignment" it means "their" side is probably going to take a beating, and they are trying, subconsciously, to salvage some emotional consolation from the expected wreckage.
I remember Southam spouting the exact same stuff when he was predicting a YES win in Sindyref.
No, my great realignment hope was 2010. But you're probably right about what I was subconciously thinking. By Sindy hope was a constitutional convention. Probably the same impulse. I'd still like to see both, though.
you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Bransonwould now be ABs, both of course back Remain
A's are tiny and electorally irrelevant. And no, a huge chunk of entrepeneurs are classed as own-account workers so C2. B's are the nomenclature, and the polling reflects that.
Well an 'entrepreneur' who earns £20,000 a year is basically C2 anyway isn't he, he is hardly in Branson or Sugar's league who are both billionaires
yes he is, and that's my point. NRS social grade is an s.h.1.t tool to try and characterise the mood of the nation by demography. All serious demographers stopped using it in about 1995. But polling continues because it is easy and familiar. It is a common rant from professional analysts that ABC1 is absolute bollox as a way of segmenting views, but polling companies repeatedly do it... cr4p knows why.
you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Branson would now be ABs, both of course back Remain
Blairf's point is very valid.
ABC1 is stuffed to the gills with public sector workers.
C2DE will have virtually none.
C2DE are exposed through work to competition from the EU, whether by competing labour here or by the shifting of capital and investment to abroad.
The public sector have been exempted that competition, so far.
If the EU offered a grant to HMRC call centres or the DVLA office to relocate to eastern Europe, as they have down with private industry, then the ABC1s would shift to leave in greater numbers.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
Why should that be scary? Every election from 1935 till recently broke down on class lines.
It's not so much class, though, as values. Middle class and wealthy voters in London will go massively remain. But middl class and wealthy voters in Bedfordshire will support Leave.
You could equally say working class and poor voters in Bedfordshire will go massively Leave, working class and poor voters in London will support Remain, the divide is still there (and it is perfectly possible that middle class Tories in Bedfordshire may narrowly vote Remain and working class Labour voters in London may narrowly vote Leave)
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.
As Marquee Mark has pointed out Remain has just screwed up its estmates on what the Labour vote will do. let's face it Stuart Rose said wages would rise, the housing anyone can work out for themselves and the public spending is spin as there is no money.
But this is not some great Tory persuasion imo, it's simply the base numbers were wrong from the start.
I doubt anyone has heard of Stuart Rose. But generally, I agree: life is tough, Leave is a vote for change.
I'm still expecting Remain to win, but I'm enjoying the hope that they might not. And maybe the struggle to get over the line will be useful in itself, if the vote is close enough.
Are they really going to dig out firms like CRAPITA and G4S? Easy for Leave to counter. "Vote Remain" says company who earn £Xbn from the taxpayer each year,
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
It comes down to the death of organised labour, and in the case of my Union it's utter uselessness - I really don't know why I pay a sub these days.
imo Unions will only become relevant again when they ditch the political connections and put their members welfare first and foremost
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
Why should that be scary? Every election from 1935 till recently broke down on class lines.
It's not so much class, though, as values. Middle class and wealthy voters in London will go massively remain. But middl class and wealthy voters in Bedfordshire will support Leave.
Class I can cope with - it is when it starts breaking down by race or religion that it gets really scary.
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.
I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
Maverick politicians currently have the upper hand over the managerialists.
Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.
The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.
It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.
I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Branson would now be ABs, both of course back Remain
Blairf's point is very valid.
ABC1 is stuffed to the gills with public sector workers.
C2DE will have virtually none.
C2DE are exposed through work to competition from the EU, whether by competing labour here or by the shifting of capital and investment to abroad.
The public sector have been exempted that competition, so far.
If the EU offered a grant to HMRC call centres or the DVLA office to relocate to eastern Europe, as they have down with private industry, then the ABC1s would shift to leave in greater numbers.
C2DEs will have plenty of public sector workers from firemen to dinner ladies actually. ABC1 includes doctors, lawyers, stockbrokers, managers and executives
you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Bransonwould now be ABs, both of course back Remain
A's are tiny and electorally irrelevant. And no, a huge chunk of entrepeneurs are classed as own-account workers so C2. B's are the nomenclature, and the polling reflects that.
Well an 'entrepreneur' who earns £20,000 a year is basically C2 anyway isn't he, he is hardly in Branson or Sugar's league who are both billionaires
yes he is, and that's my point. NRS social grade is an s.h.1.t tool to try and characterise the mood of the nation by demography. All serious demographers stopped using it in about 1995. But polling continues because it is easy and familiar. It is a common rant from professional analysts that ABC1 is absolute bollox as a way of segmenting views, but polling companies repeatedly do it... cr4p knows why.
The currency markets seem to be doing a great job of predicting Brexit opinion polls. They must be impossible for pollsters to secure - they don't normally have a target this big painted on their backs.
If you bet on this market (or on the GBP markets), you should consider that the person you're betting against may well have more information than you.
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.
I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
Maverick politicians currently have the upper hand over the managerialists.
Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.
The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.
It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.
I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
John Cleese? He's a lifelong Lib Dem (and all its previous incarnations). What the hell did he think he was supporting?
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
Why should that be scary? Every election from 1935 till recently broke down on class lines.
It's not so much class, though, as values. Middle class and wealthy voters in London will go massively remain. But middl class and wealthy voters in Bedfordshire will support Leave.
Class I can cope with - it is when it starts breaking down by race or religion that it gets really scary.
LEAVE now consistently in the lead with phone pollsters.
ORB have been the best for REMAIN.
I reckon LEAVE are now ahead 3-5 across the country - and they have the Momentum - and therefore the odds against LEAVE winning are now nuts. You can still get 9/5
I agree the odds should shift more to Leave but Mori and Comres have tended to be best for Remain and the ORB online was what gave Leave its 10% lead
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.
I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
Maverick politicians currently have the upper hand over the managerialists.
Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.
The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.
It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.
I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
John Cleese? He's a lifelong Lib Dem (and all its previous incarnations). What the hell did he think he was supporting?
IndyRef had one poll which showed Yes winning, only one, to back up the anecdotal data that seemed to indicate they were doing well, and in the end No one pretty comfortably. Leave have many many polls showing them winning, backed up by anecdotal data, and even if things swing back by the same amount Remain at best squeak a win.
It surely will now be either very tight Remain or an easy Leave win.
LEAVE now consistently in the lead with phone pollsters.
ORB have been the best for REMAIN.
I reckon LEAVE are now ahead 3-5 across the country - and they have the Momentum - and therefore the odds against LEAVE winning are now nuts. You can still get 9/5
There still seem to be a lot of people who either a) cannot believe it is happening or b) can forecast the result better than we can -or why is Leave still 2.74 on Betfair - with a lot willing to back Remain at tighter odds.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.
As Marquee Mark has pointed out Remain has just screwed up its estmates on what the Labour vote will do. let's face it Stuart Rose said wages would rise, the housing anyone can work out for themselves and the public spending is spin as there is no money.
But this is not some great Tory persuasion imo, it's simply the base numbers were wrong from the start.
I doubt anyone has heard of Stuart Rose. But generally, I agree: life is tough, Leave is a vote for change.
He has quit the Remain campaign btw.
Still listed on wikipedia as its Chair but BSIE no longer list who is on their Board AFAIK.
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.
I don't think it is just the referendum, nor do I think it's only in the UK that the disenchantment is felt. There are a lot of increasingly angry people across the western world.
Maverick politicians currently have the upper hand over the managerialists.
Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.
The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.
It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.
I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
John Cleese? He's a lifelong Lib Dem (and all its previous incarnations). What the hell did he think he was supporting?
There is no point trying to engage with the Brexiters, here, on the nuances. I tried yesterday on the economy, but got no reply.
There will be an economic shock once we vote for Brexit, succeeded by years of uncertainty, political and economic. Quite what the end game will be is difficult to predict.
Since I've got quite a few assets in Europe I'm alright Jack........ however this vote turns out. But there are UK people on this site who have UK mortgages, savings, private pensions, plans for the future, who have just bought houses, who cannot remember high inflation or stagflation...well they'll going to see what a prolonged economic shock can do to their prospects, and it ain't pretty.
Comments
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/742455482812649472
ABC1 is stuffed to the gills with public sector workers.
C2DE will have virtually none.
C2DE are exposed through work to competition from the EU, whether by competing labour here or by the shifting of capital and investment to abroad.
The public sector have been exempted that competition, so far.
If the EU offered a grant to HMRC call centres or the DVLA office to relocate to eastern Europe, as they have down with private industry, then the ABC1s would shift to leave in greater numbers.
Fellaini 90 mins
Incredible.
If we remain we'll have
More money
A very strong economy.
If we leave we'll have
Cheaper houses.
More greenbelt.
I'm still expecting Remain to win, but I'm enjoying the hope that they might not. And maybe the struggle to get over the line will be useful in itself, if the vote is close enough.
Night, all.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/742460485279358976
Easy for Leave to counter.
"Vote Remain" says company who earn £Xbn from the taxpayer each year,
Under Labour the on-message, bland, uninspiring politician reigned supreme, tightly controlled by the party line. It's been slightly less controlled under Cameron, but it's still there, and I suspect many voters are fed up of it.
The Brexit camp is full of mavericks and free thinkers; politicians willing to speak their minds like Gove, Boris and Stuart. They even have maverick celebrities like John Cleese and Beefy Botham on side.
It's the same spirit of adventure and desire for something different that saw Corbyn, Trump and Boat McEffing Boatface win elections.
I'm not saying this is good, bad or indifferent.... I'm just saying. These are fertile times for unexpected winners.
Why couldn't they have announced it was coming out at 10.00 and then delayed it to 12.00 - have they no style.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/06/08/general-election-2015-how-britain-really-voted/
If you bet on this market (or on the GBP markets), you should consider that the person you're betting against may well have more information than you.
Right, signing off for the night now.
Irrelevant and unelectable personified!!
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/742462098563825668
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/742462436486348800
It surely will now be either very tight Remain or an easy Leave win.
INSANE
See for example:
https://twitter.com/JohnCleese/status/741758545687924736
There is no point trying to engage with the Brexiters, here, on the nuances. I tried yesterday on the economy, but got no reply.
There will be an economic shock once we vote for Brexit, succeeded by years of uncertainty, political and economic. Quite what the end game will be is difficult to predict.
Since I've got quite a few assets in Europe I'm alright Jack........ however this vote turns out. But there are UK people on this site who have UK mortgages, savings, private pensions, plans for the future, who have just bought houses, who cannot remember high inflation or stagflation...well they'll going to see what a prolonged economic shock can do to their prospects, and it ain't pretty.