My ipad keeps crashing trying to reply to a post. Is that just me or a common fault? Anyway, for platosays, I'm now for remain, I'm a centrist and leave is attracting the extremes too much. What confirms it is that section of the WWC who I was glad to get away from when younger wanting out. I'm sure many are fine but a lot were not nice people, any sign of difference and you were in trouble. We've also got low inflation, low unemploymemt and low interest rates, I've seen what happens to the less well off when one or more of those disappear..
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
I think Remainers can be pretty tribal in their own way. My facebook newsfeed is full of arguments for Remain which tend to amount to how unsophisticated, provincial and absolutely ghastly Leavers are, accompanied by unflattering pictures of Nigel Farage, and how generally morally superior and generally better Remainers are. It's not all that different in tone from the mutually antagonistic posts which get put up arguing the merits of the supporters of Manchesters City and United. Remain appeals to base instincts of identity every bit as much as Leave does.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
Labour rights?
If you think Labour rights are going to get people engaged, you will never understand the grievances of the working people of this country.
My ipad keeps crashing trying to reply to a post. Is that just me or a common fault? Anyway, for platosays, I'm now for remain, I'm a centrist and leave is attracting the extremes too much. What confirms it is that section of the WWC who I was glad to get away from when younger wanting out. I'm sure many are fine but a lot were not nice people, any sign of difference and you were in trouble. We've also got low inflation, low unemploymemt and low interest rates, I've seen what happens to the less well off when one or more of those disappear..
Never mind the ideas, look how ghastly the people are!
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The anecdotes are very encouraging but why are they not being reflected in the polls. I would be expecting consistent 10% leads for Leave.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Of course I disagree with that entirely. Leavers are the internationalists. We just see international as including the other 93% of the world's population who don't live in Europe. Remainers seem to think that the 7% who live in Europe are the only foreigners who matter.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
If I were them I would also go hard on there being an emergency budget - ie cuts and tax rises.
I think polls suggest most people don't think Remain or Leave will affect them financially. Remain needs to try to change that perception.
Whether anyone will believe it - who knows? But I think it probably provides the best scope for Remain to pick up votes.
Can anyone point me to the odds on a General Election in 2016? It's looking increasingly likely as far as I can see, moreso with a leave vote but also with parties splitting and reforming around remain lines if remain prevails. The tectonic plates are shifting very quickly now
Ladbrokes 10/1
Hmm, thanks. That's very tempting.
2017 too at similar rates.
Assuming Leave wins: by the time the Tories have elected a new leader and we have had a reshuffle there will be little time for an autumn election. May 2017 is more realistic.
If Remain wins, Cameron hangs on until defenestrated, May 2017 likely for a GE too.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
I bet that's 68% of quite a small number, and I'd suggest that's actually quite a small percentage given that the EU is nearby relative to the US, Australia etc.
But why would we ban tourists? What the actual f....? What is wrong with Osborne?
Tbh after the £ crashes another 10-15% we'll be a cheap option. Won't do me any favours for my month in Oz at Xmas though.
The difference is that the UK government has the power to change the Scottish devolution settlement - it has NO (absolutely NONE) power to change our membership of the EU.
So it cannot make a "vow". Or if they do, they will look stupid.
Not having the power to stop immigration won't stop them from promising, one the liberal elite care about the E.U more than thier own countries and won't go down without a fight. They will do ANYTHING to win and Vote Leave should be countering this now befor the vow comes, because it IS coming make no mistake.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
I suspect that most Welsh Tourism is from England rather than international.
Concievably if the pound collapses to parity with the Euro, Britain becomes cheaper for European tourists, while Brits find domestic holidays better than the pricier EU.
I suspect our net balance of trade in tourism may improve with Brexit.
Osborne is an idiot.
If I was a floating voter, Gove/Boris could secure my vote for Leave just by promising his dismissal.
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The anecdotes are very encouraging but why are they not being reflected in the polls. I would be expecting consistent 10% leads for Leave.
Theyve moved sharply in leaves direction.
It dosent follow that their starting point with remain ahead was actually correct
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
This thread demonstrates just how little Remainers understand this.
I understood it enough to predict a Leave win from the very start and to make a tasty sum from it. I also get that the feelings of betrayal post-Brexit will be hugely difficult for Boris & Co to rein in.
I was one of the few to post a forecast for LEAVE in the PB competition, therefore you look to be right on the referendum vote. But the post-Brexit "betrayal" only happens if the HoC goes against the views of the people. Removing Osborne from the Chancellor role also ends most of the political mistakes made by this Govt and the last one.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Well I would query the 6 word summary at the end, but otherwise I would agree.
Ditto. Rather Leavers are co-operative among their own people. Remainers are co-operative among their international peers.
To be fair up to now it has been a Conservative referendum Dave & George v Boris & Michael. Hardly enough to inspire the rest of us, as of 24 th June the government will be Tory for the foreseeable future . The blues win either way, why should the reds even bother. It is a bit like a manager asking to bring a sub on in the last 30 seconds of injury time , when you are 2-0 down.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
I suspect that most Welsh Tourism is from England rather than international.
Concievably if the pound collapses to parity with the Euro, Britain becomes cheaper for European tourists, while Brits find domestic holidays better than the pricier EU.
I suspect our net balance of trade in tourism may improve with Brexit.
Osborne is an idiot.
If I was a floating voter, Gove/Boris could secure my vote for Leave just by promising his dismissal.
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The anecdotes are very encouraging but why are they not being reflected in the polls. I would be expecting consistent 10% leads for Leave.
They are being reflected in the polls. We've had 3 recent polls putting Leave 10%, 6%, and 6% ahead.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
I think Remainers can be pretty tribal in their own way. My facebook newsfeed is full of arguments for Remain which tend to amount to how unsophisticated, provincial and absolutely ghastly Leavers are, accompanied by unflattering pictures of Nigel Farage, and how generally morally superior and generally better Remainers are. It's not all that different in tone from the mutually antagonistic posts which get put up arguing the merits of the supporters of Manchesters City and United. Remain appeals to base instincts of identity every bit as much as Leave does.
Never underestimate the tribalism of Margo Leadbetter types who think 80% of the population are uncouth,vulgar and unintelligent.
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Well I would query the 6 word summary at the end, but otherwise I would agree.
Ditto. Rather Leavers are co-operative among their own people. Remainers are co-operative among their international peers.
That last ITV debate was a classic example of the difference between the two camps. REMAIN the divided and nasty group. LEAVE the group with teamwork and politeness.
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
That's literally untrue. Who are they quoting?
Perception is everything, wheeling out Brown shows all is lost. They need to bail out and try to pin the blame on the Tories quickly.
Do think Brown holds any sway even in Scotland considering that SLab only got 22% of the vote in the Scottish Parliament . Also SNP voters look evenly divided so how can it be 60-40% to remain in Scotland.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
Labour rights?
If you think Labour rights are going to get people engaged, you will never understand the grievances of the working people of this country.
They'll get them engaged pretty soon, I'd guarantee.
Ok that really is the last post from me tonight - hope for some better news for Remain tomorrow !
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Well I would query the 6 word summary at the end, but otherwise I would agree.
You've always struck me as one of the more thoughtful and less tribal folk on here, and based on what you've said earlier about employment & background both are v.similar to mine. And yet we see this quite differently. What part of the country are you in?
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
The SNP figures are of great interest. I did hope (and it might well be true) that many of those who desire "independence" realise that there's not much point being "independent" (that is, not being part of the UK) if you then become part (in time) of a European superstate.
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The anecdotes are very encouraging but why are they not being reflected in the polls. I would be expecting consistent 10% leads for Leave.
They are there in the 10/10 numbers. ICM, Opinium and ORB.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
And I suspect Leavers in Scotland will keep quiet until they reach the polling booth after what happened to those who opposed the nats view two years ago since the nats are very pro remain
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The anecdotes are very encouraging but why are they not being reflected in the polls. I would be expecting consistent 10% leads for Leave.
They are being reflected in the polls. We've had 3 recent polls putting Leave 10%, 6%, and 6% ahead.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The anecdotes are very encouraging but why are they not being reflected in the polls. I would be expecting consistent 10% leads for Leave.
We have had polling adjustments many of which have cut back the LEAVE position.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
I thought Britain's GDP doesn't matter to the E.U wasn't that why they won't give us a good trade deal if we leave and yet we are creating a world wide recession? Nonsense! Although Britain is the fifth largest economy only China and America are large enough to cause a worldwide recession.
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
The most fascinating thing about that item is the line "We had sheets of Labour-supporting names". Rather suggests LabourIn are not using a computer system the volunteers can just input into directly?
Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
Eh? This guy was born in New York.
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."
How will HRC respond to this?
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.
There has to be a fair chance, sadly, of another Islamist outrage before the election. There have been at least two in the past six months.
And, as I pointed out yesterday, ISIS are probably rooting for Trump anyhow, to bring on the Apocalypse...
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
Desperate people will say anything. But it is certainly the case that any negative consequences of Brexit will be least felt by the well off.
Negative consequences of anything are least felt by the well off, that's what being well off means.
There are degrees, though. Pensioners have felt no negative consequences of the crash and austerity as they have been shielded from it all. That will continue post-Brexit as Tory Leavers know whose votes they will need.
"Inside Labour’s London HQ, I joined young volunteers manning the “Labour In” phones with every fact at the ready. We had sheets of Labour-supporting names to call in Nottinghamshire – and the results were grim. “Out”, “Out” and “Out” in call after call, only a couple for remain. “I’ve been Labour all my life, but I’m for leave,” they said. Why? Always the same – immigrants first; that mythical £350m saving on money sent to Brussels second; “I want my country back” third. And then there is, “I don’t know ANYONE voting in.”"
Halfway through she finally acknowledges that there might be a teensy problem with immigration, and we will need to stop Free Movement, even if we Remain.
But she also says we are turning into Nazis, so all is not lost
This thread demonstrates just how little Remainers understand this.
I understood it enough to predict a Leave win from the very start and to make a tasty sum from it. I also get that the feelings of betrayal post-Brexit will be hugely difficult for Boris & Co to rein in.
You understand it more than most, I'll certainly give you that.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
With oil at $ 50 a barrel, no chance.
Economic arguments don't always win. I cite Brexit.
The main problem here is that the leading "Remain" organisers simply did not understand Labour voters at all. Those barely struggling to make ends meet were NEVER, EVER, going to be persuaded by a parade of super-rich businessmen throwing tantrums and saying they'd go overseas if the result didn't go the way they wanted, nor were they were going to be swayed by doom-mongering about the economy when, as far as many of them were concerned, the economy as it applies to them is already in the pits anyway.
The "Leave" campaign look to be reaping the dividends of actually bothering to acknowledge the existence of Labour voters, and thinking about what arguments might sway them. "Get more money for your NHS" and "stop foreigners taking your jobs and driving down your wages" were always going to cut the mustard for them far more than the "Remain" arguments (no matter how disingenuous those arguments are coming from Tory ministers who have been overseeing record levels of immigration and record cuts to health).
Yep, the Tory Leavers have enthusiastically supported a range of policies that have caused real hardship to working people. But Labour's mistake was to allow this to be seen solely as a Tory civil war. In such a fight, the side standing against the government is likely to win.
I think this stuff about Labour politicians not having much prominence during the campaign is a bit of a red herring. There would've been no point having more frequent Labour messengers on TV, if they were simply pumping out the same Tory-middle-class-orientated message that the "Remain" campaign is based on (even today, on the day that the campaign was supposedly being handed over to Labour, Hilary Benn today was just recycling all the same stuff about a big recession and big multinational companies leaving the country).
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. 2015 Tories back Leave 51% to 44% https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
That's interesting, particularly the SNP numbers. If true Scotland could be close.
All polls show SNP being he most eurosceptic after the Tories. SNP leadership have learnt the lessons of SLab and not keen to call almost half their supporters Nazis.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
The stuff from Osborne is crazy - why Europeans couldn't come to visit Wales is beyond me.
Because only if we leave we'll garnish them all with lava bread and eat them alive out of coracles whilst reciting Max Boyce Live at Treorchy. That's why.
Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
Eh? This guy was born in New York.
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."
How will HRC respond to this?
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.
There has to be a fair chance, sadly, of another Islamist outrage before the election. There have been at least two in the past six months.
And, as I pointed out yesterday, ISIS are probably rooting for Trump anyhow, to bring on the Apocalypse...
Southam has repeatedly said that he finds Leavers concern for the poor implausible, God knows what he will make of Osborne's pleading.
Desperate people will say anything. But it is certainly the case that any negative consequences of Brexit will be least felt by the well off.
The negative consequences of remaining will be least felt by the well off, that's precisely why they are campaigning for Remain. They can afford, and will even be rewarded for ****ing us over.
The ideology of those leading the project naturally leads to the least well off getting screwed. Only by Leaving do we have any hope in hell of electing representatives who are more concerned by the opinions of their electorates.
I totally agree with your cynicism as stated in previous posts that simply voting Leave will rid us of the gravy train, but it is a start.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
With oil at $ 50 a barrel, no chance.
Economic arguments don't always win. I cite Brexit.
Toynbee was complaining about the effectiveness of the £ 350 m per week economic argument.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
I bet that's 68% of quite a small number, and I'd suggest that's actually quite a small percentage given that the EU is nearby relative to the US, Australia etc.
Well I am 100% Leave but I shall still take my holidays on Greek islands!
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
Well I would query the 6 word summary at the end, but otherwise I would agree.
Ditto. Rather Leavers are co-operative among their own people. Remainers are co-operative among their international peers.
That last ITV debate was a classic example of the difference between the two camps. REMAIN the divided and nasty group. LEAVE the group with teamwork and politeness.
While I agree that the ITV debate was a complete car-crash for Remain, it is the Leavers who often tend to be more boorish in their disagreement.
One of my relatives, who was an almost certain Leaver, is now thinking twice after watching a recording of the Sutton Coldfield debate (the one that PlatoSaid watched last Saturday). Her reason? She was disgusted by the booing directed at the 18-year-old local student who was representing the Remain position and impressed by Paddy Ashdown's intervention to ask for some consideration.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
I think Remain's best hope of keeping Labour voters on board was trying to make it an anti-establishment campaign of their own. I.e. "stop your bosses ripping you off with the workers rights that the EU gives". "The EU is tough on tax avoidance, so you can stop rich bastards squirrelling their money away in tax havens and ripping you off". Maybe even a dose of US-bashing thrown in: "Donald Trump is coming, so a strong EU is the only chance to keep him in check".
That would've been far from guaranteed to work, of course, since it still wouldn't have had any answers to the #1 issue of immigration, but it would've had a better chance than this farce of urging the working-classes to have solidarity with mega-rich businessmen, or the vacuous slogans about Britain being an "outward-facing country".
The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.
I think Remainers can be pretty tribal in their own way. My facebook newsfeed is full of arguments for Remain which tend to amount to how unsophisticated, provincial and absolutely ghastly Leavers are, accompanied by unflattering pictures of Nigel Farage, and how generally morally superior and generally better Remainers are. It's not all that different in tone from the mutually antagonistic posts which get put up arguing the merits of the supporters of Manchesters City and United. Remain appeals to base instincts of identity every bit as much as Leave does.
Quite so. I look (relatively) young, sound AB and dress AB in live in London and the South East.
You should hear the things I hear about Leavers, and the look of shock/embarrassment they then have on their faces when I quietly point out to them that I am a Leaver.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.
There are degrees, though. Pensioners have felt no negative consequences of the crash and austerity as they have been shielded from it all. That will continue post-Brexit as Tory Leavers know whose votes they will need.
They would be fools if they did that, and I don't think you can assume all Tory Leavers think alike. There seem to be a decent number who think that the Tory party needs to change direction.
Went leafleting with a friend just after reading the two ICM polls. A spring in our step. Now covered around 1,000 houses in my very working class Labour area: Vote Leave and Labour Leave leaflets going through the doors. Got another 3,000 odd to do over next ten days.
Feeling optimistic but taking nothing for granted. Assuming we're behind but we can do this!
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
And I suspect Leavers in Scotland will keep quiet until they reach the polling booth after what happened to those who opposed the nats view two years ago since the nats are very pro remain
That is wrong, as the polling shows SNP voters are almost 50% to 50% in Scotland, it is Leave which is the nationalist vote not Remain, UKIP are the equivalent of the SNP in this vote, there are no cybernats shouting from the rooftops for Cameron to win! It is the middle class who are for Remain, the working class for Leave, in Scotland it was the middle class for No, the working class for Yes
Osborne evasive and just did not address about the Turkey visa papers matter and chose only to say that LEAVE are "misrepresenting the truth". So WTF is the truth Osborne?
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
With oil at $ 50 a barrel, no chance.
Economic arguments don't always win. I cite Brexit.
Toynbee was complaining about the effectiveness of the £ 350 m per week economic argument.
Toynbee? You're seriously citing Toynbee. Take a shower.
Southam has repeatedly said that he finds Leavers concern for the poor implausible, God knows what he will make of Osborne's pleading.
Desperate people will say anything. But it is certainly the case that any negative consequences of Brexit will be least felt by the well off.
Yes, and that's what makes Corbyn's 'Remain' stance very clever. When economic Armageddon ensues post-Brexit, he'll be perfectly placed to hoover up the working-class voters by pointing out, rightly, that a bunch of Tories are responsible for their misery. Boris will be king of a poisoned realm. Moreover, Corbyn will look even more of a visionary because he used to be a euro-sceptic, he can now say 'I changed my mind because I knew this would happen'. Jezz has played a blinder.
re: Osborne. Do none of his advisors have the sense to tell Osborne (who is respected by just 2%) to just STFU?
But he's universally loved, fair and honest. He's cleared the deficit, led a manufacturing revolution and kick started the northern powerhouse, all whilst being totally non partisan and doing it all for the good of the country. How could anyone not respect him?
I'm being harsh, but I'm sure it's what he believes.
Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
Eh? This guy was born in New York.
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."
How will HRC respond to this?
By pointing out that Republican congressmen and Senators go to events organised by people who openly advocate for the death of gays.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
I would suggest it is genuinely now a 50-50 call on the winner on the night.
We should also remember that the Northern Irish are not included in these opinion polls... would be something if the UK remains in the EU "because" of Northern Irish voters.
I have tonight donated a bit of cash to the Leave campaign - they're going to need a little help in that final push! If you're a Leaver and are set to make money in the betting, consider a contribution to the campaign!
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:- 1. Agreed. 2. Communicated prior to 23rd. Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space. Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
He's a plonker. What is more, people will not believe him.
he is the worst possible person saying it. A bit like Farage saying I want to Leave because he likes Shariah law and remain hurts people who want separate courts.
There are degrees, though. Pensioners have felt no negative consequences of the crash and austerity as they have been shielded from it all. That will continue post-Brexit as Tory Leavers know whose votes they will need.
They would be fools if they did that, and I don't think you can assume all Tory Leavers think alike. There seem to be a decent number who think that the Tory party needs to change direction.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.
But what % of the total vote are postal votes? And what lead do Leave have in them?
If it comes down to last throw of the dice, might Cameron / Osborne do a John Smith style 1992 "Budget" - ie announce specific cuts and tax rises that will be implemented if there is a Leave vote.
I think the problem now is that whatever is said is just too general. Nobody is taking any notice.
So they need to do something specific - eg announce there will be an emergency budget on date x (name actual date - say Wednesday 7 July) and the following cuts will be made:
- Cuts to welfare (name specific benefits and specific cuts) - Tuition fee increases (specify amount) - Fuel duty increases (specify amount) etc etc.
Focus entirely on specifics and on benefits / taxes that people understand well and can relate to. So child benefit, not tax credits etc.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
No point of talking about labour rights if you can't get a job or ur wages are cut because of unlimited immigration. Also my dad's bus company hired workers from the E.U and traet them worse because of the posted workers directive. They went on strike about it.
George Osborne @George_Osborne Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.
Although it is Twitter.
The stuff from Osborne is crazy - why Europeans couldn't come to visit Wales is beyond me.
Because only if we leave we'll garnish them all with lava bread and eat them alive out of coracles whilst reciting Max Boyce Live at Treorchy. That's why.
Not a vegetarian then?
No but in fairness lava bread can be one of five a day.
The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
I think Remain's best hope of keeping Labour voters on board was trying to make it an anti-establishment campaign of their own. I.e. "stop your bosses ripping you off with the workers rights that the EU gives". "The EU is tough on tax avoidance, so you can stop rich bastards squirrelling their money away in tax havens and ripping you off". Maybe even a dose of US-bashing thrown in: "Donald Trump is coming, so a strong EU is the only chance to keep him in check".
That would've been far from guaranteed to work, of course, since it still wouldn't have had any answers to the #1 issue of immigration, but it would've had a better chance than this farce of urging the working-classes to have solidarity with mega-rich businessmen, or the vacuous slogans about Britain being an "outward-facing country".
Tough on tax avoidance ... with Junker at the helm. The man who arranged Luxembourg’s deals !!
If I was Labour, I would start by saying immigration is good, but not at the cost of disruption of working class communities who bear the brunt of it, and it is not unreasonable to have a cap on annual numbers so that we can properly prepare for the demand for public services (schools, hospitals, housing).
When I was young, Labour believed in a planned economy, not the free-for-all of capitalism. So, this is a true expression of Labour’s heritage -- let’s plan rather than rely on lassiez-faire economics. Let’s plan for the immigration which we do need.
I agree that number of the annual cap (say whether 100k or 300k per annum) would be difficult to agree, but politicians are good at finessing things away. This seems the obvious way to me for Labour to regain control of the immigration issue, and make it a positive for them.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
Not if Scotland's vote is similar to rUK's vote, surely? If they want that, surely they'd highlight the disparity & vote Remain?
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
If Remain win, which would be a narrow win, UKIP will seek to portray themselves as the true champions of the working class as the SNP did in Scotland, with the middle class establishment parties again split 3 ways who knows what could happen?
If it comes down to last throw of the dice, might Cameron / Osborne do a John Smith style 1992 "Budget" - ie announce specific cuts and tax rises that will be implemented if there is a Leave vote.
I think the problem now is that whatever is said is just too general. Nobody is taking any notice.
So they need to do something specific - eg announce there will be an emergency budget on date x (name actual date - say Wednesday 7 July) and the following cuts will be made:
- Cuts to welfare (name specific benefits and specific cuts) - Tuition fee increases (specify amount) - Fuel duty increases (specify amount) etc etc.
Focus entirely on specifics and on benefits / taxes that people understand well and can relate to. So child benefit, not tax credits etc.
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
Not if Scotland's vote is similar to rUK's vote, surely? If they want that, surely they'd highlight the disparity & vote Remain?
It's a fine line. Perhaps Sturgeon needs to make it clear that they are taking a big risk.
Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
Eh? This guy was born in New York.
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."
How will HRC respond to this?
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.
But what % of the total vote are postal votes? And what lead do Leave have in them?
We just don't know.
gonna stick my neck out and say leave have atleast a 15% lead in postal vote. The way labour are shitting themselves and the ICM showing 38% labour leave when it was 30% only tells me this.
If it comes down to last throw of the dice, might Cameron / Osborne do a John Smith style 1992 "Budget" - ie announce specific cuts and tax rises that will be implemented if there is a Leave vote.
I think the problem now is that whatever is said is just too general. Nobody is taking any notice.
So they need to do something specific - eg announce there will be an emergency budget on date x (name actual date - say Wednesday 7 July) and the following cuts will be made:
- Cuts to welfare (name specific benefits and specific cuts) - Tuition fee increases (specify amount) - Fuel duty increases (specify amount) etc etc.
Focus entirely on specifics and on benefits / taxes that people understand well and can relate to. So child benefit, not tax credits etc.
They spend £25bn a year on the EU and overseas aid.
The reason the £350m a week is so effective is that folk look at the usual 'centrist' politicians telling them they have to endure cuts whilst they spend their taxes giving money away to people in other countries.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.
But what % of the total vote are postal votes? And what lead do Leave have in them?
We just don't know.
Postal votes are probably going to be 20% of the total vote. It was 16.9% at the GE a year ago.
I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:- 1. Agreed. 2. Communicated prior to 23rd. Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space. Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
168 hours to save the EU!
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of border
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotland
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.
If Scotland votes 51% leave or more, that does not follow at all.
In fact either way it probably doesn't follow either.
If it comes down to last throw of the dice, might Cameron / Osborne do a John Smith style 1992 "Budget" - ie announce specific cuts and tax rises that will be implemented if there is a Leave vote.
As John Smith probably did more than Kinnock to lose the 92 election that wouldn't be a great idea.
Perhaps they could copy an idea that actually worked - "Brexit tax double whammy"
If it comes down to last throw of the dice, might Cameron / Osborne do a John Smith style 1992 "Budget" - ie announce specific cuts and tax rises that will be implemented if there is a Leave vote.
I think the problem now is that whatever is said is just too general. Nobody is taking any notice.
So they need to do something specific - eg announce there will be an emergency budget on date x (name actual date - say Wednesday 7 July) and the following cuts will be made:
- Cuts to welfare (name specific benefits and specific cuts) - Tuition fee increases (specify amount) - Fuel duty increases (specify amount) etc etc.
Focus entirely on specifics and on benefits / taxes that people understand well and can relate to. So child benefit, not tax credits etc.
The problem with that is we wouldn't be leaving the EU until June 2018. Therefore it would, in my view, be seen as pure spite directed towards the poorest in society. I'd add that tuition fee increases would affect a cohort that is probably pro-remain.
I know Tories are represented as heartless bastards, and maybe the metropolitan flavour are. But I don't think the glove fits quite as well in the counties. When Jenny was diagnosed, she became eligible for PIP. It's £140 (gross) quid a week tops. For being terminally ill. We were comfortably off, so it wasn't needed. But that really, really brought it home to me how appalling it must be to be poor and sick in this country. We really need to target our enormous welfare spend better. Stopping our subsidies to wealthy pensioners wouldn't hurt either.
Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years). Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
Comments
If you think Labour rights are going to get people engaged, you will never understand the grievances of the working people of this country.
I think polls suggest most people don't think Remain or Leave will affect them financially. Remain needs to try to change that perception.
Whether anyone will believe it - who knows? But I think it probably provides the best scope for Remain to pick up votes.
To paraphrase a football chant
"Remain campaign, you're having a laugh"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457903
It dosent follow that their starting point with remain ahead was actually correct
Hardly enough to inspire the rest of us, as of 24 th June the government will be Tory for the foreseeable future .
The blues win either way, why should the reds even bother.
It is a bit like a manager asking to bring a sub on in the last 30 seconds of injury time , when you are 2-0 down.
Ok that really is the last post from me tonight - hope for some better news for Remain tomorrow !
There has to be a fair chance, sadly, of another Islamist outrage before the election. There have been at least two in the past six months.
And, as I pointed out yesterday, ISIS are probably rooting for Trump anyhow, to bring on the Apocalypse...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/SUSA_June_2016_National.pdf
The ideology of those leading the project naturally leads to the least well off getting screwed. Only by Leaving do we have any hope in hell of electing representatives who are more concerned by the opinions of their electorates.
I totally agree with your cynicism as stated in previous posts that simply voting Leave will rid us of the gravy train, but it is a start.
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
One of my relatives, who was an almost certain Leaver, is now thinking twice after watching a recording of the Sutton Coldfield debate (the one that PlatoSaid watched last Saturday). Her reason? She was disgusted by the booing directed at the 18-year-old local student who was representing the Remain position and impressed by Paddy Ashdown's intervention to ask for some consideration.
That would've been far from guaranteed to work, of course, since it still wouldn't have had any answers to the #1 issue of immigration, but it would've had a better chance than this farce of urging the working-classes to have solidarity with mega-rich businessmen, or the vacuous slogans about Britain being an "outward-facing country".
You should hear the things I hear about Leavers, and the look of shock/embarrassment they then have on their faces when I quietly point out to them that I am a Leaver.
Feeling optimistic but taking nothing for granted. Assuming we're behind but we can do this!
I'm being harsh, but I'm sure it's what he believes.
We should also remember that the Northern Irish are not included in these opinion polls... would be something if the UK remains in the EU "because" of Northern Irish voters.
I have tonight donated a bit of cash to the Leave campaign - they're going to need a little help in that final push! If you're a Leaver and are set to make money in the betting, consider a contribution to the campaign!
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
We just don't know.
I think the problem now is that whatever is said is just too general. Nobody is taking any notice.
So they need to do something specific - eg announce there will be an emergency budget on date x (name actual date - say Wednesday 7 July) and the following cuts will be made:
- Cuts to welfare (name specific benefits and specific cuts)
- Tuition fee increases (specify amount)
- Fuel duty increases (specify amount)
etc etc.
Focus entirely on specifics and on benefits / taxes that people understand well and can relate to. So child benefit, not tax credits etc.
If I was Labour, I would start by saying immigration is good, but not at the cost of disruption of working class communities who bear the brunt of it, and it is not unreasonable to have a cap on annual numbers so that we can properly prepare for the demand for public services (schools, hospitals, housing).
When I was young, Labour believed in a planned economy, not the free-for-all of capitalism. So, this is a true expression of Labour’s heritage -- let’s plan rather than rely on lassiez-faire economics. Let’s plan for the immigration which we do need.
I agree that number of the annual cap (say whether 100k or 300k per annum) would be difficult to agree, but politicians are good at finessing things away. This seems the obvious way to me for Labour to regain control of the immigration issue, and make it a positive for them.
Trump is still a potential trump card* for Remain. His appearance on the eve of poll could yet help the floundering europhile cause.
*excuse the pun
Our diversity isn’t a liability in the fight against terrorism. It’s an asset. It makes us stronger."
The reason the £350m a week is so effective is that folk look at the usual 'centrist' politicians telling them they have to endure cuts whilst they spend their taxes giving money away to people in other countries.
The public's priorities have not been addressed.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
In fact either way it probably doesn't follow either.
Perhaps they could copy an idea that actually worked - "Brexit tax double whammy"
I know Tories are represented as heartless bastards, and maybe the metropolitan flavour are. But I don't think the glove fits quite as well in the counties. When Jenny was diagnosed, she became eligible for PIP. It's £140 (gross) quid a week tops. For being terminally ill. We were comfortably off, so it wasn't needed. But that really, really brought it home to me how appalling it must be to be poor and sick in this country. We really need to target our enormous welfare spend better. Stopping our subsidies to wealthy pensioners wouldn't hurt either.
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.