Somebody earlier did mention that Northern Ireland wasn't polled. Sorry to rain on the parade, but that will cause a net 1% swing to Remain. How many expats will vote?
I do not think that NI will add much more than 0.6% to REMAIN. Main unionist party is for LEAVE. So a 1% swing is the maximum.
"Northern Ireland voters are overwhelmingly in favour of the UK remaining in the European Union, but Protestants are far more divided than Catholics on the issue."
Talk about misleading subtitle. They never asked if they were in favour of remaining/leaving, they asked if they thought it would make the UK weaker.
And with McGuiness and the boys supporting remain catholic leavers will play their cards close to the chest until they are in the polling booth
Leave's to lose now. It's the markets or bust for Remain. They have fought an abysmal campaign, though Leave's has been little better. The turning point - as I said a the time - was the release of the immigration stats a couple of weeks back. Cameron hoisted by his own petard (or whatever the phrase is). In retrospect he has spent the last eight years or so sowing the ground for this defeat and his consignment to history. Over to Boris.
Southam, whilst I agree on Cameron, I have to say it was slightly strange to hear Brown going on about all the benefits of EU membership given his reputation for surliness and disinterest at EU meetings. And what of Blair? He started off with all the heart of Europe guff but then lost interest when he found the White House far more to his tastes. Almost no UK politician has bothered trying to sell the EU for a generation and it shows.
Of course. But Cameron made the referendum call having actively talked down the EU and been entirely negative about immigration. He then campaigned to stay in on the basis that the EU was (is) vital to the UK's interests. He revealed himself to be a complete con artist. No wonder he has lost so much trust.
Cameron's biggest tactical mistake was assuming that a Blairite Labour party would be leading the Remain campaign and not readjusting the timing of the vote once Corbyn took over. He should have postponed until 2018 at least.
"Public sentiment on the ground is evenly divided. In a nationwide survey my firm completed June 8, Leave had 49% of the vote, Remain 47%, and only a handful of voters (4%) remain truly, totally undecided. Anybody who tells you today that they can predict the final outcome is either fooling or fibbing. It is truly too close to call" http://time.com/4364697/brexit-frank-luntz-poll/
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Overheard conversation in waiting room at work. Several retired old fellows moaning about the money going to the EU rather than NHS.
Overheard conversation between 3 nurses, one white British, one Indian and one Filipino (all naturalised so eligible to vote). All undecided, but leaning Leave over the subject of immigration.
I think both these memes are hollow, but they are working.
Why do you think remain are so incensed by the £350m figure?
It is a blatent lie and sounds like a lot of money. It is a meme (with immigration) that strikes a chord.
It's not a blatant lie. It's what we give to them then they give us a chunk back - but they tell us how to spend it. It is one valid way of expressing our contribution, along with others.
This was another major error by REMAIN. By continuously bitching about this figure they simply made everyone look at the figure and gasp in horror. £350m a week, £250m a week - these ALL seem like huge numbers to most voters.
It is a lie, but even after the rebate and net spend still a large amout of money. Truth no longer matters once the lie is established. In the post-modern world there is no absolute truth, just opinions that even when illinformed are held to be of equal value.
We are one of the wealthier countries in Europe and I am reasonably happy about subsidising the poorer areas of Europe to develop, just as a higher rate taxpayer I expect to subsidise poorer members of society. No one makes that argument though.
But the poorer countries in Europe are locked in sclerosis. Our membership doesn't appear to be doing them any good either.
The altruistic argument is noble, but just because an agreement is bad for us doesn't mean it's necessarily good for someone else - or at least not for the someone else that we might intend. Meanwhile, we're stopping impoverished African farmers from trading with us.
It's actually worse than that. We allow them to grow things we cannot but we do not allow them to add value for it seems, they must know their place. Both disgustingly immoral, anti capitalist and counter productive all at the same time. The internationalist left and the right should be out campaigning for free fair trade to Africa but instead we chuck them scraps.
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
Only two groups bother me at all - gangsta blacks, and aggressive Muslims who make it plain that I'm a slut in their eyes.
A few years ago on here I was accused of being a racist [inc by someone who's written a lot of articles] for saying I felt threatened on Whitechapel tube station. And in Luton for wearing a sleeveless frock. I'm very glad that it's no longer such a taboo to say so.
The whole Leave vote backlash is a damning indictment of the suppression of legitimate concerns.
@Cookie Those are the official Vote Leave posters. That's what they want you to vote on.
I'd like to think that everyone voting Conservative at the last GE didn't do so on the basis Alex Salmond was a pickpocket - Sir Lynton's efforts in London weren't exactly cricket either.
I'm sure this campaign will be orphaned like Zac's was should it go wrong as it is appearing to do so now though...
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
As mentioned to @MaxPB I just don't think it credible for the government of whichever stripe not to incorporate the VLTC manifesto into its future EU policy.
Unless leave wins 65/35 the government won't be able to completely ignore the 45-49% of people that have voted to stay and I'm sure Boris will be willing to make the compromise.
Always thought Osborne would see the advantage of really putting the heft of government behind business - without the EU blocking. He has put some money into the RR mini nuclear power stations, but the money he can work with just puts everything out of reach. Why do we have to go cap in hand to France to finance a power station?
The Labour anecdata is arguably more important than the polls. For Labour figures to say this about migration (migration!) must mean they are absolutely panicked.
REMAIN is losing. And the Labour dudes are right. Some kind of vow is needed. Cameron has to go UDI - say we need control on migration, in the next two years, or we leave.
Put a gun to the heads of the other EU states. See who blinks.
Would it work? No idea. But if Dave really believes half the crap he's spouted about Apocalypse Impending, he needs to do it, or something similar
Disagree. No-one would believe Cameron now. He has sown the seeds of his own destruction and there is nothing he can do about it. His only hope is that the markets react very badly and that spooks enough people for Remain to scrape over the line. Failing that, it's curtains and over to Boris.
Yes, possibly right.
OTOH it would work coming from the EU itself, maybe?
Dunno.
But surely REMAIN has to try something, and something special, if they REALLY believe that OUT means the End of the Known World. If they just sit back and calmly await defeat, it means that they were wholly and knowingly exaggerating all along, AKA lying.
I think Juncker has been asked to keep quiet about the UK referendum with the caveat that he may be allowed to speak during the last week of the campaign if things are looking bad for Remain.
Something tells me we might be hearing from him very soon.
Should be worth another 5% swing.
"Fuck off, Juncker, we're voting Leave"
There has been a strange creaking sound these past weeks, as thousands of Eurocrats walk around on eggshells. They are at breaking point.
If Remain squeak this and then there's a barrage of saved-up announcements that could have shown Brussels in its true light, there'll be hell to pay.... Leave, dishonest? You ain't seen nothing till you've seen Remain.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Obviously because he thought he'd win at a canter. Or, that he was, at best, entering Coalition 2.0 when he could bin the commitment at the behest of the Libdems.
@Pulpstar I do not see how a Leave vote could be interpreted as anything other than a demand that the government crack down on immigration as its highest negotiating priority, given how the campaign has been conducted.
Overheard conversation in waiting room at work. Several retired old fellows moaning about the money going to the EU rather than NHS.
Overheard conversation between 3 nurses, one white British, one Indian and one Filipino (all naturalised so eligible to vote). All undecided, but leaning Leave over the subject of immigration.
I think both these memes are hollow, but they are working.
Why do you think remain are so incensed by the £350m figure?
It is a blatent lie and sounds like a lot of money. It is a meme (with immigration) that strikes a chord.
It's not a blatant lie. It's what we give to them then they give us a chunk back - but they tell us how to spend it. It is one valid way of expressing our contribution, along with others.
This was another major error by REMAIN. By continuously bitching about this figure they simply made everyone look at the figure and gasp in horror. £350m a week, £250m a week - these ALL seem like huge numbers to most voters.
It is a lie, but even after the rebate and net spend still a large amout of money. Truth no longer matters once the lie is established. In the post-modern world there is no absolute truth, just opinions that even when illinformed are held to be of equal value.
We are one of the wealthier countries in Europe and I am reasonably happy about subsidising the poorer areas of Europe to develop, just as a higher rate taxpayer I expect to subsidise poorer members of society. No one makes that argument though.
Subsidising the poorer areas of europe is not working. If it was migration would not be so high. All that money finds it's way to the select few. In the soviet bloc countries the rich are getting richer. Sound familiar?
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
There may be more clout in trade negotiations but it will be AD3000 before they get agreement.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
@Pulpstar I do not see how a Leave vote could be interpreted as anything other than a demand that the government crack down on immigration as its highest negotiating priority, given how the campaign has been conducted.
Has the gap between the government and the masses ever been greater? I can't think at any point over my lifetime (40 years and counting) that it's been as wide as the chasm it is right now.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
There may be more clout in trade negotiations but it will be AD3000 before they get agreement.
You are down by 1!
I encourage PBers of all persuasions to try!
And yes, as admitted at the end! Was running out of ideas
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Forex is a 24 hour a day market. If the pound was going to take a hammering because of this poll, that hammering would have occurred at about 16:59-17:01 this afternoon.
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Obviously because he thought he'd win at a canter. Or, that he was, at best, entering Coalition 2.0 when he could bin the commitment at the behest of the Libdems.
If only the Tories hadn't campaigned in the south west Cameron would be sitting pretty. Funny game, politics.
Wintour? Hmmmm.... Labour blaming the Tories that Labour voters wouldn't, er, vote for the Tories. It requires some brass neck to pull that one off.
Cameron sowed the seeds of his own destruction. You can't spend years talking in negative terms about the EU and immigration, and then expect the voting public to take you seriously when you change your mind completely and with no real explanation. History will judge him harshly, but perhaps not as harshly as the Leavers who take over from him.
And Jeremy Corbyn has been a huge fan of the EU project for years, oh wait...
Twitter Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 8h8 hours ago SNP and Labour leaderships will be equally culpable if there's a Brexit vote in the 23rd.
Yep, Corbyn will have a great deal of responsibility too; not that he will give a flying fig. Don't think I'd blame the SNP, though. Scotland looks sure to vote Remain. The fact is that this is Cameron's campaign, just as it was his decision to buy off his right wing with the referendum promise in the first place. He spent eight years talking down the EU and making negative noises about immigration solely, it turns out, for electoral advantage. He has inflicted this defeat on himself and will be judged accordingly.
Corbyn and Sturgeon are going to be the big winners out of all of this. Sturgeon will pounce immediately after Leave's victory, demanding another SindyRef and probably winning it. Corbyn will then have, in his eyes, a stranded England ripe for revolution. Brexit will have humiliated the Labour moderates too, leaving them redundant and the far-Left in charge of Labour for ever.
Sadly, Corbyn is the Tory get out of jail free card. This is a huge opportunity for Labour that the membership will undoubtedly squander.
That's wishful thinking on the Tory side.
The Tories are on the brink of a historic disaster. They've turned on the Cameron centrist project and will take over seems poised to immediately destroy any trust by lurching towards a deal that won't end free movement.
Corbyn couldn't wish for a better set of circumstances.
Yep, the Tories are turning right and will disappoint many on the final Brexit deal. There will be many cries of betrayal. But Corbyn is Corbyn, I'm afraid. He is unelectable. Another Labour leader - even McDonnell (who personally I could not vote for) - and you would have a point.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
One is nonsense. CERN existed before the EU.
ESA membership includes Norway and Switzerland, which are not in the EU, but not Latvia or Lithuania, which are.
ESO membership includes Brazil, Switzerland, not in the EU, but does not include Ireland, Latvia, many others
Basically, like all clubs, you join CERN or ESO or ESA if you can afford the membership fees. They are nothing to do with the EU.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
Thank you for trying, but you've just demonstrated my point.
Which is to be fair what Salmond and the Scot Nats have been saying about the Remain campaign for weeks. He took part with Alan Johnstone on the only TV debate that Remain have actually won arguing a positive case FOR immigration and a positive case FOR peace and co-operation in Europe.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
One is nonsense. CERN existed before the EU.
ESA membership includes Norway and Switzerland, which are not in the EU, but not Latvia or Lithuania, which are.
ESO membership includes Brazil, Switzerland, not in the EU, but does not include Ireland, Latvia, many others
Basically, like all clubs, you join CERN or ESO or ESA if you can afford the membership fees. Thy are nothing to do with the EU.
A fair point, but the EU does fund a lot of science/tech stuff, which we are very good at getting, more than our fair share per capita. If I could edit my post I would put it in that light, rather than those memberships.
Mr. Glenn, although we're on opposite sides in the referendum I agree completely with you that an English Parliament and far smaller Westminster/UK Government (Foreign, Defence, some Home and Treasury functions) would be a sensible, indeed obvious, step.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
Thank you for trying, but you've just demonstrated my point.
I'm probably not the ideal candidate to try though....
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Most people don't like the sense of becoming a minority in the area they've lived in for years.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
Let me try:
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO) *Common standards for trade within the single market *Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind *More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
One is nonsense. CERN existed before the EU.
ESA membership includes Norway and Switzerland, which are not in the EU, but not Latvia or Lithuania, which are.
ESO membership includes Brazil, Switzerland, not in the EU, but does not include Ireland, Latvia, many others
Basically, like all clubs, you join CERN or ESO or ESA if you can afford the membership fees. Thy are nothing to do with the EU.
A fair point, but the EU does fund a lot of science/tech stuff, which we are very good at getting, more than our fair share per capita. If I could edit my post I would put it in that light, rather than those memberships.
Don't forget that we can and would pay our way into Horizon 2020 which is open to non-EU countries.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
I'm increasingly coming to the view that the Scottish nationalists and Irish republicans have essentially the correct view that Westminster is an imperialist relic that isn't fit for purpose. We urgently need a constitutional convention with no sacred cows.
How does that gel with recent devolution?
As the conclusion would almost certainly be a federal UK with an English parliament and a weak central government, it should gel very nicely.
No, I mean how does the view that Westminster is imperialist gel with devolution?
Without a federal structure, granting devolution to only some parts of the UK is akin to giving Home Rule to the dominions.
Now I get you: imperialist from the English perspective.
It does increasingly look like we're going to have to get used to living in an independent England. Westminster reform is urgent.
If we get an independent England then the need for reform is zero.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
The thing that is most likely to rescue his legacy - or make it less abysmal - is what happens post-Brexit. If Boris tanks, then that will make Dave look a whole lot better.
Which is to be fair what Salmond and the Scot Nats have been saying about the Remain campaign for weeks. He took part with Alan Johnstone on the only TV debate that Remain have actually won arguing a positive case FOR immigration and a positive case FOR peace and co-operation in Europe.
Well Salmond and Sturgeon whatever you think of them have got more political nous than all of the Labour and Tory remain campaigners put together. Yet I sense that they themselves are terribly torn on the issue as they can see the opportunities of a leave vote to get Scottish independence and apply to get back into the EU after that........which will be much easier if Scotland as a whole votes remain amongst an overall leave vote, when compared with SINDY in advance of a leave referendum result.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
I agree the PM deserves credit for sticking to the manifesto pledge to have a referendum. If he had really played hard ball with Merkel and Juncker, and got some decent reforms, Remain would be ahead by a country mile.
At least the Conservative Party doesn't lack courage when they get into power. They knew this would split the party and welfare reform was always guaranteed to get them a good kicking. Labour are all about soundbites and short-term ideas.
James Forsyth @JGForsyth Hold your horses, immigration offer only Ed Balls reiterating his view—held since '10—that there should be controls on EU economic migration
'Ang about, Balls is just going solo. Claims he's been saying this since 2010.
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Because he thought he'd win easily. Cf the ludicrous deal. He reckoned he could sell any old shit.
Equally, he did give us a vote, unlike any PM in 40 years. Even as the contumely pours over Cameron, in coming years, he deserves a lot of credit for that. He was a democrat and he has given us a democratic choice.
Perhaps it will be this, in the very long term, which will rescue his legacy.
The thing that is most likely to rescue his legacy - or make it less abysmal - is what happens post-Brexit. If Boris tanks, then that will make Dave look a whole lot better.
I think you are far too negative about our future if we leave. I think after a short term downturn we would do very well. We are a strong trading nation and armed with a weak currency we would do well.
Just how extraordinary are our Brexit betting markets at present? Despite accumulating evidence that LEAVE has now drawn level with REMAIN and may now be fractionally ahead, the betting odds are telling a very different tale with the best available LEAVE price from various bookies at 2.75 (aka 7/4) a and the best available REMAIN price from Stan James at 1.53 (aka 8/15). Were one to stake £100 on both these bets, were LEAVE to win this would produce a profit of £175, whereas were REMAIN to win, the resulting profit would be £53, almost 70% less than the profit from backing LEAVE. The conclusion has to be that either the polls or the bookies' odds are substantially incorrect and are likely to reconcile much more closely by polling day. This is where I and probably others need some wise advice from Mike Smithson ..... PLEASE!
The pound is likely to take a hammering tomorrow.Markets down across the world on Brexit fears.Brexit is making a world recession more possible.Why did Cameron ever agree to this?
Bollocks. Markets are up and down like a lady of ill reputes draws.
Brexit may catalyse a recession. That's inarguable. However, there's a recession on the way, Brexit or no.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
May and inarguable are total opposites. Which one is it....
Mr. 86, there's a change. I wonder if they'll use the T-word more often.
In reference to the gay nightclub shooting, I take it?
Yes, I'm being a bit fictitious - it's the only word to describe such actions. I've just watched the Owen Jones thing from last night. On the one hand I can understand that Jones was upset - I can believe such an attack would have a personal impact on someone who may go to such clubs. I felt a shiver go down my spine when I first heard about the Stade de France attacks.
But what annoys me is this sense that we should be more angry about these murders because it is a 'hate crime'. I'm sorry, but indiscriminate terrorist attacks are just as bad. Perhaps in future, media outlets like the Guardian won't be so quick to jump to the defence of Islam the next time there is an attack on a city like Paris or London.
He's way off. I'd estimate Leave at a 70% chance...currently.
splutter !
that's rather bullish Rod.
Is it? With Golf Standard polls like this?
well I'm still in the stay cautious bit.
leavers wishing to believe what they are hearing could end up like the SNPers post Indyref. PB needs more alternative views ( but won't get them ) Personally I'm still at the too close to call stage, but Rod has a damned good track record which sort of makes me sit up and take notice.
Wintour? Hmmmm.... Labour blaming the Tories that Labour voters wouldn't, er, vote for the Tories. It requires some brass neck to pull that one off.
Cameron sowed the seeds of his own destruction. You can't spend years talking in negative terms about the EU and immigration, and then expect the voting public to take you seriously when you change your mind completely and with no real explanation. History will judge him harshly, but perhaps not as harshly as the Leavers who take over from him.
And Jeremy Corbyn has been a huge fan of the EU project for years, oh wait...
Twitter Kenny Farquharson @KennyFarq 8h8 hours ago SNP and Labour leaderships will be equally culpable if there's a Brexit vote in the 23rd.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
Leave surely has it in the bag now. This has all the look and feel of the same phenomenon that created Donald Trump and is equally unstoppable. I can't see anything else that Remain can possibly do (other than pray that they're fantastically and wholeheartedly wrong about the consequences of Brexit).
The establishment are getting the kicking they deserve. They have taken the p*** out of the public and thought they could just keep tweaking. The worm has turned and it will be wonderful to see them wet their pants.
This is why Vote Leave are playing these polls down and still saying it's 50/50 (which it probably is)
Mike Smithson 5m Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB Biggest hope for REMAIN from ICM polling is that LEAVE vote concentrated amongst C2DEs - the socio-economic group least likely to vote
@John_M That's the mandate that Leave is seeking: an anti-immigration, pull-up-the-drawbridge, scared about Muslims mandate.
If you want that, vote for it. But don't fool yourself that voting Leave means anything else.
Most immigrants nowadays are Christian or Hindu.
Doesn't matter. Who the fuck is frightened of a Hindu? I wrote the other day about hating -phobic as a suffix, but a lot of people are clearly scared of Muslims, completely disproportionately to the risks they pose.
It not about fear its about cultural dislocation. People living in non-metropolitan UK, especially the elderly, don't feel comfortable in their own towns, they don't like seeing minarets, they aren't comfortable hearing calls from the Muezzin, they don't like seeing people in veils, but its not all about muslims, they don't like looking down the street their grew up in and seeing a long line of "polski sklep" either. They don't hate anyone, or fear anyone particularly, they are probably perfectly pleasant to the nice couple running the local post office, they just dont feel like they know the place they grew up in.
Do you really think that's what it's like in the UK now? As someone who has scarpered I find it curious that you feel you can talk for the people who actually live here.
Seems the poll chimes with my own experience of running a Remain stall at weekend. It's Leave.
In 10 days the UK is poised to make a monumental mistake that we will rue for decades.
If and its a huge if, the UK votes to leave in 10 days time I will have zero sympathy for the remain apologists. You've never once made a POSITIVE case for remaining in the EU, not ONCE. Give me FIVE positive reasons to stay in the EU - can you manage that? Its been beyond the remain campaign even to get to ONE in this campaign. Therein alone lies the reason for their campaign being in crisis.
All too true. EU supporters should have been making the + argument for years before this event. Blair and Mandelson tried in their early days.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
That Deutsche bank director will be 20,000 poorer - that's for sure
Guardian "The figures will make grim reading for David Cameron, George Osborne and the Labour party."
Why grim reading for the Labour party? They end up with a new PM, an untested new Govt and massive splits in the Conservative party. The only Labour people upset are the bulk of their MPs but they were unhappy before the referendum and are out of touch with members (on Corbyn) and out of touch with a large part of Labour's voters (about the referendum).
Leave ends the division in the Tory party. If we vote Leave then it is all over, game over. Ken Clarke, Michael Hesseltine and John Major can retire and dream what may have once been but the nation will Leave and the Tories will 100% unite behind that.
The Tory party will be about as divided after a Leave vote as the SNP would be after a Scottish Yes vote.
The SNP would be dead within a decade after a Yes vote. The various factions would have achieved it aim and the big tent would be dead.
He's way off. I'd estimate Leave at a 70% chance...currently.
splutter !
that's rather bullish Rod.
Is it? With Golf Standard polls like this?
well I'm still in the stay cautious bit.
leavers wishing to believe what they are hearing could end up like the SNPers post Indyref. PB needs more alternative views ( but won't get them ) Personally I'm still at the too close to call stage, but Rod has a damned good track record which sort of makes me sit up and take notice.
I too am cautious. Mostly because my track record of picking winning causes is pretty abysmal.
"I hear the Tory and Labour moderates newly mingling in the Remain offices rather get on."
Mr. Meeks, that politicians from different parties often get along when out of the limelight is hardy news, even Yes Minister made such relationships a key point of of one episode and that was about thirty years ago.
Overheard conversation in waiting room at work. Several retired old fellows moaning about the money going to the EU rather than NHS.
Overheard conversation between 3 nurses, one white British, one Indian and one Filipino (all naturalised so eligible to vote). All undecided, but leaning Leave over the subject of immigration.
I think both these memes are hollow, but they are working.
Why do you think remain are so incensed by the £350m figure?
It is a blatent lie and sounds like a lot of money. It is a meme (with immigration) that strikes a chord.
No more a lie than the bilge that remain have been spouting, in fact a lot closer to the truth I bet, it at least has some foundation.
Comments
http://time.com/4364697/brexit-frank-luntz-poll/
A few years ago on here I was accused of being a racist [inc by someone who's written a lot of articles] for saying I felt threatened on Whitechapel tube station. And in Luton for wearing a sleeveless frock. I'm very glad that it's no longer such a taboo to say so.
The whole Leave vote backlash is a damning indictment of the suppression of legitimate concerns.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/06/brexit-likelihood-has-increased-but-remain-is-still-favourite.html/
I'm sure this campaign will be orphaned like Zac's was should it go wrong as it is appearing to do so now though...
" stick it up you Juncker"
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/678207/Pro-European-Union-Lord-Hayward-Vote-Leave-winning-Brexit-savage-David-Cameron
I saw his Telegraph article, but not the Express article. I can't think that anything in the past 5 days will have changed his considered opinion.
If it was migration would not be so high.
All that money finds it's way to the select few.
In the soviet bloc countries the rich are getting richer.
Sound familiar?
*Combined science budget gives more bang for buck (e.g. CERN/ESA/ESO)
*Common standards for trade within the single market
*Benefits relating to tourism/travel, the european medical card thing comes to mind
*More clout in trade negotiations given 500mil population
okay.. I got four.
You are down by 1!
And yes, as admitted at the end! Was running out of ideas
What a hope.
If Labour are going to push this Leave have won.
The UK is an economic basket case in a number of ways - as is France and Italy.
The positive argument for Brexit is that it will allow the Eurozone to coalesce much faster than it otherwise would.
ESA membership includes Norway and Switzerland, which are not in the EU, but not Latvia or Lithuania, which are.
ESO membership includes Brazil, Switzerland, not in the EU, but does not include Ireland, Latvia, many others
Basically, like all clubs, you join CERN or ESO or ESA if you can afford the membership fees. They are nothing to do with the EU.
Why didn't anyone else think of that?
Oh they did. The EU said Foxtrot Oscar.
Which is to be fair what Salmond and the Scot Nats have been saying about the Remain campaign for weeks. He took part with Alan Johnstone on the only TV debate that Remain have actually won arguing a positive case FOR immigration and a positive case FOR peace and co-operation in Europe.
In reference to the gay nightclub shooting, I take it?
that's rather bullish Rod.
We need reform to deal with issues like the West Lothian Question. Those disappear if England is independent.
Plus we will have a proper two party system so there will be even less reason to tinker with silly reforms and even less chance of a hung parliament to lead to an attempt to gerrymander a reform.
At least the Conservative Party doesn't lack courage when they get into power. They knew this would split the party and welfare reform was always guaranteed to get them a good kicking. Labour are all about soundbites and short-term ideas.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5c108032-314f-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product#axzz4BSKDEc00
One interesting line:
"I hear the Tory and Labour moderates newly mingling in the Remain offices rather get on."
Hold your horses, immigration offer only Ed Balls reiterating his view—held since '10—that there should be controls on EU economic migration
'Ang about, Balls is just going solo. Claims he's been saying this since 2010.
Despite accumulating evidence that LEAVE has now drawn level with REMAIN and may now be fractionally ahead, the betting odds are telling a very different tale with the best available LEAVE price from various bookies at 2.75 (aka 7/4) a and the best available REMAIN price from Stan James at 1.53 (aka 8/15).
Were one to stake £100 on both these bets, were LEAVE to win this would produce a profit of £175, whereas were REMAIN to win, the resulting profit would be £53, almost 70% less than the profit from backing LEAVE.
The conclusion has to be that either the polls or the bookies' odds are substantially incorrect and are likely to reconcile much more closely by polling day.
This is where I and probably others need some wise advice from Mike Smithson ..... PLEASE!
Didn't Cameron ask for this and get told to "Go Away! Shoo!"?
They truly are panicking.
But what annoys me is this sense that we should be more angry about these murders because it is a 'hate crime'. I'm sorry, but indiscriminate terrorist attacks are just as bad. Perhaps in future, media outlets like the Guardian won't be so quick to jump to the defence of Islam the next time there is an attack on a city like Paris or London.
leavers wishing to believe what they are hearing could end up like the SNPers post Indyref. PB needs more alternative views ( but won't get them ) Personally I'm still at the too close to call stage, but Rod has a damned good track record which sort of makes me sit up and take notice.
Here's mine:
1. We'll be poorer outside the EU. And the people who will suffer the most are already suffering.
As Mr. Shadsy reportedly said on the news recently, more bets on Leave of late, but they're small in size.
Mr. Thompson, if it's a golf standard poll, are you going to have a punto?
Mike Smithson
5m
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
Biggest hope for REMAIN from ICM polling is that LEAVE vote concentrated amongst C2DEs - the socio-economic group least likely to vote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_XOEVRcoSQ