politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM polls bring fresh pain for Remain
Comments
-
If 15% are postal votes and Leave have a 15% lead then Remain need a lead of about 2.6% on the day, I think.nunu said:
gonna stick my neck out and say leave have atleast a 15% lead in postal vote. The way labour are shitting themselves and the ICM showing 38% labour leave when it was 30% only tells me this.Casino_Royale said:
But what % of the total vote are postal votes? And what lead do Leave have in them?GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
We just don't know.0 -
How many EU vetos can Scotland decide to use at present?HYUFD said:
Yes looks like a few problems for Sturgeon thereCornishBlue said:
The SNP figures are of great interest. I did hope (and it might well be true) that many of those who desire "independence" realise that there's not much point being "independent" (that is, not being part of the UK) if you then become part (in time) of a European superstate.HYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
0 -
That's interesting from an SNP supporter.Alistair said:
All polls show SNP being he most eurosceptic after the Tories. SNP leadership have learnt the lessons of SLab and not keen to call almost half their supporters Nazis.BenedictWhite said:
That's interesting, particularly the SNP numbers. If true Scotland could be close.HYUFD said:
Looking at the ICM phone tables now out Tories back Remain 48% to 47%, Labour voters back Remain 58% to 37%, LDs back Remain 79% to 20%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 46%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 95% to 3%. 2015 Tories back Leave 51% to 44%SeanT said:Remarkable C4 News on the euroref.
"Labour canvassers aren't even bothering to go into white working class wards. There's no point."
No point?? They've abandoned 25% of the UK vote, in one go.
UKIP are already 95% OUT, the Tories are mainly OUT.
Who exactly are they relying on, to vote in favour of REMAIN? Middle class Irish?
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
Does Brexit make Sindy more or less likely or no difference in your view?0 -
Now that the electoral register has closed, has any number been published on the size of the electorate for the referendum?0
-
I wonder if the Tory and Labour moderates will do a deal? It's not just on PB. I have noticed in my office that no-one talks – or even cares – about how anyone voted in 2015 anymore. They simply care whether you are in or out.HYUFD said:
If Remain win, which would be a narrow win, UKIP will seek to portray themselves as the true champions of the working class as the SNP did in Scotland, with the middle class establishment parties again split 3 ways who knows what could happen?Jobabob said:
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.HYUFD said:
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotlandasjohnstone said:
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of borderHYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.0 -
Where do you live?Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
0 -
Empty, suicidist rhetoric from this cultural Marxist.williamglenn said:
"Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton 54s54 seconds agoRodCrosby said:
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.williamglenn said:
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."RodCrosby said:
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."rottenborough said:
Eh? This guy was born in New York.williamglenn said:Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
How will HRC respond to this?
Our diversity isn’t a liability in the fight against terrorism. It’s an asset. It makes us stronger."0 -
South Manchester.RoyalBlue said:
Where do you live?Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.0 -
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?0 -
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.
0 -
Problem is that the ECJ (and by implication the EU) seems in favour of tax avoiders and ruled the UKs tax laws out of order because they don't allow the shifting of profits to low tax EU countries costing us billions.Danny565 said:
I think Remain's best hope of keeping Labour voters on board was trying to make it an anti-establishment campaign of their own. I.e. "stop your bosses ripping you off with the workers rights that the EU gives". "The EU is tough on tax avoidance, so you can stop rich bastards squirrelling their money away in tax havens and ripping you off". Maybe even a dose of US-bashing thrown in: "Donald Trump is coming, so a strong EU is the only chance to keep him in check".RealBritain said:The Labour end campaign should have exclusively partly focused on the cost to labour rights from the beginning. This has the most traction with working-class voters, and some are in for the most almighty shock.
Part of the reason this hasn't happened is that Blairites have usually distanced themselves from this kind of politics, while the Corbynists, the natural home for this kind of campaigning, are too conflicted about the EU as a structure to have initiated it first.
That would've been far from guaranteed to work, of course, since it still wouldn't have had any answers to the #1 issue of immigration, but it would've had a better chance than this farce of urging the working-classes to have solidarity with mega-rich businessmen, or the vacuous slogans about Britain being an "outward-facing country".0 -
I beg to differ. The referendum is not dividing the country. It is revealing a divide that has been worsening for years. Healing cannot & will not take place until someone - some party actually stands up for the people who've been ignored & reviled all these years.Jobabob said:
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.HYUFD said:
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotlandasjohnstone said:
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of borderHYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
0 -
The vote will be heavily polarised between the haves and have nots.Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
That's why i find it difficult to take anecdotes seriously, because the chances are if you are a leave supporter you will be surrounded by leavers. If you are a remainer chances are you will be surrounded by remainers.0 -
Evening all
Back from ten days on Corfu with Mrs Stodge - little or no Internet and I did promise the aforementioned no contributions to PB.
For more immediate thoughts, it's the opening day of Royal Ascot tomorrow and my early thoughts in the big races as follows:
2.30: ESOTERIQUE
3.05: THUNDER SNOW
3.45: MECCA'S ANGEL
4.20: THE GURKHA
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".0 -
https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/742430665371590656
And here's the transcript...
https://www.facebook.com/DonaldTrump/posts/10157163861635725:00 -
I can't be bothered to pick out the numbers but try running ABC1 vs C2DE and come back to me and say that this is not dividing on class lines.SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.0 -
"You're shit, and you know you are..."Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Brexit threat to chocolate.
To paraphrase a football chant
"Remain campaign, you're having a laugh"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-364579030 -
By South Manchester do you mean Didsbury-ish then?Cookie said:
South Manchester.RoyalBlue said:
Where do you live?Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
If it's not 90% Remain there then i might just think pigs can fly...0 -
Bitter Tory in-fighting as Boris Johnson says David Cameron’s Remain campaign is ‘panicked’ by Brexit poll lead
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/1277595/bitter-tory-in-fighting-as-boris-johnson-says-david-camerons-remain-campaign-is-panicked-by-brexit-poll-lead0 -
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
0 -
Not enough. I want permanent UK sovereign control. None of this patsy time limited stuff. Now I accept there will be migration and in all likelihood in biggish numbers ( probably significantly more than 100K). But I want people I can sack directly by putting a X in a box to control it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.0 -
I think there may be something in that, I've anecdotally found many more people saying they'll vote Remain when in the first weeks the only people talking about it seemed to be Leavers, but unless the polls start to push back quite a bit, the increasingly commonplace nature of not insignificant Leave leads makes me think there is something in the current trends. It isn't a one off. And it may take quite a bit of push back to reverse.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence.
0 -
I would still love to see the work panic removed from the vocabularies of the campaigns though. I see a lot of talk of Remain panic, but everything up to this point was labelled as panic already, so it feels less meaningful. It's like IndyRef and how everything, no matter what, was good news for Yes.0
-
Cookie said:
Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
No one in my deeply middle class metropolitan London bubble would ever dream of voting for Leave, perish the thought.
Who knew?0 -
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back Leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other out. That divide is now even bigger than the age one with 18-34s backing Remain 55% to 39% and over 65s backing Leave 54% to 39%SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf0 -
I think it is a matter of education.Many in those socio-economic groups have been consistently failed by the education system and get their information from The Sun,which makes them prey to all sorts of right-wing snake-oil salesmen who have created an easy target to blame for all your ills.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?0 -
Sigh. You are better when you stick to the numbers Rod. Your visceral (and inexplicable) deep hatred for Hillary is undermining your analysis.RodCrosby said:
Empty, suicidist rhetoric from this cultural Marxist.williamglenn said:
"Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton 54s54 seconds agoRodCrosby said:
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.williamglenn said:
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."RodCrosby said:
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."rottenborough said:
Eh? This guy was born in New York.williamglenn said:Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
How will HRC respond to this?
Our diversity isn’t a liability in the fight against terrorism. It’s an asset. It makes us stronger."
Trump is toast.0 -
Not quite! Sale - which is rather less Guardianish and rather more mixed. But still. And it's not just people here; it's colleagues and contemporaries from around the country - but they too all tend to be urban, graduates, etc. Illustrates what a comparatively limited circle I (and presumably many others) live in.brokenwheel said:
By South Manchester do you mean Didsbury-ish then?Cookie said:
South Manchester.RoyalBlue said:
Where do you live?Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
If it's not 90% Remain there then i might just think pigs can fly...0 -
Do you think Cameron may be desperate enough to try this?MarqueeMark said:
"You're shit, and you know you are..."Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Brexit threat to chocolate.
To paraphrase a football chant
"Remain campaign, you're having a laugh"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36457903
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1422243/Blair-sent-in-tanks-after-chilling-threat.html0 -
They are probably being polite and not showing their anger because they know you are for Leave. That's the polite middle class way.SeanT said:
I live in upper middle class London. And my social circle reflects this. i haven't met a single angry REMAINER. Not one. Most people I know are indeed REMAIN, but angry? Nah.Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
If anything I've been struck by the nervous uncertainty, and a general awareness that this is a genuinely difficult decision for everyone.0 -
Just like Brexit was after Obamas intervention we were breathlessly toldJobabob said:
Sigh. You are better when you stick to the numbers Rod. Your visceral (and inexplicable) deep hatred for Hillary is undermining your analysis.RodCrosby said:
Empty, suicidist rhetoric from this cultural Marxist.williamglenn said:
"Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton 54s54 seconds agoRodCrosby said:
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.williamglenn said:
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."RodCrosby said:
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."rottenborough said:
Eh? This guy was born in New York.williamglenn said:Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
How will HRC respond to this?
Our diversity isn’t a liability in the fight against terrorism. It’s an asset. It makes us stronger."
Trump is toast.0 -
QED. Thanks for doing the legwork for me. I've had too much (French) wine to be bothered.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back Leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other out. That divide is now even bigger than the age one with 18-34s backing Remain 55% to 39% and over 65s backing Leave 54% to 39%SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf0 -
You have incredible sang froid. It's a shame there aren't more people like you active on the Left.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
I still expect Remain to win in the end.
Canvassing alert
More good news this evening. A small but definite Leave lead in a relatively prosperous set of streets.
0 -
Well that's all-right then...welshowl said:
No but in fairness lava bread can be one of five a day.BenedictWhite said:
Not a vegetarian then?welshowl said:
Because only if we leave we'll garnish them all with lava bread and eat them alive out of coracles whilst reciting Max Boyce Live at Treorchy. That's why.Razedabode said:
The stuff from Osborne is crazy - why Europeans couldn't come to visit Wales is beyond me.Casino_Royale said:
In the few minutes since he's posted that, it's fair to say that he hasn't been met with a wholly positive response.TCPoliticalBetting said:Desperate stuff.
George Osborne @George_Osborne
Welsh tourism industry employs 130k people & relies on EU tourists for 68% of international visits
Although it is Twitter.
0 -
Some people will make a mint from Brexit. Lawyers have years of lucrative fun in front of them.SeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
0 -
I read it that with the Blairites pushed out of Labour and the orange bookers bereft in the tiny Lib Dem core, they seek solace with the soon to be homeless tory europhiles. Wishful thinking on their part but good riddance.stodge said:
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".
0 -
Whether it is triggered next week, or not, I now think our exit from the EU is inevitable. At least half of the Remainers I meet are v.reluctant, and Leave would win thumpingly if there was an alternate deal already on the table.SeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
The die is cast.0 -
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.0 -
Not really comparable, in any way.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Just like Brexit was after Obamas intervention we were breathlessly toldJobabob said:
Sigh. You are better when you stick to the numbers Rod. Your visceral (and inexplicable) deep hatred for Hillary is undermining your analysis.RodCrosby said:
Empty, suicidist rhetoric from this cultural Marxist.williamglenn said:
"Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton 54s54 seconds agoRodCrosby said:
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.williamglenn said:
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."RodCrosby said:
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."rottenborough said:
Eh? This guy was born in New York.williamglenn said:Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
How will HRC respond to this?
Our diversity isn’t a liability in the fight against terrorism. It’s an asset. It makes us stronger."
Trump is toast.
The story of the US race is that Hillary is pulling clear and now even leading in states Democrats would never expect to win. Look at the latest Kansas poll. Kansas.
The polling numbers are there in the public domain for all to see, regardless of what Hillary or Trump has said in some speech or other.0 -
Leftoid bint reporter on Sky accusing Trump of 'exploiting' the outrage.
0 -
You can find exceptions for every rule, there are even some investment bankers who vote Labour and social workers who vote Tory, what you are looking at is the trendSeanT said:
It's not. As the stats show. This is not rich v poor. I know quite a few wealthy LEAVERS. Even in publishing circles.Jobabob said:
I can't be bothered to pick out the numbers but try running ABC1 vs C2DE and come back to me and say that this is not dividing on class lines.SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.0 -
There are exceptions or course, nothing is 100%, but the general demographic breakdown is clear from the numbers. It really is there in black and white.SeanT said:
It's not. As the stats show. This is not rich v poor. I know quite a few wealthy LEAVERS. Even in publishing circles.Jobabob said:
I can't be bothered to pick out the numbers but try running ABC1 vs C2DE and come back to me and say that this is not dividing on class lines.SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.0 -
Aren't you forgetting Purdah??TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.0 -
You do. But the Vow only has to shift about 5% from LEAVE to REMAIN.welshowl said:
Not enough. I want permanent UK sovereign control. None of this patsy time limited stuff. Now I accept there will be migration and in all likelihood in biggish numbers ( probably significantly more than 100K). But I want people I can sack directly by putting a X in a box to control it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.
0 -
The divide is certainly there. C1s also back Remain 50% to 41% while DEs back Leave 53% to 40%Jobabob said:
QED. Thanks for doing the legwork for me. I've had too much (French) wine to be bothered.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back Leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other out. That divide is now even bigger than the age one with 18-34s backing Remain 55% to 39% and over 65s backing Leave 54% to 39%SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf0 -
It comes down to the death of organised labour, and in the case of my Union it's utter uselessness - I really don't know why I pay a sub these days.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.0 -
Yes.welshowl said:
Not enough. I want permanent UK sovereign control. None of this patsy time limited stuff. Now I accept there will be migration and in all likelihood in biggish numbers ( probably significantly more than 100K). But I want people I can sack directly by putting a X in a box to control it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.
I rather think that this will be our last chance to exit 'gracefully'. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the eurocrats aren't pondering measures to forbid referendums like this, which they will bring forward as soon as possible.
If the simple reluctance to allow referendums can be overcome, as it has in this case, they will be obliged to make proper 'regulations' about it.0 -
Very true. Up until now a lot of people have been silenced with the accusation of "waycist".AnneJGP said:
I beg to differ. The referendum is not dividing the country. It is revealing a divide that has been worsening for years. Healing cannot & will not take place until someone - some party actually stands up for the people who've been ignored & reviled all these years.Jobabob said:
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.HYUFD said:
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotlandasjohnstone said:
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of borderHYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
The nature if the politically correct debate where you are not allowed an opinion because it is not allowed means that this anger has not gone away but festered.0 -
And no doubt the Remainers get their education from loony left-wing teachers and Guardianistas, watch the left-wing BBC propaganda machine etc.volcanopete said:
I think it is a matter of education.Many in those socio-economic groups have been consistently failed by the education system and get their information from The Sun,which makes them prey to all sorts of right-wing snake-oil salesmen who have created an easy target to blame for all your ills.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
You see it cuts both ways.0 -
I don't agree. Several people have said unprompted to me on the doorstep that 'Boris talks a lot of sense', and let's not forget how well he did in London with the WWC.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
A very, very large number of voters are utterly sick of mediocre managerialism.0 -
Not true. Around here the haves are split. (the have nots are for leave but there you go)brokenwheel said:
The vote will be heavily polarised between the haves and have nots.Cookie said:Still, though Leave seems improbable from where I'm standing. I've come across so very little evidence in the world I live in of Leave voters, and so many angry Remainers. Of the two possibly-Leave facebook posts I've seen, one is from someone from the WWC and the other is an Indian immigrant (of about five years).
Which, I suppose, shows what an urban, white, middle class world I live in.
That's why i find it difficult to take anecdotes seriously, because the chances are if you are a leave supporter you will be surrounded by leavers. If you are a remainer chances are you will be surrounded by remainers.0 -
These are all exceptions though, I am not saying we are going to have a civil war or a revolution but the best indicator of how someone will vote in the referendum now is not voting intention (outside UKIP and the LDs) or their age but their social classSeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc0 -
imo Unions will only become relevant again when they ditch the political connections and put their members welfare first and foremostMonksfield said:
It comes down to the death of organised labour, and in the case of my Union it's utter uselessness - I really don't know why I pay a sub these days.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.0 -
I hope this is tongue in cheek, but if not you could not be more wrong. People of all classes vote based on perception and experience. The experience of a lot of working people is that life is relentlessly tough - wage stagnation, cuts, rising transport and housing costs etc. The perception is this is being caused in part, at least, by high levels of immigration. In reality and seen from afar it may be a lot more complex than that, but if you are living it day to day you know what you see. I don't blame anyone for voting Leave. I save my contempt and scorn for the chancers who are leading the campaign and who have done as much as anyone to make working people's lives as tough as they are now; and who, as soon as the vote is over, will continue to do so.volcanopete said:
I think it is a matter of education.Many in those socio-economic groups have been consistently failed by the education system and get their information from The Sun,which makes them prey to all sorts of right-wing snake-oil salesmen who have created an easy target to blame for all your ills.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
0 -
No purdah for foreign govts and the EU. There is also the precedent of the Vow in the Sindy election.weejonnie said:
Aren't you forgetting Purdah??TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
0 -
Sturgeon have always talked about Scotland 'being dragged out of the EU' as a trigger for Sindy 2. Would be hilarious if too many SNPers vote Leave and Scotland ends up overall voting for Brexit.Jonathan said:
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.MonikerDiCanio said:
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.HYUFD said:
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotlandasjohnstone said:
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of borderHYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
0 -
Or flip the question around. What percentage of the population would want to join the EU today? 20%? 30% with a brilliant campaign maybe.Casino_Royale said:Whether it is triggered next week, or not, I now think our exit from the EU is inevitable. At least half of the Remainers I meet are v.reluctant, and Leave would win thumpingly if there was an alternate deal already on the table.
The die is cast.
0 -
There will equally be many Old Labour voters in the solidly WWC area I grew up in that will vote Remain. But the point is they are far from the norm.SeanT said:
FFS, you've seen the stats.Jobabob said:
There are exceptions or course, nothing is 100%, but the general demographic breakdown is clear from the numbers. It really is there in black and white.SeanT said:
It's not. As the stats show. This is not rich v poor. I know quite a few wealthy LEAVERS. Even in publishing circles.Jobabob said:
I can't be bothered to pick out the numbers but try running ABC1 vs C2DE and come back to me and say that this is not dividing on class lines.SeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
ABs break 57/38 REMAIN/LEAVE, so 2/5 of ABs are LEAVE.
This is not the stuff of revolution, with the poor lynching the aristos. This is not France in 1789. Robespierre does not stalk the cobbled streets
The comfy middle classes are tending to the status quo (as you'd expect) but certainly not in overwhelming numbers.
0 -
One of the problems the collapse of Liberalism left in its wake was that ambitious Liberals joined both Tory and Labour over time to have a chance of being in power.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I read it that with the Blairites pushed out of Labour and the orange bookers bereft in the tiny Lib Dem core, they seek solace with the soon to be homeless tory europhiles. Wishful thinking on their part but good riddance.stodge said:
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".
The result was we ended up with three variants of the liberal party after the 2005 election.0 -
I've yet to meet anyone who actually talks about Boris unprompted.RoyalBlue said:
I don't agree. Several people have said unprompted to me on the doorstep that 'Boris talks a lot of sense', and let's not forget how well he did in London with the WWC.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
A very, very large number of voters are utterly sick of mediocre managerialism.0 -
And not a few, former, Conservative voters. Mr. Brooke. Cameron played the same game as Blair.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.0 -
Gravitation said:
Sturgeon have always talked about Scotland 'being dragged out of the EU' as a trigger for Sindy 2. Would be hilarious if too many SNPers vote Leave and Scotland ends up overall voting for Brexit.Jonathan said:
Either that or a sizable chunk of the Nationalist vote are backing a shortcut to independence. Sindy follows Brexit as night follows day.MonikerDiCanio said:
The SNP rhetoric about Scotland not having a eurosceptic bone in her body has been exploded.HYUFD said:
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotlandasjohnstone said:
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of borderHYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
It's also unnecessary - if ScotRemain kept the UK in there would be glorious remonstrations until Sexit.0 -
I feel like there could be a rule that whenever someone starts talking about how issue x shows that a political realignment is coming, they are talking nonsense. It seems to wildly underestimate just how well tribal loyalty persists, even when it makes no sense. And I say that as a big fan of Ganesh's writing, he is usually pretty persuasive even when I disagree with him.stodge said:
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".
0 -
Cool. So the working classes are voting leave because their thick? Have you tried campaigning for remain in a working class area, I'm sure they would appreciate your insight.volcanopete said:
I think it is a matter of education.Many in those socio-economic groups have been consistently failed by the education system and get their information from The Sun,which makes them prey to all sorts of right-wing snake-oil salesmen who have created an easy target to blame for all your ills.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?0 -
Oh still a guess but more often than not you will be right. Certainly if you have a middle glass graduate who lives in London they will be highly likely to be Remain while if you have a working class voter who left school at 16 and lives in the Midlands they will be highly likely to back LeaveSeanT said:
Alternatively, there is no sure-fire way of predicting someone's referendum vote from their age, class, party loyalty, background, or anything. You can guess, but it's just that - an informed guess. Quite likely to be wrong.HYUFD said:
These are all exceptions though, I am not saying we are going to have a civil war or a revolution but the best indicator of how someone will vote in the referendum now is not voting intention (outside UKIP and the LDs) or their age but their social classSeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
This is one reason pollsters are struggling.0 -
It's more down to Cameron and Osborne's failure to understand Labour's natural constituency - and that Labour voters will not just vote as a Tory or a half-hearted old Leftie tells them to vote.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
Tory Remain has gone into this campaign fundamentally misreading the Labour vote, who they expected to bail them out whilst they were being abusive to their own natural constituency. A perfect storm of stupid.0 -
Yes, and in the process they all forgot what works under FPTP doesn't work in a referendum.HurstLlama said:
And not a few, former, Conservative voters. Mr. Brooke. Cameron played the same game as Blair.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.0 -
Trouble is that certainty to vote is already factored in to those ICM calculations.HYUFD said:
These are all exceptions though, I am not saying we are going to have a civil war or a revolution but the best indicator of how someone will vote in the referendum now is not voting intention (outside UKIP and the LDs) or their age but their social classSeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
For example, on 10/10, ABs are 83%, C1s 73%, C2s 72%, DEs 70%
There isn't much higher that ABs can go, but there is for the rest.0 -
We should really have split the difference at Maastrict, and gone for associate membership.glw said:
Or flip the question around. What percentage of the population would want to join the EU today? 20%? 30% with a brilliant campaign maybe.Casino_Royale said:Whether it is triggered next week, or not, I now think our exit from the EU is inevitable. At least half of the Remainers I meet are v.reluctant, and Leave would win thumpingly if there was an alternate deal already on the table.
The die is cast.
But that's history now.0 -
Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
0 -
Maybe it will come from Mr Juncker - I doubt if purdah applies to him.weejonnie said:
Aren't you forgetting Purdah??TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.0 -
True. But they have about a week and a bit. And the EU usually moves with the grace and reflexes an arthritic three legged hippo.TCPoliticalBetting said:
You do. But the Vow only has to shift about 5% from LEAVE to REMAIN.welshowl said:
Not enough. I want permanent UK sovereign control. None of this patsy time limited stuff. Now I accept there will be migration and in all likelihood in biggish numbers ( probably significantly more than 100K). But I want people I can sack directly by putting a X in a box to control it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.0 -
In the politicians' defence, the reason they developed into bland party automatons was because it was working. If you feed people bland mush enough they come to like it, or some do at least. Has it taken a unique event like this referendum for people to get sick of it? Perhaps, but i suspect we'll be back to blandness soon enough - we have for a long time rewarded the caution and polished mundanity on offer; if we didn't, they wouldn't have kept offering it.glw said:
That's it. A political class with no ideas, no ambition, no leadership, no courage, simply keeping the plates spinning. Who isn't fed up with this?RoyalBlue said:A very, very large number of voters are utterly sick of mediocre managerialism.
0 -
I cannot see a major realignment but a minor one maybe if Remain win narrowly and Leave voters start to shift to UKIPSeanT said:
In my experience, when someone starts talking hopefully about a "political realignment" it means "their" side is probably going to take a beating, and they are trying, subconsciously, to salvage some emotional consolation from the expected wreckage.kle4 said:
I feel like there could be a rule that whenever someone starts talking about how issue x shows that a political realignment is coming, they are talking nonsense. It seems to wildly underestimate just how well tribal loyalty persists, even when it makes no sense. And I say that as a big fan of Ganesh's writing, he is usually pretty persuasive even when I disagree with him.stodge said:
I see Ganesh in the FT is peddling the old theme of political realignment. Having heard this for the past 35 years, I'll file that under "believe it when I see it".
I remember Southam spouting the exact same stuff when he was predicting a YES win in Sindyref.0 -
Does anyone know of any constituencies or groups of constituencies that together form the local authority areas that will announce results next Thursday?
I'm building a 2015 constituency based model for the referendum but would be interesting to compare to that handy local authority spreadsheet that has been doing the rounds here..0 -
They might have started preparations weeks ago, in which case they might just be in time.welshowl said:
True. But they have about a week and a bit. And the EU usually moves with the grace and reflexes an arthritic three legged hippo.TCPoliticalBetting said:
You do. But the Vow only has to shift about 5% from LEAVE to REMAIN.welshowl said:
Not enough. I want permanent UK sovereign control. None of this patsy time limited stuff. Now I accept there will be migration and in all likelihood in biggish numbers ( probably significantly more than 100K). But I want people I can sack directly by putting a X in a box to control it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.0 -
True but then you could say the same for younger voters tooCasino_Royale said:
Trouble is that certainty to vote is already factored in to those ICM calculations.HYUFD said:
These are all exceptions though, I am not saying we are going to have a civil war or a revolution but the best indicator of how someone will vote in the referendum now is not voting intention (outside UKIP and the LDs) or their age but their social classSeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
For example, on 10/10, ABs are 83%, C1s 73%, C2s 72%, DEs 70%
There isn't much higher that ABs can go, but there is for the rest.0 -
Andrew Cooper strangely quiet on twitter tonight.
Another one for the political chop if Leave win.0 -
you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.0
-
-
My Union has no affiliation - but is still useless as far as I can see. And as a result membership in my workplace has plummeted - hardly surprising when nobody has appeared to try and recruit in person for at least 10 years.Alanbrooke said:
imo Unions will only become relevant again when they ditch the political connections and put their members welfare first and foremostMonksfield said:
It comes down to the death of organised labour, and in the case of my Union it's utter uselessness - I really don't know why I pay a sub these days.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.0 -
She's about 3% ahead on average. The Kansas poll was Zogby, and people laugh at Zogby.Jobabob said:
Not really comparable, in any way.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Just like Brexit was after Obamas intervention we were breathlessly toldJobabob said:
Sigh. You are better when you stick to the numbers Rod. Your visceral (and inexplicable) deep hatred for Hillary is undermining your analysis.RodCrosby said:
Empty, suicidist rhetoric from this cultural Marxist.williamglenn said:
"Hillary Clinton @HillaryClinton 54s54 seconds agoRodCrosby said:
Hopelessly, and more importantly, Trump will eviscerate her in the debates.williamglenn said:
"They enslave women and they murder gays. I don't want them in our country."RodCrosby said:
Trump 'quoted' me, from yesterday: "only because we let the family in, in the first place [from a country where 99% believe in Sharia law]. And we don't need any more of the same."rottenborough said:
Eh? This guy was born in New York.williamglenn said:Trump: The burden is on Hillary Clinton to tell us why she supports letting people into the US who support violence against gays and lesbians.
How will HRC respond to this?
Our diversity isn’t a liability in the fight against terrorism. It’s an asset. It makes us stronger."
Trump is toast.
The story of the US race is that Hillary is pulling clear and now even leading in states Democrats would never expect to win. Look at the latest Kansas poll. Kansas.
The polling numbers are there in the public domain for all to see, regardless of what Hillary or Trump has said in some speech or other.0 -
Although I do note he has (or is trying) to get pictures of women banned from advertising in London.Casino_Royale said:
Ssssht. Didn't you get the memo, Richard?Richard_Tyndall said:
Yep. Shows both courage and leadership. Very good move for trying to unite the capital and reduce tensions as well as just the basic humanity.Casino_Royale said:
Can't help but agree with that.SeanT said:Must say I admire Sadiq Khan for going to that gay pride march/party in Soho, in honour of Orlando.
Given his background that has to be hard, it is also brave. Members of his community will hate him for it. Some will want to hurt him.
I was perhaps too critical of him before the vote. He may be OK. This is certainly courageous.
We're supposed to be bigots.0 -
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Branson would now be ABs, both of course back Remainblairf said:you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
0 -
Maybe as a result of their arrogance and incompetence they failed to plan for a Leave eventuality.kle4 said:
They might have started preparations weeks ago, in which case they might just be in time.welshowl said:
True. But they have about a week and a bit. And the EU usually moves with the grace and reflexes an arthritic three legged hippo.TCPoliticalBetting said:
You do. But the Vow only has to shift about 5% from LEAVE to REMAIN.welshowl said:
Not enough. I want permanent UK sovereign control. None of this patsy time limited stuff. Now I accept there will be migration and in all likelihood in biggish numbers ( probably significantly more than 100K). But I want people I can sack directly by putting a X in a box to control it.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Which is why it probably is down to:-CornishBlue said:
168 hours to save the EU!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.
Good luck with that - especially considering it's the EU we're talking about here, not exactly the speediest of decision making!
1. A straight payment from Germany to increase our rebate.
2. Some temporary deal with all countries for an emergency break on EU migration capped at say 100k pa for 4 years.0 -
As Marquee Mark has pointed out Remain has just screwed up its estmates on what the Labour vote will do. let's face it Stuart Rose said wages would rise, the housing anyone can work out for themselves and the public spending is spin as there is no money.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
But this is not some great Tory persuasion imo, it's simply the base numbers were wrong from the start.0 -
Diddums.EPG said:
Have you seen a woman against Trump yet that you haven't used a gendered insult about? Last time, it was Clinton as a witch.RodCrosby said:Leftoid bint reporter on Sky accusing Trump of 'exploiting' the outrage.
The reporter on Sky is a biased, brainwashed moron. Trump may be wrong, extreme, insincere, and a host of other things, but he is running for the highest office in the land, and those are questions for the American people to decide, after hearing what he has to say. After an outrage like yesterday's, what exactly is he supposed to talk about? The weather?
Why exactly is a British 'reporter' - a guest in the USA - declaiming that this man is 'exploiting' the tragedy?
She's obviously not a reporter at all. Just a London, leftist multiculturist who can't conceive there is anyone in the world who might hold a different opinion, and it's her job to stick the knife in. If anyone was 'exploiting' the tragedy it was her, hijacking it to throw in her unwanted, pointless 2c, with gross unprofessionalism...0 -
I will only repeat what I have said before.. Don't trust the polls... ANY of them.0
-
I am sure Leave will be horrified if Mr Juncker makes a vow. < /sarc>AnneJGP said:
Maybe it will come from Mr Juncker - I doubt if purdah applies to him.weejonnie said:
Aren't you forgetting Purdah??TCPoliticalBetting said:
Time is running out for a Vow and they are now only addressing about 80% of the possible votes. Therefore it has to be:-GarethoftheVale2 said:
The problem with a "Vow" is that it may be too late. Many postal votes will already have been sent back, while other people will be on holiday or watching the football.Luckyguy1983 said:I love the feeling of Leave in the air, and it's hard not to be affected by it, but I simply don't believe Leave are on course to win. What I see is the Remain campaign and its supporters panicking or appearing to panic - part of that may be true; another part is likely to be heavily put on to mobilise the cohorts of new supporters it just gerrymandered into existence. I don't really trust certainty to vote - a lot of those voters will say '100%' as what else would you say? And lastly I don't trust polls squeezing don't knows to ridiculously low levels - what's the point?
I'm delighted Leave seem to be in with a chance (though it means I will be even more devastated if we lose), but it's way to early to say Leave is winning. When a real Vow, with genuine red meat attached, is brought forth, I will know Remain are genuinely worried, not just trying to get their vote out.
1. Agreed.
2. Communicated prior to 23rd.
Added to which is the fact that the referendum is now competing with many news items for media time and space.
Tomorrow is one of the last 9 days. If Agreement takes a day and Communication another day, then there are just 7 days to act.0 -
A's are tiny and electorally irrelevant. And no, a huge chunk of entrepeneurs are classed as own-account workers so C2. B's are the nomenclature, and the polling reflects that.HYUFD said:
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Bransonwould now be ABs, both of course back Remainblairf said:you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
0 -
Filed under No Shit Sherlock....Casino_Royale said:0 -
You could, but your argument was on social class.HYUFD said:
True but then you could say the same for younger voters tooCasino_Royale said:
Trouble is that certainty to vote is already factored in to those ICM calculations.HYUFD said:
These are all exceptions though, I am not saying we are going to have a civil war or a revolution but the best indicator of how someone will vote in the referendum now is not voting intention (outside UKIP and the LDs) or their age but their social classSeanT said:
Yeah, but that's still nearly 40% of professionals going LEAVE. Not quite received opinion, and certainly not class war.HYUFD said:
Yes but the 57% 38% margin by which ABs back Remain would be a landslide for Remain and the 67% 29% margin by which C2s back leave would be a landslide for Leave, it is only 50% 50% because they cancel each other outSeanT said:I don't buy this pro-EU middle class v sceptic working class bollocks. As PB itself shows, this issue cuts every demographic in two.
Yes the ABs are tending to REMAIN, but it's hardly overwhelming - 60/40 at most? Likewise there are more than a few working class lefties who will loyally vote IN.
In truth the entire country is split 50/50. Which is as it should be, as this is a painfully difficult decision for anyone with a brain, with good arguments on both sides. So this shows that we, as a nation, have a brain.
Yay.
https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/13-Jun.pdf
It's worth reading that article by Hayward, the Tory election brainiac, where he says he keeps meeting unexpected LEAVERS - bankers and London lawyers etc
For example, on 10/10, ABs are 83%, C1s 73%, C2s 72%, DEs 70%
There isn't much higher that ABs can go, but there is for the rest.0 -
Well an 'entrepreneur' who earns £20,000 a year is basically C2 anyway isn't he, he is hardly in Branson or Sugar's league who are both billionairesblairf said:
A's are tiny and electorally irrelevant. And no, a huge chunk of entrepeneurs are classed as own-account workers so C2. B's are the nomenclature, and the polling reflects that.HYUFD said:
AB includes managers and executives so plenty of entrepreneurs like Lord Sugar and Sir Richard Bransonwould now be ABs, both of course back Remainblairf said:you all know the ABC1 stuff is nonsense right? A's are like 3%, and B's (~20%) are dominated by public sector professionals (teachers, social workers etc.) if you want real insight into the views of entrepeneurs you definitely don't want to use NRS social grades.
0 -
Yeah but has he read out "The snake" yetRodCrosby said:
Diddums.EPG said:
Have you seen a woman against Trump yet that you haven't used a gendered insult about? Last time, it was Clinton as a witch.RodCrosby said:Leftoid bint reporter on Sky accusing Trump of 'exploiting' the outrage.
The reporter on Sky is a biased, brainwashed moron. Trump may be wrong, extreme, insincere, and a host of other things, but he is running for the highest office in the land, and those are questions for the American people to decide, after hearing what he has to say. After an outrage like yesterday's, what exactly is he supposed to talk about? The weather?
Why exactly is a British 'reporter' - a guest in the USA - declaiming that this man is 'exploiting' the tragedy?
She's obviously not a reporter at all. Just a London, leftist multiculturist who can't conceive there is anyone in the world who might hold a different opinion, and it's her job to stick the knife in. If anyone was 'exploiting' the tragedy it was her, hijacking it to throw in her unwanted, pointless 2c, with gross unprofessionalism... ? 0 -
No but he's just revoked press credentials for the Washington Post...Pulpstar said:
Yeah but has he read out "The snake" yetRodCrosby said:
Diddums.EPG said:
Have you seen a woman against Trump yet that you haven't used a gendered insult about? Last time, it was Clinton as a witch.RodCrosby said:Leftoid bint reporter on Sky accusing Trump of 'exploiting' the outrage.
The reporter on Sky is a biased, brainwashed moron. Trump may be wrong, extreme, insincere, and a host of other things, but he is running for the highest office in the land, and those are questions for the American people to decide, after hearing what he has to say. After an outrage like yesterday's, what exactly is he supposed to talk about? The weather?
Why exactly is a British 'reporter' - a guest in the USA - declaiming that this man is 'exploiting' the tragedy?
She's obviously not a reporter at all. Just a London, leftist multiculturist who can't conceive there is anyone in the world who might hold a different opinion, and it's her job to stick the knife in. If anyone was 'exploiting' the tragedy it was her, hijacking it to throw in her unwanted, pointless 2c, with gross unprofessionalism... ?0 -
Why should that be scary? Every election from 1935 till recently broke down on class lines.Jobabob said:
The way the poll is breaking along class lines is very scary. We are seeing a realignment of politics along said lines, which will blow nobody, and certainly not the country, much good. Educated moderate middle class vs working class. Europhile vs eurosceptic.HYUFD said:
Yes it is middle class v working class voters now in England and Scotlandasjohnstone said:
On those kind of numbers, the overall remain lead in Scotland is pretty low. Implies the WWC voters who transferred Lab to SNP are coming to same conclusion as those south of borderHYUFD said:The online numbers have Tories backing Leave 49% to 47%, Labour voters backing Remain 58% to 38%, LDs back Remain 80% to 19%, 2015 SNP voters back Remain 52% to 47%, 2015 Green voters back Remain 71% to 19% and UKIP voters back Leave 97% to 2%. 2015 Tories back Leave 52% to 44%
The point @Paul_Bedforshire makes about the Margot Leadbetter tendency is sound. In many ways, Paul and Polly are both right. The referendum is dividing the country in a visceral way. The damage will take years to heal.
It's not so much class, though, as values. Middle class and wealthy voters in London will go massively remain. But middl class and wealthy voters in Bedfordshire will support Leave.0 -
I doubt anyone has heard of Stuart Rose. But generally, I agree: life is tough, Leave is a vote for change.Alanbrooke said:
As Marquee Mark has pointed out Remain has just screwed up its estmates on what the Labour vote will do. let's face it Stuart Rose said wages would rise, the housing anyone can work out for themselves and the public spending is spin as there is no money.SouthamObserver said:
Yep, a lot of this is Labour's failure. Taking the working class vote for granted was unforgiveable. The latest absurdity was to allow the referendum to be framed as a Tory civil war, even if it is. If it's blue v blue that natural sympathy of the Labour-leaning voter will be with those opposing the government. Throw in claims about higher wages, cheaper housing and more public spending, and it's no surprise Leave is winning Labour votes. Unfortunately, Boris and co have no interest in delivering. They are saying what is necessary to win, nothing more. Then it'll be back to the dumping as Corbyn Labour looks on, irrelevant and unelectable.Alanbrooke said:
I can go with that, what I don;t get is your constant posting about Gove and Boris leading people astray.SouthamObserver said:
I have a number of times: working people have been dumped on for years and they see this vote as an opportunity to change things. It's completely understandable.Alanbrooke said:
You seem to be ignoring that it's the C2DEs who are the strongest supporters of Leave,SouthamObserver said:
Let's see how long this sudden Tory Leave regard for the working class they have spent six years dumping on lasts.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Come of it. The internationalists are more tribal. They regard ABs in other countries as part of their elite little tribe and think the CDEs in their own countries are vulgar untermenschen scumbags.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Yes, that's part of the reason for the mutual incomprehension. Leavers are nationalists, who place a high value such things as sovereignty and tradition. Remainers are internationalists, who tend to put more value on individual well-being and cross-border collaboration with their peers. Hence the accusation of treason from the Leavers and the bemused responses of the Remainers. Leavers are tribal; Remainers are cooperative.kle4 said:The problem with the positive reasons for remaining in the EU is that to a lot of people in this country those positive reasons are negatives, like breaking down borders.
Maybe you'd like to address why that is ?
Frankly I think most C2DE voters don't give a toss about Gove and see Boris as a figure of fun.
This is down to a failure of Labour to understand their own natural constituency for the last 2 decades and the Labour view that their voters will just do as their told.
Maybe that Blairite nonsense that they have nowhere else to go might die a long over due death.
But this is not some great Tory persuasion imo, it's simply the base numbers were wrong from the start.
0
