Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a batch of phone polls on the way LEAVE punters might

1468910

Comments

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    alex. said:

    You're quite right. Weighing against that is that the UK runs a considerable trade deficit with the EU. Much of our EU trade is weighted quite heavily to the original EU8. In our top 25 trading partners you'll find the very important ones are Germany, France, Netherlands (bit deceptive that one - Rotterdam etc), Eire. Important: Belgium, Italy, Spain, Sweden. Notable: Poland, Norway (OK, it's not in the EU). The USA and China are our really important non-EU partners. None of this is surprising.

    I vacillate between thinking they'll be bloody-minded pour encourager les autres, or pragmatic, because, damn, we're among their largest export markets (e.g. we're #3 on Germany's list).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    perdix said:

    The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .

    I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.

    To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
  • perdix said:

    The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .

    It wasn't an ambition though was it. Treasury policy was to max out immigration to clear the deficit.

    Thats dishonest in my book
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    That doesn't contradict being mentally unwell, particularly delusions of grandeur.
    Isn't that the case for all adherents of ISIS?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited June 2016
    perdix said:

    The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .

    The 2010 manifesto said: So we will take steps to take net migration back to the levels of the 1990s –- tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865


    Seems a fair analogy.

    We have to pay protection money to keep on trading with the EU, and are threatened with dire outcomes if we want to leave.

    If this was a housing estate, we would have the government complaining about gang culture.

    If this was a marriage, the courts would be stepping in.

    But as it's the EU, that's alright then...
    Been saying this for months. It's a protection racket pure and simple.

    You wanna trade well pay up and we will look, after you ( that's a laugh as well). If you don't pay we will send the boys round and smash your windows in. Oh and for good measure we have on the payroll that guy that supplies you from the next town who says you will be at the back of the queue for any deliveries and well charge you 3 times as much if you refuse.

    Yeah great club to belong to.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    perdix said:

    The standard of debate on here is pretty low. Cameron did not make a dishonest claim about immigration. Read the manifesto - the proposed limit was an ambition .

    "We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"

    I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    The Russian hooligans showed how easy it is to get into Europe undetected....
    Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    It is unlikely the EU would immediately start a trade war with its major export market. Chances are, however great a Leave win, nothing much will happen in the short term.
    Agreed. There will be no trade war. That's not the EU's style. They will simply ignore us. It's what they do with Switzerland who have been in the doghouse for years.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    RobD said:

    Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
    Security at the stadium was obviously lax given that the Russians were able to smuggle in flares and fireworks.
  • Estobar said:

    It's the west's achilles heel. Because no-one here any longer believes in God we think nowhere else does.

    Actually, they do. They see it as their mission to bring down the decadent lifestyle of the west. They genuinely believe every single syllable of the Qur'an was dictated to the prophet through the angel Jibril from the mouth of Allah. They are totally opposed to most of what you and I stand for and many of them will stop at nothing to change the west forever.

    Call it mental illness if that makes you happier.
    Hitchens has been banging on about the role of cannabis caused mental illness and paranoia in this. Just about everyone from high school killings via lee rigby killers and bataclan has had a history of cannabis use.
  • HYUFD said:

    Most Americans are descended from immigrants unless they are American Indians
    American Indians? What are they?
  • EstobarEstobar Posts: 558
    And now cue all the 'he wasn't really a Muslim' memes beloved of youth social media.

    When will we wake up?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    alex. said:

    They play it twice when we play Liechtenstein.
    Correct, though with different words
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    George Soros is buying gold...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    HYUFD said:

    It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
    They could just play two verses of it.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2016
    On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    tlg86 said:

    Security at the stadium was obviously lax given that the Russians were able to smuggle in flares and fireworks.
    OK, a fair point (although I still think DecrepitJohnL was referring to automatic weapons). I also read on here that there was no police presence inside the stadium!
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    RodCrosby said:

    The right sort of immigrants, though.
    I assume you mean "white" because you clearly can't mean "peaceful"
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Roger said:

    Interestingly if tyson said exactly what he's saying here on 'Any Questions' or 'Question Time' he'd be cheered to the rafters. Does it ever strike anyone that perhaps this site is overloaded with right wing reactionaries and tyson is more reflective of the mainstream?
    The reason he is getting so tetchy is that he is wondering whether he actually is the mainstream.

    The centre might not be where he thinks it is.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Rod are you... shall we say... racialist?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    There is no evidence he will keep you safe, his travel ban on Muslims would not have stopped this shooting, the shooter was a US citizen
    As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
  • RobD said:

    Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
    If you can get fireworks and flare guns into (a) Europe and (b) the stadium you can also get AK47s and the like in.

    Does this really have to be explained in words of one syllable?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    tlg86 said:

    "We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands"

    I think saying "maintain" rather than "keep" would have been better. The word keep implies it's a promise. Of course, they were more than happy for the press to report it as a promise.
    The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Yes I do think we could put ourselves in a better position economically because I think the most likely outcome from Brexit will be an EEA relationship. As such our trade with the EU will not be affected whilst we will be free to pursue our own trade agreements with the rest of the world. We will also be able to take part in the decision making process which sets the rules for world trade. Something we are currently unable to do directly.

    I also strongly believe that Brexit will lead to a much quicker move to political union in the EU which will help solve the problems the Eurozone has been having with its own economic union. In the medium to long term this will benefit trade as a whole for the world economy.

    As an aside - and it is not directly linked to this conversation right now - I dislike the continual reference to GDP instead of to GDP per capita. It is quite possible for GDP to increase whilst GDP per capita drops and that is certainly not good for a country.
    Your last point first - addressed in my post to @MarkHopkins.

    Your other points (although we have rehearsed this many times): despite my assumption of great pragmatism by rEU if we leave, I am not sure it they would accept us as an EEA membership. Looking at the emergency brake, for example, it is frought with problems a) to use permanently; and b) to apply it to the UK.

    At ever stage (every three months) they would be looking for reasons for us to stop using it. That is not the situation of a grown up country.

    I am also cautious about the length that WTO discussions take - if you think dealing with 27 countries is tricky..
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....

    Semi-automatic. Civilians can't get full automatic weapons even in the US.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    HYUFD said:

    Correct, though with different words
    It was quite funny when we played them a few years back. The crowd were presumably all geared up towards the standard boo-ing of the opposition national anthem and found themselves trying to remember the words of the second verse ;)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Governor Rick Scott to speak shortly...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    If you can get fireworks and flare guns into (a) Europe and (b) the stadium you can also get AK47s and the like in.

    Does this really have to be explained in words of one syllable?
    I agree the border is porous, but fireworks? You can buy those in shops!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Tyson's a self-harming fat cat.
    I've only just finished collecting all the spat dummies and putting all the toys back in the pram from the Tyson meltdown last night.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    alex. said:

    On a completely random unrelated question - does anyone know what the £70(?)k bank deposit guarantee applies to. Is it just savings accounts or does it extend to other financial products - fixed term bonds etc?

    http://www.fscs.org.uk/what-we-cover/products/banks-building-societies/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    Do they threaten you if you consider Leaving?
    Yes. They say - if you leave you can't come in here and have the subsidised claret.
  • RobD said:

    They could just play two verses of it.
    Verse 3 is reserved for matches against Scotland?

    I will get my coat.....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    RobD said:

    The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
    Whatever, I didn't vote Tory so couldn't care less. That the Tories didn't make this abundantly clear 12 months ago is their own problem and chickens are coming home to roost.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FF43 said:

    I was being polite to Leave, which is possibly the most dishonest political campaign I have been subjected to. More so than the Yes Scotland campaign in 2014, which itself was a dodgy affair.

    To be clear I am talking about the campaigns themselves, not the choices, which are reasonable ones.
    It's not even the most dishonest campaign in this referendum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Miss Plato, no, but according to the Honest Trailer on ScreenJunkies, it's, perhaps surprisingly, the highest grossing superhero film of the last 10 years or so.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Oh no. Must leave for a while. Looking forward to picking it up later.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scott: "clearly an act of terror"
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Freggles said:

    I assume you mean "white" because you clearly can't mean "peaceful"
    It's not a colour issue for most, I would imagine, but a matter of religion. People are wary of Muslims. And it's not a phobia, because the fear is - in fact - a rational one.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,592
    RobD said:

    The word keep may imply it is a promise, but the word two words after that certainly clarifies things.
    Regardless, they've clearly broken the promise to act with that as an ambition. There has been no action which could credibly achieve their ambition, and Cameron now freely admits he thinks achieving this 'ambition' would be catostrophic.

    It's simply not an ambition of theirs and clearly never was.

  • Semi-automatic. Civilians can't get full automatic weapons even in the US.
    When I was in Bratislava in 2008 I got to have a go on an AK47.
    That certainly had a working full auto mode.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    It's not a colour issue for most, I would imagine, but a matter of religion. People are wary of Muslims. And it's not a phobia, because the fear is - in fact - a rational one.
    I'm just saying, if I were a native American I'd have a bad view of Christianity
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    John_M said:

    http://www.fscs.org.uk/what-we-cover/products/banks-building-societies/
    One thing to note - the liability is per organisation per person - so if you have accounts with related organisations the £70,000 applies overall.

    BTW - since the figure is actually based on Euros, it is likely to be increased to £80,000 pretty soon and no doubt some Remainers are expecting it to increase to £100,000 or more.

    So if you want greater cover and you are a Remainer and you believe your doom-laden forecasts - Vote Brexit!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    Didn't see them spraying England fans with automatic weapons, but I wasn't paying that much attention....
    The most worrying thing about the Panorama documentary on the background to Paris attacks was that there are already cells in Europe who have access to the weaponry.

    The Paris attackers phoned up and got them delivered. There was another example of a guy who got arrested because he couldn't go through with it, but it was a similar deal, go here, phone up and car left on such and such a street filled with weaponry / explosives.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    maaarsh said:

    Regardless, they've clearly broken the promise to act with that as an ambition. There has been no action which could credibly achieve their ambition, and Cameron now freely admits he thinks achieving this 'ambition' would be catostrophic.

    It's simply not an ambition of theirs and clearly never was.
    Yeah, it was an utterly stupid ambition, I think based off a gaffe in a radio interview wasn't it? (Or am I thinking of some other wonderful government policy.. titters)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    tlg86 said:

    Whatever, I didn't vote Tory so couldn't care less. That the Tories didn't make this abundantly clear 12 months ago is their own problem and chickens are coming home to roost.
    Cared enough to comment... *innocent face* :p
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Miss Plato, no, but according to the Honest Trailer on ScreenJunkies, it's, perhaps surprisingly, the highest grossing superhero film of the last 10 years or so.

    Wow - 10yrs?!?!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RodCrosby said:

    Big move to Trump on BF...

    Still longer than when I backed him 3 weeks ago.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    weejonnie said:

    One thing to note - the liability is per organisation per person - so if you have accounts with related organisations the £70,000 applies overall.

    BTW - since the figure is actually based on Euros, it is likely to be increased to £80,000 pretty soon and no doubt some Remainers are expecting it to increase to £100,000 or more.

    So if you want greater cover and you are a Remainer and you believe your doom-laden forecasts - Vote Brexit!
    Surely if we leave the EU we can set the level to be whatever we want? I thought it was convenient that the pound strengthened at just the right time to mean our limit fell from £85k to £75k to prevent our banks from having a competitive advantage.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RobD said:

    I agree the border is porous, but fireworks? You can buy those in shops!
    I love this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=biAVdBLbZJM
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Miss Plato, I forget the precise time frame, but I'm pretty sure it's back to when Iron Man kicked off the current glut. Video's here:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qIRtFE6aIc
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    FF43 said:

    Agreed. There will be no trade war. That's not the EU's style. They will simply ignore us. It's what they do with Switzerland who have been in the doghouse for years.
    This would be Switzerland, the country with the highest living standard in the world ? I think we would do with a bit more ignoring if that is what happens!
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    tlg86 said:

    Surely if we leave the EU we can set the level to be whatever we want? I thought it was convenient that the pound strengthened at just the right time to mean our limit fell from £85k to £75k to prevent our banks from having a competitive advantage.
    That will be for two years of course - but yes - we could then set it at our own level - assuming the Government repealed or amended the appropriate legislation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    RobD said:

    Cared enough to comment... *innocent face* :p
    I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.

    However, this business of saying that the policy is just an "ambition" and that the voters voted for it so "what are they complaining about" is contributing to the contempt in which the public hold politicians.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    weejonnie said:

    As has been mentioned - it would have stopped his parents.
    No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,300
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wow - 10yrs?!?!
    I know what ScreenJunkies said, but they exaggerated.

    BoxOfficeMojo rankings to date
    * 9th biggest Comic Book Adaptation
    * 9th biggest Superhero Movie
    * 2nd biggest Superhero Origin Story

    "Captain America - Civil War" has already overtaken it.

    http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=deadpool2016.htm
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Mir Seddique, father of gunman Omar Mateen, has said the attack "has nothing to do with religion."

    He said his son had recently lost his tempter after seeing a gay couple embracing in Miami, which he say may have led him to carry out the massacre at gay nightclub Pulse.

    "He saw two men kissing each other in front of his wife and kid and he got very angry," Mr Seddique said.

    Nothing to see here, move along.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    HYUFD said:


    No it would not as it would not have been retrospective, short of interning every Muslim in the US, clearly against the constitution, Trump's policy would not have stopped this shooter
    They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RodCrosby said:

    Scott: "clearly an act of terror"

    no fucking shit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.

    Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    tlg86 said:



    I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.

    However, this business of saying that the policy is just an "ambition" and that the voters voted for it so "what are they complaining about" is contributing to the contempt in which the public hold politicians.

    That's fair. I think it is okay for politicians to lay out the direction of travel, without giving firm promises, but it does have to be carefully worded to make it clear it isn't a commitment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    edited June 2016
    Mr. Viewcode, to be fair, I remembered incorrectly.

    It's the second highest grossing R-rated film ever (apparently only after Passion of the Christ), but did beat quite a lot of the recent superhero films.

    So... my mistake, rather than theirs.

    Mr. Floater, I wonder why he attacked gays rather than pork butchers, brewers or razorblade salesmen.

    Edited extra bit: scratch that. There tend not to be bars dedicated to razorblade salesmen.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    RobD said:

    They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
    If a few of those Gay people had had guns then maybe more of them would have lived.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited June 2016
    Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.

    I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?

    http://i.imgur.com/E4zbZPv.jpg (Page 1)
    http://i.imgur.com/Yrk0Uqo.jpg (Page 2)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tlg86 said:

    I appreciate that politicians don't always tell the voters the full story. For example, Sadiq Khan has limited his promise to freeze ticket prices to monthly and annual season tickets. The public expect that sort of thing, though they may not like it.
    No, he excluded season tickets and daily/weekly caps.

    That is to say, he excluded probably 90% of commuters.

    To say the public don't like it is a significant understatement.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    weejonnie said:

    If a few of those Gay people had had guns then maybe more of them would have lived.
    What a solution!!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,407
    Sean_F said:

    We seem to trade more successfully with those nations with whom we do not share a Single Market than with those with whom we do. Our trade with non-EU nations is broadly in balance, whereas with EU nations, we have a massive deficit. It's therefore unclear to me what the benefits of the Single Market are to this country, or what there is to fear if we don't form part of it after leaving the EU.

    Leave the EU, and reduce the Trade Deficit.

    Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Roger said:

    Doesn't work like that. Countries will just become more protectionist to protect their own workers. They can't within the EU but they will when we're outside. It's only what we're planning to do. Keep out EU workers to protect our own
    Delay in negotiating access to UK markets will hasten the death of the EU. Their call....
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    It confirms the ridiculous notion of having God Save the Queen as the English anthem, England should have Jerusalem and NI Danny Boy, GSTQ should be saved for GB teams at the Olympics and the British Lions and events in the presence of a royal
    Jerusalem is out because of its Christian connotations (even though Jesus strolling across the dales does not actually feature in the bible): at least with GSTQ people can fudge which God is being called upon. And Danny Boy is hardly a rousing, up-tempo number; it is even more of a dirge than GSTQ.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Indigo said:

    Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.

    I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?

    http://i.imgur.com/E4zbZPv.jpg (Page 1)
    http://i.imgur.com/Yrk0Uqo.jpg (Page 2)

    Downgraded to an ambition in the 2015 version ;) I'm guessing it won't appear in 2020!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,300

    Mr. Viewcode, to be fair, I remembered incorrectly.

    It's the second highest grossing R-rated film ever (apparently only after Passion of the Christ), but did beat quite a lot of the recent superhero films.

    So... my mistake, rather than theirs.

    No need to apologise: "Deadpool" wildly overperformed at the box office... :)
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    RobD said:

    What a solution!!!
    My friend emigrated to California a while ago, he's a very liberal guy.

    Saw a man pull a gun on a theif trying to steal from an old lady.

    Now a convert to gun ownership.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    Indigo said:

    Here is "A Contract between the Conservative Party and you" signed by David Cameron.

    I invite you to consider the bold text above his signature on the first page, and the text of the 5th pledge at the top of the second column on the second page. For bonus points see if you can see the word "ambition" anywhere ?

    http://i.imgur.com/E4zbZPv.jpg (Page 1)
    http://i.imgur.com/Yrk0Uqo.jpg (Page 2)

    I suppose Cameron's argument is that we didn't keep our side of the bargain by helping him!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    RobD said:

    Downgraded to an ambition in the 2015 version ;) I'm guessing it won't appear in 2020!
    But but but... its a contract signed by the PM, we are always being told by our Remainer friends that a contracttreaty is for life and not just for Christmas, doesn't this not apply to contracts on immigration as well ?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    What does this say about the 'unknown quantities'?

    'The senior law enforcement source reports that Mateen became a person of interest in 2013 and again in 2014. The Federal Bureau of Investigation at one point opened an investigation into Mateen but subsequently closed the case when it produced nothing that appeared to warrant further investigation.

    “He’s a known quantity,” the source said. “He’s been on the radar before.”'

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/12/omar-mateen-id-d-as-orlando-killer.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    F1: five place grid penalty for Sainz due to a gearbox change following his crash yesterday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Indigo said:

    But but but... its a contract signed by the PM, we are always being told by our Remainer friends that a contracttreaty is for life and not just for Christmas, doesn't this not apply to contracts on immigration as well ?
    You and I both know manifesto commitments should be treated with caution. Most will be implemented, but obviously un-implementable ones wont!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    No, he excluded season tickets and daily/weekly caps.

    That is to say, he excluded probably 90% of commuters.

    To say the public don't like it is a significant understatement.
    Oh, sorry, I only saw the story briefly. It could come back to bite him in 2021.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    rcs1000 said:

    Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
    But then, why don't we run a trade deficit with Non EU countries?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    My friend emigrated to California a while ago, he's a very liberal guy.

    Saw a man pull a gun on a theif trying to steal from an old lady.

    Now a convert to gun ownership.
    I'm sorry, I just think that is a petrol and fire approach.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    rcs1000 said:

    Our trade deficit is the consequence of having one of the lowest savings rates in the world, not our membership of the EU.
    In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?

    Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.

    So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    I'm always inclined to the mentally unstable theory. I don't think well-adjusted people are inclined to mass murder, even Moslems.

    Perhaps not but what exactly is mentally unstable? There's been a big argument about whether Anders Brevik is sane. You have suicide bombers with down syndrome. You have to look at the propaganda out there, the financing that goes on which clearly has a religious basis. Was that relevant in this instance? We don't yet know.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once.
    By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    nunu said:

    no fucking shit.
    Except it is not "clearly an act of terror". That form of words may be about gun control which one imagines will now be more prominent in the American election. The gun lobby will say terrorists are (or should be) already excluded so there is no call for restrictions on ordinary Americans.

    One imagines Hillary will call for gun control and Trump for better screening, so in practice both will really be calling for the same thing: more extensive background checks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,407
    Sean_F said:

    But then, why don't we run a trade deficit with Non EU countries?
    I think you're looking at this the wrong way around.

    Let me give you an example. Today the UK imports various petrochemicals products from the Rotterdam refinery complex. If we cut off all trade with the EU tomorrow, we'd still need those products. They'd just be imported from somewhere else in the world.

    As a country we don't have an export problem. Our exports as a percentage of GDP are much the same as any other country with 40 to 80 people.

    What is higher is our imports.

    If you stack all the countries in the world up and on the x axis you put "savings rate", and on the y axis you put "trade deficit", you'd see an almost perfect correlations. Countries with high savings rates (Germany, Switzerland, China) run trade surpluses, irrespective of their trading block. Countries with low savings rates (ourselves, the US, and Spain before the Eurozone crisis) have trade deficits.

    Leaving the EU will not - in itself - change our savings rate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    RobD said:

    They mean if we went back in time and implemented it. Still, stupid idea now, stupid idea then. Proper gun control would be a better approach, but no one wants to touch that with a barge pole.
    Indeed
  • DrFromAthDrFromAth Posts: 6


    Perhaps not but what exactly is mentally unstable? There's been a big argument about whether Anders Brevik is sane. You have suicide bombers with down syndrome. You have to look at the propaganda out there, the financing that goes on which clearly has a religious basis. Was that relevant in this instance? We don't yet know.

    Down syndrome bombers are not voluntary. Neither are 'fallen women'. Many ISIS suicide bombers are coerced.

    If you are constrained by Political Correctness, normalcy bias & cultural relativism, you will never know.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    MrsB said:

    This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once.
    By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.

    Probably because we were missing your condescension. Now we have all been patted on the head we will of course raise the standard of debate....
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    Thinking about the lessons of last year's General Election, Leave looks in the much better position. We are also, by looking at just voting intention, running the risk of repeating last year's mistakes.

    We all looked back at the polls then and said that, while the voting intention question underestimated the Conservatives' chance of a majority, the supplementary proxy questions, such as preferring David Cameron to Ed Miliband as PM, did point to a Conservative victory.

    Now look at the answers given to supplementary questions - David Cameron and George Osborne generally are scoring lower than Boris et al in questions on the EU Referendum; respondents answer that Brexit will, in likelihood, lower immigration but there is more uncertainty over the economic risks from Remain, etc etc. On the basis of the GE, that should give Remain a great amount of concern.

    What is also interesting is what seems like Remain's sudden increase in concern over the past week and whether it has been driven by insights into the postal vote trends. Cast your mind back to last year's GE - there was a very interesting article in Labour Uncut a few days before the election (http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/05/02/revealed-eds-night-time-dash-to-casa-brand-driven-by-postal-ballot-panic/) that suggested that Ed Miliband's homage to Russell Brand was driven by panic over initial postal vote estimates. At the time, there was uncertainty whether observers could really work out the tally (the consensus, from those who had experience as observers, was that you could) but, in hindsight, it looked prescient.

    I am not posting this as a pro-Brexit point, btw - I just think that Leave looks incredible value given what the data is showing.

    An excellent post.

    If older voters are more likely to vote by post there could be some sizeable Leave leads building up. This could be what has spooked Remain.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    MrsB said:

    This thread demonstrates beyond all doubt that the referendum campaign is a dialogue of the deaf. It's like having 60-odd MalcolmGs all shouting at once.
    By comparison the AV referendum stimulated a series of high quality debates.

    Nick Clegg was not afraid to get stuck in and make a case (not necessarily a good one) for remaining in the EU. Haven't seen much of your new leader Michael Fallon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,087
    edited June 2016

    In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?

    Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.

    So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
    In April 2016 the UK imported £21.9 billion from non-EU nations but exported only £13 billion. The UK exported £12 billion to EU nations and imported £19.1 billion, so on those figures we had a slightly larger deficit with non-EU nations
    https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/EU_and_Non-EU_Data.aspx
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,300
    edited June 2016
    nunu said:

    no fucking shit.

    Did you get my explanation about standard deviation the other day?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,407

    In 2015 we had an annual £100bn trade deficit with the EU, a surplus of about £10bn with the rest of the world, and you're saying that a significant reduction in the UK's volume of trade with the EU would not reduce the UK's trade deficit?

    Besides that, the existence of that £100bn trade deficit means that German firms will be petrified, because the opportunities lost to export to the UK will be far more than the opportunities gained by German firms as UK exports to Germany are scaled back.

    So Schauble's threats are utterly empty. But nonetheless it might be in the UK's interests to insist that he follows through on them.
    You do know that British firms that export to the US and China have components in their products that are imported from Germany, Italy and the rest of the EU, right?

    Global supply chains are incredibly complex. Let me give you an example of a project I was recently involved in. This was part of the solar battery stuff I've regaled many PBers with before: the company was British, final assembly was in France, solar panels came from a German module maker using US cells, batteries came from China, and battery management boards came from Wales. And design was in the UK. That project will have added to the UK balance of trade deficit with the EU, and added to its surplus with the rest of the world.

    Why would we want to f*ck ourselves in some game of brinkmanship? Post Brexit there will be no tariffs on physical goods between the EU/EEA and the UK. It's simply inconceivable, and would be disastrous for British companies and workers.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SkyNews
    Watch the full interview with former defence secretary @LiamFoxMP #Murnaghan https://t.co/5Li6NqO7ql
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Indigo said:

    Probably because we were missing your condescension. Now we have all been patted on the head we will of course raise the standard of debate....
    Good to see the LibDems bringing something to this debate though....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    rcs1000 said:

    You do know that British firms that export to the US and China have components in their products that are imported from Germany, Italy and the rest of the EU, right?

    Global supply chains are incredibly complex. Let me give you an example of a project I was recently involved in. This was part of the solar battery stuff I've regaled many PBers with before: the company was British, final assembly was in France, solar panels came from a German module maker using US cells, batteries came from China, and battery management boards came from Wales. And design was in the UK. That project will have added to the UK balance of trade deficit with the EU, and added to its surplus with the rest of the world.

    Why would we want to f*ck ourselves in some game of brinkmanship? Post Brexit there will be no tariffs on physical goods between the EU/EEA and the UK. It's simply inconceivable, and would be disastrous for British companies and workers.
    Agreed. My view is that there is little understand of tariffs even amongst actual exporters and importers, let alone politicians.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,188
    MP_SE said:

    Nick Clegg was not afraid to get stuck in and make a case (not necessarily a good one) for remaining in the EU. Haven't seen much of your new leader Michael Fallon.
    Must be really hard balancing that SoS job with leading a minor party....

    :-)
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    SkyNews
    Watch .@patel4witham says the remain campaign strategy involves "terrifying people" #Murnaghan https://t.co/XFBGcAlLUD
This discussion has been closed.